Hurricane Center - Atlantic

Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wednesday August 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred 
miles southwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and a 
few thunderstorms.  Although the low has remained nearly stationary 
today, it is expected to drift west-southwestward during the next 
couple of days. Any development of this disturbance should be slow 
to occur due to dry air and increasing upper-level winds by the 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster: Stacy R. Stewart, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Thu August 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates the wave environment north of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 10N between 27W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 18N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 06.5N to 11.5N between 43W and 52W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from 13N to 16.5N between 54W and 64W.

A tropical wave is over Central America along 89W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N16W to 10N30W to 10N40W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N47W to 08N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, with the cyclonic center over the east central Gulf. This is producing generally stable atmospheric conditions across much of the Gulf, except for scattered moderate convection across the NE Gulf north of 25.5N extending into the Big Bend region. A few clusters of moderate convection are seen offshore of the SE Louisiana coast and just south of Mobile Bay, to the south of a stalled frontal boundary over coastal sections from south Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. A cluster of moderate convection lingers across the central Bay of Campeche south of 20N.

Light to gentle variable wind will dominate the Gulf waters through Monday night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula waters associated with a surface trough.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N mostly due to the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to strong tradewinds dominate the central Caribbean south of 17N, strongest along the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7-10 ft are found across this area. Elsewhere moderate trades prevail across the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the SW N Atlantic and the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough to Colombia will support fresh to strong tradewinds across the central basin through Fri. Strong trades will increase and expand across the northern central portions over the weekend with the passage of a pair of tropical waves. Near gale-force winds are expected along the Colombia coastal waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean through Monday night, except for fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Fri and Sat nights.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A 1016 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N71W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N45W producing fair weather. Moderate to locally fresh tradewinds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic south of 20N were seas are 5-7 ft.

Over the W Atlantic, a weak low will linger NE of the Bahamas through Sunday night before dissipating. Elsewhere high pressure on either side of the trough will support light to gentle variable winds, except south of 23N, where moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate the waters from the Great Bahama Bank to the waters north of Hispaniola.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center