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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sunday September 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.  The
National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Karen located near the southern Windward
Islands.

Satellite images show that the thunderstorm activity associated
with a strong tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of
Africa this morning is quickly becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Island should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster: Daniel Brown, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
758 AM EDT Sunday September 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC.

Active Storms
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 25.0N 66.9W at 22/0900 UTC or 450 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N- 26N between 64W-67W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 21N-27N between 62W-68W. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 11.9N 60.9W at 22/1200 UTC or 45 nm ESE of Grenada moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-14N between 56W-66W. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands today and tonight, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea by Monday morning. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Satellite images show that thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave over the west coast of Africa is quickly becoming better organized. The wave has its axis along 16/17W and S of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N-15N between 14W-23W. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Monday.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W/33W and S of 19N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N20W to 09N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 22W-27W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered off the coast of North Carolina near 35N71W. This feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong E winds over the northeastern two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico, NE of a line from the Yucatan Channel to to Freeport Texas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail farther south and west. Scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf, S Florida, and the Straits of Florida from 23N-25N between 80W-86W. An upper- level trough is over the E Gulf with upper-level diffluence over the SE Gulf, enhancing convection.

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. will dominate the Gulf waters through today. The pressure gradient will remain quite tight over the eastern Gulf through tonight, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft, highest near the Straits of Florida. New high pressure will develop across the northern Gulf by Monday and will linger through the week, causing the pressure gradient to weaken and wind and sea conditions to improve.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A 1011 mb surface low is centered north of Jamaica near 19N76W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Colombia from 11N-14N between 73W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over S Guatemala, El Salvador, W Honduras, and NW Nicaragua. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia and the SW Caribbean S of 11N mostly due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across much of the basin.

Tropical Storm Karen is near 11.9N 60.9W, 1005 mb, at 8 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Karen will move to near 15N 64W by Monday afternoon, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday, and near 24N 65W Thu morning while strengthening slightly. Meanwhile, large northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE Caribbean passages through the remainder of the weekend.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N55W to 29N64W to 27N70W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N38W. The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N14W to 29N22W to 26N34W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.

Tropical Storm Jerry near 25.0N 66.9W 1002 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry will move to 26.3N 67.6W this afternoon, 27.6N 68.0W Monday morning, 29.0N 68.3W Monday afternoon, 30.4N 68.6W Tuesday morning, and N of the area to 34.0N 65.5W Wednesday morning.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center/Hagen

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