Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely In The Evening, Then Rain And Snow Likely After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
Thu...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Snow Likely In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
Thu Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Light Freezing Spray After Midnight. |
Fri...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning. |
Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft. Snow Likely Through The Day. Rain Likely Through The Night, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 544am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024 Synopsis Low pressure slowly exits across the Maritimes today. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes and southwestern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure develops near the coast Wednesday night, that tracks into the Maritimes on Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night and Friday, followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest Saturday into Sunday. Near Term - Through Tonight 545am Update: Based on latest radar ref evolution across NE ptns of the Region. it was necessary to xpnd chance sn shwr PoPs further SW then the prev fcst, and mention lclzd sn accums of up to an inch for ptns of N Cntrl and NE Aroostook county, spcly in a band from about Eagle Lake to to just W of Bridgewater, refs greater than 20 DBZ are currently occurring. Most meso models indicates that this band weakening by 7-8am, with remnant lighter sn showers continuing thru the remainder of the morn. Minor adjustments were also made to increase cld cvr til mid morn over NE and E Cntrl ptns of the Rgn. Otherwise, latest surface obs were used to estimate erly morn fcst lows and to update forecast hourly temps thru midday, resulting in a net rise of 2 to 3 deg F mostly over Northern areas durg this tm frame. Despite this bias, we kept Aftn forecast high temps across this area the same as last update, thinking that the relative lack of direct sunshine will result in a flatter diurnal rise in temps thru the remainder of the Morn. If were wrong here, there will be a better bias trends to raise Aftn high temps in the next forecast update or two. Prev Disc: Still some left over llevel moisture tdy on the the back side of a departing first of a double upper trough system, which will keep clouds and isolated to scattered light sn showers and scattered flurries spcly over far NE ptns of the FA, with little or no sn accumulation. The rest of the FA will be partly to mostly cldy. High temps tdy will be near to slightly above seasonal norms with gusty WNW winds. Flurries and isolated sn showers should exit E and end across Northern ptns of the FA by early this Evening. Tonight: very skinny surface ridge will bring partly cloudy skies and dmnshg winds for all of the Region. before cldnss begins to increase over far Wrn areas by daybreak Wednesday ahead of a stronger Alberta clipper s/wv arriving from Cntrl Can. Low temps will be near seasonal norms. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night A very complex setup in the short term for potential impactful snowfall Wednesday Night into Thursday. Wednesday will feature a clipper like system diving southeast into Quebec with warm air advection over Maine. This will likely result in light precipitation developing with increasing boundary layer moisture advection on SE winds. Temperatures will be warming above freezing during the day so mixed PTypes likely with rain south and rain/snow or snow north. Highs top out in the low 40s south and upper 30s to around 40F north. Wednesday evening there is increasing agreement with some of the operational and ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and to an extent the CMC. 500mb shortwave energy will dive southeast over Western New England which allows for strengthening upper level divergence over Cape Cod to Boston area. This will give way to surface cyclogenesis somewhere north of Cape Cod to perhaps the Portland area. ECMWF operational and ECMWF based AI model tilts the 500mb trough negatively and rapidly strengthens the surface low along the Midcoast and tracks it northeast into Maine. The latest ops runs from the CMC takes the low well northwest near Maine/Quebec border with the GFS (Global Forecast System) into coastal Washington county. Looking at the modeled thicknesses for the CMC gives strong belief its a outlier. Opted to take a blend of the GFS/CMC which is basically what the 00z ECMWF operational looks like taking a low from BHB to HUL. Wednesday night the boundary layer will dynamically cool as the low deepens and colder air is drawn southeastward into Maine. Strong agreement with some potentially heavier precipitation falling along and NW of the center of the low wherever that track may be given stronger FGEN and decent DGZ that sets up. The challenge in the forecast going into Thursday is how fast the back edge of the precipitation ends. ECMWF keeps precipitation going with a strong deformation band on the backside while GFS looks more like a dry slot shutting things off Thursday AM. Opted to stick with an NBM blend for the day with steady precipitation confined across the north with precipitation ending south. During the day as precipitation comes to an end expect strong cold air advection to develop with the Moosehead and North s areas to reach their highs before midday before falling. W-NW winds will rapidly increase as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the storm with gusts 30-40mph possible. Snowfall when all said and done looking like 3-6 inches across the northern 1/2 of the CWA (County Warning Area) with 1-3 inches in southern 1/2. Thursday night expect snow showers to come to an end across the north with gradual clearing through the night. It will be a brisk night with strong W-NW winds across the area. Winds gusting 30-40mph with temperatures falling back into the teens across much of the area with single digits for Moosehead and the North s. Wind Chills may approach -5 to -15F across the north and -5F to +5F across the south. Long Term - Friday Through Monday Friday surface high pressure will slowly build in from the west in Quebec during the day. Pressure gradient weakens slightly but still expected westerly gusts 25-30mph. Despite mostly sunny skies the temperatures will be below normal in the mid to upper 20s across the north with low 30s across Central Highlands and Downeast. This weekend features some significant differences in the operational runs but similarities in the ensemble members for these models. The GFS is the consistent operational run that remains bullish on a storm system on Saturday lasting into Sun AM with potential of Rain & Snow across the area. The ECMWF has shifted westward with the latest runs but still a weaker system. The CMC keeps up on the northern fringe of a more deeper storm down in the Mid-Atlantic states with some precip. Opted to stick with the NBM for now which is leaning closer to the ensemble members similar to the GFS operational runs. Likely POPs on Saturday becoming chance POPs on Sunday. Temperatures slightly cooler than normal favor snow north and rain/snow south. Potentially active weather continues into next week with rounds of precipitation. Marine Near Term: No hdlns xpctd Tdy thruTonight: ax wv heights to 4 ft and wind gusts to 22kt over open waters tdy, then lower winds and wvs tngt. Kept close to blended model wv guidance for forecast wv heights with wv pds mostly between 5 and 8 sec. Short Term: Wednesday expecting S winds generally 10-20kt with a few gusts to 25kt. Waves building 2-4ft with a period of 7-8sec. Winds shift W overnight into Thu AM. Winds rapidly increase to Gales behind departing storm system. Westerly gusts increase 40-45kt during the day and last into Fri AM. Seas build 4-8ft on Thu with a period of 8-9sec. Winds fall back into SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions as they shift NW Fri AM. Seas subside 2-4ft on Fri. Winds fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Fri night. Next chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are Sat-Sunday with another storm system. In terms of precipitation, expect rain on Wednesday becoming Rain/Snow mix late Wednesday Night and then Snow by Thuam which may reduce vsby at times. Additionally, Light Freezing Spray will be possible late Thu night into Fri AM. NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...None. Marine None. |