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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Saturday October 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster: Lixion Avila, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 19N45W to 09N47W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct surface and 700 mb troughs. Isolated convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 78W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There is a well defined surface trough, and a broad 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N-20N between 75W-83W.

A tropical wave is in the Gulf of Honduras along 86W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct surface and 700 mb troughs. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 86W-89W.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N20W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 32W-39W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure over the eastern U.S. extends a surface ridge into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Diffluence E of an upper level trough over Texas is enhancing scattered showers across the central Gulf between 86W-93W. An upper level ridge is over the E Gulf with axis along 82W. Strong subsidence is over north and central Florida. Expect moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds over the Gulf today as the surface ridge remains in place.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
In addition to the two tropical waves mentioned above, the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and Panama producing isolated convection. A large upper level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 19N81W with abundant moisture. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E of 72W, including Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Expect fair weather to persist in Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands today.

Discussion: Hispaniola
With a tropical wave west of the area, fair weather is expected over Hispaniola today. Fresh to strong trades are expected this weekend as high pressure builds in N of the region. Scattered showers are possible in the afternoon and evening hours.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A weakening cold front extends over the west-central Atlantic from 32N55W to 27N65W, then stationary to 26N75W. Scattered showers are within 200 nm NW of the front. Strong high pressure is centered over the Azores, and high pressure extends into the Atlantic to around 68W off the the U.S. coast west of the front. An upper level low centered in the central Atlantic near 22N42W is producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center due to upper level diffluence.

Forecaster: Dan Mundell, National Hurricane Center

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