Marine Weather Net

Cascade Head to Florence, OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast




TO 5





The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ255 Forecast Issued: 847 AM PDT Tue Sep 13 2022

Rest Of Today...Sw Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves Sw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog And A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon.
Tonight...N Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight.
Wed...N Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning.
Wed Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves W 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Thu...Se Wind 5 Kt, Veering To W In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Se 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The W At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Thu Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Fri...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 3 Ft.
Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
... National Weather Service Portland OR
203pm PDT Tuesday May 30 2023

Cooler temperatures closer to seasonal normals expected today through Thursday as a trough of low pressure to the north maintains onshore flow. Dry conditions through at least Friday with the exception of some possible drizzle along the coast during the middle of the week. A significant warming trend is possible Friday through the weekend and into early next week.

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Little change to the overall forecast for the next week. Visible satellite imagery shows stratus has dissipated across much of the region early this afternoon and will continue to dissipate in the southern Willamette Valley through the afternoon hours. Despite the similar start to the day from yesterday, subtle changes in the upper level pattern will commence a modest cooling trend today as the narrow ridge which extended over the region yesterday has been shunted offshore by the gradual advance of a broad longwave trough centered over the Gulf of Alaska. This will result in 850 mb temperatures dropping from around 10 C Monday afternoon to 4-5 C today, corresponding to highs closer to the low 70s this afternoon. Expect cooler temperatures to persist through Thursday as the region remains under the influence of the upper level trough. A deepening marine layer and increasing onshore gradients will bring increased marine cloudiness to inland areas by Wednesday, contributing to temperatures struggling to get out of the 60s in many locations Wednesday afternoon. A pair of embedded shortwave troughs will cross the region during the middle of the week, which may produce some areas of drizzle along the coast Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, still expecting the bulk of the area to remain dry through the duration of the work week as stable onshore flow keeps any shower activity east of the Cascades. -CB/HEC

Long Term
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...The overall upper level pattern for the extended remains the same as the previous forecast, though subtle changes have impacted the forecast. Ensemble guidance remains in general agreement on a gradual amplification of the upper level pattern through late in the week, placing the Pacific Northwest in southwest flow aloft between the NE Pacific trough and an expansive ridge covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will yield a warming trend from Friday through the weekend, though the warmer temperatures have trended to early next week. Ensemble guidance is shifting the trough just slightly farther east through the weekend and delaying the western spread of the upper ridge until early next week. Temperatures are still expected to warm over the weekend, but they may not be quite as warm for the weekend as previous forecasts indicated. However, Monday and Tuesday are now looking to be the warmest days.

Latest NBM guidance is now depicting around a 40-50 percent chance for highs to climb back into the 80s in the southern Willamette Valley and a 50-60 percent chance for the northern Willamette Valley by Saturday and closer to a 70-80 percent chance by Sunday. The probability for temperatures to reach 90 degrees has also lowered for Sunday to 20-30 percent through the valley. However, the probability for temperatures to reach 90 degrees for Monday remains similar with a 50-70 percent chance along with a 40-60% chance for Tuesday. As we can see, enough uncertainty still remains with the extended pattern to give us low confidence in exact temperatures and duration of the heat, though fairly high confidence in warming temperatures.

The forecast retains shower chances returning along the Casacdes Sunday into Tuesday as models continue to depict a weak cutoff low taking shape over the Great Basin late in the period, but this aspect of the forecast remains more uncertain as the details of the evolution of the upper level pattern remain more nebulous beyond Saturday. -CB/HEC

No significant changes from Tuesday morning's forecast package. Surface high pressure remains offshore while surface low pressure persists inland and over the OR/CA border. This will bring a fairly persistent pattern of north to northwest winds over the coastal waters through the week, with strongest winds expected afternoons and evenings with gusts to 25 kt. Will maintain the latest Small Craft Advisory headlines through tonight. Seas will be fairly choppy and wind wave driven, generally around 6 to 8 ft, although the incoming northwest swell is expected to lengthen the period to around 11 to 12 seconds. Winds weaken and seas subside somewhat beginning Wednesday as the pressure gradients weaken for the remainder of the week. Still expect northerly winds with gusts to 20 kt and seas around 4 to 6 ft through Friday. DH/JBonk

NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.