Baltimore Harbor & Patapsco River Marine Forecast
|Overnight...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. Isolated Showers.|
|Thu...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day. A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt...Becoming W 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
An area of low pressure will lift across the Great Lakes today. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight. An additional area of low pressure will approach the area from the south on Sunday, with high pressure building in thereafter.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Low pressure is located near St. Louis this morning. Band of warm advection precipitation is skirting northern parts of the area but won't amount to much. Beyond this, the day looks mainly dry but with lots of clouds as deep moisture will be lacking. A weak shortwave crossing the area this afternoon into early evening may help produce some isolated to widely scattered showers, with the highest chances in the mountains and near the PA border. The surface warm front may not lift northward too quickly, and areas north of US-50 may "only" reach the upper 50s/lower 60s versus approaching 70 to the south. Winds may also be slightly less gusty north of the boundary.
Speaking of winds, a strong low level jet will develop ahead of the low, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for some of our higher elevation zones. The strongest winds will mainly be confined to the ridges during the day due to relatively poorer mixing in the valleys. The trailing cold front will cross tonight, and think conditions will be favorable for some of the remaining jet core aloft to downslope into the valleys despite it being nighttime. Therefore added some zones to the Wind Advisory in the lee of the Allegheny Front. Consideration was given to adding some additional zones (namely Hampshire, Hardy, eastern Highland, central VA Blue Ridge), but confidence is lower since they will be displaced more from the strongest jet.
There won't be much precipitation with the actual front, with only a small chance of light upslope precipitation in its wake. Lows tonight will be very mild, perhaps staying in the 50s along the I-95 corridor.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
The front will stall off the southeast coast Friday and Friday night while a trough approaches from the northwest. A wave of low pressure will ride along the boundary late Friday into Friday night, with just a chance that any rain reaches southern Maryland. Light upslope snow showers may also occur ahead of the trough. Temperatures Friday remain very warm, though the cold advection will begin to be realized more by Friday night.
Saturday should be mainly dry and more seasonable as high pressure builds in. A piece of the trough will be closing off into a low in the southern US. Moisture ahead of a low developing over the southeastern US may approach late Saturday night. If it does arrive that early, it could be wintry in nature, especially closer to the mountains.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
The aforementioned upper low will lift out of the MS River Valley and towards the Carolinas on Sunday. Surface low pressure will quickly strengthen along the stalled frontal boundary along the eastern seaboard. This will most likely track to our south, as nearly all solutions paint that solution. The big question is, just how far south does it go? That question remains a bit unclear, though guidance is starting to at least come to some consensus. With most guidance lifting the upper low through the Carolinas, becoming more negatively tilted, this favors some precipitation in our area. The biggest issue for winter lovers, outside of the mountains, is the fact that this storm has trended so much slower. The air mass in place at the surface is far from what one would want to produce snowfall. This storm is going to get all of its cold air aloft from that strong cutoff upper low. A heavy band will setup somewhere northwest of the low pressure center, and this is where the best chance for snowfall would occur outside of the mountains. But even that may not be enough for areas along the I-95 corridor, as temperatures look to be well in the upper 30s to low 40s. The best chance for snowfall lies along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially at higher elevations. This matches the ensemble means at this point as well, which paint a solid stripe of accumulating snowfall in that area. Snowfall farther east can certainly not be ruled out though at this time, but probabilities just aren't looking as promising. As always, consult weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest winter weather forecast updates. This storm system, having trended slower in recent days, is still around 4 days out, so many things can change in that amount of time. As said in previous forecasts, cutoff upper lows are notoriously difficult to handle, and any small deviation in track/speed could spell big changes to the forecast.
Precipitation should be coming to an end by Monday morning at the latest. The last several runs in guidance have held pretty firm with the timing and haven't shown any further signs of a slowing trend. So, am growing increasingly confident in a mostly dry Monday, at least during the afternoon.
A southeast ridge builds in behind this system Monday through the middle of the week, which will quickly bring warmer air back to the region. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday should be well into the 50s, and perhaps even into the low 60s if some of the warmer guidance holds true.
Southeast winds will gradually become southerly today. Winds should reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by this afternoon and continue through tonight. A cold front will cross early Friday morning and shift winds to the west. At this time, the greatest chance for stronger winds behind the front is the northern half of the waters, where the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been extended through 5pm Friday.
A surge of northerly winds will likely require SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) Friday night into Saturday, with winds lessening by Saturday night.
Low pressure will slide by to the southeast Sunday and Monday. Gusty winds on the northeast side of the low will likely lead to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the duration of this time period. Gale conditions are also possible during this time period as well, particularly over the central Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A strong southerly breeze returns today, which will aid in increasing tidal anomalies. This could bring a few spots into action stage, especially at DC and in the northern Chesapeake Bay. This will be short-lived however, as winds quickly turn out of the NW on Friday and eventually out of the north by Saturday, thus dropping anomalies once again.
Well above normal temperatures are forecast across the area from today through Friday this week. It's possible several daily record highs and warm minimum records are neared.
Below is a list of daily record highs for February 10
Climate Site Feb 10 Washington-National (DCA) 68F (1960) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 63F (2001) Baltimore (BWI) 66F (1960) Martinsburg (MRB) 65F (1959) Annapolis (NAK)* 63F (1960) Hagerstown (HGR)* 62F (2001) Charlottesville (CHO)* 72F (1932)
Below is a list of daily record warm minimums February 10
Climate Site Feb 10 Washington-National (DCA) 53F (1925) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 41F (2020) Baltimore (BWI) 49F (1925) Martinsburg, WV (MRB) 40F (2020) Annapolis (NAK)* 44F (1960) Hagerstown (HGR)* 48F (1960) Charlottesville (CHO)* 49F (1925)
*records are not officially issued for these stations.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 7am EST Friday for MDZ001. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for MDZ501-502. VA...Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 7am EST Friday for VAZ503. Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 1am EST Friday for VAZ507. WV...Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 7am EST Friday for WVZ501-505. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for WVZ502>504-506.
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 5pm EST Friday for ANZ530>532-535-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 6am EST Friday for ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.