Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers Late In The Evening. Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. Wave Detail: N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1046am EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Synopsis A warm front lifts north today, and then crosses the local area as cold front Saturday. Intermittent chances for rainfall are possible today through Saturday. High pressure builds back into the area Sunday into early next week, leading to dry conditions. Another system may impact the area Tuesday into the middle of next week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 1045am EST Friday... Key Message: - A warm front moves through today, bringing chances for light rain and mild temperatures. - Higher rain chances and continued mild temperatures expected ahead of and along a cold front tonight. A CAD-like airmass is holding on across the forecast area this morning with high pressure to our N and E. A warm front is situated south of the area, which should begin lifting northward through the day. Light rain has been ongoing over far southern VA and into NE NC and have upped Probability of Precipitation through the morning hours to account for near-term radar trends. High pressure will slide further offshore today as a trough moving through the Plains advances eastward. The aforementioned warm front associated with this system will lift through the area later today, bringing our first chance of rain by early afternoon. At this time, this rain appears very light and recent model runs have trended on the drier side. After this initial round of light rainfall, a brief reprieve is expected ahead of the next round as a wave of low pressure and cold front approach the area. Higher rain chances are forecast for tonight and into tomorrow morning as a surface low lifts ENE towards the area. The almost eastward track of this weak low will allow the warm front to remain near the area, which will help enhance rainfall overnight. Have removed any mention of thunder for tonight despite the more favorable upper- level ascent and nearing surface low as only very marginal instability will be in place and it is not a favorable timeframe for convection. The highest rain chances are concentrated across VA and the Eastern Shore and start to lessen across far southern VA and NE NC due to the more favorable environment to the north. Not expecting much Quantitative Precipitation Forecast with this system, with storm total amounts ranging from ~0.15" to 0.45". A few areas could see rainfall amounts nearing ~0.50", but confidence in the exact locations of these higher localized totals is low. With light southerly flow, rain, and cloud cover, overnight temperatures tonight will only cool into the 50s, with some upper 40s possible for the northern counties and on the Eastern Shore. Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night As of 235am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Rain tapers off Saturday afternoon, followed by dry/cool conditions Saturday night into Sunday. - Mild temperatures Saturday, followed by seasonable temperatures Sunday. Chilly overnight low temperatures expected this weekend. The cold front will push through the forecast area early Saturday morning into the afternoon. A few showers are possible along the front as it advances through the area, but these showers will again generally be light and bring little in the way of measurable rainfall to the area. Rain will start to taper off from NW to SE on Saturday afternoon as the front makes its way offshore. Despite the rain and lingering cloud cover, temperatures are still forecast to reach the 60s to even lower 70s across the south. N/NW of the frontal boundary, temperatures will be cooler and may struggle to get out of the 50s. A drier, cooler airmass will filter in behind the front on Saturday night. Chilly overnight temperatures are expected Saturday night, with lows bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s across the northern counties/MD Eastern Shore and the mid 30s to low 40s across the remaining portions of the local area. High pressure will build across the region on Sunday, with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions returning. With high pressure overhead Sunday night, clear skies and light winds will prevail, resulting in a favorable environment for radiational cooling. Another chilly night is forecast for Sunday, with lows dropping into the 30s again (lower to mid 40s along the coast). Long Term - Monday Through Thursday As of 235am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Dry weather into early next week. - Another storm system potentially approaches Tuesday into the middle of next week. Temperatures will gradually moderate back into the 60s Monday and Tuesday ahead of another possible disturbance that will potentially approach the region around mid-week. There continues to be some disagreement between global models in the timing and strength of this next system, though there is agreement that this system will bring the next round of measurable rainfall to the area. Guidance is struggling with how the upper-level pattern evolves, which will have implications on how the forecast plays out ahead of and during the Thanksgiving holiday. Regardless of the exact details, there is a signal that warmer temperatures will continue through Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures returning by late week as an expansive upper trough digs down across the Eastern United States. Marine As of 235am EST Friday... Key Messages: - Benign boating conditions are expected to continue today. - A cold front crosses the local waters on Saturday with the potential for Small Craft conditions from Saturday through Saturday night. - Mainly sub-advisory conditions are expected from Sunday through the middle of next week. Benign marine conditions prevail early this morning with N-NE winds around 5 kt as high pressure is centered just offshore. Winds turn to the S-SW today but remain below 10 kt. The pressure gradient will tighten tonight and early Saturday as a weak low pressure system approaches from the west but wind speeds through 12z/7am Sat will remain no higher than 10-15 kt. The low then moves offshore on Saturday which will drag a cold front through the waters between 8 AM-2 PM. This is the main forecast concern through the weekend, as winds turn to the north following the FROPA and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for a 3-6 hour period on the bay/ocean. Winds become NNE-NE and diminish to ~15 kt by Sat night as the pressure gradient slackens. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for the bay and Currituck Sound, but will hold off on any headlines since it is 30- 36 hours away and it looks like a short-lived, low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) event. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) may also be needed for the southern coastal waters late Sat/Sat night as seas build to 4-5 ft with the winds becoming NNE-NE. Seas should top out at 3-4 ft north of Cape Charles with waves in the bay building to 2-3 ft during this period. High pressure builds into the area on Sunday with improving marine conditions expected. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected from Mon-Wednesday with the next chance of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) being late Wednesday into Thu as a stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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