Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Light Rain Likely This Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Rain, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
| 402 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Weak low pressure along a frontal boundary moves across the waters today, and then stalls to the south tonight. The remnants of Zeta impacts the waters on Thursday, followed by a secondary coastal low Thursday night into the first half of Friday. Strong high pressure will quickly build Friday night and into the first half of the weekend. A cold front then moves through late Sunday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
509am EDT Wednesday Oct 28 2020
Weak low pressure along a frontal boundary moves across today, and then stalls south of the area tonight. The remnants of Zeta impacts the area on Thursday, followed by a secondary coastal low Thursday night into the first half of Friday. Strong high pressure will quickly build Friday night and into the first half of the weekend. A cold front then moves through late Sunday, followed by high pressure for the early part of the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
A mainly cloudy and unsettled start to the day can be expected as weak low pressure moves through with the bulk of any light rain and shower activity expected to be across northern most sections for the first half of the day. Conditions overall are expected to improve during this afternoon. Seasonable temperatures are expected with light winds.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday
Dry conditions will take place during the evening on a light west wind. The frontal system that moved through earlier will stall south of the area. Attention will then turn down to the south over the Gulf states. The remnants of Zeta will push northeast and the leading edge of that moisture will get drawn north and arrive into the area approaching daybreak Thursday morning. The steady rain should get into the region for late Thursday morning across southern sections, then into Thursday afternoon further north. The winds will increase late in the day on Thursday and into Thursday evening, especially closer to the coast as the remnants of Zeta gets closer and high pressure over the Great Lakes begins to press east creating a good pressure gradient over the area. The steady rain will continue into Thursday evening, but then taper to some degree towards the late evening and the first half of the overnight as the remnants of Zeta push to the east and northeast.
The upper level trough and mid level forcing will then approach for late Thursday night into Friday morning. A strong vort max will pass nearby and just south of the area during Friday morning. This should reignite light to occasionally moderate rain across the area. As the upper level trough approaches colder air will also begin to press down from the north on the back side of the system. This should lead to northern most areas going over to a wintry mix and snow towards daybreak on Friday. With a relatively warm ground and marginal surface temperatures the expectation for now is for little in the way of accumulations across northern sections. This will have to be monitored on subsequent forecast cycles.
Towards Friday afternoon much of the global guidance has the system looking progressive enough that the trough axis gets east of the area by 18z Friday. This will lead to precipitation ending across most of the area for the early afternoon as clearing begins to takes shape. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts have been nudged down from previous forecasts, with the current rainfall totals expected to range generally from 1.5 to 2 inches.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
High pressure will build into the region Friday night. Dew points drop dramatically into the 20s and 30s particularly for our inland counties. This sets up the possibility of widespread freezing temperatures Saturday morning. The dry air zeros out the rain chances through most of the weekend. The high slides off to the east Sunday afternoon as the next trough enters the Northeast region. The trough and low pressure system could initiate additional showers late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure is then expected to build on Monday. Temperatures fall into the 50s to start the week following the cold front.
Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will take place for today with the winds relatively light and becoming SW for this afternoon and this evening. Seas on the ocean will be mainly around 3 ft, but may momentarily approach 4 ft towards this evening, before subsiding closer to 3 ft into Thursday morning.
Seas will then begin to build later Thursday afternoon, and especially into Thursday night as the winds and waves increase from south to north. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions quickly go to gale conditions for the ocean waters during Thursday evening, followed by the non-ocean waters during Thursday night. By late Thursday night into Friday morning seas on the ocean will build to around 10 ft. Gale conditions will likely continue on the ocean during the first half of Friday, followed by small craft conditions late in the day and evening. The winds will continue to come down with the seas decreasing Friday night into Saturday morning. Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return first for the non- ocean waters some time during Friday night, followed by the ocean waters some time Saturday afternoon as high pressure settles in. Small craft conditions could then return Sunday into Sunday night as a return flow from departing high pressure and the approach of a cold front will lead to an increasing SW flow.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for Thursday into Friday morning averages around 1.5 to 2 inches. Most of this should be of fairly long duration, with only minor impacts. The period of moderate to occasionally heavier rainfall is for Thursday afternoon and evening, but nothing more than nuisance urban poor drainage type flooding is expected at this time.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
The high tide cycle on Fri is of concern for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding as astronomical high tide levels rise in association with the full moon on Halloween, and as strong NE winds bring in surge. An early look per latest guidance suggests total tide departures of at least 1-1/2 to 2 ft and locally 2-1/2 ft, with a worst case about 1/2 foot higher than that.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.