Lake Ontario - Open Waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Flurries Late This Morning. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Rain Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Rain. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. Rain. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...West Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day. Waves 5 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 232pm EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Synopsis High pressure centered just north of the region will slide into New England tonight will maintain dry weather through Sunday morning. Unsettled weather will return Sunday afternoon and last into Monday morning as the next system moves in from the west bringing light rain and some snow and possible sleet, but only minor snow accumulations are expected. Near Term - Through Tonight Dry weather will persist tonight, however with high pressure exiting across New England, high clouds associated with the next system will increase from the west. With warm advection in place, lows tonight will not be as cold as this past morning, with the exception of the North Country as surface high pressure will keep clouds and winds at bay a bit longer supporting ample radiational cooling. The coldest temperatures tonight will lie across the North Country with lows in the single digits or colder, with temperatures elsewhere in the teens to lower 20s. Short Term - Sunday Through Tuesday A compact...slowly weakening shortwave trough centered near Chicago at the start of Sunday morning will continue to steadily make its way eastward through the course of Sunday and Sunday night...with this feature reaching central Lake Erie by Sunday evening...before sliding eastward along or near the NY/PA border Sunday night. Increasing DCVA/moisture attendant to this feature along with added lift along the nose of an associated low level jet will bring a round of light precipitation to our area during this time frame... with chances/coverage peaking sometime between late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening...then quickly waning from west to east through the second half of Sunday night as drying aloft and subsidence overspread the area in the wake of the shortwave. With the track of this system having shifted a little bit further south in the guidance since this time yesterday...have nudged the associated area of likely to categorical Probability of Precipitation a little further southward with this package...and have correspondingly also aimed a little slower with the arrival/faster with the departure of its precip. Overall... liquid-equivalent precipitation amounts from this system appear to range from a few hundredths across portions of the North Country to one to two tenths of an inch across the Southern Tier...which will lie closest to the track of the wave and the better forcing. As was the case yesterday...the biggest problem with this system remains precipitation type...with mixed precipitation remaining a possibility given marginal low-level thermal profiles. While an initial tongue of marginally above-freezing air aloft should be in place across western New York at the start of Sunday morning...this should get eroded away as we push through the day and profiles cool due to both the approach of the shortwave and evaporational cooling...as the leading edge of the precipitation encounters an initially dry antecedent airmass at the lower levels. This should help to eliminate this layer of above-freezing air aloft until sometime Sunday evening...when warmer air aloft should begin to spread back into far western New York again just as the precipitation is winding down. The exact timing of the precipitation onset and the initial breakdown of the warm tongue aloft will be key to determining the precipitation type(s) we'll experience during Sunday and Sunday evening...as will the rate at which surface temperatures climb out ahead of the precipitation during Sunday. Given the presence of an increasingly south- southeasterly to southerly boundary layer flow...feel that some of the colder/more aggressive guidance with respect to mixed precipitation potential (in particular freezing rain) is overdone in this regard...particularly across our lower elevations where downsloping should help to give surface temps an added boost. With this in mind...feel that our lower elevations should see mainly rain on Sunday...with cooling of the column perhaps allowing some snow to mix in at the onset and again later in the day. Meanwhile across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes...somewhat colder boundary layer temps initially should allow for more in the way of just plain snow...with some rain/sleet perhaps mixed in right at or shortly after the onset of the precipitation. If a brief period of freezing rain were to occur...this greatest chance of this would lie across the higher terrain of far southwestern New York between later Sunday morning into midday/early Sunday afternoon...however this would likely be very limited in scope...with confidence in this actually occurring remaining on the low side. By Sunday evening the temporary cooling of the column that took place during Sunday should allow for more of a rain/snow/sleet mix across the lower elevations of far western New York...while mainly snow should be found from the higher terrain of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes northeastward across the North Country. As we push through the night...the precipitation will wind down from west to east with the departure of the shortwave. As this occurs...warm advection should allow the precipitation to transition back to rain across the lower elevations right as it winds down...while mixing with sleet/rain again