Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THU

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ531 Forecast Issued: 803 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
Tonight...W Winds 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Early This Evening. Waves 1 Ft. Widespread Showers And Scattered Tstms Early This Evening, Then Scattered Showers And Tstms After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt... Diminishing To Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.
Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.
Sun...W Winds 5 Kt...Becoming S. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931pm EDT Wednesday July 17 2024

Synopsis
A strong cold front will slowly cross the area through tonight. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will accompany it overnight. Cool high pressure builds back into the area from the north Thursday as the front sinks south and east of region. The front will remain stalled to our south Friday before retreating back to the north this weekend into early next week.

Near Term - Through Thursday
A cold front, currently over southwest PA, will push through the region tonight. The strongest of the thunderstorms are across the Delmarva Peninsula. Scattered showers extend from northeastern West Virginia and across western and central Maryland ahead of the approaching cold front. Once convection wanes or dissipates later this evening, patchy fog could form in most places that received rainfall during this past afternoon and evening. Lows will drop into the 60s west of the Blue Ridge, and remain in the 70s to the east.

The surface cold front will likely be south of the area by Thursday morning. However, some guidance is still slow enough with the frontal zone progression, combined with shortwaves aloft, that showers and a few thunderstorms could still develop through Thursday, mainly across the southern half of the area. It will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 80s for most, although some breaks of sun could allow some northern areas to reach 90.

Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
Previous discussion... Lower dew points will gradually advect in and will be most noticeable Thursday night when lows drop into the 60s for most of the area, with 50s in the mountains.

High pressure will build north of the area and the front will reach its most southern extent Friday before stalling against the Bermuda high. Therefore, dry and seasonable conditions should prevail, although some increased cloud cover may persist in southern areas. Some guidance has moisture advancing back northward as quickly as Friday night, so we have some slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the southern half of the area.

Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
Key Messages:

1) No excessive heat! Temperatures will remain at or slightly below normal through much of the extended period.

2) Increased confidence for daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a stalled front remains nearby.

It's a typical stagnant Summertime pattern as we head into the weekend and throughout much of next week. Synoptically, we'll continue to monitor a deepening upper-level trough over the central Mississippi River Valley as it becomes blocked by the ridge over the Rockies and central Atlantic. As a result, a stationary boundary will remain draped across the Virginia and North Carolina border before slowly drifting north as a warm front Monday and Tuesday. Moisture will increase across the region leading to an uptick in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The highest coverage of thunderstorms appears to be Tuesday and Wednesday as the warm front lifts through and then eventually stalls near the region. This is highlighted by both the CSU and NSSL machine-learning probabilities which suggest a non-zero chance of severe weather during this time.

As for temperatures, expect values closer to seasonable norms this weekend into early next week. Highs will push into the mid to upper 80s Saturday, with upper 80s and low 90s Sunday mainly east of the Allegheny Front. Temperatures come up a few more degrees Monday through Wednesday as the warm front crosses the region. This aligns with the 6-10 day and 8-14 day trends from the Climate Prediction Center with regards to temperature outlooks. With moisture increasing, we may get close to Heat Advisory criteria mid to late next week, although some uncertainty remains in regards to the intensity of heat during this time frame. Overnight lows through the period will fall into the mid to upper 60s and low 70s with light winds.

Marine
Winds will diminish behind the cold front tonight. Winds become northerly Thursday behind the front. A few thunderstorms are possible near southern Maryland through Thursday but seem unlikely to be strong. There's still some potential for northerly channeling down the bay Thursday night, but it would be marginal for an advisory. Lighter winds are expected Friday and Friday night as high pressure builds to the north and the front stalls to the south.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds out of the south are expected this weekend into early next week. An SMW cannot be ruled out for any potential strong thunderstorms that look to Probability of Precipitation up during the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest potential for a thunderstorm looks to come Monday through Wednesday as a warm front lifts into the region.

Climate
Here are daily high temperature records for July 17.

Records (RERs) are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference. A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record.

***WEDNESDAY, JULY 17TH, 2024*** LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 102F (1980) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 100F (1997)+ Baltimore (BWI) 101F (1988) Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1988)+ Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1988)+ Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1900) Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1953)+

NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Thursday for ANZ534-537- 543.