Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late In The Morning, Then Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Late In The Evening. Showers Likely After Midnight. Swell Mainly From The Se With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds, Becoming Mainly From The N With A Dominant Period Of 7 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Thu...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas Around 3 Ft. Showers Likely Early In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon. Swell Mainly From The N With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
137am EDT Wednesday May 18 2022
High pressure will settle briefly across the region tonight through Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will lift a warm front northward through the region Wednesday night bringing a period of showers and the return of warmer and more humid air into Thursday. Southwesterly flow will then continue to bring much warmer and more humid conditions as a cold front approaches from the northwest into the weekend. The cold front will cross the area on Sunday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then return into early next week with cooler and drier conditions.
Near Term - Through Today
A weak cold front is settling south across the region. Temperatures are dropping a few degrees behind the front with winds shifting to the north. Clear skies tonight as drier air advects southward into the region. The gusty west northwest wind is forecast to diminish to less than 10 MPH. Lows tonight will favor the 40s and lower 50s.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes tonight as its center is expected to pass off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Wednesday afternoon. The air mass will likely bring plenty of sunshine to our region for Wednesday morning. We are forecasting an increase in high clouds on Wednesday afternoon, ahead of our next weather system. Some mid level clouds may begin to arrive toward evening.
A light west to southwest wind is expected for Wednesday with high temperatures mainly in the 65 to 75 degree range.
Short Term - Tonight Through Friday
A shortwave trough is expected to pass across the region Wednesday night and early Thursday. This will lift a warm front north through the area and bring a period of showers through the area overnight. This will mark the beginning of the fairly long duration southwesterly return flow regime which will last into the weekend leading to much above normal temperatures late this week and over the weekend. This will be the result of upper ridging beginning to build across the East Coast Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure will be located across the northern Plains and pass toward the Great Lakes during this period with a Bermuda high pressure located offshore to our southeast.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast with the Wednesday night round of showers has increased a bit, mainly near and north of the Philly metro where about a quarter of an inch of rainfall is now forecast. Locally higher amounts are possible. With elevated instability increasing a bit, some embedded thunder is possible, especially across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. The showers may linger a bit into the mid to late morning hours on Thursday, but the bulk of the precipitation will be ending by daybreak. Low temperatures will be just a couple degrees above normal Wednesday night, mainly in the mid 50s, and temperatures should start warming a bit before daybreak as the warm front lifts through.
Thursday will start out mostly cloudy in the wake of the warm front with the lingering showers, but skies should gradually clear out into the afternoon as winds increase to around 10-15 mph from the west. Expect highs about 5 degrees above normal in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in most areas. Winds will die down Thursday night as temperatures fall into the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly clear skies.
On Friday, southerly surface winds and a strengthening upper ridge across the region will lead to well above normal high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, potentially making a run at the 90 degree mark in some locations. Skies will be mostly sunny and no precipitation is expected, so these will not be a limiting factor to temperatures climbing to these levels. Dewpoints in the low 60s should preclude any excessive heat concerns, but maximum heat indicies will probably get into the low 90s.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
Upper ridging will continue to build to around +1-2 sigma through Saturday then the ridge axis will move to our east as a trough axis moves across the Great Lakes region Saturday night into Sunday. The Bermuda high will remain in place through this weekend, but will shift a bit further east with time as the mid-level wave axis drifts east. We have increased high temperatures a few degrees for Saturday as the synoptic pattern will be favorable for widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with some areas potentially getting into the upper 90s near the urban corridor. This will put a number of record highs in jeopardy. With dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s, maximum heat indicies will be in the mid to upper 90s as well. A Heat Advisory may be needed for the urban corridor on Saturday. Lows Friday night and Saturday night will be some 10-15 degrees above normal, which won't provide much relief from the heat.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible northwest of the Philly metro on Saturday, but the ridging should prevent anything from becoming too widespread or moving much farther east than the Lehigh Valley until the late evening.
A cold front associated with the trough will cross the region on Sunday bringing an end to the near record breaking heat, but it will also likely bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will have to be monitored for severe weather potential in the coming days. High pressure is expected to build into the area Sunday night into Monday bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures and much drier air.
Southwest to west wind 10 to 15 knots, veering to the northwest overnight into Wednesday morning. The wind is forecast to become southerly on Wednesday afternoon as the center of high pressure passes off the coast.
Waves on our ocean waters will likely stay in the 2 to 3 foot range, with waves on Delaware Bay remaining at 2 feet or less.
Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday...Southerly winds 15-20 kts are expected with gusts potentially nearing 25 kts across the ocean waters near and south of Atlantic City. Seas 2-4 feet. A period of showers is expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Thursday night through Friday night...No marine headlines are anticipated. Southerly winds around 10-15 kts and seas 2-3 feet.
Saturday through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible. Southerly winds will increase to around 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and seas 3-5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours, especially Sunday.
A hot and humid air mass is forecast to overspread our region Friday and especially Saturday. At least some record high temperatures could be challenged on Saturday, and these are listed below for reference.
Locations 5/21 Record High Temperatures --------- -----------------------------
Philadelphia, PA 95 in 1934 Reading, PA 96 in 1996 Allentown, PA 92 in 1934 Mount Pocono, PA 87 in 1911 Trenton, NJ 94 in 1934 Atlantic City (airport), NJ 93 in 1996 Atlantic City (marina), NJ 85 in 1934 Wilmington, DE 95 in 1996 Georgetown, DE 94 in 1996
NOAA Mount Holly NJ Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None.