Delaware Bay north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog Early This Morning. A Chance Of Rain Early This Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early This Morning.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Early In The Evening. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 Ft Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
811am EST Sat Jan 16 2021
A cold front will move across the area this morning. Meanwhile, a low will form over Delmarva and lift along New Jersey and into New England through the morning. Another cold front moves across the region tonight. High pressure returns for the start of the new week, and then a series of weak low pressure systems will pass through the region for the middle and later parts of the week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Some light rain showers continue across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, down towards Philly, and over portions of northern and coastal New Jersey. These are slowly moving to the north and east, and will taper off as the morning progresses. Across portions of the Poconos, precipitation changes from rain to snow and back, but not expecting much in the way of snow accumulations.
As the upper low moves through the region through this evening, embedded perturbations within the large-scale trough will likely generate regions of lift and potentially some showers. The best chances of this for our area are in the Poconos, via favorable northwest flow and in central/southern Delmarva, downstream of a potent vort max moving through this afternoon. Impacts in each of these areas should be minimal, but would not be surprised to see some brief reductions in visibility in light snow in the Poconos. Temperatures will likely be warm enough for liquid in Delmarva, but cannot rule out a flurry or two. Chances of measurable precipitation seem quite low, so only slight-chance to chance Probability of Precipitation appear warranted. Any precipitation should taper off late this evening and tonight, with even some potential for some clearing.
There is little spread in guidance for highs today, so used a consensus blend. The result is highs in the 30s for the Poconos and the 40s to around 50 elsewhere. Lows tonight are a little less certain, as cloud cover and elevated winds may preclude substantial radiational cooling. For now, have temperatures mainly near to slightly below freezing, but would not be surprised if lows end up a little warmer.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
A dry period with weak ridging aloft Sunday and a short wave trough sweeping through Monday. Maybe a few flurries far N/W, but not in the grids attm. Seasonable temps with gusty daytime winds with gusts 15 to 25 mph both days.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
The last remnants of the large upper low will have past off to the east/northeast by Tuesday morning with a mostly zonal upper flow across the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Surface high pressure will be to the south but ridging up into our area. This means a dry forecast for Tuesday and into Wed. Clouds will be increasing Wednesday however with the next system pushing towards the area. Temperatures will be a little above normal Tuesday and close to normal Wed.
As the week wears on, the next disturbance moves SE out of the Canadian prairies and turns across the Great Lakes. The GFS has the clipper-like system pushing N of the area later Thu then into New England Thu night/Fri. The low pressure is rather strong, but with a north track, a mostly rain event is foreseen for our region with perhaps some snow at the onset, any maybe some accum snow for the N/W-most areas. The feature is rather disorganized, so just some chance probability of precipitation were kept in the forecast for Thu/Thu night attm. I'm sure we'll see various solutions as the weekend/early next week wear on. Temperatures look above normal Thu, close to normal Fri, then back to below normal for Sat.
Will start the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for DE ocean waters a bit earlier, as seas are up around 5 feet at 44009. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect for NJ ocean waters. As winds become more westerly this morning, speeds will increase to 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, with conditions spreading southward with time. Eventually, gusts should exceed criteria on Delaware Bay, likely some time this evening.
Rain will taper off this morning, with any visibility restrictions likely to end by midday.
Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag Sunday will probably be lowered during the evening and winds and seas subside. Fair.
Monday through Wednesday...Winds and seas occasionally rise to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Fair weather expected.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ430-431.