Lake Ontario - Open Waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
| Overnight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Late In The Morning. Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Increasing To 30 Knots. Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 8 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Morning, Then Rain Showers Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 8 To 12 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 15 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain And Snow Showers Likely. Waves 6 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West 15 To 25 Knots. Snow Showers Likely With A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 6 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139am EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Synopsis Low pressure will pass just north of the area this afternoon through tonight, with rain quickly developing from west to east this afternoon. The rain will taper off later this evening following the passage of a cold front. The low will continue to strengthen over New England tonight through Sunday, producing gusty winds across the eastern Great Lakes. Colder air behind the system will also bring lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday through Monday, and some upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with light to locally moderate accumulations. Near Term - Through Tonight Some patchy fog will continue through daybreak, mainly across the Niagara Frontier. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will thicken and lower from west to east through the morning hours as warm advection quickly increases ahead of the next system. A mid level trough will rapidly sharpen and dig across Ontario and Quebec this afternoon through tonight, with a deepening surface low passing just north of the region. DPVA/height falls ahead of the sharp trough will combine with left exit region upper level jet support to bring a period of large scale ascent this afternoon and evening. Increasing moisture transport in the low levels will accompany a brief period of isentropic upglide ahead of a narrow thermal ridge, quickly followed by convergence along a strengthening cold front. Expect rain to rapidly expand in coverage across the area from midday through mid afternoon. An isolated weak thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out given the strong dynamics and some limited instability, but coverage of thunder will remain sparse. The widespread rain will quickly taper off from west to east later this evening following the passage of the surface cold front. This will be followed by a brief break of mainly dry weather, with the possible exception of some lingering upslope showers across higher terrain. Colder air will pour back into the Great Lakes overnight behind the departing system, with lake effect showers starting to increase in coverage southeast of the lakes toward Sunday morning. Precip type will be all liquid through most of the night, but some wet snow will start to mix in just before daybreak across higher terrain. The rapidly deepening low over New England and the lower Saint Lawrence Valley overnight will force winds to quickly increase across the eastern Great Lakes. Expect gusts of 25-35 mph areawide overnight, and 40-45 mph along the lakeshores. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night The next mid-level low will dive southeast across Manitoba and Ontario towards northern New York Sunday, before deepening as it pulls northeast across New England Monday. Meanwhile at the surface, its attendant low will be in the midst of exiting northeast across New England Sunday morning. In the wake of the exiting surface low, cold air will advect into the region under northwest flow, supporting temperatures at 850mb to drop from -5C to -10C by Sunday night and Monday morning. With the exiting surface low and the colder air advecting into the region, widespread precipitation will become lake enhanced Sunday morning and transition towards pure lake effect Sunday afternoon and evening. Under the cold air advection regime, precipitation will gradually shift from rain to snow, from the higher terrain to the lower elevations throughout the day. Lake effect bands will become better developed Sunday afternoon/evening through Sunday night as lake induced equilibrium levels rise up around 10k feet and the northwest flow will support lake connections with the Georgian Bay and Lake Huron. Snow accumulations of a few inches will be possible east and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, but forecast uncertainty is medium at this time as guidance continues to depict moving lake effect bands. The greatest snow amounts can be expected over the higher terrain south of Buffalo where a better upstream connection is also possible with Lake Huron and even Lake Superior. Lake effect will continue Monday and Monday night, as a shortwave trough passes across the region. Lake snows will linger southeast of Lake Ontario due to the closer proximity of the exiting trough as the better fetch off of Lake Ontario. An additional few inches of snow will be possible Monday, but will be limited due to marginal daytime temperatures, causing some snow to change over to rain across the lower elevations. Otherwise, expect increasing northwest winds on Sunday with gusts up to 35mph at times. The windiest locations will be better focused closer to the lakeshores. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Deep mid-level troughing across the Northeast will pull northeast into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday, supporting troughing to pull away from the region and ridging to build in midweek. Lake effect showers will continue Tuesday as yet another weak shortwave trough passes across the region. Lake effect snow showers Tuesday will gradually diminish, although a few rain/wet snow showers may persist east/southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday through early Wednesday. As ridging builds east mid-week, high pressure will slide across the Great Lakes supporting a brief period of dry weather. Model guidance continues to be diverged with the track and timing of the next mid- level trough and attendant surface low moves out of the Southern Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances will gradually increase from south to north starting Thursday and persist through Friday. While timing and track of this system continues to remain diverged between guidance runs and packages, there is confidence that this system will support mainly rain to start with the trough advecting warm lower Mississippi Valley air into the region. Marine Deepening low pressure will pass just north of Lake Ontario this afternoon through tonight, with this low then deepening further over New England Sunday before reaching the Canadian Maritimes Monday. Southerly winds will begin to increase from west to east today, with winds then veering to the WNW and ramping up significantly tonight through Sunday. Lower end gales are likely on Lake Ontario late tonight through Sunday night, with high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie. Elevated winds and high end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on both lakes Monday before high pressure begins to build into the Great Lakes Tuesday with diminishing winds. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 1pm EST Monday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Gale Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night for LOZ042>045-062>065. |
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