Marine Weather Net

Florida Bay including Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SSW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SSW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ESE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THURSDAY

ESE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ031 Forecast Issued: 424 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Tonight...South To Southwest Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...South To Southwest Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...East To Southeast Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East To Southeast Winds Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday And Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
424 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

A ridge axis will straddle Florida over the next several days. Light to gentle southeast breezes, and near normal rain and thunder chances are expected. A meager wind surge Thursday night may result in a brief period of moderate breezes for portions of the Straits of Florida and near the Reef, however, light to gentle breezes will prevail through the extended forecast.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of July 27...
- 57 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 24 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 21 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 21 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 21 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 13 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 6 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 3 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
251pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021

KBYX currently shows very little activity across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. CIMSS MIMIC PW shows a pocket of drier air moving in from near Cuba, which has mostly shut down shower activity this afternoon. Temperatures across the island chain are in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s, making for quite a muggy day. Breezes are currently gentle to light, as we remain in a light flow regime. This is caused by the Florida Keys being wedged in between a surface trough extending from an area low pressure near the Georgia coast and a surface ridge extending from high pressure near Bermuda. The light flow and the drier air will likely keep showers isolated overnight tonight.

The surface ridge will continue to build back into the region through the week. The associated ridge axis will oscillate near and around the Florida Keys over the next few days, leading to periods of light and variable winds. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will keep our winds generally from the east to southeast through next week. The TUTT cell currently located across central Cuba will propagate northwestward and enter the Straits of Florida overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, remaining in the vicinity of the island chain through Thursday. While there will be some large-scale ascent with this feature, drier air looks to move in around the same time, so have retained slightly below normal Probability of Precipitation for these days.

After the passage of this TUTT cell, there is no feature of note moving through the area over the weekend. Mesoscale processes will likely dominate and cloud line development will be possible during times of light and variable flow. Another TUTT cell looks to move near the southeast coast of Florida by Sunday night into Monday morning, however, do to the uncertainty this far out, will keep near climatology rain chances (20-30%) through the extended forecast. Temperatures will remain near normal through the forecast period, with highs generally in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 80s.

Marine
No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis: A ridge axis will straddle Florida over the next several days. Light to gentle southeast breezes, and near normal rain and thunder chances are expected. A meager wind surge Thursday night may result in a brief period of moderate breezes for portions of the Straits of Florida and near the Reef, however, light to gentle breezes will prevail through the extended forecast.

Climate
On this day in 1930, the daily record low temperature of 70F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.