Marine Weather Net

Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ331 Forecast Issued: 544 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Rain Early, Then Slight Chance Of Rain Early This Morning.
Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.
Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning.
Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.
Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Rain.
Tue Night...E Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
545am EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Synopsis
Low pressure will deepen over the Atlantic today, tracking well east of Cape Cod then into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. A weak frontal system will pass thru the area late Saturday. A series of weak waves of low pressure will track close to the area into early next week. A deepening area of low pressure will then track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night, then slowly moves across the Northeast for the middle of next week. The associated frontal system will impact the area during this time.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Made some tweaks to probability of precipitation based on radar. Otherwise, the forecast was on track. Low pressure taking shape over the Atlantic will deepen and continue to track away from the region thru tngt. The models were in good agreement with this east of the benchmark low, so the blend was followed.

Extreme eastern areas will see the rain hang on thru 12Z before completely tapering off. NW flow will increase across the entire area thru the day with gusts around 35 mph based on a blend of the GFS (Global Forecast System) and NAM. The GFS is stronger thru the column, so gusts could max out around 40 mph if the stronger soln verifies. Steep lapse rates and subsidence should combine to produce some high based flattening cu in the afternoon. This could serve to reduce the gust potential. Peak winds aloft come in around 00Z per the GFS, but this is counterbalanced by the cooling bl. Continued breezy overnight but below wind advy expected attm.

Despite h85 temps around -4C, deep mixing produces high temps right around normal. Wind chills in the 20s most places tngt due to the winds and temps falling into the 30s.

Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
A weak frontal sys may impact the cwa late Sat and Sat ngt. The models still do not have a great handle on it, with the NBM only producing probability of precipitation around 20. The GFS remains the southern outlier when compared to the NAM and ECMWF. Probs may be a little too low in the NBM, especially because it is a light qpf event, but did not manually adjust for now with the GFS staying south.

It will continue to be windy on Sat, especially the first half of the day, then winds back to the W and weaken a bit. Still breezy though with a well mixed airmass.

Warmer temps aloft and deep mixing promotes highs above normal. Highs near 60 possible nern NJ and NYC. There is also a chance LI and southern CT overperforms the guidance significantly based on the wly flow. Did not stray from the NBM yet, but the numbers could be off by at least 5 degrees away from the immediate shore.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to the NBM/previous forecast.

A nearly zonal continues Monday and Monday night with another wave passing nearby the area.

An upper level cutoff low moving across the central portion of the country Monday will move into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. The surface low will pass north of the region, but will slow as it moves eastward, so expecting a rather extended period of precipitation through at least the middle part of next week. There are some timing and evolution differences, but overall good agreement in an unsettled period coming up. Drier weather build back into the region for the end of the week as the low departs.

The unsettled conditions and easterly flow for the first half of the week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due to cloud cover.

Marine
Gusty NW flow becoming W on Sat. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters thru Sat as a result. The winds diminish Sat night and Sun, although seas will take longer to subside on the ocean.

Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on Monday. The next chance for a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be on Tuesday and Wednesday in a strengthening easterly flow.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.