Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield, TX 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
313 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019
Rough swells from the east will create slightly adverse marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast through early in the coming week, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters between 20 and 60 nautical miles offshore. Afterwards, more favorable marine conditions are forecast featuring light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623am CDT Sunday September 22 2019
Short Term - Today Through Monday
KBRO Doppler radar shows a steady stream of isolated showers transitioning from the Gulf of Mexico to the inland areas at this time, no doubt supported by the 1.97 inches of precipitable water recorded by the Saturday evening local upper air sounding. This relatively deep tropical moisture will persist at the same time an inverted 500 mb trough continues to approach the BRO CWFA from the east. The result of this weather scenario will be isolated convection within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the forecast period. The recent trend of above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures will continue given the expected low rain chances and limited cloud cover.
For the local beaches, will allow the Coastal Flood Statement to continue until mid-morning today given the predicted astronomical tides and the observed swell moving towards the Lower Texas Coast.
Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
Across the mid-levels of the atmosphere, Deep South Texas will sit in between a 500 mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a cutoff low across the Desert Southwest to begin the long term period. Additionally, a weak inverted trough moving around the flow of the ridge will linger within our general region before eventually lifting out as the cutoff low begins to open up into a trough and progresses towards the central plains. The 500 mb ridge positioned to the east will then expand westward into the region from late in the workweek and into next weekend.
Despite the presence of the weak inverted trough over the region from early to midweek, model atmospheric profiles and time heigheights do indicate that some dry air remains within the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continues to show more pronounced dry air aloft compared to the GFS. ECMWF MOS output has continued to trend lower in regards to the probability of precipitation through midweek than the GFS MOS output. The ECMWF then becomes more in line with the GFS pops for Friday into the weekend. Elected to remain persistent with a slight chance for convection each day through the long term, with primary focus along the seabreeze each afternoon to the east of highway 281.
Above average temperatures will remain expected through the long term period despite the weakness aloft early to midweek. Expect subtle rise in temperatures and heat indices late in the week as the 500 mb ridge to the east builds back westward. With the dry air aloft on the ECMWF as noted in the previous paragraph, the model output continues to indicate warmer temperatures then the GFS solution. Like previous inherited forecasts, I will continue to go with a blend but with more of a lean closer to the warmer ECMWF output. Heat indices will peak between 100 to 105 degrees early in the period and between 105 and 110 degrees later in the period.
The tropical Atlantic basin remains active with Tropical Storm Jerry south of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Karen which recently developed near the southern windward islands and the high probability for the development of a tropical cyclone off the western African coast. The Eastern North Pacific Basin is also active with Tropical Storm Kiko, Tropical Storm Lorena and Tropical Storm Mario. This serves as a good reminder to stay prepared and keep updated with the latest tropical systems at hurricanes.gov.
Marine - Now through Monday
Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly over 5 feet with a period of 9 seconds at 150 CDT/650 UTC. Moderate swells from the east will produce Small Craft Exercise Caution along the Lower Texas Coast during the period, especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters between 20 and 60 nautical miles offshore. Otherwise, mariners can expect light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas.
Monday night through Saturday: Light to moderate south to southeast winds and moderate seas will continue due to broad surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. Anticipate at times for small craft exercise caution to near marginal small craft advisory conditions during the period. Expect isolated to scattered marine showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Any heavier cells may result in locally gusty winds and locally enhanced sea state.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories