Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Scattered Showers Early In The Evening. Showers Likely Late In The Evening, Then Scattered Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
321pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front crosses the region late tonight into early Monday. Cool high pressure builds in from the west through midweek.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Latest weather analysis reveals 1018+mb surface high pressure well offshore of the Carolina coast this afternoon. To the northwest, an area of low pressure was analyzed over the eastern Great Lakes/interior northeast region, with a trailing cold front crossing the northern and central Appalachians. Aloft, a broad upper level trough remains centered over the Ohio Valley. Several weak disturbances embedded within the broad trough have kicked off some showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms have developed along the pre-frontal trough largely as expected this afternoon. Latest run of CAMS all paint a similar picture for the balance of the afternoon, with scattered showers and storms pushing east across central and eastern VA to the MD coast by 5-6pm. Additional showers and storms currently moving across east Tennessee and western NC push across north central and NE NC/Southern VA early this evening, reaching the SE coast after 00z/8pm tonight. Some showers are possible into late tonight as the main front pushes through the region late. Otherwise, PoPs quickly taper from high chance to likely range to slight chance after 06z/2a EDT.
Latest mesoanalysis shows some weak MLCAPE ~500-750 J/kg, which in the presence of some decent 0-3km shear (35-45 kt) could portend a few gusty showers or even some isolated thunderstorms. While the threat definitely remains on the lower side over our area, given the dry antecedent conditions and relatively weak lift as the vort max crosses, some isolated severe gusts will be possible late this afternoon into this evening, again with the best threat across our northern half from RIC metro north.
Clearing late tonight into Monday morning. Early morning lows range from the 50s W to the lower 60s E.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... Front slides offshore on Monday, as 1020+MB high pressure builds from the plains into the Mid-south region and toward the local area. No notable cold air advection behind this front, but we do dry out quickly due to subsidence behind the passing shortwave along with strengthening downslope flow (W-SW) and a decent amount of sunshine. Becoming breezy once again by afternoon with W-SW winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 20-25 kt. Pleasant early fall day across the region with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland, low to mid 80s SE. Low temperatures Monday night will range from the mid/upper 40s to lower 50s inland to the upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast.
Another dry/pleasant day with plentiful sunshine is in store for Tuesday. A secondary shot of cool, Canadian air brings a slightly cooler day with highs ranging from the lower 70s W to around 80 E. Good radiating conditions with cool high pressure building in from the west Tuesday night. Chilly and mainly clear with early morning lows in the 40s to near 50 along the coast.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
As of 300pm EDT Sunday... The long term/medium range forecast period is still expected to begin with high pressure across the Great Lakes, eventually building east across New England through late week. Meanwhile aloft, a series of shortwave troughs will carve out an anomalously deep upper trough over the Ohio Valley into the interior northeast Wednesday and Wednesday night, before the trough pushes offshore on Thursday. Remaining dry and seasonable through Thu. Highs in the low to mid 70s Wed, with lows in the 40s to mid/upper 50s early Thu. Cooler highs in the 60s on Thursday as high pressure slides into New England and begins to wedge south into the region.
All attention then turns to Tropical Storm Ian and what/if any impacts this system potentially brings to the region by the later portion of the long range forecast (Thursday night- Saturday). 12z/25 model runs continue to lift the system into the eastern Gulf, with questions arising from there with respect to the eventual track of Ian. For now, there is at least the potential for some heavier rainfall and breezy onshore flow as the remnants come closer to the local area by late Friday into next weekend. However, once again important to note that the upper trough and an evolving cool air wedge look to remain in place as we enter the late week period, which could clear the way for a cooler, and perhaps wetter day on Saturday if current trends hold. We will continue to iron out the specific details as the forecast evolves. As always, please continue to monitor the latest forecasts/information from the National Hurricane Center regarding Ian.
As of 320pm EDT Sunday... Breezy SW winds this afternoon and overnight as the pressure gradient tightens between an approaching cold front and high pressure well off the NC Coast. The cold front was over West VA as of latest analysis and is set to cross local waters Monday morning. Expecting sustained SW winds 15-18kt in the Bay and ~20kt over coastal waters through early tomorrow morning. Waves 1-3ft in the Bay, seas 3-4ft in southern coastal waters, and 4-5ft in northern coastal waters. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are up for the lower James until 05z, Bay and Currituck Sound until 08z, coastal waters north of Cape Charles light until 11z.
Winds become more westerly behind the front Monday at 10-12kt, becoming WNW Monday night. Another cold front slides through the area on Tuesday and winds become NW. The cooler,drier air behind the front over the warm waters will allow winds to pick up to ~15kt. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) might be needed with this front if models trend upward any. Seas will be 2-3ft Tuesday-Wednesday, waves mostly 1-2ft. Winds become northerly and approach 20kt Thursday, then NE Thursday night at 15-20kt (highest in southern coastal waters) as high pressure builds in. Seas come up to 4-5ft thanks to persistent onshore flow, waves 3-4ft. There's some uncertainty around the forecast going into the weekend, since it will be at least partially shaped by the track of the remnants of Tropical Storm (likely to become hurricane) Ian that is currently in the Gulf. However, models do agree on moderate to strong onshore flow and elevated seas going into the weekend, so SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed. Please monitor NHC for updates regarding Ian.
Moderate rip risk continues for the rest of today, but going with low rip risk for tomorrow.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Monday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Monday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654.