Cascade Head to Florence, OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves Sw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog And A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon. |
| Tonight...N Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight. |
| Wed...N Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves W 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...Se Wind 5 Kt, Veering To W In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Se 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The W At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 3 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 240am PDT Sat April 27 2024 Synopsis Another front will push across the region today, with rain this morning into the afternoon, then showers. Showers will continue into early next week. May have a day or two break (Wednesday into Thu), but more precipitation arrives to start next weekend. .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)...As of 2 am, still have some lingering showers, mainly over the Cascades. Next front is offshore, and fast approaching. As such, will see rain spread back to the coast by daybreak, with rain spreading inland this morning. This front is moving at a decent pace, will will push onshore this afternoon, racing to the Cascades by late afternoon/early evening. Will trend forecasts a such, the rain transitioning to showers behind the front. Overall rainfall not all that much, with generally 0.25 to 0.50 inch along the coast into the Coast Range/Willapa Hills, and parts of the Cascades from Mt Jefferson northward. Bit less rain for inland valleys, with 0.10 to 0.25 inch expected. Once the front passes, will have cooler air aloft push inland. This will maintain showers tonight into Sunday. Lapse rates do steepen just a tad, enough such that with any warming that comes with the breaks in the clouds, could see an isolated thunderstorm. Not all that sold on the idea, but will maintain a slight chance for areas along the coast, as as inland for Sunday afternoon/evening north of a Tillamook to Estacada line. Another fast moving upper level system will push off the Pac into the region Sunday night. This will enhance the showers, with even a period of steady rain for a few hours Sunday night. As this disturbance passes, snow levels will drop from 4000-4500 ft on Sunday down to 2500-3000 ft Sunday night. Could see another 2 to 6 inches of snow across the Cascades at that time. But, with more showery pattern by that time, accumulations across the higher terrain will be more random and non-uniform. But, with this being a late season drop of snow levels, may need to issue a winter weather advisory for the Cascades for Sunday night into early Monday, but will let day shift (or next few shifts) re-evaluate that scenario. /Rockey Long Term (Tuesday through Thursday)...No changes. Overall confidence is low to moderate the pattern stays rather progressive into late next week - deterministic and ensemble guidance struggle resolving the longitudinal placement of ridge/trough features going forward. Showers are expected to linger on Tuesday as snow levels hold somewhere between 2500-3500ft. Wednesday guidance has continued to trend a little drier nudging a larger scale upper-level low further north while a transient ridge glides over the region. Out of all the ensemble solutions available, this scenario is present in roughly 60% of them in addition to the latest deterministic ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS. Past this point model uncertainty becomes truly significant with nearly a 50/50 split between maintaining a ridge feature overhead or bringing a potent trough into the region by Thursday. Hopefully in the coming forecast runs guidance begins to show better agreement resolving the pattern mid to late week. Current confidence in the forecast by Thursday is low. /Schuldt Marine Elevated conditions persist through today, resulting in steep and choppy seas along with gusty southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Therefore, have adjusted the timing of the current Small Craft Advisories to reflect this as conditions will start to subside by Saturday afternoon as winds become more westerly. However, this will be somewhat short lived as the next system is expected to start impacting the waters Sunday and will bring a return to Small Craft winds and seas that are expected to persist across as waters through the start of the upcoming week. /42 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8pm PDT this evening for the Columbia Bar and all of the inner coastal waters (from shore to 10 nm offshore). Small Craft Advisory until 5pm PDT this afternoon for all of the offshore coastal waters (10 to 60 nm offshore). |
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