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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wednesday October 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wednesday Oct 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Active Storms
The center of Hurricane Epsilon is near 28.9N 58.3W 976 mb at 0900 UTC, moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 380 nm north of the center. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are up to 750 nm northeast of the center. The maximum sea heights are 30 feet. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in bands up to 250 nm from the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong elsewhere from 20N to 32N between 48W and 62W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 17N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 28W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate showers are within 200 nm on either side of the wave axis from 14N to 20N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate convection evident from 12N to 19N between 74W and 80W.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N16W to 11N19W. The ITCZ is along 05N/07N between 17W and 30W, from 03N to 05N between 32W and 45W, and 06N between 47W and 54W. In addition to convection noted from the tropical wave along 31W, scattered moderate isolated strong is from 03N to 10N between 20W and 43W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
An upper level trough is in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, along 87W. Abundant moisture in the eastern the Gulf of Mexico, and convergent surface winds in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida, are helping to enhance clouds and showers in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

High pressure over the eastern United States and broad low pressure over western Caribbean will support fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern Gulf today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Sunday.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A surface trough extends from 22N88W in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, to a NW Caribbean Sea 10068 mb low pressure center near 19N86W, to 11N79W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted east of the trough, from 14N to 22N between 77W and 80W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean Sea across Panama near 09N84W to the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Isolated showers are along the trough axis.

A broad surface trough, in the western Caribbean Sea, from the Yucatan Channel to 12N80W, is producing scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms east of the trough. The trough will drift westward during the next couple of days. Winds and sea heights are expected to increase south of the Windward Islands on Saturday.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong E to NE winds north of Cuba from 72W westward. Abundant moisture is in the same region also. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N to 30N west of 75W, and extends across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

A dissipating cold front extends from the coast of Morocco to the Canary Islands. Broad surface low pressure covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward and 27W eastward. Scattered moderate convection in broken to overcast multi-layered clouds is from 24N to 30N between 17W and 32W.

Hurricane Epsilon near 28.9N 58.3W will move to 29.5N 59.6W this afternoon, 30.4N 60.5W Thu morning, then north of the area on Thu. The gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas over the western waters through Friday. Long-period northeast to east swell will impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through Friday night.

Forecaster: Dan Mundell, National Hurricane Center

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