Hurricane Center - Atlantic

Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Friday November 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster: Jack Beven, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
454 AM EST Wednesday Jan 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 00N-04N between 14W-40W and near the coast of Brazil.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A 1027 mb high pressure is centered over northern Gulf of Mexico near 29N89W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak low pressure is centered near 27N97W with a surface trough analyzed to the south over the west Gulf coast from 27N97W to 21N96W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW Gulf N of 25N and W of 90W. The remainder of the Gulf has broken low clouds with light shower activity mainly near the western and northern Gulf coast.

High pressure will dominate the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf Fri night and Sat ahead of a strong cold front expected to reach the NW Gulf on Sat evening. A large area of gales is possible behind the front Sat night through Sunday night. Strongest winds will be near the Veracruz coast Sunday on morning.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
An upper level ridge builds across the western Caribbean while zonal flow prevails across cetral-eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient remains relax with moderate easterly trades in place across much of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and west of 86W. Overcast low clouds with isolated embedded showers are over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Subsidence is keeping fair weather across the entire central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Sat night. Highest winds will reach near-gale force along the coast of Colombia each night through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sunday through Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sunday morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sunday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N54W to 27N59W to 26N762. The front transitions to a stationary front from that point to 24N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend 100 nm on either side of the front mainly 24N.

A stationary front from 27N65W to 24N70W will weaken today. A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas tonight and Thu. Southerly winds will strengthen Sat through Sunday morning E of Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to push off the Florida peninsula Sunday afternoon. The front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sunday night and from 31N66W to 22N78W on Mon. Minimal gale force winds are possible north of 29N on either side of the front Sunday and Mon.

Forecaster: Mike Tichacek, National Hurricane Centerorres