Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. A Chance Of Rain Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Thunderstorms With A Slight Chance Of Rain Showers Late. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Rain Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers Likely In The Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 2 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southeast And Diminishing To Less Than 10 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 759pm EDT Fri April 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes for this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Windy with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 2) Showers with embedded thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday morning. 3) Late winter weather will return heading into the new work week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Windy with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. In the wake of the warm frontal passage this morning, a strong low level jet of 55 to 65 knots is overhead. Subtle clearing and diurnal mixing is supporting some gusts of 40 to 45 mph along the shores and just east of Lake Erie. Additionally, a weak cold front will pass across the region this afternoon. With its passage, a few showers and thunderstorms will pass from west to east. Severe weather is not expected as instability is rather limited. Additional flooding is not anticipated as rainfall amounts will be under a quarter of an inch. KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers with embedded thunderstorms and the potenial for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday morning. A trough spread across the lee side of the Rockies, this afternoon will deepen and lift northeast into the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday night. In turn this will support a pair of frontal boundaries (warm, then cold) to pass across the region late this weekend. In the wake of the warm front lifting north across the region Saturday morning, bringing a chance for showers, ample warm moist air from the Gulf will spill across the lower Great Lakes region. Despite limited instability (MUCAPE of 250 to 750 J/kg) with ample shear, severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the main threat being damaging winds and isolated hail. Additionally with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values of 1.25 inches (approaching climatological daily maximum of around 1.3 inches on April 5 at 00Z), any thunderstorms that do form will have the potential for heavy rainfall, where rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 inches across WNY to over an inch, possibly near an inch and a quarter across the eastern Lake Ontario region. To summarize, with the cold frontal passage there is a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (per the Storm Prediction Center) and a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (per the Weather Prediction Center) Saturday afternoon into Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Late winter weather will return heading into the new work week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage Sunday, cold air will spill southeast across the region Sunday afternoon through Monday, with 850mb temperatures plummeting back toward -7C. Not only will this support temperatures at the surface to return to late winter, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday and further dropping into a range of 30s Tuesday. Additionally, lake effect showers of snow and daytime snow and rain will develop east and southeast of the lakes. There may be an uptick in activity Monday into Tuesday with the passage of a secondary cold front. Marine Gusty winds will persist this afternoon, maintaining small craft conditions on both Lakes Erie and Ontario due to a 55 to 65 knot low level jet overhead and diurnal heating, mixing these winds to the surface. A cold front will pass Saturday night into Sunday morning, supporting west winds of 20 to 25 knots and small craft conditions to linger into Monday. Hydrology A few creeks and rivers remain in flood, including the Tonawanda Creek, and the Black River. These slower responding waterways will remain in flood into tonight. Low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts will bring additional moderate to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms Saturday, and especially Saturday night. There will be a low risk for additional flooding due to our still nearly-saturated ground conditions. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ042>045. |
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