Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Today...West Gales To 40 Knots Diminishing To 35 Knots. Lake Effect Snow Showers Early, Then A Chance Of Lake Effect Snow Showers Late. Visibility One Quarter Mile Or Less At Times. Waves In Ice Free Areas 12 To 17 Feet Subsiding To 11 To 15 Feet. Waves In Ice Free Areas Occasionally Around 22 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening. Waves 10 To 13 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. |
| Wednesday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming South To 30 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. Wave Heights Are For Ice Free Areas. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 545am EDT Tuesday Mar 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this issuance. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds will continue this morning. 2) Winter-like conditions will continue through tonight, bringing cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area. 3) A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds will continue this morning. An upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region today. A broad area of 40-50 knots within a well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty winds across the region this morning. Wind gusts of 40-50 knots will peak across the region through daybreak. The highest gusts will be northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as well as along the lakeshores. Winds aloft will weaken through today and wind gusts will drop off by this evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area through 11AM this morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Winter-like conditions will continue through tonight, bringing cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area. A strong area of low pressure continues to move northeast across Quebec this morning. Cold air continues to wrap around the backside of the low and moist, westerly flow with 850mb temperatures falling through the minus teens this morning will support convective snow showers across the region today, and lake effect snow continuing through tonight. Temperatures will only rebound into the low to mid 20s, with wind chills around zero today. Low temperatures will fall to the single digits to low teens tonight. Fresh snow and good radiational cooling may result in low temperatures near zero or below across the northern Tug Hill region tonight. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s today, with lows Off Lake Ontario... A southwesterly flow in the boundary layer and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to 7-9k feet will support a band of lake effect snow across the Saint Lawrence Valley through mid- morning. The flow will veer through the day and the band will settle across the Tug Hill region before reaching northern Cayuga and southern Oswego county by evening. Snowfall rates may reach 2+ inches per hour at times. The high March sun angle may disrupt band organization during the midday through early evening hours as strong diurnal mixing interferes with the convergence structures supporting the band. The lake band is expected to intensify across northern Cayuga and southern Oswego county tonight, before weakening towards Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates may again reach 2+ inches per hour in the most intense band. Additional snow accumulations of 6-10" across the Tug Hill Plateau and also across central/southern Oswego County and far northern Cayuga County through tonight. The rest of the area east of Lake Ontario will see 2-5" from a combination of synoptic snow early this morning and then lake effect snow thereafter. A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect. Off Lake Erie... A westerly flow will focus lake effect snow across the western Southern Tier this morning. Surface high pressure across the Gulf Coast states will nose northward into the Ohio Valley and snow will become weak and diminish by this evening. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is expected today, with the highest amounts across southwest Chautauqua County. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today. Winds will remain gusty today, with blowing and drifting snow in lake effect areas. KEY MESSAGE 3...A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend. Later this week and during the upcoming weekend a broad...but gradually flattening upper level ridge will remain in place over the Desert Southwest...while a broad/low amplitude upper level trough will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Between Thursday and Saturday a few weak/progressive shortwave disturbances and associated surface lows will ripple through the base of the larger- scale mean trough and bring periodic chances for some light precipitation to our region. With respect to ptype...marginal thermal profiles should support more of a a rain/snow mix initially...with snow more common at night/across the higher terrain and rain more common by day/across the lower elevations. By later in the weekend a somewhat stronger surface low may enter our region. Depending upon its eventual track and strength (both of which remain in question at this vantage point)...this could bring either a rain/snow mix or predominantly rain on its front side... followed by a return to seasonably colder air and a few snow showers early next week. Marine A strong southwest-west wind will continue on the Lakes this morning. Gale force is expected to continue through this morning, with gale force lingering through this afternoon across the eastern end of Lake Ontario. Winds will diminish through mid-week bringing a period of light winds and small waves. Ice on Lake Erie has retracted to now just along the Erie county shoreline. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Wind Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8am EDT Wednesday for NYZ005- 006. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8pm EDT this evening for NYZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NYZ019- 020. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 8am EDT this morning for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 11am EDT this morning for LOZ042-062. Gale Warning until 7pm EDT this evening for LOZ043>045- 063>065. |
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