Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Light And Variable Winds. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Areas Of Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Areas Of Fog In The Morning, Then Patchy Fog In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas Around 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming N After Midnight. Seas Around 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 1 Foot, Then 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
650pm EDT Thu July 18 2019
Synopsis: High pressure will move east of the area later tonight into Friday. A warm front will cross the region later Friday. A cold front will approach Saturday then slowly cross the region Sunday. The front will stall across the Gulf of Maine Monday. High pressure will build toward the region later Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Friday
630pm Update: Just minor changes to forecast hourly temps into the ovrngt mostly to account to late day obsvd hi temps as reflected by current erly eve obs. Otherwise, minor changes were made to fcst ovrngt winds mostly to hi terrain and broad vly areas. No changes to forecast ovrngt low temps this update.
Prev Disc: The 1016mb surface high will slowly weaken and drift eastward tonight. Temperatures aloft will warm overnight, but the cool air mass in place a the surface will allow a shallow and steep radiation inversion to occur overnight. This means lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the area. The inversion will quickly erode in the morning and dew points will creep upward throughout the day towards the 60s. Some thicker clouds and scattered showers will affect northern zones ahead of the surface warm front. The associated shortwave will be decaying as it moves through the area and most energy will be to north in Canada. As a result, don't foresee much more than a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall in general. There's not much instability until later in the day closer to the surface warm front, but there won't be much moisture or a good forcing mechanism by that point. As a result, will continue to mention just a slight chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon, mostly in western zones and most likely towards the Moosehead Lake region. Friday's highs will reach the lower to mid 80s for most of the area except the coast. Along the coast, the onshore flow will limit highs to the lower 70s. Some fog may start to affect the immediate coast by early evening
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will approach northern Maine Friday night. Any lingering diurnal showers/thunderstorms across northern areas will dissipate early Friday night, leaving generally partly cloudy skies across the forecast area overnight. However, low clouds and fog from the Gulf of Maine could advect northward overnight. Hot and humid conditions will occur across the region Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 80s to around 90 north, to 90 to 95 interior Downeast with mid 80s to around 90 along the Downeast coast. The combination of these temperatures and dewpoints around 70 could produce heat advisory level apparent temperatures across southern and central portions of the forecast area Saturday. Heat Advisory criteria is 95 degree or greater heat index values for at least 2 consecutive hours. Warm temperatures aloft should help limit convective potential Saturday. However, the slowly approaching weak cold front and diurnal instability could support at least a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms across the region with the better chances across the north and mountains. Though thunderstorm coverage is expected to be limited, any storms which do form could be strong. Indications are that a convective complex moving east along the slowly approaching weak cold front and moving over the top of the upper ridge could cross the region Saturday night bringing a chance of showers/thunderstorms to the forecast area. However, the exact track and strength of the complex are still uncertain. The weak cold front will cross the region Sunday, with weak low pressure possibly developing along the front. Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms across the region Sunday. However, the extent of convection is still uncertain dependent on impacts from the overnight convective complex and cloud cover. Temperatures Sunday are expected to range from around 80 north, to the mid to upper 80s interior Downeast while ranging through the 80s along the Downeast coast with slightly lower humidity levels across the entire forecast area
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
The cold front will sink south of the region Sunday night, reaching the Gulf of Maine overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will occur with the front, then diminish overnight in the wake of the front. The front should stall across the Gulf of Maine Monday, while high pressure builds toward the region. Low pressure tracking along the stalled front could bring a slight chance of showers to mostly Downeast areas Monday through Monday night. A series of cold fronts/trofs should then cross the region Tuesday through Thursday though the timing is uncertain. Expect a slight chance of showers Tuesday, with a better chance of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday with another chance of showers Thursday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Near Term: VFR conditions with excellent vis, light winds and no cigs will continue into Friday morning. There is a chance of some MVFR cigs towards the coast and BHB Friday morning. There's also the threat of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm, most likely towards GNR and MLT.
Short Term: Friday night...VFR/MVFR early. Variable conditions with low clouds and fog overnight ranging from VFR to LIFR.
Saturday...Variable conditions early with low clouds and fog. Otherwise, generally VFR with isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible.
Saturday night and Sunday...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. Low clouds and fog also possible later Saturday night through early Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday...Generally VFR. Local MVFR with any showers
Near Term: Winds will remain generally under 10 kts with seas two feet or less. Fog is expected to develop later tonight, but probably not in Penobscot Bay. The fog, or some degradation to visibility will likely remain to some degree during Friday and thicken in the evening while moving towards the shore and into the bays.
Short Term: Conditions will remain below small craft advisory levels Friday night through Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Friday night into Sunday. Could also have a chance of showers/thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
Near record high temperatures possible Saturday. The record high temperature in Bangor on Saturday, 7/20 is 96F set in 1991, and we are forecasting 94F. In Millinocket, the record high on 7/20 is 93F set in 1991, and we are forecasting 93F. The records in Caribou and Houlton appear to be out of reach at this time.
Near record warm low temperatures are possible Saturday morning.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories