Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S Late. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 414am EDT Monday August 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There is an increasing risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Added new key message regarding the potential for minor tidal flooding this week. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return today and into the middle of the week. There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms, as well as a marginal risk for localized heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. 2. Hot and humid conditions will persist into the middle of the week, but humidity will not be as oppressive as recent days. 3. There is potential for minor tidal flooding during the evening high tides this week along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return today and into the middle of the week. There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms, as well as a marginal risk for localized heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the area this afternoon into the evening as mean flow shifts more westerly and mid- level flow increases amid falling heights. Model consensus suggest this will arrive right around peak diurnal instability in the mid to late afternoon hours. Convection is already ongoing with this feature across the Midwest, which could either maintain itself into our region by afternoon, or weaken and restrengthen. As it typically the case with these setups, the CAMs are varying significantly in their solutions, but the synoptic evolution supports an outcome as previously described. The storms across central PA early this morning should dissipate early enough to not play a significant role in convection later today, aside from perhaps a lingering differential heating boundary. That could act as a focus for additional develop later today. Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms farther east to right near the Delaware River, and if current trends hold, would anticipate this being extended even further southeast to fully encompass the I-95 corridor. There remains some uncertainty in exactly how convection will evolve today, and thus which areas will be at greater risk for severe storms, so we'll have to monitor trends upstream closely as the day progresses. The primary risk with any thunderstorms today will be damaging wind gusts, as there looks to be more of an upscale growth potential into a line segment(s) as the activity approaches our area. Instability of 2000-3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates upward of 8C/km are supportive of damaging wind gusts, and deep layer shear in the 25-35 kt range will support organized convection. The line of storms will likely be fairly fast moving, say 40-50 mph, so this should be a quick hitting event. The tornado threat, while still non-zero, will be very limited as LCLs will be fairly high and low level shear is meager at best. As for flash flooding, there is a Marginal (level 1 out 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for our entire area. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) do look to increase again to upwards of 2 inches, so there is heavy rain potential. However, with a quick moving linear storm mode anticipated, this will limit the potential for flash flooding. There remains some uncertainty around the exact timing of the convection today, as this will depend on how things evolve upstream this morning and early afternoon. With that said, the most favorable timing will be focused on the mid afternoon to early evening hours. The trend for lower instability has continued for Tuesday given the faster evolution of the synoptic features (cold front and shortwave trough). Tuesday's activity will be displaced to our southwest. With that said, we could still see some convection potential, or even get the remnants of whatever occurs upstream later in the evening. So while the threat of severe storms now appears to be lower for Tuesday, we could still get showers and storms in some form. Details for Tuesday are even more uncertain than Monday, and Monday's activity will probably play some role in what exactly happens Tuesday. Storm Prediction Center expanded the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) farther northeast into the Philly metro area, and the entire area remains in the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall. A cold front looks to stall to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Multiple waves look to ride along the stalled boundary which will support diurnally driven convection continuing at least through Wednesday, and possible Thursday. The front looks to push through by late Thursday, and a much drier and cooler airmass will arrive by Friday and Saturday as a result. This will bring us a more pronounced break in convective potential and more pleasant weather conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will persist into the middle of the week, but humidity will not be as oppressive as recent days. A relatively stagnant synoptic pattern will remain in place across our region. Quasi zonal mid and upper level flow will be in place through the middle of the week as Bermuda high pressure persists offshore. This will keep a very warm and moist airmass in place across the region through the period. Hot and humid conditions will continue into the middle of the week, although slightly lower temperatures and dewpoints will arrive for Wednesday. Dewpoints are anticipated to mix out into the mid to upper 60s again this afternoon. This will give some slight reprieve from the excessive humidity we've experienced in recent days, though highs will still be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The lower dewpoints will result in maximum heat indices mainly in the mid to upper 90s, though could get near 100 degrees in Delmarva and near the coast in New Jersey. Since the forecast is decidedly below criteria, we have opted to continue without a new Heat Advisory, though it will still be hot and humid. The faster synoptic pattern evolution described in the first section above will continue to support slightly lower temperatures and heat index values beginning Tuesday. High temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees for most Tuesday through Thursday, with heat indices mainly in the mid 80s to mid 90s. This is closer to average for early to mid August. By Friday and Saturday with the front finally having pushed through, a much drier and cooler airmass will arrive, which will bring much more pleasant weather conditions. Dewpoints may drop into the 50s again for many areas with highs forecast to be in the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints look to start rebounding into the 60s again by Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3...There is potential for minor tidal flooding during the evening high tides this week along the Atlantic coast, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. As we approach the New Moon on Wednesday, astronomical tides for the evening high tide cycles will increase to around a half foot below minor flood stage in many areas this week along the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delware, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River. With tide departures running around a half foot above average, this will raise a threat of minor flood stage being reached for these areas. We will continue to monitor the tide departures in the coming total water level forecasts. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed for a few zones if the departures become high enough, but at least spotty minor tidal flooding should be anticipated around the times of the evening high tides this week. The highest astronomical tides will occur on Wednesday, though Tuesday's tides are of similar height. The threat of minor tidal flooding may linger through Thursday or Friday as well. Tidal flooding is not currently forecast for the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay. Marine No prevailing marine hazards through tonight. Winds south to southwest around 5-15 kts, increasing to 10-20 kts during the afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet. Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. Outlook... Tuesday through Friday...No prevailing marine hazards expected. Thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening through Thursday. Rip Currents... For Today...Light winds in the morning will increase and settle out of the south-southwest around 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave heigheights of 1 to 2 feet are expected with multiple swell groups and periods, generally ranging around 5 to 7 seconds. Given these conditions, have opted to continue with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at all beaches. For Tuesday...Light winds in the morning will settle out of the west-southwest in the afternoon between 5 to 15 mph. Breaking wave heigheights will remain around 1 to 2 feet with a southerly 2 foot swell around 5 to 7 seconds. With little changes in overall conditions, will go with a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. Marine None. |
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