Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 256am EDT Wednesday September 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Rip Statement has been issued for this evening into tomorrow for the high risk of rip currents. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Low-end chance for showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again Thursday evening/night. Gusty winds expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 2) Mild temperatures under dry conditions Friday and Saturday. 3) Another low-end chance for showers late this weekend. 4) High rip current risk (and 4 to 7 ft surf) expected this evening through Thursday at ocean beaches. Minor beach flooding possible during the times of high tide this evening thru Thursday evening. .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure exits offshore as an amplified Canadian upper-level trough sends a cold front our way. A pre-frotal trough will bring our next best chance for rain, which isn't all that great, if we're being honest. Strong LLJ forcing with the surface trough along with peak 2" PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and 0-6km bulk shear of around 40 kts should lead to a line of showers approaching the area Wednesday night, passing through in the early morning hours of Thursday. However, there is virtually no instability, so thunderstorms seem unlikely. Most 00Z CAMs have showers breaking up dissipating into Thursday morning as it traverses the area, so the best chances for any precipitation Thu morning will be areas N & W of NYC. Even then, the window will be brief. There are still a few 00Z CAMs that keep the line together through most of the CWA, such as the HRRR, so it is worth monitoring. Along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be a strong ~45kt LLJ. This will lead to strong, gusty southerly winds at the surface Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The strongest of which will be at the coast with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Winds will then diminish into the day on Thursday and into Thursday night as winds turn NW with a cold front. A stalled surface boundary to our south could lead to additional chance for showers along southern sections of the area Thursday evening/night, but chances will end when the cold front officially pushes through from the NW Thursday evening/night. Highs look to be in the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday, before the front advances through. .KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds in for the remainder of the week and into the first half of the weekend. This will lead to dry weather. Given lower heigheights aloft and very dry air, highs Friday and Saturday will struggle to get to 80, with most reaching the 70s. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Long term model guidance hints at a possible shortwave embedded in flattening zonal flow aloft could bring a few showers or storms Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence is low, at this time. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Southerly winds increasing to around 20 kt this afternoon into tonight will have surf building to 3 to 5 ft late today into this evening. This will increase the rip current risk at the ocean beaches to moderate through the afternoon, and likely high this evening. The rip current risk continues at high on Thursday. While winds take on a more westerly component, a residual S/SW wind swell of 5 to 8 ft will produce 4 to 7 ft breakers in the surf zone, highest for eastern LI beaches. The elevated surf, combined with high astronomical tides ahead of September 10th new moon, may result in minor ocean beach flooding during the times of high tide. Along the mainland, water levels will approach minor flood thresholds during the times of high tide this evening along southern bays of Queens and Nassau and coastal SW CT and Westchester. The moderate S/SW flow and choppy waves may result in some localized minor flood impacts for vulnerable shoreline areas. Marine S winds will then increase ahead of an approaching cold front. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued for all waters tonight as winds hit criteria. There is a low chance that a few gusts hit gale force, particularly on the ocean and back bays. Winds decrease on Thu in the vicinity of the front, but seas will linger at or above 5 ft on the ocean most of the day. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continues there thru the day. Conditions likely below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels all waters Fri-Mon. Rip Currents See Key Message 4. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from this evening through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 8am EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 6pm EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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