Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain, Snow And Freezing Rain In The Evening, Then Rain, Snow And Freezing Rain Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less After Midnight.|
|Thu...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1240pm EST Monday Feb 24 2020
High pressure will remain south of the area today as low pressure tracks well to our northwest. A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build north of the region Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Tuesday night through Wednesday then cross the area on Thursday. Low pressure will continue northeast of the area Friday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
1230 PMFreezing fog has dissipated. Adjusted highs upward for today with some 50F readings. The cold front won't arrive in time to affect highs. Don't expect another sharp inversion to generate another round of freezing fog tonight behind the cold front. However, there will be some colder pockets in the teens...or potentially even lower in northern zones as Canadian high pressure noses in later tonight. Nonetheless, there's not much cold air behind the cold front and above average hi temps continue Tuesday. Did make minor adjustments downward for the highs.
Previous discussion... High pressure to our south combined with low pressure tracking well to our north will continue to pull relatively warm air across the area today. A strong low level inversion with colder air near the surface and abrupartly warmer air aloft may result in some patchy freezing fog early this morning. Otherwise today will become partly to mostly sunny across the north and mostly sunny Downeast with highs in the 40s throughout the area. A weak cold front will trail the low to our north tonight pushing into our area as part of a large high over central Canada begins to press in from the northwest. Clouds will also begin to increase ahead of low pressure sliding into the Midwest. Tuesday will be just a little cooler than today but still well above normal in temperatures with a partly cloudy sky north and mostly cloudy sky Downeast as some moisture continues to stream in from the low in the Ohio Valley. The low in the Midwest will essentially remain stationary Tuesday night as it waits for longwave jet energy to catch up with it. A frontal boundary extending east from the low will support a corridor of some moisture that will keep Downeast mostly cloudy Tuesday night with a partly cloudy sky over the north.
Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday
Significant storm to affect the region later Wednesday night into Thursday.
Large high pressure will ease down across the region on Wednesday w/a light NNE wind. Primary low pressure is forecast to lift across PA and then into Ontario later in the day on Wednesday w/a secondary low developing near the Delmarva. The secondary low is then expected to lift ne across southern New England Wednesday night. Dry air initially in place will keep precipitation at bay. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continued its trend of showing some light overrunning precip, in the form of snow, setting up across the swarning areas early Wednesday and then diminishing during the day as the dry air hangs in longer. The 00z GFS is similar w/the dry air holding in longer. Sounding data shows the moisture increasing through the column during the day w/precipitation moving into the central and downeast areas by late afternoon/early evening. Temps will be colder than Tuesday by at least 5 degrees. Evaporative cooling will allow temps to fall back by the evening w/precipitation intially starting out as some snow across the aforementioned areas. The secondary low pressure system will become the primary system as it lifts into Maine Wednesday night. Precip will overspread northern areas by early Thursday morning and will be in the form of snow. Warmer air aloft will push into the Downeast overnight w/blyr temps at or below 32F. This will lead to snow transitioning to a period of sleet and freezing rain. Further n, the precipitation will stay in the form of snow into Thursday morning.
The low lifts into southern Maine Thursday morning. The model guidance is pretty consistent w/this placement but begin to diverge during the day on Thursday. The track of the low is crucial for the placement of the warm air and precipitation types as well as amounts. The OOZ GFS continues to be further n w/bringing the center of the low near Houlton. This track would allow for a transition to a mix as far as Presque Isle, while the ECMWF shows the low tracking across Downeast Maine keeping the warmer air further s, and shows the transition to a wintry mix as far n as Houlton. The 00Z UKMET shifted further s from its 12Z run similar to the ECMWF, while the Canadian Global keeps the secondary low along the coast which would favor a colder solution. Using a blended approache attm yields to a track of the low moving across interior Downeast Maine. This track would allow the warmer air to make it as far n as Haynesville to Medway where snow would transition to sleet/freezing rain and then possibly briefly to rain by early afternoon. Further to the n, all snow. The next challenge is Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts. The GFS continues to the heaviest w/up to an inch of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast as it shows a 50+ kt jet from 925-850 mbs streaming across the region from the ESE, bringing in a deep transport of moisture. The ECMWF has been consistent w/less Quantitative Precipitation Forecast of 0.50 to 0.75", but it too shows the strong jet. There looks like there will be an upper level front lifting across the region, which would enhance the potential for banded precip. The system does move through quickly w/all the guidance showing a dry slot lifting up across the region Thursday afternoon shutting off the steadier precipitation. Given the potential for an upper level front and the strong ESE jet, thinking is that the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast could be closer to the GFS despite the quick movement. Would not be surprised if northern areas see a swath of 7 or more inches of snow. Still some time to assess things w/the later model runs.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
Dry slot lifts quickly northward Thursday evening w/rain to the s shutting off. Colder air working back into the region could allow for brief period of snow before ending. The snow across the northern areas will wind down after midnight as the dry slot lifts up to the Maine-Canadian border. Temps will cool down into the upper teens and 20s.
Unsettled conditions on Friday right into Saturday with scattered snow showers, mainly across the n and w. It will be colder w/temps back to near seasonal norms.
Could be an interesting situation setting for later Saturday night into Sunday as the ECMWF shows low pressure lifting across eastern Nova Scotia. This could bring some snow to parts of the region, especially the eastern sections including Aroostook County. There are number of its individual ensemble members which support this track. The GFS is further s and keeps the precipitation shield offshore. Attm stayed w/a dry forecast for Sunday and continued w/seasonal temps.
Near Term: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) today through Tuesday night.
Short Term: SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected by later Wednesday w/seas building to 5 ft by late in the day and NE winds of 15-20 kts and gusts at 25 kts.
Wednesday night into Thursday...E Winds will continue to increase w/sustained speeds of 25-30 and gusts AOA 35 kts. Gales look possible later Wednesday night into early Thursday. Seas will continue to build to 9-11 ft by Thursday morning w/a combined swell.
Thursday night into Friday... E winds are forecast to swing around to the W and diminish by Friday as low pressure pulls away from the region. Seas will start to subside as the winds go offshore, but will remain above 6 ft w/the influence of a swell.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories