Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With A Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South 5 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Feet.|
|Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 7 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet.|
Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
317 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Moderate northeast winds diminish slightly through tonight as a long period moderate to large swell builds seas up to around 7 feet in the outer waters. The swell will linger through this weekend and early next week, maintaining poor to hazardous boating conditions, especially well offshore.
Gulf Stream Hazards: Northeast winds around 10 knots with seas building to around 7 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Thursday, April 2nd. 44 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
30 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral.
24 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
14 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
9 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
317pm EDT Thu April 2 2020
Rest of Today - Tonight
Mostly clear and dry for the rest of this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Temps that are currently in the 70s will cool off into the mid to upper 50s tonight, except to around 60 degrees along the Treasure Coast barrier islands. A few rural inland spots could reach low 50s.
Friday...Area of high pressure anchored north of our region will veer our winds easterly by the afternoon. Dry conditions continue as another warm trend begins, especially west of I-95 where temps climb to the low 80s. Along the coast highs reach the upper 70s.
Fri night-Sat night...A strong low pressure will be off the northeast coast of U.S. Fri night and moving away Sat night. To its west, a high pressure will be moving towards the east coast and reaching FL during the weekend. The local pressure gradient will be weak and winds will be light and variable at night and morning with a sea breeze developing Sat afternoon. Thanks to the sea breeze, a temperature gradient will be observed in the afternoon, as temps will be regulated along the coastal areas, warming to the lower 80s while the interior will increase to the mid 80s and no rain chances.
Sunday onward (previous discussion modified)...The aforementioned high pressure will begin to move offshore of the eastern seaboard on Sunday, before parking itself over the western Atlantic through the middle of next week. The high pressure will flatten as it does so, draping its ridge axis over the southern Florida peninsula. As the mid/upper level ridge builds over the Gulf of Mexico, a series of shortwave troughs will ride over the top of it. Model guidance has been very persistent in decreasing any rain chances for Sunday over the last several days. However, latest model runs have broken the trend, with the GFS indicating a more vorticity-laden shortwave dropping into the area during the day on Saturday. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has also trended up in rainfall chances, but less enthusiastically. Thus, a slight chance of showers is forecast for Sunday. This is conservative based on the current model output, but will wait to see if this trend continues before increasing POPs or coverage. Thunderstorms are unlikely based on forecast soundings, as even MUCAPE values are near zero. With increased cloud cover and questionable rain chances, the warming trend started on Saturday will take a brief pause on Sunday. Highs in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s inland, with morning lows in the low to mid 60s, except for upper 50s in rural portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.
After the shortwave on Sunday, clouds will stick around, with models, mainly the GFS, pushing another shortwave along the top of the ridge Tuesday into Wednesday. Currently, this shortwave looks to pass further north of the area, in southern Georgia. Thus, have not included mentionable POPs this forecast package. However, this bears watching for any deviations in forecast track. Temperatures will continue to warm to well above normal through midweek. Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday afternoon, as the western Atlantic high pressure moves further offshore and flow veers southwesterly. Morning lows will also be on the rise, only falling to the mid to upper 60s Wednesday morning.
Rest of Today - Tonight
Hazardous boating conditions expected to develop this afternoon into early Friday for areas beyond 20 nm where seas build up to 7 feet. Closer to shore small craft should exercise caution due to seas 4 to 6 feet. Northeast winds remain light around 10 knots, decreasing overnight.
Friday...Model guidance continues to show 7 foot swell lingering into late Friday morning. However, given high uncertainty did not extend the Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters beyond 8 AM Friday, though a few extra hours may need to be tacked on depending on how conditions evolve. Light offshore winds overnight become east by the afternoon around 10 knots with high pressure north of the area. While seas drop below 7 feet, small craft likely will need to exercise caution for lingering swell.
Saturday...A weak pressure gradient off the east coast will keep light and variable winds on Sat morning, with a sea breeze/onshore wind flow Sat afternoon that will increase winds across the nearshore waters to around 10 kt. Then on Sat night, a northeast swell will begin to reach the offshore waters, increasing seas to 6-8 ft by late night.
Sun-Tuesday (previous modified)...Guidance continues to indicate a large swell building into the Atlantic late this weekend, but swell heigheights have been on a downward trend. Nonetheless, boating conditions still look to be hazardous through at least Tue. Seas on Sunday will build to 6-8 ft offshore and 5-7 ft nearshore. Easterly winds will veer southerly through the forecast period to around 10-15 kts each afternoon and near 10 kts overnight.
Continued dryness will lead to another fire sensitive day on Friday, especially west of I-95 where minimum RH values in the 30-35 percent range are expected.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.