Marine Weather Net

Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ135 Forecast Issued: 926 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
Overnight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Then Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Then 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late.
Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Fri...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Showers Likely.
Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely, Then A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
920pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 920pm Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and a shallow moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar. However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10") will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% Probability of Precipitation /highest north-lowest south/.

Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of Cold Air Advection will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 4pm Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 245am Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is forecast to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.

Friday through Monday
A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase probability of precipitation and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 920pm Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this evening, and will become gusty NW'rly overnight as an upper trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Friday
As of 245am Mon...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tuesday into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Tuesday night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will gradient veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will gradient build through the day Fri, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters.

Fire Weather
As of 430pm Mon...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued for Tuesday.

Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph.

Tuesday - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph.

Wednesday - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-10 mph.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 245am Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Tuesday for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.