Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Lake Effect Showers With A Few Rumbles Of Thunder Possible, Then Lake Effect Showers Likely Late. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tonight...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Lake Effect Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 60 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 231pm EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Synopsis Some lighter lake effect rain showers will linger southeast and then south of the lakes through Saturday night and early Sunday...with more general scattered showers possible elsewhere both this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. High pressure will then provide us with mainly dry conditions from later Sunday through at least Tuesday. Otherwise...a persistent cool airmass will result in our temperatures continuing to run a bit below normal through at least the middle of next week. Near Term - Through Saturday In the wake of the upper level trough axis and an attendant vigorous shortwave...the low level flow has veered more to the west- northwest...which in turn has caused the Lake Ontario lake effect rain band to push southward across the south shore of the lake and weaken. Elsewhere...weaker lake effect showers off Lake Erie have transitioned into some scattered diurnally-driven showers with diurnal heating of our cool airmass...with the latter also giving rise to more of the same across the remainder of the area. This general trend will continue through the rest of the day...with the showers eventually becoming a bit more concentrated again across areas east-southeast of the lakes as diurnal influences wane and upstream lake connections begin to have more of an influence again. Tonight and Saturday morning...a continued cool cyclonic WNW/NW flow coupled with lake EQLs of 8-9 kft and possible upstream lake connections will keep scattered to numerous (albeit weaker) lake effect rain showers going southeast of the lakes...while any diurnally-driven showers fizzle out this evening. The most numerous lake effect showers will eventually settle across the southwestern half of Chautauqua county off Lake Erie...and from eastern Orleans and Monroe counties southeastward across Wayne and far northern Ontario counties off Lake Ontario. Otherwise...lows tonight will range from the lower 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 30s/around 40 across much of the lake plains. Saturday afternoon...the low level flow will veer a bit further to the northwest and north-northwest...and this coupled with renewed diurnal effects and the approach of another shortwave should result in the lake effect rain showers shifting southward while breaking up and becoming more diurnally-driven in nature again...with the bulk of the activity eventually focusing across the higher terrain south of the NYS Thruway by mid-late afternoon. As for temps...our continued cool airmass aloft will result another day of below average highs mainly ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Short Term - Saturday Night Through Monday Night An expansive surface based ridge will slowly pass to our north Saturday night and then settle across central Quebec Sunday while strengthening to 1036mb Monday. While a few lake induce showers will be possible, subsidence and drier air working in will promote mainly dry weather for much of the region. Given the chilly airmass in place (H850T's of -1C to -6C) highs on Sunday will only be found in the 40s to low 50s Surface high pressure centered over Quebec Monday will continue to support mainly dry weather. That said...E-ENE flow across the long axis of Lake Ontario may induce a shower or two. The greatest potential to see a shower would be for the far northern reaches of the Niagara Frontier closer to the lake shore. Otherwise...continued cool conditions across the eastern Great Lakes Monday with highs once again in the 40s to low 50s. Both Sunday night and Monday night will be quite cold with lows ranging from the low 30s near the lakes to the mid-upper 20s inland. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday The surface high to our north looks like it will 'keep' our region precipitation free Tuesday. After that...a closed mid-level low and its interaction with a potent shortwave diving through the broader trough will then determine precipitation chances (if any at all) Tuesday night and beyond. Given the 'large' differences in various guidance, have again made little to no changes from NBM output, although the greater chances for rain will come later in the week once the deeper Atlantic moisture arrives. Marine The westerly flow in between departing low pressure over northern Quebec and high pressure draped from the Upper Great Lakes to Lower Ohio Valley will remain elevated into early this evening...with rather choppy (but just below advisory) conditions continuing on the lakes through that time. High pressure gradually building over the region through the weekend will then bring a more substantial improvement to wind and wave action, though lake effect rain showers will remain possible through Sunday morning. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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