Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Monday August 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC.

Tropical Waves
A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 18N between 13W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 35W and 40W.

Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 56W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is within 240 nm west of the wave from 12N to 15N.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N20W and to 12N30W to 12N35W to 10N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 12N50W and to 13N57W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas north of 24N. Moderate northeast to east winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a westward moving trough that is now in the central Bay of Campeche. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters where these winds are present. Moderate northeast to east winds are over the lower Straits of Florida and the approaches to the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the western Caribbean Sea from 15N to 18N west of 82W to just inland Honduras and Nicaragua Similar convection is confined to the southwestern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W and 81W, including most of Panama and just inland northwest Colombia. Fresh to strong trades cover most of the central portion of the basin and the eastern portion of the western portion. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these trades. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are exist elsewhere along with moderate seas. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the western portion of the sea, except for fresh east winds in the lee side of Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though late today. The area of high pressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure gradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure will build north of the area once again the second half of the week, tightening the pressure gradient, and strengthening winds over the central Caribbean.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from a 1010 mb gale center north of the area near 34N52W southwestward to 31N54W to 29N57W and to 28N64W to 28N68W and northwestward to 31N74W, transitioning to stationary front north of there. Latest satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong southwest winds north of 28N east of front to near 49W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present within 180 nm east-southeast of the front north of 25N, and within 120 nm south of the front between 62W and 66W and also between 70W and 73W.

The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the Azores. Its related gradient is s supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh northeast winds east of 20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Moderate winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected south of about 22N.

Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center