Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:15PM EDT (1815 UTC) Sun September 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.3N 43.8W at 27/1500 UTC or 990 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 7 ft are within 60 nm of the depression. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 27N to 29N between 43W and 46W.

and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is analyzed along 69W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted over water at this time near this wave.

The tropical wave previously analyzed over the W Caribbean is now over Central America, transitioning into the Eastern Pacific. For more information on this tropical wave, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP).

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from 15N25W to 08N42.5W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42.5W to 10.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15.5N west of 20W. Similar convection is depicted from 06.5N to 17N between 21W and 35W. The interaction of an upper level trough with the ITCZ is supporting a cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 11N to 15.5N between 54W and the Lesser Antilles.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
The remnants of a former front are analyzed as a surface trough that extends from the Yucatan Channel to 24N90W to N of Tampico, Mexico near 24N97W. Scattered moderate convection is found along the trough between 85.5W and 90W. Otherwise, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche, generating isolated showers S of 20N. A weak pressure gradient is supporting light to gentle winds basin- wide while seas are slight.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through today, then become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin through the early part of the week as high pressure builds over the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf starting mid week, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A weak pressure gradient, due to the passage of a cold front N of the region, is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and central basin, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft basin- wide, except slight in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through Monday night. Expect gentle to moderate E to SE winds thereafter through mid week as the high pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the pattern will allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by Thu, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please see the Active and Developing Storms section above for information on Tropical Depression Fey.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms persist along a trough (remnants of a cold front) reaching from 31N65W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba. A cold front is following the front, reaching from 31N69W to almost the northern Bahamas. Aside from the shower activity, moderate to fresh SW winds are also ahead of the trough along with rough seas to 9 ft.

The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo are centered near 20.5N23.5W with estimated minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Recent ASCAT depicted moderate to fresh cyclonic winds near the low. Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 ft. The remnant low of Gonzalo will continue to move N-NW and away from the Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, while gradually weakening.

For the forecast west of 55W, large swell off the northern Bahamas will subside today, as will moderate SW winds along the trough, leaving gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the region. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by mid week.

Forecaster: Keren Rosado-Vazquez, National Hurricane Center