Marine Weather Net

Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

MON

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ430 Forecast Issued: 1002 AM EST Sun Mar 03 2024

Rest Of Today...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw Late. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Tonight...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain After Midnight.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain, Mainly In The Morning.
Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming N After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
954am EST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Synopsis
Weak high pressure returns for Sunday and most of Monday. The next low pressure system is expected Monday night into Tuesday night. This will be followed closely behind by a system on Thursday, and another one next weekend.

Near Term - Through Monday
High pressure continues to build into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic Latest satellite images showing clouds continuing to break up and skies are clearing out. Only area where clouds are hanging tough are in the southern Poconos and into the Lehigh Valley, but those clouds should break up and lift by noon.

Highs today will warm well into the low 60s, possibly even into the mid 60s in some spots.

Surface high moves offshore as mid-level bridging builds over the Northeast. Onshore flow develops, and with increasing low level moisture, patchy fog will develop with best chances in southeast New Jersey and along the coasts. Lows tonight in the low 40s, though radiational cooling conditions could result in some spots, especially in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey, where lows drop into the upper 30s.

By Monday, the flow will reverse with onshore flow expected and increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system. Temperatures during the day will be overall pretty similar to those on Sunday, except for coastal areas where temps will be noticeably cooler due to marine air.

All in all, both Sunday and the beginning of Monday will be largely quiet and with no precipitation anticipated.

Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
A wet but not especially impactful period is expected Monday night into Tuesday night. A coastal trough will form just off the coast of the Southeast US late Sunday night into Monday, and is expected to become a closed low by late Monday. In response, a weak closed surface low is expected to develop late Monday before lifting northward through the day on Tuesday.

It does appear that the precipitation will be all rain with this system. There is a weak backdoor cold front expected to nudge into the area prior to the low, but temps should still stay well above freezing. The low itself will be taking a slightly inland track through our region, keeping us primarily in the warm sector.

Rain amounts a this point look to be 0.5 to 1 inches. In general, this should not be enough to cause any flooding issues with this system alone. However, the combination of the rain we received on Saturday and this system, will prime the soils such that we could see more significant responses with the later week rains (more on that below).

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Two more systems will have the potential to bring widespread precipitation. The main concern at this point is an increasing risk of flooding with so many widespread rain events in quick succession.

The first of these systems is expected Wednesday night into Thursday night. It will be the result of a combination of a southern stream low lifting from the SE U.S. interacting with a weakening cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region. There isn't any especially strong cold air advection either ahead of or during the passage of the low, so once again it looks like the precipitation will be all rain. While there is still a lot of uncertainty in how much rain we will receive with this system, the ground should be saturated due to the rain on Saturday, and the rain we will get with the Monday night/Tuesday period. As a result, expect to see more significant rises on area waterways than we would normally see with a similar rain amount after a dry period. There is currently a marginal risk (1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flooding with this system for much of the region.

A brief period of dry conditions is possible Thursday night or Friday as shortwave ridging slides over the area, before attention turns to the next system.

For the weekend time period, a surface low is expected to develop in response to a deep mid an upper level trough sliding over the central U.S.. There is considerable differences between models on the track and evolution of this low. At least one deterministic model is depicting the center of the surface low to mostly stay south of our region, which could set the stage for cold air damming and possibly some wintery mix of precipitation at the start of the event. However, the majority of guidance appears to be depicting another warm system, with primarily rain for our region. As with the Thursday system, the ground should already be saturated, so we will be watching the trends in forecast rain amounts as we get closer to determine flooding risk with this system.

Marine
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect due to high seas. Winds will be offshore today becoming onshore Monday.

Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday night: SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions primarily due to elevated seas are possible on the Atlantic coastal waters throughout this time period. For the Delaware Bay, it appears likely that conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through this period.

Wednesday And Thursday
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for both seas and winds are expected for much, if not all of this period on the Atlantic Coastal waters. On the Delaware Bay, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible with 25 kt winds primarily Wednesday night into Thursday.

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Monday for ANZ450>455.