Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ062 Forecast Issued: 617 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2022

Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots. Periods Of Rain From Late Morning On. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Periods Of Rain Through The Early Overnight, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Late. Waves 3 To 5 Feet.
Monday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Monday Night...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers Tuesday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 30 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 7 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet.
Thursday...West Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day. Waves 7 To 11 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
616am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022

Synopsis
Low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes today before exiting across New England later tonight. Periods of rain will overspread the area from southwest to northeast today, then continue through tonight before tapering off Monday morning. The rain may end as a little wet snow across higher terrain, but little or no accumulation is expected. Dry weather will return Monday afternoon through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area.

Near Term - Through Monday
IR satellite showing a shield of dense cirrus across the entire region, with the leading edge of rain advancing northeast across Ohio and into western PA early this morning.

A sharp mid level shortwave will move from the Ohio Valley this morning to NY/PA by this evening before reaching New England overnight. A surface low will track from Indiana this morning to directly over Western NY this evening before exiting across New England overnight. This system has captured a plume of respectable moisture by late November standards, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values rising to a little over 1.0" today.

An initial push of moisture transport and isentropic upglide on the nose of a 50 knot low level jet will allow periods of rain to develop from southwest to northeast today. The rain will arrive in the western Southern Tier early to mid morning, then reach the Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley mid to late morning, before moving into the North Country early to mid afternoon. Periods of rain will continue through the afternoon and evening supported by a second round of forcing from DPVA ahead of the trough and a coupled upper level jet structure. A southwest to northeast oriented frontal zone will also tighten as the surface low moves along it, enhancing frontogenesis and deformation along and north of the frontal zone.

The widespread rain will start to taper off later tonight, although moist low level northwest flow will result in terrain forced upslope showers and/or drizzle overnight through Monday morning. Surface and column temperatures may become just cold enough to allow a little wet snow to mix in across high terrain late tonight and Monday morning, but little or no accumulation is expected. Low stratus may intersect the terrain at times tonight through Monday morning with some patchy hilltop fog.

Upslope rain/wet snow showers will taper off Monday morning and should end completely across higher terrain by midday. Low level northwest upslope flow and the low November sun angle will make any appreciable clearing difficult Monday, with clouds lasting most, if not all of the day.

Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
A Colorado low will move into the Central Plains Monday night while a ridge builds over the Northeast U.S. The low will then make a turn and track northeast reaching the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday night. Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will bring a period of dry weather across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night through the first half of Tuesday night. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, low 20s across the North Country Monday night. Seasonable weather Tuesday with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s.

The pressure gradient begins to tighten over the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday night. Model suites have been consistent that the aforementioned surface low will move into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night. Current 00z guidance takes the low over Lake Superior by 6z. A strong cold front will trail from the surface low and approach the eastern Great lakes overnight. Moisture increases with a 40-50kt low level jet reaching the region late Tuesday night. The bulk of these strong winds will stay elevated as a strong inversion is in place overnight. Showers will also be moving into western NY during this time. A caveat will be the potential for strong downslope winds along the Chautauqua Ridge into southern Erie county and across the northern Tug Hill region into Wednesday morning.

The cold front will likely reach far western NY Wednesday afternoon. The low will continue to deepen as it tracks northeast towards James Bay Wednesday. Showers will be ongoing ahead of the front through the morning and then a line of heavier showers are possible along the front as it plows across the region Wednesday afternoon. Even with showers and clouds around, temperatures will still get into the upper 50s Wednesday. Strong pressure rises behind the front and aligned strong low-level winds will produce sufficient mixing of strong winds to the surface. While a few factors remain unclear, wind gusts up to 50 mph are likely with the potential for stronger wind gusts northeast of the Lakes into Wednesday night. Strong cold air advection will take place behind the front and continue through Wednesday night. The cooler airmass and westerly to northwesterly flow will lead to lake effect rain and snow showers becoming snow showers by Thursday morning. Gusty winds will continue Wednesday night. Lows will fall to the mid to upper 20s by Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong surface high over the Plains will track east Thursday and Friday. A westerly to northwesterly flow will continue across the region Thursday. Lake effect snow showers will likely be ongoing early Thursday east of the Lakes. Drier air returns later Thursday and lake showers will come to an end by Friday. Chilly Thursday with highs in the 30s.

The strong high will move to the south Friday into Saturday. Dry weather with day to day warming during this time frame.

Marine
Low pressure will move almost directly over the eastern Great Lakes this evening. East winds will briefly increase this afternoon and early evening on Lake Ontario, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions on western Lake Ontario. Winds will then become northwest tonight behind the departing low, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions on all of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Winds will quickly diminish Monday afternoon and Monday night as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

A stronger low will move from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday to Quebec Thursday. This system will produce high end Small Craft Advisory conditions at a minimum, with some potential for gales on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario late Wednesday through Thursday.

Hydrology
There is a limited/low risk for minor poor drainage flooding as well as minor flooding along the Buffalo Creeks today into Monday. It should be emphasized that while minor flooding is possible, impacts will be very limited if flooding does materialize given the relatively modest rainfall. Overall, the flood risk continues to look to minimal to justify a Flood Watch.

A significant portion of the snowpack from historic lake effect snows last weekend has melted, with most of the region now back to bare ground except for the hardest hit areas. Even in these areas, snow depth has decreased significantly and a notable portion of the snow water equivalent (SWE) in the snow has been released. There is still enough SWE left to give some concern across the Buffalo Southtowns and Buffalo area creek basins.

Rainfall amounts in the Buffalo Creeks basin will most likely be around 0.5". Above freezing temperatures will also continue to gradually melt the remaining snow pack. Latest river forecasts take these factors into account, and suggest that some creeks are likely to reach or approach action stage Sunday into Monday. This includes Cazenovia, Buffalo, Cayuga, and Ellicott Creeks. It's possible that one or more of these creeks will approach minor flood stage, but this would likely require rainfall amounts to exceed three-quarters of an inch. Even so, the impacts at minor flood stage are limited to agricultural and park land, and the risk of this happening remains well below 50 percent.

In addition to high flows on the creeks, there also may be some minor poor drainage flooding in streets, especially where snowbanks are blocking drainage structures.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 4am EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 10 am EST Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 1pm EST Monday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 10am EST Monday for LOZ045.

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