Hurricane Center - Atlantic

Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Friday November 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster: Stacy R. Stewart, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1104 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis extends from well over the interior of Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W to 03N42W to N Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is is along the monsoon trough from 02N-09N between 14W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 05N- 11N between 25W-45W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A 1025 mb high is centered over S Louisiana near 30N92W. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds most of the Gulf of Mexico S of 28N. The far N Gulf has mostly fair weather. 15-20 kt N winds are noted over S Florida where the surface pressure gradient remains strong. A good amount of cold air advection has occurred over the Gulf. Temperatures are in the 30's over the N Gulf States and in the 60's over S Florida.

In the upper levels, a strong jetstream remains from the Yucatan Peninsula to central Florida.

Expect surface high pressure to prevail over the Gulf waters through Mon.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The tail end of a cold front extends from central Cuba at 23N79W to NE Honduras at 15N84W. 20-25 kt N winds are noted W of front. Scattered moderate convection is N of Honduras from 16N-19N between 84W-87W.

A surface trough, the remnants of a tropical wave extends from Jamaica to N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over NW Venezuela.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 78W-85W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over Hispaniola near 19N72W enhancing showers.

Expect the cold front to slowly move southeast, eventually stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras on Sat.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N74W to central Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm E of the front N of 28N. 20kt NW winds are W of front, together with broken low level stratocumulus clouds.

A surface trough is over the S Bahamas and E Cuba from 25N74W to 20N75W. Scattered showers are from 20N-24N between 72W- 75W.

A cold front has dipped into the central Atlantic waters from 32N36W to 29N47W, and dissipating to 30N58W. Another cold front has traversed the Canary Islands and extends from 32N10W to 29N11W to 24N19W. Scattered showers are along the coast of Morocco.

Expect the W Atlantic cold front to become stationary from 31N67W to the SE Bahamas Sat morning. A trough ahead of the front along 75W will stall and dissipate through Sat.

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Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center