Marine Weather Net

Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SAT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ052 Forecast Issued: 1125 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow And Rain After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.
Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft, Then 1 Foot Or Less, Then, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night. Rain Likely After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1129pm EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast tonight through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure Saturday through Monday. Another low pressure will approach the area from the south on Tuesday.

Near Term - Through Friday
11:25 PMModerate steady rain covers the central and eastern part of our region as more rain and ample moisture continues to stream north ahead of low pressure off the coast. No major adjustments needed this hour, only some minor adjustments to temps warming up Downeast and cooling down the north a degree or two.

A sub 980mb low likely to be found south of Nova Scotia by this time tomorrow night with rain continuing over far eastern zones. Will continue flood watch thru Friday evening with only one report of minor road flooding this evening down in Ellsworth. Caribou office has lost 2 inches of snow since this morning with warm air helping to erode snowpack. Will continue Dense Fog Advisory tonight with visibilities down to 1/4 miles at time over the north and west, though occasional burst of wind result in visibilities increasing to one mile at times. Not anticipating sustained winds to increase until closer to 06z. No changes needed at this time.

Prev discussion blo... A 500mb trough is rounding the base over southeastern United States this evening and will lift north along the Atlantic Seaboard tonight into tomorrow AM. Surface low pressure will develop under the trough and lift northward which will be the next slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Before that happens the moisture conveyor belt will keep the light to moderate rain going this evening with pockets of heavy downpours especially Downeast. Mainly shower activity across the North s and that might shift east over the next few hours into northeast Aroostook County. Expecting another 0.5-1.5 inches of rain over much of the area tonight before the next big slug of moisture arrives with a rapidly deepening low tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog expected tonight especially in places that have snowpack.

As the shortwave lifting north tilts negative and upper level divergence aloft increases surface convergence expect the surface low to deepen rather quickly. At the same time as the low tracks over the Gulf of Maine into New Brunswick expect temperatures to fall aloft and then to the surface resulting in rain changing to snow across the North s by daybreak. Rain will change to snow and march eastward to the rest of northern Maine and into portions of the Central Highlands. Expecting the snow to last into tomorrow evening. Generally expect 1-3 inches of wet snow with isolated higher amounts in higher terrain. Accumulations will likely be on colder surfaces and given this is falling during the day and not very heavy expecting most roadways to remain wet. N-NW winds will increase tomorrow generally 10-15mph with gusts 25-35mph.

Will continue the flood watch through tomorrow evening for all of Downeast, Central Highlands up to the Baxter region.

Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
The upper level longwave trough will gradually shift out of our area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Precip wrapping around the backside of the low will continue across most of the north down through the eastern half of the forecast area into Washington county. With northeasterly cold air advection, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across the north, and precipitation will be mostly snow, with a mix of rain down into Washington county. As the surface low continues to track further east into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday morning, precipitation rates will decrease and snow will exit the area through the late morning hours.

High pressure will begin to build into the area Saturday night through Sunday, keeping the region drier. Skies will begin to clear Saturday night, especially across the north, and with decreasing winds, temperatures could fall into the upper teens in the north. Cloud cover may hang on longer Downeast due to a disturbance well to the south of the area, keeping lows in the mid 20s. Highs on Sunday with partly to mostly clear skies will lift into the low to mid 40s Downeast and into the mid to upper 30s in the north. Though a light northeast wind will continue to advect cold air, the higher solar angle this time of the year will be enough to combat this cooler air.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
High pressure will linger through the day on Monday, before the next low pressure system approaches from the southwest. For this next storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty for how far north the low will track, which will depend on how strong the ridge of high pressure across the St. John Valley will be. 12z deterministic guidance all came in with solutions which tracked the low along the coast of Maine, bringing precipitation across the entire forecast area. The exception is the 12z run of the ECMWF, which brings the low center north of the state, but still brings precipitation through the entire region. Ensemble plots have given a range of solutions from crossing the Downeast region to tracking well south of the Gulf of Maine. The latter ensemble solution will result in no precipitation in our forecast area as the ridge of high pressure dominates. Should the low track closer to our coast however, a swath of snow may sweep across the region, with the potential for a deformation zone to set up just northwest of the low center and bring higher snowfall rates to a narrow region. The newest solution from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) may bring precipitation to the entire region, but more in the way of rain as the warm sector crosses the region.

Marine
Near Term: Expect winds to remain below 20kts through this evening but winds shifting N will rapidly become SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions tomorrow. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will become N-NW Gales tomorrow late day. Seas building 4-7ft tonight into tomorrow. Gale Warning starts at 5pm on Friday.

Short Term: A gale warning remains in place into Saturday afternoon for gusts up to 35 to 40 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft. Conditions will rapidly improve below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels into the day on Sunday and remain as such through the early part of next week.

Hydrology
Heavy rains overnight will accelerate snowmelt over the area. The snowpack is rapidly ripening, heavy rainfall and very saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However, the Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.

NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 3am EDT Friday for MEZ001>006-010. Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ004>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032.

Marine
Gale Warning from 5pm Friday to 2pm EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.