Marine Weather Net

Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ052 Forecast Issued: 1124 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Overnight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 11 Seconds. Patchy Fog.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 11 Seconds.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.
Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds.
Fri Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Sat...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1127pm EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2024

Synopsis
High pressure will remain south of the region through Wednesday night. A cold front will cross the area Thursday followed by high pressure building in through Saturday, then sliding to the east Saturday night. A warm front will lift over the area on Sunday.

Near Term - Through Wednesday
11:25 PMTemperatures are still in the upper 70s and only cooling off very slowly due to the humidity. Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover with some patchy cloudiness over western areas. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion... Near record to record heat and humidity will continue to build through Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure extends north of Bermuda, bringing very warm humid air and broad southwest flow at all levels. Guidance remains consistent in showing 925mb temperatures around 27C, suggesting surface temperatures in the mid 90s even without full sunshine. Projections of mid level moisture have increased over the last 24 hours, leading to less transfer of drier air aloft towards the surface than previously anticipated. As a result, forecast dew points were increased by a couple degrees into the 72-74F range. This, combined with the air temperatures, will lead to areas around the Bangor Region and Penobscot Valley exceeding 105 degree Excessive Heat Warning criteria for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. For the first time in the history of our weather forecast office, an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued, valid for southern Piscataquis and central/southern Penobscot Counties from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

Despite ample instability, convection chances remain limited over the next 24 hours due to large scale subsidence and warm temperatures aloft. Any activity this evening and again on Wednesday will remain isolated (20 percent chance or less). If a storm does form, it would be capable of producing gusty winds and briefly torrential rain.

A strong seabreeze will extend across all of coastal Downeast Maine and into portions of Interior Downeast Maine tonight through Wednesday. The stability will lead to poor air quality across portions of the area, especially coastal Hancock County where the Maine Department of Environment Protection has issued an Air Quality Alert. Patchy fog is also possible over these areas later tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
Wednesday Night... Extraordinarily warm temperatures Wednesday night thanks to the very warm airmass and limited decoupling/good mixing. Went on the warm side of guidance, with lows in the low to mid 70s, except 60s along the coast. The warmest low temperatures will likely be in the north. Can't totally rule out an isolated storm through the evening, but can't pinpoint where the isolated storm would be, so went with broadbrushed 15-20 PoPs.

Thursday... Upper level ridge begins to flatten and a surface cold front enters Northern Maine. Some uncertainty in exact timing of the cold front, and the timing of the front would determine where storms are the most abundant, and how far north the 90s make it. Right now, think the best shot at storms, which could be strong/severe, will be from Houlton and Greenville south. Also the low to mid 90s should be along and south/east of I-95, with heat advisory criteria being met again easily in these areas. In fact, Thursday should be the warmest day for immediate coastal Downeast thanks to shore-parallel or slight offshore flow. The far north will see drier, cooler air beginning to move in behind the front mid/late afternoon. Again, some uncertainty on the speed of the front, and the north/south position of the storms and the 90s could vary some.

Thursday Night and Friday... Some storms Thursday evening Downeast just ahead of the cold front, then the cold front moves offshore, with at last some drier and cooler air working in from the north areawide Thursday night into Friday. The push of drier/cooler air will be stronger in the north, but all areas will have welcome relief. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s in the north and low 80s Downeast. Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid 50s Downeast. Compare this to the low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cold front. Plus, there will be a decent NW breeze on Friday. No precipitation expected Friday. Models have trended stronger with the push of cooler/drier air for Thu night/Fri, and went along with this trend.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
High pressure builds in Friday night but is short-lived, as it moves east late Saturday as the next system approaches from the west. Rain chances begin to increase late Saturday afternoon into evening, but the best rain chances appear to be late Saturday night through Monday. Most models/ensembles have low pressure tracking to our north, which would bring a warm front early Sunday, eventually followed by a cold front sometime roughly Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Monday. The airmass looks somewhat warm/humid in between the warm front and cold front, but not remotely as warm/humid as what we are seeing now. Quieter weather for Tuesday.

Marine
Near Term: Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through Wednesday. Seas will generally range around 2 to 3 feet, with winds around 10 to 15 kts.

Short Term: Winds/seas could get near small craft levels Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but likely stay just below. Conditions then likely below small craft until Sunday night/Monday, when there is a reasonable shot at small craft conditions from winds/seas.

Climate
Temperatures will soar under an anomalously upper level high pressure system, challenging record high temperatures and record max minimum temperatures. Multiple days of record breaking temperatures will lead to dangerous heat without a chance for reprieve overnight.

June 19th High Temperature Records: (Forecast)

Caribou (96) 96 in 2020 Bangor (95) 95 in 1995 Millinocket (96) 95 in 2020 Houlton (95) 95 in 2020

June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records: (Forecast)

Caribou (67) 68 in 1970 Bangor (72) 72 in 1931 Millinocket (71) 69 in 1923 Houlton (65) 67 in 1976

June 20th High Temperature Records: (Forecast)

Caribou (89) 93 in 2020 Bangor (95) 95 in 2020 Millinocket (93) 96 in 2020 Houlton (91) 94 in 2020

All-time Record Highs: (Forecast, Day)

Caribou (96 June 19) 96 June 2020 Bangor (95 June 19/20) 104 August 1935 Millinocket(96 June 19) 101 June 1907 Houlton (95 June 19) 99 August 1975

All-time Record Max Minimum Temperature Records: (Forecast, Day)

Caribou (69 June 19) 71 in July 2018 Bangor (72 June 20) 77 in August 1949 Millinocket(71 June 20) 80 in July 1912 Houlton (70 June 19) 72 in August 2009

NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Wednesday for MEZ001>006-010.
Heat Advisory until 10am EDT Wednesday for MEZ011-015-031.

Excessive Heat Warning...om 10am to 8pm EDT Wednesday for MEZ011-015-031.
Heat Advisory from 10am to 8pm EDT Wednesday for MEZ016-017- 032.
Air Quality Alert from 11am to 11pm EDT Wednesday for MEZ029.

Marine
None.