Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Or Snow Or Sleet Until Mid Afternoon, Then Rain Or Snow Likely Late. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Scattered Snow Showers In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain And Snow In The Evening, Then Rain And Snow Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely With A Chance Of Snow In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1000am EST Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine today and move across Nova Scotia tonight. A cold front will cross Saturday night and bring more Arctic air for Sunday and early next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
945am Update: Probability of Precipitation was adjusted across the FA thru this eve to reflect near term forecast Quantitative Precipitation Forecast/snfl. Otherwise, just minor chgs to forecast 6hourly Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and snfl into the ovrngt. Lastly, forecast hrly temps/dewpoints into this afternoon were updated based on latest mid morn surface obs with no sig changes to forecast afternoon hi temps.
Orgnl Disc: Coastal low is just off of the NJ coast as of 09z with greatest pressure falls over Cape Cod. Storm will track northeast tda spreading snow into the region. Snow has already started in BHB and is gradually spreading north. Complicated forecast on tap for tda as main banding is occurring over northern NY attm while lighter pcpn is currently mvg thru southern New England in dry slot.
Expect that this dry slot will mv into coastal areas btwn 12z and 16z this mrng. As the coastal progresses ewrd this afternoon, Atlantic moisture wraps back into coastal areas with pcpn transitioning back to snow and sleet.
Further to the north pcpn will rmn all snow, perhaps with snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour in the afternoon as fgen forcing translates east. As a result, hv added in the Lincoln to Houlton areas to the existing winter storm warning with 6-8 inches falling tda. Banding may impact a slim area outside of this line but not widespread enuf to expand WSW further to the north. Either way, it will likely be a close call for the Baxter State Park area toward Caribou and Presque Isle but confidence is not high enuf to convert advisories over to warnings
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
Saturday continues to look like the mildest day until the end of next week. Temperatures will be in the lower 30s north to just over 40F for Bangor and the coast. There will be some moisture up to H8 and some steep low-level lapse rates by Saturday afternoon...creating the threat of some snow showers. However, not expecting widespread coverage or much in the way of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Highest confidence will be in the western mts where slight chc probability of precipitation are assigned. Snow showers remain a possibility with a cold front crossing in the evening and in the cold air advection behind the front. Sunday will be nearly 10F colder, but building hi pressure and subsidence will reduce cloud cover in comparison to Saturday. Temperatures plummet initially Sunday night, but clouds increase later in the night with an approaching shortwave moving northward in the southern stream. Some light snow could break out towards Bangor and the Down East region later in the night. Further north in the Saint John Valley, lows will drop into the single digits
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
At this point, it looks like weak cyclogenesis could occur towards Washington County Monday morning as the southern stream system starts to phase with a northern stream shortwave and associated Arctic front. The system is moving too fast away from Maine to do much damage and confidence remains low, but some 2 to 3 inches of snow is possible as a worst case scenario in the southeastern corner of the forecast area. Arctic air builds behind the front Monday night and will likely be locked in place until the end of the week with abnormally cold temperatures and no major weather systems. Guidance hints at moisture-deprived clipper systems Tuesday and Thursday, but guidance remains very inconsistent...having a difficult time resolving shortwaves moving out of northern Canada in a fast NW flow. The coldest day looks like Wednesday with highs in the teens to lower 20s. Single digit lows are a strong possibility Monday night through Wednesday night with the chance of the season's first subzero readings.
Near Term: Gale warning continues this afternoon before decreasing to Small Craft Advisory thru the nighttime hrs.
Short Term: Three Small Craft Advisories possible during this period. The first will be ongoing Saturday...ending Saturday evening. The next will be later Monday into Monday night. The last occurs Wednesday
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 2am EST Saturday for MEZ001>004. Winter Storm Warning until 8pm EST this evening for MEZ005- 006-010-011-015-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 8pm EST this evening for MEZ016- 017-029-030.
Gale Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052