Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 AM

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ634 Forecast Issued: 449 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Through 7 Am...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight, Then Becoming Nw Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely.
Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...N Winds 20 Kt. Waves Around 4 Ft.
Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
455am EDT Wednesday Oct 28 2020

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north through the area today. Tropical cyclone Zeta will approach from the southwest tonight, then track across the region Thursday into Thursday evening. Another low pressure system and strong cold front are expected to move through the area late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 400am EDT Tuesday... Current GOES water vapor imagery places an upper ridge across the Southeast Conus, upstream of a cold upper low over warning TX and eastern NM. Hurricane Zeta is lifting nwd on the warning periphery of the upper ridge and ahead of the upper low. Meanwhile, zonal flow prevails across the northern tier of the US. A very subtle frontal boundary remains over the local area early this morning. Stratus and fog have developed once again. Vsby is lowest (around a 1/4mi or less) over the SW Piedmont and interior NE NC where a dense fog advisory is in effect. Otherwise, fog is only locally dense from central through s-central VA and the remainder of NE NC. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The frontal boundary is expected to lift nwd today as a warm front. Fog and stratus will be slow to clear this morning, but should lift and scatter later this morning into the afternoon. However, mid and high clouds are expected to increase by afternoon ahead of Hurricane Zeta. Forecast highs range from the mid to upper 70s for much of the area, with low 70s far NE.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday
As of 400am EDT Tuesday... Zeta is forecast to make landfall along the Gulf coast this evening, and then accelerate newd across the Deep South tonight as it is steered by the upper ridge and pushed by the upper low, which moves into the Srn Plains. Some overrunning is expected across the NW and northern portion of the area later tonight, with rain developing after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy to overcast with lows of 60 to 65F.

The 28/00z suite of models keep Zeta as a discrete system (from the upper low to the W) as it moves across the Mid- Atlantic region, with the global models having it move from central VA to the Ern Shore Thursday afternoon and evening. Still, the system will likely be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it impacts the region. The low is expected to be moving quickly, so the window of heavy rain potential is limited. Nevertheless, 1-2" of rain is possible across central portions of the area, with 2-3" possible across the northern tier of the area, and lesser amounts SE. A conditional severe threat continues across the southern half of the area with a marginal risk area in the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook, mainly for damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado, mainly Thursday evening as secondary low pressure approaches from the SW. Breezy to windy conditions are possible (with a SW wind) south of the low track Thursday aftn/evening. Forecast highs Thursday range from the upper 60s NW to upper 70s/around 80F SE.

Later Thursday night, the secondary low pressure area and a cold front (associated with the upper trough) track across the area. This will bring the potential for some additional rain, along with breezy to windy conditions along the coast in a northerly wind. Forecast lows Thursday night range from around 50F NW to the low 60s SE. Lingering showers should move offshore Friday morning, with drying conditions expected by afternoon. Cooler and breezy with highs in the mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
As of 400am EDT Tuesday... Canadian high pressure builds into the region Friday night through Saturday and Sat night. Dry and much cooler. Lows both Friday and Saturday morning range from the mid 30s NW to near 50F across coastal SE VA/NE NC. There could be some frost/freeze potential across the Piedmont if winds decouple. Mostly sunny Saturday with highs in the 50s.

Low pressure tracks across the James Bay and eastern Canada Sunday. The trailing cold front crosses the area Sunday aftn/evening. Not much moisture with this boundary but just enough noted to include a slight chance Probability of Precipitation with it later Sunday. Highs Sunday range from the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. Another cool Canadian airmass follows early next week. Dry and cool. Lows Sunday night in the mid 30s Piedmont to mid 40s SE. Highs Monday in the low- mid 50s. Lows Monday night lwr 30s (psbl first freeze) nw to lwr 40s se. Highs Tuesday 55-60.

Marine
As of 500am EDT Wednesday... A stalled frontal boundary is located inland across central VA and southern MD this morning. The pressure gradient remains fairly weak across the region with light southerly winds of 5-10 kt. Seas are 2- 3 ft with waves around 1 ft. These conditions are expected to last through Thursday morning.

Hurricane Zeta is still expected to make landfall near New Orleans this evening and track northeast across the Southeast U.S. Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The remnants of Zeta is expected to track across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday. The center of circulation is likely to cross central VA then move off the coast of Delmarva Thursday evening. The strongest winds will be south of the track, which will encompass most of our coastal water zones. Southwest winds will increase across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Gale conditions are possible for most of our coastal zones Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with winds SW 20-25 kt and gusts up to 35 kt. During this time, seas will increase to 7-9 ft with waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 3-5 ft and 2-3 ft in the tidal rivers.

The center of Zeta will pull away from our coast late Thursday night into Friday morning. This will give the area a brief lull in the strongest winds. Winds will become westerly and be between 15 and 20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Seas and waves will slowly come down during this time, but remain elevated.

An upper-level trough will track east across the Ohio River Vally and Mid-Atlantic early Friday morning. This will produce a second surface low pressure center along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds will become N/NE Friday morning and increase. Gale conditions will be possible once again with N-NE winds 20-25 kt and gusts around 35 kt Friday morning through Friday evening. In response, seas and waves will increase again. Waves in the bay will likely be 3-5 ft (3-4 ft in the lower James River), and Seas will be increasing to 7-9 ft (possibly higher for Atlantic waters south of Cape Henry).

The low pressure will slowly move east, away from the East Coast, during the weekend. Winds will remain N to NE for the weekend but come down to 15-20 kt. Waves in the bay should come down by Saturday but seas in the ocean will likely remain elevated through the weekend.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for NCZ012-013- 030. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for VAZ060-061- 065>068-079-080-087. MARINE...None.