Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Wednesday Mar 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 05N E of 20W.

Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are N of the front. Similar conditions are in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. No convection is noted across the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later today, while weak high pressure will move over the northeast Gulf tonight through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Saturday morning and reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Saturday night through Sun night.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A surface trough extends from 15N80W to 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection is between this trough, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also present in region. Aside from the far SW basin, where like to gentle winds prevail, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the majority of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia tonight through Saturday night. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola early next week.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A stationary front extends from 31N63W to near Stuart, Florida. Scattered moderate convection has developed along this boundary N of the Bahamas. N of the boundary, fresh NE to E winds and rough seas are present.

For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas are N and W of the low center, impacting waters N of 24N and E of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas north of the aforementioned stationary front will diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thursday through late Friday across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Saturday morning, and reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Saturday night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front.

Forecaster: Stephen Konarik, National Hurricane Center