Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Sprinkles After Midnight. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Sprinkles In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 245pm EDT Sat May 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like warmth continues this weekend into Wednesday. 2) An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the the area late Wednesday. More seasonable weather to follow behind the cold front for the end of the week. 3) Cold water safety concerns continue this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s .KEY MESSAGE 1... A nearly zonal flow aloft today will be followed by significant height rises along the eastern seaboard Sunday through Tuesday. By Monday night, 500mb height anomalies will be on the order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. What this all means is much warmer weather this weekend, but the hottest days are forecast to be Tuesday and Wednesday. For these days, temperatures will be about 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Highs will get into the upper 80s to as high as 95 away from the immediate coast. The warmest readings will be north and west of NYC and interior southern CT. Gusty SW-S winds both of these days will bring in cooler maritime air in along the coast, especially across the south shore of LI. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s and possibly 90 Sunday for the warmest spots. Even coastal areas are anticipated to be into the upper 70s to low 80s. Monday poses a bit of an anomaly during this period, as a backdoor cold front passing through the area Sunday night will lead to more of a marine influence with SE winds. Many locations will see highs fall off 5 to 10 degrees with the possible exception being locations well north and west of NYC. A passing shortwave trough and strengthening confluent flow across eastern Canada and into the Northeast Sunday night look to be just enough to get the front as far NE NJ and eastern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. The front quickly returns to the north as a warm front Monday night. The S/SW flow in the warm sector Tuesday and Wednesday will bring the hottest days as previously mentioned. Heat index values could approach 95 in spots away from the coast. NBM high temperatures were blended with the NBM 10th percentile and the CONSAll to knock down highs some based on a noted warm bias early in the warm season. Expect mainly dry conditions with an isolated shower and/or sprinkle tonight with the passage of shortwave trough. There could also be an isolated late day thunderstorm north and west of NYC Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A positively tilted upper trough builds in from the NW mid to late week sending a cold front across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The boundary looks to be active with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. More seasonable temperatures are forecast for the end of the week. NBM does maintain a slight chance of showers as there are some differences in the progression of the system. More recent model guidance suggests that the the cold front pushes far enough south to allow for a slightly warmer and drier Thursday than previous runs. .KEY MESSAGE 3... There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. Marine A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect for the ocean, south shore bays, and NY Harbor this afternoon. A strengthening southerly flow today will bring a return to SCA conditions on the ocean this afternoon/early evening, as well as Lower NY Harbor and south shore bays of W LI. Occasional 25 kt are also a possibility this evening across the eastern bays and eastern sound, but this looks to be for a real short period. Winds will gradually subside the second half of Saturday night into Sunday. However, ocean seas could linger around 5 ft for much of Sunday with residual S swell. There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are anticipated Sunday night through Monday night as flow temporarily weakens under high pressure. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely redevelop on the ocean water Tuesday into Tuesday night with strengthening SW flow, potentially for all waters by Wednesday. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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