Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog Early This Evening. Areas Of Fog Late This Evening And Overnight. A Slight Chance Of Rain Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain Late This Evening. Rain After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less Late This Evening And Overnight.
|Wed...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Increasing To 30 To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
|Wed Night...S Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Becoming Sw 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Rain In The Evening, Then Rain With A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
|Thu...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Light Freezing Spray.
|Thu Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Moderate Freezing Spray.
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W Around 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
635pm EST Tuesday Feb 27 2024
A warm front approaches from the southwest tonight then lifts to the north Wednesday. A strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night. High pressure builds across the region later Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will remain south of the region Saturday into Sunday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
620pmLow level moisture is racing northward with the surge in dew points into the upper 30s this evening...and into the 40s Wednesday. This means rapidly increasing low clouds and fog as shown on nighttime visual satellite imagery. The strong warm advection and low cloud cover will result in very little temperature drop this evening and rising temps after midnight. Will be monitoring the development of fog this evening and may have to increase fog coverage and intensity.
Previous discussion... Warm advection across the area has allowed temps to soar into record territory. Fog bank that was rolling in from the Gulf has transitioned into a stratus deck and is slowly eroding on the north end as it hits dry blyr. Skies should very slowly cloud up from south to north this evening with fog developing first along the coast and spreading north after 00z tonight.
Surface low sitting up over the UP of Michigan this afternoon with warm front extending just to the east of James Bay with strong LLJ kicking in in advance of low pressure. LLJ will continue to increase overnight with perhaps a small drop-off in temps late this evening before rising again. Low temps for Wednesday look to be right around midnight tonight with 925-850mb winds increasing to between 40-50kts acrs the west and 55-70kts over eastern zones. Southerly winds will be on the increase during the overnight with gusts approaching 25-35mph by daybreak with perhaps 40mph along the higher terrain of the coast. Significant inversion setting up due to warm advection aloft will keep strong winds from mixing down tonight.
Rain moves from south to north in overrunning setup tonight. Light rain sets up on the coast by 02z and becomes widespread by 06z. Elevated instability looks to be present over southeastern Maine and may be able to generate a lightning strike or two and have added in isolated thunder to the Washington County coast late tonight. This will likely exacerbate heavy rain with PW values (Precipitable Water values) approaching one inch.
Temps will rise after midnight with all locations in the 40s by 12z tomorrow. Core of the LLJ will be focused from about the Bangor Region up toward Houlton and this will likely be the main axis of heavy rain tomorrow. In addition to the rain, winds will also pick up by afternoon, thus a high wind warning has been issued for the coast with gusts to 60 mph expected and a wind advisory has been issued for interior Downeast including the Bangor Region. Temps may approach 50 degrees over the area tomorrow, flirting with records again.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
A High Wind Warning is in effect along the Downeast coast...with a Wind Advisory across interior Downeast areas...Wednesday night. A Flood Watch is in effect across central areas Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. A strong cold front will cross the region later Wednesday evening through the early morning hours of Thursday. A strong southerly low level jet will cross the region in advance of the front. Wind gusts of up to around 60 mph are expected along the Downeast coast, up to around 50 mph across interior Downeast areas. Gusts of 40 to 45 mph are possible across the remainder of the region. Strong wind gusts will also occur in the vicinity of the cold front when the inversion is broken. Rain will persist in advance of the front. Colder air will then rapidly return in the wake of the front allowing a transition back to snow or snow showers. Generally expect around 1 inch up to 2 inches of snow accumulation following the transition to snow. An upper trough crosses the region Thursday. Across northern areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers early Thursday, with a partly sunny afternoon. Across Downeast areas, expect a partly/mostly cloudy morning with a slight chance of snow showers then a partly sunny afternoon. High pressure builds toward the region Thursday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies north, mostly clear Downeast. High pressure crosses the region Friday with generally partly sunny skies. High temperatures will occur early Thursday in advance of the cold front, then fall through the remainder of Thursday. Will also have gusty west winds Thursday. Temperatures return to near normal levels Friday.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
A warm front should cross the region Friday night with partly cloudy skies. Generally expect partly cloudy skies Saturday in advance of a cold front which could begin to cross the region late. Current indications are that low pressure will remain south of the region Sunday/Monday. However, uncertainty still exists regarding the northern extent of the precipitation shield which could possibly reach at least Downeast areas. Based on expected temperatures, precipitation will be in the form of mostly rain or rain showers. Indications are that the low could drift north toward the Gulf of Maine Tuesday, though uncertainty with precipitation amounts still exists. Based on expected temperatures, precipitation should remain in the form of rain or rain showers Tuesday. Much above normal level temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday.
