Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet out 20nm Marine Forecast
|Tonight...North To Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday...East Winds 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With A Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Moderate Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Becoming West In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Light Chop On The Intracoastal Waters. Chance Of Showers.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Atlantic coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet out 60 nm - AMZ500|
335 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020
High pressure over the southeast U.S. will move eastward over the western Atlantic through Friday. The next cold front will reach central Florida on Saturday. Wind flow will veer out of the east on Thursday, southeast to south Friday, then increase out of the southwest Friday night ahead of the front. Wind will then shift to northwest this weekend behind the front.
Gulf Stream Hazards: North to Northeast winds 15 knots and gusty. Seas up to 6 feet.
The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream based on the Real Time Ocean Forecast System as of Tuesday, December 1st.
38 nautical miles east of Ponce Inlet.
26 nautical miles east of Port Canaveral. 19 nautical miles east of Sebastian Inlet.
16 nautical miles east of Fort Pierce Inlet.
10 nautical miles east of Saint Lucie Inlet.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401pm EST Wednesday Dec 2 2020
Tonight...Surface winds expected to remain northerly the first part of tonight which should allow temps to fall quickly with sunset. However, flow just above the surface will veer NE and allow some modification of the airmass to begin along with some marine stratocu. So min temps will not be as cold as last night. Coolest temps in the lower 40s will occur over the rural north interior and south interior (Okeechobee). Milder temps closer to the coast, mid to upper 40s over mainland coastal counties but holding in the low to mid 50s immediate coast.
Thu...Noticeably milder as wind flow becomes Easterly. Marine stratocumulus will push onshore and well inland but no rain expected as moisture layer will be very thin, pancaking at the base of the subsidence inversion around 4k ft. There will also be some cirrus streaming from the west. Max temps in the mid 70s which is close to spot-on normal for early December.
Fri-Sun...Ridge axis of high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually shift south of the area through late week, as a mid level low or trough moving through the southeast U.S. sends another front through Florida into the weekend. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) remains slightly faster with this front and the arrival of rain ahead of this system than the GFS. However, the GFS has sped up slightly with these features with overall lower rainfall amounts compared to its 00Z run. Therefore, while rain chances remain more of a blend between the two, the forecast leans more toward the ECMWF/NBM guidance, with PoPs increasing up to 30-40 percent into Friday night and 20-30 percent into Saturday. While the GFS then trends drier into late weekend, the 12Z ECMWF is much wetter as it transports a low across the Gulf and through south Florida along this boundary. However, as this is a new development with this model, will continue to favor a drier forecast for Sunday-Sunday night.
Highs will rise into the mid to upper 70s on Friday, and then max temps will fall through the weekend to the low-mid 70s on Saturday to mid-upper 60s across much of the region into Sunday. While not as cold as the last front, overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to 50s on Saturday night and Sunday night.
Monday - Wednesday
Models in somewhat better agreement into next week showing a longer wave eastern CONUS trough shifting offshore into Tuesday, followed by a passing S/W that digs S/SE through the southeast U.S. and Florida into mid-week. This more dominant troughing across the area, will lead to a drier and cooler than normal pattern continuing through this time frame. Highs are currently forecast in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and low 50s through Mon-Wed.
Tonight/Thu...High pressure over the southeast U.S. this evening will push off the Carolina coast on Thu. Pressure gradient supporting north winds 15 knots and gusty this evening will veer northeast to east overnight then East on Thursday, 10-15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet tonight with up to 6 feet in the Gulf Stream, subsiding 3 to 4 feet Thursday aftn.
Fri-Sun...SE winds up to 10-15 knots Thu night will gradually veer S/SW through Fri night-Saturday ahead of the approaching front. Cold front will then push through the waters into Sat afternoon, with NW winds behind this boundary continuing up to 10-15 knots into Sun. Seas mainly 3-4ft near shore and 4-5ft offshore (potentially up to 6 feet well offshore into Saturday behind the front.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories