Marine Weather Net

Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ052 Forecast Issued: 624 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tue Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.
Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
617pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Synopsis
An upper disturbance will move across the region Sunday. High pressure will build into the region Sunday night and Monday. Low pressure will approach the region on Tuesday and move near the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. Low pressure will slowly track east into Thursday.

Near Term - Through Sunday
6:17pm Update: Satellite pictures and observations indicate a mostly cloudy sky across the FA with just a few breaks in the overcast in spots. Later this evening and overnight expect the clouds to gradually break up across the southern half of the FA, but it will likely remain mostly cloudy in the north. Temperatures tonight will be seasonably cool with lows mostly in the 30 to 35 degree range north, and 35 to 40 south. Made a few minor tweaks based on the latest observations and satellite pictures, but overall changes were very minor.

Previous discussion: A fairly benign weather pattern across the area thru the weekend. Low pressure is riding along a stalled front to the south of the waters this afternoon and will likely track thru Nova Scotia this evening. Low clouds are present over Downeast and but will likely begin to move off this evening, leaving pcloudy skies. Mostly cloudy conds also over the North s courtesy of nwrly flow will also dissipate this evng.

Skies will likely clr toward morning over Downeast with partly- mostly cloudy conds continue over central and northern sxns before brief s/wv ridge axis pushes north during the day Sunday. Srn zones likely to see full sunshine tomorrow with skies clearing as far north as the St. John Vly just after sunset. Temps for tomorrow will be very similar to today with maxes very near normal.

Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
Sunday night surface high pressure will be situated off the Mid- Atlantic coast shifting east out over the open Atlantic. A warm front will be lifting north through the night into Monam but at the same time a strong 1030mb high will shift over James Bay. Expect a chilly morning across the north with upper 20s to low 30s and mid to upper 30s across the south. This strong high to the north will likely result in the warm front stalling somewhere over the FA since the high will be blocking northward advancement. Significant run to run disagreements make this forecast a challenge. As of right now the best chances of rain associated with the warm front will be across southern 1/3rd of the FA with just slight chances north. Given the clouds, rain and lack of northward movement highs will struggle to get to 50F except right along the shoreline.

This is a difficult part of the forecast. Monday Night - Tuesday a potent shortwave will dig under the strong 500mb riding and begin to slow down in the flow. Surface low pressure will track due east to the Long Island area but the 12z GFS, Euro ops runs have added a huge level uncertainty to track. Previous runs suggested shortwave energy capturing the system and taking a low pressure NE into New England but now 12z runs show the lows becoming vertically stacked and stalled if not retrograding south of the area. This is because latest runs suggest the blocking high to the north will strengthen a cold air dam which will prevent rain from making it too far north. Given this significant uncertainty opted to continue with midnight crew forecast Monday into Tue. This means chance POPs Monday with best chances south and chance POPs north on Tuesday with likely POPs across the southern 2/3rd of the FA on Tuesday. If the 12z ECMWF/GFS guidance today is the outlier we can expect a significant rainstorm Monday Night - Tuesday with strong transport of Atlantic moisture, FGEN forcing and strong vertical lift. Mentioning the outlier potential it is interesting that the 12z Canadian run continues with this significant rainstorm as previous GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) runs included. No doubt the pressure gradient will tighten up as well so we can expect some breezy conditions no matter what happens with exact storm track.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
Tuesday night - Thuam is again highly dependent on what happens with this storm track. If the stalling/retrograde occurs over the Gulf of Maine we can expect rain to continue through this period. If the 12z GFS/ECMWF is right then POPs will be much less with stronger high to the north. As of right now will lean towards the 12z GFS/ECMWF being outliers on position which means we will keep chance to likely POPs in the grids. Highs and lows will be right around average given the cloud cover and rain potential. The pressure gradient will remain decently strong so expect breezy N-NE winds to last through Thuam till high pressure can nose down into the area. Skies will become decently sunny slowly from north to south behind the departing system late in the day Thursday. Once again highs will be dependent on sky conditions but looks like a good shot at low to mid 50s. By Friday models in fairly good agreement that we start out dry with 500mb ridging overhead but another system will be approaching from the west. A chance of showers will increase through late day with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s from NW to SE across the FA. As we approach Halloween it isn't looking great for outdoor activities with the unsettled weather continuing. Another storm system will likely track over the area bringing another rain event.

Marine
Near Term: Seas and winds will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds through tonight. As an upper level disturbance moves across the waters Sun, winds will gust to near 25kts mainly on the outer waters. Confidence is not high enough to introduce a Small Craft Advisory at this point but will allow later shifts to re- evaluate. Seas will also likely be marginal right around 5ft on the furthest reaches of the outer waters.

Short Term: Winds/seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through early Tuesday morning. As storm system approaches, E wind gusts will increase to 25-30kts by Tuesday midday so an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) would likely be needed. In addition to the winds the seas will begin building to between 5 and 7 feet by late day. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds/seas will likely last through Thursday with potential for low end Gales possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday AM.

Climate
The high of 49F this afternoon in Caribou was the lowest high temperature since April 26th.

NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None.

Marine
None.