Lake Ontario - Open Waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Light And Variable. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...Light And Variable Winds Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast Less Than 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
656pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
The dry holiday weekend continues! Temperatures will be a bit higher on Independence Day with highs mostly in the low 80s, and there will be some passing clouds. The next chance for precipitation arrives Monday night or Tuesday, along with the chance for thunderstorms.
Near Term - Through Monday
Dry weather continues this evening with weak high rises aloft as a broad upper level ridge moves slowly east from the Plains. Its surface high should be overhead by Monday morning. This pattern favors another night of local interior valley fog, although the T-Td spread should be a little higher when compared to the previous 24 hours. Local mesoscale factors may overcome this though, so will keep some patchy fog in, but just in the most likely valleys within Cattaraugus County. All other areas should see clear skies or passing high cirrus.
For Independence Day, there are a few model runs that spit out some precipitation toward the St Lawrence River in the afternoon, but other than that, the weather continues to look great. Will continue to forecast dry weather but with slightly higher daytime highs from weak warm air advection from the SW.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
There looks to be a good chance that dry weather will continue through Monday evening as high pressure lingers over the Mid Atlantic region.
There is general model agreement that precipitation chances will increase overnight Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Upscale growth of the convection across the Upper Great Lakes will result in a lead mid level short wave impulse advancing into the region. The interaction of this impulse with a weak frontal boundary across the area will be enough to support fairly widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms. Moisture profiles improve enough for some concern for locally heavy rainfall. Severe risk will depend greatly on amount of recover during Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
A few showers may linger Tuesday night and early Wednesday before the front completely clears the area. Once the front moves through, a push of cooler/drier air moves south out of Canada and into the eastern Great Lakes and New England.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Thursday and Friday the frontal boundary that crossed our region earlier in the week will be lurking not too far to our south across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states...while broad upper level troughing will persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Multiple weak shortwave impulses sliding southeastward through the larger-scale upper trough will periodically interact with this boundary and could produce some scattered convection at times... though timing and placing such activity remains problematic due to the inherent difficulty the model guidance has in resolving the responsible impulses at this time range. Consequently...for now will continue to keep no more than 20-30 Probability of Precipitation for showers/storms in the forecast through the end of the work week. After that time... Canadian high pressure still looks to ridge into our region and bring a return to fair dry weather areawide for most if not all of next weekend.
Otherwise...temperatures will remain seasonable throughout this period with daily highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s...and nightly lows mostly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the remainder of the Independence Day holiday weekend. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories