Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD Marine Forecast


REST OF THIS AFTERNOON

N
WINDS
20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ533 Forecast Issued: 435 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
Rest Of This Afternoon...N Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt... Increasing To 35 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft...Building To 4 Ft After Midnight.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 3 Ft.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt...Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 Ft... Subsiding To 1 Ft After Midnight.
Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 Kt...Becoming Ne. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Mon...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day, Then Rain Likely Through The Night.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
241pm EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
Low pressure will continue to slide by to our east today before pushing off to the northeast and strengthening on Friday. High pressure will build to our south on Friday, resulting in gusty winds over the region. Multiple upper level disturbances will pass overhead this weekend into early next week resulting in generally unsettled weather.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As low pressure slides by to our east this afternoon, some rain is still being observed over far southern Maryland, and that will likely continue through the late afternoon at this point before finally pushing off to the east. Elsewhere it is dry, though remaining cloudy east of the Blue Ridge. To the west however, substantial clearing has occurred and much lower dew points are rushing in behind the cold front that pushed through this morning. Starting to see an uptick in the winds as well out west, and that will make its way across much of the region later this afternoon into the evening.

Any remaining clouds should largely clear out by this evening. However, another shortwave will dive through the larger trough late tonight, bringing a return of some clouds and a brief period of upslope snow showers. Snow amounts should generally be less than one inch. Overnight lows will be in the 30s for most of the area (upper 20s along the higher ridges of the Allegheny Front).

Winds will sharply increase with the arrival of this next shortwave tonight. A Wind Advisory was issued for Grant, Highland, and Pendleton counties for gusts up to 50 mph. This should really pick up between 3-6am and likely continue through Friday.

Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
The aforementioned low pressure system will track toward the Canadian Maritimes on Friday as high pressure simultaneously builds to our south. A strong pressure gradient over the region will be the result, with gusty northwesterly winds expected across the area. Gusts will generally range from 30-45 mph, but could be even up to 50 mph in the mountains. As mentioned in the near term section above, Wind Advisories will continue through 8 PM Friday along the Allegheny Front. While there is some potential for Wind Advisories further east, the best certainty for now was out west. There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding the height of the inversion and how aligned the winds will be with height. Any slight deviations in either of those 2 variables could keep us just below advisory criteria. Will leave the final decision to a later forecast cycle at this time. Any lingering clouds will clear through the day, and high temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to the lower to middle 60s across Central Virginia.

Relative humidity values are expected to crash tomorrow in strong northwest flow to around 20 to 25 percent. This paired with the strong winds could lead to an elevated fire danger Friday afternoon. More on that in the fire danger section below.

Friday night should remain dry although with some increase in clouds. A thermal gradient will begin to develop across the area as warm advection begins ahead of a low pressure system in the Great Lakes. This will result in lows in the mid 30s across northeast Maryland to the lower to mid 40s across the central Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia.

This warm front will remain draped across the area through Saturday as the low tracks toward the Mid Atlantic. The track of this low and the warm frontal position will have influence on high temperatures (50s north/60s to near 70 south) as well as where the most rain falls. The highest rain chances currently stretch across the eastern West Virginia panhandle and northern Maryland. Clouds may linger Saturday night along with some rain showers along the Alleghenies. Lows will be in the 40s.

Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
A warm front lingering around the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend will bring clouds and some shower activity. Currently the greatest chance for precipitation on Sunday is along the Alleghenies, expanding eastward from there with 20-30 Probability of Precipitation but generally remaining west of I-95 during the day.

Low pressure approaches from the west Monday into Tuesday, bringing greater chances of rain for the start of the week. Guidance has trended colder after the system exits Wed/Thurs, bringing possible upslope snow along the Alleghenies to finish off the extended.

Temperatures will be well above normal Sunday with highs in the 60s to 70s outside of the mountains, and closer to normal for the start of the week (50s to 60s) as the next low pressure system moves through. Behind the system will be near to slightly below normal.

Marine
Winds have shift to north-northwesterly in the wake of this morning's cold front. A few rogue 25-30 knot gusts have been seen, but generally winds are in the 15-20 knot range at this time. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through tonight.

Winds are expected to reach gale force late tonight near southern Maryland as low pressure passes off the coast, thus a Gale Warning has been issued starting at midnight and going through 6 AM.

Winds will then increase across all waters Friday. A Gale Warning has been issued for the entire day Friday for much of the waters. Highest gusts are likely in the upper Potomac and northern/central Bay zones.

At this time, sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are most likely Friday night into Saturday night.

Winds over portions of the waters may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria during the day Sunday and Monday as a weak front and low pressure system move through the area.

Fire Weather
For today, we are starting to see RH values rapidly drop west of the Blue Ridge as much drier air moves into the region. Along with this comes gusts winds as well. Generally, RH values will drop as low as 20 to 25 percent in spots. This, paired with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph and frequently gusts up to 25 or 30 mph, has lead to and SPS for fire danger today west of the Blue Ridge. Ten hour fuel moisture is certainly moist, but the fine dead fuels are expected to dry rather rapidly this afternoon.

For Friday, there is a bit more uncertainty. While winds do increase and there is the potential for very low RHs, the exact location at this time is not certain. It is entirely possible that the worst conditions could overlap with areas that have seen substantial rain in recent days (east of the Blue Ridge and especially along the I-95 corridor). Further evaluation is needed, as well as coordination with fuel moisture experts to determine the threat on Friday. However winds are expected to be very strong, especially west of the Blue Ridge. The main question there will be how low RH values get due to some lingering cloudcover from overnight. A decision on that will be made by tomorrow morning.

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...Wind Advisory from 4am to 8pm EDT Friday for VAZ503-504. WV...Wind Advisory from 4am to 8pm EDT Friday for WVZ501-502-505- 506.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for ANZ530-531-535- 536-538>542. Gale Warning from 6am to 6pm EDT Friday for ANZ530-531-535- 536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ532>534- 537-543. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6pm EDT Friday for ANZ532-533. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EDT Friday for ANZ534- 537-543. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6am EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.