Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast
|Today...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Tonight...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
401 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019
Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through Monday. Isolated showers or thunderstorms will be possible today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Monday. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week with chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
620am CDT Sunday September 22 2019
Short Term - Today Through Monday
GOES image of total precipitable water shows values have fallen to 1.6-1.8 inches over the Gulf waters into the coastal plains this morning. Models indicate the 1000-850 mb lapse rates are not quite as steep from 6.5-7.5 degrees C per km. KCRP radar shows very isolated streamer showers early this morning. The isolated streamer showers will continue to affect the coastal plains this morning but will keep Probability of Precipitation at 20 percent. The mid level ridge will slowly build in from the northeast today with only a slim possibility of convection firing along the sea breeze over inland counties this afternoon.
The mid level ridge will drift a little to the north on Monday with a weak short wave trough moving into the lower and middle Texas coast. Models are in agreement with bringing in slightly higher moisture on Monday with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values back to around 2 inches. Expect scattered convection will form over the Gulf waters late tonight and move toward the coast Monday morning. Will raise Probability of Precipitation back to 30-40 percent range for the coastal plains Monday.
Persistent southeasterly flow will maintain swells of around 4 feet with periods around 8 seconds today through Monday. This will keep the risk for rip currents at moderate levels for Gulf facing beaches.
Tide levels continue to be elevated along the Middle Texas coast. The tides are running from around 1 foot above expected at Bob Hall Pier to around 1.5 feet at Port O'Connor. Tides reached 2.1 feet MSL at Bob Hall Pier this morning and will likely be near 2 feet MSL at Port O'Connor before daybreak. ESTOFS and PETSS show these elevated tide levels will persist through the day into tonight for the next high tide cycle. Went ahead and extended the Coastal Flood Advisory along the coast through tonight into early Monday morning.
Long Term - Monday through Saturday
An east-west oriented upper level ridge stretching from South Texas across much of the Gulf Coast will weaken slightly and shift east as starting Monday night. Following an easterly wave on Monday, drier air is expected on Tuesday with Probability of Precipitation less than 20%. An upper level trough will deepen as it moves down the West Coast early this week before stalling over northern Baja on Tuesday. Models are in good agreement with an upper level low opening up and lifting northeast across the Central Plains through Friday where it will quickly be absorbed into a longwave trough. Upper level high pressure will be re-established across the Gulf Coast and onshore flow will provide enough moisture for isolated shower and thunderstorm chances along the sea breeze through the end of the week. Temperatures will remain slightly above average, with highs from 90 to 100 degrees and lows in the 70s.
A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through Monday. Isolated streamer showers are expected this morning. The shower activity is expected to become scattered late tonight into Monday morning as deeper moisture moves back into the region. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week with chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9am CDT Monday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.