Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Morning. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N With Gusts Up To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Showers. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Morning. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 239pm EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No significant forecast changes .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected this weekend into Monday. 2) Seasonable temperatures and dry next week. As of 235pm EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled weather pattern with cooler and wetter conditions is expected this weekend into Monday. A series of cold fronts will bring about a stark change in the weather pattern compared to the above average heat we are seeing today. The first cold front will slowly pass through the area overnight, then is expected to stall out over the Carolinas tomorrow and Sunday. This will be the weaker of the two fronts, likely thanks to a lack of upper level support. This initial push has a rather flat trough aloft with it, which will only be enough to take the Mid- Atlantic from a ridge to nearly zonal flow. Isolated showers associated with the system could impact the far northern counties as early as this evening with increasing chances after 2am. Scattered showers will continue to impact the northern half of the area through mid-day tomorrow before eventually expanding southward later in the day. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for this first batch of showers is relatively low with most likely seeing less than 0.5". Since the FA should be north of the front and cloudy, rainy conditions are expected for most of the day, temps will be much cooler than today. Highs will only be in the low to mid 60s along and north of I-64 and around 70 to the mid 70s to the south. A second cold front will approach the area Sunday into Monday. Tropical moisture streaming up between the fronts will bring additional rain to the area late Sat night through Sunday. The initial batch of widespread precipitation likely moves in from the SW after midnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, with categorical (80- 90%) Probability of Precipitation spreading E/NE through the day Sunday. Precip will gradually clear from NW to SE late Sunday through Monday morning as strong high pressure builds in behind the second front. The trend of higher rain totals for this weekend largely being confined to the the southeastern half of the area has held with the 12z model suite. NBM probs for >1" of rain are 75-90% for areas along and SE of US- 360. Probs for more than 2" are sitting at 50-60% for roughly the same area. Areas NW of US-360 could still see an inch or more, but probs are more like 30-50%. The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast lines up pretty well with this at 1-1.5" SE of US-360 and 0.5-1" northeast of it. The chance for thunderstorms remains quite low due to cool surface temps, but a brief increase in CAPE across the far SE Sunday afternoon could allow for an embedded storm or two. Speaking of temps: again cut a few degrees off the NBM guidance, with highs ranging from the mid- upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temperatures and dry next week. A strong area of cool high pressure (1020-1025mb) builds in behind the second front while subtle troughing sets up aloft. High pressure remains in control for the bulk of the week, leading to a nice fall week. Highs will stay in the mid 60s to mid 70s through the week, which is around the average for this time of year. Chilly overnight temperatures are expected as well, especially for the piedmont where temps in the 40s are expected all week. Statistical guidance even suggests upper 30s in the piedmont for the Wednesday morning low. Marine As of 235pm EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River late tonight into Saturday. - A stronger front crosses the waters early next week, and likely brings additional Small Craft Advisories for a majority of the local waters. This afternoon, high pressure (~1024 mb) is centered well off the Southeast US coast. Meanwhile, a cold front is located off to the NW (Upstate NY down into the OH Valley). Winds are primarily out of the SSW, averaging ~10 to 15 knots. Seas are running 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 3 to 4 feet offshore, waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 2 feet. The cold front will continue to approach and drop S-SE into the local area late tonight into early Saturday morning. A shallow Cold Air Advection surge is still anticipated in the wake of the cold front. Winds will become N to NNE and rapidly increase to 15 to 20 knots in the wake of the front with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. The highest wind gusts will be across the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. Winds gradually diminish later Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon and become NE. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River late tonight into Saturday morning. A few 25+ knot gusts are also possible over the coastal waters (especially north), but due to the limited duration ~3-4 hours mainly between 09-12z Saturday, opted against any SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) at this time. With the increasing winds, seas will also build to 3 to 4 feet nearshore and 4 to 5 feet offshore. Seas may try to approach 5 feet out 20 nm across the northern half of the coastal waters. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return later later Saturday and continue into Monday with high pressure briefly returning. A stronger cold front is forecast to cross the coast later Monday followed by a stronger Cold Air Advection surge Monday night into Tuesday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely for most of the marine area with a NNE wind of 20 to 25 knots gusting to near 30 knots. Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 6 feet N to 5 to 7 feet S. A Moderate Rip Risk is expected at all area beaches on Saturday. A Moderate Rip Risk continues for the northern beaches with a Low Risk for the southern beaches on Sunday. Climate Record highs for today (10/2): - RIC: 98 (2019) - ORF: 93 (2019) - SBY: 96 (2019) - ECG: 93 (1986) NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 1pm EDT Saturday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 4pm EDT Saturday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 1pm EDT Saturday for ANZ639. |
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