Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming E Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Morning. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256pm EDT Monday August 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures, dew points, and rain chances have decreased for Tuesday. An unsettled pattern continues through the rest of the week. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat and humidity persists today with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon into this evening. 2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week. However, uncertainty remains high. As of 255pm EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon into this evening. Afternoon weather analysis showed generally zonal flow aloft with a shortwave moving from OH into WV noted by a change to NW flow aloft. At the surface, the Bermuda high continues to remain off the SE coast. As such, hot and humid conditions continue with temps as of 2 PM in the lower 90s and heat indices around 100F. Afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s are expected with heat indices around 100F. The latest radar indicates a healthy MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) across WV into far S PA. This line of storms is much more robust than CAMs showed. As such, it remains unclear how much this line of storms will hold together as it crosses the mountains of WV/VA. CAMs generally show only isolated convection east of the mountains later this afternoon into this evening apart from the ARW which keeps convection going all the way to the coast. While mesoanalysis shows some lingering MLCIN across SE VA/NE NC, it also shows S winds east of the mountains (presumably due to a lee trough) and 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With S winds (as opposed to SW winds that CAMs had) and an unstable environment east of the mountains with favorable low-level instability along and north of I-64, it is entirely possible that CAMs are wrong and this line of storms continues into central VA later this afternoon into this evening. If it does, a severe risk for predominantly damaging winds will exist. Currently Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms along and north of I-64 with a portion of Dorchester County in a slight risk (level 2/5). However, if the storms do make it across the mountains, this threat may need to be expanded and/or increased. Outside of the severe potential, locally heavy rainfall is possible with any storms. WPC has a marginal ERO across far northern portions of the area to account for this potential. Convection should taper off overnight with remnant cloud cover potentially lingering. Lows tonight in the 70s are expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week. However, uncertainty remains high. NW/WNW flow aloft develops Tuesday through the remainder of the week as a ridge aloft builds across the central CONUS while a trough lingers across New England and Canada. At the surface, the Bermuda high will start to break down. This will allow for an active pattern to persist with a daily potential for isolated to scattered storms each afternoon/evening. CAMs show multiple rounds of MCSs developing in the WNW/NW flow aloft. However, where they track and when they develop will have large implications to the local weather. Most CAMs have an overturned airmass moving into the region in the wake of today's MCS for Tue. As such, HREF (as well as most individual models/CAMs) show dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F Tuesday afternoon (as opposed to the mid 70s from the NBM) and lower surface temps. Therefore, have blended in lower guidance for dew points but held off (for now) on dropping high temps by more than a degree or two due to uncertainty regarding whether or not partial clearing can occur during the afternoon. This resulted in heat indices remaining below heat advisory criteria. As such, no heat headlines will be issued at this time. Will note that latest guidance keeps temps even cooler than the current forecast. In general, highs in lower 90s are the most likely scenario with locally upper 80s or mid 90s possible Tue. Additionally, as a result of the overturned airmass, widespread cloud cover and mixed dew points could result in very little instability Tuesday afternoon. HREF mean CAPE only shows around 500 J/kg for most of the area (which for August is very low). As such, confidence in storm development (and especially severe potential) for Tuesday has decreased substantially. Nevertheless, Storm Prediction Center has maintained a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms across most of the area with a slight risk (level 2/5) across portions of Piedmont. WPC has also maintained a marginal ERO across the area for Tue. Storm Prediction Center has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM Probability of Precipitation (15-35%) to account for the potential for isolated to scattered storms. By Tue, models should have a better handle on what weather we can expect for Wed. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains similar with only a slight chance (15-20%) for a few isolated showers or storms on Thu with a better chance on Fri (30-50% PoPs). Outside of convection, temps remain near normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday and Thu and mid 80s to lower 90s Fri. Marine As of 225pm EDT Monday... Key Message: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of the week. Bermuda high pressure remains centered well offshore this afternoon, with weak surface low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes. A weak surface trough is noted over inland portions of the area. The wind is generally W to SW 5-10 kt. Seas are 1-2ft nearshore, 2-3ft offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches Bay (1-2 ft lower Bay). With a weak pressure gradient, expect the winds to shift to the S-SE at ~10 kt later this afternoon into this evening. Convective coverage is expected to be isolated to locally scattered this evening with a heavy lean toward the northern Ches Bay and Atlantic zones for better coverage. A few hi-res models bring the convection as far south as the mouth of the Bay and adjacent rivers and coastal zones but those solutions appear to be outliers from the consensus. That said, locally gusty winds are the main threat from any convection that manages to move into the region this evening. A brief wind shift to NW 8-12kt remains possible early Tuesday morning as the weak surface trough tracks across the coast, before becoming light onshore and then southerly by Tuesday evening. Latest CAM guidance has backed off considerably on the potential for scattered to numerous storms on Tuesday. Debris cloudiness from MCS(s) to the W and NW of the area will likely limit instability and subsequent storm coverage and intensity Tuesday afternoon and evening. Greater convective coverage is possible on Wednesday but with low confidence on the details. A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by late Friday into next weekend. Models are generally keeping the winds rather light, but if the front actually pushes south of the waters, this would potentially bring SCAs, but uncertainty is high at this range. Seas throughout the week will be ~2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in the offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches Bay. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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