Hurricane Center - Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thursday November 30 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Forecaster: John Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center
2021 Storm Names
• Anna (May 22 - 23, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Bill (June 14 - 16, 60 mph, 998mb)
• Claudette (June 19 - 22, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Danny (June 28 - 29, 45 mph, 1009mb)
• Elsa (July 1 - 9, 85 mph, 991mb)
• Fred (Aug 11 - 18, 65 mph, 993mb)
• Grace (Aug 13 - 21, 125 mph, 962mb)
• Henri (Aug 16 - 24, 75 mph, 986mb)
• Ida (Aug 26 - Sept 2, 150 mph, 933mb)
• Julian (Aug 29 - 30, 60 mph, 995mb)
• Kate (Aug 28 - Sept 1, 40 mph, 1004mb)
• Larry (Aug 31 - Sept 11, 125 mph, 955mb)
• Mindy (Sept 8 - 10, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Nicholas (Sept 12 - 17, 75 mph, 988mb)
• Odette (Sept 17 - 18, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Peter (Sept 19 - 22, 50 mph, 1007mb)
• Rose (Sept 19 - 23, 40 mph, 1007mb)
• Sam (Sept 22 - Oct 5, 145 mph, 943mb)
• Teresa (Sept 24 - 25, 45 mph, 1008mb)
• Victor (Sept 29 - Oct 4, 65 mph, 997mb)
• NEXT: Wanda
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wednesday Feb 28 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strong high pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure across the Mediterranean Sea has induced gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco that will persist through early Tue. Meteo- France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft by late Tuesday between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to move slowly northeastward and strengthen modestly over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are expected to reach minimal gale-force tonight within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas with these winds are forecast to be 8-11 ft. Winds will remain below gale-force during the day then increase again to minimal gale-force again at night from Wednesday through Fri. Peak seas will build to 9-14 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N10W southwestward to below the Equator at 19W. It continues to 02S27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 03S36W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen west-northwest of the ITCZ from 03S to 01N between 36W and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the trough within 30 nm of line from 04N21W to 02N28W.
...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Broad high pressure stretches from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast to south winds across the basin. South winds locally of 20-25 kt are possible in the far western Gulf near Corpus Christi. Seas range from 3-4 ft over the eastern Gulf south of 26N, to 4-7 ft over the rest of the Gulf, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft in the NW Gulf.
Scattered to broken high clouds streaming eastward are noted north of 26N and west of 85W. These clouds are due to a very pronounced southern jet stream branch that stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward and eastward across the northern Mexico and and most of Texas.
For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf will shift farther eastward allowing a cold front to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong southerly winds will prevail tonight over the western Gulf, then expand into the northern Gulf Wed. Patchy fog is also possible ahead of the front offshore Texas. The cold front will push into the northern Gulf Wednesday night into Thu. It will then stall from near Tampa Bay to just north of Tampico, Mexico, Thursday nigh before lifting back north as a war front on Fri.
...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please see the Active and Developing Storms section above for details on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia starting tonight.
A weakening stationary front extends along the north coast of Hispaniola west-southwestward to the northern part of the Windward Passage. Broken low and mid-level clouds, some with light rain and isolated showers, are along and just inland some of the northern sections of Hispaniola. Isolated showers moving westward are inland the western part of Jamaica. Fresh northeast winds are over the Windward Passage and fresh to strong winds over the waters S of 13.5N to near the coast of Colombia between 74W-76W as confirmed by a scatterometer satellite data pass this afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the stationary front and relatively lower pressure in the Caribbean is sustaining moderate trade winds across the eastern part of the basin, mostly moderate northeast-east winds over the north-central waters and fresh east-southeast winds over the waters north of 18N and west of 85W. Seas range from 6-9 ft offshore of Colombia in the strong winds, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except for 4-6 ft seas from 15N to 18N between 72W-80W.
Patches of moisture in the form of broken low and mid-level clouds along with scattered showers moving westward in the trade wind flow are noted over the far northeastern Caribbean from south of Puerto Rico to near 16N and between 64W-67W. Isolated showers moving westward are elsewhere east of 70W and also from 13N to 17N between 70W-77W.
For the forecast, high pressure will slide east through the western Atlantic into late week, before building southward toward the basin for the end of the week. Fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will expand to dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras as the ridge builds south. Northeast to east winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through at least Friday night.
...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A weakening stationary front is analyzed from near 31N50W, southwestward to 23N61W, to along the north coast of Hispaniola and west-southwestward to the northern part of the Windward Passage. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds and scattered light to moderate showers are noted within 180 nm southeast of the front to the south of 25N, and extend across the Virgin Islands and into the north coast of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm northwest of the front north of 26N. Similar clouds and precipitation activity is south of 21N between 63W-70W, including the waters vicinity of Puerto Rico and the the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes near front depict fresh to strong northeast winds northwest of the boundary to near 62W from 21N to 28N and gentle to moderate east-southeast winds east of the front to near 49W. A strong 1033 mb high center is located well north of the area at 38N57W. A broad ridge extends southwestward from this high center to the Bahamas, then across Florida and to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Broad anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the stationary front.
The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure of 1038 mb that is analyzed well north of the area near 39N21W. A ridge extends from this high southwestward to 30N48W. Between 52W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are gentle to moderate in speed with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas 7-9 ft are between 30W-52W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft seas remain north of 20N between 21W-45W. East of 21W, fresh to locally strong northeast winds and peak seas of 10 to 11 ft continue. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure north of the aforementioned weakening stationary front will slide eastward across the western Atlantic through Wednesday night. A cold front will move across the waters east of northern Florida Thu, then stall Thursday night from around 31N70W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida, before lifting back north as a warm front Friday and Friday night. Strong east winds are expected north of the frontal boundary. A surface trough east of the area may lead to some strong northeast winds across the northeast forecast waters this weekend.
Forecaster: Jorge Aguirre-Echevarria, National Hurricane Center