Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast


TODAY

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ634 Forecast Issued: 544 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Today...Se Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 1 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms This Morning. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon.
Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely Early In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight.
Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 1 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon...S Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654am EDT Sat July 20 2024

Synopsis
A weak front over NC will lift is lifting north early this morning, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 350am EDT Saturday... Key messages:

- Weak frontal boundary lifts northward this morning with low pressure translating along the front this afternoon. Areas near and north of the boundary will see periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

- A few strong storms are possible along and south of the front this afternoon and evening.

Early morning analysis shows high pressure well off the SE CONUS with a weak front slowly making northward progress across NC and into VA. Aloft, a broad positively-tilted trough is noted over the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, resulting in SW flow over the region. Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the region and a few showers have developed along the northward-advancing front near and just offshore from VA Beach.

Expect the front to continue to lift north this morning with an increasing chance for showers and a few storms. Skies will be mostly cloudy today with widespread showers and storms possible this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be held down by cloud cover and showers with highs ranging from the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE. A shortwave trough in the flow aloft will result in weak low pressure forming along the frontal boundary which will serve to enhance lift and low level convergence along and north of the front this afternoon. CAM/HREF guidance shows the greatest precipitation coverage and probabilities of 3"/3 hours generally along the US 460 corridor today. WPC has included a small Slight Risk area from the VA/NC border northward into the I-64 corridor today. In coordination with neighboring offices, have opted not to issue a flood watch for today with the highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast placed just north of the areas that have received the most rainfall over the last 72 hours (Mecklenburg County eastward along the VA/NC border and into NE NC). If short term trends show less northward progress with the front this morning, a short-fused Flood Watch may be required for these areas. As low pressure translates east along the front late this afternoon and evening, Probability of Precipitation will be focused across the SE third of the area and near the coast/offshore after midnight. Enhanced flow aloft will result in 25-30 kt of shear this afternoon and evening along and south of the frontal boundary. Strong straight line winds locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from convection this afternoon and evening. Storm Prediction Center has areas near and south of the VA/NC border in a Marginal Risk. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 60s N and NW to the low 70s SE.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
As of 430am EDT Saturday... Key Messages... - Lower coverage of showers and storms on Sunday as the front meanders from central NC into VA in the afternoon.

The front gets pushed into NC in the wake of weak low pressure. Shower and storm chances will be focused over the southern third of the area on Sunday. Fewer clouds and showers across the northern half of the area will result in slightly higher temps Sunday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 80s N and NW with mid 80s to the S. Some break in the humid conditions is expected for the northern half of the area with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s while areas south of the I-64 corridor will maintain dew points in the mid 70s and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values greater than 2". Overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern on Monday with continued SW flow aloft and deep moisture over the region. The front is forecast to lift north of the area on Monday so there will be less forcing in the low levels to focus shower and storm chances. That said, diurnally driven convection is likely across the area with locally heavy rainfall possible just about anywhere in region. Highs Monday stay in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows again in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 430am EDT Saturday... Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled this week with deep moisture and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The remainder of the work week will see little change in the overall pattern across the region with continued SW flow aloft. Bermuda high offshore will maintain a feed of deep moisture into the region with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values generally at or above 2". Showers and storms will follow a diurnal cycle, generally forming over inland areas in the afternoon and spreading toward the coast in the evening. Have maintained likely Probability of Precipitation each afternoon through Thursday with somewhat lower chances on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. A few degrees cooler for the latter half of the week with highs in the mid 80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Marine
As of 250am EDT Saturday... Key Messages:

- A warm front lifts north through the area today, bringing light and variable winds.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible each day.

A warm front is slowly moving north across northern NC early this morning, with E-SE winds of 5-10 kt over the waters and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. The front is forecast to continue to lift north across part of the area today before stalling as weak surface low pressure tracks along it. The weak low moves offshore tonight. Winds will generally be E-SE at ~10 kt today, with S-SE winds south of the front (over the far SE VA/NE NC coastal waters). Winds become variable this evening as the low tracks over the waters before turning to the W-NW tonight (and remaining well below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, scattered to numerous thunderstorms could produce locally higher gusts (especially from midday through this evening). Light and variable winds are expected Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds become more established Monday and especially the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain predominantly sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through the period, outside of brief higher wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across the northern waters mid-late this week as SSW winds become a bit more elevated (but still below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds).

Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.