Baltimore Harbor & Patapsco River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Fri...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
944am EDT Wednesday September 23 2020
High pressure will weaken and move south of the area through tonight, then move offshore Thursday into Friday. The remnants of Beta will likely pass to the south while weakening Friday into Saturday. A couple cold fronts are expected to approach from the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley late in the weekend into early next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
High pressure centered over the southern Appalachian Mountains will will slide eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean by Thursday morning. Winds will be westerly and warm advection should prevail. Smoke aloft may reduce insolation, but the smoke is very thin (and thinning further). Warming should be adequate to allow temps to reach around 80 in much of the region. Lows tonight will remain mild, with 50s common.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
High pressure will continue sliding east into the Atlantic Thursday. Temps will remain warm, but with a bit more cloud cover as Beta approaches, they may be a little lower than today. Lows Thursday night likely remain mild, with 50s common.
Things are looking a bit less pleasant for the end of the work week. While many models continue to keep the rain from Beta's remnants mostly south of the region, it is notable that the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has crept northward significantly, bringing steady rain across the CWA later Friday into Friday evening. Therefore, have added some chance probability of precipitation up to the I-95 corridor Friday into Friday night, with slight chance probability of precipitation further northwest. Highs Friday will depend greatly on how far north the rain gets, with a wetter solution likely being cooler than our forecast of upper 70s. Will continue to monitor.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
By early Saturday, the remnants of of Beta will likely be moving offshore, as guidance seems to be trending a little bit earlier over the past few model runs. High pressure will located over the western Atlantic, leading to a southerly flow over the region at the low-levels. This will lead to a continued surge of moisture into the region, and continued shower chances. Will be lowering POPs on Saturday though, as the main feature will have moved offshore pretty early in the day. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 70s to near 80, with dew points in the mid 60s. So, it will also feel a little more humid as well.
Sunday into early next week remains somewhat uncertain in regards to the exact timing of the next two weather features. There will be 2 cold front passages between Sunday and early Wednesday. The first looks to be late Sunday, as a shortwave passes by to our north through the Great Lakes and into the northeast. Still going to maintain the current forecast for POPs and thunder on Sunday, but do think that the best upper-level energy could be just to our north. Some guidance keeps us mostly dry in our forecast area, so still some uncertainty there. For Monday and Tuesday, a much stronger shortwave will move out of central Canada into the northern Plains and then over the Great Lakes by late Tuesday. This will drag a much stronger cold front through the area sometime late Tuesday. Between these two features, expect a lull in activity, so will likely come down a little on POPs for Monday afternoon and early Tuesday. Temps will gradually be on the decrease through Tuesday, with highs dropping into the low to mid 70s by Tuesday.
Cooler air will arrive in the wake of this frontal boundary by mid-late week, as a deep trough builds over the eastern CONUS.
High pressure pushing south of the waters should allow flow to relax through Thursday. Southerly to easterly flow may briefly intensify later Thursday into Friday as the remnants of Beta approach from the southwest. It remains unclear as to whether gusts may reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria as Beta passes.
Could see some gusty winds early Saturday as Beta exits off the east coast, but looks to most likely stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. This will continue throughout the day on Saturday and Sunday, as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and a cold front approaches from the west on Sunday, leading to continued southerly flow.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Widespread anomalies of around 1 foot remain across the tidal waters at this time. This will bring many sites to action stage at least through today, with the most sensitive sites possibly reaching minor again on the late day high tide. The early high tide is the lower of the two astronomically, and is not expected to reach minor at any locale.
Anomalies may be slow to drop over the next few days as flow will weaken and a significant push of water out of the bay may be difficult to come by.
The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D remains out of service until further notice. The outage is due to a failure within the Radar Data Acquisition Functional Area that occurred early in the morning on September 20, 2020.
Technicians from the National Weather Service Radar Operations Center will arrive in Sterling on Saturday, September 26, to diagnose the failure. At that time, they will determine the full scope of the failure, and work with WFO Sterling electronics program staff in taking subsequent maintenance actions. Action and diagnosis includes repairing the gear box and assessing the health of the bull- gear.
Users of KLWX can utilize adjacent weather radars located in Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), and Wakefield VA
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.