Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Ne Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Isolated Showers. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt... Increasing To 30 Kt Late. Waves 3 Ft. Showers. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Thu...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt...Becoming Se 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941pm EDT Tuesday Oct 28 2025 Synopsis High pressure will remain over Quebec through Wednesday while low pressure passes off the Southeast coast. A second low will move from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure will build south of the area Friday into Saturday, but another disturbance may quickly approach from the northwest the second half of the weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning Lots of radar returns across the region this evening, which is considerable further north than any of the available guidance. 00Z IAD sounding showed a shallow thick layer of clouds between 4.5-7.5 kft, thick enough to see very light rain or sprinkles reaching in some places. Some of these echoes may dissipate in the next few hours as guidance indicate some drying occurring in the 850 mb layer. Hwoever, after 06Z tonight, guidance indicate significant moistening above 925 mb which may result in increased radar returns above a shallow cool air near the surface. Have updated Probability of Precipitation to include slight chance to chance PoPs tonight into Wednesday morning. Further moistening occurs after 18Z Wednesday with most places likely to see measureable precip. Previous afd... A large, negative tilt upper trough is diving southeastward across the Great Plains down the east side of a broad ridge over the West Coast. To the east, a highly anomalous upper-level ridge is stationed over James Bay, with an upper trough/low over the Carolinas, and a retrograding upper trough/low was moving into Pennsylvania. At the surface, a large area of high pressure over Quebec extends a ridge axis down the east side of the Appalachians. Low pressure is departing out to sea off the North Carolina coast. Another low is developing over the Arklatex, and Hurricane Melissa is crossing Jamaica. High pressure wedging over the Mid-Atlantic between low pressure in the western Atlantic and another low heading into the mid Mississippi River Valley will result in northeast breezes, scattered to broken clouds, and potentially a few passing light showers tonight. Low temperatures will range from around freezing over the highest peaks of the Alleghenies to the mid 40s in the major urban centers. Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Thursday Night The retrograding low to the north eventually gets absorbed into the digging trough/closed low that moves across the Plains into the Tennessee Valley. This will be accompanied by a strengthening surface low which will lift across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday. Overrunning moisture gradually increases Wednesday with increasing chances for light showers. Again, there could be some light wintry mix on the highest peaks before warm advection takes over in the afternoon. The main impactful period will be Wednesday night into Thursday as strong ascent and moisture flux overspread the area. Moderate to locally heavy rain can be expected, supported by precipitable water values near 1.5 inches. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible. At this time, the instability appears to be mostly elevated, thus limiting any severe weather threat associated with the dynamic wind fields, though some hi- res guidance has a brief/narrow corridor of near surface-based instability associated with a strongly forced frontal rain band. Generally 1-2 inches of rain is forecast. This should be mostly beneficial given recent dry conditions, though some localized issues could arise where there are heavier rain rates. Will have to monitor trends in easterly upslope areas, as well. Winds will also increase as the low passes, but likely won't reach hazardous levels. The higher ridgetops above 2000 ft could see some gusts over 40 mph, and perhaps on the western slopes (downslope side) of the Alleghenies. Tidal flooding will also be an issue (see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section below). Temperatures, which could be non-diurnal in nature, will be dependent on the low track. Locations which break into the warm sector will reach the 60s Thursday. While timing is still a bit uncertain, we should see improving conditions beginning Thursday afternoon or evening. Remaining precipitation will become focused on the Alleghenies as winds turn westerly. The highest peaks could see a changeover to snow late at night. Westerly winds will begin to increase, but especially so after sunrise Friday. Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday A strong upper-level trough pivots over the East Coast Friday as a low pressure system departs northeast of New England. In the wake of the low pressure system, gusty west winds are expected Friday and Saturday morning. Winds gust 25 to 35 mph on Friday with gusts between 20 and 30 mph on Saturday morning. Due to upslope winds, mountain rain showers are possible each day with some mixed precipitation possible along the highest elevations of the Alleghenies. A weak area of low pressure passes to the south of the forecast area on Sunday with precipitation chances overspreading the area. Another low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes region on Sunday with the associated fronts approaching the Mid- Atlantic into early next week. This will result in lingering precipitation chances. High temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s for most with those in the Alleghenies staying in the 40s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. Marine The gradient between low pressure off the Southeast coast and high pressure over Quebec is resulting in increasing northeasterly winds. 20-30 kt gusts persist through tonight. May actually see winds drop off later tonight into Wednesday as the first low departs out to sea. Gusts will be closer to 20-25 kt. Winds increase again Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure moves from the Tennessee Valley across the Mid- Atlantic. The could be a brief period of near-gale conditions, but confidence is not high enough for a watch. There may also be some embedded thunderstorms, or at least heavier rains. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will likely continue Thursday night as winds turn westerly. West winds gust 20 to 30 knots on Friday before weakening slightly and gusting 15 to 20 knots overnight. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through early Saturday afternoon. Tides / Coastal Flooding Have updated tidal forecast and upgraded Anne Arundel County to a Coastal Flood Warning where confidence continues to increase in a solid moderate coastal flood event. Previous afd...After tides level off a bit tonight, peak tide levels are forecast Wednesday night through Thursday night as low pressure moves across the area. If the track of the low remains inland and winds turn southerly, some locations could even reach moderate flood stage. Water levels will decline rapidly by Friday as winds turn to the west. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Wednesday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Warning from 2pm Wednesday to 8am EDT Friday for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT Wednesday for MDZ016-018. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for MDZ018. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT Wednesday for VAZ057. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for VAZ054. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 536>543. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Wednesday for ANZ535. |
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