Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot Late.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402pm EST Tuesday Jan 19 2021
A dry cold front crosses the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Low pressure tracks across the deep south Thursday and Friday. Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest over the weekend.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
As of 350pm EST Tuesday... Latest analysis indicates ~1030mb surface high pressure centered across northern FL/southern GA, with a surface trough along the Appalachians. Aloft, the flow is westerly, out ahead of a subtle trough moving through the upper midwest. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the N, with mid to upper 50s S. Skies are partly/mostly sunny with a breezy W/SW wind. A quick moving upper trough will swing through the local area tonight, which will drag a cold front through the forecast area overnight. Due to the dry airmass, and little to no moisture return today, not expecting any precipitation with this frontal passage, though it will be felt through gusty winds, and colder temperatures behind it. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across the NW, with most of the area dropping to 30-35F (upper 30s far SE). Will have a 15-25% Probability of Precipitation across the NE late, with some light snow or rain showers.
Strong cold air advection, and colder temps aloft tomorrow will keep temps in the low to mid 40s across much of the area, with southern VA and NE NC reaching the upper 40s to around 50, despite mostly sunny skies.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night
As of 340pm EST Tuesday... Then below freezing temps expected Wednesday night, as winds likely decouple with high pressure briefly pushing into the area. Have lows generally in the low to mid 20s inland, and the upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast.
Next system will pass across the deep south later thu/Thu night and will bring some increase in clouds Thu afternoon (especially S). Highs Thurs into the upper 40s to lower-mid 50s. Partly to mostly sunny Fri with highs in the upper 40s N to lower 50s S.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 340pm EST Tuesday... The general consensus for the medium range period is for a dry/cold weekend, with unsettled conditions next Mon-Tue. For the weekend, models are in good agreement with strong surface high pressure centered over the midwest on Sat, moving east into the local area Sat night/Sunday morning. A cold NW flow at the sfc/aloft will bring below normal temperatures Sat with highs ranging from the upper 30s across the N to the mid 40s in NE NC despite mainly sunny skies. Mostly clear/cold Sat night with lows mainly 20-25F inland and in the upper 20s/around 30F near the coast in SE VA/NE NC (some upper teens will be possible in the Piedmont and MD eastern shore). Sunny to start Sunday, with a partly cloudy afternoon with highs mostly in the lower to mid 40s.
Still relatively low forecast confidence beyond that into early next week given a rather large model spread in the location of main features as a series of low pressure systems are forecast to develop Sunday over the central CONUS and move E Sunday night through Tue. The 12Z/19 GFS remains the fastest with respect to bringing in precipitation late Sunday night/Mon, while the ECMWf is significantly slower and brings the best chance for precipitation Monday night into Tue. The CMC and bulk of the ensemble guidance lies somewhere in between. Relatively low confidence day 6-7 forecast, and have blended the solutions for now, both in precipitation timing and temperatures. Will have a low end chance for precipitation moving in from W to E early mon morning, with some potential for wintry mix over the northern 1/2 of CWA Monday morning, becoming mainly rain Monday aftn/Monday night/Tue. Lows Sunday night upper 20s- lwr 30s. Highs Monday in the 40s (except lower 50s SE). Lows in the 30s to lower 40s Monday night, highs Tuesday in the 40s N to lower 50s S. Probability of Precipitation average 50-60% Monday afternoon through midday Tue.
As of 300pm EST Tuesday... Pressure gradient has tighten across the area with a surface low pressure centered over New England and high pressure centered over Florida. Winds are southwest this afternoon 15-20 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt across the southern Chesapeake Bay and James River. Winds are expected to relax this evening.
A cold front will move off the coast Wednesday morning. Winds will become northwest behind the front and increase. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for all area waters through Wednesday night. Winds will be NW 20-25 kt. Highest winds will be between 7am and noon across the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers with gusts up to 30 kt. For the Atlantic coast water, highest winds will be from 10am to 2pm. Gusts are expected to reach 35 kt, especially farther offshore. Held off on issuing a Gale Warning because conditions will be brief, a couple of hours during the late morning and early afternoon.
Winds will decrease Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Conditions look to be sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the remainder of the week. Winds are expected to be SW 10-20 kt Thursday. Another cold front will be move off the coast Friday with winds becoming NW 10-20 kt.
As of 630am EST Tuesday... NWS Wakefield (KAKQ) radar transmitter is malfunctioning and will periodically be offline until later this afternoon (01/19/2021). The Newport/Morehead City radar (KMHX) is also offline due to a scheduled generator upgrade. Users are encouraged to access adjacent radars from Blacksburg (KFCX), Raleigh (KRAX), Sterling (KLWX), and Dover AFB (KDOX) through the outage period.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 11pm EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.