South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W Around 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms.|
|Tue...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
748am EDT Sunday September 22 2019
High pressure retreats offshore today ahead of a slowly approaching cold front over the Great Lakes. The front passes through the area Monday night, followed by high pressure building in for the middle of the week. Another cold frontal passage on Thursday will be followed by yet another large area of high pressure for Friday into next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Areas fog across river valleys and the coast will dissipate this morning before 900 AM.
Deep-layered ridging along the eastern seaboard works offshore today with a gradually strengthening southerly flow and increasing humidity. It will remain unseasonably warm with another day of highs in the low to mid 80s, except in the 70s along the immediate coast. Additionally, there will be scattered cu development this afternoon due to the increasing low-level moisture and daytime heating, but still mainly sunny.
There will also be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches into this evening.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday Night
Upper flow becomes more progressive this period as a short wave trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight into Monday and then into the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Preceding the feature will be a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough that will bring showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the region late Monday afternoon and night. Instability remains marginal at best, even with falling heigheights and increasing deep-layered shear. The best chances for rain remains across Long Island and Connecticut the first half of Monday night due to increased availability of low-level moisture, and thus instability. There is no severe weather threat at this time. Rainfall amounts will generally be under a quarter inch with the highest amounts to the east.
Highs and lows will remain warm for this time of year with lows in the 60s tonight and highs in the low to mid 80s Monday. Increasing southerly flow will likely limit patchy fog development like recent nights. However, low clouds could be a factor as higher dew point air traverses the cooler waters, mainly across eastern Long Island and SE CT. Model soundings, in particular, the NAM are only hinting at it. Behind the front, temperatures will return closer to normal Tuesday and Tuesday night, but still a few degrees above normal.
Clouds will gradually increase from the west Monday afternoon as a pre-frontal trough approaches. Southerly gusts up to 25 mph will be possible in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the W-NW behind the cold front with gusts up to 20 mph on Tuesday.
There will be a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches for Monday.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
High pressure and dry conditions returning via mid level confluence/low-level subsidence on Wednesday. A more significant northern stream trough will push another cold front through on Thursday, with another large surface high building in for Saturday as heigheights rise aloft across the Eastern states.
Temps will be above normal through the period, especially on Thu ahead of the cold frontal passage, with highs mostly in the lower/mid 80s.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued for the ocean waters Monday into Monday night.
A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure departing into the western Atlantic and a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes will result in a strengthening S/SW flow. Winds and seas will gradually increase through tonight with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely on the ocean waters on Monday. Marginal conditions will exist across the bays and eastern sound. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may need to be extended into these areas later today.
An extended period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds is then possible for the ocean waters even as winds diminish on Tue, especially out east, as swells from TS Jerry begin to arrive.
Rainfall Monday night will generally be less 1/4 inch with localized higher amounts possible, especially across SE CT and eastern Long Island. Otherwise, no significant hydrologic impacts expected through next week.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.