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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Saturday November 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020.  During the
off-season, Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster: Jack Beven, National Hurricane Center


For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 PM EST Monday Jan 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.

Active Storms
...GULF OF MEXICO GForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane CenterE WARNING...

A cold front extending across the Florida Straits into the Yucatan Peninsula will continue moving southeast through tonight. As the front moves away from the area, the gale-force northerly winds near Veracruz, Mexico will diminish to strong category by late tonight. Seas will range between 8-10 ft in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...WEST ATLANTIC GForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane CenterE WARNING...

On Tuesday evening, a surface low is forecast to develop along a cold front to the east of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure building into the SE U.S. will develop gale force northerly winds north of the Bahamas by Tuesday night. These winds will shift eastward through Thu and to northeast of the forecast waters Thu night. Seas will range between 10-17 ft in the this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...CENTRForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of these islands through tonight. See information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on beach hazards in your area.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the boundaries at this time.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Veracruz Mexico. See the section above for details.

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N88W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Outside of gale area, fresh to strong northerly winds prevail across the basin. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche, north of the front.

Gale conditions will prevail offshore of Veracruz Mexico into tonight. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward by the middle of the week allowing for the next cold front to move across the northwest Gulf by Thu. As the front moves across the basin through the weekend, moderate to fresh winds will dominate the area.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A cold front is entering the far west Caribbean, currently extending across the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. To the southwest, scattered moderate convection prevails across portions of Central America, reaching the southern Caribbean waters mainly south of 10N between 77W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin.

Long-period north swell will result in very large seas and hazardous marine conditions across the Atlantic facing parts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico through Tuesday night, before gradually diminishing by mid-week. The cold front described above will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and reach from eastern Cuba to the northern coast of Honduras by Tuesday evening, bringing strong north winds and higher seas.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over the west Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted behind the front, while moderate southwesterly winds prevail south of the front. Scattered showers prevail along the front, mainly north of 28N. To the east, a 1024 mb surface high is over the central Atlantic near 31N50W. A cold front enters the east Atlantic near 31N32W and extends to 19N36W to 15N50W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N68W. Scattered showers within 60 nm of the fronts. Another cold front is analyzed over the far east Atlantic from the Canary Islands near 26N14W and to 31N24W. No significant convection is noted with this last front.

Large seas east of the southeastern Bahamas will gradually subside through early Tue. The cold front extending over the west Atlantic will move across the rest of the Bahamas and into eastern Cuba by Tuesday evening. A complex low pressure system is forecast to develop along this front to the east of the Bahamas Tuesday into Wed. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure building into the SE U.S. bring gale-force northerly winds north of the Bahamas by Tuesday night. The gale-force winds will shift eastward through Thu and to northeast of the forecast waters by Thu night. A new cold front will move across the far northwest waters by Sat.



Forecaster: Evelyn Rivera-Acevedo, National Hurricane Center

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