Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt...Becoming Ne 10 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft... Building To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Sun...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 216pm EDT Wednesday Oct 8 2025 Synopsis A strong cold front will sag south and east of the area through this evening leading to gradually clearing skies, falling temperatures, and breezy conditions. High pressure will build in from the north tonight into Thursday allowing for seasonably cool air to filter in. A widespread frost and freeze is possible for areas west of Interstate 95 Thursday night into Friday as high pressure remains north of the region. Coastal low pressure will develop along the southeast U.S. coast this weekend before lifting north toward the Delmarva early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 18Z/2PM EDT, a few spotty showers were exiting southern Maryland in association with a strong cold front. This front should be fully offshore within the next hour or two, with rapidly clearing skies and gusts of 20-30 mph in its wake. Strong cold/dry advection will continue behind the front this into tonight. The front is strong enough to cause a temperature drop during the afternoon. Clouds will quickly erode from northwest to southeast, with most locations experiencing at least some sunshine this afternoon prior to sunset. Strong cold advection will continue overnight tonight, with most locations dropping back into the 40s and winds holding at around 5-10 mph out of the north. The pressure gradient should weaken just enough across western portions of the forecast area for sheltered mountain valleys to decouple and go calm. That should allow for frost to form in those locations late tonight. Frost Advisories remain in effect tonight for portions of the Alleghenies and Potomac Highlands where temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid 30s. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night High pressure will build to our north Thursday into Friday. This will result in sunny skies during the day and clear skies at night. Temperatures will be the coolest of the season thus far, with daytime highs only reaching into the 60s (50s mountains). A surface ridge will strengthen over our area to the southwest of the high pressure center Thursday night. This should enable most locations to decouple. With clear skies and calm winds, this will set the stage for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures will drop into the 30s to the west of I-95, with most of those locations likely having frost. Freeze Watches remain in effect for the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, and much of the Shenandoah Valley where confidence is highest for sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night. An expansion of the Freeze Watch (or Frost Advisories) may be needed further east. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday A coastal low pressure system continues to bring plenty of uncertainty to the forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Synoptically, we will remain in a split flow pattern caught between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Surface high pressure will gradually push east from southern New England into the western Atlantic through the weekend while an area of low pressure pushes north along a stalled boundary at the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, closed low pressure looks to dig south from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the weekend timeframe. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to exhibit large spread when it comes to how these features interact, although some consistency has been noted in the latest 12z solutions. The biggest question overall is to how far south the closed low feature digs into the region and its overall placement to interact with the incoming coastal low. The 12z EPS continues to favor a solution where the cutoff low pressure system has some interaction with the incumbent shortwave/cutoff low over the Northeast. The 12z GEFS also favors some interaction between the cutoff low and coastal low, especially toward the back half of the weekend into early next week. Both solutions suggest increasing rain chances late Saturday into Sunday, especially in locations east of the Blue Ridge and toward the I-95 corridor. Some shower activity may push toward the mountains, but is highly dependent on the timing/placement of the coastal feature and interaction with the closed low/shortwave feature which looks to pass just over/north of the region. Either way, this is a highly volatile forecast with many moving parts that will have to be closely monitored. A blend of the solutions would suggest increased cloud cover, seasonable temperatures, and blustery conditions (especially by the waters) for the upcoming weekend ahead. Precipitation chances look to increase from the southeast Saturday afternoon and evening as the influence of high pressure kicks further into the western Atlantic, and coastal low pressure moves toward the Carolinas. Rain chances will continue to increase for all locations with an emphasis for those east of US-15 Sunday into Monday as low pressure lifts up toward the Delmarva, and the shortwave trough/cutoff low nears. Rain chances will decrease Tuesday as the cutoff low/shortwave trough pushes east, and the coastal low retrogrades back south toward the Carolinas. High pressure returns thereafter for the middle part of next week. Persistent east to northeasterly flow will lead to below normal temperatures through early next week. Highs should remain in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall chances are generally confined to areas along and east of I-95, and generally capped at 30 to 50 percent. There is certainly room for this to change based on the track of the coastal feature. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph over land Sunday with gale gusts possible over the waters. Stay tuned and check back at weather.gov/lweather for the latest. Marine Following the passage of a strong cold front, gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected at times into tonight within north to northwesterly flow. Winds will decrease to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels around mid-morning Thursday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level conditions are expected within northeasterly flow Thursday afternoon, and then within easterly flow on Friday. Low pressure will approach from the southeast U.S. coast bringing another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions this weekend. Depending on the strength and position of coastal low pressure, gales would be possible, especially over the southern-most waters. The current forecast package calls for 30 to 40 knot northeasterly gusts by Sunday afternoon/evening. Similar gusts are expected Monday, especially over middle and lower portions of the Chesapeake Bay/tidal Potomac River. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions may linger for portions of the waters through Tuesday before high pressure returns midweek. Tides / Coastal Flooding Anomalies will be on the decrease through Thursday as offshore northwesterly winds increase behind a cold front. Anomalies will rapidly rebound later Thursday into Friday as northerly winds begin to decrease and turn easterly. Coastal flooding appears probable Friday within onshore flow. While most locations will likely only reach Action or Minor Flood Stage, Annapolis may potentially make a run at Moderate Flood Stage with the high tide Friday evening. Additional coastal flooding is possible this weekend as a coastal low develops to our south and moves up the Eastern Seaboard. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT Thursday for MDZ008. Frost Advisory from 2am to 9am EDT Thursday for MDZ501-509- 510. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for MDZ501-502-509-510. VA...Frost Advisory from 2am to 9am EDT Thursday for VAZ503-504. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for VAZ025>027-029-503-504. WV...Frost Advisory from 2am to 9am EDT Thursday for WVZ501>503- 505-506. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for WVZ050-055-501>506. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534- 537>543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536. |
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