Baltimore Harbor & Patapsco River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Nw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Morning. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1008am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Synopsis A weak cold front tracks through the region today before high pressure builds in through Thursday. This area of high pressure eventually progresses offshore on Friday. A warm front pushes through Friday while a backdoor front sits north of the region over the weekend. A strong area of low pressure and the associated cold front may track toward the area early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight The early morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front sitting along the Mason-Dixon Line. Looking more closely at the mentioned cold front, surface observations to either side of the boundary indicate this is mainly a front driven by dew point differences. As this boundary sags southward, a further drying of the local air mass is expected which will facilitate in falling relative humidities. This should further be aided by deep boundary layer mixing as noted by forecast soundings. Such depictions of the future thermodynamic environment show inverted-V signatures extending up to around 825 mb. There is a lot of dry air sitting right around the top of the mixed layer which could easily be mixed down this afternoon. The current forecast closely follows the 00Z HREF minimum which has been verifying fairly well in this recent dry pattern. This supports afternoon RH values falling into the upper teens to low 20s. Additionally, the dry nature of the air mass coupled with well mixed profiles supports going with the warmest forecast guidance. The current forecast package is calling for high temperatures in the 50s with mainly upper 30s to 40s over the mountains. Given the persistent dry stretch of weather and expected increase in gusty west-northwesterly winds, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be in place today. Sustained winds are likely to range from 15 to 20 mph, accompanied by gusts pushing into the 30 to 40 mph range (highest across mountain locations). The overlap in these low humidities and dry gusty winds will be during the late morning to early evening period. As such, Red Flag Warnings have been issued for locations roughly between I-95 and the Allegheny Front. Farther east, winds and relative humidity values will be similar, but rainfall over the last couple days may limit the potential wildfires. Overall, please follow any local burn bans and adhere to typical fire safety practices. That is, safely extinguish cigarettes, avoid idling in your vehicles over dry grass, etc. Winds slowly drop off after dark with high pressure slowly moving in from the west. Broad subsidence in response to this high center will keep skies clear overnight. Forecast lows will mainly be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with low/mid 20s back over the higher terrain. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night Longwave troughing will continue to push offshore on Thursday as heigheights begin to rise over the area. Tranquil weather can be expected with surface high pressure in place. Expect mainly westerly winds with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are forecast to push into the upper 50s to low 60s. The usual cool spot will be across the Alleghenies where highs should remain in the 40s. Winds shift over to southerly late in the evening as high pressure slowly edges offshore into the coastal Atlantic Ocean. As this occurs, clouds are to increase through the night which will make for a milder night than recently. All areas should stay above freezing with most in the upper 30s to low 40s. A broad somewhat diffuse looking trough begins to eject out of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. A surge of moisture comes with a warm front which is forecast to lift across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. This shift in the pattern will help usher temperatures well into the 60s, with a couple spotty 70 degree readings around the I-64 corridor. However, this does come with increasing cloud cover and some passing rain showers. Much of this subsides after dark with mild temperatures heading into Friday night. Forecast lows hold steady in the 50s which is around 10 to 20 degrees above late March climatology. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Saturday should be quite warm and dry with highs near 80 in many places east of the Blue Ridge. Elsewhere will be in the 70s (middle to upper 60s in the mountains). A chance of showers will be introduced from northwest to southeast across the region Saturday night with unseasonably warm temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The chance for showers lingers through the day Sunday with a warm front nearby that is expected to push northwest later in the day. Showers appear to become more likely in the mountains with a chance of a thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Highs should reach the 70s widespread on Sunday. The threat for rain showers fades briefly overnight Sunday into early Monday, except for the Appalachians. More widespread showers and a couple of stronger thunderstorms redevelop later Monday morning and carry throughout the remainder of the day into Monday evening as a strong cold front pushes across the region. High temperatures should be in the 70s in all areas once again. By Monday night, as the shower and thunderstorm threat diminishes, so do the nighttime temperatures. Temperatures are expected to fall through the 70s, 60s and well into the 50s. As a matter of fact, cold and dry air will move in quickly behind the departing front to allow for some places to bottom out in the 40s. Despite a chance for rain showers to make another appearance with some mid-level energy, rain amounts should be less than Monday's event with the cold front. Temperatures will also be 15 to 20 degrees colder with highs reaching the middle 50s. These numbers are close to average for late March. Marine Small Craft Advisories have been issued across the tidal Potomac and lower Chesapeake Bay for early this morning as a surge of dry air tracks through. Otherwise, the earlier Small Craft Advisories remain in place across all waters. High pressure arriving for Thursday will yield lighter winds before ramping up again on Friday with a warm front. Depending on the caliber of the winds, some areas could approach small craft levels that day. No marine hazards Saturday and Saturday night. Small craft advisories are possible Sunday into Sunday evening. Winds southwest 10 knots gusts 15 knots Saturday and Saturday night. Winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Sunday into Sunday night. Fire Weather Gusty winds and low RH values are expected again today. RH values should be comparable to yesterday/Tuesday (min RHs in the upper teens to 20s), but winds will be even stronger (sustained winds 15-20 mph, with gusts of 25-35 mph). As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for roughly between I-95 and the Allegheny Front. Areas to the east of the Red Flag Warning received wetting rains over the last couple days, which should act to limit the threat for wildfire spread in those locations. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Red Flag Warning until 7pm EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for MDZ008. Red Flag Warning until 7pm EDT this evening for MDZ003>006- 011-502>508. VA...Red Flag Warning until 7pm EDT this evening for VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053-054-501-502-504>508-526-527. WV...Red Flag Warning until 7pm EDT this evening for WVZ050>053- 055-502-504-506. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for ANZ530>532- 538>541. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for ANZ533-534- 537-542-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ535- 536. |
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