Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Patchy Fog Late This Evening. Rain Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Evening, Then Rain Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain Showers Late. Some Thunderstorms May Produce Gusty Winds. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast. A Chance Of Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 30 Knots. Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Friday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Friday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then Rain Showers Saturday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Northwest To 30 Knots. Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Sunday Night. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 227pm EDT Tuesday Mar 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a River Flood Warning for the Black River in Lewis County with a crest expected Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, minor changes to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through tonight with heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding. 2) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and this evening, with the primary risk being localized damaging winds. 3) Active weather will continue Thursday and through the KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through tonight with heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding. A brief period of mid-level drying moved into the eastern Great Lakes per latest GOES satellite imagery as the shortwave from this morning's storms moves across the northeast US. Late this afternoon and evening, low pressure will move east down a frontal zone, currently extending from southwest ON across Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill region. The front will sag south across the eastern Great Lakes tonight as a cold front. Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected later this afternoon and evening as large scale forcing and convergence increase just ahead of the surface low and associated mid level shortwave. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon with a weaker shortwave propagating ahead of the main feature. The greatest coverage of rain will be early this evening, with showers then gradually tapering off from north to south overnight as the cold front sags southward. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will peak at or a little above 1.25" this evening, which is close to 3 standard deviations above average for early spring. The combination of strong dynamics and quality moisture will continue to support heavy rainfall with the various clusters of showers and thunderstorms crossing the region through this evening. Latest RFC 1-hr Flash Flood Guidance suggests only 1" of rainfall will be capable of small stream flooding (~1.5" for 3-hr FFG) due to antecedent conditions. While there still remains model uncertainty on where the corridor of highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will fall, in general expecting rainfall amount of 0.50" to 1.50". Hi-res CAM ensembles (REFS & HREF) have been slightly shifting southward focusing in on the Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes region where localized amounts may exceed 2.0" if thunderstorms train over the same area. Minor flooding was reported in portions of Livingston and Ontario Co from this morning's rainfall, so any additional precipitation may exacerbate flooding concerns along already swollen creeks and streams. Details on ongoing river flood concerns can be found in the Hydro Discussion section below. KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and this evening, with the primary risk being localized damaging winds. After multiple rounds of thunderstorms across western NY earlier in the morning, we have reached the midday break ahead of the next round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Latest GOES imagery showed scattered high clouds, but breaks in the low-to-mid level clouds will allow for sufficient diurnal heating to begin destabilizing the boundary layer ahead of the next shortwave troughs approaching. Locally overhead however, billow clouds continue to suggest surface based convection in western NY remains capped at this time. While instability will be limited (SBCAPE < 1000 J/kg), strong synoptic scale forcing and strong shear (0-6 km ~ 40 kt) will support an increased chance of organized convection. Forcing for ascent will be strongest closer to the cold front this evening with the more robust shortwave producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, latest GOES satellite imagery shows a subtle shortwave crossing Lake Huron into southwest ON that will provide additional lift along with any lake breeze circulations that can develop by mid-afternoon for an earlier round of storms across western NY, especially extending into the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes region. The primary hazard will be localized damaging wind gusts, with the setup and CAM guidance suggesting the potential for upscale growth into bowing segments with both rounds of storms. Long and favorably curved hodographs are also forecast, with strong low level shear suggesting the potential for an isolated tornado or two in any discrete cells and possibly from a QLCS. KEY MESSAGE 3...Active weather will continue Thursday and through the weekend. Wednesday initial southward moving cold front will stall near the Mason Dixon line, while lingering a few showers over our region, mainly towards the NY/PA state line through Wednesday night. A cooler and drier airmass behind the front will settle southward from Canada. High temperatures south of Lake Ontario will be some 15 to 25 degrees lower Wednesday versus today. Cold, northerly flow will deepen the subfreezing airmass overnight for the North Country. Thursday this frontal boundary will once again lift northward across our region. There could be a little snow or wintry mix towards the North Country and SLV early Thursday morning before the frontal boundary, and its associated warmer airmass lifts through our entire region. Instability Thursday will not be as great as today...with MUCAPE values in the 250 to 750 J/KG, which is still plenty for at least a slight chance for thunderstorms across our region to go along with likely rain showers. A shortwave trough ejecting from the desert Southwest will bring a low pressure cutting through the Central Great Lakes, with a cold front swinging across our region Friday afternoon and night. A second, now PACNW shortwave trough will bring another slightly deepening storm system through the Great Lakes Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Modest instability ahead of both these late week cold fronts will continue the risk for thunder, while PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 1.25 to 1.50 will continue the risk for heavy rain, especially within any thunderstorms. Marine South of a stalled out frontal boundary...moderately brisk southwesterly winds will continue across Lake Erie at times into this evening. While this will produce choppy conditions...these are expected to remain a little below advisory levels. Meanwhile Lake Ontario will lie along/just to the north of this boundary...with lighter/weaker easterly to northeasterly flow lingering into early this evening. A few thunderstorms with locally higher winds and waves will also be possible across Lake Erie into this evening. Low pressure will then ride east along the frontal boundary and push it southeast across New York State tonight. This will bring a round of widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms...some of which could produce localized strong wind gusts and higher waves. Following the frontal passage winds will turn northwesterly and then northerly while diminishing to 15 knots or less late this evening and overnight...with generally light to modest northerlies expected across the region Wednesday. East-northeasterlies will then freshen across both lakes Wednesday night and Thursday out ahead of the next wave of low pressure...and will likely lead to a round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on Lake Ontario. Hydrology Afternoon update continue to suggest elevated flows expected along area creeks and streams after widespread overnight precipitation. A River Flood Warning has been issued for portions of the Black River downstream of Boonville for late tonight through Thursday with a crest expected on the higher end of Minor Flood Stage Wednesday afternoon. Additional forecast points in western NY are expected to briefly touch Minor Flood Stage early Wednesday morning including the Buffalo creeks, but for the time being decided to hold off on issuing any additional warnings until mid-afternoon convection takes shape. A look at the MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles suggests that the peaks in the rivers/creeks late this week and into the weekend with these subsequent periods of showers and thunderstorms will be slightly lower than the early-mid week peaks. We will need to watch the slower responding Tonawanda Creek and Black Rivers as mid week peak levels may run into the late week/weekend rain events. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NYZ001>008-010>014- 019>021-085. Marine None. |
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