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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thursday November 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster: Eric Blake, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

Active Storms
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 14/1500 UTC, a 1019 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 28N96W. A cold front extends south from the low to 24N98W. The front will move SE across the basin through Friday. In the wake of this front, gale-force winds are forecast over the SW Gulf tonight with seas ranging between 8-12 ft. These conditions will continue through late Friday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 18N45W to 13N48W to 07N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm E of the axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 87W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis, mostly over the E Pacific.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N30W to 06N40W to 10N47W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N50W and continues to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N- 10N between 03W-28W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
As of 14/1500 UTC, a 1019 mb low is over the NW Gulf near 28N96W. A cold front extends south from the low to 24N98W. Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning behind this front. Elsewhere, a stationary front extends from S Florida near 25N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N85W to 22N87W to a 1014 mb low over the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front.

The stationary front will gradually become ill defined late today. The W Gulf cold front will progress southeastward through the basin before exiting late Fri. Weak low pressure is expected to form along this front tonight over the NE Gulf then move across the northern Florida Peninsula Fri. Gale force N winds are expected behind the front over SW portions tonight through Fri night. Another cold front may move into the western Gulf late Sunday through Mon.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean and eastern Yucatan Peninsula mainly north of 19N between 84W-88W. Relatively dry air covers much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered showers over the far SW Caribbean and over land from N Colombia to Nicaragua are due to the east Pacific monsoon trough and the tropical wave along 86W. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across the basin.

A cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean late Fri, then gradually stall from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua Sun. The remnants of the front will linger roughly along 80W for the start of next week. Fresh to strong N winds will follow this next cold front as it moves across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds. NE swell will impact the Atlantic and Caribbean passages Fri into early next week.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 27N67W. a stationary front continues to to S Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the cold front. A prefrontal trough extends from 29N58W to 24N57W. Scattered moderate convection is within 280 nm E of the trough. Another surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 21N54W to 13N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm E of this trough. A 1036 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 42N29W.

The frontal system in the west Atlantic will gradually weaken and begin to drift northward to the W of 70W this afternoon through tonight. Strong E-NE winds occurring north of the front will diminish to fresh this afternoon, and decrease further tonight. Low pressure is expected to develop off the NE Florida coast on Fri then drift NE and deepen over the weekend off the coast of the Carolinas, then move NE and exit the region late Sunday through Mon. This low will drag a cold front through areas W of 70W through the weekend. Gale force winds are possible this weekend behind the front, mainly N of 28N.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center

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