Lake Ontario - Open Waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
|Overnight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 3 To 6 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Thursday Night. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers During The Day, Then Showers Likely Friday Night. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Showers Likely. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1022pm EDT Monday Jun 21 2021
A cold front will continue to cross the region late this evening through tonight, which will give way to notably cooler and less humid conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. The upcoming spell of fair dry weather will persist through much of the work week before fairly widespread showers for the upcoming weekend.
Near Term - Through Tuesday Night
Storms have moved east of the region and are currently exiting the eastern border of New York State, that being said the severe threat has ended. A cold front will continue to cross the region this evening and tonight. Notably cooler and less humid air will charge into the region overnight with temps averaging 10 to 15 deg Fahrenheit lower than those from last (Sun) night. Lows will range from the 40s in the Southern Tier and on the Tug to 50-55 elsewhere.
Unseasonably cool air will be in place across our region on Tuesday with H85 temps in the vcnty of +2C. Any breaks in the cloud cover will just yield to 'self destruct sunshine' during the early afternoon...then true clearing will become established as drier air below H7 mixes during the mid and late afternoon. Highs will only be int he low to mid 60s...with some of the higher terrain not breaking out of the 50s. These readings will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal during the highest sun angles of the year.
Fair chilly weather can be expected Tuesday night as high pressure will pass to our south. Mins will be in the 40s away from the lakes... with some 30s possible in the colder Srn Tier valleys.
Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
Wednesday, surface high pressure slowly drifts to our south and then off the Northeast coast Wednesday night. A weak shortwave looks to pass over southern Lake Ontario sometime Wednesday morning, which may bring enough of a small uptick in moisture to bring a couple of weak pop-up showers to the area. Given that this feature looks fairly muted and the airmass over the region will be mostly dry, have added only slight chance Probability of Precipitation for southern Lake Ontario Wednesday morning. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend will return as southwesterly flow develops on the northwestern peripheral of the high. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s Wednesday, with mid 60s up on the Tug Hill.
High pressure and weak upper level ridging continues to pull away from the New England coast Thursday as dry conditions persist. With the region closer to the western edge of the surface high, strengthening southerly flow will allow the warming trend to continue. Highs across the area will generally settle in the mid to upper 70s, with mid 80s across the Lake Plains owed to weak downslope flow off the higher terrain. Shower chances will slowly increase from west to east in the second half of Thursday night ahead of a trough axis stemming from a closed low over Georgian Bay, though the vast majority of the night should remain dry. Increasing warm air advection, cloud cover, and continued downslope flow will help moderate overnight temperatures in some areas. Lows will dip into the mid to low 60s on the lower terrain south of the lakes, with mid 50s elsewhere.
Long Term - Friday Through Monday
The next upper level trough will drop across the Great Lakes and the Northeast Friday through Monday, all the while a few shortwaves will also rotate through. As it stands currently, the ridge exiting east aloft Friday will keep the majority of the area dry. However, a cold front associated with the upper level trough aloft over the Great Lakes will continue to cross the Great Lakes before entering Western New York late Friday night into Saturday. Thus, expect showers and thunderstorms to sweep across the area from west to east overnight Friday through Saturday. Model guidances continue to progress the trough and frontal zone slowly with its moisture being fed from the Gulf of Mexico due to the southwesterly winds. This will bring the much needed rain to the area.
Looking further ahead, model guidance packages continue to push through a few more shortwaves while the trough is overhead. As such, chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.
A cold front will continue to cross Lake Ontario this evening through tonight. West winds will move across the lakes. Small Craft Advisories across Lake Erie will expire tonight and continue on Lake Ontario into Tuesday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6am EDT Tuesday for NYZ003>007. Beach Hazards Statement until 2am EDT Tuesday for NYZ001-002. Beach Hazards Statement until 1am EDT Tuesday for NYZ019-085.
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Tuesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Tuesday for LOZ045.