Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20nm Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast This Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms This Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely. Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And East 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Mostly Smooth On The Intracoastal Waters. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 644am EDT Sunday July 13 2025 .PREVIOUS Issued at 310am EDT Sunday July 13 2025 Today... A moisture boundary slides southeastward into central Florida along a broad surface trough. Building moisture should allow for another day of diurnally driven showers and storms with coverage peaking around 70-80 percent in the afternoon and evening. Shear profiles remain weak with light steering flow out of the north- northwest. This should favor a southward propagation of showers and storms along a developing sea breeze, but increasing outflow boundaries could still allow for slow and erratic storm motions. A localized flooding rainfall threat exists today with storm total accumulations of 2-4" possible. Heavy rainfall over short periods of time could cause ponding of water on area roadways and minor flooding of urban or low lying areas. While mid level storm parameters remain modest, steep low level lapse rates, and boundary collisions could allow for frequent lightning strikes and localized wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Brief funnel clouds cannot be ruled out as storms develop along the sea breeze. High temperatures climb in to the low to mid 90s ahead of shower and storm development. Combined with increasing humidity, peak heat index values are forecast to range 102-107 degrees, and a Minor to Moderate HeatRisk will exist. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Monday-Tuesday... A weak 500mb trough moves across the southwest Atlantic Monday, passing over the Florida peninsula on Tuesday. A broad surface trough offshore the southeast U.S. coast attempts to become more organized with passing mid level support, developing a weak low in vicinity of Florida. Waves of anomalously high moisture move through the region each day with modeled PWATs (Precipitable Waters) as high as 2.1-2.2", and values range above the 90th climatological percentile. High moisture in vicinity of weak mid level support will continue to fuel high rain chances each day (~80%), and a heavy rainfall threat will remain present. While global ensemble guidance suggests daily areawide totals of 0.5-1.5", localized totals of 2-4" remain in play both days. Areas that receive these localized higher totals over multiple days will become vulnerable to ponding of water and minor flooding. Although increased cloud cover may limit surface instability, tall skinny CAPE profiles around 2,000 J/kg and vorticity aloft suggest at least an isolated strong storm threat. Stronger storms will be capable of occasional to frequent lightning strikes and water loaded downdrafts which can produce localized gusty winds. Temperatures trend a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday, corresponding to higher rain chances. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Monday range the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. Morning low temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Saturday... The weak area of low pressure is nudged into the Gulf on Wednesday as the Atlantic high builds back toward Florida. As the low pressure departs westward, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a 20% chance of tropical development into the middle to late part of the week. Regardless of development deep moisture remains in place on the east side of the feature, keeping high rain chances through mid week (70-80%). By late week and into the weekend, the Atlantic ridge axis takes control, favoring a more typical summertime pattern with rain chances trending closer to normal. Marine Issued at 310am EDT Sunday July 13 2025 A broad trough of low pressure moves across the local Atlantic waters early this week. Increased moisture in vicinity of this feature will keep high daily rain chances (~60-80%) into midweek. Light offshore flow backs south to southeast today and Monday as the east coast sea breeze develops. Southerly flow then develops from Tuesday onwards as the Atlantic ridge axis begins to gradually rebuild over the local waters. Seas around 2 ft. Locally higher winds and seas in vicinity of thunderstorms. NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. AM...None. |
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