Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt Early This Evening, Becoming Light And Variable, Then Becoming Ne Around 5 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft. Areas Of Fog With Patchy Smoke This Evening With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sat...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
317pm EDT Fri September 29 2023
High pressure crosses the region through tonight, then moves east into Sunday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine. A weak boundary approaches from the west on Sunday and crosses Sunday night. High pressure builds in from the west into mid next week.
Near Term - Through Saturday
A large dome of high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates through the period. Smoke and fog are the primary issues through Friday. The smoke is many days removed from fires in western Canada and is now wrapped/trapped in the upper high circulation over the region.
A closed upper low circulation over the Mid-Atlantic states that has produced a lot of rain in southern New England will be suppressed by the upper ridge through tomorrow and will actually be forced southward on Saturday as upper ridging builds over northern Maine. The low will be responsible for cirrus moving through the area tonight, but those clouds will be out of the area by daybreak tomorrow.
The smoke continues to befuddle ceilometers with readings ranging from less than 4K feet to 20K feet. In reality, today's 12Z RAOBS show no clouds at heigheights less than 20K ft and the smoke layer has been mostly in a layer from 3 to 4k feet to around 8K feet as evidenced by PIREPS. However, the smoke will descend for the remainder of the day into tonight and will be most noticeable in higher terrain towards the Katahdin and Moosehead Lake regions tonight into Saturday morning.
For tonight, expect a repeat of the fog cycle. The only mitigating factor will be increasing cirrus in the southern half of the forecast area. Lows will be slightly warmer than the last two nigheights as the air mass slowly modifies. The smoke did not slow down fog formation last night and may have prolonged it today.
The smoke will remain in the area tomorrow although it may thin out in northern zones in the afternoon. HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) projections seem to have been a bit optimistic in reducing smoke concentrations in the past day. Nonetheless, went with high temps a bit higher than the readings that were reduced by the smoke today.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Monday
Low pressure off the southern New England coast drifts slowly east into the open Atlantic during Saturday night. Meanwhile, our area remains under the influence of upper level ridging building eastward from the Great Lakes region. This results in mainly clear weather conditions Saturday night with patchy late night fog once again expected. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 40s.
A weak cold front approaches from the north on Sunday and crosses northern areas during the afternoon and then central and Downeast areas later Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday afternoon will still climb into the low to mid 70s in a few spots under mainly sunny skies.
Fair weather continues Sunday night and Monday with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Lows Sunday night mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Friday
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected heading through the first full week of October. The potential is there for record or near record high temperatures through mid week.
A strong upper level ridge will build across northern New England Monday night through Thursday. This will bring the prospect of dry and unseasonably warm weather to the region Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Afternoon high temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s, which will be near the record highs for the date.
The next chance for any showers will not be until later Friday with the approach of a cold front.
Near Term: Long period southerly swell around 2 to occasionally 3 feet continues. Light and variable winds will become NE tonight into Saturday with gusts reaching 10 to 15 kt. Areas of fog are again possible tonight.
Short Term: Winds/seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through he middle of next week.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories