Marine Weather Net

Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ451 Forecast Issued: 610 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.
Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.
Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 10 Seconds.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late In The Evening, Then Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt After Midnight, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt Late. Seas 2 Ft Or Less, Then 4 To 6 Ft Early In The Evening. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.
Sat...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.
Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. A Chance Of Light Rain.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. A Chance Of Light Rain.
Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
613am EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Synopsis
Strong high pressure centered across New England this morning extends down into the Mid-Atlantic, will then shift eastward through tonight. A cold front will move through late Friday, then high pressure builds into our area from the northwest and north later Saturday and Sunday before shifting into the Canadian Maritimes. An ocean storm develops off the Southeast coast Friday night and slowly moves northeastward over the weekend and remaining well off of our coasts, then another storm may develop off the Carolina coast Tuesday and take a similar track through Wednesday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Forecast is largely on track. Will make some minor adjustments to hourly grids based on latest surface obs.

Elongated high pressure extending from New England down to the Mid-Atlantic will continue to lift to the northeast and move offshore today. Meanwhile, H5 trough with several embedded shortwaves moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

With the high lifting away, light south to southwest flow develops. Surface dewpoints will creep up into the teens and 20s, However, it remains quite dry across the region, so only expected SCT-BKN cirrus throughout the day with the approach of those shortwaves.

For the morning commute, still cold, but with not much wind, the wind chill will not be as low as it was Wednesday morning. There are some high clouds building in from the west, and this should help hold temps steady generally in the 20s, but there may be some spots where there is no cloud cover where temps will fall into the teens.

warm air advection on tap for today, and highs will be about 10 degrees higher than Wednesday, topping off in the mid 30s in the southern Poconos, and in the lower 40s north and west of the Fall Line. Highs will be in the upper 40s to around 50 elsewhere.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Friday
Upper trough digging through the Midwest and moving into the Eastern Seaboard will begin to cut off a closed upper low over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Out ahead of that upper low, surface low pressure begins to develop off the Southeast U.S. coast. A frontal boundary develops along the Eastern Seaboard, and the low will begin to lift along that boundary well after midnight tonight.

In terms of sensible weather, conditions should be dry for most of the night, but clouds across the northern zones will move offshore, and clouds will move into the southern portions of the forecast area associated with the approach of the surface low approaching the Mid- Atlantic.

After midnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Friday, some precipitation will develop off the southeast New Jersey coast and into Delmarva. Precip should be mostly rain mainly south and east of the Garden State Parkway and across most of southern Delaware and the southern portion of the eastern shore of Maryland. Going a bit inland, however, it may be hard for the cold air at the surface to scour out, so precipitation may fall as a period of snow or a wintry mix west of the Garden State Parkway to the I-95 corridor. Minimal amounts of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast expected, and Probability of Precipitation will be capped at slight chance to maybe low chance. Not expecting accumulating snow, so no products will be issued.

Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Summary...The air mass moderates some Friday ahead of a cold front, then colder again Saturday into Sunday. Milder air should overtake our area early next week, however strengthening onshore flow may temper or delay the warming at least some.

Synoptic Overview...A closed low slides across eastern Canada and the Northeast Friday into Saturday, while a southern stream closed low reaches the Southeast coast Saturday morning. The latter shifts eastward during Saturday and Sunday taking surface low pressure with it. A strong surface high moving across New England should wedge southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic slowing the initial forward motion of the ocean storm. The storm tracks northeastward through early next week and makes its way well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Lots of energy dropping into the Plains and Gulf coast regions should carve out a large trough during early next week. Strong short wave energy into the base of this trough may develop another ocean storm off the Carolina coast near Tuesday before it also takes a similar track to the northeast. The surface high may be more removed for this second storm, therefore if the overall trough amplifies fast enough the surface low could be pulled closer to the coast. This becomes less certain especially the details this far out, however some model guidance is showing a potentially strong surface low off our coasts in the later Tuesday through Wednesday time frame.

For Friday...A potent closed low dropping southeastward from Hudson Bay Canada Friday will carve out a trough into the Northeast. This will drive a mainly dry cold front across our area late Friday, however some warm air advection ahead of it will help boost afternoon temperatures to around 50 for many. Meanwhile, energy diving across the southern states closes off as is nears the Southeast coast. This will induce surface low pressure development along a lingering baroclinic zone just off the Southeast coast. As this occurs, strong high pressure is forecast to build eastward from near the Great Lakes region and should help to keep a developing area of rain well to our south. In addition, the low-level flow turns north to northeast Friday night and increases some and given the aforementioned surface high much drier air should be advecting southward into our area.

For Saturday and Sunday...The model guidance remains in good overall agreement with the large scale features. Southern stream energy results in an ocean storm off the Southeast coast, which then tracks northeastward through Sunday night. While the bulk of this system should remain far enough offshore to keep much of the precipitation out of our area, some mainly light rain cannot be ruled out especially later Sunday closer to the coast. Given strong surface high pressure slowly shifting away from New England, it may provide enough subsidence to keep the associated ocean storm rain shield just south and east of our area. However, the presence of the surface high and the offshore surface low will result in a tight pressure gradient, and therefore a gusty northeasterly wind is expected especially closer to the coast. Following a cold front Friday night, the surface high initially building by to our north will result in a north to northeast surface wind and bring in colder and noticeably drier air. Saturday should feature more sunshine due to the greater influence from the surface high, then clouds increase Sunday as the storm tracks east of the Carolinas. The Probability of Precipitation start to increase up the coast during Sunday and expand inland some Sunday night, however this is less certain given the offshore track of the storm and much drier air still holding on especially inland (PoPs no higher than low end chance). The low-level dry air will eventually start to erode some late Sunday especially closer to the coast.

For Monday through Wednesday...The evolution of the upper air pattern is an amplified one, however the details are less certain. As one low pressure slides by well offshore to start Monday, the flow aloft amplifies to our west with a potentially significant trough shifting eastward through mid week. The timing of the embedded short waves will be crucial as at least the 00z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) looks to phase things which results in a stronger trough in the East and therefore a much stronger surface low off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Some other guidance however keeps things separate and therefore a weaker surface low that tracks farther offshore. There is some potential given the scope of the incoming trough, and given the details are less certain this far out in time we therefore generally blended the 00z WPC guidance in with continuity.

Marine
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on tap for today and tonight. SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W late tonight. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook... Friday and Saturday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria during the day Friday, then winds become northerly Friday night and increase. Gale force gusts are quite possible later Friday night through Saturday night. Seas will become rough. A Gale Watch has been issued for all areas except for Upper Delaware Bay late Friday night through Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday...Periods of northeast gale force wind gusts are quite possible along with rough seas. The winds however should diminish some on Monday.

Climate
Here are the record low temperatures for today:

Climate Site Nov 14 ------------ ------ Allentown 17 in 1986 Atlantic City 15 in 1986 Atl. City Marina 23 in 1874 Georgetown 22 in 1986, 1950 Mount Pocono 5 in 1905 Philadelphia 19 in 1986 Reading 16 in 1986 Trenton 20 in 1905 Wilmington 20 in 1986, 1911

NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for ANZ431-450>455.