Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
|Rest Of This Afternoon...N Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt...Becoming Ne After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms Through The Night. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
A cold front will stall to our south tonight before dissipating Monday as high pressure settles overhead. Another boundary will stall out nearby for the middle and latter portion of the week, while several upper-level disturbances pass through in northwest flow aloft, bringing unsettled conditions for much of the week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
The cold front has pushed well south of the region into southern VA and the Carolinas. Our region lies in the base of a broad upper trough over southeastern Canada. Meanwhile a large upper ridge is anchored over the central CONUS. As expected, much of the region has cleared out, with the only clouds lingering over central VA into southern MD. A light northerly flow will usher in less humid conditions as well today. Additionally, max temps will be in the 80s for most locations. Can't rule out a Probability of Precipitation up shower this afternoon across our far southwest zones, but chances for that have decreased since the front is now so far south.
High pressure centered to the north will extend south into our area tonight, allowing for cooler and less humid conditions compared to recent nights. Min temps will be in the low 60s west of I-95 and more into the mid 60s for areas eat to the waters. The valleys out west may dip into the 50s.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
The high will move offshore later Monday and a return flow will develop while our area remains in a nearly zonal flow aloft. The return flow will allow for seasonable conditions with a little uptick in humidity. However, we should remain dry due to subsidence aloft in between upper-level disturbances.
High pressure remains offshore Tuesday and usher in much warmer and more humid conditions into much of the region in the form of a warm front. Meanwhile, a potent shortwave will be over the Ohio Valley early in the day with most guidance depicting an MCS developing and drifting towards the region.
As this MCS develops and tracks towards the region, there is some uncertainty that remains in regards to the environment over our area and just how favorable it will be in terms of severe weather. The primary issue seen amongst most of the guidance is W to WNW flow in the mid-levels. This is always a signal that brings the chances for severe weather into question as it ushers in dry air aloft, which many times is too much to overcome. That being said, the MCS is expected to move into our western areas during the early part of the afternoon and track east across the area. Just how strong it is once it gets east of the I-81 corridor is very much in question. Temperatures Tuesday will be well into the 80s with dew points into the 70s, so the environment in the low-levels is certainly conducive for severe weather. This event certainly needs to be watched closely, as the worst case scenario in this type environment could be a strong MCS bringing damaging winds and some large hail.
The threat could continue into Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as yet another upper-level disturbance approaches for the west, with this one bringing some impressive mid-level lapse rates with it. More on that in the long term discussion below.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
An upper level ridge is forecast to remain in place over the central US on Wednesday as an upper level trough drops down into the NE US. A cold front is forecast to drop down into the region sometime on Wednesday along with an upper level shortwave. There remains a lot of uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage along with a shortwave passing through the upper level flow. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage on Wednesday, the region could see a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms and continued heavy rain. Ahead of the frontal passage, a west to southwesterly flow will continue to advect in warm and moist air into the region. It seems the threat for severe weather will be highly dependent on the timing of the frontal passage and the main flood threat main be focused along the Allegheny front where a potentially westerly 850 flow could enhance precipitation along the western sides of the Mtns.
The upper level trough over the northeast US starts to break down on Thursday as a front remains nearby through the end of the week. Continued shortwave energy passing through the upper level flow coupled with a front remaining nearby will lead to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. A stronger upper level trough and an accompanying front is forecast to drop down into the region sometime late Friday into this weekend bringing additional chances for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain.
High pressure will build overhead today before pushing offshore on Monday. Winds pick up out of the south Monday night and could come close to Small Craft Advisory criteria with southerly channeling, but too uncertain at this point and in period 4, so will pass along to potentially consider in the next couple forecast cycles.
Some uncertainty lies in the forecast on Tuesday as a potential MCS tracks through the region. Some question remains as to how far east this will make it (see the above short term for more details). Regardless, there will be the chance for some strong to severe storms over the waters which may necessitate SMWs.
Widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels are expected in the long term period at this time but thunderstorms will be possible over the marines areas, Wednesday through Thursday.
NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None.