Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts Through Early Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Morning. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early This Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming East. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...East Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 519am EDT Wednesday August 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A round of showers and scattered thunderstorms today. 2) Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend. Key Message 1... A round of showers and scattered thunderstorms today. A wavy cold front currently draped across the central Great Lakes will push eastward today in tandem with a supporting shortwave impulse...with these features consequently crossing our area from west to east. Coupled with some weak to modest instability...lift supplied by the cold front and DCVA/height falls attendant to the shortwave should help to generate a round of showers and scattered thunderstorms across our region today...though (as is typical) coverage will be uneven...with the greatest precipitation chances found closer to the lakes early in the day...and then inland from the lakes from late morning into the afternoon. In the wake of the front...a few more showers/storms will then remain possible later this afternoon/early this evening in the vicinity of a modest lake breeze convergence zone arcing from far WNY into the Finger Lakes. All of this will then quickly fade after sunset with the loss of heating. Key Message 2...Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend. Depending upon its exact track...another weak wave of low pressure passing by to our south could potentially bring a few showers back into the Southern Tier and interior portions of the Finger Lakes very late tonight and Thursday. Otherwise...dry and comfortable weather should prevail Thursday through Friday as Canadian high pressure slides from the Upper Great Lakes to New England. Conditions will then turn more unsettled over the weekend as upper level troughing over Ontario Province digs southeastward and eventually closes off near the southern Ontario/Quebec border. At the surface...an attendant elongated surface low will push its warm front into our region Saturday afternoon and evening...followed by its trailing cold front Saturday night and Sunday. Increasing moisture and modest/moderate diurnal instability should support the development of some showers and scattered thunderstorms with the warm front Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. Another round of more widespread showers and a embedded storms will then likely follow Saturday night into early Sunday as the cold front crosses our region...with cooler cyclonic flow/upper troughing in the wake of the front then supporting some additional instability showers/storms for the balance of Sunday. Marine A modest (10-15 knot) southwesterly flow will be in place across the area into this morning out ahead of an approaching cold front...with winds then veering to westerly and then northwesterly this afternoon and evening in the wake of the frontal passage. Winds will then lighten overnight and turn more northeasterly on Lake Erie in response to a weak wave of low pressure making its way across the Ohio Valley. On Thursday the aforementioned weak wave will slide east from the Upper Ohio Valley and across the mid-Atlantic states...with high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes otherwise sliding from the Upper Great Lakes to New England through Friday. This will allow for winds to become lighter and more variable in direction for much of this time frame...before turning more easterly/northeasterly during Friday. Modest southeasterly to southerly flow will then develop Friday night and Saturday as the ridge exits off the east coast... and elongated low pressure pushes east across the central Great Lakes and Southern Ontario. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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