Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Tuesday Mar 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale- force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across portions of the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through at least Sat. Winds are expected to be strongest at night due to the enhancement of nocturnal drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A gale-force low northeast of the area near Morocco continues to generate large NE swell with very rough seas to 13 ft. The swell has propagated well southwestward, with very rough seas currently over much of the tropical central and eastern Atlantic. These seas will gradually subside from east to west.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 06N between 10W and 15W and from 01N to 04N between 24W and 28W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A weak surface trough over the central Gulf is producing a small area of disorganized convection from 24N to 27N between 87W and 89W. There is another weak trough over the Bay of Campeche, but no significant shower activity is associated with that feature. Otherwise, generally quiet weather prevails across the remainder of the area. Winds and seas are moderate over portions of the eastern and central Gulf, and are lower over the western waters.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge southwestward into the SE U.S. through the end of the week, with the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be mostly moderate NE to E. Fresh to strong winds are expected each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting tonight.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please see Active and Developing Storms section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

No organized convection is ongoing across the area, though there is a patch of some shower activity between Venezuela and Hispaniola. Otherwise, surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds across the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas in the regions of highest winds are moderate, except for rough seas in portions of the south-central and SE Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad Atlantic high pressure system will maintain a ridge southwestward into Florida and the SE U.S. into the weekend to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Saturday night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thursday through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to slowly subside on Thu.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please see Active and Developing Storms section above for information on a significant swell event.

Alhough high pressure dominates the subtropical and tropical Atlantic basin, there are a few smaller weather features to note. The tail end of a stalled front enters the area near 31N54W and extends to 24N67W. Moderate deep convection is present near the boundary. Just east of the front, a small trough is producing another area of shower activity from 22N to 25N between 60W and 62W. Lastly, the tail end of a cold front extends from Morocoo through 23N25N to 26N39W, though no significant convection is occurring near that boundary. As mentioned in the Active & Developing Storms section, seas are elevated across much of the area due to long period swell propogating from the gale-force low near Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, A stationary front extending from near 31N57W southwestward to 23N70W will become diffuse by this evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas N of the front will diminish tonight. However, rough seas will linger into Wednesday while expanding southeastward and merging with easterly trade wind swell S of 25N and E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic through the next few days and produce fresh to strong E winds mostly south of 25N.

Forecaster: John Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center