Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds Around 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming West Late This Morning, Then Becoming Northwest This Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: West 7 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 7 Feet At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. |
| Tuesday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 6 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Rough. |
| Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: North 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And West 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds And Southwest 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 314am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 312am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 Intense squall line or quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) attendant to a strong cold front is poised to reach our SE AL & western FL Panhandle counties early this morning with isolated cells out ahead of it posing a potentially significant severe weather threat. All hazards remain possible. The QLCS will carry the biggest damaging wind threat, in addition to embedded circulations capable of dropping brief tornadoes. Any discrete to semi-discrete supercells are going to carry the greater tornado threat in terms of potential and strength, plus large hail. The most concerning locations are SE AL, adjacent counties in the FL Panhandle & SW GA, and the I-75 corridor. Potential impacts: downed trees/powerlines, power outages, damage to properties/structures. Remember the difference between a Watch (be prepared) and Warning (take action). Ensure that Do Not Disturb is disabled and WEA alerts are enabled on your phones so that any overnight Tornado Warnings can wake you. The latest storm(s) most likely arrival timing estimates are nearly the same as yesterday's: 3AM-6AM CDT - SE AL, FL Panhandle; 7AM-10AM EDT - SW GA (west of I-75), Central FL Big Bend; 9AM-12PM EDT - South-Central GA, SE FL Big Bend. It is worth noting that these projections are more complicated than normal if convection ahead of the squall line clusters enough and essentially becomes the new dominant QLCS or the original one (re)intensifies while crossing the Apalachicola-Flint River Basin. The overall severe threat ceases this afternoon with some gusty trailing showers. Strong cold frontal passage during the daytime hrs means a sharp horizontal thermal gradient with temperatures following a non- diurnal trend. Forecast highs range from mid 50s to mid 70s from NW to SE! Locations to the west are likely to experience their highs in the morning vs afternoon. Gusty winds prompt hazardous beach conditions, which is especially noteworthy given that it's Spring Break time. For tonight, strong cold-air advection prompts widespread lows in 30s and sub-freezing wind chills. A Freeze Warning goes into in effect at or just after midnight for SE AL, the FL Panhandle, and most of SW GA until mid-to-late tomorrow morning. This late-season freeze may be more impactful to agriculture than usual given the prolonged period of warm antecedent conditions that has contributed to early planting/blooming. Tuesday's highs are in the 50s under a mix of sun and upper cirrus streaming overhead. Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 312am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 Radiational cooling sets the stage for another cold night consisting of a widespread inland light freeze with some patchy frost until later Wednesday morning. Forecast lows range from upper 20s to mid 30s. Another Freeze Warning is going to be needed, but will be held off until the current one expires. Temperatures begin moderating late-week while dry conditions prevail the remainder of the forecast period thanks to surface high pressure in place. High temperatures warm back to the 70s Thursday-Friday, then jump the low-to-mid 80s Saturday-Monday away from the immediate coast. Thursday will be the last chilly morning for the foreseeable future with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Minimum temperatures rebound to the 50s this weekend. Marine Issued at 312am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 Conditions quickly deteriorate from west to east this morning ahead of a strong cold front accompanied by robust maritime convection. Occasional to frequent gale-force gusts are expected over waters west of Apalachicola, especially 20 to 60 nautical miles off the Emerald Coast. Advisory level winds and seas are expected elsewhere, including Saint Andrews Bay. Strong NW breezes persist into early Tuesday, then freshen out of the north into that afternoon. Moderate NE breezes overtake the waters on Fire Weather Issued at 312am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front sweeps through the Tri-State area today. Widespread wetting rains are expected with this system. Storm arrival time is mainly during the morning hrs from the AL Wiregrass into the Apalachicola- Flint River basin. The severe threat ends by the afternoon, but gusty showers look to linger across the region. Expect a sharp wind shift from south to SW ahead of the front to NW immediately following frontal passage. Overall gusty conditions will lead to high dispersions. A much cooler and drier airmass leads to critically low RH nearly areawide Tuesday-Wednesday, resulting in elevated fire concerns. Rain is absent for the Hydrology Issued at 312am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 The only notable rain over the next several days is through today. Forecast amounts have increased to about three-quarters of an inch to just over an inch (isolated higher). Locally heavy rain is possible, especially beneath the strongest storms and/or where any convective clustering may occur. The 0Z HREF 3-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows a 50-70% chance of exceeding 1" with local CAMs showing up to ~15% chance of 3" focused just SE of the Lower I-65 corridor. Flash flooding is not expected, though local runoff issues or ponding of water may occur if these higher amounts are realized. While this upcoming rain should be beneficial, our ongoing severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought is very unlikely to improve in the short term. Longer-term prospects are pessimistic with the CPC Day 8- 14 Precipitation Outlook as of March 15th, showing widespread 33-50% probabilities of (leaning) below-normal precipitation - valid March 23rd-29th. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Freeze Warning from 1am EDT /midnight CDT/ to 10am EDT /9am CDT/ Tuesday for FLZ007>013-016-326. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...Freeze Warning from 1am to 10am EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>158. AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9am CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT /7am CDT/ Tuesday for GMZ730-735-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT this morning for GMZ751-752- 770-772. Gale Warning from 7am this morning to 7am CDT Tuesday for GMZ751-752-770-772. |
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