Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely This Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm This Evening.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
508pm EDT Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis: A warm front moves across the region late this afternoon into this evening, followed later tonight by a cold front. The cold front will move southeast of Long Island overnight. High pressure gradually builds in from the north and west Friday and Friday night. High pressure slides south of Long Island Saturday with a weak cold front bringing showers Saturday night into early Sunday. High pressure returns for Memorial Day followed by a warm front Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
First round of convection is now largely over the ocean waters, with rain across Long Island and Connecticut. Clouds are clearing again in its wake, allowing for additional diurnal heating, though the window for increased surface-based heating is limited as it's now late in the day. It's likely that more favorable conditions will exist farther west of the forecast area.
Regardless, water vapor imagery shows the next vorticity maximum moving into central New York and Pennsylvania. Convection associated with this secondary wave has largely been shallow thus far, and surface convergence appears to be limited where the cu field is increasing, as flow as become more westerly. As the cold front moves through later in the evening, surface convergence will increase, and may allow for more additional, deeper convective initiation/development in response to the forcing for ascent. Mid-level lapse rates upstream remain in the 6.5-7.0 C/km range, which combined with the increasing deep layer shear should be supportive of a few stronger updrafts and possibly hail. By the time the convection reaches the forecast area, it's likely that the loss of diurnal heating and the low level warm advection will strengthen the existing inversion, based around 850 mb, limiting a more widespread threat for damaging winds, as storms will largely be elevated. The greatest potential for any surface- based storms will be across the lower Hudson Valley into northeastern NJ, though this instability will be waning given the time of day. As such, the primary threats into the late evening will be hail and heavy downpours if any storm can be sustained.
After that, overnight, expecting rapidly decreasing POPs with the cold front moving south of Long Island with surface flow becoming more westerly.
Lows tonight are a narrow range from upper 50s to lower 60s (consensus with greater weight for ECS) considering the abundant clouds expected and increasing winds late tonight into early Friday
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
Ridging aloft will increase the subsidence so expecting dry conditions Friday and Friday night along with minimal clouds.
At the surface, parent low pressure moves from near Maine out into the northern Atlantic. Steep enough pressure gradient to make for a breezy day across the region Friday with wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range.
Backing of winds from low to mid levels in forecast soundings shows cold air advection. Highs forecast on Friday mainly in the lower 70s, relatively warmer at the coastline with the downslope NW flow.
For Friday night, more of a spread for low temperatures, upper 40s to upper 50s. Winds decrease and without much clouds, expecting more radiational cooling
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
High pressure builds from the Great Lakes Friday night before sliding offshore late Saturday. This will lead to dry weather and mild temperatures through Saturday. Lows Friday night will be in the 50s.
With the high just to the south on Saturday high temperatures will rise into the 70s, with cooler temperatures along the coast. Southerly flow will advect in higher dew points, but in general will be a nice afternoon with some increasing clouds later in the day.
A weak cold front will approach Saturday night into Sunday. This could bring a period of showers into early Sunday before the front pushes offshore by Sunday afternoon.
Heigheights then rise behind the shortwave that drives the front east with a ridge building behind for Memorial Day. That ridge then becomes quite anomalous with a significant warming trend likely into mid-week.
An approaching warm front may bring showers Tuesday followed by dry weather Wednesday and another system on Thursday.
Some thunderstorms could produce brief gale force gusts on the waters into this evening, mainly for waters surrounding Western Long Island.
Ocean seas increase to 5 ft tonight with wind gusts of 25 kt across the ocean. Small Craft Advisory will remain for the ocean waters through tonight. Non-ocean waters are forecast to stay below Small Craft Advisory through tonight. For Friday though, efficient vertical mixing on the NW flow will allow for widespread Small Craft Advisory gusts 25-30 kt for all waters. The Small Craft Advisory gusts could linger into early Friday evening. Ocean seas forecast stays near 5 ft Friday and below 5 ft Friday night.
Waters will remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions as high pressure moves offshore Saturday and a weak front passes through Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms through the late evening may produce quick heavy downpours. Around a quarter to four tenths of an inch of rain is forecast. Locally higher amounts are possible. Local minor urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible with any series of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
No hydrologic impacts expected Friday through next week
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 8pm EDT Friday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.