Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then 3 To 5 Ft Late This Evening And Overnight. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft Early In The Morning, Then 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight. Rain.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas Around 3 Ft In The Morning, Then 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
927pm EST Thu Nov 21 2019
High pressure will move offshore overnight. Low pressure will pass from the Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes through late Friday pushing a cold front across our region on Friday. Low pressure will develop across the southern Appalachians and pass just to the south of the forecast area and offshore late Saturday into early Sunday. High pressure then returns into early next week then another system may potentially impact the region by the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Forecast is mainly in good shape this evening with only minor changes made for tonight. Temperatures will not fall much more tonight as mid-level cloud cover and ongoing warm air advection keep the lows above average. With a shortwave passing to our north, cannot rule out a couple of sprinkles through the next few hours, but by and large dry conditions will prevail tonight. I did adjust Probability of Precipitation upward for the daytime period Friday with this update. The trend towards more widespread showers for Friday, especially over the southern half of the area, seems to be holding this evening. It looks like a weak wave of shortwave energy coming out of the Midwest will provide a slight enhancement to the otherwise moisture starved front as it approaches. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast still looks light, under a quarter of an inch everywhere and under a tenth of an inch for most, greatest over southern NJ and Delmarva. Previous discussion follows.
The ridge of high pressure across the area this afternoon will slide offshore tonight. A continuation of fair weather is predicted for the overnight. High clouds over the area will continue to thicken up overnight and some lower clouds will be around by sunrise. Temperatures will be milder than last night with lows expected to be in the upper 30s/low 40s N/W and mid 40s across metro Philadelphia and much of Delmarva. Winds will be light from the S or SW overnight.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
Friday...Low pressure will be moving down the Saint Lawrence Valley Friday. An attached cold front will cross the area from NW to SE during the afternoon. The models have been varying quite a bit regarding how much organized precipitation will occur with the front. The better chances will be across Delmarva/ SE PA and Srn NJ. Slight chances will be across other areas. We haven't changed probability of precipitation too much, with mostly high chc, but some low likely probability of precipitation will be across southern DE. The previous cycles of the NAM were rather dry, but the 12Z came in with 1/4 inch qpf in many areas. This may be overdone, so I have kept my qpf forecast closer to 1/10th inch attm.
Like today, friday will be mild, prior to frontal passage. Highs will reach into the upper 50s or perhaps a few low 60s for Delmarva. Highs across the N/W areas will be in the low to mid 50s. These readings will be a little above normal for late November. Winds will be south to southwest increasing to 10 to 15 mph late.
Friday night...The cold front continues east of the region while high pressure builds in from the west. Clearing skies during the evening which will continue overnight. Northwest winds with some gusts to around 15-20 mph early then diminishing. Colder (than Thu night) with lows in the mid/upper 20s N/W and near freezing across the Delaware Valley and Delmarva.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
The main story early in this period will be the low pressure system still forecast to move through the area late Saturday into Sunday. To start the period early Saturday, ridge of high pressure will be located along the east coast with an area of low pressure associated with the southern stream over Tennessee. The day will get off to a mostly clear and chilly start however through the course of the day the high will move off the coast while low pressure approaches as it moves NE into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to skies becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon with rain likely developing towards the late afternoon / early evening time frame from SW to NE. Highs Saturday generally range from around 40 over the southern Poconos to the upper 40s over the Delmarva.
For Saturday night, aformentioned low moves NE into western PA driven by strong but progressive southern stream upper level wave. Forecast models also continue to indicate there will likely be at least some phasing with a northern stream wave dropping through the Great Lakes. Rain will become more widespread through Saturday evening with the tricky part of the forecast being Precip types over northern zones. Temperatures aloft will be above freezing with the strong warm air advection however there looks to be a low level layer near or below freezing over the north so we still think there will likely be some freezing rain over the southern Poconos and possibly parts of Sussex Co, NJ. Best chances for this look to be elevations above 1500 feet or so. Elsewhere, should be all rain.
By Sunday morning, rain will still be ongoing over most of the area (with some freezing rain or light wintry mix still possible in the far north) as a secondary low looks to take shape near the NJ coast. This low will move NE towards New England through the day as it deepens and will bring the precipitation to an end from west to east as it moves away. Precip should wind down in the morning over much of eastern PA and the Delmarva but possibly not until into the afternoon over portions of northern NJ. While the system will have a fair amount of moisture with it and good dynamics, the progressive nature of it should limit total rain amounts to around 0.75 to 1.00 inches so not expecting any hydro issues. Otherwise it will start to turn a bit breezy with some sunny breaks possible by Sunday afternoon and temperatures remaining on the cool side.
Heading into next week, the weather pattern looks to be overall not too active for this region. High pressure moves in Monday and should influence our weather right through Tuesday bringing dry weather with sunshine for both day and temperatures returning to more seasonable levels. A low pressure system passing N/W of the region may then bring some showers by next Wednesday as its associated cold front moves through.
Tonight...High pressure will move offshore tonight. An increasing SW flow will develop behind the high with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts developing after midnight. The previously issued SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will remain. I didn't choose to include the DE Bay in the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag attm, although a few G 20-25 kts are possible. Fair weather tonight.
Friday... The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) flag will continue on the ocean as a cold front arrives on the waters during the afternoon. Showers will accompany the front. Winds will shift from SW to NW after frontal passage. Gusts in the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) range will continue. Seas mostly 3 to 5 ft on the ocean.
Outlook... Friday night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts and seas continue with cold air pouring across the waters. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for DE bay is still not certain, but possible. I capped the gusts at 22 knts for now on lower DE Bay. Fair weather expected. Cold.
Saturday...Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected.
Saturday night...Conditions nearing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria overnight along with light to moderate rain.
Sunday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing by the afternoon hours with offshore winds gusting around 25 kts and waves 3-5 feet. Rain ending during the morning.
Sunday night through Monday...Lingering SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will diminish by daybreak Monday, then sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 2am Friday to 6am EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.