Marine Weather Net

Neuse River & Bay River Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ137 Forecast Issued: 1033 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Rest Of Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt This Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy This Afternoon. Isolated Tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy. Rain Likely With Isolated Tstms In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Sun...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Mon...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1053am EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
A coastal low will move along the Crystal Coast today, followed quickly by a cold front passage. High pressure then builds in from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage likely early next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1030am Thursday... **Coastal low to impact ENC with heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal impacts today**

Based on satellite, radar, and observations, it appears that low pressure has developed just southeast of Wilmington. The development and deepening of the low has been slower than anticipated, and so far, winds have been slower to respond. However, we still expect low pressure to deepen through the day as it pulls away from the coast. With the slower deepening noted, the stronger winds will be delayed, and it's possible that the strongest winds will be focused a little further east. I still expect a period of gusty 30-40 mph winds along the coast, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible. However, given all of the above, and with ensemble guidance trended lower with higher winds, I have opted to adjust winds down some through the remainder of the event.

Additionally, it appears that the slower-to-deepen low, plus some convective effects, have led to lower rainfall amounts thus far, especially inland of the coast. With good dynamics and lift at play, and with a continued stream of moisture advecting into the area, we'll continue to see periods of moderate rainfall rates, and possibly some minor flooding issues. However, the threat of flash flooding appears to be decreasing. For now, we'll keep the Flood Watch going so as not to confuse any messaging, as there will still be some rises on creeks and rivers, as well as ponding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. But, we may be able to cancel the Flood Watch early if recent trends hold.

Instability continues to decrease, but there will be enough for a risk of a few lightning strikes for another few hours. Given the decreasing instability, the risk of severe weather looks to remain very low through the remainder of the day.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Friday
As of 400am Wednesday... Coastal low will quickly exit off to the north and east Thursday night.

Coastal low will be located just offshore near Cape Hatteras and will be pushing further north and east while strengthening as the evening progresses. Any leftover rainfall associated with this low will finally end from west to east through Thursday night thus ending our heavy rainfall threat with just the potential for up to an additional 0.1" inches of rain to fall overnight Thursday, Winds will still remain elevated overall across ENC with NW'rly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across our inland zones and 30-45 mph across the coast and OBX overnight as the gradient tightens between the deepening low and encroaching high.

Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
As of 330am Thurs...High pressure builds in from the south on Friday and remains in place through the weekend resulting in benign weather across ENC. Next potential frontal boundary then impacts the area early to mid week next week.

Friday through Sunday
Upper level trough will be to the north and east of the Carolinas to start the period and continue to push further away while zonal flow sets up aloft on Fri and Sat before broad upper ridging extends over ENC on Sun. At the surface low pressure system that had impacted the region on Thurs will continue to move further away while a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south and west and extends over the Carolinas to start our weekend. This will bring a return to our fair weather on Fri with mo clear skies and temps getting into the mid to upper 60s inland and low 60s across the OBX.

Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level shortwave riding along this flow to our north. At the surface associated frontal boundary will be located to the north with a weak low riding E'wards along the front while surface ridging continues to extend N'wards into the Carolinas. While we expect to remain precipitation free on Sat some additional cloud cover may begin to sneak into our northern zones Sat afternoon and evening, though with breezy SW'rly surface winds and increasing low level thicknesses expecting a rather pleasant day overall with high temps getting into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, while lows remain rather warm Sat night only getting down into the mid 50s. As we step into Sunday upper ridging briefly builds overhead as a positively tilted upper trough begins to dig into the western CONUS. At the surface, ridging begins to slide off to the east while pesky surface front to our north dips slightly S'wards nearing the CWA (County Warning Area) Sunday evening with yet another weak surface low riding E'wards along the boundary, this will allow additional cloud cover to build further south across the area, though we expect to generally remain precipitation free Sunday as well. Highs get into the low 80s inland and near 70 across the OBX.

