Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...S Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt...Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329pm EDT Sunday August 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... With convection forming earlier than expected, have made multiple updates to the forecast package to include this earlier timing. This has especially impacted the aviation forecasts for the 6 terminals across the region. Flood Watches remain in effect from the Blue Ridge westward. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Repetitive rounds of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms could lead to instances of flash flooding through Monday. - 2) Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into the upcoming weekend ahead. KEY MESSAGE 1...Repetitive rounds of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms could lead to instances of flash flooding through Monday. Relative to high-resolution model guidance, convection has filled out the region much earlier than anticipated. As of the mid-afternoon hours, a swath of heavier showers and thunderstorms are currently working their way across southern Maryland up toward the Baltimore metro area. A number of mesoscale circulations continue to form along this wavy line; however, none have warranted any convective-based warnings at this time. This activity should reach the Chesapeake Bay and north of the Mason-Dixon Line within the next hour. As this complex of showers and thunderstorms exit off to the east, the upstream environment will need to continue to be monitored. The 17Z RAP objective analysis indicates instability has not been fully exhausted as 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of surface- based CAPE (uncapped) remains. In fact, the KLWX radar shows additional cells percolating just north of I-64 in central Virginia. These are largely forming within breaks in the low clouds where instability has been maximized. Expect these to follow a similar north to north-northeastward path over the next couple of hours. For the Blue Ridge westward, overall conditions have been quieter for the most part. Flood Watches remain in effect for the threat of flash flooding through much of this evening. While high-resolution models have struggled with this event, there is a signal for convection to fill in where the Flood Watch exists. Today's thunderstorms will all carry a risk for heavy rainfall given precipitable water (PWAT) values ranging from 2 to 2.25 inches. Sitting near record numbers certainly supports the torrential downpour potential. Earlier activity which moved across I-95 in Virginia produced 2 to 2.50 inches in about 90 minutes. This may warrant an expansion of the current Flood Watch depending on whether locations experience additional rounds of storms. Besides the convective threats, it will be a warm and humid day with highs topping out in the low/mid 80s. Did bring temperatures down a tad given the dense low clouds over much of the region. Off and on again showers continue into the night with forecast lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Despite thick cloud cover overnight, some patchy fog may develop in areas that see winds go calm or feature plenty of ground water from earlier rainfall. The upper low/trough responsible to the shift to active weather will track from the Ohio Valley toward the northeastern U.S. through Monday. Relative to previous days of model runs, there has been a shift to a more progressive regime. The accompanying cold front works its way to near the I-95 corridor on Monday afternoon. This system will continue to have access to highly anomalous tropical moisture with similar PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to today. A flash flood risk exists along/east of I-95, particularly for areas impacted by recent heavy rainfall. Forecast highs on Monday should again reach the low/mid 80s, with mainly 70s across mountain locales. While post-frontal winds become northwesterly, humidity levels remain elevated into the night with lows in the 60s to low 70s (mid/upper 50s across the higher terrain). KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into the upcoming weekend ahead. It's a typical summertime regime for remainder of the workweek into the upcoming weekend as we sit within the warm sector. Synoptically, we are still monitoring the progression of an upper level low pressure system over the Ohio River Valley/central Appalachians. This system will be slow to push eastward heading into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, is a stalled boundary that will act as a catalyst for several pieces of shortwave energy to move along yielding increased chances for showers and thunderstorms during the diurnal periods each day. Tuesday appears to be the driest day of the next 7 days as the front stalls down across central and southeast Virginia with weak high pressure building over north-central PA. Storm chances look to increase Wednesday through late week as pieces of shortwave energy pivot across the trough with mid level flow increasing to 30-40 kts between the stalled front over the Great Lakes and stalled front to our south. The warm and moist airmass combined with these passing waves of energy will yield greater thunderstorm coverage especially during the afternoon and evening periods Wednesday through Sunday. Right now, confidence remains low for severe weather based on coverage, magnitude, and timing during the period. Storm Prediction Center does have a mention for severe weather during the Thursday through Sunday period due to increased instability and mid level flow (30-40kts). This aligns with 15-30 percent probabilities from medium range machine learning outputs during the same timeframe. Based on current 6z/12z outputs, any focus for severe weather would be on Thursday west of the Blue Ridge and again Friday into Saturday as a weak front slides through. Main threats with storms would be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall leading to instances of flash flooding given PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 2 inches. Current drought conditions should help us avoid widespread flooding woes although poor drainage and urban areas will be the most susceptible over the coming days ahead. Expect oppressive humidity with seasonable temperatures in the mid 80s and low 90s. The increased humidity combined with some sunshine Wednesday through Saturday will yield heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s each afternoon east of the mountains. Marine Given southerly channeling effects, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across all waters. Aside from the upper/middle tidal Potomac, these remain in place through the overnight hours. Aside from gradient wind gusts, convection has become rather widespread this afternoon. Stronger storms will require Special Marine Warnings through this evening, some of which could include the threat for waterspouts given some low-level wind shear. A stabilizing boundary layer should limit convective gusts into the overnight hours. Southerly gusts decrease to around 10 to 15 knots for much of Monday, although some upticks could approach advisory levels at times. Otherwise, another round of stronger storms are possible during the afternoon/evening hours. Further Special Marine Warnings may be necessary which would lend itself to hazardous boating/swimming conditions. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds are expected out of the north and northeast Tuesday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southerly channeling is expected Wednesday through Friday for portions of the waters. A few showers & thunderstorms are possible over the waters during this period due to a stalled front nearby. SMWs may be needed to encompass this threat during the afternoon and evening hours. Tides / Coastal Flooding Tidal anomalies will continue to remain elevated through much of the Monday before dropping Tuesday due to a wind shift. Additional coastal flooding is possible at times of high tide as sensitive locations as a result. Anomalies climb again mid to late week. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Monday for MDZ008. Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ501-502-509-510. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ503-504. Flood Watch from 2pm EDT this afternoon through late tonight for VAZ025>027-029-036>040-507-508. WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ050-055-501>506. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Monday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ535- 536. |
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