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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.


Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is in the EAST ATLANTIC with axis extending from 13N21W to 03N21W, moving W at 10 kt within the last 12 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a very moist environment and is under a divergent flow aloft, which is supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms from 02N-09N E of 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 16N33W to 02N39W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear. However, the CIRA LPW imagery show extensive dry air in the wave environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of convection N of 8.5N. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms associated with the ITCZ are from 01N-07.5N between 33W and 47W.

A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 18N57W to inland Guyana near 06N59W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear S of 11N and is in a very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Convection has increased within the last 6 hours to scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 11N-18N between 56W and 63W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N73W to inland Colombia near 10N74W, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind shear and a deep layer dry environment that hinder deep convection at the time.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 11N16W to 09N20W to 08N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near 08N27W and continues to 08N36W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N41W and continues to 03N51W. For convection information see the tropical waves section.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends SW across the north-central and NE Gulf, thus supporting light to gentle variable winds in that region. An upper level low that was in the Bay of Campeche Saturday is now over the NW Gulf waters. Upper level divergence being generated between the low SE periphery and a broad upper ridge over the EPAC waters just S of Mexico support numerous heavy showers and tstms S of 23.5N, including the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough extends from 25N90W to 18N92W. This convective activity is also being supported by moisture inflow from tropical storm Dora located in the EPAC waters S-SW of Acapulco Mexico. Heavy showers and tstms will continue in the SW Gulf and just started in the NW basin associated with the upper low. This shower activity is forecast to continue at least through Tuesday. Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary over the southern United States will drift into the northern Gulf coast today, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf coastal waters.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms are in the far NW Caribbean associated with the rainbands of tropical storm Dora located in the EPAC waters S of Acapulco Mexico. Numerous heavy showers and tstms are over Caribbean waters between Colombia and Panama associated with the EPAC monsoon trough, which extends across Panama and connect with a 1008 mb low over Colombia. A tropical wave moves across the central basin, thus supporting fresh to near gale force winds from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W and fresh to strong between 68W and 77W. These winds are forecast to prevail through tonight. Otherwise, a tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles has started to generate isolated heavy showers and tstms across the Windward Islands and SE Caribbean waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

Discussion: Hispaniola
Scattered to isolated showers are affecting the Island today due to a tropical wave moving across Haiti. These showers are forecast to continue through Monday.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Three tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Otherwise, the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near the Azores near 37N27W.

Ramos
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