Florida Bay including Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast And Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop, Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...Northeast To East Winds Near 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...Northeast To East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To Near 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Wednesday...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 325pm EDT Sunday Oct 11 2026 Issued at 320pm EDT Sunday Oct 11 2026 The flow field across the Florida Keys finally began to change this morning. GOES East water vapor satellite observations indicate there is a pronounced moisture gradient currently over the Florida Keys. Dry air associated with a rebuilding subtropical ridge slowly moved over the nearshore and offshore waters this morning, as evidenced by estimates of environmental PWAT (Precipitable Water) from GOES-East. There is a gradient of approximately 1.5 inches to around 2.2 inches from the Upper Keys to the Lower Keys. The problem was that mixture between heavily saturated and drier air across the Keys was enhancing instability over the Outer Gulf waters. The extensive amount of moisture observed by this morning's 12Z KKEY sounding, nearly 2.5 inches of precipitable water, existed in an atmosphere with little to no inhibition. The source of lift provided by weakly confluent flow in the lower levels allowed thunderstorms to develop just northwest of Key West. However, as the drier air stabilizes over the Florida Keys, one can expect shower coverage to decrease. The other issue for showers this afternoon and tonight is that this dry layer is stuck above the surface layer. Even though skies are on track to clear, dew points are forecast to remain in the upper 70s to near 80 across the island chain. Tonight is setting up to be another muggy, humid night for the Keys. There are a couple of points of uncertainty this week. First, a frontal boundary extending from a large mid-latitude cyclone, the remains of Major Hurricane Isaias, is primed to stall near the Florida Keys during the early part of the week. Statistical guidance suggests the front will be able to move south of the island chain, but exactly how much temperatures and dew points will drop remains uncertain. While a few days ago, statistical models suggested dew points could decrease to the upper 60s, the near 70 to the lower 70s appears more likely for the island chain. Breezes are expected to freshen to gentle to moderate after frontal passage. Shower coverage is expected to pick back up sometime midweek. The most notable feature for the forecast is what models are resolving over the weekend. Deterministic models suggest a potent front could move across the Keys on Saturday to Sunday. However, the seven day forecast is a bit far out. Expect this forecast to change quite a bit as we get closer to the weekend. Marine Issued at 320pm EDT Sunday Oct 11 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the nearshore or offshore waters of the Florida Keys. Boaters should be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges around times of high tide as a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys. Breezes slackened to gentle to moderate southeasterlies across the reef as a drier air mass moved over the eastern waters. From synopsis: A couple of nearby features will define the weather across the Florida Keys for the first half of the week. The Atlantic Ridge is gradually weakening and moving east towards the central Atlantic. Another weak high pressure system is located over the Gulf. Between the two pressure systems a a weak frontal boundary that is set up across central Florida. The front is primed to pass across the Keys waters sometime early in the week, and promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes. Shower chances are forecast to be slight before mid-week before the previously mentioned front stalls near the Keys waters. Late in the week, there is a chance a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys. Frontal passage with this cold front could occur over next weekend, and we will continue monitoring this system. Climate On this day in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 8.94" was recorded in Key West as a Category 3 Hurricane moved rapidly northeast from the western tip of Cuba along and just south of the entire length of the Keys. It caused nearly a million dollars in damage in Key West, drowned 12 railroad workers, and destroyed about 400 buildings. Sand Key recorded a minimum pressure of 28.37" with winds estimated at 100 mph before being swept out to sea. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
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