Marine Weather Net

Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ235 Forecast Issued: 1059 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Rest Of Today...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog Late In The Morning.
Tonight...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. Patchy Fog In The Evening, Then Areas Of Fog After Midnight.
Wednesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.
Wednesday Night...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Bays Choppy To Rough.
Thursday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.
Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Friday...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting West In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Friday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Saturday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy.
Saturday Night...South Wind Around 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
223pm CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 211pm CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Elevated Fire Weather possible across western portions of S TX Friday afternoon.

- Breezy to windy Friday afternoon.

A flat/weak mid/upper level ridge across the region will maintain partly cloudy to clear skies tonight and warm temperatures Friday. The ridge will slowly drift east as an embedded short wave approaches S TX. In the lower levels and at the surface, high pressure axis currently draped from LA across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, will also slowly shift east tonight as low pressure deepens along the rockies in response to the approaching short wave. This will tighten the pressure gradient across S TX tonight through Friday, leading to strengthening south to southeast winds. The low level jet is forecast to strengthen up to 40 knots across the Brush Country and 30-35 knots across the eastern CWA. This will keep surface winds elevated through the night, as well as lead to warmer overnight temperatures and increasing dewpoints. The LLJ will mix to the surface Friday as temperatures rise, leading to breezy/windy conditions. There is a good chance (60-90%) winds will gust to 34 knots for Friday.

Despite the increasing dewpoints, the elevated winds will keep the airmass mixed, thus little to no fog is anticipated tonight nor Friday night.

Long Term
(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 211pm CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Key Messages:

- High chance (60-85%) of at least 100 degrees max temperatures Monday over the Brush Country

- Next cold front Monday night into Tuesday morning

Our next mid-level low pressure system forms off the Pacific NW this weekend, diving south parallel to the CA coast then pivots and lifts northeast towards the Great Lakes at the beginning of the long term period. Meanwhile another low forms over the Desert SW with a band of positive vorticity stretched between the two lows. The first system will bring a frontal boundary through the region Monday night through Tuesday morning. As things progress forward throughout the week, that band of positive vorticity looks to stay north of our CWA (County Warning Area) but the secondary low previously mentioned looks to traverse right across South Texas towards the latter portion of the week.

Shower activity will be limited by dry mid-levels. Monday night has a very low chance (10-14%) for some isolated showers as PWAT's (Precipitable Waters) look to trend below normal during this time (GEF's ensemble mean: 1.25") combined with a lack of forcing in the mid-levels.

Fire Wx: Elevated Fire Weather conditions are possible Tuesday (see fire weather discussion).

Temperatures: Afternoon highs will follow a warming trend until our next front on Tuesday. Widespread highs in the 80s-90s will max out Monday in the 90-100 degree range with low triple digits expected across much of the Brush Country. After the front, highs dip back to the 80s-90s Tuesday, then dip again to the 70s-80s mid-week. Overnight lows before the front range in the 60s to around 70, then dip into the mid to upper 50s.

Marine
Issued at 211pm CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Onshore flow will strengthen to moderate levels overnight. Strong south to southeast winds are expected across the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas by Friday afternoon, then across the offshore waters Friday night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Weak to moderate onshore flow will increase Sunday to moderate or moderate to strong levels. Onshore flow relaxes early Tuesday then veers to the northeast in response to a frontal boundary. Flow increases to Strong late Tuesday, then weak to moderate Wednesday. This is expected to bring Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions Saturday through Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Monday and early Wednesday. There's a very low chance around 10 to 15% for showers offshore towards the latter part of the week.

Fire Weather
Increasing moisture will keep fire weather concerns low for Friday afternoon. However, there is a good chance (60-90%) winds will gust to 34 knots for Friday and if RH values drop lower than anticipated across the Brush Country, elevated fire weather conditions may develop briefly Friday afternoon. This weekend, dry and settled conditions will accompany a moderate southeast flow. There are no fire weather concerns until after our next front on Tuesday. The front looks to be a dry boundary but with moderate to strong northerly winds behind it around 15 MPH with gusts up to 20-25 MPH. There will be low chance for a few hours Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon where gusty winds combine with low RH values around 15-20% across the Brush Country that may result elevated fire weather conditions. The remainder of the week fire weather concerns are not expected.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.