Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20nm Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With A Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Choppy On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet.|
|Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet.|
|Friday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
1022 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021
High pressure over the southeast U.S. will push offshore over the western Atlantic with a trailing ridge axis north of the waters through the upcoming week. This will maintain a long fetch of east northeast winds over the local Atlantic waters resulting in generally hazardous boating conditions.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots gusting to around 30 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Monday, March 8th.
42 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
28 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
22 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
13 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
8 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
405am EST Monday Mar 8 2021
...Breezy With Dangerous Seas, Surf and Rip Currents Today... ...Increasing Fire Sensitivity This Afternoon... Current...Massive high pressure ridge extends from eastern Canada into the GOMEX and FL early this morning. Breezy N to NNE surface winds continue along the ECFL coast, with sustained speeds 15-20mph gusting into the L-M30s along the barrier islands and 25-30mph over the mainland near the ICW. 3.9UM IR imagery shows an increasingly expansive marine SC deck starting to impinge on the coast from the Cape southward. The leading edge of the cloud deck has been eroding as it reaches the very dry continental air mass, however during the past few hours over the Atlantic, it has been transitioning from open cell to a mix of open/closed cell. This spells a little more early morning cloud cover for the Space/Treasure Coast Counties, so will likely need to tweak the sky grids the account for this. As one might expect in a north flow regime veering onshore, current temps show a large range, from the L40s over the far north interior to the U50s-L60s near the coast from the Cape southward.
Today - Tonight
The large eastern NOAM high will expand east and elongate into the western Atlantic, causing winds to veer to NE today and ENE tonight. It will remain breezy along the coast today, but the gradient will very slowly start to relax late today into tonight. Skies will range from sunny-mostly sunny inland to partly sunny near the coast. As mentioned above, expect periods of mostly cloudy skies early for coastal areas. Max temps will reach L70s for all but the Volusia coast (U60s), with another night featuring a large temp spread...U40s for Lake/NW Volusia to L60s along coastal Martin/Saint Lucie.
Tuesday-Sunday... The upper-level trough that's been sitting over the western Atlantic over the past couple of days will finally push northeast away from the coast as the upper-level high located upstream builds. A meridional upper-level pattern will setup over CONUS as a strong ridge builds over the eastern half of the country. The breezy northeasterly winds will finally subside as the gradient loosens. A dry and quiet weather pattern will setup over FL as an upper-level high builds over the GOM with a surface high building over the western Atlantic. Easterly/northeasterly winds caused by the high over the western Atlantic will keep temperatures comfortable throughout the week with low humidity and dry conditions. Highs will gradually rise into the low-to-mid 70s throughout the first part of the workweek. Lows will drop down into the low-to-mid 50s across the typical cooler spots in the County Warning Area with lows into the upper 50s to mid 60s further south/southeast near the Treasure Coast.
A minor shortwave will attempt to move along the base of the upper- level ridge on Wednesday and into Thursday. However, models continue to show rain chances staying just south-southeast of the area off the coast of southeastern FL. Dry conditions will continue across the Space Coast through the rest of the week.
The high pressure center over the western Atlantic will continue to build and slowly retrograde southwest closer to the coast as the upper-level ridge builds through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually rise with highs reaching the low 80s by the end of the week and lows dipping down into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will become more easterly-southeasterly by the weekend as the high gets closer to the Atlantic coast and positions itself slightly southeast of the area; this will help pump in warmer temperatures into the region, in addition to, higher dew-points. Highs will reach the mid- to-upper 80s over the weekend with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Today - Tonight
Gusty NNE winds will veer NE today and ENE tonight. Speeds of 20-25kt will slowly diminish to around 15-18kt for the Volusia-Brevard waters, but will remain at or near 20kt to the south. Coupled with a lengthening fetch, this will slow the decrease in seas from 7-10ft this morning, to 5-7ft late tonight. The inherited timing for scaling back the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) form NW to SE beginning later this morning still looks solid. the only minor tweak will be to extend it for south of Sebastian Inlet, and well offshore Brevard County from 5am until noon on Tuesday.
Tuesday-Friday... Winds will trend downwards as the upper-level trough moves further away from the coast with high pressure building over the western Atlantic waters. Winds from the east-northeast will continue through most of the week from 15-20kts, gusting to around 25kts. Seas will gradually decrease to 3-6 feet across the Atlantic waters by Tuesday and continue through the week.
A fire sensitive day is ahead. While forecast wind speeds will be a little lower (13-15mph but still gusty at times) and minimum RH slightly higher (L-M30s far west interior), forecast ERC values have come up quite a bit since this past weekend. The net result is that both RH and winds will be very close to RFW thresholds, with supporting ERC values over the interior. Very high (90-100+) dispersion values are also being forecast, given the combination of strong transport winds through a deep mixed layer (4000-4500ft+).
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Surf Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern Brevard-St. Lucie.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20- 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.