Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
401pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022
High pressure will crest over the area tonight, then slide southeast of the region on Thursday. A cold front will slowly cross the area Friday followed by high pressure over the weekend into Monday.
Near Term - Through Thursday
Surface low now located over northern Nova Scotia with skies clearing from north to south as high pressure builds in from Ontario. Clear skies and light winds will facilitate min temps falling below normal as ridge axis moves into warning areas after 06z tonight. Cannot rule out patchy vly fog developing over deeper valleys in the North s overnight tonight. Locations under the high in Canada had some patchy fog this morning but did not appear to be widespread so went with persistence.
Tomorrow will feature clear skies to begin the morning with some clouds developing in the afternoon with mid-level moisture lingering. Winds aloft will be much lighter than today. Though a relatively steep mixing layer develops gust will be hard-pressed to reach between 10-15kts. Given full sun and drier air temps will rise about 3-5 degrees warmer than tda but still below normal.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thu night the high pressure will settle south of Nova Scotia with return southwest flow developing at 925-850mb and southerly flow at the surface as a weak warm front lifts north. Moisture will begin advecting northward so expect increasing cloud cover overnight with light south winds 5-10mph. Temps will bottom out in the low 50s north with mid to upper 50s south. Patchy fog will likely develop in the early morning hours along the Downeast coast with the increased low-level moisture as temps cool to increasing dew points. A cold front will approach from Quebec in the morning with showers developing out ahead of it with an increasing warm air mass in the warm sector. There will be some sunny breaks in theam but there is a lot of timing uncertainties with the front forward speed. Have opted to go with a slightly slower forward speed with showers increasing in coverage in theam becoming likely across the north by midday.
There remains some uncertainty to the amount of daytime heating which will determine how much convection occurs. As of now modeled soundings are suggesting 400-800j/kg of SBCAPE as mainly tall & skinny with some models up to 1250j/kg. Low level lapse rates are not as strong in the 7-7.5C/km range given the daytime surface heating variability. Mid level lapse rates are once again poor at 5.8-6.3C/km which has been common this summer. As of right now with a piece of the jet stream diving down over the FA expect deep layer shear to be mainly directional in the 45-55kts range. So, with all that said opted to go with slight chance to chance thunderstorms with and ahead of front during the day. If there were to be any stronger activity it would be in southern zones away from the coastal sea breeze. However, confidence in enhanced wording for storms is low right now to include. All activity comes to an end in the evening as the front pushes into the Gulf of Maine. Highs on Friday will be cooler in the north given the early precipitation and clouds in the low 70s. Southern areas with a better chance of seeing daytime heating expect to top out in the mid to upper 70s. Sea breeze will impact the coastal areas so expect 60s at the shore and on the islands with low 70s along Route 1. Southern zones will be a tad bit humid with afternoon dew points ahead of the front in the low 60s.
Fri night into Saturday a much cooler and drier high pressure air mass moves in from Quebec. Maine sits on the back side of a long wave trough associated with the upper level low north of the Gaspe Peninsula. Strong northwest flow with very dry well mixed environment is expected Saturday afternoon. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 40s north and low 50s south. During the day it will be sunny with just a few clouds across northern areas. NW winds 15-25mph is likely with few gusts across the higher terrain and open fields to 30mph. Dew points will be drier and opted to bring them down into the mid to upper 40s given the deep low level mixing. Highs will be in the upper 60s across the North and Moosehead Lakes region. Low to mid 70s on the downslope side of the Longfellow Mtns including the Bangor and Bar Harbor areas.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Sat night looks like winds will lighten up but unsure if they will go straight calm given the varying differences in model guidance of the MSLP field. If the pressure gradient weakens dramatically it could be a very cool summer morning Sunday AM. At this point we did drop a degree or two off the previous forecast given the high settling over the area. Lows in the mid 40s north and around 50F south. Mainly sunny day expected on Sunday with high pressure over much of the Northeast with continued Northwest flow. Highs in the low 70s north with mid to upper 70s downslope of the mountains in southern areas. Models in fairly decent agreement with high pressure settling south of Nova Scotia on Monday with return flow advecting moisture northeastward on those southwest winds. A cold front will approach from the northwest late day but remain well northwest of the area to allow for just increasing clouds. Temperatures respond to southwest flow so highs in the upper 70s north, low to mid 80s along I-95 corridor with mid 70s at the coast due to a sea breeze. Models continue to show the cold front to slowly creep southeastward during the night with slight chance to chance probability of precipitation across northern 1/2 of the CWA. Tuesday into Wednesday things get tricky with timing... It is looking likely we will have a couple days worth of showers and potentially decent convection given the warm, increasing humid air mass and dynamically support. So went with chance to likely POPs and including thunder during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the 70s to low 80s each day. Morning lows warmer in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area.
Near Term: Seas will fluctuate around 5ft this afternoon over portions of the outer waters but will drop fairly rapidly late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through the day Thursday.
Short Term: Winds are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through early next week. Waves are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through Monday morning. Next chance of waves increasing above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be late Monday into Tuesday with southerly swells.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories