Cape Blanco OR to Point St. George CA from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Nw Swell 9 To 11 Ft At 13 Seconds...Building To 11 To 12 Ft At 14 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Fri...Nw Wind 10 To 20 Kt...Rising To 15 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft...Building To 5 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 17 To 18 Ft At 16 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Day.|
|Fri Night...Nw Wind 15 To 25 Kt...Becoming 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Wind Waves 5 To 7 Ft. Nw Swell 16 Ft At 14 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Sat...N Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Wind Waves 5 To 6 Ft. Nw Swell 13 To 14 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt Northern Portion And N 20 To 25 Kt Southern Portion. Wind Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 12 Ft... Subsiding To 10 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sun...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt Northern Portion And N 15 To 20 Kt Southern Portion. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 8 To 9 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Northern Portion, N Wind 15 Kt...Backing To Sw After Midnight. Southern Portion, N Wind 20 Kt...Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 6 To 7 Ft. Slight Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...W Wind 15 To 20 Kt...Veering To Nw 25 Kt In The Evening, Then...Becoming N After Midnight. Wind Waves 3 To 4 Ft...Building To 4 To 5 Ft. Nw Swell 7 Ft...Building To 10 Ft And Sw 1 Ft.|
|Tue...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft... Becoming 2 Ft Or Less. Nw Swell 11 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Medford OR
902pm PST Thu Feb 25 2021
Showers will increase and work their way farther south and east through the night. Clearing , mostly south of the Umpqua Divide, and east of the Cascades, will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to lower 30s west of the Cascades, and into the lower 20s to upper teens east of the Cascades before the increased cloud cover moves in. Gusty winds over portions of the east side will increase in the morning, and a wind advisory continues with some areas reaching High Wind Warning speeds tomorrow. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this evening. Sven
Updated 800pm PST Thursday 25 Feb 2021...The forecast was updated to extend the Small Craft Advisory through Saturday night with higher confidence in lingering northwest swell.
The main concern remains an increasing long period swell overnight into Friday as a front moves through the waters Friday morning. The general consensus is for the heaviest swell to move into the waters Friday morning and remain near a peak into late afternoon. Seas will be highest north and northwest of Port Orford with seas peaking at 16 to 20 feet at 16 to 17 seconds. This will result in hazardous seas and dangerous bar crossings. High and steep seas of 13 to 16 feet at 16 seconds are expected south of Port Orford. High surf will be a concern on Friday as well. Current forecasts show surf between 20 and 25 feet late this evening through Friday afternoon and a High Surf Advisory remains in effect. Please see CFWMFR for more details.
Seas will gradually diminish but remain high and steep Friday night into Saturday night, due to a combination of a moderate northwest swell and choppy seas due to northwest winds. On Saturday, Winds will shift from northwest to north with speeds diminishing over much of the waters, though remaining gusty and at advisory strength into the evening south of Gold Beach. This will be due to high pressure building offshore and a thermal trough developing along the south Oregon coast. For details on all the marine hazards, please see MWWMFR for more details.
North winds will gradually lower Saturday night with diminishing seas expected into Monday morning as the offshore high weakens and a low approaches the offshore waters. This low is likely to bring an increase of winds and seas Monday night into Tuesday. -DW.
Updated Aviation and Marine Discussion.
SHORT TERM... Snow and wind are the two main talking points over our forecast area during the next 24 to 48 hours. First for this afternoon, look for a slight chance for rain and snow around Douglas and Coos Counties. The precipitation is really struggling to move farther south towards California based on what radar and satellite is currently showing. Model data confirms this pattern as most of the precipitation should be centered farther north through most of tonight.
As for the winds currently being observed right now, Summer Lake and most locations east of the Cascades will continue to see gusty conditions this evening. Summer Lake has observed wind gusts up to 45 mph this afternoon. With 700 mb winds expected to be around 45 to 55 kts through this evening, those strong wind gusts around 45 to 55 mph seem likely through this evening over higher terrain east of the Cascades.
By tomorrow, another cold front is expected to approach southern Oregon. Snow levels will be down to roughly 3000 feet around the time of this frontal passage. Therefore, we expect snow to accumulate down to that level during most of the day. Travel impacts around the 3000 to 5000 foot level are more uncertain because of warmer sub surface temperatures keeping roadways relatively warm. For locations above 5000 feet in the central Cascades, we're expecting more travel impacts due to accumulating snow. The NBM snow accumulation probabilities support this with a 40% chance for more than 8 inches of snow during Friday and Friday night. These probabilities seem to hedge on the lower side based on what is usually observed in winter storms. With snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour Friday, there could be travel problems over the high Cascades during Friday. Because of the probabilities and snowfall rates, we decided to issue a winter weather advisory over the high central Cascades Friday.
By Saturday, snow levels will still be lingering around 2500 to 3000 feet. The axis of the trough will continue to move east through the day with models suggesting the precipitation will continue in the morning hours of Saturday. Eventually, high pressure will build and the atmosphere will dry out Saturday evening.
Right now models are not predicting any fog in the valleys. We'll have to keep an eye out for that as it's known to fog in the valleys after heavy rain. It also should be noted we're almost in March and the probability for fog becomes less likely as we move into spring. We'll also have to keep an eye on the frost forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning as frost will be possible along the coast.
Long TermSunday through Thursday...Confidence in the long term forecast remains low, as model and ensemble solutions continue to divide themselves between two distinct solutions. The first scenario suggests that a large trough will dig south towards the western US, but will break off into a closed low before making it onshore. The trough then slides farther south and takes up station off of southern California, keeping our region dry under high pressure for the first half of the week. The other scenario is one where the trough remains intact within the prevailing westerlies, bringing a chance for light to moderate precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday before quickly departing into the Great Basin by Tuesday. The GEFS members and the deterministic GFS heavily lean towards the first solution, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and its ensembles heavily favor the second. Neither scenario is favored overall, but past experiences make this forecaster lean ever so slightly towards the drier solution. Thus, the forecast precipitation chances in the extended period have been adjusted lower than the NBM, but have still kept at least a slight chance in place for early next week to account for the possibility that the wetter solution verifies.
The rest of the forecast term should be rather quiet, although there is a possibility for a stronger, wetter system to arrive late next week. -BPN
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Surf Advisory from 4am to 4pm PST Friday for ORZ021-022. High Wind Warning from 7am to 7pm PST Friday for ORZ030-031. Wind Advisory until 4am PST Saturday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory from 4am Friday to 4am PST Saturday above 5000 feet in the for ORZ025-027.
CA...High Wind Warning from 7am to 7pm PST Friday for CAZ085. Wind Advisory until 4am PST Saturday for CAZ085.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2am PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4am to 4pm PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.