Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

W
WINDS
35
KNOTS

TUESDAY

W
WINDS
30
KNOTS

TUESDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
30
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

NW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ045 Forecast Issued: 903 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY
Rest Of Tonight...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 30 Knots. Snow Late This Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers After Midnight. Waves 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet.
Tuesday...West Winds To 30 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 8 To 12 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 15 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening. Waves 7 To 11 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet.
Wednesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming North. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Friday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Saturday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Snow Showers Saturday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
414am EST Tuesday Feb 18 2025

Synopsis
Heavy lake effect snow will continue south and southeast of Lake Ontario through Wednesday morning. Bitterly cold air will remain through mid week. A weak low pressure wave will bring a chance for light snow Thursday. Quieter conditions are expected this weekend with a slight warming trend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Arctic airmass over the region through tonight, with 850 mb temperatures around -20C. This will maintain plenty of over-lake instability, and cyclonic flow aloft and periodic shortwaves will provide ample synoptic moisture to produce lake effect snow. Subtle upstream lake connections will also play a role in enhancing the downstream lake snows.

The main lake effect snow band continuing to hug the south shore of Lake Ontario early this morning, arcing into Oswego county. Estimated snowfall rates across Oswego county up to 2" per hour. Hi-res models are fairly aligned showing little movement to the snow band today, other than some slight north-south oscillation, as the steering flow remains generally around 290-295 degrees. The heaviest snow will focus across Oswego and northern Cayuga counties with the southern edge of the snow band clipping the remainder of the south shore of Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations likely upwards of a foot in the most persistent snows.

Steering flow veers slightly tonight to around 300 degrees with the lake snows focusing pretty much along the entire shore shore of Lake Ontario. The heaviest snows likely will focus from northern Monroe to southern Oswego counties. Additional accumulations likely again upwards of a foot in the most persistent snows.

Winds today will not be quite as gusty as Monday, but still could see continued gusts to 35 to 40 mph, especially along the Lake Ontario shoreline, with considerable blowing and drifting snow with localized whiteout conditions still remaining possible. Winds will lower tonight lessening the threat for blowing and drifting.

Very cold through tonight. Cold weather advisories remain in place this morning for wind chills as cold as 15 below to 20 below zero, except counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Not much recovering in actual temperatures today with highs in the teens and single digits for higher terrain. Lows tonight ranging from the single digits to as cold as 10 below east of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be as elevated, but wind chills still as cold as 5 below to 15 below zero.

Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
Moving into Wednesday...Mid/upper level troughing will extend from the Canadian Maritimes to the Upper Midwest across northern New England and the central Great Lakes. Two distinct cyclonic circulations aloft will initially be embedded within this trough Wednesday morning, one across southern Quebec and another over Minnesota. Over the course of this period the axis of the parent trough will slowly pivot counterclockwise, digging south across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic states in the process, before moving off the coast Thursday night. Concurrently, the aforementioned lows aloft will slowly congeal into a single partially open wave, the center of which will track just south of the region.

The evolution of this troughing pattern will allow for the chilly air to stick around, though the disruption of cross-polar flow should allow the overhead airmass to warm a few degrees. This said, 850H temps will still generally range from -17C to -20C until the more notable warming occurs later Thursday night. Not only will this translate to chilly surface temperatures, but also the continued threat for lake effect snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Northwest flow and higher moisture content over Lake Ontario should translate to these showers being focused over the counties bordering the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. Surface high pressure ridging into the region from the Ohio Valley should introduce some shear and limit EQL heigheights so not expecting snows to be overly impactful, though with the 850H ridge significantly subdued they could be rather persistent.

As the mid-level low tracks east from Ohio to the southern Jersey coast Thursday, height falls aloft and synoptic moisture circulating around the low will bring snow outside the main lake effect areas. Chances for snow increase starting late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, peaking in the afternoon hours across WNY. With the eastern Great Lakes far removed from the greater forcing, this system looks to bring only minor additional accumulations, likely even lower across the North Country. Lower-end impacts to the afternoon (and possibly morning) commute are still possible Thursday. Northwest flow lake effect/upslope snow showers look increasingly likely behind the system Thursday night, especially during the first half of the night as 850H temps remain marginally cold enough and synoptic moisture lingers.

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
A flattening sfc-700mb ridge will build east across the lakes Friday, with an expansive surface high moving across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys. Warming 850H temps and much drier air arriving ahead of the ridge axis should lead to a diminishing lake response through the course of the day Friday, with any leftover light snows shifting northward Friday night as the flow becomes west-southwesterly.

The next broad longwave trough will move across northern Ontario and dig south across Quebec over the weekend, the axis of which looks to move through the eastern Great Lakes between Sunday night and Monday. Probability of Precipitation remain on the lower side as there is poor agreement amongst the long range guidance on the timing of this feature, as well as a few weak shortwave ripples that will likely be embedded within this trough. There are enough signals that a more potent system may then descend on the area from the Upper Midwest later Monday into Monday night to warrant higher chances for precip. Temperatures may warm enough by this point to lead to some rain or a wintry mix, though confidence remains low in this potential.

Marine
Elevated westerly flow in the wake of the departing will generate high-end small craft advisory conditions on both Lake Ontario and Lake Erie today. Winds will gradually diminish tonight. Small craft headlines will drop off tonight, but remain on Lake Ontario into Wednesday, as winds will take a bit longer to diminish.

A period of elevated northwest winds will develop on Lake Ontario Thursday night into Friday with marginal small craft conditions developing.

Periods of 15-20 knots southwesterly winds are possible this weekend.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Wednesday for NYZ001. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1pm EST Wednesday for NYZ002- 003. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6am EST Wednesday for NYZ004>006-008. Cold Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for NYZ006>008-010>014-019>021-085.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Wednesday for LOZ042- 045. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044.

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