Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Early In The Evening.
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
|Tue...S Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339pm EST Fri Feb 23 2024
A cold front will continue to push through this region this afternoon and offshore by this evening. An upper low and secondary cold front cross the area Saturday afternoon. High pressure returns later Sunday into early next week before another cold front approaches by the middle of next week.
Near Term - Through Saturday
As of 300pm EST Friday... This afternoon, a cold front is moving through the region with widespread light to moderate rain. Rain gradually comes to an end from NW to SE later this afternoon into this evening as the front pushes further offshore and drier air filters in behind it. Clearing out tonight, but with light winds as the front slowly weakens, there could be some instances of patchy fog (which BUFKIT soundings continue to hint at). Lows will primarily range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
A secondary cold front approaches from the northwest late tonight, eventually crossing the area Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper low will be passing just south of the area Saturday afternoon, and off the Carolinas by Saturday night. CAMs are hinting at two main areas of shower development Saturday afternoon. One area across the MD Eastern Shore and another area mainly south of I-64 (highest Probability of Precipitation south central VA near the NC border). Probability of Precipitation still remain generally in the 20-40% range, with some higher Probability of Precipitation to around 50% creeping into far southwestern portions of the area late Saturday afternoon. Would not be surprised to see some graupel/ice pellets mix in with the rain showers due to steep lapse rates and very cold air just off the surface. Clouds quickly develop shortly after sunrise Saturday, with party sunny to mostly cloudy skies expected areawide. High temperatures will range from the mid-upper 40s across the Eastern Shore/Northern Neck, to the around 50 to the lower 50s elsewhere (mid 50s possible for portions of NE NC).
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Monday
As of 300pm EST Friday... High pressure and clear skies return Saturday night. Much colder Saturday night. It should be the coldest over the eastern shore and across the northern piedmont with lows into the low-mid 20s, with lows mainly in the mid/upper 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. This is slightly below normal for late February but given the transient nature of the pattern, the cold will be short-lived. Dry weather prevails Sunday as high pressure becomes centered along the SE and mid-Atlantic coastal plain by afternoon. Temperatures rebound slightly and will generally range from the lower 50s inland where a light southerly flow develops to the mid- upper 40s along the coast (where winds stay onshore most of the day). Not as cold Sunday night with lows generally in the 30s as clouds return from the west through the night. Staying dry on Monday with some passing clouds and highs into the 60s for most (cooler across the Eastern Shore and along the immediate coast).
Long Term - Monday Night Through Friday
As of 300pm EST Friday... A broad upper level ridge develops over the central CONUS, spreading east through the middle of next week. As a result, a substantial warming trend commences next week with well above normal temperatures to end the month of February. The forecast remains the generally the same for Tuesday and Wednesday compared to the previous cycle, but confidence is lower by later Wednesday and beyond given an increasing degree of model spread as to the evolution of the upper ridge. The latest 12z/23 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) remains the fastest in regards to the northern stream upper trough, and still pushes a cold front into the CWA (County Warning Area) by Wednesday afternoon. The 12z/23 GFS (Global Forecast System) has also trended slightly faster compared to previous runs, with the front pushing into the area Wednesday evening/night. The Canadian remains the outlier with the front crossing the area Thursday. With low pressure into the Great Lakes Tuesday, leaving the area in the warm sector with a series of weak upper impulses moving through the SW flow aloft. Will keep Probability of Precipitation only ~20% Tuesday as there is not a lot of forcing into the local area with highs well into the 60s with a few locations potentially into the lower 70s. More widespread rain chances return Tuesday night as a warm front lifts across the region ahead of the front. Remaining unsettled Wednesday into Thursday as the cold front approaches from the west and crosses the region. Temperatures on Wednesday will be highly dependent on when the front crosses the region, for now have highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds turn to north in the wake of the front, ushering in cooler/more seasonable air for the later portion of the week.
As of 345pm EST Friday... A low pressure, and associated cold front, is moving across eastern Virginia this afternoon. Winds have shifted around to the WNW as the low pulls away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect for all local Atlantic Ocean coastal waters through tonight and Saturday for seas around 5 ft. There will be a secondary cold front that will move from N to S across the area on Saturday morning. This will bring an uptick in N winds along the front, with a possible decrease in winds during the afternoon before another increase in N winds overnight on Saturday night. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River beginning on Saturday morning and continuing into Saturday night for N winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
The center of high pressure will become centered over the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, then shifting southeast for the early part of next week. This will bring more benign marine conditions for the end of the weekend, before a southwesterly flow returns for next week. At this time, conditions are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria into early Tuesday.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 10am Saturday to 7am EST Sunday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Sunday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Saturday to 7am EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.