Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Morning. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Showers Likely Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 140pm EDT Monday August 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms expected through Tuesday. 2.) The next potential for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday and last through Friday. Key Message 1...Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms expected through Tuesday. Upper level trough axis passing across eastern New York and into New England this afternoon, is helping to further mature a surface low overhead of northwestern Quebec this afternoon. Meanwhile, within the low levels of the atmosphere, temperatures have cooled to around +7 to +8 degrees Celsius, supporting lake effect rain showers to persist east of Lake Erie and span across much of the western Southern Tier, through the Genesee Valley and northeast of eastern Lake Ontario. Heading into this afternoon, with diurnal instability increasing showers may become stronger and develop into thunderstorms. This will especially be the case from the Finger Lakes eastward as the shortwave trough passes overhead. With the loss of daytime heating this evening, inland convection will diminish. However, the cool cyclonic flow aloft will support lake enhanced showers to persist, especially east of Lake Ontario where a deeper moisture source will lie. Winds will shift to the WNW Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in across the eastern Great Lakes. First, lake effect showers west of the Lakes will shift south/southeast of the lakes heading into Tuesday. Then the introduction of drier air will act to diminish the lake effect activity from west to east Tuesday. Key Message 2...The next potential for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday and last through Friday. The next trough will dive southeast across the upper Great Lakes Wednesday before passing across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday and into New England Friday. Similar to the past few days an occluding surface low will slide east across southern Ontario and into Quebec in the later half of the week, supporting a pair of fronts to traverse east across the forecast area. Ahead/along the warm frontal and cold frontal boundary passages, expect the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Marine Cool cyclonic flow will remain across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and into midday Tuesday, where a brisk southwesterly flow of 15 to 25 knots will continue to support Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements. Additionally, due to the cooler temperatures flowing over the warm lakes, the potential for waterspouts can't be ruled out. In the wake of a surface trough passage this evening, winds will veer westerly tonight where the initially choppy waters will gradually diminish through the night. Wind will continue to slightly veer Tuesday, with a west-northwest wind Tuesday morning diminishing by Tuesday afternoon as surface high pressure builds east into the eastern Great Lakes. A period of light winds and waves will then last through Wednesday as surface high pressure is overhead. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ010-019- 085. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. |
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