Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Overnight...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Light And Variable. Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...Light And Variable Winds Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots. Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mainly Clear, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Mainly Clear, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 719pm EDT Fri July 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon toward the western Southern Tier, with potential for isolated gusty winds and heavy rainfall. 2)Dry weather through the weekend and then the heat potentially returns briefly early next week Key Message 1...A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon toward the western Southern Tier, with potential for isolated gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The cold front will ever so slowly push south of the region but before it does so, there will be a short window for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (1PM to 6 PM) during peak heating hours. Severe parameters are by no means ideal again this afternoon, with the better shear profiles north (stable side) of the cold front and the better instability/deeper moisture south of the NY/PA line. However, with 25-30 knots of deep layer shear ahead of the front combined with diurnal heating providing a moderately unstable environment, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out inland of lake breeze circulations across this area, best chance inland areas of the Southern Tier as the front will clear south of this area into PA last. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) today are lower than yesterday filter into the region, generally 1.25-1.5 inches ahead of the boundary. Thus, even though brief heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm, would likely need training storms to cause any sort of isolated flash flooding concern. Storm movement will also be somewhat progressive, further limiting the flash flood threat in that respect as well. Showers and storms will quickly taper off with loss of heating, and as the cold front finally pushes south of the region. Tonight, valley fog formation will be possible across the southern Tier. Key Message 2...Dry weather through the weekend and then the heat potentially returns briefly early next week. Surface based ridging will settle in across the region over the weekend into early next week with continued dry weather. Meanwhile...an impressive 590-600dam ridge anchored over the Inter- mountain West will expand north and northeast across the upper Midwest early next week. Guidance continues to suggest H850 T's will quickly but briefly push up Tuesday into the low 20s (21C-24C). This should easily support Max T's in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in the mid-upper 90s, especially across the lake plains. Marine N-NE flow behind the front will produce some light chop, 1-2 foot waves on Lake Ontario through Saturday. Otherwise...mainly light to gentle breezes and negligible waves are expected through this weekend and into early next week. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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