Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northwest. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Rain Showers Late This Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain Showers Early This Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
|Tonight...Light And Variable Winds. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
|Sunday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
|Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Rain Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920am EST Sat Mar 2 2024
A mid level disturbance over southern Ontario will cross our region today while generating some rain, especially from the Genesee Valley eastward. High pressure will then remain anchored near the east coast Sunday through Monday, providing dry and very warm weather with temperatures likely soaring to record highs Monday.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Radar imagery showing scattered showers and some light drizzle across Western NY at mid morning. A more coherent area of steady rain over the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes will expand into Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region through midday, before gradually tapering off from west to east during the afternoon and evening. This area of rain is being driven by a well defined mid level shortwave and area of deeper moisture extending north and west from a weak low passing through the Mid Atlantic states. Rainfall amounts will range from less than a tenth of an inch west of the Genesee Valley to a quarter inch or so from the Finger Lakes region to the southern Tug Hill region. Clouds and showers will keep temperatures lower with highs in the 40s across the region.
Mid to high level clouds will exit the region tonight but low level clouds will linger overnight. Calm winds and dewpoint depressions near 0 will increase the chance for fog across the region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday Night
The axis of a ridge will cross the region Sunday as an elongated area of high pressure stretches from the Northeast to eastern Quebec. Sunday will likely start out with some fog and stratus, as low level moisture gets trapped beneath strengthening subsidence inversion. Abundant sunshine returns by midday and afternoon as the low level inversion mixes out. A southerly flow will send temperatures about 20 degrees above normal with highs reaching well into the 50s and lower 60s.
High pressure will remain in place Monday bringing a fair weather day, along with continuing strong warm advection. Temperatures will be even warmer with near record or record warmth an almost certainty at all 3 of our climate sites, as highs reach well into the 60s to lower 70s, some 30 degrees above normal.
An area of low pressure well north of the area Monday night will track a cold front across the Upper Great Lakes. This will bring an increase in cloud cover from west to east, but precipitation likely remains west of the area through the night.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
WELL above normal temperatures will 'likely' persist for one more day, possible even more.
An elongated surface high anchored along the Northeast coast Tuesday will continue to draw up a mild airmass across the region with highs topping out in the 60s near 70F. After Tuesday...confidence decreases rapidly as the next system (cold front) approaches the Lower Lakes. Have held close to the previous forecast package in regards to PoPs, but have bumped up temps on Tuesday several degrees over NBM. Have done the same for Wednesday but to a lesser degree (may go up or down). This will all depend on the frontal timing, or even an advertised wave forming along the front as the GFS (Global Forecast System) suggests. Given the latter (GFS), we could be looking at a fairly wet forecast for Wednesday which looks like it does clear out of here on Thursday. Look at an entirely different solution (ECMWF), the front is much much more progressive moving through late Tuesday and then entirely clears the region by Wednesday. This would leave our area cooler and dry. It would also have an impact on highs for Wednesday but still above normal just cooler by 10F to 15F.
After Wednesday...the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows the same frontal boundary returning north Thursday as a coastal low develops bringing some potential impacts to our region. It even shows it becoming cold enough to support a mix of rain-wet snow for Thursday night into Friday. Hence the reluctance to deviate too far from NBM/previous forecast. As was said...have mainly made changes to temps going above guidance Tuesday where confidence is high. We could again be looking at records or near record highs.
Light to moderate southerlies are anticipated into the weekend as the surface high moves off the coast and an upper level disturbance approaches from the southern plains.
February 2024 was a warm month with below normal snowfall across western and north central NY. Average temperatures for the three climate sites either tied for the warmest February on record or came in as the 2nd warmest on record.
February 2024 Record
Buffalo 34.8(Tied for warmest) 34.8 (2017)
Rochester 34.7(2nd warmest) 35.5 (2017)
Watertown 30.1(3rd warmest) 31.2 (1981)
Temperature Period of Record Buffalo 1871 - Present Rochester 1871 - Present Watertown 1949 - Present
Another round of potentially record breaking warmth is expected across the region Sunday through Tuesday. Current record highs for our three major climate sites are as follows:
Sunday 3/3 Monday 3/4 Tuesday 3/5
Buffalo 70/1974 63/1974 68/2004
Rochester 65/2008 69/1974 67/2004
Watertown 59/2008 56/1974 67/1976
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories