Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers This Morning. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers In The Morning. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Building To 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Snow And Rain Showers Likely Overnight. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain And Snow Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 38 Degrees.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334am EST Fri Jan 27 2023
Lake effect snow will linger east and northeast of the lakes today, before tapering off by this evening. A series of weak systems will cross the area this weekend through much of next week with frequent chances of snow, but with limited accumulation.
Near Term - Through Saturday
A shortwave and weak surface reflection will move across the area this morning. 850mb temps around -10C are just cold enough to support lake induced instability, especially with the moisture associated with the shortwave. Increasing southwesterly surface flow will shift to the south this afternoon which will cause lake effect bands to move northward and weaken during the day.
Off Lake Erie, radar shows a large area of lake effect snow centered across Erie County early this morning. Additional snow accumulations today will be on the light side (1 to 3 inches) but the band will be across the Buffalo metro area during the morning commute. The band will lift northward across Niagara County mid-morning, and dissipate this afternoon.
Off Lake Ontario, lake snow should become better organized with increasing moisture from the shortwave and a surface convergence boundary. Steadiest snows will focus across Oswego county early this morning before lifting northward across Jefferson county later this morning into the afternoon. Expecting an additional 1 to 3 inches from this band as well, with greatest amounts in Jefferson county including the Watertown area.
Lake effect snow will end this evening with the departure of the shortwave and associated moisture. However chances for snow showers will increase again late tonight into Saturday as low pressure passing by well to the north drags a cold front across the area. Accumulations will mainly be an inch or less, but greater accumulations are possible east of Lake Ontario where 2 to 4 inches is possible on the Tug Hill.
It will be breezy today into this evening, with southwest winds gusting to 30 mph. Winds will pick up more later tonight into Saturday as low pressure passes by to our west and north. The strongest winds will be early Saturday, east and northeast of the lakes where southerly winds will downslope and southwesterly winds will funnel across the lake plains. Gusts over 40 mph are possible before winds diminish Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures won't change much during the period with daytime highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s, but these will occur early this evening with temperatures actually rising later in the night.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Tuesday
There should be a break in precipitation the first half of Saturday night as surface high pressure makes a brief appearance across the eastern Great Lakes region. A broad trough will move across the Mid- Western states Sunday. A very cold air mass will move into the Northern Plains and lumber southeastward through into next work week. In the meantime, low pressure will develop along a stationary front across the Ohio Valley Saturday night and move into the eastern Great Lakes region late Saturday night through Sunday. The low is forecast to track over western and central NY or just to the north and widespread precipitation is expected. The type of precipitation is in question due to the track potentially stretched across the region. Snow, rain, and ice are all possible at this time. Low temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s Saturday night. High temperatures will may reach the mid to upper 30s even low 40s Sunday however, if the low tracks further south then high temperatures will be lower.
Cold air advection is expected behind the front Sunday night into Monday. Any precipitation will transition to snow with temperatures falling to the teens to low 20s. Dry air and marginal temperatures at 850mb will keep lake effect from starting behind the front. Another shortwave trough may approach the region Monday. Model guidance is in agreement that the previously mentioned cold air across the Upper Great Lakes will move into the eastern Great Lakes however, there remains question if a surface low develops on the cold front which impacts the coverage of snow from Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be plenty cold enough for lake effect processes which led to higher probability of snow east of the Lakes.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast uncertainty is high mid-week as a broad trough moves east across the Plains. A very strong upper level jet and thermal gradient will be in place east of the Mississippi. Model guidance differs in the potential for cyclogenesis and evolution of any waves along the thermal gradient. The chance for snow is low at this time but may increase in future model runs. There is higher confidence that a cold airmass will remain in place through Thursday night and if synoptic moisture is present, lake effect snow would be likely downwind of the Lakes. Temperatures will be below normal from Tuesday night through Thursday night.
Expect a prolonged period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie into the weekend. Winds will increase this morning as the pressure gradient tightens with surface high pressure exiting to the east. A fast moving cold front will bring another increase in winds later tonight and early Saturday, before winds diminish late Saturday and Saturday night.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11am EST this morning for NYZ012-085.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Saturday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Saturday for LOZ042>045.