Sabine Lake Marine Forecast
|Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...South Winds Up To 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds Up To 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds Up To 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
405 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019
High pressure will continue to ridge west over the coastal waters through early next week, resulting in a persistent east to southeast flow. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms can be expected today, with rain chances decreasing through the early part of the week.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
650am CDT Sunday September 22 2019
For the 09/22/19 1200 UTC TAF package.
SYNOPSIS... The latest UA analysis and satellite imagery shows a large ridge aloft over the SE CONUS, with the area underneath its western periphery. In the lower levels, high pressure centered over the Carolinas was ridging swwd toward the NW Gulf coast. A modest LLJ around the SW edge of this ridge was transporting a narrow plume of deeper moisture into SE TX and SW LA, with precipitation water values near 2 inches per recent GOES TPW and LAPS PW analysis.
KLCH radar shows sctd streamer showers within this axis of moisture, extending over the western coastal waters and into SE TX and extreme SW LA. The good news is that most of this activity is light, although MRMS Precip Rate product indicates a few isolated pockets of moderate intensity rainfall (~2-3 inches per hr) just offshore. Unfortunately these showers are affecting areas that do not need any rainfall, as the region continues to recover from the catastrophic flooding a few days ago.
Looking at some of the river points across SE TX, water levels appear to have crested in many locations, although moderate to major flooding persists along the Cow Bayou near Mauriceville, and along the Pine Island Bayou from Nome to Sour Lake. Water levels along the lower Neches near Beaumont, however, are still rising, with moderate to major flooding still expected along this portion of the river.
Few changes to the forecast for the upcoming week as ridging in the lower and mid levels will more or less prevail. For today, carried chance Probability of Precipitation across SE TX where transport of deeper moisture is expected to persist. While a brief moderate to heavy shower cannot be ruled out in this area, rainfall amounts are expected to remain on the low side, with totals generally less than one half inch. Convection is expected to spread northward through the afternoon. then dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Rain chcs taper off quickly to the east, where drier air is expected to spread into the area. A slight chance of showers or an isolated storm will be possible over the western LA Parishes with little, if any, convection expected across Cntl/S Cntl LA. Outside of any showers, temperatures will be very warm, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Through the early part of the week, the ridge over the SE CONUS will migrate west, helping to curb rain chances while allowing a continuation of above normal temperatures. Although Monday September 23 is the official start of Fall, conditions will feel more like August, with no hints of cooler weather on the horizon at this time. Through the next week, overnight lows are expected to run from the upper 60s across Cntl LA to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Toward the latter part of the week, the ridge aloft will slide eastward as a trough digs over the swarning states. This will allow rain chances to increase slightly from Thursday through Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure will persist over the coastal waters through the week, resulting in a generally moderate east to southeast flow. Wind speeds today are expected to decrease as the pres gradient over the coastal waters relaxes. However, seas over the outer coastal waters east of Cameron will remain elevated through at least this morning so kept exercise caution in place for this area.
Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms can be expected today, mainly over the western coastal waters zones, with rain chances decreasing through the early part of the week.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 1pm CDT this afternoon for GMZ472-475.
Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7am CDT this morning for GMZ450-452-455-470.