Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period 4 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Showers Likely And Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
346 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will strengthen as it drifts slowly eastward early this week. Its trailing ridge axis will drop south into south Florida ahead of an approaching front that is forecast to stall across central Florida on Thursday.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Southeast to south winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening and overnight north of Sebastian Inlet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Sunday, May 9th.
43 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
31 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
25 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
17 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401pm EDT Sunday May 9 2021
Evening-Mon...Cloud coverage has been slow to develop and has been confined to the coastal counties through earlier this afternoon. This in part as the ridge extending from the central Atlantic towards the FL peninsula retreated a bit east this afternoon and the flow became SSE and moisture was limited (around 1 inch of PWAT (Precipitable Water) from the 15z Cape sounding). However, both coasts sea breezes will develop and should collide early this evening across the interior from Lake county down to west of Lake Okeechobee. Rain chances were kept to 15-20 % through this evening for southern Osceola, Okeechobee counties. Then if any of this activity that develops survives, it could push towards the Atlantic waters but confidence is low and we could update the forecast this evening to clear it. Otherwise, low temps tonight will drop to the upper 60s to lower 70.
Ridge will continue over central FL on Monday and a similar scenario is expected with a southerly wind in the morning then shifting from the SE along the coast in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. A collision of both coasts' sea breezes could happen later in the afternoon south of Okeechobee which could push some storm activity towards Okeechobee and Osceola later in the afternoon. Elsewhere, light showers coming with the southwest flow in the afternoon could reach the local area as well. Highs will be toasty, reaching the lower 90s across the interior and upper 80s/near 90 in the immediate coast.
Monday Night-Tuesday...Surface high pressure drifting further eastward into the Atlantic, as upper-level flow becomes increasingly zonal. Dry conditions expected Monday night after afternoon showers and thunderstorms drift offshore during the evening hours. Tuesday, increasing moisture is expected to be funneled to the area from the Caribbean due southerly flow on the far western periphery of high pressure over the west-central Atlantic. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increasing to 1.75+" will generate a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Highest chances look to be over the central peninsula along the seabreeze collision, before showers and storms drift eastward towards the Atlantic waters during the evening hours.
Temperatures Tuesday morning in the upper 60s to low 70s area-wide. Then, becoming hot for the afternoon, with highs increasing to the low 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coast. Winds will be generally around 5mph or less for much of the day across the interior, before the sea breeze generates along the coast and pushes inland in the afternoon.
Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous)... An increase in rain chances will begin on Wednesday, as a frontal boundary parks over northern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible areawide, especially in the afternoon/early evening hours, with daytime heating and sea breeze interactions. The front will slowly sag further southeast into the end of the week, which means the best chance for rain will be Thursday into Thursday night, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected during the afternoon. Precipitation will slowly come to an end from the northwest to southeast Friday, once the front finally moves southeast of Florida. Drier conditions expected Saturday and Sunday, but a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out along the far southern Treasure Coast. Highs will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday before moderating due to onshore flow towards the end of the week. Rain and cloud coverage will keep temperatures slightly cooler through the end of the forecast period, with highs mainly in the low- to-mid 80s and lows in the low 60s to low 70s.
Evening-Mon...As a low pressure exits the northeast U.S. tonight and the ridge stays across the FL peninsula, the wind gradient will tighten along the southeast U.S. coast. Winds will slightly increase tonight across the local waters: to near 20 kt east of Volusia where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 4 am while if navigating on the waters east of Brevard, small craft should exercise caution. Seas east of Volusia will build to 3-4 ft tonight but will quickly subside to 2-3 ft on Mon. South of Volusia, seas will range between 2-3 ft tonight and tomorrow.
Wind gradient will relax late tonight and Monday morning, keeping winds from the south 10-15 kt.
Monday night-Friday...Southerly winds remaining around 10-15kts overnight Monday, with seas 2-3ft. Winds will relax on Tuesday, with south-southeasterly winds from 5-10kts developing in the afternoon along the sea breeze. This pattern will continue through Wednesday, before a front approaches the area on Thursday. Then, winds becoming northerly into Friday, but remaining around 10-15kts. Seas 1-3ft through mid-week, then increasing as winds veer, becoming 4-6ft into Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through the period, with activity moving from the interior to the coast during the evening hours. Chances then increasing into the end of the week, as the aforementioned front passes southward through the local area.
Monday...Wind flow will be from the south and southwest tonight and Monday morning. The east coast sea breeze will develop on Monday afternoon pushing westward, shifting winds along the coastal counties from the southeast, which will also increased moisture over the region through the start of the workweek. Minimum RH values will be in the 40-55 percent range on Monday with ERC values above 27 across some of our local counties.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.