Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Showers Likely During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Saturday Night. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 648am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Synopsis A warm front will move across the area, with showers and a few thunderstorms ending across western and north central NY this morning. Dry weather will then prevail most of the time for the rest of today, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Unsettled weather will then last Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region. Near Term - Through Tonight Regional radar shows showers across western and north central NY this morning. Warm conditions with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. In fact, some places are about 20-25 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago (Tuesday morning.) Breezy, southwest winds have arrived along the Lake Erie shoreline into Buffalo with gusts 30-40mph. A stacked area of low pressure is across northern Lower Michigan this morning. A warm front extends from the northern shores of Georgian Bay to central NY, bisecting Lake Ontario while a cold front is moving into far western NY. A 40kt low level jet is across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with elevated instability across most of western and central NY. While the chance for thunderstorms is dwindling, it's still possible ahead of the cold front this morning. Well-aligned low level winds have allowed gusty winds to mix to the surface behind the cold front this morning. The warm, moist airmass across the relatively cold Lake Erie waters may result in patchy fog inland from Lake Erie through mid- morning. The warm front will move into the Lake Ontario region while a cold front continues to move across western NY this morning. This will usher in drier air and as showers and possible thunderstorms move into north central NY, activity will end from west to east across western NY this morning. The environment is less favorable east of Lake Ontario this morning so thunderstorm potential will decrease. By early afternoon, the area of low pressure will move into eastern Ontario and the warm front will be near the Saint Lawrence Valley. Mostly dry and breezy conditions will be across the forecast area. In fact, southwest winds with gusts up to 35 mph are possible across western NY. A secondary shortwave trough will move across northern NY this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly east of Lake Ontario but also along a convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. Most of the region will be post-frontal with low chances of thunderstorms, however greater instability will be just to the southeast of the forecast area and coupled with a strong wind field, there may be a few stronger storms across Oswego and Lewis counties late this afternoon into this evening. The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight and showers and any thunderstorms will diminish and move east of the region. Dry conditions are expected across the forecast area overnight. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night An elongated mid level trough will remain in place Thursday through Thursday night from the Canadian Maritimes to the Great Lakes, with an east-west oriented frontal zone stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. Latest model guidance has continued the southward trend in the frontal position, with a wave of low pressure moving east along the boundary now taking a farther south track Thursday through Thursday night. The farther south track will yield a much improved forecast for Thursday, with mainly dry weather expected through at least the first half of the day. Deeper moisture and frontogenesis will gradually increase from southwest to northeast as the frontal wave moves across PA, bringing increasing chances of showers in the afternoon for areas south of Lake Ontario. Rain chances will continue Thursday night as another wave of low pressure moves east along the front. The best chance of more widespread rain will be found from the Southern Tier into Central NY in closer proximity to deeper moisture and forcing, with rain chances trending lower for areas close to the Canadian border. Friday through Friday night, the longwave trough will continue to carve out over the eastern US as a series of shortwaves dig through the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA and height falls will maintain an area of forcing and rain downstream of the trough axis, with a weak surface low developing in response to the forcing aloft over PA and the Mid Atlantic. The GFS (Global Forecast System) continues to be the farthest north with this feature and would produce widespread rain across the region. The NAM/GEM/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) have all trended farther southeast, keeping the best chance of organized rain from the Finger Lakes into Central and Eastern NY, with lower rain chances in our region. Trended POPS and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast down for Friday through Friday night, especially for areas near the Canadian border. Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday through Friday as persistent low level northeast flow funnels cooler air out of Canada. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Overall, the pattern will remain unsettled over the weekend through early next week, although the finer synoptic scale day to day details remain uncertain. A deep mid level trough from the Great Lakes to New England over the weekend will gradually deamplify early next week, although shortwaves will continue to traverse the US/Canadian border. Saturday should start mainly dry, with one system moving east off the New England coast and the next moving through the central Great Lakes. The upstream shortwave and associated surface low will then move over or just south of the region Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with another round of showers. The trough axis will gradually move off the New England coast Sunday, with rain chances trending down from west to east. Temperatures will remain quite cool over the weekend with clouds and cool temperatures aloft. Highs both days will reach the 55-60 degree range in most areas. Monday through Tuesday another shortwave will move from the Great Lakes into New England, maintaining a chance of a few showers. Temperatures aloft will start to recover as mid level heigheights gradually rise, allowing temperatures to trend to near or a little above average by Tuesday. Marine WSW winds will then increase today, particularly across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below. Elsewhere choppy...but sub- advisory conditions can be expected. An increasingly moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters will likely produce marine layer fog this morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with visibility restrictions. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. |
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