Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 11 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 12 Seconds.|
|Fri...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt Late. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Showers Likely In The Afternoon. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Decreasing To 30 Kt Late. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Until Early Morning. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1007am EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
High pressure will briefly build over our region today. Low pressure will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley on Friday and then into the Mid Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. The low will finally pull away from the region Sunday, followed by a return to high pressure, which may persist through midweek.
Near Term - Through Tonight
No significant changes with the 10:00am update. A surface high pressure area from Canada will extend into the Middle Atlantic today while an upper ridge also arrives from the west. These two systems will provide fair weather today with mostly sunny skies this morning and increasing clouds for the afternoon. Actually this morning, we are experiencing some of the clearest skies of the region for a change. Temperatures today will climb to seasonal readings with low/mid 60s for the Srn/Ern areas and upper 50s/low 60s for the Poconos, north NJ and the Lehigh Valley area. Winds will be mostly NE to E at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight... The next strong low pressure system and its associated fronts begin to move close enough to cause an onshore to strengthen over the area. Increasing and lowering clouds and rains (towards dawn) will develop over the region. The probability of precipitation will be only in the slight chc/chance range from a line between Chester County PA southeast to Cape May, NJ. Lows tonight will vary greatly over the area with upper 30s/low 40s for the northern areas to the mid 50s for Delmarva and coastal NJ. Winds will increase late to 10 to 15 mph from the E or SE.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
What has changed: With the latest model runs, most guidance now depicts the area for cyclogenesis a bit farther southwest. This slightly decreases the risk for heavy rain in our region, though it still remains a concern as minor changes could lead to big differences in impacts for our region.
The trend for the onset of precipitation being later continued with this morning's model runs, as it now looks like rain won't move in until mostly mid to late morning on Friday.
Increasing concern for the stronger winds of the low level easterly/southeasterly jet to mix down, at least at coastal locations, during the mid to late afternoon. Based on the latest timing in the guidance, it looks like the low level jet will be near the mouth of the Delaware Bay around 21Z, so far southeastern NJ and southern Delaware are at the greatest risk for stronger winds. A wind advisory has been issued for these locations.
Overview: Low pressure will move through the Tennessee Valley Thursday night and into the Ohio Valley on Friday before pushing into the Mid- Atlantic on Saturday. The low is accompanied by a very strong upper level closed low and appears to be stacked on top of the surface low. A 50-60 kt low level southeasterly/easterly jet is expected to pivot over our region through the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the low.
Hazards: Heavy rain...The main concern with this hazard remains the low level jet as it would increase the moisture transport across the area and increase our risk for heavy rain and flooding. However, with cyclogenesis occuring a bit earlier/further southwest, the low level jet should be weakening as it lifts through the region, so the risk with the latest model runs for flooding is slightly lower than with yesterday's model runs. None the less, there remains a concern, especially as we have fairly wet antecedent conditions across the northern half of our forecast area. There remains a broad range of solutions as to where the axis of heaviest rain would set up, additionally, with the weakening jet moving through quicker, there appears to be a narrower window for the risk of heavy rain. Consequently, don't have enough confidence to issue a flood watch at this time, but will continue.nue to monitor this closely.
Strong winds...With the strong low level jet, we will likely see increased winds at the surface, especially along the coastal areas. Mixing remains limited, so it appears the risk for wind advisory level winds will be limited to only locations near the jet at 21Z when we should have maximum mixing. At this point, it appears the jet should be near the mouth of the Delaware Bay at that time, so a wind advisory is in effect for far southeastern NJ and Central and southern DE.
The other hazard with this system will be coastal flooding which is discussed more in the tide/coastal flooding section below.
The dry slot associated with this low should begin to nudge into our region Saturday morning, resulting in precipitation gradually ending from south to north. The strong east winds will slacken off and become more southwesterly through the day. Don't fully expect the skies to clear but would not be surprised to see peeks of sun, moreso over southern areas.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Tranquil conditions are expected Sunday into Monday as the low lifts away from our region. A cold front should approach our region in the Monday to Wednesday time frame, but it doesn't look to have significant impacts; at most, some guidance is showing weak lows progressing along the front, bringing a slight chance for precipitation. Once it does fully clear the area, there may be a chance for a hard freeze in the higher terrain of the southern Poconos and NW NJ, but exactly when it will clear our region is uncertain.
Temperatures look to remain above normal for the rest of the period, but trend down closer to normal by the middle of the week, especially if the cold front clears the region.
Fair weather is expected today and much of tonight. There is a chance for some rain across the DE and southern coastal NJ waters as well as the Delaware Bay towards dawn Friday. Seas will remain in the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) range for the NJ/DE waters today and into the evening, so the flag will continue.nue there. The next system will cause an increase in winds and seas by dawn Friday so a Gale will be raised for late tonight for the waters.
Outlook... Friday...Gale conditions are expected on all the waters for at least a portion of the Friday to Friday night period. Winds should ramp up from south to north, but the exact timing is still somewhat uncertain. Have high confidence we will see gale conditions (and there is a small chance for storm force conditions), so have issued a gale warning for all the waters.
Saturday and Sunday...Winds and seas should gradually diminish through this period. On the Delaware Bay, conditions should be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria as early as Saturday morning. For the ocean waters, elevated seas may linger into Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday...Seas are expected to fall below 5 feet Sunday night. Once seas drop, expect sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to continue through Monday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
The next low pressure system will approach from the west and southwest tomorrow. As it approaches the region, strong onshore flow is expected tomorrow. This will allow little opportunity for water to drain away from the coast. Tidal departures are already running high with the coastal low earlier this week. Consequently, coastal flooding is likely for at least the next few days. Despite astronomical tides still being at least 2 ft below minor flooding thresholds, the departures will be enough for widespread minor flooding with the higher of the astronomical tides, and potential for moderate flooding with the Friday high tide.
Starting with the high tide later today, widespread minor tidal flooding is expected, so a coastal flood advisory is in effect for the Atlantic coasts, Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River.
The Friday high tide is currently the tide of greatest concern, as moderate tidal flooding looks likely, primarily for the DE and southern NJ coasts, and the Delaware Bay and tidal Delaware River.
Even outside of the higher astronomical tides, tidal flooding may persist on back bays, especially Barnegat Bay in NJ and Little Assawoman Bay in DE. Due to the flow regime, water will be very slow to drain out of back bays, so tidal departures will likely build with time.
For the Chesapeake Bay: we should fall short of minor tidal flooding with the high tide later this morning, but after that, we could have 2 consecutive high tides of minor tidal flooding. With the Friday night high tide, the risk is increasing for moderate tidal flooding. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the tonight and Friday morning high tides, and a coastal flood watch has been issued for the Friday night high tide.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for PAZ070-071-106. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6pm to 11pm EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for NJZ020- 026-027. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ021-023-024. Wind Advisory from 11am to 11pm EDT Friday for NJZ021>025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for NJZ012>014-021>025. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT this evening for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for NJZ015-017>019. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6pm to 11pm EDT this evening for NJZ017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for DEZ002>004. Wind Advisory from 11am to 11pm EDT Friday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10pm EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for MDZ012-015-019-020. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10pm this evening to 5pm EDT Friday for MDZ012-015-019-020.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ450>455. Gale Warning from 8am Friday to 5am EDT Saturday for ANZ450>453. Gale Warning from 5am Friday to 2am EDT Saturday for ANZ454- 455. Gale Warning from 5am to 11pm EDT Friday for ANZ430-431.