Marine Weather Net

Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ154 Forecast Issued: 924 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

This Afternoon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
927am EDT Sunday September 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure sliding offshore will bring deep southwest flow over the region through Monday. That will mean a continuation of very warm temperatures for late September. Gradually a cold front will approach Monday, bringing showers to the area into Tuesday. Cooler, but still seasonable temperatures will follow the front Tuesday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Prev Disc... Have updated the forecast based on latest observations and mesoscale models. Fog will continue to lift rapidly this morning. With H8 temperatures running +14C to +16C over southern areas this afternoon, expect surface temperatures to climb into th 80s in many areas. Coolest locations will be along the Midcoast, where a gusty southwesterly breeze will be onshore all day.

Update...All the major river valleys are fogged in this morning and will take another hour or so until fog lifts. Otherwise no major changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion...Fairly widespread valley fog...with locally dense fog in the CT River Valley...will linger thru sunrise. A very warm air mass and SW flow will help that fog lift quickly as daytime heating commences however.

Attention then turns to just how warm we get today. Given widespread readings in the 80s yesterday...I see no reason why we do not at least repeat that today. 22.00z GYX soundings showed mixing thru H8...and doing that again today would mean fairly widespread readings in the mid to upper 80s. I have increased forecast highs above guidance for the favored SW downslope areas in Srn NH and adjacent SWrn ME.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Monday
SW return flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front. I still expect the bulk of the showers to remain along that boundary and farther N near the warm front. I cannot rule out a stray shower...but overall I have slight chance Probability of Precipitation at best. Increasing cloud cover and gradient flow keeping advection going will keep min temps much warmer than past nights. Srn NH will likely see some readings struggle to fall below 65. Will have to watch for any breaks in cloud cover that could facilitate radiational cooling...as increasing low level moisture would favor fog formation.

Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
A cold front will stall to the north of New England on Monday as a new area of low pressure forms to our west. With the front lingering to the north, expect rain chances to be lower in our area especially during the morning. However, as the day goes on the new surface low tracks east along the former cold front and drags a new front in from the west Monday evening. This will provide the best chance of shower activity Monday evening into Monday night. With our area staying in the warm sector on Monday, expect highs to once again reach the low to mid 80s across the region. Some cloud cover could hold temperatures a few degrees cooler than they are today, but it will still be a warm and humid day. With the warm, humid air mass in place ahead of a cold front we can't rule out the possibility of a stray thunderstorm, however overall instability remains quite low so the threat will be fairly minimal. The front clears the coast overnight Monday night bringing any shower activity to an end.

Upper level low pressure slowly moves across the region on Tuesday. As it does so expect afternoon showers to develop especially in northern areas. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler beneath the cool upper low, with warmest temperatures in the south and coast with an offshore flow. The upper low moves east Tuesday night with showers coming to an end in the evening and high pressure nudging in from the west. With less humidity in place, we should see lows falling off into the 40s and 50s again. High pressure crosses the area on Wednesday with temperatures at their coolest... highs in the upper 60s to low 70s which is still a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

The next trough swings toward the area on Thursday, with much of the energy passing to our north. It will drag a cold front toward New England, though, along with our next chance of showers. Slightly cooler on Friday behind the front, but this cooler air won't last long as the upper ridge begins building to our west again with warm temperatures returning for the end of the week and the weekend.

Marine
Short Term
SW flow today into tonight over the waters. Went on the lower end of guidance given the warm advection over relatively colder waters. Late tonight some seas well outside the bays may build to near 5 ft.

Long Term...Southwest flow continues on Monday, though went a bit below guidance on wind speeds due to relatively poor mixing expected. Wave heigheights will be highest in the central to eastern Gulf of Maine where the fetch will be greatest. A few waves of 5 feet are possible there. Cold front moves through Monday night with an offshore flow expected Tuesday. High pressure builds in behind the front through Wednesday.

NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.