Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds, Becoming N 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sat...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. Snow. Rain After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Snow In The Morning. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 7 Ft. Rain In The Evening, Then Rain And Snow Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 4 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 821am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Storm Watches have been issued for a majority of the forecast area. Increasing confidence for a major winter storm this weekend with very cold temperatures behind it. Early morning model guidance continues to introduce more mixed precipitation and freezing rain. Snow accumulations have also started to trend lower, as ice accumulations continue to trend higher. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chances for a major winter storm impacting the region remain high, and confidence is beginning to increase regarding precipitation types. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for most of the local area. Users should continue to keep a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days. 2) A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is expected in the wake of the storm, continuing into at least the middle of next week. After effects from the winter storm are likely to linger well into next week due to these very cold temperatures. As of 245am EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chances for a major winter storm impacting the region remain high, and confidence is beginning to increase regarding precipitation types. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for most of the local area. Users should continue to keep a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for the entire area outside of far southeastern portions across Northeast North Carolina due to increasing confidence in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain impacting the area Saturday into Sunday. Confidence continues to increase in a Miller B low track, bringing widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the local area. Very cold air moves into the local area Friday night into Saturdayam in the wake of a strong Arctic cold front with temperatures dropping into the teens to lower 20s. On Saturday, an inverted trough sets up over the southeast US, and a CAD setup develops over the local area as strong high pressure (1045+mb)builds over the Midwest and moves east. During the Saturday night-Sunday morning timeframe, low pressure moves out of the Gulf, eventually dissipating over the Appalachians. Meanwhile, low pressure develops off the NC coast and moves to the north. A variety of precipitation types are expected in this setup with big differences as you head NW to SE across the forecast area. Cold air holds strong at the surface for inland areas as the wedge reinforces. Warmer air likely intrudes across the far SE, with temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 40s to around 50 while areas across the NW stay in the lower 20s. In addition, all guidance indicates some form of a warm nose developing around ~850mb, potentially spreading as far inland as the NW Piedmont. This will result in a messy situation with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain possible across the forecast area. The thickness and strength of the eventual warm nose is what will ultimately decide our precipitation types. Precipitation likely starts off as all snow for a majority of the area Saturday afternoon-evening, spreading north from the south. A change over then occurs from SE to NW with areas across the far SE changing to plain rain. Meanwhile, it gets messier further inland with snow/sleet/freezing rain all being possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now far NW portions of the area would be favored for the most snowfall, while areas south of I-64 and along/west of I-95 would be favored for more icing (see further details about both below). Whatever form of wintry precipitation that does fall will be significant, hence the Winter Storm Watches. Ice: After looking at the 00z guidance, am really starting to get concerned that a good portion of the area may see significant to potentially catastrophic ice impacts. The latest NBM indicates a 30- 50% chance for AT LEAST 0.50" of freezing rain for much of the area along/south of I-64 from our western border over to the western Tidewater and up to the Middle Peninsula. 1.00" probabilities of freezing rain have increased to near 20% across South Central Virginia which may be too low. Even more concerning, the EPS Mean accumulation of freezing rain ranges from 1.00-1.50" across the same locations, with the deterministic ECWMF showing even higher/more alarming numbers. It is possible that the EPS/ECMWF, are overdoing the freezing rain and some of this Quantitative Precipitation Forecast may be sleet instead (from glancing at model soundings), but even half of these amounts will result and a significant ice storm. Ice accumulation of this magnitude would likely result in major travel impacts as well as widespread and long-lasting power outages. Snow: Snow probabilities remain fairly steady, favoring the far northern half of the area up to DC. The probabilities for greater than 12" of snow (off of the NBM) range from 40-60% for much of the northern half of the forecast area, with even higher probabilities (60-80%+) for at least 6". I am concerned these values may be overdone, especially the further south you go, due to substantial mixing of sleet and/or freezing rain. There will likely be a very sharp cutoff in snow amounts (from north to south) just over or near the northern half of the forecast area which we will still need to fine tune with future forecasts. Everyone should take note and begin to make preparations for a significant snow/icing event as moderate to major (potentially extreme) impacts are looking increasingly likely from this storm. In addition, after effects from the storm will likely last well into the work week due to very cold temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2...A prolonged period of very cold temperatures is expected in the wake of the storm, continuing into at least the middle of next week. After effects from the winter storm are likely to linger well into next week due to these very cold temperatures. After a brief warm up Thursday, the Arctic cold front will usher in a very cold air mass as a strong Canadian high pressure (~1045 mb) from the Northern Plains into the Midwest Friday into Saturday. Additionally, behind the weekend system, a large trough builds into the region through next week. This combination (along with any snowpack) will allow for very cold temperatures to continue from Saturday through at least the middle of next week. Highs may remain below freezing for an extended period of time from Friday night through Tuesday night (maybe even longer) with extended model guidance showing highs in the 30s through late next week. Meanwhile, lows in the low- mid teens inland (lower 20s along the coast) Friday night, low- mid teens inland and low-mid 20s along the coast Saturday night, lower teens W to mid 20s E Sunday night, and low-mid single digits Monday night are forecast. This doesn't factor in wind chill, which could be below zero. This prolonged period of very cold temperatures behind the winter storm could be quite dangerous for those without power. Marine As of 215am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Watches have been issued Friday night for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. - Another period of strong NE winds is likely Sunday as coastal low pressure develops along the stalled surface front. High pressure moved offshore yesterday, allowing SW winds to develop across the region. However, winds are not quite as strong as previously modeled so will cancel the ongoing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for the middle bay and northern coastal waters. Waves are around 2 ft with seas 3-4 ft. A quieter period is in store for today and Friday despite a frontal passage late tonight. The initial effects from this front will be a wind shift to NW but speeds remain 5-10 kt. Strong cold advection moves into the region Friday night with rapidly strengthening winds after sunset with sustained NNW winds 25-30 kt and gusts to 35 kt over the bay and southern coastal waters with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions elsewhere. In coordination with neighboring offices, have issued a Gale Watch for the Ches Bay and southern coastal waters Friday evening through the overnight hours. Confidence in seeing sustained Gale conditions is somewhat lower for the northern coastal waters so will let subsequent shifts assess the potential for Gale headlines there. Winds decrease below Gale thresholds on Saturday but will remain solid SCA. Uncertainty increases thereafter regarding some timing and strength issues with the development and track of coastal low pressure Sunday into Monday. Regardless, it appears that at least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will persist into early next week with Gales possible over portions of the area. Strong cold advection returns on the back side of the departing low through sunrise Tuesday. Waves and seas will build along with the stronger winds early Saturday and likely peak on Sunday in the 3-5 ft and 6-9 ft ranges, respectively. Freezing spray will be a concern as well, especially Monday night as cold advection ramps back up. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ021>025. NC...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NCZ012>014-030-031. VA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Marine Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ANZ656-658. |
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