Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The E With A Dominant Period Of 9 Seconds.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Tue...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
653am EST Fri Nov 27 2020
High pressure will continue to build through the weekend with a secondary cold front that passes through the region this evening. A complex low pressure system will move in from our southwest and will affect the area for Monday into at least Tuesday, and it may linger near the area into the middle of next week.
Near Term - Through Saturday
7am It remains a rather quiet night with only a few tweaks to the forecast to update hourly temps/dew points based on trends in obs. Hope you get to enjoy a pleasant day!
Previous discussion... Dry air advection has continued to push into the region overnight limiting the overall fog threat. The forecast has been quite a challenging for quiet weather. There's been a narrow stripe without cloud cover that has allowed temperatures to fall into the 30s while holding in the upper 40s to low 50s north and south of that stripe. As typical with these sort of cloud induced mesoscale variations, no guidance really has a great handle so I've had to use observations to extrapolate out.
Strato-cu will likely persist through the morning and throughout much of the afternoon with breaks possible. This makes for a challenging forecast as when clearing happens, we'll warm, however if the clouds don't clear then temps will likely stay a bit cooler. Light westerly winds will prevail through the day.
A secondary cold front will track through the area this evening with high pressure building over the region Saturday. Even with the passage of the cold front, temperatures will remain above normal. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s north and west of I95 and in the 40s south and east. Highs Saturday should be still above normal however much closer to normal with low to mid 50s expected.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure then builds in for Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonably chilly temperatures Saturday night with a cool air mass and better radiational cooling conditions in place. Plenty of sunshine on Sunday with the center of high pressure overhead and high temperatures similar to Saturday.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
Overview... A pattern change is expected for the start of the new week and the new month. A strong +PNA signal remains evident from early next week right through week's end and potentially beyond. This will be accompanied by a trend towards negative AO and NAO values. Conceptually, this is a classic cold and stormy pattern for the East Coast, though at least through this forecast period the results will be rather underwhelming. A primarily southern stream driven storm system will affect the region on Monday, with continued good confidence that Monday will be a rainy and windy day. A large upper level low associated with that system will likely remain in the vicinity for several days to follow as a broad troughing pattern sets up in the East. However, with little forcing beyond Monday, much of the midweek period looks to be a lull in active weather, with cooler but mainly dry conditions. With the +PNA/-AO pattern remaining in place, additional disturbances will likely have to be watched towards the end of next week.
Dailies... Sunday night-Monday night... A storm system remains on track to affect the area to begin the week. There have been a few small changes in the expected evolution of the system, but without too much of an impact on the sensible weather forecast. Notably, the system as a whole is looking a little more progressive, not so much in its arrival but in its departure. By Monday evening, the low center will likely already be into upstate New York or even southern Canada, bringing our region into the dry slot. So there is a good chance that steady precipitation will end by Monday evening as the dry slot will likely be quite expansive.
Breaking down the forecast further, Sunday night is still looking dry, with clouds likely to increase and thicken through the night. Rain moves in Monday morning, and Monday pretty much looks like a washout though it may begin to dry out from south to north later in the day. Very warm for the seasonal as well on Monday, typical of an inland low track. Upper 50s and low 60s are forecast. An early look at rainfall totals suggests amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range, so a good dose of rain and much of it likely coming within 6 to 8 hours. But that shouldn't be enough to cause more than nuisance hydro issues. Continuing to watch the wind potential as well, as a strong south- southeasterly LLJ moves overhead towards the middle of the day. The more progressive evolution and recent trends towards a modestly less intense low may mitigate this, but some models still show the LLJ being quite intense (60+ kt at 850mb) so we will have to keep an eye on that. And with the full moon on Monday, will also have to keep an eye on tidal levels, though again the shorter duration should help with this. All in all, am reasonably optimistic that this event will not be overly impactful from a public perspective outside of a rainy day on Monday, but worth continuing to keep an eye on for any potential surprises in the wind or tidal aspects.
Tuesday-Wednesday... With the more progressive evolution of the early week system, we are more confident in the trend towards drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. With high latitude blocking developing, the low from early in the week won't really go anywhere, rather it will set up shop to our west-northwest and gradually weaken as it becomes vertically stacked and fills. But based on its expected positioning, its impact to us will probably be limited after Monday. On Tuesday, a bit of wrap around precipitation or instability showers associated with the broad upper level low could be possible, with the best chances to the north. Wednesday looks to have the best chance of dry weather as forcing becomes very weak. In the wake of the Monday storm and with broad troughing and much lower heigheights in place all throughout the East, a trend towards cooler weather is expected. However, it does not look especially cold with temperatures only trending down towards more seasonal values.
Later next week... Broad troughing continues to dominate the eastern half of the US in a +PNA/-AO pattern. Indications are for another shortwave to rotate around the base of the trough towards next Thursday, which may yield another low pressure system tracking on either side of the East Coast late in the week. This could bring additional unsettled weather to the region, more likely towards Friday or Saturday. With a cooler air mass remaining in place, portions of the area may have a chance for some wintry outcomes late next week, but this remains to be seen.
Below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) expected through the period with seas generally on the decrease and winds expected to veer toward the west and northwest for tonight and Friday at speeds near 10 knots.
Outlook... Friday night-Sunday night... Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected. Northwest winds through Sunday morning shifting to south then southeast with gusts 20 kt or less through the period. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Monday-Tuesday... A low pressure system will affect the area, bringing marine impacts for early next week. Marine headlines are likely beginning Monday morning. Southeasterly winds Monday into Monday night could gust to gale force, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continuing into Tuesday as winds become more southwest. Seas build quickly Monday morning and will run 8 to 12 ft for most of this period.
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.