Near Term: Winds and seas increase overnight with seas climbing to near 10ft Wednesday morning and toward 18ft over the outer waters Wednesday afternoon/evening. Southerly winds increase above gale force late tonight and approach storm force in the afternoon. Fog will reduce visibilities over the water tonight into the morning.
Short Term: A Storm Warning is in effect for all the waters Wednesday night. Gale conditions are then expected Thursday through Thursday night, with small craft advisory conditions Friday. Rain early Wednesday night, transitioning to snow late. A chance of snow showers early Thursday. Light freezing spray Thursday. A Freezing Spray Advisory for moderate freezing spray could be needed Thursday night. Light freezing spray early Friday.
A Flood Watch has been issued from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon for the west-central highlands and central portions of the region. An extended warm spell is expected to impact the area through early Thursday morning until cold front passage. 24-30 hours of temperatures + dew points above freezing are expected tonight through late Wednesday night. Temperature + Dew Point thawing degree hours into Wednesday increase to around 700-1000 across the north and into the Central Highlands and interior Downeast. Thawing degree hours greater than 700 are an indication of potential ice movement expected with >1000 indicating ice movement likely. In addition, rainfall is expected to fall on top of the snow pack. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch across the north with 1-2+ inches across the Central Highlands, with 1.50 to 2.50 inches Downeast. Latest snow water equivalent analysis from NOHRSC indicates SWEs generally 1-3 inches across interior Downeast and Central Highlands with 2-5 inches across the North. Along the Downeast coast SWEs are a trace or zero thanks to bare grounds.
Latest snow pack density analysis indicates density around 22-32% which will increase with warm weather. Typically greater than 33% indicates a "ripe" snow pack which is expected in most areas before the rain tomorrow. In addition to the rain, strong gusty warm winds will aid in the rapid melting of the snow pack. Significant snow pack loss is expected across the entire area through Thursday AM. Many locations from the Moosehead Region, Baxter Region to Houlton southward will see complete snow pack loss. The ground frost is generally 9-15 inches across much of the CWA (County Warning Area) so any melt will be running off with the deep frozen grounds.
Snowpack melt + rainfall may cause significant ice decay and rot in the rivers potentially resulting in ice movement especially in the Piscataquis, Penobscot, Mattawamkeag and Aroostook basins. River ice thickness is generally 8-15 inches across the area which is significantly less compared to typical years thanks to the above normal temperatures this winter. This could result in ice movement earlier than typical years. Those living along rivers prone to ice jam flooding should continue to monitor the forecast.
Lastly, along the Downeast coast inland to the southern Central Highlands rain will fall on frozen ground. In the absence of snow this will likely result in significant rises of smaller creeks and streams which could cause potential flooding. In addition with frozen grounds expect possible urban poor drainage flooding issues in the Greater Bangor area. Typical with these setups there may be embedded convective elements which could result in isolated flash flooding given the frozen grounds which has been noted by WPC in their latest D2 ERO placing all of Maine in "Marginal Risk" for excessive rainfall.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
High tides Wednesday and Wednesday night will be less than the monthly highest with Bar Harbor high tides around 10.5 ft. That said, the timing of the high tide Wednesday night is around 1:19 AM, and the front (which will shift onshore winds to out of the west, lessening any coastal impacts) is expected to cross the coast sometime between midnight and 3 AM. So there is a chance that the front will not completely clear the coast prior to high tide, such that high tide coincides with onshore winds gusting 50 to 60 mph and seas 8 to 11 ft. All of these factors together could result in storm surge up to around 1 to 1.5 ft, and this surge is most likely to occur over low-lying areas along coastal Washington county, where the front will be last to pass through.
Flooding impacts to the coast will be highly dependent on the timing of the front, and a shift by an hour or two could lead to little to no coastal flood threat, or a widening of the impact area to include the entire Downeast coast in our forecast area.
Record or near record max minimum temperature are possible Wednesday, February 28.
Caribou: 35 set in 2000. Forecast low is 37. Bangor: 36 set in 2000. Forecast low is 40. Millinocket: 40 set in 1903. Forecast low is 39. Houlton: 35 degrees set in 2000. Forecast low is 40.
Record or near record high temperatures are possible on Wednesday. Here are the records for Wednesday, February 28.
Caribou: 45 set in 2000. Forecast high is 48. Bangor: 51 set in 2017. Forecast high is 50. Millinocket: 55 set in 1903. Forecast high is 49. Houlton: 49 degrees set in 2000. Forecast high is 50.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for MEZ004>006-010-011-031-032. Wind Advisory from 1pm Wednesday to 4am EST Thursday for MEZ015>017. High Wind Warning from 1pm Wednesday to 4am EST Thursday for MEZ029-030.
Storm Warning from 1pm Wednesday to 4am EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.