Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15AM EDT (0615 UTC) Wednesday Dec 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong high pressure over Texas supports strong to gale-force NW-N winds and rough to very rough seas in the Bay of Campeche. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Veracruz. Winds will subside overnight into Wed, but rough seas will continue into Wednesday evening.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extending from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters near 31N27W and extends to 19N43W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends west to N of the Leeward Islands. Large N swell generated from this system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 21N between 30W and 52W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through late week. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 14N between 25W and 65W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast o Guinea-Bissau near 08N13W and continues to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 04N33W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 20W and 41W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Please read the Active and Developing Storms section above regarding a gale warning in the SW Gulf of America.

A cold and dry continental airmass dominates the Gulf of America behind a frontal boundary that currently extends from the W Atlantic to the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this strong ridge over the central United States and the aforementioned front results in fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force N to NW winds and very rough seas will prevail in the western Bay of Campeche through late tonight. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas over the central and southern basin will diminish from north to south through Wednesday morning. High pressure will build over the basin on Wed, with moderate or weaker winds and slight seas region-wide through Thu. Fresh W to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late week, ahead of a low pressure system moving across the southern United States.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A cold front extends from Playa Giron, Cuba to Tulum, Mexico. A few showers are seen near the front. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas are occurring behind the front. The subtropical ridge supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front over the northwestern Caribbean will weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern basin by late week. Fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front, from the Yucatan Channel through the northwestern basin through Wed. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell will subside by the end of the week.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
See the Active and Developing Storms section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas in the central Atlantic.

Outside of the area the Active and Developing Storms section, a cold front extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Caibarien, Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to locally strong winds are occurring north of 27N and between 51W and 71W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. The rest of the SW North Atlantic is under broad ridging that sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft south of 15N and west of 25W. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, moderate or lighter winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell east of 60W will slowly subside from west to east by early Wed. A cold front extending from SE of Bermuda to central Cuba will progress eastward through midweek. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas in NW swell are expected in the wake of the front into Wed. Fresh to locally strong W winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thursday as a cold front passes north of the waters. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic, with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week.

Forecaster: Sandy Delgado, National Hurricane Center