Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
| Overnight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Tue...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Wed...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 921pm EDT Sunday September 15 2024 Synopsis High pressure will be in control through Monday night. An area of low pressure tracks northwestward into and across the Carolinas through the middle of this week, bringing increasing chances for showers across our area. Unsettled conditions persist through the end of the week, though high pressure tries to build in for next weekend. Near Term - Through Monday As of 920 PM, mainly just some high clouds are streaming northward across the southern half of our area this evening. Satellite data however does show some low cloud streamers sliding west- southwest off the New Jersey coast with some of this near Atlantic City down to Wildwood already. The extent of this is less certain due to drier air just inland from the coast. Did increase the cloud cover some across southeastern New Jersey especially. The wind has dropped off in many places and with a mainly clear sky and dry air, temperatures have dropped quite a bit so far this evening especially across interior southern New Jersey. As a result, adjusted the hourly temperatures to get these better in line with the latest observations and trends. Otherwise, high pressure remains centered to the northeast across New England. It will remain in place tonight and much of Monday before weakening. Low pressure is located offshore of the Carolinas (now designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight). Our region is in modest onshore flow between the two systems, so the weather is basically fair with mild temperatures. The pattern looks to continue into Monday, so while a mainly clear sky is expected to hold the longest tonight across the northern areas, there should be some low clouds arriving overnight closer to the coast (some high clouds above as well). Any stratus early Monday morning mostly across the coastal plain should lift into a cumulus deck and then advect inland. In addition, some high level clouds are expected to stream in from the south through Monday. There could be some fog overnight although just enough drying may have occurred to limit this to some open fields and/or valleys. Lows tonight will range in the low/mid 50s for most areas, but upper 50s/low 60s near the metro Philadelphia region and for Delmarva. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to be cooler than Sunday with mostly mid/upper 70s for highs. Winds east-northeast 10 to 15 mph with some gusts 20 to 25 mph especially closer to the coast. Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Monday Night onward looks to bring our first rain in over week. An area of non-tropical low pressure is developing along a stalled boundary off the southeastern US. It could take on tropical or sub- tropical characteristics being over the Gulf Stream, with the National Hurricane Center giving it a 50% chance of developing into a tropical/subtropical system as of 2 PM EDT. This system looks to move into the Carolinas on Monday/Monday Night, gradually moving north/northwestward and then eventually slowly off to the north/northeast. Latest guidance has the center of the low tracking further northwest into the Carolinas/western Virginia before turning north. This would keep a slightly slower progression with the bulk of the incoming moisture holding off until daytime Tuesday. Still thinking the Tuesday afternoon and evening will be the wettest overall, with the heaviest rain concentrated south of Philadelphia. There perhaps could be some embedded thunderstorms but the main concern will be the tropical-esque downpours as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) surge toward 2 inches. Rainfall amounts currently are around 1-2 inches basically from Wilmington and Atlantic City on south through Wednesday. Amounts of half inch to an inch through Wednesday are expected around Philly with gradually diminishing amounts further north. WPC has the entire region in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall currently on Tuesday and/or Wednesday, which is about right as guidance has been very inconsistent with the evolution of this system as it pushes north, and the axis of heaviest rainfall could certainly shift. We also have been very dry as of late, and thinking if the heaviest rain stays out of the urban areas, flooding issues will be minimal overall. With the tropical airmass overspreading the area, it will feel quite muggy both Monday and Tuesday nights. Overnight lows will only drop into the 60s. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday A relatively stagnant pattern will likely exist for the back half of the week, with a closed upper low level low somewhere in the vicinity. This will result in unsettled conditions through Friday, with rain chances around 25-45% through that period. Stuck close to the NBM overall for this period as the late week forecast is highly dependent on what happens with this area of low pressure approaching for the early/middle portion of this week. Most of the deterministic and some of the ensembles want to try to have a ridge build in for the weekend, but again, a highly uncertain forecast overall. Given the abundance of moisture and onshore flow setting up for most of the long-term period, expect muggy days and lots of cloud cover. This will suppress daytime highs to be near/just below normal with mild overnight lows and less of a diurnal range of temperatures. Marine High pressure well to the northeast and low pressure to the south will keep the onshore flow continuing into Monday. Winds and seas at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria for the southern areas where a Small Craft Advisory remains in place. We'll start the next zones northward (all except ANZ450) with the next issuance since the higher seas are making good progress that way. Outlook... Monday night...Small Craft Advisory in effect for coastal waters south of Manasquan Inlet as gusts over 25 kt and 5-6 foot seas are expected. The lower Delaware Bay may need to be added as gusts look to approach 25 kt. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected along the upper Delaware Bay and coastal waters north of Manasquan Inlet. Tuesday through Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible as seas hover near 5 feet and gusts get near 25 kt at times. Rip currents... For Monday and Tuesday, east winds will average 15 to 20 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 4 feet with an 8 to 9 second period. This results in a HIGH risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Delaware Beaches and Jersey Shore. A Rip Current Statement is now in effect for both Monday and Tuesday. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi Tides / Coastal Flooding Continued onshore flow will result in some minor tidal flooding, mainly along the Atlantic coast and within the Delaware Bay. Spotty minor flooding could begin as early as tonight's high tide. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed starting with the Monday night high tide, and then Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday morning. Biggest impacts look to be along the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts, and along Delaware Bay. Will continue to monitor trends and issue any advisories as needed but coastal communities mentioned above should prepare for some minor tidal flooding. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NJZ024. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6am EDT Monday through Tuesday evening for NJZ014-025-026. DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for DEZ004. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ451>455. |
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