Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Wednesday Oct 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1754 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.1N 75.3W at 29/1800 UTC or 100 nm SSE of the Central Bahamas, moving NE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft just NE of the center. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas this afternoon and evening, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Some slight strengthening is possible today into tomorrow with little change in strength thereafter.

Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold over the northwestern Gulf will progress southeastward over the region through Thursday morning. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front through Thursday evening. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf through this morning. Gale force winds along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico will spread southward to Veracruz today. Conditions will improve early Thursday night.

Tropical Waves
A tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 04N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 08N to 16N between 40W and 53W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 13N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is found along the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and extends southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 07N41W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 10N between 17W and 40W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Please see the Active and Developing Storms section above for details about the Gale Warning in effect over the basin.

A strong cold front extends from Alabama to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the front, west of 92W. A tight pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure over NW United States supports near-gale to gale force winds north of the front according to the latest satellite derived winds. Moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas are ahead of the front elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress southeastward over the region through Thursday morning. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front through Thursday evening. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf through this morning. Gale force winds along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico will spread southward to Veracruz today. Conditions will improve early Thursday night. Another cold front may enter the NW Gulf Sun.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Attention remains focused on Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.1N 75.3W at 29/1800 UTC. Please read the Active & Developing Storms section for all the information related to this powerful hurricane.

Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate to fresh in speeds, except for gentle winds over the eastern and SW part of the basin. Seas with these winds are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, Melissa will move further N of the area today, with marine conditions in the north-central Caribbean improving through the day. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean early Thursday and extend from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Thursday evening before dissipating early Fri. Trade winds will freshen over the E Caribbean Saturday evening.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section for the details related to major Hurricane Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.1N 75.3W at 29/1800 UTC or 100 nm SSE of the Central Bahamas, moving NE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. To the north of Melissa, a stationary dissipating front extends from 31N71W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are depicted ahead of the front between 61W and 72W. A broad surface ridge covers the remainder subtropical waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 23.4N 74.3W this evening, 26.9N 71.9W Thursday morning, 31.6N 67.7W Thursday evening, 37.2N 61.8W Friday morning, become extratropical and move to 43.3N 55.2W Friday evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 49.0N 48.4W Saturday morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail over the waters N of 29N and W of 60W through tonight. A new cold front will move offshore of the southeastern U.S. early Thursday morning, leading to increasing winds and building seas over the western Atlantic ahead of Melissa through late Friday morning. Rough seas associated with the passage of Melissa gradually subside by the weekend.

Forecaster: Keren Rosado-Vazquez, National Hurricane Center