Chesapeake Bay From Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of This Afternoon...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248pm EDT Thu April 25 2024 Synopsis A weak area of low pressure will continue to push further offshore today while high pressure wedges it's way south along the eastern Appalachians Friday into Saturday. Cooler temperatures will prevail as a result along with increased cloud cover. A warm front lifts through the area this weekend bringing a significant warm up Sunday and Monday. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday next week. Near Term - Through Tonight A weak piece of shortwave energy aloft will continue to push further off the lower Delmarva coast this afternoon. With shortwave energy aloft and a lee standing wave in place increased cloudiness (i.e low and mid level stratus) persists across a large portion of the forecast region. Excess cloud cover will remain prevalent through this evening as onshore east to northeast flow increases with high pressure wedging south from the eastern Great Lakes region. This will hold temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and low 60s throughout the day with upper 40s and low 50s over the mountains. Cloud cover will linger tonight although some clearing is likely especially along the PA/MD border and back across central/northeast MD. These areas do have the potential to see a little frost with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. Confidence is moderate given the extent of the cloud cover and clearing along the periphery of the wedge. For that reason, have went ahead with a Frost Advisory for Cecil, Harford, Carroll, and northern Baltimore counties in Maryland where better clearing looks to take place. Temperatures in these locations will run 34 to 37 degrees. Elsewhere lows are expected to remain in the upper 30s and low 40s especially where low and mid level (stratus) clouds look to hang on. Some patchy drizzle is even possible by daybreak Friday morning along the crest of the Blue Ridge and eastern slopes of the Alleghenies as moisture increases on southeast flow. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night High pressure over the New England states will remain wedged along the eastern slopes of Alleghenies and Blue Ridge heading into the start of the weekend. This will result in continued cloudiness at times along with near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. Highs Friday will push back into the low to mid 60s with 50s over the mountains. Overnight lows Friday will fall back into the low to mid 40s. By Saturday, surface high pressure will continue to nudge south and east off the southern New England coast into the western Atlantic for the start of the weekend. Meanwhile, at the surface a warm front will lift north along the western periphery of the surface high and push toward the eastern Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. This front may lend to a few showers mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge although moisture should remain limited with upper level ridging quickly building in from the southeastern U.S. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 50s and low 60s north of I-66/US- 50 with mid to upper 60s further south. This spread is due largely in part to the placement of the warm front, widespread cloud cover, and rain chances across portions of the region. The wedge finally breaks Saturday night and into the day Sunday as strong upper level ridging builds in from south and surface high pressure sits off the NC coast. This will send an ample supply of warm air advection over the region yielding a Summertime feel for the last weekend of April 2024. Lows Saturday night will fall in the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Conditions will remain dry with skies gradually clearing daybreak Sunday morning. Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday A strong upper-level ridge will build over the region Sunday before reaching its peak intensity on Monday. This will lead to well above average temperatures, with some areas potentially pushing 90 on Monday along the I-95 corridor. A weakening upper trough will lift to our northwest on Tuesday as it ejects out of the central CONUS into the Great Lakes region. A weak piece of shortwave energy breaks off as this happens and slides across our region. An accompanying "cold front" will push through and perhaps Probability of Precipitation off some thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours. There should be enough instability and some decent wind shear aloft to produce some strong to severe thunderstorms as well. The amount of instability is still a bit in question however, as this system doesn't have a strong link to the Gulf of Mexico moisture source, thus keeping dew points down into the upper 50s to low 60s. Given that this is day 6 at this point, lots of time for things to change, so stay tuned to the latest forecast each day. Showers and a few storms possible again on Wednesday with an even weaker shortwave traversing the region. Not much relief from the heat from the previous front, as highs remain in the mid 80s. Marine Northeast to easterly winds continue to sit below sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this afternoon although some channeling has been noted across the central Chesapeake Bay. Remaining Small Craft Advisories will expire around 4pm. Will continue to monitor for any channeling over the open waters of the bay/tidal Potomac late tonight into Friday. Sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level southeasterly winds are expected Friday although channeling remains possible late in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds could flirt with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria for a few hours on both Saturday and Sunday. A warm front will lift across the waters Saturday changing the winds toward more of a southerly direction. With surface high pressure off the Carolina coast expected, southerly winds Saturday to change to more of a south/southwesterly direction Sunday. Gusts of 15-20kts are expected Saturday with 20-25 kts gusts possible Sunday due to southerly channeling. Surface high pressure offshore will bring a southerly flow to the region, which could channel up the Chesapeake Bay at times. This could necessitate SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) through Monday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Coastal Flood Watches are in effect for Annapolis and Straits Points as moderate coastal flooding is possible during the high tide cycle late tonight into early Friday morning. Other spots could reach minor flood stage, which would require additional Coastal Flood Advisories.This is due part to increased northeast to easterly flow eventually switching to the south/southeast this weekend. Additional periods of coastal flooding are likely over the weekend as southerly winds persist, and many locations approach or reach minor flood stage. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...None. MD...Frost Advisory from 2am to 8am EDT Friday for MDZ005-006-008- 507-508. Coastal Flood Watch from 2am EDT Friday through Friday morning for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ531>534. |
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