Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas Around 3 Ft. Slight Chance Of Light Rain Late. |
| Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Chance Of Light Rain. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Chance Of Light Rain In The Evening. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 423pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022 Synopsis High pressure builds into the region tonight, then a weak wave of low pressure passes to our south on Thursday. A warm front approaches on Friday, but may not move all the way through the area as it is quickly followed by a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure builds in over the weekend into Monday. Another frontal system will likely impact the area in the middle of next week. Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning High pressure builds in from the NW with a nearly zonal flow aloft. Dry weather through the night with clouds increasing during the late night hours. This will help prevent temperatures from falling into the 50s for the northernmost suburbs, where lows should end up in the low 60s. Expecting lower 70s for NYC metro, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night Weak high pressure remains in place through the period, however a weak low pressure center/MCV emerges off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the morning. Most of the rainfall with this system remains to our south, however most of the guidance shows at least a little rainfall over or close to our southern zones with some timing differences. The rainfall might be more directly associated with convergence near the coastal locations with an easterly wind flow and weak troughing setting up nearby. Not enough confidence to go with likely PoPs, but will bump up Probability of Precipitation from the previous forecast. Moisture is somewhat shallow, so any rain would probably be on the lighter side, and will leave out mention of thunder with not enough lift and CAPE. Rain chances then diminish through Thursday night with the weak low center heading farther out to sea. Easterly flow and/or clouds will hold high temperatures to the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is below normal. Low temperatures will be near normal in the mid 60s to around 70. Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday Have continued the trend in decreasing Probability of Precipitation and thunderstorm chances on Friday. Moisture increases briefly during the day as a warm front begins to make its way through the area, but it likely does not push all the way north as a cold front quickly follows. The greatest chance for any showers will be Friday afternoon and for the western half of the area as the cold front moves through. Instability continues to look unimpressive, but an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out for NYC north and west. High pressure builds in behind the cold frontal passage and will allow for a dry, mostly sunny weekend and start of next week. Aloft, an upper trough over the northeast will gradually push off the New England coast on Saturday. While the core of the trough will move away towards the Maritimes, troughing looks to persist along the eastern seaboard through Sunday. The troughing will help keep the southern ridging well to the south and west, which is also where any significant heat will be located. Highs Saturday will be right around normal values, low to mid 80s, and Sunday will be just a touch cooler. Dewpoints lower behind the cold frontal passage early Saturday and will allow for a drier feel to the air. There continues to be phenomenal agreement across the global models with the handling of the next frontal system that will affect the area. The upper troughing weakens along the eastern seaboard as heigheights begin to rise ahead of the next digging shortwave across the Great Lakes. Surface low pressure likely passes well to our north and west, but will drag associated fronts through our area. A warm front likely moves through sometime Tuesday, eventually followed by a cold frontal passage. This frontal system brings chances for showers later Tuesday through Thursday and a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Marine Winds shift from northerly this evening to easterly late tonight and increase to near 15 kt Thursday morning before diminishing in the afternoon and night. Top of the boundary layer shows winds around 25 kt during Thursday, but with the onshore direction, gusts should remain below 25 kt. WNA wave guidance shows seas reaching 5 ft during Thursday with help from an easterly swell, but thinking is that waves prevail just below this height. Sub-advisory conditions are therefore forecast through Thursday night. Winds and waves remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through much of the long term period. Early to mid next week low pressure will pass to our north and east and bring with it the next chance for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. S-SW winds likely pick up to Tuesday as well as building seas. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. Tides / Coastal Flooding There is a moderate risk of rip current development on Thursday. However, there is potential for localized higher rip current risk along north/south oriented structures like jetties and groins. There is a low risk of rip current development on Friday NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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