Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Early This Evening, Then Rain Late This Evening And Overnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...S Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Increasing To 55 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 7 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Evening, Then Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Snow Showers Through The Day. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
333pm EST Wednesday Jan 23 2019
Synopsis: Low pressure will pass to the west of the area tonight. A secondary low will form over the area Thursday and continue northeast in the Maritimes Thursday night.
Near Term - Through Thursday
Low pressure will pass to the west of New England Tonight. A secondary low pressure system will develop over the southwestern New England Thursday then move northeastward across Maine Thursday Afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of both of these systems will cause snow to change to rain and mixed precipitation from south to north across the region Tonight. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected from the Bangor Region northward tonight. Snow should change to mixed precipitation and then rain in central areas during the evening. In the north the change over is expected to occur after midnight. Road surfaces are very cold and may remain below freezing until Thursday Morning. For precipitation type have used the top down method run on a blend of the Nam and Gfs. For snow accumulation have used the snow ratio grids. Freezing rain amounts are expected to remain under a tenth of an inch
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface low will mv into CWA Thu evening as pattern rmns active. Arctic bndry will mv thru during the nighttime hrs with steady snow winding down aft 06z to snow showers as low mvs into the Maritimes Fri mrng. Only minor accums can be expected over the St. John Vly on Thu night. Parameters not pointing to any concern regarding snow squalls along the bndry on Thur night. As temps plummet ovrngt expect that any standing water on roads will freeze leading to a slick commute on Fri morning.
Active pattern rmns in place thru the end of the period with a brief weak system mvg thru the north on Fri afternoon and Fri night. Accums will once again be < 1 inch north of the Katahdin Region into Sat mrng. High pressure builds in fm the west Sat afternoon with skies bcmg psunny. Highs will be in the single digits across the north and arnd 20 for Downeast on Sat.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
May see more snow dvlpng Sunday morning expanding over the CWA during the day. Not necessarily a true Norlun type of event, tho 12z GFS is hinting as such. Cdfnt will mv thru Monday morning with lingering snow showers on Mon. Hipressure expected again on Tuesday with yet another system expected to mv in fm the west on Tuesday aftn.
Near Term: A strong low level jet is expected across the waters on Thursday. Will use the Nam to initialize winds. A strong southerly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday into Thursday with wave heigheights building to around 20 feet/10-11 seconds Late Thursday. The fetch will be broken up by the wind shift into the southwest Thursday Evening with wave heigheights subsiding Thursday Night into Friday. Total Water Level: The ESTOFS storm surge is greater then the ETSS in southerly flow on Thursday. Will favor the higher ESTOFS (+1.25 feet in bay areas) however a southwesterly wind direction would favor a lower surge number due to the coriolis component. Will keep the Base Tide Anomaly at +0.50/0.040 feet for Thursday. Will keep close eye on surface wind speeds Thursday morning as high tide approaches.
Short Term: Wind drop to gale conditions Thur night with SCA level winds lingering into Fri morning. Seas remain above 10 feet into Fri morning, remaining above Small Craft Advisory levels into the day on Sat. Winds diminish as high pressure builds in Sat morning.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Strong southerly winds are expected Thursday afternoon into the early evening. High tide is around 12:45pm and the astronomical tide is near the highest levels of the month. Storm surge models indicate that the maximum surge will occur later in the afternoon. In addition the largest waves are not expected until late afternoon and early evening. Therefore only minimum tidal flooding and overtopping is expected at this time. We will therefore issue a coastal flood statement
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11am EST Thursday for MEZ001>006-010. Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for MEZ011- 015>017-031-032.
Wind Advisory from 9am to 8pm EST Thursday for MEZ016-017- 029-030. MARINE...Storm Warning from 9am to 8pm EST Thursday for ANZ050>052