Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight, Then Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Wed Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
706pm EST Sat Dec 3 2022
A cold front moves through early this evening. High pressure then builds in through Sunday night and moves through the Canadian Maritimes Monday. A broad area of low pressure then impacts the weather Tuesday through Wednesday. Another storm system potentially passes nearby toward the end of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Cold front is now through a portion of the forecast area with a sharp drop in dewpoints noted within the obs. Showers ahead of the cold front will be exiting east early this evening. Gusts not as strong as for the rest of the night as they were a few hours back now that low level jet has shifted east. Still, gusts 30-40 mph possible over the next few hours. Gusts after midnight mainly below 25 mph. Clouds will diminish, and overnight lows will be near seasonal normals.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday
High pressure builds into the region through Sunday night, moving east late Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal normals, especially Sunday night as winds decouple under clear conditions. Weak warm advection sets up late Sunday night and continues into Monday as the high shifts east and a return flow develops. Temperatures will return to near normal levels.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
Polar vortex remains spinning over central Canada during the first part of the long term forecast. Ridging well to its east will help surface high pressure to slowly build toward the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday night. At the same time, a piece of energy rotating around the periphery of the vortex will help develop a broad and weak area of low pressure that will push in from the west, and remain weak as it runs into the ridging to the east.
Rain becomes possible late Monday night primarily north and west of the city. Decent agreement among the models regarding sufficiently warm air aloft for the chance of a brief period of freezing rain well NW of the city before surface temps warm up above freezing. Rain otherwise spreads west to east across the entire forecast area during Tuesday and slows its eastern progression due to the ridge to the east. Rain therefore remains likely Tuesday night into a portion of Wednesday.
High pressure is then allowed to build in from the NW Wednesday night into Thursday as the center of the polar vortex along with a spoke of energy shift north and allow a confluent flow over the Great Lakes. Lingering showers will be possible mainly during the evening hours of Wednesday night, but with some uncertainty regarding the exit timing of this system and when the next one enters, will leave in slight chance Probability of Precipitation late Wednesday night through Thurs night. The next system arrives from the west as southern stream energy ejects NE out of the Southwest and reaches the Ohio Valley Friday morning. Associated surface low then shifts east from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic during Friday as high pressure to the north tries to suppress the system. Overrunning precipitation will be possible here Friday, possibly during Friday night as well. Precip type this far out with given uncertainties is a low confidence forecast, but for now will go with primarily rain. A wintry mix may however eventually develop in some areas depending on the magnitude of cold air introduced by high pressure trying to build in from the north. Then with the storm out to sea, Saturday is probably dry as high pressure strengthens over the region.
High temperatures are expected to be above normal Tuesday through Thursday, then closer to normal for Friday and Saturday.
A cold front moves through the waters early this evening preceded by gale force gusts across the eastern ocean waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) now in effect for all other waters. For the non-ocean waters, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) ends late tonight, but on the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet, seas likely linger above 5 ft thru mid-morning Sunday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be needed on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet probably into early afternoon once the Gale Warning expires or is canceled. Once SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions end, winds and seas remain below advisory levels through Monday as high pressure builds into the waters.
Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds continue through Tuesday. Seas on the ocean probably build to advisory levels Tuesday night ahead of a weak, but broad low pressure system and remain elevated through Thursday morning. Winds probably fall short of criteria during this period, so it appears that the non-ocean waters remain below advisory criteria through the entire long term forecast period.
No hydrologic impacts are expected into next week. An inch to an inch and a half of rainfall is anticipated for Tuesday through Wednesday, but will be falling over a long duration of time, so no flooding concerns with event this at this point.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Sunday for ANZ355.