Hurricane Center - Atlantic

Tropical Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wednesday May 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster: John Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center

2021 Storm Names

• Anna (May 22 - 23, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Bill (June 14 - 16, 60 mph, 998mb)
• Claudette (June 19 - 22, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Danny (June 28 - 29, 45 mph, 1009mb)
• Elsa (July 1 - 9, 85 mph, 991mb)
• Fred (Aug 11 - 18, 65 mph, 993mb)
• Grace (Aug 13 - 21, 125 mph, 962mb)
• Henri (Aug 16 - 24, 75 mph, 986mb)
• Ida (Aug 26 - Sept 2, 150 mph, 933mb)
• Julian (Aug 29 - 30, 60 mph, 995mb)
• Kate (Aug 28 - Sept 1, 40 mph, 1004mb)
• Larry (Aug 31 - Sept 11, 125 mph, 955mb)
• Mindy (Sept 8 - 10, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Nicholas (Sept 12 - 17, 75 mph, 988mb)
• Odette (Sept 17 - 18, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Peter (Sept 19 - 22, 50 mph, 1007mb)
• Rose (Sept 19 - 23, 40 mph, 1007mb)
• Sam (Sept 22 - Oct 5, 145 mph, 943mb)
• Teresa (Sept 24 - 25, 45 mph, 1008mb)
• Victor (Sept 29 - Oct 4, 65 mph, 997mb)

NEXT: Wanda

• Adria
• Braylen
• Caridad

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wednesday May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.

Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 25W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N and between 23W and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 52W, south of 12N, moving westward at 20 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea, along 77W, south of 21N, extending from eastern Cuba to off NW Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This system continues to enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of Hispaniola and regional waters. Moisture associated with this wave will spread into Jamaica and eastern Cuba through at least Wed. The storm activity may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N50W. No deep convection is noted outside of the activity discussed in the Tropical Waves section.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A cold front stretches across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Divergence aloft sustains a line of showers and thunderstorms affecting the offshore waters of SE Texas and SW Louisiana. These storms are producing heavy downpours, gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to use caution.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the NW Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present off Yucatan, especially south of 24N and between 86W and 92W. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America persist across most of the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche as seen on recent satellite imagery. Visibilities are 3 nm or less across many observing sites along the SW and western Gulf coast.

For the forecast, strong thunderstorms are moving off the Texas and Louisiana coast. These storms are producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally rough seas. Outside of those storms, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sat. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh this evening through the weekend. A weak cold front will move across the far NE Gulf tonight, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night for the next several days. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, impacting visibility at times.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea.

A persistent upper-level trough is found stretching into the western Caribbean and Central America. This feature continues to transport abundant tropical moisture northward from the SW Caribbean across Hispaniola and into the Atlantic, enhancing convection across the area. An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms continues to affect the SW Caribbean. This convective activity is reaching the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama and also impacting San Andres and Providencia Islands. Strong winds with gusts to gale-force are likely in association with the strongest convection. Hazy conditions persist over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over northern Central America. Visibilities may decrease below 3 nm at times in the Gulf of Honduras, especially close to the coast.

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest winds occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and low pressure along near Colombia will force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Winds will become moderate to fresh from Thursday through the weekend. A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the western basin as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Two tropical waves are noted between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, read the Tropical Waves section for more details.

A weak surface trough is noted near eastern Florida, producing a few showers and thunderstorms. Farther east, another surface trough is analyzed from 31N48W to 21N59W, generating a few showers near and to the east of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted west of the surface trough to 57W and north of 29N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Mainly moderate easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present south of 24N and west of 60W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W.

A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic forecast waters, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure system located SE of Nova Scotia near 44N52W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in the area described are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident south of 24N and east of 35W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The strongest winds are found between the Cabo Verde Islands and Mauritania. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1029 mb Bermuda High is contributing toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin. The moderate winds are due to a weak cold front forecast to emerge from the SE United States coast tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will move eastward toward the Greater Antilles later this week and into the weekend, bringing moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and seas away from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days across the forecast waters.

Forecaster: Sandy Delgado, National Hurricane Center