Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Mostly Cloudy This Morning, Then Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.|
|Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet.|
|Friday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Overnight. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. Rain During The Day. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Sunday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
|Monday...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest And Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers Monday Night. Waves 7 To 10 Feet Building To 10 To 13 Feet, Then Subsiding To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 36 Degrees.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
728am EST Thu Feb 25 2021
Cold northwesterly flow will produce a few upslope/lake effect snow showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario this morning. Otherwise, high pressure will build across the area providing a mainly dry day, however temperatures will drop back below normal. A weak system will then bring the chance for light snow showers across the eastern Lake Ontario region tonight. After a dry end to the work week, another low pressure system will bring some rain and snow Saturday, however our region will become progressively milder as we head into the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A cold northwesterly flow (850Ts -10C to -12C) will be just marginally cold enough to produce some nuisance light upslope/lake effect snow showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario this morning. A cap below 5kft with NIL synoptic moisture available will keep any lake response minimal. Otherwise, high pressure ridging in from the west will provide a mainly dry day. It will be a much colder day with temperatures falling back below normal. Daytime highs will be in the 20s across the higher terrain, with mainly low 30s elsewhere.
An upper level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight, while its' surface reflection tracks just north of Lake Ontario into northern NY. The track of the system will allow for a some lake enhancement across areas east of Lake Ontario as well owed to westerly flow, while areas south of Lake Ontario should remain mainly dry. Snowfall amounts across areas east Lake Ontario will be light with generally less than an inch, with 1-2 inches possible across the Tug Hill. Otherwise, lows tonight will fall back into the teens to lower 20s.
Short Term - Friday Through Sunday
High pressure will slide off the New England coast on Friday. There may be some lingering lake effect clouds and light snow showers east of Lake Ontario early Friday morning, but skies will clear out nicely during the day. The sunshine will support warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 30s to around 40.
Dry weather will last through the first half of Friday night, then a warm front extending east from low pressure moving through the upper Great Lakes will move through the area late Friday night and Saturday morning. This front will produce a few hours with widespread precipitation late Friday night and Saturday morning. Forecast thermal profiles are marginally cold enough to support snow, with the forecast favoring mainly rain across the lake plains where southerly winds will result in downslope warming. Gusts of around 45 mph are possible off the Chautauqua Ridge. Expect at least some snow further inland, but amounts will be light, maybe an inch or two. Sleet is possible, but expect predominantly rain or snow. There is fairly good model agreement for this system, with mainly dry weather Saturday afternoon as the boundary exits to the east.
Weak high pressure will move across the region Saturday night with dry weather but perhaps some lingering cloud cover. Another warm front will approach the region as this high exits off the New England coast. This diffuse frontal boundary may produce some rain showers on Sunday, otherwise it will be warmer with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Wednesday
A cold front will cross the region Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Showers will be possible, but the best chance looks like it should be well north and south of the area, associated with the main low pressure to the north and another developing area of low pressure well south of the region.
A clipper should move through on Monday, bringing the potential for showers across the region. Following this passing clipper, cold air advection may be strong enough to cause some sub -10C 850H temperatures. Which would result in a weak lake response off of both lakes Monday night.
From Tuesday morning onward, guidance is in general agreement that high pressure will be in place for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Beyond that, guidance has greater spread in the forecast, with some guidance favoring the more southern stream to bring systems north vs other guidance that favors more of the northern stream and the potential for systems to drop out of Canada.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s for Monday. Tuesday looks like it will be the coldest day with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures will start to warm backup some for Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
WNW to NW winds will remain elevated over Lake Ontario through today as pressure gradient stays fairly tight between high pressure to the west and an area of low pressure exiting northern New England. Thus, have extended the Small Craft Advisories (SCA) for Lake Ontario through this afternoon for western zones, and through this evening for central and eastern zones.
Conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria overnight and Friday, before S winds freshen later Friday night bringing the possibility for the next round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EST this afternoon for LOZ042.