Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And Ne 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 235am EST Fri Jan 2 2026 Synopsis Slightly milder weather returns today ahead of a low pressure system that will pass south of the area. Widespread rain is likely for southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina later Saturday with some wet snow possible north of Richmond. Dry and seasonably cool weather returns Sunday and Monday, followed by a warming trend Tuesday through most of next week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 235am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Brief chance of snow showers across the MD Eastern Shore this morning with very little to NO accumulation expected. - Close to seasonable temperatures are expected today. Morning weather analysis shows strong NW flow aloft with a weak shortwave moving across the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface. temperatures are in the upper 20s to low 30s across VA/ NC and mid 20s across the MD Eastern Shore. With the shortwave moving across the area high level clouds continue to develop and cover the northern half of the area. While south of US-460 skies are remaining relatively clear. In addition to these high level clouds some snow showers are possible across the MD Eastern Shore given enough energy moving along the shortwave. However, the there continues to remain a decent amount of dry air at the surface and the snow will struggle to make it down. Decided to keep POPs between 15 to 20% in case the snow is able to overcome the dry air. If the light snow is able to win the battle against the dry airmass it could cause a light coasting of snow since the surface temperatures over the area are below freezing. Through the rest of the morning temperatures should remain steady across the northern half of the area as skies remain locked in cloud cover. Lows across the north will be in the middle to upper 20s and low 20s across the MD Eastern Shore. While to the radiational cooling will occur as skies remain clear and lows will drop into the upper 20s. Through the day a weak boundary will push north splitting the CWA (County Warning Area) in half as high pressure moves across Florida. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy to the north and mostly clear to partly cloudy across the south. This will have in impact on temperatures today as highs along and north of I-64 will be in the upper 40s to 50s with low to middle 40s across the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. While across the south Temps will range between the low to middle 50s in VA and upper 50s to perhaps touching 60 in NE NC. By tonight, clouds move back in across the area as weak system approaches from the south. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s across the south and middle to upper 20s across the north. Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night As of 235am EST Friday... Key Messages: - A disturbance brings a chance for widespread rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Some wet snow could also mix in later Saturday along and north of I-64, but little to no accumulation is expected at this time. - Dry weather returns Sunday. Saturdays forecast confidence continues to remain low during this forecast update. A low pressure system will track out of Texas across the deep south and through the Carolinas along a remnant boundary. Wide spread rain showers are likely across NE/NC and Southern VA (Primarily south of US-460) Saturday afternoon and into early Sunday Morning. Latest Ensembles are in slight disagreement with one another on how much Quantitative Precipitation Forecast could fall across southern VA & NE NC. Latest EURO shows a 30 to 40% probs of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast >= .1" while the GFS (Global Forecast System) (less suppressed) showing probs between 70 to 80%. The trends in the model data will continue to be monitored. In addition, the northern extent of the precipitation field continues to remain in question as well. The recent 00z model guidance continues showing different solutions on how far north the precipitation extends. The 00z High-res and Deterministic Euro show a more suppressed system confining the precipitation across southern VA and NE NC. While the GFS stands alone with precipitation making it further north. All in all, continue to monitor for some wintry precipitation (likely as a rain/snow mix) on the northern edge of the precipitation field. The best chance as of now would be from the RIC Metro northward (including the eastern shore), though impacts appear unlikely attm as surface temps will likely be just above freezing even if it does snow. However, if the system is suppressed as some model guidance suggest the snow chances will dwindle across the north. Recent Ensemble guidance has backed off the snow probservations and are now below 10% for 1" of snow at a 10:1 ratio. Highs for Saturday currently range from the upper 30s-mid 40s, but could be lower if there is widespread clouds and precip. Any lingering precipitation ends from west to east Saturday night. Lows fall into the mid 20s-mid 30s but temps don't get too cold until after the precipitation ends. By Sunday, the low pressure will move off shore and a high moving out of the NW will move back into place this will bring dry conditions and clear skies across the CWA. Highs will be in the low to middle 40s and lows will be in the low to middle 20s inland and upper 20s along the coast. Long Term - Monday Through Thursday As of 235am EST Friday... Key Message: - Sensible and mainly dry early January weather returns early next week. A warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through most of the week. Dry and cooler weather is expected to prevail Monday as highs are forecast to be in the middle to upper 40s across VA and NE NC. While across the MD Eastern Shore temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. By the middle of next week the latest 00z ensembles have a decently strong ridge building in across the eastern half of the United States. Highs quickly moderate into the 50s Tuesday and we could potentially see highs in the low to middle 60s by next Wednesday. The chance for rain is overall quite low through the extended period, but a progressive system could bring a chance for light precipitation next Wednesday or Thursday. Marine As of 235am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds over the local waters. - Low pressure moves off the Southeast coast Saturday night into early Sunday with low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible, primarily for the southern coastal waters. Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. The wind is very light and generally out of the E to SE. Seas range from 1-2ft N to 2-3ft S, with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The wind briefly becomes W to NW 5-10kt (10-15kt offshore for the southern coastal waters) this morning ahead of a weak boundary, which drops N-S along the coast later this afternoon and evening. This will allow the wind to shift to N/NE 10-15kt by tonight. Seas will be ~2ft today and build to 2-3ft tonight, with waves in the Ches. Bay remaining ~1ft today and 1-2ft tonight. A southern stream low slides across the Southeast coast Saturday and deepens as it moves offshore Saturday night into early Sunday. The wind Saturday is expected to be NE 10-15kt from the lower Ches. Bay/lower James S through the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound, and then increases to ~15kt Saturday night for the lower Bay/lower James/Currituck Sound and 15-20kt for the southern coastal waters. Farther N, a 5-10kt N/NE wind Saturday should become NE 10- 15kt by Saturday night. The wind becomes NNW 10-15kt Sunday for the Ches. Bay and 15-20kt for the coastal waters as the low pulls farther offshore and as high pressure builds in from the NW. The best chance for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions at this time and primarily for 4-6ft seas is across the southern coastal waters later Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to build across the coast Sunday night into Monday. The high then settles off the coast Monday night through the middle of next week with generally sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) SW flow. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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