Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northwest 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Tonight...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: Northwest 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 6 Seconds, Becoming Northeast 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Northwest 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Protected Waters A Light Chop. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Thursday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And South 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. Protected Waters Choppy. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Protected Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 114pm EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Near Term (Today and tonight) Issued at 418am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Large-scale satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper trough dipping from the Northern Plains into the Mid-Atlantic states with a large ridge dominating the Western US. Nighttime microphysics and local webcams also show isolated fog (locally dense at times) focused mainly over parts of the FL Panhandle. This activity will be closely monitored through the morning hrs for any potential advisory decisions. Conditions should improve mid to late morning. The aforementioned trough's axis and its attendant dry front are positioned just to our north, resulting in zonal flow aloft. However, surface high pressure analyzed over the NE Gulf has us in NW flow from 700 mb down to ground level. Northerly breezes develop as the High tracks eastward today following frontal passage, thus reinforcing the dry airmass while keeping the afternoon seabreeze pinned to the coast. Gradual 500-mb height rises to 578-579 dm support temperatures peaking in the 80s under a mix of sun with upper cirrus clouds. Such conditions introduce elevated fire concerns. For tonight, NE flow sets the stage for a cold-air-damming-like scenario where relatively cooler temperatures (mid/upper 40s) filter southwestward into the northern one-third of the Tri-State area while locations elsewhere get down to the low/mid 50s. .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday morning) Issued at 418am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft will continue Thursday. Surface high pressure will move east from the Carolinas into the Atlantic. In response, our surface flow will clock around northeasterly on Thursday, easterly on Thursday night, then southeasterly Friday into Friday night. By Friday night, enough low-level moisture increase will have occurred to bring a return of favorable conditions for early morning fog on Saturday. Long Term (Saturday afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 418am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 This weekend will feature our next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery currently shows a southern stream trough over the northern Baja Peninsula of northwest Mexico. This will move east over the next few days and slowly move east along the northern Gulf coast this weekend. It will encounter an air mass that will have undergone a good bit of moistening, thanks to a long fetch of wind flowing from the Greater Antilles into our region on the periphery of a sprawling surface high near Bermuda. Precipitable Water (PW) values will moisten into the 1.3-1.6 inch range, with 1.5 inches being a crude threshold for deep, moist convection. Weak surface- based instability will develop on Saturday, possibly becoming moderate instability on Sunday. This will bring a smattering of isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times this weekend, especially if we can get enough focus from either the seabreeze or confluent bands in the broad low-level southerly flow. Also in favor on Saturday/Saturday night will be upper level diffluence in advance of that loose southern stream wave. There is no cold front in this setup, and this does not look like much of a a severe weather setup for us. There will be deep- layer shear of 20-30 knots this weekend, which could conceivably push a few loosely organized and gusty multi-cell clusters across the landscape. A more potent southern stream trough will eject across the middle of the country on Monday and Tuesday. A parent low will move east-northeast up the Ohio Valley. A trailing cold front will enter the Southeast States on Monday, and then cross our forecast area on Monday night or Tuesday. This front will move into an air mass that will still be marginally moist and moderately unstable. The highest rain chances in the 20-50 percent range will come on Monday afternoon. This is the period that will need to be watched from some severe potential, but there is not yet a clear consensus on how convective parameters will overlap. Some drying will occur on Tuesday, in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Marine Issued at 418am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 A weak dry cold front will pass the waters today, bringing a turn to northerly breezes this evening where it is not disrupted by the nearshore afternoon seabreeze. High pressure will move from the Carolinas into the Atlantic on Thursday, bringing a turn to an easterly flow regime through Saturday morning. The easterly flow will come with nocturnal surge of fresh easterlies on Thursday and Friday nights. Low pressure will develop over the Great Plains this weekend, clocking the flow over the eastern Gulf around more southerly. Fire Weather Issued at 418am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Surface high pressure fosters a dry airmass through mid-week. After some isolated fog this morning, elevated fire danger arrives during the afternoon thank to critically low RH down to mid 20s and high dispersions (via 5-6kft+ mixing heights) areawide under prevailing north winds. The latter should keep any seabreeze pinned to the coast. A shift to more easterly flow kick starts a moistening trend on Thursday, which should be more apparent west of the Flint River Valley as the afternoon seabreeze pushes from SE to NW. Expect critically low min RH to linger for points eastward. By Friday, an increase in southeasterlies provides more effective moisture return ahead of a weekend storm system. Expect high afternoon dispersions along the I-75 corridor as a result. Rain chances hold off until Saturday-Sunday. Hydrology Issued at 418am EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Rainfall this weekend is forecast to remain below 1 inch, which will be well shy of causing any hydrology issues. NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. |
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