Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Tue...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely . Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321pm EDT Sunday May 24 2020
High pressure centered off the New England coast will remain wedged over the area through Memorial Day. The high will shift southward toward midweek before shifting further eastward into the Atlantic late in the work week. A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes heading into next weekend.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
High pressure is centered off the New England coast this afternoon as low pressure remains well east of the Delmarva. This places our region in an easterly flow regime with has wedged in plentiful clouds along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Further west into the lower Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Highlands, partly to mostly sunny skies were able to emerge for much of the morning, which has helped build some instability given ample low level moisture and temperatures in the 70s. As a result, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms have been the story the last few hours in the portion of the CWA. While winds aloft are unimpressive, along with mid-level lapse rates, the potential does exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any stronger storms. Do think the bigger threat would be locally heavy rain resulting in an isolated instance of flooding, particularly over Highland and Augusta Counties in Virginia. This is due to the weak steering flow, potential for training storms, and saturated soils from recent rains keeping FFG at around an inch to an inch in a half.
Elsewhere, cloud cover and cooler than normal temperatures will be the story the remainder of this afternoon given the moist easterly flow. Highs east of the mountains will struggle to top 70 degrees, while low to middle 70s will be more prevalent over our southwestern zones that are not rain contaminated.
Showers and storms will wane early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low clouds and patchy fog will return overnight, favoring the areas that see rainfall today. Low temperatures will hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low level flow remains easterly through Monday morning before taking on a more southeasterly component. Pesky clouds will hang around through early afternoon before starting to loosen their grip, becoming more broken to scattered in nature with peaks of sun possible. As mid to upper ridging builds aloft on Monday with the surface high to our east northeast, moderating temperatures are expected with highs in the mid to upper 70s area wide. The ridging aloft should act to suppress much in the way of any shower and thunderstorm activity, but with less cloud cover and a bit more instability once again, will carry low end chance POPs along the Alleghenies should terrain circulations help overcome this.
Dry conditions expected to persist Monday night through Tuesday night as the high over the Atlantic shifts further southward and winds locally turn out of the south. A continued moderation in temperatures is also expected, with more sunshine during the day on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s with a slight increase in humidity. Lows both Monday/Tuesday night will be mild in the lower 60s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
The ridge axis along the eastern seaboard of the United States will begin to break down and head east (slightly) during the second half of the week as shortwave energy tracking across the Canadian border begins to dig/amplify. That's what it will take to dislodge subsidence and bring a frontal boundary at least to, if not through, the area. Will have increasing Probability of Precipitation daily through Friday, largely with a diurnal component to it. The weekend should be drier, depending on how far southeast the front pushes. Temperatures will be fairly close to normal.
Easterly breezes will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds tonight through Memorial Day as high pressure to our northeast continues to wedge itself over the region. Fair weather expected to continue Monday night through Tuesday night as winds remain light out of the south.
Overall wind field should remain under thresholds during the midweek, but a brief wind gust possible near pop-up showers/thunderstorms.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.