Baltimore Harbor & Patapsco River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of The Overnight...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Today...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt...Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt... Becoming W With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359am EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have expanded Wind Advisories across the Shenandoah Valley given forecast gusts to around 50 mph. Additionally, upgraded to High Wind Warnings along western sections of Grant, Pendleton, and Highland counties given gusts to 60 mph. Otherwise, brief gales look possible this afternoon, but low-level mixing might be limited given milder air on top of the colder waters. Monday's convective forecast remains uncertain, but this seasonably strong trough still looks to bring a myriad of hazards to the region. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Increasingly gusty winds expected late this morning through early Saturday. - 2) Another strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly gusty winds expected late this morning through early Saturday. After an active last 36 hours which featured severe thunderstorms, accumulating mid-March snows, and rapid temperature falls, the story today will be the gusty southwesterly winds. Initially, surface high pressure will over the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, an occluded frontal system currently over the Midwest will help usher a warm front toward the area today. As this trough advances eastward, another robust wind field overspreads the local area. The 00Z NAM indicates 925-850 mb winds will be in the 35 to 50 knot range. While southwesterly winds are not typically conducive to intense vertical mixing, forecast soundings do show ample opportunity for downward momentum transfer, particularly during peak heating. The inherited Wind Advisories have been expanded eastward to the Blue Ridge Mountains. Further, in collaboration with neighboring forecast offices, have upgraded to High Wind Warnings across western portions of Grant, Pendleton, and Highland counties. Opted to maintain the 11am start time for all hazardous wind products as nocturnal inversions might be slow to mix out. Once the stable layer erodes, ample convective mixing is likely as the mentioned trough approaches from the west. Further east, breezy winds are expected but should stay below advisory thresholds (46 mph). A dry cold front crosses the area tonight which brings an uptick in west-northwesterly winds into the first half of Saturday. A number of the global and high-resolution models keep the strongest winds north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Otherwise, the pattern through Saturday remains dry with high temperatures in the 50s (mainly 40s across the mountains). Any chances for precipitation hold off until late in the weekend in response to the next system (see Key Message 2). KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one tonight which will result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given favorable wind speeds aloft and modest instability for mid-March, there is a noteworthy threat for severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time with a QLCS of sorts favored in nearly all extended guidance. While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. Storm Prediction Center has a 15% contour on Day 4, which is not super common in the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous AI and ML guidance continue to paint a moderate to high end ceiling for damaging winds with this frontal passage on Monday as well. Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment. Afterwards, longwave trough pattern will establish across the East with strong surface high pressure settling in keeping a much colder than normal pattern for the middle to second half of next week. Marine With high pressure stretching northward to the Mid-Atlantic states, winds have significantly dropped off early this morning. However, this break will be short lived as a strong upper trough approaches from the west. Small Craft Advisories go into effect across all waters at 10am this morning and continue until 4 AM Saturday. While southwesterly winds are not typically conducive to strengthening gusts, BUFKIT soundings down show some of the 30 to 35 knot winds mixing down to the surface, particularly around 17-22Z. The other limiting factor is the air temperature will be milder than the water surface. This would support stable temperature inversions. For now will maintain Small Craft Advisories, but an upgrade to Gale Warnings in that 17-22Z window is possible. Advisory caliber winds are possible on Saturday morning, especially over the northern Chesapeake Bay. Gradients weaken for the second half of Saturday into Sunday morning. However, another ramp up is likely as winds turn southeasterly. Small Craft Advisories may be needed from Sunday afternoon/evening through the night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions ahead of cold front Monday. Gale conditions are possible behind the front. Severe convection may also be an issue which may yield Special Marine Warnings for some storms. Fire Weather Today and Saturday look slightly concerning in regards to fire weather, although fuel moisture will be a limiting factor. Except for some isolated areas in the Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands, most of the area will have received a quarter to half inch of precipitation over the past couple of days. This wetting rain should help quell a more widespread issue. With that said, a dry frontal system will be approaching the region today before moving through tonight. Ahead of that, very strong south to southwesterly winds pick up. The air mass will be extremely dry, and could be locally enhanced in downslope flow west of the Blue Ridge. Current forecast has mid to upper 20s RHs in the typical drier valleys. Saturday may actually be the driest day, behind the frontal passage from tonight. RH values could drop into the upper teens to 20s across much of the area. Winds will be on the decline, but will remain somewhat elevated, especially along/north of the interstate 66 corridor, where 15-25 mph wind gusts can be expected. Gusty winds but increasing RHs are forecast Sunday ahead of another front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night. There is less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow (20-30 mph gusts). Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Monday before strong west-northwesterly winds overspread the area Monday evening into Tuesday. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 4am EDT Saturday for MDZ008. Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 2am EDT Saturday for MDZ501-509-510. Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for MDZ502. VA...Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ025>031-504. High Wind Warning from 11am this morning to 2am EDT Saturday for VAZ503. High Wind Warning from 10am Saturday to 2am EDT Sunday for VAZ503. Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 11pm EDT this evening for VAZ507-508. WV...Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 2am EDT Saturday for WVZ503. Wind Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506. High Wind Warning from 11am this morning to 2am EDT Saturday for WVZ501-505. High Wind Warning from 10am Saturday to 2am EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 4am EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. |
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