Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Monday September 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

Tropical Waves
The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is present near this wave.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 45W and 48W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 14N and west of 80W in the SW Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 06N45W and then resumes from 06N48W to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 34W and 42W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. A 1015 mb high is centered near 26N88W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the SW Gulf, where moderate seas are noted. Light winds and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the islands and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 25N to south Florida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will tighten today, leading to an increase in areal coverage of strong winds, locally near- gale force, through midweek. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A stationary front is along 31N west of 68W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 26N53W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds, and 6-8 ft seas, N of 28N between 50W and 65W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. A stronger high center, 1027 mb, is centered near 35N23W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough and east of 25W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, cover the waters W of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 25N to south Florida will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen early this week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 65W through Tue.

Forecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center