Florida Bay including Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds Marine Forecast
|Today...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming South And Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth, Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...South To Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast To South After Midnight. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...South Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast And Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth, Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To Near 10 Knots. Bay Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay Waters Choppy. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Key West FL
359am EDT Monday May 16 2022
The GOES-16 mid-level water vapor puts the Keys in a sharp gradient with dry continental air to our northwest and moist tropical air to the south/east. A weak ridge of high pressure east of the Bahamas continues to retreat to the east, and a deep trough in the Gulf of Mexico is swinging northeast. Over the last several hours, the moist tropical air has eroded the drier air over the Keys and should eventually erode enough to induce showers and isolated thunderstorms today. CIMMS-MIMIC imagery shows a rich plume of moisture greater than 2.0 inches of precipitable water slowly lifting into the the Florida Straits and the Hawk Channel. The rich tropical moisture will affect the Keys periodically this morning, with the bulk of the activity focused near the Middle and Upper Keys. A weak mid-level trough will transverse the Florida Peninsula late this morning, simultaneously, a sharp jet maximum with winds ranging from 80 to 100 knots will pass over the Keys. The jet will provided the showers and thunderstorms upper- level ventilation and keep the showers and thunderstorms from weakening quickly. At this time, the primary threat is ordinary cells producing moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Nevertheless, we can't rule out an isolated discrete cell developing from the convection today. As the trough slides east of Florida late this afternoon through the evening, the shower activity will move east of the Keys but still lingering in the Straits of Florida.
Late tonight through Wednesday...probability of precipitation are expected to be near normal at (20%) as a ridge builds in the area, and deep tropical moisture moves east and southeast of the Keys. The end of the week looks unsettled as the ridge moves north into the western north Atlantic. The displacement of the ridge to the north will allow deep tropical moisture form the Central American Gyre to slowly drift northward while developing into a surface low pressure in the western Caribbean. Due to the high uncertainty with the long- term forecast, I will maintain 30 to 40 percent probability of precipitation until the forecast picture becomes more apparent.
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle mainly southerly breezes will prevail early this week as high pressure remains over the north western Atlantic waters. The high pressure will build across the western north Atlantic to the southeast coast of the United States during midweek, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes later Wednesday through Friday.
In 1991, the daily record high temperature of 90F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1873 in Key West.
NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories