Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Scattered Showers Early This Evening. Swell Mainly From The Nw With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 7 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming Nw Late. Seas 6 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain Early In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon. Swell Mainly From The S With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
612pm EDT Sat May 8 2021
Low pressure will move north into the Canadian Maritimes tonight while high pressure builds in to our south over the western Atlantic. Low pressure is forecast to track across our area Sunday night into Monday morning, with a cold front crossing our area during Monday. Strong high pressure builds in later Tuesday and Wednesday before weakening and shifting offshore during Thursday. Low pressure moving across the southern states Thursday may then track near our region Friday.
Near Term - Through Sunday
No significant changes with the early evening update. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease over the next few hours as we lose the daytime heating and the mid level short wave trough slides east of the region. Additionally, the remnant surface boundary that was a focus for low level confluence (and enhanced convective development with the earlier showers and storms) has become more diffuse and should continue to do so. The sky should become mostly clear for a few hours either side of midnight. A west to northwest wind around 10 MPH into this evening should decrease to 5 MPH or less overnight.
High clouds ahead of our next weather system are forecast to begin arriving late tonight. Low temperatures should favor the lower and middle 40s in our region, with readings in the upper 30s expected in the Poconos and in far northern New Jersey. Spotty frost is possible, but it should not be widespread enough to warrant an advisory.
Sunday will feature an increase in cloud cover. A 50+ knot low level southwesterly wind jet is forecast to push over our region during the afternoon. It will result in a strong punch of warm advection aloft. We are expecting rain to overspread eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware and New Jersey in the afternoon. The rain should miss much of eastern Maryland, and central and southern Delaware.
The wind is expected to back to the southwest and south on Sunday around 10 MPH. Highs should range from the lower and middle 50s in the Poconos to the middle 60s in eastern Maryland, and in central and southern Delaware.
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday
Low pressure will move ENE across the area Sunday night into early Monday likely passing near or just north of the I-95 corridor. This will bring a period of rain through the region mostly through the evening and the first half of the overnight and mostly north of the I-95 corridor. In fact portions of our southern Delmarva zones and southern NJ may see little to no precip.
Any lingering rain/showers should quickly come to an end Monday morning as low pressure quickly exits off the coast. Total rain amounts look to generally be a tenth to a quarter inch or less except possibly over a half inch over portions of NE PA and NW NJ. Otherwise Monday should be mostly dry and a bit breezy in the wake of the low with some sunshine developing by afternoon. Highs will be mostly in the 60s to low 70s except 50s over the southern Poconos.
The upper level trough located to our north and west looks to finally swing through the region Monday night into Tuesday with surface high pressure building into the midwestern states. This should set conditions up for a dry but fairly gusty day for Tuesday as there looks to be a very deep mixed layer due to the colder air aloft combined with surface heating. Winds may gust to 20 to 30 mph or higher by the afternoon. Precip associated with the upper level trough looks to stay to our north. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Tuesday with highs mostly in the low to mid 60s.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
Mainly clear conditions look to dominate for Wednesday through Thursday as the upper level trough moves out to our north and east and surface high pressure moves in. Temperatures will also warm a few degrees each day with highs by Thursday reaching back into the upper 60s to around 70 for much of the region.
Conditions may turn unsettled again by the end of the week into next weekend but there remains a lot of forecast uncertainty at this time. GFS depicts a coastal storm developing near or off the coast and moving northeast into Friday but it is the outlier solution so we just keep POPs at the lower end of the "Chance" category. Additional energy approaching from the west could bring some showers into the area by late Saturday. Temperatures look to remain near if not just a bit below average for this time of year.
A northwest wind 10 to 20 knots is expected for tonight. There could be gusts in excess of 25 knots on our southern waters into this evening. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in place until 11:00pm for Delaware Bay and for our ocean waters south of the Atlantic City area.
A northwest to west wind around 10 knots is forecast to back to the southwest and south on Sunday, increasing to around 15 knots.
Waves heigheights on our ocean waters should be 3 to 4 feet, with waves on Delaware Bay generally 1 to 3 feet.
Outlook... Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable as southwest winds increase and seas build. Some warmer air will be arriving ahead of a cold front, therefore the extent of the vertical mixing is a little less certain.
Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable at least in the morning. Gusty winds shift to the west and northwest then diminish some through the day. Elevated seas will subside into Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night with conditions improving during Wednesday.
Thursday...conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431-453>455.