Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming East 5 To 15 Knots. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Saturday...East Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
709pm EDT Monday September 25 2023
Generally quiet weather will be in place this week as expansive high pressure over northern Quebec settles to New England. Some spotty light rain will occur through tonight with another chance Thursday and Thursday night though most locations will stay dry. Temperatures this week will average near normal but will surge solidly above normal the upcoming weekend.
Near Term - Through Tuesday Night
Not significant weather, but still a tricky forecast as moisture streaming westward from remnants of Ophelia continues to plague part of our area. No issues for the North Country as it is mostly clear there. Elsewhere there will be a risk of showers or sprinkles through this evening as moisture continues to pivot westward across Western NY. Amounts will be light, but still a nuisance for anyone with evening outdoor plans. Forecast update raises Probability of Precipitation to account for radar trends.
Tonight, the approach of a low amplitude shortwave over Ohio and Atlantic sourced moisture streaming westward will allow some for a period of scattered showers mainly for the western Southern Tier, though an isolated shower may make it into the Buffalo Metro overnight also. By late tonight, the only showers left will be dissipating over the Southern Tier. Coolest lows tonight in the 40s will be east of Lake Ontario with less chance of clouds.
On Tuesday, since the center of the surface high over Quebec will shift farther south we should see better chances of remaining dry. Will not be sunny though as the wave drifting across will bring a lot of mid and high clouds with it, at least into early afternoon. By later afternoon majority of the clouds will contract back mainly west and south of our area, though it may stay mostly cloudy along the NY/PA line and maybe also over the North Country where some high clouds will linger into the evening. So long as clouds are not an issue on Tuesday night, it should turn out to be chilly especially east of Lake Ontario with a very dry airmass forecast tied into the surface high. Have went on the lower end of guidance there and also over portions of the Southern Tier which results in lows into the upper 30s. Also added in some valley fog especially Southern Tier.
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
Pseudo Rex block pattern with high over James Bay/western Quebec and low drifting across the western Great Lakes and upper Mississippi River valley will keep the area dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. E to SE low-level flow will result in warmest temps on Wednesday across the Niagara Frontier and over the North Country (low 70s) while coolest readings in the low to mid 60s will be found over the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.
Another seasonably chilly night Wednesday night with only far western NY seeing enough clouds to prohibit good radiational cooling. Other than that area, favored lowest end of guidance which gave mid to upper 30s in typical cold spots and low to mid 40s even over lower elevations. MOS COOP guidance even points to values lower than this for interior Southern Tier. Added fog and frost. This night seems to be shaping up to be the main one this week that possibly could see need for Frost Advisories. At this point though still a pretty low risk.
Thursday and Thursday night, expecting more clouds as the low to the west opens up while moving toward the lower Great Lakes. Forcing, though weak, looks the best from Southern Tier to Finger Lakes later Thursday into Thursday night, so that is where low-end chance pops (20-40%) will reside. The clouds will keep min temps up compared to Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
Weak upper level low draped across our region at the start of Friday will drift southeastward and reconsolidate/redevelop over the western Atlantic through the weekend. Meanwhile...burgeoning upper- level ridging initially over the nation's midsection will strengthen and extend northeastward across the Great Lakes Friday through Sunday...before flattening some Sunday night/Monday in response to weak troughing sliding across Quebec Province. At the lower levels...strong surface-based ridging initially centered over Quebec/New England will retrograde southwestward to New York State over the weekend...then to the Ohio Valley on Monday.
While a few stray light showers cannot be completely ruled out attendant to the departing weak upper trough on Friday...the increased ridging at all levels through the weekend and into early next week should result in dry weather prevailing through the vast majority of this period...along with a gradual day-to-day warming trend. This will result in daytime highs climbing from the upper 60s/lower 70s Friday to the 75-80 range (or a solid 10 degrees or so above normal) in most places by next week Monday. Meanwhile nightly lows will be a bit slower to rise with the sprawling surface high promoting strong radiational cooling each night...but even these should still moderate to the upper 40s to mid 50s by the end of the period. In general...have aimed a bit below NBM guidance each night (particularly across interior sections) due to the favorable setup for radiational cooling...and then above it during both Sunday and Monday when guidance high temps look too cool given the increasingly warmer airmass that should be in place.
Continued tight pressure gradient on southern edge of high pressure building in from northern Quebec will keep winds elevated and waves high along the south shore of Lake Ontario this evening. Winds veer more E/SE later tonight which will keep majority of higher wave action directed into Canadian waters though far western edge of Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Nearshore zone may continue to see conditions close to Small Craft Advisory.
E-SE winds will remain somewhat elevated into Wednesday and Thursday as center of high remains over Quebec into New England instead of over the lakes. At this point, does not appear we will need any additional Small Craft Advisories though.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 2am EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>003.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for LOZ042-043.