Hurricane Center - Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tuesday November 30 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Forecaster: Stacy R. Stewart, National Hurricane Center
2021 Storm Names
• Anna (May 22 - 23, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Bill (June 14 - 16, 60 mph, 998mb)
• Claudette (June 19 - 22, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Danny (June 28 - 29, 45 mph, 1009mb)
• Elsa (July 1 - 9, 85 mph, 991mb)
• Fred (Aug 11 - 18, 65 mph, 993mb)
• Grace (Aug 13 - 21, 125 mph, 962mb)
• Henri (Aug 16 - 24, 75 mph, 986mb)
• Ida (Aug 26 - Sept 2, 150 mph, 933mb)
• Julian (Aug 29 - 30, 60 mph, 995mb)
• Kate (Aug 28 - Sept 1, 40 mph, 1004mb)
• Larry (Aug 31 - Sept 11, 125 mph, 955mb)
• Mindy (Sept 8 - 10, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Nicholas (Sept 12 - 17, 75 mph, 988mb)
• Odette (Sept 17 - 18, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Peter (Sept 19 - 22, 50 mph, 1007mb)
• Rose (Sept 19 - 23, 40 mph, 1007mb)
• Sam (Sept 22 - Oct 5, 145 mph, 943mb)
• Teresa (Sept 24 - 25, 45 mph, 1008mb)
• Victor (Sept 29 - Oct 4, 65 mph, 997mb)
• NEXT: Wanda
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05PM EDT (1805 UTC)
Tuesday Nov 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea and extends to near 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 03N36W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 06N between 20W and 43W.
Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the southeast United States. Recent scatterometer data show gentle winds covering most of the basin, except for moderate NE winds in the southeastern Gulf. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf and 4 to 6 from the Yucatan Channel to the southwest Gulf. Fairly dry weather prevails across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin for the remainder of the week. High pressure will move eastward today into Wed, gradually returning the east to southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week.
Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A shear line is analyzed from the W Atlantic across the central Bahamas to the south-central coast of Cuba, and extending westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. A 1015 mb low is along the shear line near 20N85W producing cloudiness with possible embedded showers. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the far southwest Caribbean south of 12N near the Panama and Costa Rica coastlines, associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. A westward moving surface trough is analyzed just east of the Lesser Antilles from 17N60W to 13N60W and could bring some showers to the islands today. Fresh trade winds are occurring over the central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are also noted on scatterometer data in the Yucatan Channel, to the northwest of the aforementioned low pressure. Seas are likely 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean and 5 to 6 near the Yucatan Channel. A peak of 7 to 8 ft is noted off the coast of Colombia. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, with seas of 2 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, the shear line in the northwest Caribbean will gradually dissipate today. Fresh NE winds over the Yucatan Channel will diminish later today. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean through the end of the week and into the weekend, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia, mainly at night.
Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N59W through the central Bahamas and transitions to a shear line to central Cuba near 22N77W. A trough extends in the wake of the front from near 30N64W to 26N73W. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed ahead of the front from 27N61W to 22N67W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front north of 27N between 53W and 58W. Generally moderate winds are observed by a recent scatterometer pass on both sides of the front, except for fresh S winds within 150 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft north of 29N between 64W and 70W due to a NW-N swell. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic, NE of the Bahamas.
A surface trough is analyzed from 29N43W to 23N46W. A weak upper- level trough in the area is enhancing scattered moderate convection east of the surface trough north of 23N between 40W to 43W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 06N to 09N between 50W to 57W, enhanced by upper-level divergence in the area. Fresh to strong NE to E trades are observed in scatterometer data east of 40W to the coast of Africa from the ITCZ to 30N, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft.
The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N59W to central Cuba will stall from 31N57W to eastern Cuba through tonight, then dissipate through mid week. High pressure will settle across the forecast area in the wake of the front, and dominate the region through Sat.
Nepaul/Forecaster: Andrew Hagen, National Hurricane Center