Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers From Late Evening On. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Mostly Cloudy In The Morning, Then Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Friday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Monday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers During The Day, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Tuesday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 756pm EDT Thu May 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes made to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool temperatures with occasional showers and drizzle tonight. 2) More unsettled weather this weekend with a few thunderstorms possible across Western NY later Saturday. 3) A warming trend begins Friday with summer-like heat by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool weather and periods of showers will continue tonight. GOES imagery indicates a closed mid-level low centered over central NY this evening. Through tonight this system will wobble southeastward to the vicinity of Long Island, with the associated surface low currently near the Finger Lakes similarly redeveloping off the Northeast coast. The broad cyclonic flow will continue to support dreary weather through tonight with well below cool temps, mostly cloudy skies, on and off light rain showers, and patchy drizzle. Coverage of precipitation should taper off across Western NY by late this evening with the arrival of a dry slot while concurrently expanding back across the eastern Lake Ontario region. The precipitation across these eastern zones will then diminish later tonight into Friday morning, though stray showers may clip the vicinity of the Western Dacks through the afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather this weekend with a few thunderstorms possible across Western NY later Saturday. A broad mid-level wave will gradually take on a sharper, more negative tilt as it slides across Ontario Province and the upper Great Lakes Saturday. This will force a broad surface low northeast across James Bay/southern Hudson Bay and into northern Quebec by Saturday evening. Weaker convective shortwave energy tracking further south will lift a warm frontal segment into the eastern Great Lakes region from the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, which will likely stall out somewhere in the vicinity of WNY. This will likely bring some measure of shower activity to the region from west to east into Saturday night. Daytime insulation may allow for enough instability to support a few thunderstorms, particularly across the western Southern Tier. Relatively meager wind profiles should limit the threat for stronger or more organized convection. The northern low's cold front will sag southward towards the region Saturday night, though likely stall out before reaching the southern reaches of the St. Lawrence Valley. This will leave the forecast area on the warm side with the other previously stalled out boundary still lingering in the region. Thus, lower-end chances for showers remain in the forecast south of Lake Ontario through Sunday until a much more robust system far to the west lifts both boundaries well north of the Great Lakes. KEY MESSAGE 3...A notable warming trend will start Friday, then gains momentum over the weekend with summer-like heat by early next week. A strong high pressure ridge building over the western Atlantic will support persistent warm air advection Friday through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s over the weekend will surge into the 80s across much of the region Monday and Tuesday, especially in areas further removed from lake influences. A few of the typical warm spots (Genesee Valley, Finger Lakes) may approach the 90F mark on Tuesday though the NBM appears several degrees too warm compared to the MaxT spread from the ENS/GEFS. Marine Winds and waves will remain weak across the Lakes tonight. High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley to the southeast coast through Friday night. This will result in winds below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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