Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Showers This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 15 Knots. Mostly Cloudy In The Morning, Then Becoming Partly Sunny. Waves 6 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Rain And Snow Showers Overnight. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Rain And Snow Showers During The Day, Then Snow Showers Monday Night. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Tuesday...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest. Rain And Snow Showers. Waves 10 To 14 Feet Subsiding To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West To 30 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 9 To 12 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 15 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 643pm EST Fri Nov 7 2025 Synopsis A cold front will cross the area tonight, with scattered showers continuing through much of the night. Other than a few lingering light showers east of the lakes Saturday morning, high pressure will briefly build into the area providing a mainly dry and seasonably cool day. Another area of low pressure will then bring a return to more active weather later Saturday night and Sunday, with rain showers changing over to snow showers later Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a period of accumulating lake snows east and southeast of the lakes for the first portion of the new work week. Near Term - Through Saturday An area of low pressure just north of Georgian Bay will move into central Quebec overnight. An area of showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region will move east this evening, while scattered showers continue across western NY. The actual cold front will cross the area later tonight, with additional showers likely. However, deeper moisture will have moved east of the area, so expecting mainly scattered light showers through the overnight...with more numerous showers possible across areas downwind of the lakes and across upslope terrain areas. As the better forcing pushes east and weak high pressure over the upper Great Lakes tries to ridge southeast into our area, expect shower coverage to start to taper off late tonight. Other than a few lingering light showers east of the lakes Saturday morning, aforementioned high pressure building in from the upper Great Lakes will provide a mainly dry, but cool day. Short Term - Saturday Night Through Monday Night A closed mid-level low centered over northern Ontario, will allow a couple of shortwave troughs to rotate around it, with the second of the shortwaves being more potent and causing the mid-level low to elongate southward across the upper Great Lakes and push the trough axis further south across the Mississippi Valley. This trough/mid- level low will then dig southeast towards Indiana and Ohio through Sunday and Sunday night, before lifting northeast towards the lower Great Lakes and Northeast Monday and Monday night, and further north into eastern Canada Tuesday. Meanwhile, at the surface a clipper system will drop southeast across the upper Midwest Saturday night, reaching as far south as Indiana, before heading northeast across Pennsylvania and New York towards the Northeast Sunday through Monday and further northeast into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday. Looking further into the details, a warm front will approach New York State from the south Saturday night into Sunday, ushering in widespread rain showers to spread from south to north. Then, as the low rides further north across Pennsylvania and New York State, widespread showers will continue across the region Sunday, placing the deformation band across western New York. It is at this point in the forecast where forecast uncertainty is elevated as the track of the low continues to have model discrepancies. This not only impacts the placement of the heavier precipitation, but also the temperatures aloft. A western more track will favor a warmer solution supporting mostly rain. However, an eastern more track (such as having the low pass across eastern New York, will favor a cold air mass to arrive earlier, helping to transition rain over to snow. If this does come into fruition, an inch or two of snow accumulation would be possible, mainly accumulating on grassy or elevated surfaces. As of current, this forecast iteration favors a warmer solution, supporting mostly rain throughout Sunday. Colder air will then arrive Sunday evening and night, supporting a transition to a rain snow mix ahead of sunset and all snow there after. As the low exits northeast Sunday night, wrap around showers will become lake enhanced due to the quick shot of colder air (around -6C at 850mb) to advect into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will continue to tumble, reaching a minima of -10C at 850mb by Monday night where it will then remain through Tuesday. Overall, expect lake enhanced snow showers to transition to pure lake effect snow by Monday morning. Initially northwest flow Monday will back to westerly by Monday night and remain westerly through Tuesday, therefore expect tea kettle like snow bands (multiple bands of snow) southeast of Lakes Erie and Lake Ontario Monday, mainly impacting the Chautauqua Ridge and areas southeast of Lake Ontario from Rochester towards I-81. Bands will then shift northerly Monday evening to be east of both lakes due to the wind shift. Main areas of concern Monday night through Tuesday lies east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill and east of Lake Erie mainly across the Chautauqua Ridge. While snowfall accumulations should be LESS THAN WARNING AMOUNTS, multiple inches of snow is possible. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Deep troughing will remain overhead of much of the eastern half of the CONUS Tuesday through Friday, as yet another shortwave trough dives southeast across Ontario, Canada and pivots across the Great Lakes, resulting in another clipper like system to traverse the Great Lakes. This being said, another active week of weather looks to be gracing western and north central New York. Ongoing, lake effect precipitation Tuesday night will linger through Tuesday night, as the next system approaches the region, before being reinvigorated Wednesday with the passage of the next system and then lasting throughout the remainder of the week. Temperatures at 850mb will gradually warm up to -2C Wednesday, before tumbling back down towards -5/-6C Thursday and Friday. What this boils down to, is lake effect snow will transition to lake effect rain Wednesday due to the warming temperatures aloft. Another transition back to snow will be likely in the wake of the system later in the week. Marine Slowly deepening low pressure will make its way into central Quebec tonight. This has brought the next round of strong winds on the lakes with Small Craft Advisories in place as outlined below. South to southwest winds will veer west then northwest tonight, while also starting to weaken from west to east through the second half of tonight into early Saturday following the passage of this system's trailing cold front. Expect a brief window of lower winds and waves later Saturday and Saturday night, before east to northeast winds ramp up, with the next round of small craft headlines likely for at least some portions of both lakes starting on Sunday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Saturday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST Saturday for LOZ043>045. |
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