Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Mainly In Easterly Swell. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm After Midnight.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Mainly In Easterly Swell. Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY
706pm EST Monday Nov 18 2019
Low pressure passes east of New England through tonight. Several upper level disturbances also move across the region tonight and Tuesday. Another area of low pressure is expected to develop well offshore Tuesday night and move away during Wednesday. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will then cross the area on Friday, followed by a period of high pressure for the first half of the weekend. An area of low pressure may impact the area Saturday night into Sunday, before high pressure builds back into the area on Monday.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Only minor adjustments made with this update to better capture the latest temperature trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.
Closed low moving east of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will approach the region late this evening and swing through late tonight into Tuesday morning.
At the surface broad offshore low pressure continues to track NNE, well east of New England, and towards the Canadian Maritimes.
Main convergence zone, and band of light rain and drizzle, is currently focused over the NYC metro area northward into the Lower Hudson Valley. Into this evening, increasing lift ahead of the upper low and left front of strengthening ulj, combined with modest mid-level deformation, and developing surface trough should have rain become more widespread and increase to moderate intensity through the evening and overnight. Can already see this precipitation enhancement moving northeastward through central NJ, which should translate and expand into the local area through the evening. Northern and western portions of the Tri-State appear to be in favored location for heavier precip, with potential for 1/3 to 2/3 inch of precip, with lesser amounts for E LI and SE CT.
Thermal profiles are supportive of plain rain across the entire area through around 2 am. After 2-3am, potential exists for mixing with or changeover to wet snow across NW hills of Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT in response to heavier precipitation rates dynamically cooling boundary layer thermal profiles to near freezing. Potential for a slushy accumulation of less than an inch in this area, particularly highest terrain, with a reasonable worse case scenario of 1 to 2 inches. Elsewhere, not out of the questions to see a few wet snow flakes mix in with the rain overnight during peak intensity, but no accumulation expected. Steady precipitation expected to come to an end from sw to ne before daybreak, with just some lingering showers coming to an end Tuesday morning.
Low generally in the lowers 30s interior, to mid to upper 30s coast.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Mean troughing will be the rule, with vigorous shortwave/closed low pivoting northeast of the region in the morning, followed by weak shortwave ridging in the afternoon, and then mean trough axis approaching for Tuesday Night. At the surface, one low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday, with a low developing off the SE US coast tonight into Tuesday, tracking northeast farther offshore for Tuesday Night.
In terms of sensible weather, generally dry conditions with low level westerly flow and drying. Perhaps a break of sun Tuesday morning, but high and mid clouds increase ahead of the approaching trough axis for Tuesday afternoon/Night. Can't rule our an isolated shower/sprinkle for city/coast and possibly flurry interior late Tuesday Night as upper trough/low moves into the region.
Otherwise, temps a few degrees below seasonable on Tuesday/Tuesday Night with highs in the mid to upper 40s Interior, and upper 40s to around 50 city/coast. Lows generally in the lower to mid 30s Interior, upper 30s to around 40 coast.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
An upper trough over the area to start the long term period will shift east through the day on Wednesday, allowing upper ridging and surface high pressure to build across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. This will usher in a period of tranquil weather with temperatures closer to normal, albeit with a good deal of cloud cover on Wednesday under the upper trough.
By the end of the work week, an area of low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will send a cold front through the region on Friday. Fairly significant discrepancies continue between the available guidance, with a 6 to 12 hour difference in the timing of the frontal passage. The GFS continues to be noticeably more amplified with this system with more phasing between the northern and southern streams, resulting in a slower frontal passage. Will continue to lean towards the faster, less amplified, solutions, which would bring scattered showers to the region during the day on Friday. The best chance for showers will be north and west of NYC.
The model differences that develop on Friday will continue to have ramifications on the forecast into the weekend. Once the front pushes east of the area, models are in reasonable agreement that high pressure builds back into the region on Saturday, but diverge again thereafter. In the operational European, which does not phase the northern and southern streams with the Friday system, the high is a more transient feature, quickly moving off to the northeast as a southern stream surface low approaches Saturday night. On the other hand, high pressure dominates through the weekend in the GFS, with any lingering southern stream energy sliding south of the region and off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday night. The Canadian lies somewhere in the middle, with high pressure forcing the developing southern stream low off the coast well south of the region, keeping the area dry. Given the uncertainty at this time frame, will keep at least slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure then builds back into the region for the start of the new work week.
After remaining a few degrees below normal on Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures on Friday will rise well into the 50s ahead of the front, several degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures then fall back into the upper 40s to around 50 for the remainder of the period. With the exception of Thursday night ahead of the approaching front, overnight lows will generally range from the upper 20s to around 30 across the interior to the mid to upper 30s in the New York City metro, near normal for the latter half of November.
A Small Craft Advisory continues on the ocean waters through the day on Tuesday as rough ocean seas in long period easterly swells will only slowly subside. Otherwise, wind gusts have fallen below 25 kt on most of the waters as the pressure gradient continues to relax this evening, and the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the eastern Long Island Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays was allowed to expire.
Winds and seas will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds towards the region from the west and an area of low pressure well offshore deepens. Winds and seas then decrease below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by Thursday morning as the high builds across the waters.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return ahead of an approaching frontal system on Friday. By Friday night, ocean seas will increase to 5-8 ft with wind gusts around 30 kt on the ocean. Conditions then subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels by late in the day on Saturday.
1/3rd to 2/3rd of an inch of rain is likely tonight. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast period.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is only a low prob of approaching/touching minor flood thresholds across the south shore bays of LI and Queens with Tue aft high tides, otherwise water levels are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds for the remainder of the week.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.