Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest. Snow Late This Evening, Then Snow Showers Likely After Midnight. A Chance Of Snow Showers Late. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 9 To 12 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 15 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 40 Knot Gales. Lake Effect Snow Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Lake Effect Snow In The Afternoon. Waves 10 To 15 Feet Building To 12 To 16 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 20 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...West Gales To 40 Knots Diminishing To 35 Knots. Lake Effect Snow. Waves 12 To 17 Feet Subsiding To 11 To 15 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 22 Feet. |
| Friday...West Gales To 35 Knots. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 10 To 15 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 19 Feet. |
| Friday Night...Northwest Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots Overnight. Snow Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers Overnight. Waves 10 To 14 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Saturday...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East 10 Knots Or Less. Partly Cloudy, Then Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast. Snow Likely. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 140am EST Thu Jan 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winter Weather Advisory upgraded to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for southern Erie and Wyoming counties through 1PM Friday. Winter Storm Watch issued for the entire area Sunday through Monday for the potential of widespread, heavy synoptic snow. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Localized heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie today through Friday, along with gusty winds and significant blowing and drifting snow. 2) Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and last through the weekend. 3) Widespread snow becoming more likely Sunday - Sunday night KEY MESSAGE 1...Localized heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie today through Friday, along with gusty winds and significant blowing and drifting snow. The first in a series of cold fronts will move east from the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region early this morning, producing a period of moderate snow and minor accumulations across much of the region. Lake enhancement will bring locally heavy snow east of Lake Ontario. The second cold front will enter Western NY this morning and become lake enhanced as temperatures aloft begin to cool. This will produce another 2-3 hour period of moderate to briefly heavy lake enhanced snow across much of Western NY, including the Buffalo Metro area with a few more inches of accumulation during the morning commute. The same will happen east of Lake Ontario later this morning through early afternoon with a lake enhanced cold frontal passage. This afternoon through Friday, a more pure lake response will develop with less in the way of synoptic scale forcing and snowfall. Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise to near 10K feet over both lakes tonight through Friday as cold air deepens. Off Lake Erie... The wildcard is the rapid advance of ice cover on Lake Erie over the past few days. While there has been a rapid advance, new ice is thin and/or slushy, especially over the deep water that lies offshore of Western NY. There is likely still enough open or partially open water to support a respectable lake response. Expect a break in the snow following the cold frontal passage this morning. A band of lake effect snow will then develop this afternoon on WSW flow, reaching peak intensity late this afternoon through tonight before weakening Friday morning. Boundary layer flow will generally be WSW, with subtle variations over time forcing several north/south oscillations. Expect the band to have the greatest residence time across southern Erie and Wyoming counties, including some of the Buffalo Southtowns. Working under the assumption that there is still enough open water to produce locally heavy snowfall, accumulations may reach or exceed 1 foot in the most persistent bands across Southern Erie and Wyoming counties, with lesser accumulations across far northern/western Chautauqua County and the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County. Accumulating snow may also brush the southern portion of the northern Erie County zone (including the more densely populated southern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo) and southern Genesee County. Off Lake Ontario... Some shear near the time of the second cold frontal passage may hinder band organization initially today, with a more cellular look or multiple bands possible. This will change by early evening with a more dominant band developing east of the lake. The band will be heavy much of the time from this evening through Friday with 3-4" per hour snowfall rates likely. Subtle variations in wind direction will force the band to oscillate north/south multiple times, with the northernmost extent reaching near Watertown and the southern end of the oscillations extending into far northern Oswego County. Late Friday afternoon an arctic front will move south across the lake and likely shove an east-west oriented band onshore along much of the south shore of the lake with a burst of heavy snow. Expect a local maximum of 2-3 feet across the central and northern Tug Hill Plateau, with a somewhat larger footprint of 8-16" surrounding that. Wind gusts will reach 40+ mph at times today through Friday, with the strongest winds this afternoon and again during the day Friday. This will produce significant blowing and drifting snow in lake effect areas. Key Message 2...Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and last through the weekend. An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for polar air to slide southward across Canada this week...with the cold air supporting a strong +3 SD 1052 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will fall to the mid negative 20s Friday night through Saturday ahead of this surface high. A bitterly and dangerously cold weekend with overnight lows dropping to near zero...to inland areas well below zero. East of Lake Ontario some of the traditionally colder spots on top of recent growing and fresh snowpack could drop to minus 20 or lower. A light wind will allow for wind chill values to plummet to as low as 40 degrees below zero on the Tug Hill with values minus 25 to minus 35 near Watertown and through the Black River Valley. An extreme cold watch has been issued for the North Country. Highs Saturday will only recover to the single digits above zero for WNY, and may linger below zero Saturday east of Lake Ontario. These values may push record territory for record low maximum temperatures for the date, with records listed in the climate section below. Increasing clouds Saturday and Saturday night may keep apparent temperatures just above advisory levels. Key Message 3...Widespread snow becoming more likely Sunday - Sunday night Ahead of phasing northern and southern stream jets, broad scale isentropic lift along with the right entrance region of a 300 hPa 180 knot jet, will send a plume of snow northward...this also on the northwest side of a developing nor'easter. Pacific moisture, combined with Gulf moisture will make for a moisture rich atmosphere to allow for a prolonged period of light snow across our region to close out the weekend. NBM probabilities for greater than 4 inch snowfall amounts Sun-Sunday night have increased from around 15% to now over 60% for areas south of Lake Ontario in the past 24 hours, while east of Lake Ontario still has a 50 percent probability for 4 inches of snow or more over a 24- hour period. If these trends continue, possible warning criteria snow is possible especially for areas south and east, closer to the main surface low to the east. Snow will end late Sunday night as deformation band of heavier precipitation develops and exits eastward...along with the synoptic lift with the 180 knot jet ending. A sharp northern branch shortwave trough will pass overhead Monday. Cold air advection will maintain a bitterly cold airmass into next week with lake effect snow falling downwind of the Great Lakes...with highest chances east of Lake Ontario where the waters remain open. Marine WSW gales will continue on Lake Ontario today through Friday, with sustained winds of 30 knots on Lake Erie. Winds will become northwest Friday night following an arctic cold front, then rapidly diminish late Friday night through Saturday as high pressure builds into the lower Great Lakes. Climate Buffalo Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -11 (1976) 5(1976) January 24 -11 (1976) 1(1963) January 25 -14 (1884) 5(1884) Rochester Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -14 (1976) 5(1976) January 24 -10 (1963) 2(1963) January 25 -6 (1945) 7(1884) Watertown Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -31 (1976) -1(1976) January 24 -30 (2014) 0(2004) January 25 -18 (2007) 3(1992) NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for NYZ001-002-021. Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Friday for NYZ006>008. Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for NYZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Friday for NYZ010-011. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1pm EST Friday for NYZ012-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Friday for NYZ019-020. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Friday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Gale Warning until 7pm EST Friday for LOZ042>045- 062>065. |
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