Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms With A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late.|
|Tonight...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Showers.|
|Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds. Showers.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds, Building To 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally To 10 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 5 Seconds After Midnight. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 8 Seconds.|
|Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Feet With A Dominant Period Of 6 Seconds. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
417am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM,
(Today and tonight) Issued at 338am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
A mature low pressure center is lifting northeast across Missouri, with a trailing cold front extending south through Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. An organized solid line of thunderstorms precedes the front and is currently crossing Mobile Bay.
The line of convection will generally weaken this morning as the trailing front becomes somewhat detached from the parent low, which will quickly move northeast across lower Michigan this afternoon. Areas north of the Florida border should see a band of rain with isolated embedded thunder.
However, a minor perturbation in the mid- level flow currently over the western Gulf will likely interact with a weakly or perhaps moderate unstable air mass south of Emerald Coast this afternoon to bring a renewed blossoming of showers and thunderstorms. The renewed convection will be mostly likely to affect the coast and Panhandle counties late this afternoon, spreading east across the FL Big Bend and Apalachee Bay this evening. Given about 30-40 knots of bulk shear and a veered low-level wind profile, a couple thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the Panhandle coast. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a Marginal Risk of severe storms through tonight for most of the forecast area, though it appears the greater threat will be over our FL counties and especially near the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts, where instability will be least weak.
Otherwise, could be some sea fog around the shores of Apalachee Bay from late this afternoon through Friday morning, as dewpoints in the mid 60s spread across the cooler nearshore waters.
.SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 338am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
A very interesting forecast unfolds during the short term part of the forecast. An upper-level low will dive toward the central Gulf Coast by Saturday, then move over southern and central Georgia into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, the cold front will stall over the western parts of our area through much of the day on Friday until the upper-level low moves in. This will kick the front eastward but also spur cyclogenesis along the front in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will be on the order of 1.4 to 1.7 inches, which is at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. The stark contrast to this is that the 500 mb temperatures by late Saturday as the upper-level low moves overhead will be near the coldest temperatures for this time of year.
Let's start with Friday. With the cold front stalled over the western CWA, we will have rounds of rain, potentially heavy rain, throughout the day. Additionally, to the east of the front (mainly southern Georgia and the Florida counties), a warm, moist air mass will support a chance for thunderstorms. Instability is marginal, though present, and the environment is at least somewhat sheared. This will present the chance for isolated strong to perhaps severe storms on Friday over the Florida and Georgia counties. Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) over these areas for Friday for the potential a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Heavy rainfall will also be a possibility given the anomalously moist atmosphere. More details on the heavy rainfall potential can be found in the hydrology section. Most of the area will be behind the front Friday night, but we will continue to have overrunning showers across the area.
On Saturday, we will remain in generally southerly flow aloft with good isentropic ascent as the flow overruns the frontal boundary to our south. Meanwhile, the upper-level low will approach from the west, bringing additional lift and stronger flow aloft. Thus, the potential for heavy rainfall continues. However, with an upper-level low moving in with anomalously cold upper-level temperatures, we could see an interesting setup. Steepening low- level lapse rates, especially into the evening and nighttime hours, could result in some renewed convection. Given that freezing levels will drop quite substantially, convective showers that can develop and tap into this colder air could produce some small hail. This part of the forecast, however, is quite uncertain and is rather conditional based on the upper-level low track and if convective showers actually develop. The low pressure system developing over the northeast Gulf will move over the Big Bend and southeast Georgia into the Atlantic by Sunday morning. We will continue to have rain showers through the night as wrap-around moisture remains, as well as some overrunning component thanks to the upper-level low.
As far as the temperature forecast goes, Friday will be a non- diurnal day west of the Flint where temperatures will fall slightly or hold steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the day. Elsewhere though, temperatures will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s (warmer farther east). Lows Friday night will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with Saturday's highs only recovering to the mid 50s to low 60s. Saturday night's lows will be in the 40s.
(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 338am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
The deepening surface low and upper-level low will move well to the northeast of the area on Sunday. We could still have some isolated showers in the morning along and north of an Albany to Fitzgerald line. Otherwise, breezy and cool weather is expected on Sunday before a moderating trend takes place Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday, warming back to the 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s, warming to the 50s by Tuesday night. The next system will begin approaching our forecast area late Tuesday night, but there remains much uncertainty in timing and strength of this system.
Issued at 338am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
Patchy fog will be possible late this afternoon into Friday morning in Apalachee Bay. Southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots will clock around to the north on Friday as a cold front moves through the marine area. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet through Friday. An area of low pressure will then develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico Saturday and deepen as it moves over the Big Bend and into the western Atlantic on Sunday. This will result in strengthening northwesterly winds and building seas. Advisory- level winds appear likely, and occasional gusts to gale- force cannot be ruled out. Seas will build to 5 to 7 feet near shore and 7 to 10 feet offshore. Winds and seas will begin subsiding late Sunday into the first part of next week.
Issued at 338am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
An areas of showers with embedded thunderstorms will spread east today across Panhandle, Alabama Wiregrass, and Chattahoochee Valley districts, continuing eastward across the FL Big Bend and Georgia districts this evening. In advance of the rain, the air mass will be moistening today, and cloud cover will be thickening.
The front that is responsible for this first round of rain will stall out late today, then re-energize on Friday. This will lead to continued rounds of wetting rains on Friday. An uncommonly deep and compact upper low will cross the districts on Saturday, making for a cool and rainy day. Multiple days of heavy rain will raise an increasing concern for flooding over the course of Friday and Saturday.
Issued at 338am EST Thu Feb 9 2023
Forecast rainfall totals have increased a bit for the potential heavy rainfall threat over the next few days. Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, though higher amounts are possible in localized areas. This is particularly true in areas where storms train (move repeatedly over the same locations). This could result in some flash flood potential as well. 6-hour flash flood guidance is around 4 to 5 inches, which may be achievable in training heavy bands. WPC has outlined the forecast area in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for today, Friday, and Saturday.
In addition to the flash flood threat, there is also some riverine flood concern. Looking at the latest ensemble forecasts, several rivers have some possibility of reaching minor flood stage. This includes the Kinchafoonee, Apalachicola, and upper reaches of the Pea and Choctawhatchee. All of these rivers have about a 30 percent chance or greater of reaching minor flood during the next 7 days. However, which rivers do and don't flood will greatly depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for more updates on flood potential, both for flash flooding and for river flooding.
NOAA Tallahassee FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.
GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.