Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 4 Ft After Midnight. Showers.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
447am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
A frontal boundary laying nearly stationary across central and southeast Virginia early this morning, will lift north as a warm front this morning into this afternoon. A cold front will cross the area from the west northwest late today into tonight. Weak high pressure will build into the area for Monday and Monday night. Low pressure will track eastward across the Gulf coast states on Tuesday, then moves off the coastal Carolinas while intensifying Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 420am EDT Sunday... Latest weather analysis indicates that the frontal boundary has sagged S into SE and central/SE VA early this morning. Low clouds and fog were affecting most of the CWA except extrm srn/SE VA and NE NC, where sky was mostly clear or partly cloudy. Temps ranged from the lower 50s over the Lower MD and VA ern Shore, to near 70 over NE NC.
Warm front will lift north of the area late this morning, with a deck of low stratus/fog likely to linger over NE sections through late this morning before scouring out. Meanwhile, vertically stacked system in the upper midwest will lift across the upper midwest/western Great Lakes. The associated surface cold front will cross the Ohio Valley into the interior northeast through early afternoon. approaching our region from the W-NW late this afternoon.
Decent SW surface winds in advance of the front combined partly to mostly sunny conditions (fewer clouds SE sections) will allow for a very warm afternoon. High temps mid to upper 80s are likely west of the Ches Bay, while readings over the Lower MD and VA ern shore will average in the mid 70s to near 80. Record temps not really threatened for most sites today, with record maxes now well into the lower to mid 90s, as we cross into late March/early April. However, have added a Climate section below for reference.
Most of the today will remain dry, with some isolated to widely sctd showers and possibly a tstm expected along prefrontal trough after 20z/4pm. Broad scale forcing for ascent will be limited, and downslope flow will keep low-level moisture limited as well. However, strong surface based instability and modest increase in bulk shear do at least argue for some conditional potential for isolated to widely scattered late afternoon convection. Storm Prediction Center has entire forecast area in a marginal risk for today, with isolated damaging wind gusts the main threat.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday
As of 420am EDT Sunday... The front will push off the coast tonight, with west winds behind the boundary ushering in drier air and a clearing sky. Lows tonight ranging through the 50s to near 60.
Dry weather expected Monday and Monday night. Generally becoming mostly sunny on Monday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s over the eastern shore, to the mid to upper 70s inland/piedmont. Mostly clear or partly cloudy Monday night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.
Clouds increase from the WSW during Tue, with increasing rain chances for later Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a storm system tracks across the Gulf coast states then off the coastal Carolinas. At this time, highest Probability of Precipitation will be across the southern half of the area, during this time period. Highs on Tuesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As of 420am EDT Sunday... PoPs will quickly decrease to chance on Wed, as the storm system moves out to sea. High pressure/dry weather will return for Thu and Fri, as high pressure builds into and over the region. High pressure will slide off the coast on Sat. Highs in the 50s Wed, and mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s Thu, Fri and Sat.
As of 400am EDT Sunday... A stationary front is located over southern VA early this morning. Areas of fog are present N of the boundary. Vsby is 1nm or less off the coast of the Ern Shore where a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 am N of Parramore Is., and through 7 am from Cape Charles to Parramore Is. Vsby is expected to average 1-3nm for the Bay/Rivers early this morning, but some locally dense fog with vsby 1nm or less is possible. The wind is NE 5-10kt N of the boundary, and SW 10-15kt S of the front, with seas around 3ft and up to 4ft out near 20nm off the MD coast. The boundary will lift N as a warm front later this morning, and this should result in vsby improving. The wind will become SW 10-15kt by this afternoon for most of the area, with limited mixing. However, portions of the York and James are expected to have a SW wind of 15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. A cold front crosses the region tonight, with the wind shifting to W with speeds of 10-15kt tonight into Monday. Again, locally stronger wind up to 15kt is possible over the rivers Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas will range from 2-3ft tonight into Monday. A cold front drops across the region Monday night with a sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) NNW surge, although marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible in the middle Bay. Seas briefly build to 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. Weak high pressure builds N of the region Tuesday. Low pressure tracks along and off the Carolina coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely, with the latest guidance depicting a potential for gale conditions for the ocean S of Cape Charles. Seas build to 6-8ft N and 8-10ft S Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the NW Wednesday night into Thursday.
While record highs are unlikely to fall on Sunday, they are included below for reference as the current forecast is within a few degrees of these values at KORF/KECG.
* Record Highs Sunday 3/29:
* RIC: 94 (1907) * ORF: 92 (1907) * SBY: 93 (1907) * ECG: 90 (1985)
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for ANZ654. Dense Fog Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.