Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Today...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain Late This Morning. Rain Likely Early This Afternoon, Then Scattered Showers Late. Vsby Around 1 Nm.|
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Scattered Showers In The Evening.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Likely With A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
604am EST Fri Nov 22 2019
Low pressure will track north of the region today drawing a cold front across the area. High pressure will cross the region Saturday. Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine Sunday then exit across the Maritimes Monday. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
6 am A band of mixed precipitation was crossing the forecast area early this morning. Receiving reports of light freezing rain and some slick roads across portions of the central highlands and interior Downeast Maine. Across far northern Maine, precipitation is falling a mix of light snow and freezing rain. Will maintain current Winter Weather Advisories through 10am EST. Expect temperatures to warm above freezing later this morning in most areas.
previous discussion Low pressure currently across western Quebec Province will track north of the state this afternoon. Latest radar reflectivity imagery was showing some light precipitation crossing the region early this morning in association with a lead short wave ahead of an approaching upper trough. With surface temperatures currently in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees early this morning, the precipitation is expected to be mainly in the form of some light freezing rain, or a light wintry mix across the far north, through early this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 10 o'clock this morning for portions of far Northern Maine and the Central Maine Highlands. Have also issued an SPS for the upper Penobscot Valley and Downeast Maine early this morning mentioning the potential for some patchy freezing rain through early this morning.
Increasing Southerly flow in advance of the approaching cold front will allow surface temperatures to rise above freezing in most areas later this morning into early this afternoon, resulting in any freezing rain or mixed precipitation changing to all rain by midday.
As the cold front begins to cross the region from west to east this afternoon, colder air aloft will allow rain to mix with snow from west to east by late afternoon. With most of the precipitation expected to be along or ahead of the cold front, not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation this afternoon, however there may be some light accumulation across the far northwest late afternoon.
The cold front will move east of the region tonight with a northwest flow of colder air expected. There may be a few lingering snow showers across northern portions of the region through early this evening, otherwise partial clearing is expected overnight. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid teens to lower 20s north and lower to mid 20s central and Downeast areas, which is near normal for this time of year.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
The upper trough will exit the region Saturday morning w/some snow showers around, mainly across the northern border. It will be a windy day w/sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Some streamer activity could set up across the northern areas through early afternoon w/a NW flow and cold air coming off the open St. Lawrence. The caveat is the lacking of deep moisture through 850mbs as noted by the NAM and GFS. The NBM does show the increasing clouds across the n and w, but keep snow chances at a minimum. Another item is that winds will be shifting to the W w/speeds diminishing shutting down the fetch. Given these two factors, decided to go w/drier forecast for the afternoon w/temps slightly below normal. High pressure will quickly ridge across the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and then passes to the east by Sunday morning. Some warm air advection is forecast to setup and w/skies starting out mostly clear, a llvl inversion looks to be in place. Temps are expected to drop sharply before leveling off as clouds move in later at night. Temps of low to mid teens are forecast for the northern 1/2 of the CWA, while central and downeast areas seeing low/mid 20s. Some sites across the north and west could see some lower readings w/the inversion in place.
Sunday looks interesting to say the least. A low pressure system will be moving out of the TN Valley and move to the Mid Atlc region by Sunday morning. The low is then shown by the long range guidance to light to the ne to the Gulf of Maine by Sunday night. Discrepancies still exist among the guidance as the 00Z NAM and Canadian guidance show the low intensifying and lifting across Nova Scotia. This track would bring snow to the northern areas w/a mixed bag of precipitation for the Downeast including the coast. The 00Z GFS and its Ensemble Mean are further s, bringing a glancing blow to the Downeast region. The 00Z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and a number of its ensembles show a track across Nova Scotia, which would bring measurable snowfall to the region, including the Downeast. The nw areas could be shut out w/this track. Interestingly enough, some of the GFS individual members show a track across Nova Scotia similar to the ECMWF. Attm, decided on a blend and leaned w/the higher precipitation chances across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Given the temps profiles that could setup, the mixed precipitation could be in the form of sleet and possibly freezing rain. Since there is still some discrepancy in the guidance, confidence was not high enough to include the mention of sleet/freezing rain. The decision was to go w/snow across the northern areas and snow/rain for the Downeast region. There is still some time to assess this situation.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
The low is forecast to lift quickly across the Maritimes on Monday w/any snow ending by mid morning. High pressure is expected to build in Monday afternoon into Tuesday w/temps near or slightly below normal. The long range guidance does show an upper level disturbance moving across the w and nw. Attm, it looks like some clouds and that is about it.
Clouds look like they will advance quickly Tuesday night ahead of an apchg low pressure system forecast to move in from the Great Lakes region. This system was some warm air w/it and precipitation for Wednesday looks to be in the form of rain. Temps on Wednesday are expected to around 40 across the northern areas w/mid to upper 40s central and downeast areas. The warm air looks like it is short lived as colder air wraps in behind the departing low, as rain goes to snow Wednesday night. The GFS shows this solution w/snow showers and windy on Thanksgiving Day. The ECMWF however shows the low rapidly intensifying as it moves across the Bay of Fundy and showing snow and windy conditions on Thanksgiving Day. Given this a week out, decided to lean w/40% chances for snow lining up well w/GYX.
Near Term: A Gale Warning remains in effect beginning late this afternoon. Expect winds to increase this afternoon ahead of and in the wake of the cold front later this afternoon. Winds are expected to continue to increase to 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 35 kt possible tonight. Seas will build to 6 to 9 ft across the outerwaters by tonight.
Short Term: Gales will continue through Saturday afternoon w/gusts of 35-40 kt. Seas will be up around 7-8 ft. The winds and seas will be dropping off Saturday night as high pres quickly ridges across the region.
Sunday into Sunday night...Light SSW winds are forecast to back to the E and increase on Sunday as low pressure passes through the southern portion of the Gulf of Maine. Winds could gust to 30 kt w/seas hitting 6-8 ft by Sunday night. High tide Sunday night is 11.7 ft and 12.7 ft Monday morning. There is some concern if the storm strengthens more and slows up, then some overwash is possible. Attm, it looks like the winds turning to the NE will keep the highest waves away off the coast. This will need to be monitored w/the later runs.
Monday into Tuesday...The storm is forecast to pass quickly through the Maritimes Monday morning w/gusty N winds 25 kt. Seas look like could hold at 6-7 ft. Conditions improve Monday night into Tuesday w/winds and seas dropping off.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
Gale Warning from 3pm this afternoon to 1pm EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.