Marine Weather Net

Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ376 Forecast Issued: 841 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
Tonight...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds, Nw 7 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 16 Seconds.
Thu...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds, Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 16 Seconds.
Thu Night...Nw Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds, Nw 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Fri...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds, Nw 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 15 Seconds.
Fri Night...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.
Sat...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Sat Night...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Sun...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds, Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 14 Seconds.
Sun Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 4 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Mon...Nw Wind Around 10 Kt. Seas 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Nw 4 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Mon Night...Nw Wind Around 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
904pm PDT Wednesday May 22 2024

Winds have dropped below advisory conditions this evening in Lake County, where our Wind Advisory has been allowed to end. Winds throughout the region have begun to calm, though some mild breeziness can be expected for the next hour or so. Conditions will calm fairly rapidly overnight as the upper level disturbance moves out of the PNW and a weak ridge builds in behind it. The air behind this is quite dry, and observations this evening show low dewpoints. With stable conditions aloft and dry air, radiational cooling will be quite efficient tonight and low temperatures early Thursday morning will be quite cool for the time of year. In other words, the frost advisory in parts of the Illinois, Applegate, and northern Rogue valleys for early Thursday morning looks to be on track this evening. For more details, please see the previous discussion below. -CSP

Marine
Updated 900pm Wednesday, May 22, 2024...Conditions hazardous to small craft will continue through Wednesday evening then seas and winds lower overnight. Conditions improve under high pressure Thursday with gusty north winds developing nearshore south of Cape Blanco in the afternoon. Another low pressure Friday brings light rain, then fair weather and benign winds and seas are expected through the weekend.

/Issued 251pm PDT Wednesday May 22 2024/

An upper level low pressure system has moved past the area, but northwest flow behind the system will guide conditions this evening. A Wind Advisory will continue until 8pm tonight for most of Lake County tonight to address gusty winds associated with this system. This flow will also bring cooler nighttime temperatures, with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s east of the Cascades and in the low 30s to low 40s west of the Cascades. A Frost Advisory is in place for Thursday morning between 3am and 8 AM for the Illinois and Applegate valleys as well as areas around Rogue River and between White City and Shady Cove.

The pattern looks to remain active but unimpactful into next week. A weak ridge will bring seasonal warmth on Thursday and a weak trough will follow, lingering over the area to start the weekend. will cool temperatures again on Friday. The trough will bring slight precipitation chances over the Cascades (25-50%) from Friday evening to Saturday evening. And for Friday evening, upper level instability supports slight (10-15%) chances for thunderstorms over Lake, Modoc, and eastern Klamath and Siskiyou counties. A more resilient upper ridge follows on Sunday, bringing above average temperatures across the area into the middle of next week. Next Wednesday's daytime highs will reach the mid 60s along the Oregon coast and low to mid 80s in west side valleys. Areas east of the Cascades are expected to reach the mid to high 70s. Considering Brookings specifically, models show periods of easterly winds that may cause a Chetco Effect and bring higher than forecast temperatures, but that much detail is difficult to determine with any confidence this far out.

There is substantial uncertainty in the forecast past next Wednesday. Both the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS (Global Forecast System) models show the ridge moving east with an upper trough related to a low pressure system bringing more cool weather and scattered precipitation. The timing on this pattern change varies by about 12 hours, with the ECMWF having the trough arrive late Tuesday morning while the GFS expects a Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning arrival. This uncertainty is also reflected in NBM statistical guidance. For Thursday, the interquartile range for Medford's high temperature (25th through 75th ensemble percentile) is 72 to 88 degrees, and then 75 to 93 degrees next Friday. This indicated a fairly large degree of uncertainty. Long-term precipitation meteograms for both models show a similar lack of confidence in a single outcome. This disagreement grows into the end of next week, with ECMWF deterministic imagery showing a developing ridge while the GFS brings a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. -TAD

AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs...Gusty northwest winds will impact Medford and Klamath Falls through early this evening then fairly quiet and non-impactful aviation conditions are on tap through Thursday. Stavish

Marine
Updated 230pm Wednesday, May 22, 2024...Conditions hazardous to small craft will continue through the evening then seas and winds lower overnight. Conditions improve under high pressure Thursday with some gusty north winds developing nearshore south of Cape Blanco in the afternoon. Another low pressure Friday brings some light rain, then fair weather and benign winds and seas are expected through the weekend.

with

NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Frost Advisory from 3am to 8am PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.