Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers This Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Slight Chance Of Snow Showers Early, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers From Late Evening On. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Snow Showers Saturday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Snow Showers Monday Night. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 621am EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Synopsis It won't be nearly as cold the next few days...as the glacial like airmass of the past few days has lifted back to our north. In fact...it may feel downright 'mild' later this weekend into early next week...as the mercury in many areas will climb back towards normal levels. Unfortunately...there will still be bouts of wintry weather...especially east of the lakes where there will be periods of accumulating snow. Near Term - Through Friday Benign weather will be found throughout the region for much of today...as a cold front will approach from Lower Michigan. While there may be some flurries around...and for the North country a few nuisance snow showers...weather of any consequence will hold off until at least late this afternoon. It will NOT be nearly as cold... as the arctic air of the past few days has retreated to the north. Temperatures regionwide will climb into the low to mid 20s A cold front will bear down on our forecast area late this afternoon with lake enhanced snow blossoming northeast of Lake Erie. This should result in a burst of moderately heavy snow during the evening rush hour commute across northern Erie county and also for sites mainly north of Watertown. Snowfall amounts from this scenario will only range from one to three inches...but its timing in the vcnty of the rush hour will prompt a winter weather advisory to be issued for northern Erie county. As we push past the early evening...more widespread lake enhanced snows will impact parts of the western Southern Tier (esp southern Erie co) and Jefferson county with several inches of snow. Winter weather advisories will be issued for these sites as well with nighttime snow accumulations ranging from 3-5 inches. While amounts will be a bit lower for Chautauqua...Cattaraugus and Oswego counties... advisories will be in place to cover the potential for snow induced problems across the higher terrain. An inch of two of snow will be possible over Genesee and Wyoming counties. For the remainder of the region tonight...it just be mainly cloudy with nothing more than some flurries or inconsequential light snow showers. High pressure will cross our forecast area on Friday. While this will all but guarantee uneventful weather including flurries and scattered light snow showers...deepening cold air in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will support accumulating lake snows to the east of both lakes. Winter weather advisories will be in place for these areas where a few more inches of snow will fall across parts of the Srn Tier and up to six inches will accumulate near the Oswego county lakeshore. Relatively weak winds should help to keep the bulk of the lake snows within 15-20 miles of the lakes. Short Term - Friday Night Through Saturday Night The axis of a positively tilted 500mb trough will pivot across the Eastern Great Lakes Friday night, with strong surface high pressure along the spine of the Appalachians cresting northward into the region in its immediate wake. The resultant backing wind profiles, WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) and lowering subsidence inversion heigheights will cause the ongoing lake effect snows off both lakes to drift back northward and diminish in strength through the night. This said, BUFKIT profiles indicate EQLs over Lake Ontario will be near 9kft through about 06z before dropping to about 6kft by daybreak Saturday. This should support a period of moderately heavy snowfall across central/ northern Oswego County before the band further lifts towards southern Jefferson and weakens. While an additional 3-6" looks plausible in this area overnight (especially closer to the LO shoreline), northeast of Lake Erie the overall lake response should be far lighter, with only an inch or so of additional snowfall expected. A progressive upper level ridge over the region Saturday morning will shuffle eastward to New England by the afternoon, with the surface ridge flattening as it moves to the coast. A few lingering lake effect snow showers may persist through the morning hours across northern Jefferson and up near the St. Lawrence, though elsewhere it should be a relatively quiet start to the day. This won't last however, as low-amplitude troughing will build back across the lakes from the west by Saturday night. Divergent flow aloft under the poleward exit region of a 140kt ULJ at the base of this trough will cause chances for snow to increase east of both lakes through the afternoon and evening hours. A cold front arriving from the west later Saturday night should then reinvigorate the lake response to a degree and focus lake enhanced/upslope snows east of the lakes. Given the overall lack of deeper moisture, height falls aloft, and stronger low level convergence, not expecting snowfall with this system to be particularly intense in most areas. In addition, temps at 850H only look marginally supportive of a lake response until the slightly colder airmass arrives with the front later Saturday night. The main potential exception will be east of Lake Ontario where increasing fetch over the lake and closer proximity to deeper moisture over Canada could lead to another period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall Saturday night. Otherwise...While temps Friday night will likely hover in the mid teens to single digits, a notable amount of warming is expected through Saturday, with highs in the mid 20s across the hilltops to near 30 across the Lake Plains. Saturday night will likely be the warmest we have seen in some time, with a non-diurnal trend expected ahead of the cold front. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Broad longwave troughing will remain anchored across the northeastern quadrant of North America through much of next week. A series of shortwaves pivoting through the base of this trough will maintain the active winter weather pattern across the forecast area, with periodic chances for synoptic, lake enhanced, and/or upslope snows. This said, while the latter will likely be ongoing east of both lakes heading into Sunday (especially east of Lake Ontario), a more substantiative break in the activity is expected Sunday night as a flat mid-level ridge briefly builds over the region. Lighter intensity lake snows could persist overnight northeast of Lake Ontario as winds turn southeasterly. Chances for snow will then increase across the region through the day Monday and into Monday night as one particularly robust shortwave and attendant broad surface low dive southeast across Northern Ontario and into Quebec. Quite a bit of uncertainty at this range in regards to the strength, track and timing of this low, though in general chances for snow are currently greatest east of Lake Ontario where greater forcing/moisture will be found closer to the passing low, as well across the hilltops east of Lake Erie where orographic lifting may come into play. 850H temps Monday and Monday night look too warm to support much of a lake response off either lake, though will need to watch trends as it could be close. Will also need to keep an eye on winds Monday as models are trending notably stronger with a passing 850H jet as the surface low swings north of the region. The weak WAA regime could potentially limit stronger gust potential, though have bumped up gusts to near 40mph in spots Monday afternoon. A consistent feed of synoptic moisture across the forecast area and gradual height falls aloft will then maintain chances for snow across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures through early next week will still be on the cold side, though trend closer to climatological norms for late January with Monday in particular being the warmest day we have seen in some time. That is to say, we may just warm above the freezing mark across the lower terrain areas in the afternoon. A deeper trough axis then looks to pivot into the Great Lakes moving towards Wednesday, with a potential accompanying arctic front shoving southward upon its arrival. Very large spread in the long range guidance on the timing of this front, which will greatly influence both snow chances and temperatures. Have stuck close to NBM with just a chance for additional snow and temps in the 20s for Wednesday, though could easily see this swing in either direction. Stay tuned. Marine Southerly winds throughout the Lower Great lakes early this morning will become southwesterly and freshen during the course of the day...as a cold front will approach from Lower Michigan. This will lead to the issuance of fairly widespread small craft advisories. The exception will on Lake Erie where ice cover will limit the impact of the strengthening winds. Fresh to occasionally strong westerlies early tonight will gradually subside overnight while veering to the northwest. Fresh west to northwest winds can then be expected on Friday...as high pressure will build over the region. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 1am EST Saturday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6am EST Friday for NYZ007. Winter Weather Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for NYZ010. Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm this evening to 1pm EST Friday for NYZ019-020-085. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6pm EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 1am EST Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 10am EST Friday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 1pm EST Friday for LOZ044. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Friday for LOZ045. |
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