Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

NE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

THU

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ634 Forecast Issued: 103 PM EDT Wed Aug 04 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
This Afternoon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Rain.
Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Early In The Evening.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Thu Night...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight, Then Becoming W Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
230pm EDT Wednesday August 4 2021

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast over the Outer Banks this morning and then off the Virginia coast this afternoon. A stationary front will linger off the coast tonight and Thursday as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure slides offshore Friday.

Near Term - Until 8pm This Evening
As of 1115am EDT Wednesday... Rainfall that has been impact much of the eastern portion of the CWA this morning is beginning to ease with surface front getting pushed off the coast. The upper trough remains centered over the TN/OH valleys this morning, but the shortwave energy that induced the rainfall is lifting to the north at this time. As a result, should see improving conditions through the afternoon for most areas, but with the northeasterly flow continuing, the lower clouds will remain an issue through much of the afternoon from the Middle Peninsula southwest into NE NC. The Piedmont counties to the west should see some sunshine return with dry conditions. Overall have not made any temperature adjustments yet, but could see the central VA Piedmont reach the lower 80s while the SE remain cool. Have nudged the probability of precipitation down a little on the western edge of the pcpn shield for the afternoon.

Prev Discussion... GOES water vapor channels depict an amplified trough from the Great Lakes to the Deep South early this morning, with a vigorous shortwave trough pushing across the western Carolinas and a baroclinic leaf over the Mid-Atlantic associated with a very strong upper jet for early August. Model analysis depict the strength of this jet is ~125kt at 200mb. The combination of lift under the RRQ of this jet and the shortwave feature pushing in from the west has resulted in a band of rain from the coastal Carolinas through SE VA and the Lower Eastern Shore. At the surface, 1012mb low pressure is located just offshore of the NC/SC border, with 1020mb high pressure centered over the Adirondacks of NY and ridging to the SSW into the VA Piedmont. This high is maintaining a drier airmass over the Piedmont. Therefore, there is a very sharp cut-off on the western edge of the rain. The best instability gradient is along the coast, so any tstms remain offshore.

Strong lift and deep moisture will remain over NE NC, SE VA, and the Lower Eastern Shore through this morning, with dry conditions prevailing over the Piedmont, and cloudy will occasional light rain in between. A rumble of thunder is possible over coastal NE NC this morning, but overall deep convection is not expected. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 2-3" for coastal NE NC, tapering quickly to 0.75-1.0" for Hampton Roads, then down to 0.1-0.25" from Wakefield, to Williamsburg to Salisbury, then little to no rainfall to the W. Breezy along the coast today with a NE wind of 10-20 mph occasionally gusting to 25-30 mph. Clouds and onshore flow will keep high temperatures only in the low/mid 70s today across the eastern half of the area, with upper 70s for the I-95 corridor, and near 80F for the Piedmont.

.SHORT TERM /8pm THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400am EDT Wednesday... A stationary front will remain immediately offshore tonight as another wave of low pressure tracks to the NE along the boundary. However, the upper trough will nudge eastward and much of this moisture should remain offshore. Probability of Precipitation for showers are 20-40% along the coast tonight, with dry conditions expected inland. Becoming mostly clear inland and remaining mostly cloudy along the coast. Low temperatures range from the upper 50s/low 60s over the Piedmont to the upper 60s over coastal SE VA/NE NC. A drier trend continues for Thursday as the upper trough nudges east and high pressure builds in from the north. 20-30% Probability of Precipitation for showers have been maintained for far SE VA/NE NC with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 70s along the coast to the mid 80s inland.

High pressure builds over the area Thursday night and then slides offshore Friday. Mostly clear Thursday night with low temperatures ranging through the 60s, with upper 50s possible NW. High temperatures Friday range from the low 80s along the coast to the mid/upper 80s inland under a partly to mostly sunny sky. There is only a minimal chance of showers/tstms over far SE VA and NE NC in vicinity of some locally higher dewpoints.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 200pm EDT Wednesday... Summer will return in the extended period as the upper level ridge over the SERN US builds and extends from the Western Atlantic into the Lower MS Valley. As the height rise, so will the temperature and humidity. Expect High temperatures to build into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and then in the low to mid 90s for the early part of next week. While an isolated shower is possible due to the day time heating on Sunday through Tuesday, most areas will be dry as their is little in the way of lift for any organized convection. By Wednesday however, the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) both show a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley which could knock down heigheights and become a focus for convection. Otherwise, expect typical August weather over this time period.

Marine
As of 340am EDT Wednesday... A broad area of low pressure is located off the coast of SC/southern NC early this morning, with a trough extending NE to the NC Outer Banks. High pressure is centered well off to the NE of the local area. E/NE winds prevail at 15-20kt across southern areas and 10-15kt or less to the north. Seas have increased to 5 ft across the NC coastal waters, but are only 2-3 ft off the MD eastern shore. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Headlines are in effect for the entire marine area today as the surface low is forecast to move NE later today, remaining offshore and sliding well off the Delmarva coast tonight. NE winds are expected to increase to 20-25kt with gusts up to 30kt across the lower bay and southern coastal waters through this morning/early afternoon. spreading N to the northern coastal waters this aftn/early evening. Seas will build to 5-6 ft (possibly to around 7 ft for a few hrs). Waves in the Bay will build to 3-4 ft, 4-5 ft at the mouth of the Bay by late morning/early afternoon. Waves in the rivers will be 2-3 ft (highest in the lower James). Improving conditions with winds turning to the N and diminishing to 15 kt later tonight/early Thu as the surface low moves well off to our NE. Will linger SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines into thu morning for the coastal waters as seas will be slow to subside (especially across the north). High pressure moves into the region Thu night/Fri, then slides off the coast Fri afternoon into Sat. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will prevail during this period, continuing through the weekend with seas 2-4 ft and waves in the Bay 1-2 ft.

Will have at least a moderate rip current risk for all beaches today. Depending on how seas behave, could need a high risk across the southern beaches today. Expecting a moderate rip risk for all areas for Thursday.

Climate
As of 340am EDT Wednesday... Rather cool today for high temperatures, especially along the coast. Could challenge record low maximum temperatures at ECG/SBY. For reference they have been included below:

* RIC: 73 (1966) * ORF: 68 (1912) * SBY: 73 (1948) * ECG: 74 (1950)

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.