Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers This Evening. Chance Of Showers With Isolated Tstms After Midnight.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
828pm EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2020
A warm front will approach tonight and move through by daybreak, followed by an approaching cold front on Wednesday. This front will stall and then dissipate nearby Wednesday night through Thursday. Another cold front will then move through late Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by high pressure for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
Forecast is on track with only minor changes made to reflect current conditions.
A deep-layered WNW flow aloft will serve to send a series of disturbances into the area the next couple of days, the first of which will be tonight, triggering a round of scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The great instability will reside from the NYC metro and west. In this case, it's elevated with no severe threat. Any rainfall tonight will be brief and mainly less than quarter of an inch. There is some uncertainty with the guidance as to where this cluster tonight tracks, thus the chance Probability of Precipitation (50).
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to around 60, a few degrees above normal. It will also become increasingly humid as dew points rise through the 50s.
There is a moderate risk for rip currents at the ocean beaches through this evening due to a east to southeast swell.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
The combination of an approaching cold front, enhanced 850-500 mb flow (40-60kt), along with a convectively induced vort, raises the concern for a potential linear MCS impacting the area Wednesday afternoon. The storm prediction center has portions of the area under a slight and marginal risk with the exception of far southeast CT. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts with straight-line hodographs. Small bowing segments will be possible with 0-3km shear vectors greater than 30 kt from the W/NW. The greatest instability will across NE NJ and the NYC metro, where CAPE values above 2000 J/kg are forecast, diminishing as one goes north and east.
Limiting factors include a mid level cap (850-700 mb) and potential convective debris from upstream activity. The latter of which could have an impact on daytime heating and thus surface based instability. For the time, used a model consensus for high temps, which was higher than MOS, which gets many locations into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Farther east and along the coast, reading will be a bit cooler.
SW winds will also gusts into the 20s, especially at the coast.
Any lingering convection pushes offshore by early evening with the cold front slowly sagging through the region and washing out.
There is a high risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Wednesday due to a 5 ft south to southeast long period swells.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
Dry conditions are expected through Thursday morning as the frontal boundary remains to our south. The old frontal boundary will then head north as a warm front, bringing unsettled conditions back into the area Thursday afternoon. There is some question as to whether this front makes it all the way through and north of the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Regardless, with the frontal boundary in the vicinity, there will be chances for precipitation into Friday. Thereafter, a cold front will approach from the west, continuing the chances through Friday night. The cold front will push off shore around daybreak Saturday. However, chances for precipitation will continue as the associated upper level trough moves through, the axis of which will move through Saturday night.
There looks to be enough surface based CAPE and lifted indices from 0 to -8 C for at least some isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours for portions of the interior Friday and Saturday. Will have to monitor to see if these thunderstorms will be more widespread and/or strong to severe.
With uncertainty in exactly where any showers and thunderstorms will occur this far out, POPs were capped at chance, and at this time, there is no period in the long term forecast that looks like it will be a total washout.
Seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday as southerly flow ahead of these frontal systems keeps this type of air mass in place.
Canadian high pressure builds in for Sunday into the beginning of next week, bringing in a noticeably cooler, less humid air mass. An omega block sets up across the CONUS, with troughing in the east and west, and ridging across the plains. There is the potential for some showers Sunday into Sunday night as a vorticity max associated with the East Coast trough moves through, but right now, there is not enough confidence to include any POPs.
A gradually strengthening SW flow on Wednesday could bring seas to around 5 ft by evening. Gusts are likely to stay below 25 kt due to an inversion over the waters. Confidence is not high enough to issue an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time.
Lack of a strong pressure gradient will keep winds below 25 kt from Thursday onward across all coastal waters.
Seas will remain 4 to 5 feet for the eastern 2/3 of the ocean waters through the first half of Thursday night, before subsiding slightly into Friday morning. However, the eastern ocean zone may see 5 ft seas linger into Friday. Waves will remain below 5 ft from Friday night onward.
Minor nuisance poor drainage flooding is possible with strong convection on Wednesday. Storms will be moving quickly to the southeast, thus alleviating a strong flood threat.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A southerly swell and rising astronomical tides could aid in some coastal locations approaching minor coastal flood benchmarks for the Wednesday evening high tide cycle. Potentially more widespread minor coastal flooding could occur Thursday night and Friday night during high tide cycles as we approach a full moon. Full moon occurs on Friday.
Wednesday night high tidal minor coastal flooding looks to be localized to some locations within the South Shore Bays and parts of coastal Fairfield CT. Thursday night and Friday night high tidal minor coastal flooding looks to be more widespread, along the South Shore Bays and the Western Long Island Sound coastlines. Thursday night could also present some minor coastal flooding during high tide for some of the coastlines of Lower NY Harbor.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.
KOKX WSR-88D radar will be down until approximately June 15 for the pedestal refurbishment.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk from 6am EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None.