Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...North To Northeast Winds Near 25 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots This Afternoon. Seas 4 To 7 Feet, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Feet This Afternoon. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tonight...North To Northeast Winds Near 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Feet, Decreasing To 2 Feet In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 3 Seconds.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 3 Seconds.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 3 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 3 Seconds.|
|Monday...East Winds 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot. Dominant Period 3 Seconds.|
| Synopsis for the Suwannee River to Okaloosa-Walton County Line out to 60 nm - GMZ700|
433 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021
Strong northerly breezes are ongoing early this morning, following the cold frontal passage across the northeast Gulf on Wednesday evening. Winds will ease today and tonight, as a sprawling high pressure center moves from the Southern Plains into the Southeast States. Winds will clock around and become easterly this weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
658am EDT Thu September 23 2021
25am EDT]... Near Term - Through Tonight
A refreshingly cooler and drier air mass is strengthening its hold on the service area early this morning, following a cold frontal passage on Wednesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures today will run about 5-10 degrees below normal for late September. Tonight will be the second night behind the cold front, placing it in line to be the coolest night of this stretch. Low temperatures will mostly in the 50s. The main inhibiting factor to even cooler temperatures will be the continuation of some wind, so any place that decouples and goes calm could drop into the upper 40s given supportive dewpoints.
A look at the last 30 years shows that the average climatological first date of the fall season for a low off 56F or less at Tallahassee is October 2. So the low temperature forecast of 56 would come earlier than usual. In fact, only five of the last 30 years have observed 56 degrees earlier in the season. A nod to this first-date climatology would a reason not to go cooler.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]... Little change is expected on Friday. By Friday night, a turn to northeast and east winds will start to moderate the air mass. Some fair weather cumulus will return on Saturday, but dry weather will continue.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
Dry west-northwest flow aloft will continue through the middle of next week. By then, the pattern will undergo amplification, with ensemble means showing an upper trough carving out just off the U.S. East Coast, and an upper ridge sharpening as it moves from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
All the while, surface high pressure will anchor itself in the vicinity of the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians and the Southeast States. This position will lead to easterly flow, though proximity of high pressure will limit the strength of the flow. Temperatures will climb a little each day, with a gradual transition to above normal temperatures next week. Surface dewpoints will spend most of next week in the 60s but will never achieve the yuck-factor 70s. Surface-based moisture may just be deep enough over the northeast Gulf and along the coastal Hwy 98 corridor for a few weak low- topped showers. However, the main story will be a dry forecast, especially from I-10 northward. The summer rainy season has ended.
Strong northerly breezes with near-gale gusts developed overnight over the northeast Gulf. C Tower has had a sustained wind as high as 28 knots, and Buoy 42039 (located 88 miles SW of Apalachicola) is observing 7-foot seas. Winds will ease and seas will subside during the day today.
From CWF synopsis...Strong northerly breezes are ongoing early this morning, following the cold frontal passage across the northeast Gulf on Wednesday evening. Winds will ease today and tonight, as a sprawling high pressure center moves from the Southern Plains into the Southeast States. Winds will clock around and become easterly this weekend.
A drier continental air mass will prevail today and Friday following the cold frontal passage on Wednesday. North winds will be gusty at times today but then ease on Friday. Otherwise, sunny skies will offer no cloud cover or shading of fuels.
Many rivers are running high, but none are forecast to flood in the next 7 days. There will be close calls with flood stage on the Ochlockonee near Concord, the Withlacoochee below Valdosta, the Fenholloway in Taylor County, and the Aucilla. About a week in the future, parts of the Suwanee will be near flood stage as upstream water gets routed downstream.
Little or no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT /10am CDT/ this morning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.