Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Light And Variable Winds, Becoming W Around 5 Kt Early, Then Becoming Sw. Seas 1 To 2 Ft Early This Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 1 Foot, Then 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight.|
|Tue...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Rain, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
902am EDT Sunday September 23 2018
Synopsis: A cold front will cross the region today. Cool Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front tonight and Monday then move east Tuesday. Low pressure from the Great Lakes will approach on Wednesday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
9 am update...Increased clouds with the front, lowered highs in northern Aroostook, slowed progression of the front today into this evening, and reviewed tonight's frost/freeze situation. Will issue frost/freeze headlines with the afternoon package. Of the zones still active in this fall's frost/freeze program, northern Penobscot looks most vulnerable to a freeze. On the other hand, winds and clouds will slow cooling towards the coast such that coastal Hancock and Washington probably won't require any frost headlines. In between, have mentioned patchy frost or areas of front for later tonight. The coldest temperatures tonight will be in the Allagash where 20F is possible.
Previous discussion... A cold front approaching from southern Quebec province will cross northern areas through mid morning and move off the downeast coast early tonight. This front marks the leading edge of a cooler air mass. H850 temperatures will fall to around -5C by daybreak Monday across the far north and to around 0C at the downeast coast. At the same time, H925 temperatures fall to around -2C across the north and around +2C at the coast. Moisture is limited with the front but there is the chance of a shower, mainly across the far north later this morning and continuing into early afternoon. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts will only be a couple hundreths on an inch at best. Highs today will range from the low to mid 50s north and low to mid 60s downeast.
Skies will become mainly clear across the north this evening and then late tonight across downeast, as a large Canadian high pressure system builds toward the region from Quebec. Expect a widespread hard freeze across the north as lows will fall into the low to mid 20s. With the frost/freeze program having ended there, no headlines will be included for tonight, but we will mention widespread frost in forecast products. Across interior downeast areas, expect areas of frost late tonight, with lows expected to fall into the low to mid 30s. Along the coast, lows will range from the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost expected. The one mitigating factor for frost downeast tonight may be that the high will still be centered well to our northwest by early Monday morning. This may keep enough of a gradient across that region for winds to completely decouple. With current frost advisory headlines up through early this morning, will not issue any frost/freeze products for tonight quite yet, and re-evaluate the need with subsequent forecast updates later today.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Can hi pressure will linger over the FA Monday thru Monday night providing fair weather along with one more cool day and night and more frost potential by late Monday ngt. Low temps by erly Tuesday morn, however, do not look quite as as low as Monday morn due to warmer temps at the subsidence invsn level and the possibility of sct-bkn hi cldnss.
Otherwise, Tuesday will begin fair, with increasing cldnss by aftn with hi temps recovering to near 60 deg F. Warm advcn shwrs/rn will then advc into the FA from the WSW late in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night with much breezy Srly winds and milder ovrngt lows.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Intermittent shwrs/rn will cont Wednesday into Wednesday eve as the main low from the great lks tracks NE across the St Lawrence vly of QB prov, bringing a cold front across the FA late Wednesday night and erly Thu morn. With PWs reaching or just exceeding 1.50 inches, we cannot rule out lcly hvy rainfall and even isolated tstms prior to the cold front wed aftn/eve, but these elements are a little early to assign to the forecast attm. Total rainfall from this event will generally range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch with locally hvy rnfl. Max Probability of Precipitation with this event are currently being shown to be arnd 90 percent.
Fair and drier conditions follow for Thu and Thu night with near seasonable temps. Cldnss increases again for Fri as another cold front and associated s/wv alf approaches from the midwest. The next chance of showers with this system will be late Fri into Sat morn, with longer range models showing scenarios ranging from a quick band of showers crossing the Region along a cold front, to more organized rainfall associated with a wv of low pressure forming along the front. Given uncertainties, we capped max Probability of Precipitation t the hi chc category for now.
Near Term: Winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels today and then increase to Small Craft Advisory levels in the wake of a cold front. Therefore, an Small Craft Advisory has been issued beginning late tonight and continuing into early monday morning.
Short To Long Term: Marginal Small Craft Advisory winds and seas may linger into the mid morn Mon, then subside below Small Craft Advisory thresholds late Monday morn with no hdlns continuing Monday night and Tue. Winds and seas then build back to Small Craft Advisory conditions with a Srly wind fetch Tuesday night and cont so Wednesday thru Wednesday ngt. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv heights with short wv pds of 4 to 7 sec dominating thru these ptns of the forecast.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.