Marine Weather Net

Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

W
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

WED

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ355 Forecast Issued: 555 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Decreasing To 35 Kt Late. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: W 7 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.
Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Light Freezing Spray.
Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Chance Of Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.
Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Snow After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 6 Seconds. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft.
Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Sat Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
720pm EST Monday Feb 17 2025

Synopsis
Low pressure meanders near the Canadian Maritimes tonight as a strong high drops down into the Central US. The high gradually builds into the region on Wednesday. An area of low pressure ejects off the Southeast US coast Wednesday night and passes well south and east of the area Thursday. High pressure builds in from the west for the end of the week and into next weekend.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Winds have fallen below Wind Advisory criteria and the advisory was allowed to expire at 6 pm. Still can't rule out a gust or two to 40kt this evening, mainly over the CT zones where some guidance has winds aloft increasing. However, winds with this update were actually a bit lower than the forecast, so lowered sustained and gusts a few kt over the next few hours. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

High pressure continues to build in tonight. Aside from a few possible flurries over southern CT into early this evening, dry weather expected through the night.

Cold and breezy with lows in the teens for most spots an only around 20 in the city. Wind chills bottom out late tonight into the single digits for NYC metro and in the single digits below zero elsewhere. This is short of Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Still breezy for Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west with WNW winds gusting to 30-40mph. Dry, mostly sunny, but colder than today with highs only 25-30 in most spots. Wind chills rise only into the teens during the afternoon.

Winds will at least diminish Tuesday night as a high pressure ridge shifts closer. Low temperatures in the teens for most spots with minimum wind chills a few degrees warmer than tonight due to the weaker winds.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
* Chance continues to decrease for a winter storm in the Wednesday night to Thursday night time frame.

* Remaining cold with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

1050-1058 mb arctic high pressure continues to nose in from the north and west Wednesday, keeping the region dry through the day Wednesday. Though as a baroclinic zone sets up over the South, low pressure develops and deepens as shortwave energy swings through midweek. This low is expected to trek east and eject off the Southeast coast Wednesday night, to south and east of the region into Thursday, before exiting well out to sea. Current deterministic model suite continue the trend of the low passing well east of the 40/70 benchmark. Current NBM of 6" or greater in a 24 hour period is 0% from about central Long Island westward, with about a 20% chance for Montauk. In fact, chance of an inch or greater ranges from only 45% for the south fork of Long Island, to about 15% across northeast NJ.

The low passes out to sea regardless by late Thursday, and high pressure returns once again from the west. This high remains west of the area through much of the weekend, providing dry but cold conditions.

As for ensembles, current ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble give coastal areas a 10-30% chance of 24 total precipitation of great than half an inch liquid equivalent, down from 30-40% from yesterday, while the same metric is only 10-20% with the GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble which is about the same as yesterday. Current NBM probability of 0.60" of liquid equivalent (Winter Storm Warning criteria in 12 hours with 10:1 ratio) shows a 10-30% chance in 12 hours. The higher probabilities are being pushed farther east with each successive model run, showing the trend of moisture being pushed offshore.

Low pressure treks northeast Thursday night into Friday while high pressure builds in from the west. This high will remain west of the area through much of the weekend, providing dry, but cold conditions.

Marine
A Gale Warning has replaced the storm warning on the ocean waters with observed gusts falling below Storm Warning criteria for several hours now. Gale warnings last through Tuesday morning on the non- ocean waters, and covers through Tuesday afternoon on the ocean. The warning may need to be extended for a few hours beyond this on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Expecting some light freezing spray on all waters tonight into Tuesday, but not heavy enough to warrant an advisory.

With cold air moving in, and the combination of strong winds and high seas, there is a chance of freezing spray Wednesday. At this time, ice accretion is expected to remain below Advisory criteria, but will continue to monitor conditions should one be needed.

With the continued eastward progression of a coastal low, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Wednesday into Thursday are no longer expected (with the exception of some lingering 5 ft waves Wednesday morning across the eastern ocean zone). Winds and waves build Thursday night as the pressure gradient between the exiting low and an incoming high pressure increases. Gusts on the ocean waters are expected to be 25 to 30 kt, with waves building to 4 to 6 ft. Conditions return to sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) late Friday night onward.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Based on observed tides during the low tide cycle this morning and guidance from P-ETSS/NAEFS and the 5th percentile NYHOPS, have issued a low water advisory for this evening along western LI Sound as well as Peconic and Gardiners Bays. Anticipating levels to drop to -2 to -2.5 MLLW. Not as confident for widespread low water issues along the north shore of Suffolk County as well as along Staten Island, but it may be close. The combination of relatively strong W to WNW winds and astronomically predicted low tides will pose a threat of low water advisory conditions for the low tide cycles during Tuesday morning and night for all of the above mentioned areas, particularly where the advisory is currently in effect for tonight.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
Gale Warning until noon EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345. Low Water Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for ANZ335-340. Gale Warning until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.