Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Showers Early. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Tuesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1216pm EDT Sat April 19 2025 Synopsis A cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes today, supporting a few rounds of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may produce brief, heavy downpours. The rain will end from northwest to southeast late today and this evening following the passage of the cold front. High pressure will build into the area Sunday with a return to sunshine and somewhat cooler temperatures for the second half of the weekend. Another front will then cross the region Monday with the next round of showers and a chance of a few thunderstorms. Near Term - Through Sunday A mid level trough will strengthen and sharpen as it moves east across Ontario and Quebec today through Sunday morning. An associated surface low will track quickly east across southern Quebec today before reaching the Gulf of Saint Lawrence by Sunday morning, with a trailing cold front moving southeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Large scale forcing for ascent along the cold front will be relatively weak, with most of the stronger ascent associated with small scale convectively augmented shortwaves. A narrow plume of deep moisture along and ahead of the cold front will advect across the eastern Great Lakes today, with surface dewpoints rising into the 55-60 degree range briefly. The combination of moisture, forcing, and limited instability will support a high probability of rain today across the region, although the more precise details of timing and track of several clusters of showers will be difficult at best given the weak, stochastic nature of forcing. Sufficient instability will support a few widely scattered thunderstorms, a few of which will produce brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out even with relatively low storm tops given the strong pre-frontal wind field, with Storm Prediction Center having much of the area in a Marginal Risk. A strong 50+ knot low level jet will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes today. Surface wind gusts will increase this morning as the boundary layer begins to mix and steepen low level lapse rates. Gusts of 20-30 knots will be common across the area, with an area of 35+ knot gusts likely from the Niagara Frontier to near Rochester. Winds will quickly diminish later this afternoon and evening as the low level jet departs. Rain will end from northwest to southeast late this afternoon and evening following the passage of the cold front, with partial clearing overnight. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Sunday, with associated dry air and subsidence bringing a return to sunshine. Temperatures will be cooler than today, but not far from average for the third week in April. Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night Mid-level ridge axis centered across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night will continue to travel east Monday. Meanwhile the next trough across the Central Plains will lift northeast towards and across the upper Great Lakes Monday and into southern Ontario and Quebec by Tuesday. After initial dry weather Sunday night, associated low pressure over Iowa late Sunday night will lift northeast across the upper Great Lakes Monday and into southern Ontario and Quebec Monday night into Tuesday morning, resulting in a pair of frontal boundaries to pass across the region Monday into Tuesday morning. As such, expect the next round of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms to spread from west to east Monday. The aforementioned trough axis will pull east across the area Tuesday, with surface high pressure building in across the central and eastern Great Lakes. This being said, by Tuesday morning the bulk of the shower activity associated with the frontal passage will be to the east of the forecast area. Though dry, it will be breezy Tuesday with westerly gusts up to 40mph at times. Additionally, in the wake of the front cooler temperatures will advect in across the region, dropping day time highs back towards normal for mid to late April. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Zonal flow will set up across the central and eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Saturday. However, a weak shortwave will ripple through Thursday with a more potent trough to begin to develop upstream across the upper Great Lakes late in the week/early weekend. As such, expect mainly dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance for a few showers with the shortwave passage Thursday. Then, with the aforementioned developing trough across the upper Great Lakes, timing and strength of this feature continues to remain uncertain. This being said, didn't stray from the NBM (National Blend of Models) for Friday through the start of the weekend. Marine A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon. Southwest winds will increase this morning ahead of the front, then become westerly later today, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northwest tonight and gradually diminish, bringing an end to Small Craft Advisory conditions. Sunday morning will still be choppy on Lake Ontario with elevated northwest winds. High pressure will then build into the lower Great Lakes in the afternoon, with subsiding winds and waves. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Sunday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for SLZ022-024. |
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