Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Late.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Through The Day, Then Rain Likely Through The Night. Snow Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1258pm EST Wednesday Dec 2 2020
Yesterday's low pressure system has moved off to the northwest, with the upper level low and surface low stacking over southern Ontario. Cold air associated with this system will begin to filter into the area today, with the front moving through later this evening. High pressure will build south of the region Thursday through Friday. Significant uncertainty still exists regarding low pressure Saturday and Sunday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
12:58pm Update: Adjusted temperatures and skies based on the latest trends. We are a little warmer then expected given the increased sunshine across much of the CWA. We are seeing increasing cloud cover from the west & in eastern areas with a gap from the Midcoast of Maine to Baxter State Park region. Expect this gap to fill in with more clouds over the next several hours. Radar imagery shows showers over Southern Maine breaking out thanks to the trough axis moving closer to the region. We expect precipitation in the form of rain & snow showers to develop across the North this afternoon. Adjusted the timing of the increasing probability of precipitation based on the latest trends in hi-res guidance. Also as the next wave rotates around the base of this trough expecting some rain shower chances to increase along the Downeast coast. Lastly opted to adjust pops, precipitation types, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and resulting snowfall for this evening into the overnight. Guidance is suggesting just a tad more liquid with snow showers tonight so resulting in snowfall from a Dusting to perhaps 1 inch in the North s to St. John Valley. Also added a mention of perhaps a dusting from the Baxter region to Eastern Aroostook county. Other than these changes no additional major changes required with this update.
Previous Discussion: Temperatures will drop throughout the day, becoming more seasonable by this evening. As the colder air approaches this evening, winds will switch to be more west to southwesterly. A cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) of air at 850 hPa supporting this low will cause the winds to be more gusty as they move in. The cold front will bring the chance of precipitation as it moves in. For the Central Highlands and northward, colder upper level temps mean a quick changeover to all snow, but little in the way of accumulation is expected. Downeast will remain all rain with the lingering warm air from the previous front.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
High pressure builds south of the region Thursday/Thursday night. Expect partly cloudy skies north/mostly clear Downeast Thursday, with increasing clouds Thursday night. An upper level disturbance will approach later Friday. Expect mostly cloudy skies north, partly/mostly cloudy Downeast Friday. Could also have a slight chance of snow showers across northwest areas Friday. The disturbance will cross the region Friday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies across the region Friday night. Will also have a slight chance of snow showers north, with a slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast. Temperatures will be at slightly above normal levels Thursday/Friday.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Strong low pressure is expected to affect the region Saturday/Sunday. However, significant uncertainty still exists regarding the timing and track of the low. A track across, or to the west, of the region would support a mostly rain event with gusty winds. Low pressure tracking south of the region could bring a rain/snow mix to Downeast areas with snow across the north. However, precipitation amounts would be dependent on the eventual track. The system should exit Monday. Could still have a slight chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Monday, with a slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast. High pressure should then build toward the region Tuesday with generally partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Saturday/Sunday will be dependent on the eventual track of the low. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday.
Near Term: Seas will remain high through tomorrow morning. Winds will also maintain Small Craft level, with gustier winds expected to pick up in the late afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches.
Short Term: Small craft advisory conditions expected Thursday through Friday night. Could have a slight chance of rain showers Friday night.
NOAA Caribou ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.