Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft... Subsiding To Flat Late.|
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 Kt...Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Night.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
858pm EST Thu Dec 1 2022
High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving east Friday into Friday night. A cold front will pass through the area Saturday, bringing widespread rain during the afternoon. High pressure returns late in the weekend into early next week. Low pressure and its associated cold front may impact the area during the middle portion of next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Current (as of 845 PM) satellite imagery shows high cloud cover across much of the forecast area. These high clouds may linger over the next few hours, but are expected to break up during the second half of the overnight, giving way to clear skies. At the surface, high pressure currently centered over WV will progress eastward and become centered directly overhead. This will allow most locations to decouple and go calm. As a result, we'll have an ideal setup for radiational cooling once the high clouds dissipate. The previous low temperature forecast (which was at or below the coolest guidance) has been maintained. Temperatures are forecast to drop back into the upper teens and low 20s across the majority of the forecast area, with upper 20s and lower 30s in downtown DC and Baltimore.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
The lingering high will begin to move offshore early Friday. Temperatures will likely move to more seasonable conditions with 40s and 50s across the area by Friday afternoon. The area will continue to remain dry ahead of an approaching front from the west that will close in on the Mid-Atlantic by late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
The cold front will move into the area from the west, bringing increased precipitation chances for the Allegheny Front late Friday night and move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. As the front approaches, rain will likely be widespread through the late morning/early afternoon. Winds will also be elevated along and just behind the cold front passage. Medium to short-range guidance is suggesting that gusts up to 50 mph are possible Saturday afternoon and early evening across the Allegheny Front, where the gradient will be tightest. There may be a downsloping component to the wind that may enable Wind Advisory gusts just east of the Allegheny Front, but confidence is higher further west.
After the front moves through, high pressure will return and build overnight Saturday. Dry and colder conditions are expected for the second half of the weekend with northwesterly winds in place.
Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
Strong upper level troughing centered over Canada will be competing with strong upper level ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in unsettled weather throughout the long term period. High pressure will build overhead on Sunday and dry conditions will persist until Monday night. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s to 50s with overnight low temperatures in the 30s for most. Heading into the workweek, a warm front will lift north up through our area increasing precipitation chances. Showers are possible starting Monday night with overnight low temperatures in the 30s to 40s. Most of the area should see rain, but those west of the Blue Ridge Mountains and near Northern Maryland may see a wintry mix.
As an area of low pressure tracks over the Great Lakes, an associated cold front will pass over the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing showers. The cold front will bring much colder air with overnight low temperatures in the 20s to 30s for most both Tuesday and Wednesday night.
High pressure will settle over the waters tonight before moving offshore Friday. Southerly winds will develop Friday and increase late Friday through Friday night, before turning to the southwest Saturday and remaining gusty. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed as early as late Friday afternoon, but more likely Friday night through Saturday.
A cold front will pass through the waters late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, and a wind shift to the northwest is expected. Gusty winds will likely persist, and an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will likely be needed for the waters Saturday night.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria winds are likely both Sunday and Monday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A southerly flow will strengthen late Friday through Saturday ahead of a cold front. Anomalies will increase during this time, and minor flooding is possible, especially across the northern portion of the Chesapeake Bay from Annapolis northward. However, confidence is still low because the flow will likely turn west of south Saturday around times of high tide. Offshore winds will cause anomalies to fall later Saturday night.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.