Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| Today...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Mon...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely Through The Night. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 345am EDT Sunday July 13 2025 Synopsis A cold front approaches from the west today leading to showers and thunderstorms. The front moves through early next week before stalling to the south through midweek. Another cold front approaches and moves through the region at the end of the week and into the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight An upper level trough pushes a surface front towards the forecast area from the Great Lakes region today, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A warm and moist airmass will yield plenty of instability with model guidance showing 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement on convection initiating along and west of the Blue Ridge during the late afternoon and moving eastward through the evening. The primary hazard associated with convection will be damaging wind gusts with strong to severe thunderstorms capable of downbursts. As storms track east through the evening, a lack of shear will result in convection dissipating or weakening as they reach the metros. In addition to the severe weather threat, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) exceeding 2" will lead to any storms capable of producing heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has the CWA (County Warning Area) in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Flash flooding is possible during heavy rainfall this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 80s for most with isolated locations in the valleys and southern portions of the forecast area reaching the 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front moves through the forecast area and stalls to the south. Shower and thunderstorm chances peak Monday afternoon, mainly southeast of the front along and east of the Blue Ridge. On Tuesday, the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the southern portions of the forecast area as the front stalls nearby. Due to recent rainfall and a warm and humid airmass, some storms may be strong to severe and will be capable of producing heavy rainfall . Isolated instances of flooding are possible with the Weather Prediction Center having most of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Monday. High temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices rising in the upper 90s for most. Overnight lows will be 60s to mid 70s. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday An active summertime pattern continues into the middle to latter portions of next week. A mid/upper ridge across the southeastern U.S. will build northward through Wednesday before amplified northern stream flow begins to approach/near the region. A series of embedded shortwaves in this pattern may increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday onward. Depending on the timing of these systems, the degree of instability, and other mesoscale factors will ultimately dictate the level of impact across the Mid- Atlantic region. Given this is several days out in time, many of these details are difficult to resolve in such timescales. For Wednesday, despite the building of heights, a nearby frontal zone which stalls earlier in the week is extended to linger close to the area. This feature is expected to lift northward as a warm front on Wednesday leading to an increasing risk of showers/thunderstorms. Such a risk of storms increases through the week as the next cold front slowly approaches from the west. Global guidance does not bring this frontal system through the area until the first half of next weekend. Until then, daily high temperatures should rise into the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As usual, mountain locales should be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler each day. Marine Light winds are expected today over the waters with high pressure building to the southwest. Winds remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria each day through early next week, blowing 5 to 10 knots each day. A cold front approaching the forecast area will likely lead to SMWs being needed Sunday afternoon and into the overnight. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday as the cold front moves through the area and stalls to the south. SMWs are possible both days. As a stalled frontal zone to the south lifts northward across the waters on Wednesday, expect an uptick in southerly winds. Consequently, some channeling effects are possible Wednesday evening through Thursday, particularly over the more southern waters. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for this uptick. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms may impact the waters each afternoon/evening, particularly by Thursday. Tides / Coastal Flooding A prolonged period of southeasterly winds will lead to elevated tidal anomalies today and into early next week. This carries most of the tidal locations into Action stage, particularly during the higher of the two astronomical high tide cycles. Sensitive locations, such as Annapolis, are forecast to stay just below Minor stage during the high tide cycles Sunday and Monday morning. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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