Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1045am EDT Sat August 8 2020
A stationary front lying east west across the region is expected to weaken and washout this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area tomorrow, before progressing offshore early next week. A cold front will approach New England around the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Stratus and any leftover fog will slowly burn off through early afternoon given very prevailing onshore flow.
During the afternoon, weak dynamic subsidence behind an eastward moving shortwave combined with drying aloft, and generally weaker lapse rates, should limit convective coverage and intensity. That being said enough low-level moisture remains pooled across our area to support the development of isolated or perhaps even scattered convection this afternoon. Guidance generally focuses convective initiation on two areas, the first being near the NJ/Delaware coasts near the sea breeze boundary, while the second area is associated with a weak trailing shortwave that crosses the Poconos late this afternoon. Focused the highest Probability of Precipitation in these locations, but did broadbrush at least Slight Chc everywhere. Given only modest shear/instability/lapse rates think the overall severe threat is low. The heavy rain threat doesn't appear to serious either given decreasing moisture, however can't completely rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moist low-lvls.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
In general a quiet night is expected tomorrow night, however some guidance is depicting some light precipitation in association with a weak shortwave later in the night. Not really buying anything notable at this point as the dynamics look weak, and (as is important in the warm season) the diurnal timing is not favorable. Fog/Stratus potential doesn't look particularly impressive with only the most pessimistic guidance (e.g. the NAM and its derivatives) showing it developing. Lows should generally range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
Overview: For a change, the long term should be starting rather tranquil as far as weather is concerned. A broad mid and upper level trough slowly drifting east may bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms as early as mid week.
Sunday and Monday...In the wake of the mid level trough finally exiting our region, high pressure is expected to build in. The GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continue to show a weak upper level trough traversing the Canadian Maritimes, but any impacts from this system should stay well to our north. Thanks to the low level southerly/southwesterly flow, expect a slight warming trend, with highs mostly in the upper 80s on Sunday and lower 90s on Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday...A broad upper level low is expected to continue to slowly drift east across central Canada. There continues to be some uncertainty in how soon, if at all, our region will see impacts (both in the form of rain and a cold front) associated with this system. Some of the more progressive solutions show rain in our region as early as Monday night, with the cold front getting into the southern Poconos by Wednesday before stalling. Other guidance shows rain chances in our region not increasing until Wednesday night and the front stalling well north of our region. For now, have stayed close to the previous forecast and a consensus blend of guidance until there is better agreement on the timing of this system.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected with light easterly winds (gusts <15kts) and around 2 foot seas prevailing through the day on Saturday
Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria.
Rip Currents... The Rip Current risk is expected to remain low through the weekend as wave heigheights in the surf zone remain in the 1-2 foot range and a 7-10 second southeasterly swell prevails.
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Hibernia Park Pennsylvania (Station WNG-704) remains off the air.
The NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards broadcast from Franklin Township New Jersey (Station KZZ-31) is off the air.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
Synopsis...Johnson Near Term
Carr/Franklin Short Term
Carr Long Term...Haines/Johnson Aviation...Carr/Johnson/Franklin Marine...Carr/Johnson Equipment...WFO PHI