Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 14 Seconds And Nw 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 13 Seconds, Becoming S 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Occasionally To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. Chance Of Showers. Isolated Tstms After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 5 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: W 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...W Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037pm EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Synopsis A cold front south of the area becomes stationary tonight before moving back north as a warm front late tonight into Sunday with developing low pressure moving into western Pennsylvania. The low drags a cold front through Monday morning as the low tracks along the New England coast and into eastern Canada. High pressure gradually builds in through the start of next weekend. At the same time, a few surface troughs may swing through the area early in the week. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning The forecast remains on track this evening. Dry, quiescent conditions continue into the overnight. A cold front south of the region continues to move slowly south through this evening and then becomes stationary before moving back north as a warm front toward Sunday morning. Meanwhile weak high pressure was across the area. The latest trends bring the wave of low pressure along the warm front farther to the north late tonight with the best isentropic forcing mainly north of the region. As a result, have lowered probabilities and delayed onset until toward 10Z Sunday. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday The warm front will be north of the area by midday Sunday, and any precipitation that may occur will be across the northern portions of the region as the best forcing remains to the north. At the same time an upper trough amplifies into the northeast, developing into a closed low over southeastern Canada late Sunday night into Monday. With the approach of the cold front late Sunday and Sunday night and some forcing and instability developing showers will become possible in the warm sector. Then during Sunday evening into Sunday night, elevated CAPE increases along with some instability and increased shear, a slight chance of thunder remains, and went with areal wording to indicate the lower chances of thunder. By Monday morning, as the cold front begins to move into the northwestern portions of the forecast area, the CAPE and instability will be east of the area. The cold front moves through by early afternoon with precipitation ending. This front will bring a much cooler airmass into the region for the beginning of the week. Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front very gradually through the start of next weekend. At the same time, a few surface troughs may swing through the area early in the week. Aloft, there will be an upper level low over the northeast US with a trough axis still to our west Monday night. This looks to swing through Tuesday night into Wednesday with heigheights increasing thereafter through the start of next weekend. This pattern will usher in the coldest airmass of the season, with well below normal temperatures through Wednesday night and a gradual warming trend after that. Dry weather is expected, although can not completely rule out some wraparound light rain or snow showers across far interior locations. Gusty northwest winds likely continue through about Wednesday. While the nigheights will be cold Monday and Tuesday night, not expecting frost with winds remaining elevated and higher dewpoint depressions. However, patchy to areas of frost is possible Wednesday night and Thursday night as winds lighten. Marine With weak high pressure over the waters tonight, and a cold front becoming stationary south of the waters, winds and seas remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels across the forecast waters. The front moves north late tonight and passes across the waters Sunday morning as an associated wave of low pressure approaches from the west. With an increasing southerly flow behind the warm front and an increased pressure gradient as the low approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night and northeast Monday, wind gusts and ocean seas are expected to reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by midday Sunday. Also, the southerly wind gusts across the south shore Long Island bays will be near 25 kt. Have issued an advisory for the ocean and south shore bays beginning 16Z Sunday and continuing into Sunday night, 06Z Monday, for the bays, and through Monday for the ocean. With a strong and gusty northwest flow developing Monday behind the cold front and low, small craft gusts are likely across all the forecast waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue on all waters the first half of Monday night and then after that SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions only continue on the ocean waters. A gusty NW flow could continue through about Wednesday, before conditions lower below SCA. With high pressure in control thereafter, quiet conditions are expected over all waters. Hydrology There are no hydrologic concerns through the start of next weekend. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2am EDT Monday for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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