Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Isolated Showers Late This Morning, Then Scattered Showers With Isolated Tstms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Scattered Showers.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
946am EDT Tuesday July 14 2020
Weak low pressure will track across the gulf of Maine today then south of Nova Scotia tonight. High pressure will build down from the north on Wednesday and crest over the area Wednesday night. High pressure will slide east of the area Thursday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area Friday. High pressure will return on Saturday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
940 AM Added patchy drizzle mainly east of the higher terrain in line with satellite and observations. Low level stratus will inhibit warming across these areas today, so high temperatures were also lowered a couple degrees based on where thicker cloud cover is currently located.
Previous Discussion... Cold front residing over the coastal waters this morning. Some fog has developed across the Bangor and parts of the Downeast this morning thanks in part to clearing and the earlier rainfall. Satl imagery showed lower clouds were starting to slide into the region from NB. NNE flow in llevels followed by a light S flow above 750 mbs leading to an overrunning pattern. UA showed deep moisture in place from 925-700mbs aiding the cloud development. Expecting the clouds to move across the region into the afternoon as the aforementioned pattern stays in place. This will make for a much cooler day than we have seen in the past week. Afternoon temps might be hard pressed to hit 70 especially across the northern areas. Further s, there might be enough of a window into early afternoon for some heating before the clouds move in w/temps reaching into the 70s. The NAM, GFS as the latest HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) show an inverted trough from weak low pressure off the southern Maine coast, extending into ne Maine. This feature will be the focus for showers as well as some drizzle. An upper trough sliding across the region this afternoon will provide the needed forcing for shower activity. Across the Bangor area and especially the Downeast region, sounding data showed CAPE of 500-700 joules across the Downeast region w/some weak shear(20 kts). Lapse rates are enough to allow for updrafts which would support tstm development. The offset for any organized convection is that if clouds arrive sooner, then convective temps won't be realized. Attm, decided to stay w/the daycrew's assessment and go w/isolated tstms. The better chance for convection looks to be across southern Maine toward Augusta and s. A light wind field through 700 mbs and PWs around 1.5 inches will allow for some heavy downpours. Interestingly enough, the latest RAP soundings do support some shear around 25 kts and an inverted V in the llevels w/a dry wedge above 800mbs to support some gusty winds in any tstm. Again, this looks to be more so toward the Augusta region.
Shower activity will be winding down overnight as the upper trof slides off the ese and forcing weakens. Gradual clearing is expected to take place well afternoon midnight beginning across northern areas and working its way se. Much cooler temps for tonight w/areas such as the Allagash and far NW Maine seeing upper 40s.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
High pressure will be building down from the north Wednesday morning as weak low pressure, both surface and aloft, slide to our east, south of Nova Scotia. The north will begin mostly clear Wednesday morning with clouds lingering from the low over central and Downeast areas. The sky will continue to clear from north to south Wednesday as the low continues to move away and the high builds down. This will give way to a mostly sunny afternoon. High pressure will settle over the area Wednesday night bringing a clear calm night. Some patchy valley fog is likely by early Thursday morning. Otherwise, Thursday will begin mostly sunny. Clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon as high pressure slides east of the region and a fast moving shortwave trough begins to approach from the west. Clouds will continue to increase Thursday night and some showers may begin to move into western areas by early Friday morning. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in far northwestern areas as a function of warmer air advecting north beneath the cooler westerlies aloft.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Monday
The shortwave trough will cross the area Friday bringing some showers with the best chance for showers in western areas. Warmer and more humid air advecting north beneath the cooler air aloft may result in some convection and isolated thunderstorms in far western and northwestern areas. However, as the frontal boundary pushes east, a layer of cooler maritimes air being pulled north on southerly winds will result in a low level stable layer which will limit convection further east. Therefore, will mention thunder in western areas but just showers further east. The shortwave will push east Friday night as warmer high pressure and ridging build in on Saturday with a return of sunshine. By Sunday we will be in a tight westerly flow between upper ridging to the south and a trough of low pressure centered over Hudson Bay. Another shortwave later Sunday into Sunday night will bring a chance of showers and, with warmer more humid air now in place, thunderstorms later Sunday into Sunday night. The frontal boundary will remain over the area Monday bringing a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. Strong winds aloft mean any thunderstorms Sunday into Monday could transfer some strong gusty winds to the surface. High pressure should then follow with a return of mostly sunny and a bit cooler and drier weather on Tuesday.
Near Term: No headlines this term. NNE winds 5 to 10 kt today w/seas 3-4 ft. Winds are expected to pick up tonight w/NE winds 10-15 kt and a few gusts to 20 kt. This type of set up should allow for seas to build some to near 5 ft over the outer zones, while the intra coastal zone sees 3-4 ft.
Short Term: Northeast winds Wednesday morning may approach 25 kt in a few gusts over the offshore waters. Otherwise, Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) from Wednesday through the coming weekend. Vsbys are expected to be good Wednesday into Thursday as slightly drier high pressure moves north of the area. Fog may begin to limit visibilities again Friday into the weekend with a return of humidity.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories