Lake Borgne Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast This Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Morning. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southwest Around 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming North After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 625am CDT Sunday July 13 2025 Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1203am CDT Sunday July 13 2025 As for the extended portion of the forecast it looks like it will be the story of two tales. We will begin rather warm with maybe somewhat limited convection however for the back half of the work week and possibly into the weekend we are looking at what may be multiple days of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain a possibility. Medium range models are in fairly good agreement through Friday and then the models begin to diverge on how they handle to mid level pattern. We begin with Tuesday and the ridge likely at its strongest point in our forecast. It will be centered off to our northeast but it will nose into the west-central Gulf. Mid level hgheights will likely be at their highest that day and h5 temps could finally warm above -6C. This isn't necessarily going to shut convection down but it will be far more limited away from coastal areas. Afternoon highs will likely be the hottest this day and with that it will also be the best chance of reaching heat advisory criteria across a much larger section of the CWA. Wednesday through the rest of the week and into the weekend the forecast will be dominated by an easterly wave. NHC currently has a 20% chance of this developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 7 days but honestly whether it develops or not this wave will bring a surge of moisture and with it numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. We will begin to see a weak trough develop over the northeastern Gulf and FL late Monday and into Tuesday. As this moves east it may try to slowly organize and take on Tropical characteristics Wednesday through Friday. With it we will see a surge of moisture begin to move in Wednesday with PWs well over 2" moving in from the ESE and then slowly across the area over the next 24 to 36 hours. This should easily lead to numerous to widespread convection Wednesday afternoon/evening and again on Thursday. Friday and into the weekend showers and thunderstorms will be likely but what happens to the system is a bigger unknown. The system could become trapped and linger over the area through the weekend and if that is the case it could lead to multiple days of heavy rainfall. We will need to keep an eye on the rain potential heading into the back half of the work week and next weekend. /CAB/ Marine Issued at 1203am CDT Sunday July 13 2025 Overall not much to say on the marine side. High pressure dominates the Gulf right now and light winds will continue with the typical diurnal fluctuations near the coast and the nocturnal jet east of the MS delta. Heading into the middle and back half of the work week may be a little different. We will likely see a weak trough maybe even a surface low move west across the northern Gulf however at this time it will be very week and winds will remain on the light side. Biggest concern remains convection as showers and thunderstorms should continue to be a concern during the overnight and morning hours. /CAB/ NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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