Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY
1239am EST Monday Dec 4 2023
A double-barreled low pressure system, extending from the eastern Great Lakes to off the southeast New England coast will lift slowly north and east through Monday. Weak high pressure will then build in Monday night through Tuesday, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night. This high moves offshore Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system approaches for next Sunday.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
Weak ridging across the area in between surface lows to the NE and E will break down over the next few hours and a west flow will gradually strengthen across the area. Still though, with weak flow and residual low-level moisture in place, patchy fog will be around, especially across the interior. The last of any showers were exiting eastern LI/SE CT. Lows will be in the low to middle 40s.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
Weak high pressure tries to build into the area from the south but retreating low pressure is slow to move out. The area remains in the vicinity of an upper level trough which will likely continue to bring cloudy skies, despite some clearing Monday morning. While skies are expected to become overcast Monday afternoon, a lack of moisture and low level forcing will keep the area dry. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, about average for this time of year.
A northwest wind advects drier and cooler air into the area Monday night and into early Tuesday morning allowing for skies to generally clear through the night. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The NYC metro may remain near 40.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The jet stream going into midweek will be dipping into the Southeast US. The jet stream pattern shifts thereafter with more NW flow jet level orientation Thursday with ridging going into Friday. The ridging continues into Saturday before a more sharp trough and associated jet streak approach for next Sunday.
A colder airmass will be in place Tuesday through Thursday. The airmass then moderates and eventually gets to above normal temperatures to close out the week.
At the surface, the pressure gradient will increase towards midweek. Low pressure develops well offshore out in the Atlantic with high pressure from SE Canada through the Great Lakes and near the Mississippi River Valley.
Models indicate a weak disturbance with some associated moisture developing in the coastal New England area early Wednesday through Wednesday evening. In the mid levels, a trough moves across with associated positive vorticity advection. This may bring some rain and/or snow showers to parts of Southeast Connecticut and Long Island. POPs are low, near 30 percent or less with much of these aforementioned sections in slight chance. Timing of precipitation will determine any localized light accumulations but with relatively higher POPs situated towards Southeast Suffolk on the South Fork, not expecting any snow accumulations with temperatures too warm. The snow showers could materialize due to wet bulb cooling.
For Thursday through Thursday night, the high pressure area to the west moves in and weakens across the region. The high pressure area eventually moves east of the area and out into the Atlantic Friday into Friday night.
Offshore high pressure Saturday will be followed by a strong frontal system approaching for next Sunday. GFS (Global Forecast System) very progressive with system while ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) develops a more mature low west of the region.
Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday with a growing chance of rain for the latter half of next weekend. With models indicating more of a frontal system moving across progressively or deepening west of the area, precipitation type favors plain rain.
Temperatures overall will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near normal Friday and then getting more above normal Friday night into next weekend.
Small Craft Advisory continues for the ocean zones through Monday afternoon. Winds may drop off here for a bit initially, but then come back up to 25-30 kt gusts late tonight and into Monday morning. Additionally, waves heigheights will be at or just above 5 feet. Winds and waves gradually subside from east to west on Monday which may allow for the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to be dropped accordingly. Widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds should largely be missed with an occasional gust to 25kt not out of the question for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Any lingering near-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts are forecast to lower to below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Tuesday afternoon. Then sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for all waters for Tuesday night. Non-ocean waters stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Wednesday and Wednesday night but ocean is forecast to have some SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts near 25 kt. Mainly below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions forecast for all waters Thursday through Friday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions become more probable for ocean waters Friday night.
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ355.