Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...Se Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 513am EDT Wednesday September 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Shower chance for late Thu / Thu night. 2) Dry and pleasant Friday into the start of the weekend. 3) Wet weather increasingly likely later in the weekend and possibly carrying into the first half of next week. .KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level ridge in place and centered SW of the area should keep the region predominantly dry through tonight and into early Thursday. Heigheights begin to low some late Thursday into Thursday night. With the approach of a cold front the relatively higher chance of showers should be late in the day Thursday and during Thursday night. Latest consensus of the CAM guidance suggest that the activity initially will have difficulty holding together as it translates east, with any activity right along the cold front perhaps holding together some as it slides east. Essentially carried chance to slight chance Probability of Precipitation from NW to SE very late in the day Thu through Thu night. There have been some runs of the NAM suggesting more of a shower or t-storm chance during the day Thursday, with the NAM showing more of a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) for Thu night. For now this solution is not supported by other guidance and thus these more aggressive NAM solution(s) appears unlikely at this time. The cold front is forecast by NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) and AI consensus to get off the coast by 12z Friday morning. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast output at this time remains rather light. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A cooler and drier airmass will gradually work in behind the cold front during the day Friday and into Friday night. Dewpoints are forecast the gradually fall through the 60s much of the day Friday, and potentially into the middle and upper 40s later Friday night. This would allow outlying areas to fall into the upper 40s and 50s with respect to minimum temperatures by Saturday morning. With high pressure getting further east during Saturday afternoon and a developing easterly flow daytime temperatures across portions of the area may struggle to get out of the upper 60s to begin the weekend. .KEY MESSAGE 3... During Saturday night as high pressure departs the New England coast a warm front will approach from the west. This will bring more clouds Saturday night and the likelihood of rain towards Sunday morning. Currently carrying likely Probability of Precipitation throughout the day Sunday, with high end chance Probability of Precipitation Sunday night. Afterwards there is some question as to where the front ultimately locks up during the first half of next week with a suggestion that the front goes quasi- stationary. Some NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) deterministic runs have shown the front nudging to the south and allowing some high pressure to build from the north, while the consensus of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) and AI guidance suggests the front remains nearby or at least close enough to bring an ongoing chance of showers / rain for Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is below average at this time with uncertainty around the positioning of the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time period may average slightly below normal with guidance indicating an onshore easterly flow. Marine High pressure remains in place through today, before slowly sliding south of the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain weak throughout this time frame with conditions remaining well below advisory levels. Towards late Friday into Friday night marginal small craft conditions may develop for portions of the ocean waters behind a cold front on a NNW wind. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure building to the north. The high will move off the New England coast Saturday night into Sunday allowing the winds to become more onshore. Marginal small craft conditions are possible on all waters by Sunday. Rip Currents... For today the rip current risk should be low for the majority of the day with the surf only getting to around a foot. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all south-facing Long Island beaches on Thursday, especially as a SE swell increases under an increasing southerly wind wave in the afternoon. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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