Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves W 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell W 13 To 15 Ft At 13 Seconds. Showers And Chance Of Tstms.
|Tonight...Northern Portion, W Wind 10 To 20 Kt...Rising To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Southern Portion, W Wind 15 To 25 Kt. Wind Waves W 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell W 11 To 12 Ft At 12 Seconds. Showers Likely And Chance Of Tstms.
|Sun...W Wind 10 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves W 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell W 11 Ft At 12 Seconds. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Tstms.
|Sun Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt...Backing To Sw After Midnight. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell W 10 To 11 Ft At 11 Seconds. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms.
|Mon...Northern Portion, S Wind 15 Kt...Veering To Sw In The Afternoon. Southern Portion, S Wind 15 To 20 Kt...Rising To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Sw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell W 8 To 9 Ft At 10 Seconds...Subsiding To W 7 Ft At 10 Seconds In The Afternoon. Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon.
|Mon Night...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt...Veering To N After Midnight. Wind Waves Sw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. Swell Nw 6 Ft At 9 Seconds And Nw 3 Ft At 15 Seconds...Shifting To The W 5 Ft At 9 Seconds After Midnight. Rain Likely.
|Tue...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. W Swell 5 Ft At 9 Seconds...Becoming W 5 Ft At 13 Seconds.
|Wed...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves N 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. W Swell 4 To 5 Ft At 12 Seconds.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
241am PST Sat Mar 2 2024
Today through Sunday...Showers continue to stream across the region early this morning, with snow level fluctuating between 1000 and 1500 feet, with localized snow levels down to 500 feet, depending on the intensity of showers and various colder microclimates within the forecast area. Several lightning strikes have been recorded offshore and along the immediate coast over the last several hours, illustrating the intensity and strong dynamics of the shortwave passing overhead. With these lower snow levels and the widespread nature of the showers, this morning remains the best window for accumulating snow on valley floors. The showery nature of the pattern and the varying intensity of the showers themselves make it challenging to pinpoint exact amounts over valley floors, but it won't take much to create hazardous driving conditions. We do expect snow levels to bottom out around 400 ft, but with snow levels that low, it's not out of the question for a heavier shower to drop snow levels down the beaches at times, although snow is unlikely to stick to the warmer road surfaces there. Outside of the lower elevations, snow will continue to pile up in the mountains and all area passes will continue to be affected through today. Driving in the region will continue to be quite challenging and should be avoided if possible. A number of winter weather headlines are in effect for this winter storm and details can be found at WSWMFR.
The cold and wet pattern under large-scale troughing continues into Sunday, with another axis of vorticity pushing into the forecast region. Snow levels should be on the increase and slightly warmer compared to Saturday. We'll continue to see snow impacts across the region with a briefly lull Sunday night before even more snow falls on Monday. -Smith/BR-y/BPN
Long Term(Monday 3/4 through Friday 3/8)...The active pattern continues into early next week as an upper level trough remains over the region and additional disturbances bring moisture into the area. This will bring the potential for additional snow impacts to the area on Monday. Then expect a relative break in the weather by late Tuesday and Wednesday. This is followed by more active weather late in the week into next weekend.
The main forecast concern for Monday is with the position of the trough along with the track and strength of a disturbance coming in from the west. The majority (90%) of the GEFS solutions support a deeper and continued cold upper trough over the area with a shortwave moving down around the base of the trough. Then further west a frontal system approaches remains just south of the area as it moves inland. This pattern would result in light to moderate showers across the area while the deeper moisture remains just to the south on Monday. In contrast, the majority (85%)of the EC ensemble solutions and about 10% of the GEFS ensemble members, favor a wetter solution with the upper trough positioned slightly further north and a low moving in from the west bringing a front and additional moisture into the area Monday. This would result in more rain and snow across the area. Both solutions favor snow levels rising during the day Monday, starting out around 1000 to 2000 feet Monday morning then rising to between 2000 to 4500 feet Monday afternoon. The majority of the GEFS solutions favor lower snow levels but favor lighter rain and snow amounts, with limited to moderate impacts from snow showers over the area. Meanwhile, the EC solutions favor snow levels rising higher and quicker on Monday but indicate more rain and snow amounts with highest impacts from snow over the higher terrain. Given the wide spread of model solutions, we will continue to monitor this period and update as confidence increases in the pattern.
Showers are expected to linter into Tuesday. Then, the GEFS and EC ensembles support decreasing chances for precipitation Tuesday night, and moreso, on Wednesday when a weak ridge may nudge into the area.
Late in the week, two additional fronts are forecast to move into the region. The first of these, around Thursday, may be weak with mainly light rain and mountain snow. Then, late Friday an upper trough and frontal system approach from the northwest, moving into the region late Friday into next weekend with additional rain and snow over the area.
Updated 200am Saturday March 02, 2024...A small craft advisory will remain in effect through this weekend with slowly diminishing high and steep seas. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will also continue through the weekend with associated gusts to 30 kt/at advisory strength expected. Seas are likely to become moderate Monday while chances of showers and thunderstorms continue. Conditions are expected to improve into early Tuesday, then north winds are likely to increase. Winds may reach advisory strength south of Cape Blanco later Tuesday into Wednesday. -DW
NOAA Medford OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning for ORZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST this morning below 1000 feet for ORZ021.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST this morning above 1000 feet for ORZ022.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning above 2000 feet for ORZ023.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm PST Sunday above 4500 feet for ORZ023-025-026.
Winter Storm Warning until 4pm PST Sunday for ORZ024.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST this morning for ORZ024.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning above 2500 feet for ORZ025-026.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning for ORZ027- 028.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10am this morning to 4pm PST Sunday for ORZ027-028.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning for ORZ029- 030.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4pm PST Sunday above 3500 feet for CAZ080.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning above 3500 feet for CAZ081.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST this morning for CAZ081.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning for CAZ082- 083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10am this morning to 4pm PST Sunday above 4500 feet for CAZ082-083-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST this morning for CAZ084- 085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4am PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.