Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers Early, Then Rain Likely Late. |
| Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Snow Likely. Rain Likely In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Snow And Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Freezing Rain In The Morning. Snow And Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Freezing Rain Likely. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 117pm EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Synopsis A weak area of low pressure crosses Maine today, then moves into the southern Maritimes tonight. Weak high pressure builds in Thursday. A complex frontal system approaches Thursday evening, then slowly crosses the region late Thursday night and Friday morning. High pressure then noses down from Canada into Saturday night, as a series of low pressure systems track to the south. A warm front slowly approaches from the south on Sunday. Near Term - Through Tonight 1255 pm An upper level trough remains in the eastern Great Lakes region and is slowly propagating towards the area. Expect the trough to generate sufficient instability for afternoon snow showers...mostly in northern zones. However, the more significant feature is energy rounding the base of the trough that will result in cyclogenesis south of the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. This low will deepen tonight and move south of Nova Scotia. An inverted trough extending westward from the low towards Maine and the upper trough is expected to generate light amounts of snow tonight...most likely for Washington County and southern Aroostook County where 1 to 2 inches are possible after rain changes to snow this evening. Due to the warm boundary layer, much of the precipitation in Washington County will be in the form of rain. Latest analysis and guidance shows somewhat greater snow amounts east of the forecast area for tonight. Previous discussion... A weak upper level shortwave ridge over the area will bring clouds and some breaks of sunshine this morning. A new upper level trough will approach from the west this afternoon. This upper trough will play two roles in enhancing some localized areas of precipitation across the area this afternoon into tonight. The first will be to produce steep lapse rates across the area, mostly over the west and north, with marginal instability up to 12K ft which will result in scattered rain and snow showers. This may include some localized heavier snow and graupel showers this afternoon mainly over the highlands and north. Meanwhile, the upper trough will support surface low pressure well southeast of the Gulf of Maine. An inverted trough extending northwest from this offshore low will reach into the Downeast region enhancing an area of wet snow mainly late this afternoon into this evening. The snow may mix with rain through mid to late afternoon before becoming all snow tonight. Snow showers inland should taper off this evening. The snow Downeast should diminish late tonight as the offshore surface low lifts north into the Maritimes. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night A northern stream shortwave trough exits to the east Thursday morning, followed by northern stream ridging building in Thursday afternoon/evening, then exiting to the east late Thursday night as a northern stream trough moves into Maine by Friday morning, then lifts northeast into New Brunswick and far southeastern Quebec Friday afternoon. These two system will bring two rounds of precipitation, the first mainly isolated to scattered snow showers (possibly mixed with rain showers across eastern Maine in the afternoon). The next batch of precipitation begins as isolated to scattered snow showers across mainly the North Thursday night, then continues into Friday across the entire region, mixing with or changing to rain showers from Southern Aroostook down into the Penobscot Valley and Downeast Maine. Precipitation should be light with less than 1/10 of an inch of liquid equivalent and snow accumulation of less than 1/2 of an inch, mainly on grassy or untreated surfaces. Temperatures Thursday through Friday should be within a few degrees of normal. Weak northern stream shortwave ridging quickly crosses the area followed by a weak northern stream shortwave moving in Friday night. It should be dry Friday evening, then there is the slight chance to chance of some light snow over the SW 2/3 of the CWA late Friday night, with the best chance over southwestern portions of the North s, the entire Central Highlands and Bangor Region, and western Downeast Maine. There is a the potential for up to an inch of snowfall by Saturday morning. Lows Friday night should be a few degrees below normal. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday A weak northern stream shortwave crosses the area Saturday, coupled with some weak low level warm advection should bring a light snow to most of the region, with the best chance from Mount Katahdin on south. The snow could possibly mix with rain across coastal Downeast. Snowfall amounts should remain below advisory levels. Northern stream deep layered ridging then builds in Saturday night and exits to the east on Sunday. This should be sufficient to push most if not all the snow to the south Saturday night. There then is some question as to how fast the ridging exits to the east Sunday, and hence how quickly precipitation returns from S to N on Sunday as low level warm advection strengthens over the region. For now it appears precipitation on Sunday should be mainly Snow across the North with a rain/snow mix over Downeast Maine. In between there could be a wintry mix with possibly some freezing rain, especially over the Central Highlands, where the strongest cold air damming signal typically occurs. The region is under SW flow aloft Sunday night and Monday with multiple shortwaves embedded in this flow crossing the region. These shortwaves coupled with continued strong low level warm advection, will continue to expand the region with a wintry mix Sunday night, with snow and freezing rain (and possibly some sleet - but that should be more brief/transitory so have left out of the forecast for now) across most of the forecast area - with the possible exception of snow holding on over portions of the Crown of Maine and rain near the immediate coast. The precipitation then mixes with and/or changes to all rain from S to N during the day on Monday - with the best chance to change to all rain across Downeast Maine and the Bangor/Penobscot Region. A northern shortwave trough moves in Monday night allowing for enough cold air to build back in to change the perception back to snow showers across the entire region before tapering off late Monday night. This system has the potential to bring a prolonged period of wintry precipitation from late Sunday into Monday, before the mixing with/changing to rain. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty of how quickly any mixing will occur, and how fast precipitation changes to all rain, and how much liquid equivalent precipitation will fall. This is in part due to differences in the models on the exact timing and strength of this system. As a result it is to soon to specify impacts, as the longer there is wintry precipitation, the more delayed and possibly limited any hydrologic impacts would be, including the movement of current ice jams, where as a faster mixing with/changing to rain could lead to more widespread and possibly impactful hydrologic impacts. For now it appears that the strongest winds with this system should stay offshore until possibly late Monday night - with quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter, and more certainty in the former. Bottom line, there will be a period of active weather from late Sunday through Monday night, so please continue to monitor the forecast for changes and refinements with future updates. The main northern stream trough axis passes on Tuesday, with gusty NW winds possible along with noticeably cooler temperatures. Tuesday should be dry though, other than possibly some lingering morning snow showers across Downeast Maine. Marine Near Term: Seas are sustained at 5 to 6 ft and expected to only very slowly subside later today so extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the offshore waters into late afternoon. Winds will be light SW today and light W tonight. Short Term: SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible on the coastal ocean waters from Thursday through Friday night, with conditions likely remaining (just) below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on the intra-coastal waters during this time frame. All waters should be well below SCA levels from Saturday-Saturday night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are probable on the coastal ocean waters and possible on the intra-coastal waters by late Sunday. Hydrology Several ice jams remain locked in place across northern Maine. Ice out is ongoing for many rivers across the Crown of Maine. River ice is leading to a localized risk for ice jam flooding early this week. Flooding is ongoing on North Caribou Road at Strickland Road along the Caribou/Fort Fairfield line due to an ice jam. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for this area. An ice jam remains grounded upriver from Washburn at the Aroostook river bend near Castle Hill and Wade. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for this area. NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. |
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