Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Mon...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tue Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 656am EDT Sunday April 28 2024 Synopsis Warm front moves through today into tonight. Unseasonable warm temperatures expected Monday. Backdoor frontal boundary stalls over the region Monday night and Tuesday. Weak cold front crosses through Tuesday night. Unsettled conditions could remain for Wednesday before weak high pressure builds in for Thursday. Cold front could approach from the west Friday and pass through during the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight No changes with the morning update. Previous discussion follows: Broad high pressure continues to sit to the south over the Atlantic waters east of the Outer Banks. With low pressure sitting off the Gaspe Peninsula, flow over the Mid Atlantic will generally be light with a west to southwest component due to a weak pressure gradient. This will in turn continue to lift a warm front through the region today with much of PA/NJ/DelMarVA sitting in the warm sector. With the region in the warm sector, temperatures this afternoon will push into the low to mid 80s. With drier air moving in aloft, expect clouds to eventually scatter out enabling strong PBL mixing briefly this afternoon. With a well mixed BL we could see some briefly breezy continues for an hour or two just before sunset this evening. The contrast in surface temps between the land and marine zones should fire up a sea breeze circulation, however as the previous shift mentioned, the sea breeze boundary will struggle to push inland owing to the westerly winds. Offshore it should push slightly further so there will likely be a brief chop on the ocean waters just offshore. While humidity wont be high, dewpoints creeping into the upper 50s will be ample enough to develop around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Late in the afternoon, a shortwave will rotate over the upper level ridge and should spark some shower activity. EL's should be sufficiently high enough for charge separation so a few of those storms could produce lightning. While I don't currently anticipate severe weather, I can't rule out the potential for a storm to produce wind gusts in excess of 50kts. With MUCAPE of 500 J/kg, effective shear 35-40kts, and curved hodographs in BUFKit soundings, this points to the small potential for some isolated wind damage. Both the Storm Prediction Center calibrated SVR progs, and the NCAR NN Convective Hazard forecast show low changes (<10 percent) but certainly none zero. Heading into the overnight hours, the loss of diurnal heating will quickly lead to any storms weakening however temps will still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal overnight. Even strong radiational cooling shouldn't be enough to see temps drop much colder than the upper 50s to low 60s. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night The main story of the short term will be the strengthening ridge across the East Coast and the warm temperatures that come with it. 500 hPa heigheights look to increase to near 580 dam by Monday, values more typical of summertime. At the surface, high pressure will be centered offshore of the Carolinas, helping to advect warmer and more moist air into the region. The result will be much above normal temperatures. A backdoor frontal boundary will sink southwestward into the area from New England Monday night, stalling out across the central part of the forecast area by Tuesday. Monday will be the warmest day of the stretch with high temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 80s in most interior locations under partly cloudy skies. Highs in the more urbanized areas could top out closer to 90 degrees, though readings of 90 degrees or higher appear unlikely at this time. The northwest flow will add a downsloping component to the winds and thus also help to boost temperatures locally near the urban corridor. The offshore wind will also allow for a notable warmup even along the immediate coast, with highs getting to the low to mid 70s before the sea breeze kicks in. As the gradient flow weakens and shifts eventually to the southwest then south, the sea breeze will likely make significant inland progress into the I-95 corridor and perhaps even farther inland from there during the evening. This will cool temperatures off into the 70s and 60s by late evening. Dewpoints will be near 60 degrees, so the Heat Index won't be much different than the air temperature on Monday. No heat headlines are anticipated. Lows Monday night will also be quite mild once again in the mid 50s to low 60s. The backdoor frontal boundary will sink into northern and central New Jersey overnight with increasing cloud cover. For Tuesday, the frontal boundary will stall out along a line from near Ocean County northwest into the Lehigh Valley. Southwest of the boundary, temperatures should warm well into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Northeast of the boundary, temperatures will likely top out in the 70s away from the coast under mostly cloudy skies. The upper ridge will deamplify as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This wave will be weakening a good bit, so forcing won't be overly impressive. However, we should have a fair amount of diurnally driven instability though, generally in the 500-1000 J/kg neighborhood southwest of the boundary. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop into the afternoon and evening. Shear isn't bad, around 30-35 kts...will keep an eye on the forecast as it develops. Have kept Probability of Precipitation near 30-50%, greatest toward the northwest where forcing will be a bit stronger. A weak cold front associated with the trough will pass through the area Tuesday night, bringing an end to the convective activity. This will also signal a return to more temperate conditions for the remainder of the week, although temperatures likely remain several degrees above normal. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday Generally unsettled and uncertain, but not overly impactful long term looks to be on the horizon. The ensembles suggest another upper- level ridge axis will build over the eastern CONUS while moving eastwards with time Wednesday through Saturday. The overall upper- level pattern looks to become more slow moving Wednesday onwards. Shortwave energy hanging around or moving through could be in the cards, potentially supporting some weak convective activity and varying cloud cover during the term. At least for this forecast cycle, weak surface frontal boundaries look to hang around Wednesday with surface high pressure building in Wednesday night into Friday. Forecast confidence in surface high pressure muting any shower development from shortwave energy is very low this far out though. End of the week cold front looks to be slower than previous model runs had it. Cold front now looks to approach Friday/Saturday and move through later Saturday or Saturday night. Stuck with NBM PoPS for this forecast. Slight chance or chance of showers for Wednesday. No Probability of Precipitation included Wednesday night through Friday morning. Greater chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday night time frame thanks to another set of fronts approaching then passing through. Cold front looks to cross through Saturday night. Above average temperatures likely Wednesday through the end of the term. Marine Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap for the rest of this evening and today. Another trough passing through the waters may keep wind gusts at least periodically around 20 kt into early this morning. Winds this afternoon will generally be southerly 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT at times generally picking up a westerly component. Seas 2-3 ft for most of the period. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...No wind or seas headlines anticipated. Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Given the setup of a warm airmass over cooler water temps a marine dense fog advisory may be needed Monday. Climate Near record breaking high temperatures are forecast on Monday. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Record High Temperatures Jan 25 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 86/1974 AC Airport (ACY) 92/1974 AC Marina (55N) 88/2017 Georgetown (GED) 91/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 82/1974 Philadelphia (PHL) 90/1974 Reading (RDG) 91/1888 Trenton (TTN) 88/1974 Wilmington (ILG) 91/1974 NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. Marine None. |
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