Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
| Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. Areas Of Fog This Morning, Then Patchy Fog This Afternoon. Areas Of Drizzle With A Slight Chance Of Light Rain Early This Morning, Then Areas Of Drizzle Late This Morning. Patchy Drizzle This Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less Early This Morning. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Areas Of Drizzle. Areas Of Fog. |
| Sun...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Sprinkles With Patchy Drizzle In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. |
| Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 651am EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Synopsis A warm front lifts through our region later today into Sunday, with a strong cold front moves through our area Sunday night. High pressure builds in later Monday and Tuesday before shifting offshore by Wednesday. A potentially strong cold front then moves through later Thursday into Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight High pressure just off the coast presently will continue sliding slowly eastward out to sea today and tonight as potent system to the west approaches. This will lead to increasing southeasterly to southerly flow, bringing plenty of low-level moisture back into the region. The net result will be a lot of clouds and possibly some fog and drizzle, but little else. Fog and low clouds likely reach greatest extent toward or just after dawn this morning before gradually being eroded by the increasingly strong March sun angle, with some breaks likely inland later in the day, though significant clearing is unlikely. Clouds and some fog/drizzle may redevelop this evening but then may break a bit overnight as a strong warm front slowly but surely lifts northward. With the front likely delayed until tonight, nudged highs for today down a few degrees, confining 60s to the Delmarva, but temperatures tonight likely hold in the 50s for much of the region, even rising late at night as the front lifts north. Winds will be increasing out of the south to southeast through today and tonight, but should mostly stay 15 mph or less through tonight with gusts generally no higher than 25 mph thru tonight. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Changing conditions as a strong cold front moves through later Sunday. Strong gradient winds, a low severe thunderstorm risk (damaging winds) and locally heavy rain Sunday and Sunday night. As a strong upper-level trough across the Midwest and Plains gradually shifts eastward, deep surface low pressure tracks across the upper Great Lakes region on Saturday night. This will result in a warm front lifting northward through Sunday ahead of the cold front, and warm air advection strengthening. As we go through Sunday, the aforementioned upper-level trough continues eastward and the main part of the energy looks to lift up into Canada, however there is trailing strong energy that maintains the trough all the way to the Gulf Coast area. As this shifts into the East by Sunday night, the wind field is forecast to increase substantially. This along with the tightening of a pressure gradient within the warm sector will result in an increasing surface wind. This is expected to peak Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front as the boundary layer becomes warmer and deeper mixing occurs. The peak wind gusts Sunday still look to be in the 35-45 mph range although cannot rule out some local gusts to 50 mph given some of the vertical mixing profiles inland from the coast. Therefore, we may need a Wind Advisory for at least portions of the area and one was considered with this update, but in collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to hold off for now as it remains uncertain how efficiently we'll be able to mix. The winds along the coast could be tempered some given the much warmer air advecting over the chilly ocean water. It will then be warm on Sunday despite lots of clouds with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, but again cooler along the coasts. The surface dew points are forecast to surge to near 60 degrees across much of the area through Sunday evening ahead of the strong cold front. As the cold front starts to arrive later Sunday afternoon, the forcing for ascent looks to be tied close to or with the front itself or a pre-frontal band. The main widespread shower activity, from west to east, looks to be late Sunday afternoon through about the first half of Sunday night. Given the robust wind field in place and strong forcing arriving, cannot rule out a strengthening convective line with or just ahead of the cold front. The deep-layer shear profiles will be very strong however the overall instability looks to be rather weak (low CAPE/high shear setup). Despite the rather weak instability, especially given the timing at night, strong forcing tends to drive a low- topped convective line that produces little or no lightning. It is within these environments that some of the very strong winds from aloft get transferred down to the surface resulting in some damaging wind gusts. As a result, there remains some risk of severe thunderstorms although again the damaging wind threat from convection could occur with little or no lightning. A plume of precipitable water is forecast to reach or exceed 1.5 inches and therefore areas of heavier hourly rainfall rates look probable. Given how dry it has been, not expecting much in the way of flooding, however when hourly rainfall rates peak and especially when over the urban areas then some roadway flooding is quite possible late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The total rainfall amounts across the region currently are between 0.75-1.25 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Storm Prediction Center withdrew the SLGT risk with the update yesterday afternoon, putting most of the region in a MRGL risk (1/5). This remains the case, which matches the setup of high shear and little to no CAPE. Overall, while it can't be ruled out, the threat for damaging winds from convection remains low. The cold front then swings through Sunday night and this will start to bring an end to the showers from west to east. For Monday, as the axis of an upper-level trough slides across our area this will continue to push a cold front more offshore. Some guidance is a little slower with this with even a weak surface low developing along front and therefore keeps showers through early Monday afternoon. It does look however that the front is progressive enough and therefore showers end Monday morning especially closer to the coast and the clouds then start to decrease. High temperatures will be cooler however still above average, then colder at night with widespread 30s. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Summary...Above normal temperatures through the middle of next week, with another frontal system moving in later in the week. Synoptic Overview...The axis of an upper-level trough is forecast to be offshore to start Tuesday, then the flow aloft turns zonal through Tuesday night before backing more from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. An upper-level trough, which may take on a negative-tilt, is forecast to pivot across the East Thursday into Friday. At the surface, high pressure arrives through Tuesday before it shifts offshore by Wednesday. A potentially strong upper-level trough then arrives Thursday into Friday with an associated cold front. For Tuesday and Wednesday...The flow is more zonal as a ridge aloft centered across the northern Gulf extends into the Mid- Atlantic Tuesday before shifting east and south into Wednesday. Surface high pressure extends across our area Tuesday before it shifts offshore into Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected as a result, and with building heigheights and some warm air advection as the low-level flow backs to more southerly, will result in daytime temperatures climbing into the 60s for many locales Tuesday then some low 70s Wednesday afternoon. Given a light enough flow a more southerly component develops closer to the coast Tuesday and then everywhere Wednesday, resulting in it being several degrees cooler closer to the coasts each day. For Thursday And Friday A potentially strong upper-level trough is forecast pivot across the East during this time frame. This trough may take on a negative-tilt as strong energy rotates through the base of the trough and then its east side. As deep low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, its strong cold front should arrive in our area later Thursday then be offshore by Friday morning. This timing of course could change, however as of now a plume of deeper moisture should extend into our area and given the strengthening wind field and strong trough and cold front arriving, some heavier rain is quite possible. If the mesoscale parameters become better defined then some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will still be quite mild ahead of the cold front, then it turns much cooler for Friday along with notable west to northwest breeze. Marine Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions through today. SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas will average 2 to 4 feet. Tonight...Small Craft Advisory in effect as seas build and winds increase from south to north. Visibility restrictions possible due to areas of fog. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...Gale Watch remains in place for all coastal waters as wind gusts will near 34 kt out of the south, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Seas 7-10 feet expected. Monday through Monday night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be needed for the ocean zones as seas of 6-9 feet expected. No marine headlines on Delaware Bay expected as winds will be below 25 kt. Tuesday through Wednesday...Periods of 5 foot seas possible (30-40%) which may result in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Winds are expected to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ430-431-450>455. |
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