Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening. |
| Mon...E Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Ne With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317pm EDT Sunday July 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Flood Watch has been issued for this afternoon into tonight along and south of the I-64 corridor. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue this afternoon. Localized flooding is the primary concern today with locally heavy rainfall and rainfall totals to 3-5". 2) Below normal temps are expected through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures return by the middle to later part of the week. As of 315pm EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue this afternoon. Localized flooding is the primary concern today with locally heavy rainfall and rainfall totals to 3-5". A quasi west-east upper trough remains nearly stationary from KY through VA this afternoon. This has allowed for scattered showers earlier today with locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals have locally already exceeded 2.5-3". Showers are becoming more numerous and latest guidance suggests this trend will continue given PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 2"+. Additionally, ACARS soundings show tall, skinny CAPE, decent upper level W winds for venting convection (45-50 kt anvil level storm relative winds on mesoanalysis), and a wind profile that goes from NE surface winds to N winds in the mid- levels below 500mb to W winds at 500mb and above. The combination of these features has allowed for increased confidence in locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding later this afternoon. In collaboration with WPC, a Slight risk for excessive rainfall has been expanded north to the I-64 corridor. Localized totals of 3-5" are possible. The greatest threat appears to be central to south- central VA into NE NC where a swath of 1.5-3"+ has already occurred since last night. The 12z HREF had a 30% prob for 3" in 3 hours across this area this afternoon with a 10-30% chance across NE NC overnight. Given the increased confidence and recent rainfall allowing for soils to become saturated in some locations, have issued a Flood Watch for locations generally along and south of the I-64 corridor. The Flood Watch is in effect until 10pm this evening for VA and 6am Monday for NE NC. The longer duration of the watch across NE NC is due to the HREF showing 10-30% probs for 3" in 3 hours continuing across southern portions of NE NC through tonight. However, will note that confidence is lower for this round of precipitation and the watch may need to be ended early if it becomes apparent that convection has moved south of NE NC. Otherwise, showers taper off from north to south late this afternoon into tonight with decreasing confidence in rain on Mon. Probability of Precipitation has lowered to 15-45% south of US-460 on Monday with little in the way of additional rainfall expected. Any additional rain Monday would likely be stratiform and light. Drier weather arrives late Monday through mid-week. Will note that Storm Prediction Center has a 15% chance for severe weather next Fri (July 17), however, considerable uncertainty remains at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temps are expected through the first half of the week before warmer temperatures return by the middle to later part of the week. Temperatures today and Monday remain quite cool for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s due to widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Will note that mid 80s are possible for highs across the northern half of the FA on Monday if precipitation stays to the south and partial breaks in the cloud cover develop. Overnight temperatures drop into the mid-upper 60s inland (away from the coast) tonight and low-mid 60s Monday night (70s along the VA/NC coastline). A few locations across the northern portion of the FA may even drop into the upper 50s Mon night if clear skies are present! An upper level ridge will then move overhead, bringing the return to normal temperatures Tuesday (upper 80s for most). A warmup Wed-Sat is expected with highs in the mid 90s. Mid-upper 90s are possible on Thu. Heat indices look to be near 100F during these days. Marine As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Winds across the local waters have shifted to the east this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front draped across the North Carolina. High pressures across the Northeast has started to build southward across the area, but unsettled weather continues. Isolated showers have developed across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters near the Capes this afternoon, though gusts within these showers have remained below MWS criteria so far. The gradient has started to tighten as the high builds across the area and winds generally range between 10-15 kts, with a few marine observation sites measuring 15- 20 kts as drier air makes its arrival in that area. Waves in the Bay are 1 to 3 ft, while seas in the coastal waters are being measured between 2-4 ft this afternoon. The frontal boundary will remain mostly stationary across the Carolinas late Sunday into Monday. NE/ENE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt are forecast to spread across the Bay, York and James, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters this evening. Guidance is suggesting that these elevated winds will linger into midday Monday as a weak low pressure system develops and slides along the slow- moving front, though the 12z model suite is suggesting they may drop off a little earlier in the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect Currituck Sound, the York and Lower James Rivers, Chesapeake Bay starting late this afternoon. Expect the middle Bay north of New Point Comfort dropping off early Monday morning, with the lower Bay (including the mouth of the Bay), adjacent VA rivers and the Currituck Sound remaining through Monday afternoon/evening. Additionally, an E-SE swell will build to 4-6 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) this evening into early Monday, with 3-4 ft waves possible across the lower Chesapeake Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay). An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect for the coastal zones south of Parramore Island starting early tonight through Monday evening for 5 ft seas. Winds diminish Monday night as high pressure builds down over the local waters. Generally benign marine conditions return for Tuesday and look to prevail through late week. A Moderate Rip Risk is in effect for all beaches today due to increasing onshore flow and building seas. Lingering strong E-NE wind waves will maintain a moderate rip risk Monday for the northern beaches. Meanwhile, a building, longer-period swell (~7 sec) will result in a high rip risk across the southern beaches. Despite winds and seas start to relax on Tuesday, have decided to keep high rip risks in place for the southern beaches due to the continued longer- period swell of ~4 ft and shore normal flow. By Wednesday, seas will have subsided enough and winds will becoming offshore before becoming parallel to the shore, so the rip risk will likely start to come down. Coastal Flooding: Tidal anomalies will continue to increase tonight into early next week as we head into a period of King Tides. This will allow for the higher of each daily high tide (the evening high tide) to rise into action or minor flood stage each day over the next several days. For this evening's high tide cycle, elevated NE/E winds combined with the higher tidal anomalies should allow for widespread nuisance to low-end minor coastal flooding across the Chesapeake Bay, local tidal rivers, and potentially at Duck and Wachapreague. Have expanded the Coastal Flood Statement to include VA Beach, York County, and the Middle Peninsula as these areas will see nuisance flooding. If any of the tides start to overperform, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be required for some areas for tonight's high tide. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Flood Watch until 10pm EDT this evening for VAZ060-061- 065>069-079>083-087>090-092-097-098-512>516-523>525- 528>531. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4am EDT Monday for ANZ636. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 5pm EDT Monday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ656-658. |
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