Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming E 9 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: E 10 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Tue...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: E 10 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: E 11 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 11 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 529pm EDT Sunday Oct 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a third key message about coastal flooding. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Frost concerns for portions of the area later tonight into early Monday morning. 2. A nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid- Atlantic is expected to bring coastal impacts and create hazardous marine conditions through at least the middle of this week. 3. A prolonged period of onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated high tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding. KEY MESSAGE 1. Frost concerns for portions of the area later tonight into early Monday morning. A narrow mid level ridge from the upper Ohio Valley to southern New England is forecast to weaken some tonight into Monday. Surface high pressure stretched southwest to northeast across our area will also weaken a bit through tonight. As this occurs, a closed low off the coast of the Carolinas will support surface low pressure also well off those coasts. This will start to tighten the pressure gradient northward into our area later tonight and Monday morning. This will have implications on the surface winds. Most inland areas should decouple for a while tonight, however areas closer to the coast (especially near and south/east of I-95) may have a northeasterly wind increase some overnight and especially Monday morning. Given the presence of the ridge aloft and surface high pressure directly over the interior areas longer, there is a greater risk of frost tonight and early Monday morning. Therefore, opted to issue a Frost Advisory for areas near and north/west of I-95 for where the growing season continues. For areas south and east of there, patchy frost is possible away from the coasts but with lower confidence on widespread frost opted to hold off on any frost advisories. After a chilly/cold start Monday, a milder afternoon is forecast with high temperatures topping out right near average away from the immediate coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...A nor'easter developing off the coast of the southern Mid-Atlantic is expected to bring coastal impacts and create hazardous marine conditions through at least the middle of this week. The base of a deep trough axis that is located just offshore will cutoff into an upper level low tonight which will then meander over the southern Mid- Atlantic coast over the next few days. At the same time, strong and expansive high pressure will be building over the Ohio Valley. As a result, a nor'easter is developing off the North Carolina coast and is expected to continue to strengthen and meander offshore into the middle of this week. Overall, confidence has increased that through at least Wednesday, the nor'easter will remain close enough to bring multiple impacts to our coastal areas. Persistently strong northeast winds will push water towards the coast. Multiple rounds of coastal flooding are likely (see key message 3 below). Increasing seas may result in beach erosion in some areas as well. For areas along the immediate coast, gusty winds up to around 30-35 mph are possible. Inland, impacts will be limited to none with how far offshore the storm is likely to be. In fact, outside of a few showers at the coast, little to no precipitation is likely at all over land areas. For Thursday and beyond, there still remains more uncertainty in the forecast. However, the prevailing consensus is trending towards the storm being swept out to sea which would likely result in an improvement in conditions along the coast. Notably, though, there are still multiple members of both the EC and GEFS ensemble suites that have the nor'easter continue to linger in our offshore waters towards the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 3...A prolonged period of onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated high tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding. As the nor'easter develops and meanders offshore through at least the middle of the week, there will be a persistent and strong northeast wind in place. This will lead to a prolonged period of onshore flow resulting in multiple elevated high tide cycles. The first high tide cycle of concern is currently expected to be Tuesday evening as spotty minor to minor tidal flooding is forecast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Tuesday evening high tide cycle for Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, Kent, and Sussex County Delaware. This Advisory goes from 3pm to 9pm Tuesday and is for widespread minor coastal flooding. The high tide cycle late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, looks to bring another round of spotty minor to widespread minor tidal flooding. An additional Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed for Ocean, southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, Kent, and Sussex County Delaware. Additional coastal flood hazards will likely be needed for high tide cycles Wednesday, and potentially Thursday, as the high tide cycles remain elevated. From the current forecast, Wednesday evening's high tide cycle looks to be the one of most concern with widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding. Beyond Wednesday evening, another round of coastal flooding is possible but uncertainty remains in the exact extent as it will be dependent on the location of the nor'easter. Marine The winds have come down this afternoon with some lingering gusts to near 25 knot mainly across the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters. The winds will increase from south to north late tonight and especially during Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and also a ocean storm organizing to our south. The timing of the stronger winds northward still has some uncertainty, however enough guidance shows gale force gusts spreading northward on Monday. Therefore, went with a Gale Warning for all coastal water and offshore zones with the exception of the two farthest north zones. Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated to start developing on Delaware Bay during Monday afternoon. Seas will build as a result of the increasing onshore wind. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...A slow moving and possibly meandering nor'easter to our south and east will bring a prolonged period of gale force conditions across all marine waters except Delaware Bay. The Gale Warning goes through Tuesday night for now. Small Craft Advisory for Delaware Bay also goes through Tuesday night, however it is possible a period of low-end gale force gusts occur across the lower bay at times toward Wednesday. For the far northern zone off of New Jersey, went with a Gale Watch starting Tuesday morning given more uncertainty this far north. A Small Craft Advisory occurs prior to the watch for the northern most New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters zone (Gale Warning for the adjacent offshore zone starting late Monday night). Dangerous seas will develop and continue through Wednesday. Thursday And Friday Small Craft Advisory conditions are probable as the conditions gradually improve. NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories PA...Frost Advisory from 1am to 9am EDT Monday for PAZ060-061- 101>106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3pm to 9pm EDT Tuesday for NJZ020-022>027. Frost Advisory from 1am to 9am EDT Monday for NJZ008>010-012- 015. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3pm to 9pm EDT Tuesday for DEZ002>004. MD...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ450. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for ANZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ451>455. Gale Warning from 6am Monday to 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455-481>483-485. Gale Warning from 1am Tuesday to 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ480. |
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