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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sunday September 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low
pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is
becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical
storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15
mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands
during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.  Interests across
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and
tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already
producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster: Eric Blake, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 AM EDT Sunday September 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.

Active Storms
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 24.1N 66.3W at 22/0300 UTC or 500 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 20N- 25N between 64W-67W. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 60W and S of 16N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depict this wave well. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-14N between 55W-64W. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. This system has a high chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours.

A tropical wave over west Africa with axis along 15W and S of 19N is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N-15N between 11W-19W. The tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa overnight and on Sunday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 31W and S of 19N is moving W at 15-20 kt. Model guidance and satellite imagery depicts this wave well. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 20W-29W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered off the coast of Virginia near 37N70W. This feature is keeping an east to southeast surface flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong E winds over the eastern Gulf north of 24N and east of 90W, while gentle to moderate winds prevail farther south and west. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf, S Florida, and the Straits of Florida. An upper-level trough is over the E Gulf with upper level diffluence over the SE Gulf enhancing convection.

High pressure centered along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. will dominate the Gulf waters into the start of next week. The pressure gradient remain quite tight over the eastern Gulf through Sunday afternoon, resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas. New high pressure will develop over the northern Gulf early next week, causing the pressure gradient to weaken and wind and sea conditions to improve through the middle of the week.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A 1011 mb surface low is centered just east of the eastern tip of Jamaica near 19N76W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere along the north coast of Hispaniola and Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Colombia from 13N-15N between 71W-74W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over S Guatemala, El Salvador, W Honduras, and W Nicaragua. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia and the SW Caribbean S of 11N mostly due to the East Pacific monsoon trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across much of the basin.

Large northerly swell will continue to pass through the NE Caribbean passages through the remainder of the weekend. A strong tropical wave along 59W is likely to form into low pressure as it crosses the Windward Islands tonight through Sun, bringing gale conditions to portions of the area. There is a high chance that this feature will develop into a tropical cyclone through the weekend, and a high chance early next week as it moves WNW or NW through the E Caribbean.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Jerry.

A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N52W to 28N63W. A stationary front continues to 24N74W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 29N45W. The tail end of a stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 31N16W to 26N33W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.

Tropical Storm Jerry near 24.1N 66.3W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Jerry will move to 25.4N 67.1W Sunday morning, 26.7N 67.8W Sunday evening and 28.0N 68.0W Monday morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it turns northward away from the area Monday afternoon, then approach Bermuda Tue, and move farther way into the central North Atlantic Wednesday and Thu. Meanwhile, large remnant northerly swell will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters N of the Bahamas through Sunday.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center



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