Lake Borgne Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves Around 4 Feet. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. |
| Sunday...East Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Waves Around 4 Feet. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1219am CDT Sunday Oct 5 2025 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1213am CDT Sunday Oct 5 2025 Mid level upper low continues near the coast, even as there is an upper ridge across most of the eastern half of the country. A strong upper trough was moving across the northern Rockies. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted off the coast of southeast Louisiana, while high pressure was off the Virginia coast. Moisture levels continued to increase during the day Saturday, at least over the southeast half of the area. The LIX 00z sounding had precipitable water values around 1.7 inches, near the 75th percentile climatologically, with much drier air to the north and west. During the day Saturday, any significant coverage of rain generally stayed well to the south of Interstate 10, with most remaining offshore, although there were a few patches of light rain reported. Lightning also remained well offshore. Northwest portions of the area, where there was more sunshine, saw high temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, but areas east of Interstate 55 struggled to get past 80 degrees. Regarding coastal flooding, we expect one more high tide cycle with flooding potential before winds and astronomical tide ranges both decrease enough to lower the threat. No changes to current configuration. Not a great deal of change in the forecast scenario from previous packages. The upper circulation is expected to get pulled northward today and tonight as a shortwave moves through the base of the trough in the Rockies. Moisture will start surging northward toward sunrise into midday. Precipitable water values will increase to near 2 inches across most of the area by mid to late morning, thanks to 20 to 30 knot east-southeast winds at 925 and 850 mb. A precipitable water value of 2 inches would be above the 90th percentile for early October. The precipitation shield should gradually begin spreading northward toward sunrise. Scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will overspread the entire area, probably by midday, and could continue into the evening hours. The greatest threat of heavy rain should be limited to areas generally near and east of Interstate 55, on the east side of the trough axis, where 1 to 2 inches of rain looks fairly likely, but a few locations could see 2 to 4 inches of rain over the next 24 hours or so. Much of the area has been rather dry since about August 29th, so most locations should be able to tolerate a couple inches of rain unless it falls in a very short time over an urban area. The best forcing is expected to move north of the area later tonight and Monday, but any drying of the airmass will be rather slow. precipitable water values will only fall to about 1.8 inches by Monday afternoon. So, if there's any sunshine on Monday, it's likely to aid in the development of showers and perhaps a storm or two, but the best heavy rain threat will have departed. High temperatures will struggle to get very far beyond the 80 degree mark today, but with high humidities, we probably won't notice much of a difference. Monday should see more breaks in the clouds, and should allow temperatures to get into the middle 80s. Overnight lows tonight aren't likely to get much below 70, and along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, more like mid 70s, as lake water temperatures are still near 80 degrees. Long Term (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1213am CDT Sunday Oct 5 2025 Upper ridging is expected to become established along the northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday, with the center of the ridge eventually becoming centered over Texas by Thursday into next weekend. The main trough axis will eventually re-establish itself to the east of our area by late week, returning to what has been the prevailing upper air pattern for much of the last 6 weeks. Precipitable water values will slowly decrease to between the 50th and 75th percentile by Wednesday and Thursday, and to around the 25th percentile(approx 1 inch) by Saturday. This should be reflected in a gradual diminishing trend in rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, especially as one gets further away from the coast. By Thursday and Friday, the only mention of rain in the forecast is expected to be slight chances over lower portions of the southeast Louisiana coastal parishes, with the forecast for next Saturday completely dry. As the airmass slowly dries out, we'll start seeing a little more sunshine each day. Much of the area should see highs 85-90F on Tuesday, and everyone should be close to 90 Wednesday, and probably through Friday. Saturday highs may be a little more in question, as a shortwave moving toward the base of the trough to our east could pull a dry cold front through the area. That may knock a few degrees off of high temperatures for a day or two. As we get deeper into October, with less daylight, average high and low temperatures really start to show a downward trend. By the end of the week, average highs are generally in the lower 80s and overnight lows range from near 60 over southwest Mississippi to the mid 60s in areas just south of Lake Pontchartrain. The numbers that are in the current forecast for mid and late week are about 5-7F above normal. All indications are that beyond the next few days...warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected for a good portion of October, certainly for the next week or two. Marine Issued at 1213am CDT Sunday Oct 5 2025 Low pressure over the north-central Gulf and a high pressure system over the eastern seaboard will keep a persistent easterly flow of 15 to 25 knots in place across all of the waters today. These winds will also have a pretty long fetch across the eastern Gulf waters, and this will support higher seas of up to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters due to a combination of wind waves and swell. Small craft advisories are in effect through the afternoon hours due to these hazardous conditions. The high will start to become more dominant over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, and this will allow the easterly winds to relax a bit to between 10 and 15 knots. Seas will also decrease to 2 to 4 feet as the winds relax. This brief respite in rougher conditions will end on Wednesday and Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens again over the Gulf. Easterly winds will increase back to near advisory levels in the offshore waters and seas will increase to 4 to 6 feet. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm CDT this evening for LAZ069- 070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CDT this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6am CDT early this morning for GMZ550-552-570-572. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CDT this evening for GMZ534-536- 538-555-557-575-577. Small Craft Advisory until 6am CDT early this morning for GMZ552-570-572. |
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