Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 20 To 25 Knots In The Late Evening. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots Early In The Morning. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop.|
|Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 Knots In The Late Evening. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.|
|Sunday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
| Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700|
844 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Erratic and gusty winds with thunderstorms will be the main threat to mariners through Thursday. One round of gusty showers and storms is possible, mainly west of Apalachicola late this evening. A more widespread thunder threat will occur on Thursday as a cold front sags past the waters. The front will turn up stationary over the northeast Gulf on Thursday night and Friday, then lift back north as a warm front on Friday night and Saturday. It will reverse course and push back south as a cold front on Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure will pass by to our north on Sunday and Monday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021
A broad area of gusty stratiform rain continues to drift across the area this evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible, particularly in the western Gulf waters and Panhandle later tonight. These showers and storms should diminish in the early morning hours as another, more robust round of showers and thunderstorms approaches from the northwest in the morning.
.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]... Strong thunderstorms will be the main concern for the next 24 hours. The radar presentation of storms coming in from the west will appear to weaken over the next few hours, but entrainment of dry low-level air will enhance gust potential more than one might guess with a casual glance at radar.
Mariners and beach goers will want to watch the batch of storms that is now moving east past the mouth of the Mississippi. All day, the hourly HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) runs have been showing gust potential of 35-50 knots as theses weakening storms reach the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. Over land, gusts may not be that high, but gusts will still overperform based on a mere glance at radar or the sky.
For Thursday, storms will develop in advance of a slow-moving cold front that will sag south through the tri-state area. Storm Prediction Center has now expanded the Marginal Risk in the convective outlook to include all of our FL counties and the far southern tier of counties in Georgia. There should be plenty of instability, and there will be respectable mid-level speed shear. This should support a risk of isolated severe gusts and hail. Tornadoes are not much of a concern, given a lack of low-level shear and perhaps an elevated component to the convection. Storms will develop in place over SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle early in the morning. The front will move southeast through the day and exit Dixie County by late afternoon or early Thu evening.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]... Thursday's slow-moving cold front will drag south into the Gulf on Thursday night and turn up stationary on Friday. Here to its north, there will be a lull in rain chances from Thursday night into Friday morning.
A return of southerly flow is expected on Friday night, as low pressure starts to develop along the tail end of the front over the western Gulf. This will start to lift the eastern Gulf portion of the front back north as a warm front. Rain and thunder will start to blossom again.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
Warm front will lift north into the tri-state area on Saturday, bringing the next shot of rain and thunder as a low pressure wave ripples east past the forecast area.
In the wake of the low pressure ripple, the front will shove back south over the Gulf and the northern FL Peninsula. Our AL/GA counties will dry out nicely on Sunday, but rain may keep going over the eastern Big Bend through Monday night.
The front to our south will weaken next Tuesday and Wednesday, as upper heigheights rise modestly and flow becomes more unremarkably zonal. Even the eastern Big Bend comes up with a dry forecast by late next Wednesday.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11pm CDT this evening for Coastal Bay-South Walton.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4am CDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.