Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 10 Seconds And N 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Tonight...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 6 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 10 Seconds And N 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers. |
| Thu...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Showers Likely. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 4 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 320pm EDT Wednesday Oct 29 2025 Synopsis Low continues to approach from the west as high pressure remains anchored to the north. This area of low pressure tracks northeast along the Appalachians tonight, with the trailing cold front sweeping across the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. Near Term - Through Thursday As of 243pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight as another strong low pressure system approaches from the west. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. The low that impacted the region yesterday has moved well offshore, but another weak low has developed off the Carolina coast along a boundary. Additionally, another low pressure system has developed across the Mid-South today with an upper low centered to the SW of the surface low. The low off the Carolina coast has kept a steady stream of showers moving across mainly SE VA and NE NC, but a few showers are currently pivoting across the Eastern Shore as the low starts to lift northward. Despite the smattering of lows and a high across eastern Canada trying to dig across the area, winds remain weaker than yesterday, with land-based wind measurements ranging from generally 20-30 mph (highest along the coast). The local area remains socked in thick low-level cloud cover within NE flow, and temperatures have struggled to get out of the 50s today. The aforementioned surface low off the Carolina coast is forecast to lift northward while the low across the Mid-South moves NE towards the area this evening into tonight. A warm front will lift through the area overnight, which will bring some limited instability ahead of an approaching cold front. As the front pushes through, there will be the meager instability as well as decent shear, so cannot rule out some weak convection developing. Strong SE flow (35-50 kts) just off the surface is expected as a LLJ moves through in tandem with the Carolina low. As any weak convection moves through tonight/tomorrow morning, there is the possibility for a few isolated strong to possibly severe gusts making it to the surface, though lapse rates remain unimpressive. Storm Prediction Center has placed SE VA and NE NC in a Marginal Risk for late tonight through tomorrow morning as the front moves through, with the main threat being wind. Outside of any showers/storms, gusts will be 25-35 mph. In terms of flood potential, that remains low at this time. 50th percentile Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 29/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.5- 1.25" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for central VA, and less than 0.5" farther S. This rain will be beneficial for most areas, especially the norther portion of the forecast area as they have not received nearly the amount of rain that the southern half of the local area has over the past two days. By Thursday afternoon, the system will lift to the northeast and ride the NE coast through Friday night. Conditions will start to improve by late tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon as dry air moves in behind the front. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night As of 243pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Clearing skies and gusty winds expected Thursday night through Friday night. The low will continue to track away from the area Thursday night and winds will become westerly in the wake of the front. Breezier overnight winds will linger before increasing rapidly on Friday. With high pressure starting to build in from the SW and a strong ~980 mb low moving across the Northeast, the gradient will tighten considerably Friday. This tightened gradient combined with the drier westerly flow will allow wind gusts to pick up to around 20-30 mph by Friday afternoon. Skies will clear out, during the day, leading to mostly clear skies and rain-free conditions by trick-or-treating time! Temperatures on Friday night will drop the upper 30s to mid 40s. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday As of 243pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures through the weekend. High pressure will continue to build across the region Saturday. As high pressure settles over the area through the weekend, winds will gradually decrease. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday and Sunday, with highs ranging from 60-65F. Chilly overnight lows are forecast, and there could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect each night Friday night through Sunday night. Lows will drop into the upper 30s across the piedmont and into the lower to mid 40s elsewhere. Another low pressure system may try to move through the area sometime early next week, but there still remains some disagreement in regards to timing and strength between global models. Otherwise, remaining dry through the weekend. Marine As of 315pm PDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across most of the local waters through tonight due to elevated NE winds today becoming E tonight. - Gale Warnings have been issued for the northern coastal waters tonight from Cape Charles north due to E winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through tonight and into early Thursday given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-12 ft. - A Gale Watch is in effect for the northern coastal waters and upper Bay for another period of high- end Small Craft Advisory or low- end Gale conditions is likely Thursday night into Friday night due to elevated W winds behind a cold front. Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure continuing to move NE offshore New England with high pressure across southern Quebec. Another area of low pressure was developing off the Carolina coast and this low will lift north across eastern NC late this evening into tonight. The low will lift north along a warm front merging with another low pressure system in the Appalachians Mountains by early Thu morning. This will tighten the pressure gradient tonight. Winds will become E tonight 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters and 25- 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt across the northern coastal waters tonight. There could be a brief period of gust to 34 kt in the Bay overnight. Wind probs for 34 kt are best from Wachapreague north. Gale Warnings are in the effect from Cape Charles north for the easterly surge. Winds diminish and become SE Thu behind the warm front with a period of sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) or low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible. Winds become SW and then W behind a cold front Thu evening into Thu night with another period of high end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to low-end Gales likely from late Thu into Fri night. Gale conditions are possible with this surge given strong CAA. Have placed the upper Bay and northern coastal waters into a Gale Watch for Friday. Again probabilities of 34 kt are highest from Cape Charles north. Winds diminish this weekend as high pressure builds in. Looking ahead, another period of elevated winds and seas is possible next week, however, confidence remains low. Waves were 2-4 ft (4-6 ft at the mouth of the bay) and seas were 8- 12 ft (highest across the NC coastal waters) this afternoon. Seas remain elevated through Fri night (potentially into Sat). As such, High Surf Advisories remain in effect across the southern beaches through tonight and into Thu across the northern beaches. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 315pm EDT Wednesday... All Coastal Flood Headlines remain in place through this the afternoon . evening high tide with widespread minor to near moderate coastal flooding expected. Tides in the upper Bay were lowered slightly for this evening, but with increasing winds overnight expect the tides to build Thursday. The increasing east winds should also allow tides to jump on the western Bay and tidal rivers during the early Fri morning high tide. Have stuck close to PETSS with tidal anomalies 2+ ft above astro tide tonight through Thursday. Winds become southwest on Thursday pushing water up the Bay building tides even more there. Lewisetta and Bishops Head may even reach major flood stage on Thursday. Given the prolonged period of NE winds, tidal gauges around the Currituck Sound will continue with low water -1 foot MLLW). Expect the water levels to gradually rise tonight. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Warning from 4am Thursday to 4am EDT Friday for MDZ021>023. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EDT Thursday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 4pm EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until 1am EDT Friday for VAZ075>078-085- 086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 10am EDT Thursday for VAZ081-082- 089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT Thursday night for VAZ099-100. High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 656-658. Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 7am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ654. |
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