Monday through midweek next week... Upper level trough quickly pushes E'wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by midweek. Associated low and cold front also quickly march E'wards on Monday bringing our next best threat for precipitation on Tue. Front quickly pushes offshore by Wednesday with fair weather forecast to return from Wednesday onwards. Temps generally remain above average on Monday and Tuesday with near average temps forecast behind the frontal passage on Wed.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 1030am Thursday... Low pressure is slowly deepening off the coast of NC at this time, and appears to be centered SE of Wilmington. The low has been slower to deepen than forecast, and winds have been slower to increase. We still expect a period of gale-force winds as the low eventually deepens, but it appears the magnitude of winds may not be quite as high as originally forecast. With this forecast update, I've lowered winds some, but the spirit of the forecast still holds, so no changes were made to the ongoing marine headlines. If the lower wind trend holds, some of the headlines will be able to be cancelled earlier than forecast, but we'll hold off to see how the low evolves over the next few hours.

PREVIOUSMarine conditions will rapidly deteriorate through today as a coastal low tracks NE'wards and deepens Thu afternoon and evening. Winds will become N-NW'rly behind the departing coastal low and cold front and increasing rapidly with widespread 20-30 kt winds with 25-40 kt gusts found across the inland sounds and rivers Thu afternoon and evening with 25-35 kt winds with 40-45 kt gusts found across our coastal waters. Dangerous marine conditions will persist through Thursday night.

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
As of 330AM Thursday... Low pressure system that had impacted our waters on Thursday will quickly move further off to the north and east on Friday, though hazardous marine conditions will continue to persist into the weekend as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area. Current forecast suggests widespread 15-25 kt W'rly winds with gusts ranging from 25-25 kts across all waters Fri morning. This will keep a mix of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) and Gale headlines up across just about all of our waters save some of the inland rivers where SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines may have just ended. Conditions will gradually ease through the morning on Fri as the low pushes further away and ridging builds overhead allowing the gradient to relax with W'rly winds easing down to 10-20 kts by Fri evening with gusts in excess of 25 kts. Headlines then quickly drop from W to E Sat into Sunday as winds ease further with winds becoming SW'rly and decreasing down to 5-15 kts by Sunday and generally remain around these speeds through early next week. Seas start out around 6-9 ft on Fri but then quickly lower with the lighter winds on Sat down to 4-7 ft with seas forecast to fall to 2-5 ft by Sun.

Hydrology
As of 1030am Thursday... Widespread 0.50"-1.50" of rain has been observed thus far across Eastern NC, with radar estimating amounts as high as 2". The heaviest rainfall has been focused across the southwestern half of ENC, with lighter amounts up towards the Albemarle Sound and NRN OBX vicinity. These amounts have, thus far, been lower than forecast. The heaviest rain is beginning to shift offshore, with periods of light to moderate rain continuing into the late afternoon hours. With rainfall rates expected to decrease, it appears the risk of flash flooding is decreasing. However, we'll plan to keep the Flood Watch going for now as rivers and creeks will continue to respond, and there may be some lingering flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 1030am Wednesday... Winds have been slower to develop this morning, but are still expected to increase by this afternoon as low pressure deepens offshore. The one note is that the low has been slower to deepen than originally anticipated, and it's possible the magnitude of winds will end up a bit lower. The overall spirit of the forecast hasn't changed, though, and for now we still anticipate minor coastal flooding impacts for soundside locations of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands.

As the low pulls away, another round of large, breaking waves and ocean overwash will impact oceanside areas from Ocracoke north through the Northern Outer Banks. Though seas are quite a bit lower this morning, generally around 5-6 ft across the Northern Outer Banks and down towards Ocracoke., seas will rapidly increase this afternoon with long period 5-9 ft seas forecast. As a result have kept the high surf advisory in effect through Friday morning. After Friday morning aforementioned low pressure will quickly pull away from the area resulting in seas lowering down to 4-6 ft and thus ending the high surf threat.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Flood Watch until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8am EDT Friday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8pm this evening to 2pm EDT Friday for NCZ204-205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 3am EDT Friday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Friday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 2pm this afternoon to 7am EDT Friday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 2pm this afternoon to 9am EDT Friday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Gale Warning until 8am EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.