Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers Late This Evening. Snow And Rain Showers After Midnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Monday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Rain Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday Night...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Overnight. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Snow Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Snow Showers Likely With A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Snow Showers Likely Overnight. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet, Then Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Thursday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Friday Night. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 341pm EDT Sunday Mar 23 2025 Synopsis Unsettled weather will return to the region tonight as low pressure moves from the central Great Lakes to southern Quebec by Monday night, bringing mixed precipitation at times along with gusty winds. The cooler, unsettled pattern will persist through at least Wednesday before drying out Wednesday night. Near Term - Through Monday Quiet weather through the remainder of the afternoon with thickening high cloud cover as high pressure ridging over the forecast area migrates east to New England and Quebec. Conditions will become much more unsettled for the rest of the period as an amplifying mid-level trough digs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will force a deepening surface low moving into the Upper Midwest eastward across the central/upper Great Lakes, with a 50-60kt southerly LLJ racing out ahead along the system's main warm front. The increasing moisture advection and isentropic lift will force a round of widespread showers into the region from the southwest this evening. Temperatures are on the chilly side late this afternoon and will likely fall a few degrees before the stronger WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) kicks in overnight. This should support a mixture of rain and wet snow in most areas, with snow more heavily favored across the higher terrain areas, before precipitation changes over to rain and tapers off in coverage as the dry slot works in. The sunshine and above freezing temps today with the changeover to rain should greatly mitigate the potential for snow to stick or cause any appreciable impacts across WNY. The same cannot necessarily be said for the eastern Lake Ontario region where temps remained largely subfreezing and where the incoming warmer airmass will struggle to reach tonight. Here thermal profiles indicate some patchy freezing rain may move through late tonight into early Monday morning, in addition to some minor snow accumulations. The latter should total less than 1" in most areas, though 1-2" could fall across the higher elevations of the Tug. To cover this wintry mix potential, have issued a low-end Winter Weather Advisory for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego counties for late tonight through early Monday morning. Other than helping bring the messy precipitation tonight, the strong overhead jet could also lead to a brief period of gusty downslope winds tonight. Peak gusts around 40mph will be possible in the favored areas off the higher terrain south of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. The surface low will weaken to around 1000mb on Monday as it moves from the upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec. The system's dry slot will continue to move east through the forecast area with just a few scattered showers possible across WNY in the morning. Some mixed precipitation could linger east of Lake Ontario in the morning before the eventual changeover to plain rain. Additional synoptic moisture and forcing will then move back in from the west ahead of an occluded front, causing shower coverage to increase again though mainly in the form of plain rain. The higher impact feature of note during the day will be the strengthening southwesterly low-level wind field just out ahead of the deeper Cold Air Advection behind the front. 50kts winds at 925mb should manage to at least partially mix down on the leeward side of Lake Erie, likely bringing gusts of 45-50mph down to the surface across the Niagara Frontier. Still some uncertainty here in how quickly gusts ramp up and down on Monday, though the peak gusts are generally expected in the afternoon before the main jet weakens and begins moving further inland with the front. As confidence in these gusty winds continues to increase, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the the Niagara Frontier for Monday. Highs in the mid 40s and 50s expected on Monday, before the colder air begins pouring in from the west in the afternoon. This could cause some of the showers east of the lakes to again mix with wet snow by the early evening. Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night A deep longwave trough over eastern North America will maintain chilly and unsettled weather through the middle of the week, with below average temperatures and frequent chances of wet snow and rain showers. Monday night through Tuesday, ongoing cold advection will bring a more favorable lake effect environment overnight as lake induced instability grows. Moist, cyclonic westerly flow will support a lake response east of Lake Ontario, with a few inches of accumulation likely across the Tug Hill Plateau. Moisture and instability will be less favorable over Lake Erie, but nonetheless, the persistent cold westerly upslope flow should support at least a few light snow showers across the higher terrain inland from the lake, with minor accumulations. Outside of the lake effect areas, a few spotty light rain/snow showers can be expected. Tuesday afternoon, the influence of the lakes will likely flip with strong March diurnal heating, which often results in deeper mixing over the land than the lakes during peak heating. This will result in growing stable lake shadows over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a band of convergence zone rain/snow showers along the northern edge of the Lake Erie breeze from the Niagara Peninsula east across the Niagara Frontier to at least Rochester, and possibly as far east as the southern Tug Hill region. Tuesday night through Wednesday, the pool of coldest air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The stable lake shadows from Tuesday afternoon will flip back to unstable lakes later Tuesday evening. Moist, cyclonic flow will continue to support the chance of a few snow showers, especially east/southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and across higher terrain. Any accumulations will be spotty and minor. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley later Wednesday night, with any lingering snow showers coming to an end. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday Shower potential will start to increase through the day on Thursday as a weak cold front drops across the region, extending south from a surface low tracking out of Ontario and across Quebec. Precipitation should fall in the form of rain for most areas, with some snow mixing in over the higher terrain. Guidance is trending drier with the precipitation for the later portion of the work week. The cold front with the system on Thursday looks like it may stall over/near the area. If this occurs then the potential for showers will continue until the next upstream wave pushes the front back north, this time as a warm front. This looks like it will happen either late Friday or during the day on Saturday. There is still plenty of uncertainty starting Friday. Showers will increase in coverage by later Friday evening as a shortwave trough approaches and the warm front tracks north over the area. Shower potential will continue through the day on Saturday, and increase late Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. This will occur as a deep trough over the central portion of the CONUS develops a large lee surface low east of the Rockies on Saturday. There is still some uncertainty among guidance for the track of this large surface low, but if it tracks north of or near the WNY and North Central NY area there will be an increased potential for rain on Sunday and into the new work week next week. Temperatures for the long term period will be highly dependent on the track of the different surface lows and placement of frontal boundaries. Thursday and Friday temperatures will reach near normal values. By Saturday temperatures will warm some to near to a few degrees above normal. For Sunday, afternoon highs will reach 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most areas, but will be highly dependent on the track of the surface low developing over the central U.S. Marine Another strong low pressure system will move into the central Great Lakes tonight through Monday before weakening across southern Quebec Tuesday. This system will bring another period of higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Tuesday night. Southeast winds will quickly switch and increase to the southwest on Lake Erie tonight. Gale force gusts will be possible through Monday, though sustained gales are unlikely as the cold water temperatures and ice should help partially stabilize the environment over the lake. Lake levels will likely rise a few feet along the eastern Lake Erie shoreline tonight. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Wind Advisory from 8am to 10pm EDT Monday for NYZ001-002-010- 011. Winter Weather Advisory from 2am to 10am EDT Monday for NYZ006>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6am EDT Tuesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 2am EDT Wednesday for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory from 2am Monday to 5am EDT Wednesday for LOZ044-045. |
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