Lake Borgne Marine Forecast
|Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Thunderstorms This Morning. Showers. Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1144pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022
/issued 809pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022/
.Difficult evening forecast as multiple features coming together to both temper the heavy rain potential or make it more concerning overnight. Moisture is not an issue as PWs have now climbed to 1.77" and there is still instability to work with. So first the little tropical system east of the MS Delta. This is the main spinning feature out there right now (but not the only one and that is the concern). It only has a 10% chance of developing but regardless of that, impacts will be the same as it will bring the threat of heavy rain and gusty winds. This feature was slightly hinted at over the last 24 hrs but it was farther west and not quite as impressive looking. The other issue for development is it should be inland overnight tonight. Typically on the west side of systems you would anticipate a drier forecast and if you have watched radar most of the day that wouldn't have changed your thinking as the FL Panhandle got hammered with multiple bands of storms. But the difference is this system is only part of a bigger messy feature across the region. A weak cold front continues to slide into the area but is expected to stall. A line of convection has already formed over the western portions of our CWA. The problem is it looks like this line may be starting to stall. Weak surface pressure falls over SELA have been noticed and there is even a little bit of a spin/convergence seen on radar. This is likely part of that inverted trough that was anticipated to develop overnight and this could be an area where convection could become focused for about a 6 hr time frame and lead to locally heavy rain and this could occur around the BR metro along with portions of southwestern MS over the next 3-6 hrs. We have already seen the efficiency of the rain as radar estimated over 2-2.5 inches in less than an hour over portions of St Tammany parish late this afternoon. If storms stall over an area with poor drainage then flash flooding could become a concern. Mesoanalysis shows some weak divergence aloft as well. On the other end CAMS shows convection really tapering off quickly after 5/6z and not completely sure why. 12 hours later this seems more likely as s/w ridging now appears to possibly move in overhead between today and Tuesdays systems. With that we have updated the forecast still showing categorical Probability of Precipitation in the northwestern half of the CWA and increased the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast field a little over there. /CAB/
/issued 404pm CDT Sunday May 22 2022/
Short Term - Tonight Through Tuesday Night
It wouldn't be late Spring in Louisiana without a reminder that Hurricane Season is right around the corner. An area of low pressure located of across the Northern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are expected to move to the north and east through the late afternoon and evening. NHC has given this low pressure area a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, with the environment not conducive to development at this time. Regardless, this low pressure system still has plenty of Gulf moisture to work with and rainfall will be a concern. The better chances of widespread and potentially heavy rainfall will be over Coastal Mississippi and possible the far southeastern portions of Coastal LA over the next day or so.
Meanwhile, there is still the matter of a cold frontal boundary hung up just to the north and west of our area. Convection has been generally disorganized with sporadic showers and storms developing through the day. However, CAMS and other short term guidance have indicated that convection will become more widespread late this afternoon and into the the overnight hours as a short wave disturbance aloft moves across it tonight.
The front will drift into the area overnight and settle in a more west/east orientation before generally washing out into a weak boundary. However, the proximity to the Gulf Low as well as several upper level perturbations will keep the unsettled weather in the forecast through much of the week. Chances for showers and storms will continue through at least Monday into Tuesday before the Gulf surface low moves off to the northeast. High pressure will become the dominate feature off the east coast of FL as a storm system gains strength over central Texas.
This will bring a long S to SE fetch from the Gulf with issues for coastal flooding potentially. Also deep southerly flow will drive the remnants of the boundary north as a warm front with storms possible in the afternoon as the Texas low moves through the ArkLaTex region.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)... At least another day or two of unsettled weather will continue through the extended forecast period. With the warm front situated to across North-central LA, a stronger storm system across the Central Plains will push eastward, driving a cold front back towards the CWA. Wednesday will have the potential for widespread storms some of which could be severe on Wednesday. In fact, Storm Prediction Center has at least part of the northern portions of the CWA in a Day 4 outlook.
Showers and storms would continue into Weds night and Thursday before the front clears the areas and into the Gulf. Dry and hot weather will return in time for the holiday weekend as high pressure builds across the region.
AVIATION... Complicated TAF package as afternoon instability is progressing. A frontal boundary is slowly moving into the area as a easterly wave sits over the Northeastern Gulf Coast. Besides convection this afternoon, these two feature will bring more widespread TSRA to terminals tonight and possibly overnight especially over the MS coast. MVRF to hints of IFR cigs will be possible tonight given the ample moisture in the region. Conditions should improve on Monday as the weather features move east. (JL/69)
Unsettled weather will continue across the Lakes and marine areas as a cold front stall across SE LA. Meanwhile,a low pressure system remains over the Northern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast through at least late Weds or early Thursday. Wave heigheights should improve tonight although swells from thunderstorms could still propagate through the waters. A long S to SE fetch will develop as high pressure sits off the east coast of FL and low pressure forms over Central TX on Tuesday. Moderate seas of 3 to 5 feet will be common in the outer waters. A stronger cold front will moves through the coastal waters on Wednesday night into Thursday with widespread storms. High pressure will return with improved marine conditions for the holiday weekend.
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.