Lake Borgne Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Diminishing To Around 5 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet This Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...North Winds Around 5 Knots, Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet In The Afternoon. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 529am CST Monday Dec 2 2024 Long Term (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300am CST Monday Dec 2 2024 The shortwave over northern California this morning will eventually close off over Arizona and New Mexico by midweek. This will briefly produce a split mid level flow across the eastern half of the country. The local area will be in the southern stream of this flow, with a shortwave moving across the area Wednesday night and Thursday. That portion of the forecast is fairly straight forward, as surface high pressure moves to Florida, placing the local area in onshore flow for Wednesday into Thursday. Precipitable water values climb to the 1.5 to 1.6 range, which is near or above the 90th percentile climatologically. Rain could break out across the area as early as late Wednesday afternoon, but is most likely overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Clouds will increase ahead of that on Wednesday, with the question of high temperatures dependent on how quickly that occurs. Instability is rather lacking, so probably not much more than some embedded thunder. Rain amounts of an inch or two would be what we expect out of this system. We've been dry across much of the area since November 19th, so some rain might actually be welcome. Beyond the frontal passage, the operational medium range guidance starts to exhibit some differences, with the 00z GFS (Global Forecast System) hanging the frontal boundary along the Louisiana coast, while the 00z ECMWF pushes it well offshore, with cold, dry advection across a good portion of the area. The operational temperature guidance exhibits a 15F or more difference in some locations Friday into Saturday. Looking at the GFSBufr soundings for the end of the week, they'd actually support temperatures a good bit closer to the ECMWF colder numbers. It's a situation where 50-100 miles difference in frontal location is the difference between Friday morning lows being near freezing on the north shore vs lows in the lower 50s. The GFS solution would hold rain chances in the forecast from late Wednesday through Saturday night before drying out. The ECMWF would be essentially dry for Thursday evening into most of the weekend, before another chance of rain Sunday. At this point, without a consensus solution, the NBM deterministic is the "safe" bet as a forecast solution, with an expectation that changes will be necessary as the actual solution becomes more apparent. Marine Issued at 300am CST Monday Dec 2 2024 Will institute Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the western open waters today with forecast package issuance. While wind speeds may occasionally creep above 15 knots elsewhere, the area under the headline will more confidently be in the 15 to 20 knot range today. Similar conditions will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night over the same area. The next frontal passage on Thursday may lead to Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories Thursday night into Friday, depending on the location of the frontal boundary. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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