Baltimore Harbor & Patapsco River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. Scattered Showers And Tstms Late This Evening. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 931pm EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have continued to cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watches as convective activity exits off to the east. In the wake, the biggest uncertainty is whether any residual activity fires up overnight if elevated instability remains. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Hot and humid conditions persist through Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. - 2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into next week as a cold front moves through the region. KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions persist through Friday with a daily threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. With robust instability and ample downdraft CAPE in the atmosphere, the upstream convection that emanated from the Ohio Valley has cleared a bulk of the region. A slew of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue over far northeastern Maryland down along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Additionally, another warning continues near the Northern Neck of Virginia. The associated storms will all exit within the next 30 to 60 minutes which should yield a quieter night ahead. However, if any elevated instability remains, a Probability of Precipitation up shower or even a rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. Heat and humidity lingers Friday, and unless there is a lot of morning cloud cover it looks to be a bit hotter. There is the potential for a bit more mixing down of lower dew points given lingering westerly flow, but heat index values likely approach 100 to 105 again in the afternoon. For now, have highlighted the same areas in a Heat Advisory for tomorrow as was highlighted today. Could see an expansion west being possible, but given the potential for lower dew points compared to today, this was a good first stab at it, and will allow further shifts to make a final call on the westward extent. However, as always, just because an advisory may not be in effect for all areas, it will be very hot/humid either way, so all should take proper precautions once again. Stronger forcing associated with an upper trough glancing by to the northwest and an approaching cold front lends to higher certainty of more numerous thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Flow aloft will tick up slightly, though still modest and out of the W to WNW. There is some concern with the amount of spread amongst the model guidance as to where the best coverage is. Many of the hi-res models thus far keep convection suppressed to the south, likely due to that westerly flow aloft potentially stifling convection. However, with abundant instability in place once again, am thinking that storms may once again develop as they move east of the I-81/Blue Ridge corridor as they run into the most favorable airmass. Given the amount of instability in place once again, thunderstorms may produce some rather gusty winds. Severe/damaging wind gusts are plausible, especially with the added forcing that should help force storms into bands. Isolated large hail is possible with the most intense updrafts, and again could see the potential for some significant wind gusts. Thunderstorm activity should wind down by the evening hours. Following the Friday night cold frontal passage, high pressure will briefly pivot over the Mid-Atlantic for Saturday. This results in notably lower humidity and temperatures several degrees cooler (relatively speaking) as well. More sun than clouds amid light northwest breezes are expected. Temperatures falling into the 60s Saturday night with dew points around 60 will feel like a stark contrast to the more oppressive humidity in the preceding couple of days/nights. KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into next week as a cold front moves through the region. A deep upper-level trough will form over the Great Lakes towards the end of the weekend, resulting in a cold front that will track through the East Coast between late Sunday and going into Monday. There are a couple of ML models that show a severe risk for this front, bringing back severe chances after a brief pause on Saturday. Once this cold front moves through, we could begin to see a brief dip in temperatures, with highs for Monday currently ranging largely in the 80s. Although the low pressure system associated with this front will push north by late Monday, another area of low pressure could build towards the south and push north on Tuesday, bringing additional chances for rain and showers. By this point, severe chances become much more uncertain as instability looks modest, but shear will increase. Overall, expect a repeating pattern of frontal boundaries tracking through the region bringing several opportunities for precipitation. Marine Generally light west to southwest winds are expected through Friday, becoming northwest Friday night through Saturday. There is a potential of at least brief near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions behind a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Ahead of this front, potential showers and thunderstorms bring a risk of lightning and strong winds to the waters on Friday afternoon/evening. This will likely support the need of Special Marine Warnings, with 50+ knot winds possible in any storms. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed Sunday evening with gusts up to 20 knots possible, but should go back below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds by Monday morning. Southwest winds shift northerly Monday afternoon before shifting southeast. Climate Temperatures are expected to soar to as much as 15 to 20 degrees above average through Friday. This approaches or exceeds daily record values at some sites. Below is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for June 11th and 12th (Thursday and Friday). ================================================================= June 11th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 101 F (set in 1911) 74 F (set in 2020 +6 others) IAD 95 F (set in 2016) 72 F (set in 2005) BWI 99 F (set in 1911) 75 F (set in 1914) DMH 100 F (set in 1984) 79 F (set in 1984) NAK 96 F (set in 2000) 79 F (set in 1973) HGR 97 F (set in 1911) 73 F (set in 2005) MRB 101 F (set in 1911) 71 F (set in 1927 and 1922) CHO 99 F (set in 1911) 76 F (set in 2020) ================================================================= June 12th Record Daily Highs and Warm Lows ================================================================= Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 95 F (set in 2017 +6 others) 77 F (set in 2015) IAD 96 F (set in 1986) 72 F (set in 1986) BWI 96 F (set in 1986 and 1914) 77 F (set in 1947) DMH 96 F (set in 2025 +2 others) 77 F (set in 2017 and 2015) NAK 98 F (set in 1914) 77 F (set in 2000 and 1973) HGR 92 F (set in 2017 +5 others) 71 F (set in 2010 +5 others) MRB 97 F (set in 1938 and 1933) 73 F (set in 1914) CHO 98 F (set in 1914) 72 F (set in 1947 +2 others) NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC... Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Friday for DCZ001. MD... Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Friday for MDZ008-011-013- 014-016>018-508. VA... Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Friday for VAZ054-057. WV...None. Marine Heat Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Friday for ANZ530. |
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