Hurricane Center - Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wednesday November 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2023. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Forecaster: Jack Beven, National Hurricane Center
2021 Storm Names
• Anna (May 22 - 23, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Bill (June 14 - 16, 60 mph, 998mb)
• Claudette (June 19 - 22, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Danny (June 28 - 29, 45 mph, 1009mb)
• Elsa (July 1 - 9, 85 mph, 991mb)
• Fred (Aug 11 - 18, 65 mph, 993mb)
• Grace (Aug 13 - 21, 125 mph, 962mb)
• Henri (Aug 16 - 24, 75 mph, 986mb)
• Ida (Aug 26 - Sept 2, 150 mph, 933mb)
• Julian (Aug 29 - 30, 60 mph, 995mb)
• Kate (Aug 28 - Sept 1, 40 mph, 1004mb)
• Larry (Aug 31 - Sept 11, 125 mph, 955mb)
• Mindy (Sept 8 - 10, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Nicholas (Sept 12 - 17, 75 mph, 988mb)
• Odette (Sept 17 - 18, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Peter (Sept 19 - 22, 50 mph, 1007mb)
• Rose (Sept 19 - 23, 40 mph, 1007mb)
• Sam (Sept 22 - Oct 5, 145 mph, 943mb)
• Teresa (Sept 24 - 25, 45 mph, 1008mb)
• Victor (Sept 29 - Oct 4, 65 mph, 997mb)
• NEXT: Wanda
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
7:05AM EST (1205 UTC) Sunday Mar 26 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tuesday night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W.
Atlantic large swell event: Large NW swell associated with a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has propagated into the discussion waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are covering the waters N of 30N between 42W and 52W, peaking near 13 ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of 25N and east of 45W Sunday and Sunday night, before shifting east of 35W early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N40W late today. Wave periods will average 12 to 14 seconds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from 00N21W to 03S37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 05W and 18W, and from 00N to 05N between 23W and 41W.
Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a surface ridge extending into the central Gulf from the western Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through this period. A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Tuesday morning. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tuesday night, then will weaken from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche midweek. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected over the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds will prevail across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf behind the front.
Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Strong to near gale- force winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, reaching gale- force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong to near- gale winds are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere, except 2-4 ft in the lee of Cuba.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale- force at night through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola through Monday night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras until Wednesday afternoon, occasionally reaching near- gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell event expected to begin tonight.
High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N65W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 29N50W to 31N58W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front N of 30N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted W of 70W, as well as S of 20N and W of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of seas greater than 12 ft, seas of 8-12 ft prevail N of 28N between 35W and 58W. Seas of 4-6 ft are found west of 65W, and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Tuesday evening, then slowly track eastward north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu.
Forecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center