Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 940pm EST Tuesday Dec 3 2024 Synopsis The cold pattern continues into this weekend with most of the region remaining dry. A few light showers are possible Thursday morning across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Otherwise, remaining dry through this weekend with rain chances arriving early next week. Near Term - Through Wednesday Night As of 940pm EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cold and dry again tonight. - SW winds becoming breezy Wednesday ahead of next cold front. Late this evening, surface high pressure was centered over the mtns SSW into the Gulf coast states. Low pressure over Central Canada is expected to bring the next frontal passage later this week. Under a clear sky, temps were ranging from the lower 20s into the mid 30s. Lows tonight will be colder than last night, due to very light or calm winds under a clear sky. Lows will range from the mid teens to around 20 inland/Piedmont, and in the 20s near the Bay/coast. High temps will be slightly warmer on Wednesday than today with highs in the mid 40s, with winds picking up ahead of the next cold front. Mostly sunny to partly sunny. Gusts up to 25 mph will be possible. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday As of 300pm EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Breezy SW winds becoming WNW and remaining strong and gusty Thursday. - A few light rain showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As high pressure moves further offshore to the SE, a strong clipper system quickly moves across the Great lakes and into the New England area Wednesday night into Thursday. This system will remain far enough to the N that most of the impact remain outside of the FA. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds will become breezy with gusts up to 25-30 mph ahead of the cold front. Wednesday night, temps will be cool with lows in the mid 30s. The cold front will pass through the area late Wednesday night into Thurs and will bring a chance for rain showers mixing with or ending as snow showers across the Eastern Shore late Thurs morning. There isn't much moisture to this system leaving Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals to be trace to 0.02" inches. Model soundings show temps slightly above freezing at the time of showers, which decreases confidence of snow showers making it to the surface. Temps will be the warmest just after sunrise in the mid 40s (upper 40s to lower 50s in SE VA/ NE NC), as the cold front filters in cool air causing temps to fall throughout the day. Fri highs will continue to be cool around 40 degrees. While the cold front won't bring much precipitation to the area, the winds will be noticeable. Behind the cold front, winds will increase with gusts up to 35-45 mph, highest across the Eastern Shore. Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday As of 300pm EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Chilly temperatures persist through Saturday, before a significant warming trend begins Sunday and especially Monday. - Rain chances increase early next week. To start the weekend, the cold front from Thursday will be situated well offshore, leaving cool high pressure in its wake over the OH Valley and ern/SE CONUS. Aloft, NW flow is expected initially as the associated trough axis also shifts offshore. With slowly diminishing winds and clear skies, Friday night looks to be very chilly, with forecast lows in the mid-upper teens inland and low-mid 20s closer to the coast. Thicknesses and heigheights gradually rebound by Saturday afternoon and highs should be a few degrees milder than Friday, but still on the cold side (mid 40s), albeit under a mostly sunny sky. Cloud coverage could be higher across the N as a reinforcing shortwave slides through. Similarly not as chilly Saturday night though the vast majority of the area still likely drops below freezing and into the mid-upper 20s. The surface high builds south of the area and the low-level flow shifts to the SW as we head into Sunday. Thicknesses also increase markedly as ridging develops and expands over the SE CONUS. As a result, there has been a upward trend in high temperatures Sunday and most of the area is expected to top out in the mid-upper 50s. Cannot rule out additional upward adjustments if the eastward progression or strength of the ridge ends up being faster/stronger. Additionally, skies (as of now) are expected to be sunny or mostly sunny, so it should feel quite nice...especially after the recent cold spell. Forecast lows Sunday night are in the mid-upper 30s inland and around 40 F at the coast. A significant pattern change is expected early next week as the deep- layer flow becomes southwesterly and high pressure sets up near Bermuda. This will favor much milder temperatures and at least intermittent chances for precip. The precipitation coverage will be dependent on the track of various weaker shortwaves downstream of a larger positively-tilted trough over the western states. Either way, think most of the area sees something in the way of rainfall in the early-mid week period next week, but the coverage varies among the guidance. The highest Probability of Precipitation are currently highest (50%) across N and NW portions of the forecast area Monday, with lower confidence and lower Probability of Precipitation Tuesday. In terms of temps, highs Monday range from the mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Tuesday's highs could be even higher (potentially nearing 70 in some spots). This is still ~7 days away, however. Marine As of 300pm EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions across the northern Chesapeake Bay this evening into the early overnight hours. - Much stronger winds are expected beginning Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night in advance of and following a strong cold front. - A long duration period of sustained winds in excess of 25 knots with gusts in excess of 35 knots are likely for much of the area with Gale Warnings now in effect for a majority of the waters. This afternoon, ~1036 mb high pressure remains centered to our west with low pressure located well offshore. Winds are generally out of the NW, ranging from 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1 to 2 feet. Expect a brief uptick in the wind later this evening into the early portions of the night, especially across the northern Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters out 20 nm. As a result, a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect through this evening for the northern-most Chesapeake Bay zone for wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds then rapidly diminish after midnight as high pressure builds towards the region tonight into early Wednesday morning. Wind speeds drop to around 5 to 10 knots over all of the waters as we approach sunrise Wednesday AM. The calmer conditions are short lived as low pressure develops over the Great Lakes region later Wednesday morning/afternoon and the high gets pushed to the southeast. The pressure gradient will be tightening considerably by Wednesday afternoon/evening and SW winds will rapidly increase to 20 to 30 knots. By Wednesday night, winds increase to 25 to 35 knots with gusts to 40+ knots. Local wind probs continue to show a high probability (80-90%+) for a majority of the waters for gusts of 34 knots, and 40-50% chances for wind gusts of 43 knots over the northern coastal waters. Gale Warnings are now in effect for all waters minus the upper rivers Wednesday evening/night with Small Craft Advisories ahead of the Gale headlines starting Wednesday afternoon. A strong cold front crosses the waters Thursday morning, with strong Cold Air Advection in its wake. Winds turn around to the NW Thursday morning, with gusts of 35 to 40 knots continuing. It is possible that the upper rivers may need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with model soundings show deep mixing bringing the potential for 35 to 40 knots gusts further inland. Will let future shifts make the call on the upper rivers. Winds gradually decrease later Thursday afternoon/evening as the pressure gradient begins to relax but will still remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds through most of Friday before high pressure builds towards the area. Seas build to 6 to 10 feet across the northern waters and 4 to 7 feet across the southern waters late Wednesday through Thursday. Waves in the bay build to 4 to 6 feet, with the peak likely Wednesday night. Waves/seas will decrease on Friday but seas offshore likely remain near/above 5 ft into early Friday evening. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 300pm EST Tuesday... With the strong SW winds expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning, there is increasing potential for blow out tides during the low tide cycle early Thursday. Guidance has many lower bay sites and some ocean sites dropping to at least -1.0 ft MLLW. These low water levels could impact navigation in some areas Thu. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Wednesday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7pm Wednesday to 7pm EST Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 10pm EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634-638. Gale Warning from 10pm Wednesday to 7pm EST Thursday for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm to 10pm EST Wednesday for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Wednesday to 7pm EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 7pm Wednesday to 4am EST Friday for ANZ650- 652-654. |
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