Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 634am EDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Synopsis A warm front lifts north through the region today. Warm weather is expected Saturday through Monday. Isolated showers are possible later Sunday, with a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night as a cold front crosses the area. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening As of 330am EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Increased fire danger today across central Virginian, southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. GOES water vapor channels depict dry NW flow across the Mid- Atlantic region ahead of a ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a trough offshore. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the NC coast. Partly cloudy to mostly clear early this morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s N, to the mid 40s to lower 50s S. The upper ridge builds in from the W today and surface high pressure will settle farther off the Southeast coast. This will allow a warm front to lift across the area. Some mid and high clouds will pass across western and central portions of the area this morning, and arrive later and linger into the afternoon from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore. There is a very minimal chance of a few light showers or sprinkles over the MD Eastern Shore. However, this will be limited by a rather dry sub-cloud layer below 750mb. Becoming breezy in the wake of the warm front across central/SE VA and NE NC with a SW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20- 25 mph. This will combine with min RH values of 25-30% resulting in increased fire danger. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday As of 330am EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Very warm and mainly dry Saturday. - Warmth continues into Sunday with increased cloud cover. Surface high pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast tonight into Saturday as the upper ridge amplifies over the East Coast. Partly cloudy and mild tonight with lows in the mid 50s to around 60F. Partly to mostly sunny, very warm, and breezy Saturday. Forecast highs are primarily in the upper 70s to lower 80s (cooler at the immediate coast). A SW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph is expected late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Not quite as dry with minimum RH values ranging from 35-40% inland to 40-50% toward the coast. Continued partly cloudy mild Saturday night with lows in the upper 50s to around 60F. A southern stream shortwave undercuts the ridge Sunday. This will lead to an increase in clouds. However, precipitation chances are limited, with most locations likely remaining dry during the day Sunday. Still warm, just not quite as warm as Saturday given more cloud cover. Forecast highs are in the upper 70s to around 80F (again cooler at the immediate coast). A breezy SW wind will continue, but not as dry as 2m dewpoints rise into the 50s. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday As of 330am EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures continue Monday. - There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday/Monday night association with a cold front. - Seasonal temperatures and dry Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridge breaks down Sunday night into Monday ahead of a developing trough over the Great Lakes. This will allow for a strengthening 200mb jet with the RRQ of that jet sliding across the Mid-Atlantic in the Monday afternoon/evening timeframe. Overall, Probability of Precipitation for showers are 20-40% Sunday night into Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and evening, showers should increase in coverage with thunderstorms possible. Kinematic fields are supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, there still some question with regard to timing and how much surface instability develops given that clouds and some showers potentially precede the better forcing. The cold front sweeps across the area Monday night with drier and seasonal conditions arriving Tuesday/Wednesday. Another warming trend is possible by late week ahead of another cold front. Marine As of 100am EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James through mid-morning for gusty southerly winds. - SW winds increase late tonight into early Saturday with additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible for the lower bay, James River, and northern coastal waters. - A prolonged period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is possible Sunday night into Tue, as a cold front moves across the local waters. Latest analysis reveals 1030+mb surface high pressure lingering offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast this morning. To the west, deepening low pressure continues to cross the northern plains toward the midwest. The tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasingly breezy SSW winds early this morning through midday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for wind speeds increasing to 15-20 kt across the Chesapeake Bay, lower James, and coastal waters. Winds should gradually diminish after sunrise this morning, as the high slides farther offshore and the gradient slackens a bit. Occasional gustiness to 20-25 kt will be possible, especially nearshore and in the local tidal rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay, but expect predominate conditions remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the late morning through early evening. Later Friday evening into early Saturday, winds veer around to the SSW and increase, again owing to the building ridge offshore and the resultant compressing of the pressure gradient. Local wind probabilities are now at or above 80-90% for winds of 18-20 kt, with gusts to ~25 kt in the bay and James River, and another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) are likely here. Additionally, building seas also expected over the northern coastal waters with increasing easterly swell, and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) are also looking increasingly likely late tonight into Sat morning for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island. Will allow current headlines to expire this morning before any additional headlines are issued. Winds drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Sat late morning through Sunday before S winds become elevated once again Sunday night into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. An area of low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes into interior New England/SE Canada on Mon, dragging its attendant cold front across the local waters Monday evening/early Monday night, with SMW/MWS for crossing showers and storms Monday afternoon and night. Winds likely increase as the veer around to the NNW post-frontal Monday night into Tue. Solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely given the strength of the CAA. Waves and seas of 1-3 ft are expected through today. Waves build to 2-3 ft tonight with seas building to 3-4 ft. Seas of 4-5 ft are possible Fri night into early Sat morning. Another period of elevated seas is expected Sunday into Tuesday as seas build to 4-6 ft due to elevated winds ahead of and behind a cold front. Fire Weather As of 330am EDT Friday... Dry conditions continue today. Minimum RH values are expected to drop to 25-30% across central/SE VA and NE NC. This will combine with a SW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. Additionally, 10hr fuels have had a few days of drying. Therefore, an Increased Fire Danger statement will be issued for these locations. Farther NE, more cloud cover is expected. Therefore, the wind will be less and minimum RH values will be slightly higher. A breezy SW wind will continue Saturday. However, minimum RH values are forecast to be higher. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ060-061-065>069-079>083-087>090-092-093- 095>098-513>516-523>525. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for ANZ631- 632-634-638. |
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