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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Saturday November 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020.  During the
off-season, Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster: Jack Beven, National Hurricane Center


For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

Active Storms
Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features mentioned below.

...GULF OF MEXICO GForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane CenterE WARNING...

Gale force northerly winds are occurring in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz Mexico. The gale area is from 19N-21N between 94W-97W. Seas are 13-19 ft. The gale is expected to end shortly at 22/0600 UTC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane CenterE WARNING... As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N64W to central Cuba near 22N78W. The N to NE gales are behind the front, N of 28N between 73W-80W. Seas are 15-20 ft. The gale is forecast to end shortly at 22/0600 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-03S between 05W-12W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01S-05S between 15W-22W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N-04S between 25W-48W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Gale force N winds remain over the SW Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz Mexico. See above. 15-30 kt northerly winds are elsewhere over the Gulf. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds cover the basin S of 29N.

Gale force winds offshore of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish overnight. Elsewhere, strong N to NE winds and large seas in N swell will gradually diminish Sat through Sunday as a high pressure ridge builds across the Gulf. Another cold front will move across the Gulf Monday night through Tuesday night, followed by a stronger reinforcing cold front Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Gale force conditions are possible mid week over the SW Gulf behind this front.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N78W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. The front is mostly void of precipitation. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front, to include the Yucatan Channel. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

Strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia will diminish by Sat morning as the pressure gradient weakens across the region. A cold front extending across the Yucatan Channel will bring strong N winds and building seas to the NW Caribbean overnight. The front will weaken as it pushes into the central Caribbean this weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba Sat night through Sunday night behind the front. High pressure will move eastward across the West Atlantic early next week. Another cold front may move into the NW Caribbean Wednesday night.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Gale force winds remain over the W Atlantic. See above. As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N64W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the front N of 27N. A surface trough is E of the Leeward Islands from 23N57W to 17N58W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. A 1034 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N26W. A 1018 mb low is N of the Canary Islands near 31N19W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low center. The low is expected to move SSW over the next 24 hours, and will usher in near gale force winds over the Canary Islands.

The W Atlantic cold front will continue moving SE across the offshore waters through the weekend. Gale force northerly winds and very large seas will continue west of the front over the northern waters through tonight. Low pressure may develop along the front on Sat and bring near gale force winds to the waters E of 70W. Large N swell associated with the front will spread SE through the weekend while gradually decaying. Winds and seas will diminish early next week, then increase over the northern waters by mid week ahead of the next cold front.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center

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