Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds In The Afternoon. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 3 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Monday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 337pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, Marine IRE WEATHER,Hydrology Near Term (Through Saturday) Issued at 214pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 A broad mid-level shortwave vorticity maxima is expected to enter the lower Mississippi valley late Saturday morning, and early Saturday afternoon. This mid level forcing combined with a weakening cold front that is expected to slowly eject southward into central Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon will lead to a scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across SE Alabama and SW Georgia in the late afternoon and early evening. Mid 60s dewpoints combined with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and a slight lower of heigheights across the region will lead to around 2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE across the region. While instability will be moderately high for the region, the amount of upper level shear will be the limiting factor. This will especially be the case as 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to be around 20-25 knots. This will keep storm mode as clusters that may lead to outflow dominant storms through the evening. With the amount of instability across the region, the potential for hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across the aforementioned regions. Given this threat for severe weather Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Initially in the morning hours, areas of fog and low stratus will once again develop across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and SE Alabama, which may limit daytime temperatures from reaching the low 90s as they were initially forecasted the last couple of days. Due to this, high temperatures were reduced to the upper 80s for much of the region. .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 214pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 Storms will be diminishing into early Sunday morning with spotty showers likely continuing into the early hours of Sunday and then into much of the afternoon Sunday. There's likely to be a lull in activity overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning as the region will be between passing upper level systems. The next system moves through during Sunday afternoon as the main front begins to pass through. The main forecast challenge for Sunday will be with temperatures, and possibly a low-end severe threat. Convection from Saturday afternoon storms will likely leave a outflow boundary that lingers. North of this boundary temperatures will be slow to recover in the afternoon, and it's likely some areas will not warm up much on the north side of this boundary thanks to cloudy/rainy conditions and cooler air advecting in from the north. Further south, away from the boundary, showers/storms will be slower to arrive so we'll likely see conditions warm up into the mid 70s to low 80s, with the warmest conditions across the southeast Big Bend. These warmer conditions, with the stronger wind shear in place could allow a isolated strong storm to develop in Florida, but warmer mid-level temperatures are likely to reduce the overall severe threat compared to what's possible on Saturday. While conditions are not likely to be this cool on Sunday, some guidance does indicate temperatures not warming up much above the low 60s across our northwest counties in southeast Alabama due to the heavy cloud cover and increase rain chances. For now, forecast temperatures across southeast Alabama are in the upper 60s, but would not be surprised if they're too high. Long Term (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 214pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 The front moves through by Monday with quiet and cool conditions prevailing through the beginning of the week. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s as the upper level trough passes through. Northwesterly flow aloft will lead to no appreciable rain chances through much of next week. With sunny skies and no significant cold air advection in the northwesterly flow, expect a quick warm up with temperatures back in the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Marine Issued at 214pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 Mostly benign boating conditions expected through early Sunday. A frontal system will bring scattered showers and storms to our marine waters, mostly on Sunday afternoon. As this front moves through a period of elevated winds and seas is likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with some period of cautionary conditions possible as winds switch to become out of the north and northeast. Quieter conditions develop for Wednesday through Friday of the upcoming week. Fire Weather Issued at 214pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 Fog and low stratus will initially develop towards the early morning hours across the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and SE Alabama Saturday morning. This fog and low stratus looks to hang around through the late morning hours prior to lifting around noon. Westerly transport winds will eventually transition to southwesterly through the afternoon hours on Saturday, while remaining around 5-10 mph. Mixing heigheights will be highest across SW Georgia where early morning fog and stratus is not expected, which will lead to slightly higher dispersions across this region. Minimum RH values will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for most interior locations, and upper 70s across coastal areas. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns on Saturday. Hydrology Issued at 214pm EDT Fri April 19 2024 Rain chances begin to increase for Saturday through Sunday night. The systems will be moving somewhat quickly with rainfall accumulations not expected to exceed 1.0 inches, although isolated higher amounts may be possible. In addition to the St Marks, Withlacoochee, and Aucilla, remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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