Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 25 Knots. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Thursday Night. Waves 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Saturday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 737pm EDT Monday Jun 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added low chances of showers near the Saint Lawrence River today. Increased winds and wind gusts across the region for Wednesday night through Thursday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong system is expected to bring a period of gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system is expected to bring a period of gusty winds and showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday. A longwave trough will settle across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region through the week. A notably cooler airmass will reside across the region. Unsettled weather will begin Wednesday as a weak system moves across the Central Great Lakes. A warm front will usher in moisture and forcing and scattered showers are expected to move across the region. A few thunderstorms are possible from the Finger Lakes region to the eastern Lake Ontario region however instability is expected to be weak. Low-end wind gusts to 25 mph are expected inland from the Lakes. A potent shortwave trough and a deep surface low for mid-June will move northwest of the region Wednesday night through Thursday. Local research suggests a favorable track for strong winds for western and north-central NY. A 60-70kt low-level jet is expected to move from southwest to northeast across the region Wednesday night. A surface inversion will inhibit deep mixing, however a south-southeast surface wind will may lead to strong downslope winds. Confidence is low as deep moisture moves into the region with the strong jet and may stabilize the surface inversion and limit downslope winds. Then, the surface low is expected to move north of Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence River Thursday and a pre-frontal trough and cold front will move across the forecast area. A period of strong southwest winds is possible Thursday. Wind gusts may exceed 45 mph with higher confidence of wind gusts higher than 50 mph northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The core of the strongest winds will move east of the area later Thursday and winds will slowly diminish through Thursday night. Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25-0.75" Wednesday night through Thursday, with less than 0.25 inches across the Finger Lakes region. Marine An anomalously cool airmass for mid-June will spread across the Lakes early this week. A westerly flow on the Lakes will continue to produce Small Craft conditions on Lake Ontario, and choppy conditions on Lake Erie today. Winds will back to the southwest on Lake Erie this afternoon which may result in a brief period of 15-20 knots before subsiding this evening. A light southwest wind will continue on the Lakes tonight through Tuesday. A deep low is expected to move northwest of the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night through Thursday. This system will likely bring increasing winds and waves and subsequently marine headlines. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this time. Guidance continues to suggest that we could see winds gusting up to 35 knots on both lakes approaching low end gales. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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