Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1026pm EDT Fri August 7 2020
A stationary front will remain south of the area through early Saturday. High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday, then move out into the western Atlantic late Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches. The front will slowly pass across through Thursday, then stall to the south on Friday.
Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
A stationary front will remain to the south, with a few very weak disturbances riding along the boundary. Aloft, a deamplifying trough will move through. Associated showers over NYC and western Long Island are dissipating, and only expect isolated activity overnight.
As far as temperatures, mostly cloudy skies and humid conditions will keep temperatures from dropping too much. Expect lows to range from the mid 60s to around 70.
Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Saturday Night
The stationary front will very slowly sink south through the period. With much of the forcing for any showers and thunderstorms to remain south of the area, not much in the way of showers and thunderstorms are expected. With slightly warmer conditions inland, instability will be higher, so slightly higher Probability of Precipitation (chance) is warranted across northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. Otherwise, just a slight chance is expected. Many of the mesoscale models support this thinking.
Temperatures will continue to run at or just below normal on Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to continued light northeasterly flow. Lows at night will continue to be warm ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
Upper ridging will be gradually building into the northeast Sunday as a weak shortwave moves into the ridge during the afternoon, passing mainly to the north. There will be increasing CAPE and instability during the day and isolated convection will be possible along sea breeze boundaries with increased convergence. The GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) do indicate some light precipitation Sunday afternoon. At this time have not included slight chance probabilities, however did increase POPs with sea breeze development.
The building ridge will usher in increasing heat and humidity into mid week. There is increasing consensus and confidence that portions of the region will reach mid 90s heat indices Monday through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, as temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The ridge will keep another shortwave moving to the north Monday. The only real change in the long term forecast is the slower trend in the longwave closed low moving across southern Canada and into the northern tier of the plains and upper midwest into the midweek period. This will delay the approach of a weak cold front, with Tuesday remaining mostly dry. There may be a few afternoon thunderstorms along the periphery of the ridge, and have slight chances into the Lower Hudson Valley.
As the mid and upper flow becomes more parallel to the cold front, the front will slow its eastward progression, and convection will once again be mainly to the west and north Wednesday. The front is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday and then stall south of the region Friday.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Wednesday as lack of any pressure gradient keeps winds on the light side.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.