Hurricane Center - Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Friday August 12 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern Louisiana. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
For more information on the system, see products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Forecaster: Dave Roberts, National Hurricane Center
2021 Storm Names
• Anna (May 22 - 23, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Bill (June 14 - 16, 60 mph, 998mb)
• Claudette (June 19 - 22, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Danny (June 28 - 29, 45 mph, 1009mb)
• Elsa (July 1 - 9, 85 mph, 991mb)
• Fred (Aug 11 - 18, 65 mph, 993mb)
• Grace (Aug 13 - 21, 125 mph, 962mb)
• Henri (Aug 16 - 24, 75 mph, 986mb)
• Ida (Aug 26 - Sept 2, 150 mph, 933mb)
• Julian (Aug 29 - 30, 60 mph, 995mb)
• Kate (Aug 28 - Sept 1, 40 mph, 1004mb)
• Larry (Aug 31 - Sept 11, 125 mph, 955mb)
• Mindy (Sept 8 - 10, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Nicholas (Sept 12 - 17, 75 mph, 988mb)
• Odette (Sept 17 - 18, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Peter (Sept 19 - 22, 50 mph, 1007mb)
• Rose (Sept 19 - 23, 40 mph, 1007mb)
• Sam (Sept 22 - Oct 5, 145 mph, 943mb)
• Teresa (Sept 24 - 25, 45 mph, 1008mb)
• Victor (Sept 29 - Oct 4, 65 mph, 997mb)
• NEXT: Wanda
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:05AM EDT (1205 UTC) Friday August 12 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.
The axis of a tropical wave is across the central Atlantic along 46/47W from 03N-23N, moving westward at 20 kt. A large envelope of moist air is seen in Precipitable Water imagery between 39W and 47W, in association with the tropical wave. A large area of Saharan Air precedes the wave axis, between 48W and 57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm E of the wave axis from 09.5N to 15.5N, and from 09N to 12N between 46W and 50W.
The axis of a tropical wave is along 58W from 20N southward to the Guyana, moving westward at 15 kt. The portion of the wave north of 12N is currently enveloped in an area of westward moving Saharan dust. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10.5N to 12.5N between 53W and 58W.
The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from central Hispaniola southward to western Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15.5N to 18N between 67W and 72W.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14.5N17W to 12.5N23W to 13.5N37W to 10N57W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 18W and 23W, while scattered moderate is noted from 07.5N to 11N between 35W and 38W.
Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A recent low to middle level trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico has weakened overnight, but still supports a surface trough along the central Texas coast. Ample low level moisture is seen over the NW and N central Gulf in Precipitable Water imagery. A reinforcing middle to upper level trough is sinking southward across the Gulf Coast states and nearing the coasts, and is supporting persistent scattered moderate isolated strong convection across the N central and NE Gulf north of 27N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm of the Mexican coast across the SW Gulf. Although the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms in the N Gulf has diminished significantly overnight compared to during the daytime on Thursday, expect thunderstorms to return to the northwest Gulf during the daytime today as the trough and moisture sticks around.
Weak surface high pressure extends from the western Atlantic westward along 29N to SE Louisiana early this morning. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. Buoys are currently reporting 2 to 3 ft seas across most of the basin, with peak seas likely 4 ft in the Straits of Florida.
The weak high pressure along 29N to the N central Gulf will sink southeast late Friday through Tue. This will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the basin to weaken to light to gentle into next week. Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the northern Gulf waters through early Sat, then shift across the NW Gulf Saturday through Sunday as a frontal boundary stalls near the northern Gulf coast.
Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A broad middle to upper-level low is centered just east of the Bahamas near 26N74W and extends a trough axis extends southwestward from there to eastern Cuba and westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern Caribbean between 67W and 82W, and has diminished in coverage and intensity overnight. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring over the SW Caribbean in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough, and inside the Gulf of Honduras west of 87W. The remainder of the basin is not currently experiencing any significant precipitation.
A narrow Atlantic surface ridge extends W-SW along 30-32N and is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the basin E of 80W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data showed gentle E winds are occurring over the NW Caribbean. Seas across most of the basin are 4 to 6 ft except 3 to 4 ft across NW portions.
The Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic W-SW to northern Florida along 29N this morning, and will drift southward and weaken through early next week. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will weaken to moderate Saturday through Mon, then increase to fresh late Monday through Tuesday night. Active weather is possible in the N central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend as an upper-level trough remains stationary over the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad surface trough accompanies a tropical wave across the central Atlantic, and is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic Friday night through Saturday night, across the eastern Caribbean early Sunday through early Mon, and across the central Caribbean Monday through Tuesday night.
Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A middle to upper-level low is centered near 30N57W then extends a trough and connects to a broad middle to upper-level low just east of the Bahamas near 26N74W. Ridging in the low and mid levels to the north of 27N is allowing for only widely scattered moderate convection over the area from 28N-31N between 50W and 73W. A 1020 mb high is centered near 29.5N74W and extends a ridge axis from 32N60W to 30N76W to 29N83W. Earlier ASCAT data showed gentle or weaker winds from 24N-31N between 55W-82W. Seas are generally 3 to 4 ft across that entire area. Moderate trades prevail through the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles, except for fresh north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Seas are likely 4 to 5 ft in this area.
The upper-level low centered near 30N57W is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 28N-31N between 47W-61W. A surface trough extending from 31N59N to 29N61W is helping to converge low level moisture across that area. 1024 mb surface high pressure is centered near 30N36W. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas prevail from the monsoon trough to 27N between 30W-55W. Strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas are likely occurring from 17N-24N between the coasts of Mauritania/Western Sahara and 27W. Gentle winds prevail from 27N-31N between 25W-55W with 3-5 ft seas.
The narrow Atlantic ridge extending to northern Florida along 29N will weaken and sink southward through early next week as a frontal boundary moves off the eastern seaboard and stalls NE of Florida along about 31N. Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken to gentle early Saturday and change little into next week. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through the period. A tropical wave will reach the southeast forecast waters by early Sat, bringing a slight increase in winds and seas over those waters through early Mon.
Forecaster: Scott Stripling, National Hurricane Center