Marine Weather Net

South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ345 Forecast Issued: 402 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Morning.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Rain.
Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.
Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain.
Tue Night...E Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
809pm EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
Coastal low pressure tracks up the Atlantic coast and passes east late tonight and into Friday. A series of weak waves of low pressure will track close to the area Saturday night into early next week. A deepening area of low pressure will then track across the Lower Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night, becoming nearly stationary across the Northeast for the middle of next week. The associated frontal system will impact the area during this time.

Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
A negatively-tilting upper trough along the eastern seaboard is allowing for the back edge of the rain, just west of the Hudson River, to edge slowly eastward. This will continue through the night with the rain not expected to exit far eastern LI/SE CT until the pre-dawn hours. Additional rainfall amounts of a few hundredths along the back edge to several tenths out east can be expected.

Northerly winds will pick up through the night as offshore low pressure deepens, with gusts to around 25 mph developing.

Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 30s for much of the area.

Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
The coastal low continues to progress further northeast into Southeast Canada with high pressure building in from the west into Friday. This will allow for gradually clearing skies during the day Friday. The tight pressure gradient over the area on Friday will also allow for gusty NW winds to develop, possibly upwards of 30-35 mph, especially near the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the low to middle 50s.

Gusty NW flow continues Friday night as weak high pressure continues to move in from the west and the strengthening low pressure to the northeast moves into Southeast Canada. Winds will begin to relax a bit late in the night and into early Saturday. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s for inland areas with temps near 40 for the NYC metro.

Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
A nearly zonal flow at the start of the period will allow for multiple waves of low pressure to track close enough to the area for chances of mainly light rain. The first of which will bring in a low chance for rain late Saturday afternoon and night, followed by weak high pressure on Sunday. Another wave passes to the south Sunday night into Monday, with another shot of weak warm advection rain. A cutoff low over the Great Basin then gets kicked eastward out into the Northern/Central Plains Monday, and then across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This will be associated with a deepening surface low that sends a warm front toward the area Monday night into Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage on Wednesday. There are differences in the globals in the timing and evolution of the energy that lifts out of the intermountain west, but there are commonalities with an overrunning rain during this time. It also looks like the area remains north of the warm front, but could come close with marginal instability and perhaps some embedded convection Tuesday night. It's too early to be too specific with the details. Digging jet energy across the Great Lakes on Wednesday leads to a closed off upper low that tracks into the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and the potential for secondary low formation in the vicinity of New England would keep clouds and low chances of precipitation into Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees above normal over the weekend with daytime highs in the mid and upper 50s, with lows in the upper 30s inland, and in the 40s at the coast. Unsettled conditions and easterly flow to start the week will result in cool, damp conditions with temperatures at or just below normal for highs, but slightly above normal for lows due to cloud cover.

Marine
Winds increase tonight as a low pressure system approaches the area from the south. Gusts will be 25-30kt over all waters tonight and through much of the day Friday so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters. While there may be an occasional gust to 35 kt on the ocean tonight, gusts will not be widespread enough to warrant a gale warning.

Strong wind gusts of up to 30 kt will be possible for all waters through Friday afternoon. Winds may increase a bit by Friday evening such that near gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean zones. A Gale Watch is in effect for 00Z Saturday through 10Z Saturday. All other waters will see SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with gusts up to 30 kt.

SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will linger on the ocean waters into Saturday behind departing low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. Elsewhere, brief SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts are possible in the morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside through the day with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely by evening. The next chance for a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be on Tuesday in a strengthening easterly flow.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for ANZ350-353-355.