Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Fri...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 6 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 30 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 8 To 10 Ft, Occasionally To 13 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 30 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 7 To 9 Ft, Occasionally To 11 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 6 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 6 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 143pm EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Synopsis High pressure builds north of the area today into Friday with much cooler and drier air filtering into the area. A coastal low develops off the Southeast coast this weekend into early next week, resulting in the potential for heavy rain and breezy conditions for the eastern half of the area. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 630am EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Cool and mainly dry weather is expected today into tonight. Early this morning, the cold front that crossed the area yesterday is now well south of the area. Meanwhile, ~1033 mb high pressure is currently centered near the northern Great Lakes and will continue to drift ESE today into tonight. Much cooler today compared to previous days with temperatures staying in the 60s for most of us (lower 70s possible along the Albemarle Sound). A steady NE breeze continues into this afternoon with winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph closer to the coast. Clouds develop across the E/SE this afternoon with skies remaining sunny further inland. While we don't have any Probability of Precipitation in the forecast, cannot completely rule out a stray rain shower or sprinkle this afternoon across SE VA and NE NC. For tonight, high pressure settles closer to the area setting up better radiational cooling conditions compared to this morning. It should be noted however that winds never go completely calm inland (and remain breezy at the immediate coast). Clouds will also increase late in the night from the SE. As a result, temperatures have trended a bit warmer (1 to 2 degrees) than the previous forecast and the frost threat across the far NW has decreased. It will still be a chilly night with lows dropping into the upper 30s across the NW and widespread 40s for many inland areas. Closer to the coast, lows will be in the 50s. Will let the day shift make any final call on Frost Advisories for our far NW. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night As of 310am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry/cool weather continues into Friday. - Rain chances increase throughout the day Saturday and especially Saturday night as a potentially significant coastal system begins to impact the region. On Friday, strong high pressure ~1030+ mb high pressure will be centered north of the local area over southern New England. Meanwhile, further to the south off the coast of GA/SC, an area of low pressure begins to develop which will gradually lift north Friday night into Saturday. Remaining cool on Friday with similar temperatures to what we see today (60s for most). There will be more cloud cover compared to today with partly to mostly sunny skies expected across the area. Not as cool Friday night with lows ranging from the upper 40s NW to the lower 60s SE. By Saturday, high pressure moves off the New England coast and low pressure moves north along the SC/NC coasts. The day should start out dry for most, but rain chances begin to increase from SE to NW later Saturday morning and especially by Saturday afternoon/evening. Temperatures on Saturday climb to around 70 for most of the area. Rain increases in intensity and coverage (especially SE) as we head into Saturday night. Total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Saturday night ranges from 1- 2+" E and SE, to ~0.50" across central portions of the CWA, to ~0,l0 to 0.25" across western portions of the CWA. WPC has placed SE VA (including Hampton Roads) and NE NC in a Day 3 Slight Risk ERO, with a Marginal Risk extending back to roughly the I-95 corridor and up into the southern MD Eastern Shore. It is possible that a very high tide Saturday afternoon-night (see coastal flooding section for specifics) may compound the fresh water flooding issues across SE VA and NE NC by hampering drainage. Wind will also be increasing throughout the day on Saturday, with NE winds likely gusting to 30 to 40+ mph along the immediate coast Saturday night. This is likely to be an impactful system shaping up, with significant coastal impacts (tidal flooding/marine) also expected. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday As of 310am EDT Thursday... Key Message: - A strong coastal system continues Sunday into Monday, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern portions of the area. By Sunday, the low will likely be somewhere off the NC or VA coasts, though there is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of the low. The low eventually makes it way north, settling over or just north of our coastal waters while slowing down/stalling on Monday. The heavy rain threat continues into Sunday, with the threat likely translating to NE portions of our area. WPC has placed much of the far E/NE portions of CWA (County Warning Area) in a Day 4 Slight Risk ERO with a Marginal Risk covering the remainder of the area. It will also be very windy Sunday into Sunday night, with wind gusts of 45 to 55+ mph possible along the immediate coast (25 to 35 mph inland). It is possible High Wind Watches may be needed for eastern portions of the area if the trends continue. Rain chances begin to diminish somewhat/become focused NE Sunday night into Monday. As for total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, 00z GEFS and EPS still show a stripe of 1 to 3" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast across eastern portions of the area, with the NBM 90th showing upwards of 4 to 6+". Conditions should gradually improve Tuesday and beyond as the low weakens/moves offshore and high pressure begins to build back into the area. Marine As of 340am EDT Thursday.. Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the local waters through Saturday. - Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While some uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions are forecast from Saturday evening into early next week. Storm and Gale Watches have been issued. Yesterday's cold front is now well S of the local waters this morning. In it's wake, the center of strong high pressure is located over the Great Lakes region, which is building down toward the local area. A compressed pressure gradient and ongoing cold/dry advection is leading to elevated N-NE winds. Wind speeds as of 2am are averaging 20-25 kt on the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters, with gusts up to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the local waters. Through this morning, NE flow continues and remains around 15-25 kt for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. A reprieve in the winds is possible by this afternoon, but an additional surge of cooler air should bring another increase in winds this evening into early tonight. Winds again decrease Friday into the first part of Saturday, but the forecast retains 15-20 kt winds in the southern waters through Saturday. The main focus in the forecast period is the developing coastal low Saturday, which will track northward over or close to our waters Sunday into Monday. The exact evolution of the low remains of low to moderate confidence at this point, but there is high confidence in significant marine hazards, including high winds (potentially to Storm force) and dangerous seas. NE winds increase considerably later Saturday into Saturday night, with the peak in the winds Sunday into early Monday as the low makes its closest approach to the area and begins to occlude. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50 kt on the coastal waters, 40-45 kt in the Chesapeake Bay, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers. Although this event remains a bit beyond the typical time line for headlines, have decided to issue Gale and Storm Watches in collaboration with our neighboring offices, with the intent of bringing attention to the dangerous marine threat potential. Storm Watches are in effect for the coastal waters from 22z Sat-11z Mon, with Gale Watches elsewhere for the same timeframe. There may also be several low centers embedded within the larger circulation, with some of these centers potentially rotating back westward to the coast Monday. Therefore, the initially NE wind direction could become N-NNW Monday morning and then NW Monday afternoon. Uncertainty is high into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but a gradual decrease in winds and seas is expected by then. Seas are forecasted to peak in the 13-17 ft range, with higher values not out of the realm of possibility. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only gradually. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 340am EDT Thursday.. Given the high astronomical tides and moderately strong NE winds, nuisance to minor flooding is possible in areas adjacent to the lower Ches Bay, Currituck Outer Banks, and the tidal York/James later today and Friday. A Coastal Flood Advisory has is in effect for the Currituck Outer Banks this morning (given higher confidence in reaching minor flood stage) with Coastal Flood Statements for the Lower James River and mouth of the Ches Bay (given lower confidence in exceeding minor flood stage). Given that this afternoon's high tide is the lower of the astro tides, will handle Friday morning's high tides separately with another round of Coastal Flood Statements or Advisories, if necessary. Tidal anomalies increase quickly late Saturday through Sunday with widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding possible by Sunday. The highest confidence is across the Ches Bay (especially the lower bay) and across locations adjacent to the ocean. Water levels will be highly dependent on the track of the low and the associated wind direction. At this time, the high tide cycle in the late morning-early afternoon of Sunday looks to be the most problematic, though additional flooding is possible beyond then. The ETSS remains on the very high end of the guidance envelope (depicting major to near-record flood levels), with the probabilistic distribution in the P-ETSS a bit more realistic, though the 50% percentile output appears a bit too low in the lower bay locations. Major flooding is forecast from Duck northward into the lower Ches Bay, including at Lynnhaven and Sewell's Point. Major flooding is also forecast in the tidal James and York, including at Smithfield, Jamestown, and Yorktown. Elsewhere, the wind direction should favor primarily minor to moderate flooding, though this is a very fluid forecast and subject to change based on the track of the low. It is a bit too early for Coastal Flood Watches, but they almost certainly will be needed eventually. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for ANZ630>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Friday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Friday for ANZ636-637. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ638-650-652. Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. |
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