Marine Weather Net

Florida Bay including Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

VARIABLE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRIDAY

VARIABLE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ031 Forecast Issued: 441 PM EDT Wed May 05 2021

Tonight...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Bay Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South To Southwest. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers.
Thursday Night...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers.
Friday...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming West To Northwest And Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots Late. Bay Waters Smooth, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Friday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming North And Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy, Becoming A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Saturday...North To Northeast Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming East. Bay Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Showers.
Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Sunday...Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Isolated Showers.
Monday...Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
441 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021

High pressure over the western North Atlantic will recede to the east tonight and Thursday. A trough will approach and cross the Florida Keys Thursday night or Friday, with fresh northwest breezes expected for several hours on Friday evening. Easterly breezes will freshen once again Saturday night, and will peak on Sunday night.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of May 04...
- 46 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 33 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 21 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 10 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 7 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 6 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 7 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 6 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
253pm EDT Wednesday May 5 2021

Southeast breezes are waning across the Florida Keys as the western Atlantic ridge axis recedes to the east. Our slug of nearly 2.0" of PW which we had this morning is northwest of the Dry Tortugas at the moment. Healthy cumulus streamers late this morning are now emaciated and eroding along the Lower Keys. Cuba and South Florida have rather benign seabreezes, supporting the notion of a dry and stable pattern across the basin.

Temperatures across the island chain are 85 to 90 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Skies are sunny and the KBYX radar is echo free.

.FORECAST... The mean layer ridging will retreat to the southeast tonight and Thursday, giving way to lower heigheights along the southern flank of a long wave trough axis. Light southeast steering along the island chain will become variable Thursday afternoon. Light and variable surface winds and meager moisture (better moisture profiles north of the island chain) will limit rain chances to slight at best. However, steep mid-level lapse rates will be waiting for any overachievers to race towards the EL. Storms over South Florida are expected, and a few may collapse towards the Upper Keys late Thursday afternoon.

The thermal circulation will merge with a weak synoptic surface trough on Friday over Florida, with fresh northwest breezes racing down the Southwest Florida coast Friday evening. Low-level convergence and weak cyclonic curvature should retain slight rain chances Friday and Friday night, despite the dearth of organized moisture.

High pressure over the southeastern United States will slide east into the western North Atlantic Saturday and Saturday night. As the high takes on subtropical aspirations, east to southeast breezes will freshen, peaking Sunday night. A fair-weather pattern will prevail Monday through Wednesday, with slight to near nil rain chances, above normal temperatures, and tropical breezes. The seven-day forecast is on track and no changes were needed.

Marine
There are High pressure over the western North Atlantic will recede to the east tonight and Thursday. A trough will approach and cross the Florida Keys Thursday night or Friday, with fresh northwest breezes expected for several hours on Friday evening. Easterly breezes will freshen once again Saturday night, and will peak on Sunday night.

Climate
On this day in 1889, the daily record cold high temperature of 72F was recorded in Key West. This is also the coldest high temperature ever recorded in May. Temperature records date back to 1872.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.