Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Wednesday Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0000 UTC at least. Very rough seas to around 13 ft (4 m) are likely with these winds. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N20W, where latest scatterometer satellite data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator at 26W and to just inland the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 27W-31W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-38W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-32W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A ridge extends from a central Atlantic high pressure system west-southwestward to NE Texas while low pressure is over eastern Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low pressure is allowing for mainly moderate to fresh southeast to south winds across the basin, with the exception of light winds in the far NE Gulf and light to gentle south winds over the far west-central portion. Latest altimeter satellite data along with the most current buoy observations reveal seas of 4 to 6 ft north 26N and seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 26N, including the Bay of Campeche.

Patchy fog is noted over some sections of the central and western Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will persist today before shifting eastward through the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh southeast to south winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf from the evenings and into early morning hours. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and move southeastward before stalling across the southeastern part of the Thursday night, then dissipate Friday through Friday night. In the wake of the front, north winds will increase to fresh to near gale- force speeds, with seas building to 10 ft through Thursday night, before conditions improve early Friday as high pressure gradually rebuilds across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms precede the front tonight into early Thu. A stronger cold front may approach early next week.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure found in northern South America is maintaining fresh to strong trades over the central basin. Mostly fresh trades are elsewhere across the sea. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft in the south-central part of the sea, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere south of 18N east of about 82W, except locally higher near Atlantic Passages, and 3 to 5 ft across the remainder of the basin including the NW Caribbean.

Isolated showers are south of 14N and east of 69W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades over the central part of the sea are expected to continue until early Thu, then become confined to the south-central Caribbean afterward through Sat. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse near the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wednesday night. Large easterly trade wind swell from the Tropical North Atlantic will maintain rough seas across the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve briefly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front that approaches the northwestern Caribbean. High pressure will build across the Atlantic by the end of the weekend, with fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please see Active and Developing Storms section above regarding a Gale Warning in effect for the Meteo-France forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya.

A 1028 mb high pressure system is north of the area centered east-northeast of Bermuda near 34N56W. A ridge extends from the high west-southwestward to central Florida and west-northwestward from there to roughly along 31N. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveals light to gentle to moderate southeast to south winds from 27N to 29N west of 60W, gentle to moderate east winds south of 27N west of 60W and mostly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere, including the entrance to the Windward Passage. An area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds is present from 25N to 29N east of 34W. Another exception is northeast winds of strong to near gale-force confined to north of 26N and east of 20W, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands due to a strong pressure gradient resulting from the difference in pressure between a 1034 mb high pressure system north of the area and relatively lower pressure in NW Africa. Latest altimeter satellite data indicate seas of 8 to 11 ft north 20N east of 42W, and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and E of 40W and from 09N to 17N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere southeast of a line from 31N50W to 24N63W and to the southeastern Bahamas. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are west of the same line, except for seas of 2 to 4 ft east of northern and central Florida to near 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trades will continue south of 25N through this evening as a ridge continues near 32N. Southerly fresh to strong winds will develop off northern Florida tonight ahead of an approaching cold front that is expected to move offshore of northeast Florida by Thursday evening, with fresh to near gale- force winds and building seas behind it. The front is then forecast to weaken and slow down from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will prevail across the basin behind the front for the end of the week and into the weekend, producing moderate to fresh trades, then trades will strengthen by the end of the weekend, leading to fresh to locally strong winds basin-wide, and rough seas over the southeastern waters.

Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center