Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Smoke Early This Afternoon, Then Areas Of Smoke Late. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. Smoke. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Nw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Areas Of Smoke In The Morning, Then Patchy Smoke In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Patchy Smoke. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Areas Of Smoke In The Morning. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers And Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 448pm EDT Thu July 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 18Z Aviation. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities and air quality through tonight. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect until midnight. 2) Isolated showers and thunderstorms appear less likely this evening with the focus for thunderstorm development over southern NJ. Much better chances for precipitation return on Saturday. .KEY MESSAGE 1... Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to affect the Tri State region tonight. Looking at visibility and air quality data, the thickest smoke seems to extend from northern MI across Ontario and down through much of southern NY/northern PA, and just to our south into central NJ. The latest hi-res guidance continues to indicate this smoke will spread into our region later this afternoon into tonight, once again lowering visibilities and air quality. It will persist overnight tonight, then it should be shunted south of our area Friday morning as a weak frontal boundary/surface trough pushes southward. Unfortunately, there are indications that this smoke could lift back north later Friday into Friday night a flow turns back toward the S/SW. Regardless, Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for the entire region until midnight tonight, so please continue to take proper precautions. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Thunderstorm development this afternoon so far has focused along a warm front running through the Philadelphia metro area, with storm motion to the ESE. Smoke to the north has inhibited most Cumulus clouds development north of there, but there is an area of Cumulus clouds drifting SE from the Poconos and NW NJ, and latest CAM's do develop isolated precipitation in association with this, so will leave slight chance precipitation mention in for the NYC metro area in for late today. Much like yesterday, if something does develop, it could quickly become strong given ample shear, but there's still a lot of uncertainty if anything will be able to form. We've stayed with slight chance Probability of Precipitation for now, but wouldn't be completely surprised if we see one or two thunderstorms Probability of Precipitation up late this afternoon into the early evening. Movement will be quick and coverage isolated, so don't anticipate a washout by any means. Better chances for widespread rain arrive Saturday into Saturday night, when a shortwave trough digs down into the Great Lakes and swings across eastern Canada/NE CONUS. Increasing SW flow ahead of the incoming trough will allow a deep moist airmass to lift northward into our region on Saturday, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) forecast to potentially exceed 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will become fairly widespread, particularly later Saturday into Saturday evening. Flow should be quick enough to keep individual cells moving enough to preclude significant flooding concerns, but heavy rainfall rates will be possible given warm cloud depths 13+ kft. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. We remain under a Marginal Risk (1/4) in the Day 3 ERO. Sunday is looking decidedly drier as models indicate a cold front will sweep across the region from the northwest during the morning hours. Both weekend days will have highs in the mid to upper 80s, but Sunday will be much more comfortable that Saturday, with dewpoints a good 5-10 degrees lower than Saturday. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond appear likely on the ocean waters and eastern Sound late day Sat, with southerly gusts up to 25 kt developing. These conditions should continue into Sat night on the ocean, while seas also build to 5 ft. The hazardous seas could linger E of Fire Island Inlet into Sunday before lowering. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond also possible on the ocean Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday ahead of another frontal system. Rip Currents A moderate rip current risk is place today and Friday, as swells and winds continue to weaken relative to those on Wednesday. Both days feature some onshore flow, with SW flow 10-15 kt today and S around 10 kt on Friday. SW swells gradually lower to 2 ft (5-6 sec periods) during this time. Outlook: A high rip current risk appears likely for for late day Sat as S flow increases to 15-20 kt, with seas building to 4-5 ft and water levels ebbing toward a late afternoon low tide. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. NY... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Friday night for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. Marine None. |
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