Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Friday Night...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Rain Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Monday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers During The Day, Then Showers Likely Monday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 820pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A frontal boundary will bring occasional showers late Thursday through Friday, before a warming trend into early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal boundary will bring occasional showers late Thursday through Friday, before a warming trend into early next week. An upper level trough will move north of the Great Lakes region tonight through Thursday. An occluded low will move towards James Bay and an associated cold front will approach the forecast area. Initially, a warm front will lift across the region tonight, and dry air and subsidence will continue to support dry weather through Thursday. Modest moisture ahead of an advancing cold front will support the chance of rain showers late Thursday through Thursday evening. Average rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch, with a few spots of up to a quarter of an inch across western NY. The front will stall across the region late Thursday night through Friday while a shortwave trough approaches the forecast area. A surface wave is expected to ride along the front with moisture deepening along a tightening thermal gradient. Widespread showers are expected to move across the region Friday. Embedded moderate showers are expected late morning through afternoon. An upper level trough and strong high pressure will build across the region late Friday through Friday night and the front will move south of the forecast area. Showers will diminish from north to south with expected storm total rainfall 0.25-0.50" Friday. A brief period of cold air advection will move into the region Friday night through Saturday resulting in a dip in temperatures. Warm air advection the second half of the weekend into early next week with temperatures climbing back into the 60s to low 70s. Marine High pressure will drift off the east coast tonight, with low pressure moving across Ontario and Quebec bringing increasing southerly winds to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Even though the wind will be mainly an offshore, a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be in place tonight for the eastern end of Lake Ontario, and is possible Thursday for the rest of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1am Thursday to 2am EDT Friday for LOZ044-045. |
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