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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
955 AM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between 
the Madeira Islands and the Azores.  This system has become less 
organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are 
expected to become less conducive for development as the system 
moves southwestward during the next day or two.  Although 
subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue 
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira 
Islands and the Azores through Wednesday.  Additional information on 
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo 
France. 

This will be the last Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster: Jack Beven, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.

Active Storms
Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: La Soufriere volcano on the island of Saint Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W is active, and continues to erupt. Satellite imagery shows the volcanic ash plume spreading east and northeast of St. Vincent, roughly in an area from 12N to 14N between 57W to 61W which includes Barbados. Violent volcanic eruptions may occur suddenly without any warning. Volcanic ash may be reaching the ocean surface east-northeast of St. Vincent. Mariners should exercise caution, and report volcanic ash or floating debris to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends southward from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 064N23W to 03N35W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N-09N between 010W-22W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A squall line entered the northeast Gulf this morning and is moving southeast. GOES-16 lightning mapper shows frequent lightning within the line of thunderstorms stretching from Panama City, FL to 28N88W back to the western Louisiana coastline. The line of storms is associated with a cold front sweeping across the central U.S. entering the Gulf near the LA/TX border to deep southern Texas. Fresh southerly winds prevail ahead of the front, with gentle to moderate NW winds following the front. Seas north of 25N and east of 90W are 5-10 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3-5 ft.

The cold front will move into the NW Gulf later today, then stall and weaken from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico by Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are expected in the NE Gulf this weekend.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

Recent scatterometer data shows fresh trade winds in the east-central part of the Caribbean, and mostly gentle winds in the western Caribbean besides the Gulf of Honduras where SE winds are fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft over most of the basin except for the Gulf of Honduras where seas are reaching 6 ft and the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia where seas are up to 7 ft. Showers and thunderstorms continue off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Showers are also noted just south of Jamaica.

Fresh SE winds are expected across the NW Caribbean this weekend, including the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across the central Caribbean through Sun.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
See the Special Features section above for details on an ashfall advisory issued for ongoing volcanic eruptions on St. Vincent.

High-pressure ridging continues over most of the western and far eastern Atlantic. West of 60W, scatterometer data reveals gentle anticyclonic flow. Higher pressure is supporting mostly tranquil marine conditions and seas of 3-5 ft. A large occluded gale-force low pressure system north of the area centered near 37N50W is producing a large area of strong westerly winds north of 25N between 37W-60W. Seas are 11-16ft in this area. Northerly swell from this system is affecting most of the central Atlantic. A weak surface trough is analyzed south of this low pressure system, from 26N39W to 17N51W. Isolated showers embedded in multi- layer broken to overcast clouds are noted from 22N to 32N between 26W and 44W.

Fresh southerly winds are expected in the Bahamas and east of Florida this weekend as a cold front approaches the western Atlantic. The front will move E of northern Florida on Mon, extend from 30N65W to 23N78W on Tue, and move east of the forecast area on Wed.

Mora

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