across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. With all of the above being said...total snow amounts through Sunday night will be on the light side...with these ranging from little or nothing across the lower elevations of far western New York...to up to an inch or so across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier... interior Finger Lakes...and the southern Tug Hill region. By Monday morning this system will be sliding off to our east...with any lingering spotty light precipitation across our southeastern periphery ending early in the day. A rough 6 to 9-hour period of mainly dry weather will then work across our area from west to east in tandem with shortwave ridging and drier air aloft...with this primarily occurring between the morning and early afternoon hours across far western New York...and a few hours later for points further east. Ongoing warm air advection and increasing southerly flow during this time frame will allow temps to surge into the lower to mid 40s across the higher terrain and into the upper 40s across the lower elevations... with downsloping effects possibly even allowing areas from the Lake Erie shoreline northeastward to Buffalo to reach or break the 50 degree mark. Thus...by the time stacked low pressure over western Ontario pushes its warm front into our region later in the day...any precipitation associated with it will be in the form of just plain rain. We can then expect fairly widespread rain to ensue for at least the first half to two thirds of Monday night as the aforementioned low swings its attendant warm and cold fronts eastward across our region in fairly short order...with the rain then tapering off later in the night across western New York following the passage of the trailing cold front. Basin average rainfall amounts from this system continue to look to be on the order of a quarter to a half inch...and even when coupled with snowmelt...current river ensemble forecasts suggest that this will likely just lead to some within-bank rises on area waterways. By Tuesday morning this system's cold front will have departed off to our east...with a brisk cyclonic westerly flow of colder air predominating across our region in its wake. As this airmass will not really be all that cold (850 mb temps falling to between -4C and -7C)...merely expect some additional orographically-driven rain and snow showers across the higher terrain east of both lakes...with these more numerous east of Lake Ontario owing to deeper moisture/ slightly colder temperatures aloft there...thereby possibly allowing for some additional weak lake enhancement. Otherwise the day should be largely dry...with somewhat colder temps (highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s) and breezy to windy conditions Tuesday morning gradually subsiding as we push through the afternoon hours. Speaking of winds...as a final note it's worth mentioning that some guidance (most notably the NAM) is stronger with the low level wind field attendant to this latter system. While confidence in this is rather low this far out in advance...were this to come to fruition there could be some potential for some marginally advisory-worthy downslope southerly winds along the Lake Erie shoreline from later Monday afternoon into Monday evening...and then advisory-level gusts in the typical areas northeast/east of the lakes following the passage of the cold front later Monday night/Tuesday morning. This will be something to keep an eye on as this time frame draws closer Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday The pattern remains progressive with multiple shortwave troughs moving through the eastern Great Lakes region through the start of next weekend. Mild conditions will turn colder by the end of the weekend with the potential for accumulating snowfall by the weekend. Surface high pressure will approach the forecast area from the south and any ongoing upslope/lake-enhanced rain or snow showers east of the Lakes will end Tuesday night. The high will move off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday and a return flow will bring warmer air into the region. A trough will dig into the Great Lakes region while a fast moving southern stream system crosses the southern Plains. Model guidance shows the potential for these two systems to phase near or east of the forecast area. A widespread mix of rain and snow is possible through Wednesday night. Colder air will filter into the eastern Great Lakes region behind this system. Lake effect snow showers are possible behind this system but they will likely be short-lived. Ensemble members show another trough digging into the eastern Great Lakes region Friday and Saturday. Lower heigheights and cold air supports the potential for accumulating lake effect snow Friday through Saturday, however confidence is low due to the model spread in available synoptic moisture. As noted above, temperatures will begin mild and above normal on Wednesday then fall to below normal Thursday through Saturday. Marine Surface high pressure over the area will exit across New England into the Gulf of Maine through tonight, resulting in gentle to moderate southeasterlies. Fresh southeasterlies will be in place Sunday as a warm front approaches. The warm front will move across the lower Great Lakes Monday, allowing winds to veer more southerly and freshen to 15-20 knots with the highest waves directed into Canadian waters. A cold front will sweep across the lower Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday, with winds veering to west- southwest and increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Small craft headlines will be needed during this time frame, before subsiding by Wednesday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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