Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain Late. |
| Mon...S Winds Around 20 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. Rain In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 402pm EDT Sunday Mar 23 2025 Synopsis A warm front will lift north into the region tonight followed closely behind by a cold front on Monday. There is a brief break on Tuesday before another system moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure then builds in for the end of the work week. Another low pressure system may approach the region in the weekend. Near Term - Through Monday Widespread precipitation is expected over the region tonight into Monday. For the most part, precipitation won't be impactful. However, a period of freezing rain in the southern Poconos could result in light ice accumulations there. Minor adjustments upward for total precipitation amounts, otherwise, no major changes with the afternoon forecast update. Timing: Through late this evening, expect dry conditions to continue, with increasing clouds. Warm front, and associated precipitation, won't move into most of our area until after midnight, though some light rain may start a few hours prior in portions of Delmarva and far southern PA. Precipitation should start very light as the main source of lift initially will be the warm front. After sunrise, main focus turns to the approaching cold front. Just ahead of the front, a band of more moderate intensity precipitation is expected, and the mode will be more showers vs the stratiform precipitation expected overnight. That band of rain should move off shore by very late in the afternoon. Precipitation Type: For most areas near and north of the I-78 corridor, precipitation may start as a rain/snow mix, but should change over to all rain by or just after sunrise. For higher terrain areas in the Southern Poconos however, precipitation may start as snow, but likely won't be warm enough at the surface by the time an elevated warm nose develops to see a clean change over to plain rain. Thus, expecting a period of freezing rain in portions of Carbon and Monroe Counties where a winter weather advisory remains in effect. This forecast is based on colder, short range/high res guidance which tends to do much better in these situations (with low level S or SE flow behind a warm front) than the coarser resolution guidance. For areas south of I-78, precipitation is expected to be all rain. Precipitation Amounts: Total precipitation amounts are expected to range from 0.2 to 0.75 inches. Those are low enough values (especially considering it should fall over a roughly 15 hour period) that flooding won't be a concern. The vast majority of those amounts will be falling as rain. That, plus the relatively warm ground temperatures, will limit any snow or ice accumulation in the areas that see wintry precip. Snow accumulations are expected to be near or below one half inch, and should quickly melt once there is a changeover to rain, so in many cases will melt before most people are awake. In Carbon and Monroe Counties, any ice accumulation amounts should be generally less than one tenth of an inch. Impacts: The main concern is slippery conditions, during the early to mid morning hours - including the Monday Morning commute. Overnight lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s, but temperatures throughout the period do look to creep up warmer towards daybreak Monday given the warm air advection from the warm front. Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday The beginning of the short term forecast period will be dry with temperatures near or a few degrees above normal. This will be thanks to a long-wave trough at the upper levels and a weak surface high moving eastward to across the southeastern United States keeping west-southwesterly flow across the region and minimizing Cold Air Advection behind the cold front Monday night. Lows Monday night are forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s and then warm into the mid 50s to near 60 daytime Tuesday. As the surface high shifts offshore Tuesday night, a new surface low develops as a piece of vorticity advects southeastward through the mid-level trough. The main forecast question is how far north will the developing low make it before passing offshore. Deterministic GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) keep the low suppressed and are drier while the NAM and GEM are further northwest bringing precipitation to most of the region. Temperatures Tuesday night do look to fall mainly into the mid 30s to low 40s, with low 30s near and north of I-78. As a result, any precipitation is expected to be mainly rain, but some snow mixed in north of I-78 remains possible. As the low departs on Wednesday, winds turn more northwesterly, bringing in colder air with highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday We'll start the long term with surface high pressure and dry conditions. A mid level short wave trough is expected to swing over New England Thursday into Friday, but the trough, and associated forcing should remain north of our region, keeping us dry. The next system we'll be watching is a closed low developing over the Plains late in the week. This system, if it progresses east fast enough could bring our region another chance for precipitation this weekend. There are considerable differences in timing though between different models, so for now, have stayed close to a blend of guidance. Marine Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through this evening. Late tonight however, winds will settle out of the SE and increase, resulting in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through at least mid day Monday, though elevated seas may linger on the coastal waters through most, if not all, of the day on Monday. Outlook... Monday night...Seas may linger near 5 feet offshore. Otherwise, sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditons with fair weather. Tuesday through Friday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 10am EDT Monday for PAZ054-055. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2pm EDT Monday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ453>455. |
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