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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tuesday May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019.  During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster: Stacy R. Stewart, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 01N to 06N between 30W and 40w. Other nearby precipitation is more related to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 07N15W, 05N18W, and 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to 04N29W, 03N36W, to 03N45W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are from 02N to 06N between 06W and 13W, including in southern sections of Liberia. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere 07N southward from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 09N southward between 50W and 57W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, that extends from the W Atlantic Ocean into the NE Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh to strong SE winds across the western Gulf of Mexico through Friday. The wind speeds will diminish and become more easterly across most of the basin during this weekend. High pressure will reorganize itself across the W Atlantic Ocean, and it will build W along 32N into SE Louisiana. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies in the western and SW sections of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The monsoon trough passes through western Nicaragua, to the coast of Panama that is near 09N79W, into northern Colombia along 10N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward, and inland in parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from NW Nicaragua into the west central sections of the Caribbean Sea. A separate upper level trough extends from the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico, just to the north of NW Cuba, toward Honduras. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 70W westward.

The current rainshowers, that are covering Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica and in the far eastern North Pacific Ocean, have been heavy at times during the last few days. The precipitation is associated with a broad area of low pressure that has moved inland in Central America. It is likely that locally heavy rains may continue in parts of Central America during the next few days. It is possible that the rain may cause flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the eastern North Pacific Ocean, MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC, for more details.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 23/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPForecaster: Evelyn Rivera-Acevedo, National Hurricane CenterTURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in Guadeloupe, 0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

High pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds across most of the south central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday. Broad low pressure in Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean will persist through this weekend, in order to produce active weather across the SW Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave will move into the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters late on Sunday.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that extends from 20N to 30N between 60W and 80W. A cold front is passing through 32N51W 27N67W 26N73W 27N78W. The cold front is dissipating from 27N78W to 30N81W. A surface trough is along 29N56W 24N65W and into central Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N48W to 28N54W to 25N61W, and from 20N to 26N between 63W and 70W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 60W westward from 20N northward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 32N25W, through 28N35W, to 21N58W.

An upper level trough extends from a southern Morocco cyclonic circulation center, to 24N24W, to a 24N49W cyclonic circulation center. Rainshowers are possible within 480 nm on either side of the trough.

The current cold front that is to the west of 50W will continue to move southward through Friday. It will stall, and dissipate slowly along 25N from Friday night through Sunday. A broad inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Friday. A second cold front will move southward, into the northern waters on Saturday morning, and gradually merge with remnants of the current cold front along 24N/25N from Sunday night through Monday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

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