Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sat...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Rain In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day, Then Rain Likely Through The Night.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
910pm EST Thu Dec 1 2022
High pressure will build south of the area tonight into Friday. Low pressure will approach on Saturday then lift north of the area Saturday evening as it pulls a cold front through. High pressure will build over the area Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night followed by high pressure again on Monday. Low pressure will move towards the area on Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Friday
9:10pm Update: Satellite pictures and observations indicate variable cloud cover with most areas partly to mostly cloudy, but some spots are clear. The trend overnight will be for decreasing clouds. There are still a few snow showers around, and have made some adjustments to the Probability of Precipitation for the next few hours. The last of the snow showers should come to an end around or shortly after midnight. A gusty west to northwest wind will slowly diminish overnight, and will become light in most areas by daybreak.
Previous discussion: A cold upper trough and associated instability is generating locally strong snow showers and squalls this afternoon. The snow squall parameter flashes a good signal for the duration of the afternoon with steep low level lapse rates and strong winds aloft, but the loss of daytime heating and eastward progression of the trough will cause snow shower activity to end. High pressure builds well south of the area tonight. The high will bring clearing, but the pressure gradient suggests winds will be quite slow to decrease tonight and allow decoupling in the boundary layer. The best chance will be in the North s where low teens are forecast. Friday looks mostly sunny under the influence of the high with fairly light southwest winds after the ridge crests in the morning. Some mid clouds are expected Friday afternoon in northern zones. H925 temps will continue dropping through tonight into Friday morning and will continue to be lower than today's readings. Therefore, forecast high temps will be slightly lower for Friday.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
Friday night to Saturday: Low pressure near Lake Superior Friday night will lift northeast through eastern Ontario and into Central Quebec Saturday, pulling warmer air into the area and eventually a cold front as well by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The majority of the event will be rain across the area, although some weak cold air damming across the North s and Saint John Valley may result in a brief wintry mix at the onset of precipitation Saturday morning. Forecast rainfall amounts range from around a half inch across the north to around an inch across Washington County. Temperatures with this system will generally be warmer compared to Wednesday night’s, resulting in a near complete loss of snowpack across all but the far north according to snowmelt models from NOHRSC. The low level jet associated with the system will be slightly weaker and develop further east. The greatest chance of seeing warning level winds is across Coastal Washington County. However, with confidence just below 50 percent, decided to hold off on a watch for this update. At least wind advisories will likely be needed along the coast and some inland areas Saturday afternoon into the evening. Record to near record high temperatures are also possible across parts of the area. See the climate section below for details.
Saturday night to Sunday: A freeze up is expected Saturday night behind the cold front, which could result in icy roads, especially across northern and central portions of the forecast area. The longer duration of winds before temperatures fall below freezing may result in more drying of the roads compared to this past Wednesday night. Showers will dissipate by Sunday morning as high pressure builds south of the area and the surface ridge axis moves overhead. Skies become mostly clear Sunday with near normal temperatures.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
Sunday night to Monday night: High pressure will move off to the east Sunday night with a weak low and cold front clipping the northwest portion of the forecast area with mainly an increase in clouds, although some flurries are possible. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal during this period.
Tuesday to Wednesday: A majority of ensemble members take an area or multiple areas of low pressure northwest of the area Tuesday into Wednesday, which would produce another period of rain for the area. However, there are still a minority of ensemble members with a low further south that would lead to more snow across the north. Opted to go with the solution with more ensemble support for now with mainly rain and above normal temperatures, except some brief mixing across the far north.
Thursday: Uncertainty increases even further as the North Atlantic Oscillation becomes strongly negative, leading to upstream blocking development. Temperatures will revert to near to below normal as Canadian high pressure builds towards the area.
Near Term: Have dropped the gale warning with this update and have issued a small craft advisory on the coastal waters until 12Z Fri, and until 08Z on the intra-coastal. A few gusts to 35 knots will be possible until around midnight on the coastal waters, but the wind will be trending down the remainder of the night. Seas still around 8 to 9 ft on the coastal waters, and it will take most of the night for the seas to subside back to around 5 ft by daybreak. No advisories are expected past early Friday morning.
Short Term: Winds and seas increase to advisory levels Friday night, then ramp up to a strong gale on Saturday. A few gusts to storm force are possible, especially over the eastern waters. Visibility will be reduced in moderate rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Preferred WNAwave during the period of most persistent southerly fetch Saturday to Saturday evening to show the likelihood of higher wave heigheights compared to the NBM. Winds and seas fall to advisory levels Sunday morning, then fall below advisory levels Sunday night through Monday night.
Record high temperatures are possible on Saturday. See below for the forecast highs with records and year set in parentheses at local climate sites. Caribou: 49 (52, 1949) Houlton: 53 (47, 2012) Millinocket: 54 (52, 2009) Bangor: 56 (63, 2009)
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Friday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EST Friday for ANZ052.