Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358am EDT Tuesday Mar 25 2025 Synopsis Weak high pressure will build across the area today. Another frontal system will pass through to the south tonight into early Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds for the second half of the work week while eventually retreating offshore by Friday. A backdoor front approaches from the north before settling nearby on Sunday. A wetter frontal system nears the region by early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight Current observations over the region show quite a west/east dew point gradient tied to a slow moving cold front. Behind this boundary, the air mass is very dry characterized by dew point depressions around 20 to 35 degrees. Farther to the east, a much moister environment is in place with some patchy fog over far southern Maryland into the Chesapeake Bay. The latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows a pencil thin line of weak echoes east of the Washington, D.C. metro area. Based on nearby observational trends, this is the cold front which should eventually exit into the Eastern Shore before daybreak. Precipitable water values drop off considerably in the wake which will usher in mostly clear skies into the morning hours. Despite 1000-500 mb thicknesses dropping by around 6 to 8 dm over the 24 hour period, temperatures will not cool much owing to post-frontal downsloping effects. Expect mostly sunny skies to start off the day with temperatures starting off in the upper 30s to mid 40s (upper 20s to mid 30s for mountain locations). The dry nature of the air mass combined with a westerly downslope wind will help crank afternoon temperatures back into the mid 50s to low 60s, locally cooler in the mountains. Winds during the afternoon hours may gust up to around 20 to 25 mph before decreasing at nightfall. Expect increasing mid/high clouds through the afternoon and evening as the next system scoots by to the south. Given southward trends in the latest guidance, the focus for shower activity is generally well south of I-66. The current forecast package spreads precipitation from the Potomac Highlands eastward across I-64 toward southern Maryland. Total rainfall amounts will largely range from a trace up to a quarter inch. Along the Allegheny Front, enough cold air in place results in a rain/snow mix tonight. Total snow amounts should remain light, generally staying under 0.5 inches across the highest elevations of the Alleghenies. Forecast lows across the region will generally be in the 30s, with mid/upper 20s for the higher elevations. Any rainfall across far southern Maryland should wind down during the second half of the overnight hours. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night As the frontal system continues to drop toward the southeastern U.S., west-northwesterly flow picks up in earnest over the Mid- Atlantic region. Models continue to advertise a rather dry air mass characterized by dew point depressions into the 35 to 40 degree range (mid/upper 50s temperatures with mid/upper teens dew points). Forecast soundings are deeply mixed which will help transport some of the higher momentum air at the top of the mixed layer down to the surface. Amidst relative humidity values in the 20 to 25 percent range, west-northwesterlies are expected to gust up to 20 to 30 mph (up to 40 mph across the terrain). Given very dry antecedent conditions, a renewed fire weather threat will potentially materialize (see the Fire Weather section below for more information). Of note, did aim toward the driest solutions given recent history and what has verified. Heading into Wednesday night, winds drop off considerably as a broad anticyclone approaches from the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. Light winds coupled with mostly clear skies will yield a night of adequate radiational cooling effects. Most should see low temperatures in the upper 20s to around freezing, with mid 30s more likely in the urban corridors. High pressure remains in charge into Thursday which will favor mostly sunny skies and lighter winds than previous days. There is reasonably high confidence in the temperature forecast given rather low ensemble spread. Most spots with gain a few degrees relative to Wednesday as highs push into the upper 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, the Alleghenies could see readings as high as 5 to 10 degrees warmer given a decrease in cloud cover. This would bring temperatures well into the 40s. The dome of high pressure slowly moves toward the coast on Thursday night which will shift winds over to southwesterly. This raises overnight lows back into the mid 30s to low 40s. Long Term - Friday Through Monday High pressure will move to the east Friday to allow for a disturbance to move by across parts of our northern zones. A few showers could develop in the northern Appalachians and along the Mason-Dixon region Friday afternoon and evening. Highs will be milder with temperatures reaching the middle 50s in the west to the middle to upper 60s near the Chesapeake Bay. Saturday should be generally dry with high pressure building briefly into the region. We can't rule out a stray shower in the Mason-Dixon region again. Temperatures will be warmer than Friday with values reaching the lower to middle 70s. It will be cooler in the mountains. A warm front should evolve and push north across the region on Sunday. There is a better chance for showers in all areas with the liklihood in the Appalachians. Highs should push well into the 70s and perhaps reach the 80 degree mark. The main low pressure system track should remain just to our north on Monday; however, an increase in warmth and humidity the previous two days ahead of an approaching strong cold front should provide ample chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms could be on the strong side. High temperatures should be in the 70s in all areas and perhaps a few 80s once again. The cold front could pass through late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Marine A slow moving cold front is currently moving into the Chesapeake Bay. The main focus of this boundary is a large drop in dew points. In the wake, there will be some uptick in westerly winds which warranted Small Craft Advisories over the northern/central tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay. These advisories are in place from 10am until 6pm today. Winds decrease into tonight before ramping up again as a frontal system passes off to the southeast. Small Craft Advisories may be required midday Wednesday into Wednesday night as northwesterlies gust to around 20 to 25 knots. Winds again diminish into Thursday in response to high pressure moving through. No marine hazards Friday through Saturday night. Winds southwest 5 to 10 knots Friday through Saturday night. Fire Weather Minimum RH values through Thursday will remain very dry, averaging around 20 to 25 percent. This is accompanied by moderate overnight recoveries. Given a lack of rainfall across the Shenandoah Valley northward into the eastern West Virginia panhandle, these areas will be ripe for additional elevated fire weather concerns during this period. Winds increase some today, while further increasing on Wednesday as a frontal system exits offshore. Northwesterlies may gust to around 25 to 35 mph, which coupled with the low RH values and dry fuels will support elevated fire weather danger. Will continue to monitor the situation, but it seems likely a fire weather product will be needed for Wednesday. Winds decrease on Thursday as high pressure settles over the region. The next shot for wetting rains does not come until early next week. Thus, the situation will bear watching as the area remains anomalously dry until then. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ530>533-535-536-538>541. |
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