Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Early This Evening.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| 350 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
A cold front moves well offshore this evening. High pressure will then build in from the west Wednesday, slide to the northeast of the area Wed night and then remain stationary through the end of the week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
745pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
A cold front moves well offshore this evening. High pressure will then build in from the west Wednesday, slide to the northeast of the area Wednesday night and then remain stationary through the end of the week. A warm front lifts north through the region Friday, allowing a seasonally hot airmass to build in through the beginning of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
The back edge of the rain shield continues to track ewd at about 55 mph per radar. Based on this speed the rain will exit Montauk by 1Z.
Drying conditions tonight with advection of much cooler and drier Canadian continental airmass into the region. High cloud deck will likely be slow to push southeast of the region till Wednesday morning.
Comfortable to chilly night, with low temps in the 40s interior and 50 for the coast with dewpoints in the 40s.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
Longwave northern stream trough will dominate the period, with embedded shortwave sliding through New England on Wednesday and then east Wednesday Night.
At the surface, high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, and then moves east Wednesday night.
Sunny and unseasonably cool day on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s. Good radiational cooling conditions Wednesday Night for far outlying areas with lows in the 40s, and 50s to near 60s for urban centers.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
High pressure will continue to ridge into the area on Thu, although the center of the high will be over the Atlantic. This will keep temps slightly below normal, along with fair wx. A warm front then lifts nwd thru the area on Fri. This could allow for some scattered showers and tstms to develop as early as Thu night ahead of the front with elevated instability. Additional chances on Fri in the vicinity of the front. Heigheights increase then thru Sat. There could be a few showers and tstms, but increasing subsidence and a developing mid level cap will tend to suppress things. As the upper ridge strengthens over the area Sun-Tue, both the subsidence and cap should continue to inhibit widespread convection. It is possible it is dry across the whole area Sun-Tue. There is some uncertainty with the strength and position of the upper ridge this far out, so for now the consensus approach was used with the NBM generally followed. Even though the probability of precipitation have trended down in some areas, they may not end up being low enough. Although not unusual for this time of year, we will probably get to heat wave criteria for the usual hot spots of nern NJ and perhaps elsewhere for Sat or Sunday thru Tue.followed.
Small Craft Advisory in effect for all ocean waters tonight for combination, and east of Fire Island Inlet through Wednesday morning for combo of 4-5 ft S swell and marginal NW SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind gusts this afternoon and again tonight. Winds expected to gradually decrease Wednesday aft/eve, with seas falling below.
Winds and waves will be below Small Craft Advisory levels Thu and Fri with high pressure departing. The ocean will be very close to Small Craft Advisory criteria over the weekend and into Monday both for winds and seas. The protected waters area more mrgnl, with the eastern Sound and bays standing a better chance of hitting criteria.
On average, 1/4 to 1/2 inch of additional rainfall for LI and CT, particularly eastern portions through this evening. 1/10 inch or less to the west.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Tue.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A high rip current risk continues at the ocean beaches through Wednesday due to continued 4 ft @ 8 sec southerly swell. Surf height with this combo should be 3-5 ft, highest for Suffolk County beaches.
Increasing astronomical tides and long period swells will have vulnerable spots in southern Nassau approaching and possibly touching minor flood thresholds this evening.
This localized potential is there Wednesday Night as well, but a bit more widespread minor coastal flood impacts are possible for vulnerable coastal communities with the Thu Night high tide in response to a E/NE flow ahead of a weak wave and astronomical tides peaking.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Wednesday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.