Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ634 Forecast Issued: 1257 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw Late. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming Ne Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely.
Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Wed...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...Se Winds 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
959pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022

Synopsis
A cold front moves across the area tonight, then stalls across the southeast through Wednesday as high pressure tracks across the northeast. The front returns north as a warm front Wednesday night. A cold front crosses the area early Friday.

Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 955pm EDT Sunday... Cold front about through the NW 1/3rd of the FA attm...having reached RIC in past hr. The front will continue to push E and SE through the night. Waning convection over most of the FA the past couple of hrs. The exception remains INVOF the northern neck in VA to portions of the eastern shore (mainly the lower MD eastern shore). most of the precipitation diminishes after 04-06Z/23. Becoming or remaining mostly cloudy overnight w/ lows from the l60s NW to the u60s-around 70F SE.

.SHORT TERM /6am MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310pm EDT Sunday... Unsettled/cooler through mid week as high pressure tracks across the nern states. Monday starts out cloudy with a few morning showers as the cold front settles across the sern states. Models show low pressure dvlpng then moving slowly nne Monday nite and Tue. This combined with a moist onshore flow results in a decent insitu-wedge setting up. Shwrs overspread the area sw-ne Monday aftrn then continue on and off Monday nite/Tue. Have increased PoPs/lowererd temps thru the period.

Highs Monday upper 60s nw to mid 70s se. Lows Monday nite mid 50s-lwr 60s. Tuesday will be the coolest with highs in the 60s. Shwrs cont Tuesday nite with lows in the 50s to near 60 se.

Somewhat milder Wednesday along with chance Probability of Precipitation ahead of an apprchg warm front. Some elevated thunder possible during the aftrn. Highs around 70 north, mid-upper 70s south. The warm front lifts north of the area Wednesday nite with only scattered activity thru the nite. Muggy. Lows in the 60s.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 310pm EDT Sunday... Warm with increasing moisture Thurs out ahead of the next cold front forecast to cross the area Thurs nite/erly Fri. Will carry high chance to likely Probability of Precipitation Thurs aftrn/eve then chance Probability of Precipitation Thurs nite with the fropa. Highs 80-85 except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows in the 60s.

Chc Probability of Precipitation Fri due to lingering moisture behind the front. Highs upper 70s-lwr 80s. Still some uncertainity for the upcoming holiday weekend on where the front ends up. Does it hang up along the coast keeping it rather cloudy with periods of showers across the east or does it push far enough offshore so that high pressure builds in? Will try to be optimistic and confine any showers to sern coastal areas both days.

Lows Fri nite mid 50s-lwr 60s. Highs Sat upper 70s-lwr 80s. Lows Sat nite upper 50s-mid 60s. Highs Sunday low-mid 80s, cooler at the beaches.

Marine
As of 945 pm EDT Sunday... No significant changes this evening. Showers and storms will progress across the middle bay along an outflow boundary. Some wind gusts to around 30 kt are possible over the middle Bay through midnight. Otherwise we expect a northerly surge behind a cold front early Monday increasing wind to 15 to 25 kt.

By late tonight/early Monday morning, the Cold Air Advection ramps up with N winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and Lower James. Winds increase to 15-20 kt over the coastal waters, but frequent gusts are expected to remain below 25 kt. Therefore, have SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) from 6am Monday through 1pm Monday for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Storms are possible ahead of and along the front later this afternoon through early tonight, but any elevated winds from convection will be handled by an MWS/SMW.

Winds diminish Monday afternoon to 10-15 kt, becoming NNE/NE late as high pressure begins to build into the Northeast. High pressure lingers over the Northeast through midweek with NE onshore flow continuing through Wednesday and a potential increase to near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level Tues (primarily across the lower bay). Winds become E Wednesday afternoon, becoming SE/SSE Wednesday night as a warm front lifts north. SSE/S winds may increase to 15-20 kt Thurs afternoon into early Thurs night with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible.

Seas 2-3 ft this afternoon increase to 3-4 ft across the coastal waters Monday behind the cold front. Seas may build to 4-5 ft Tues with persistent NE onshore flow, however, confidence in 5 ft seas is too low at this time for SCAs. Seas remain elevated through late week. Waves of 1-2 ft (mainly around 2 ft) this afternoon increase to 2-3 ft Monday behind the cold front.

With winds becoming NE Monday and seas building to around 3 ft, there will be a moderate rip risk across the southern beaches from VA Beach S. Winds remain NE Tues as seas build to around 4 ft. Therefore, there will be a moderate rip risk across all beaches Tues.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 1pm EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634-638.