Hurricane Center - Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thursday November 30 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Forecaster: John Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center
2021 Storm Names
• Anna (May 22 - 23, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Bill (June 14 - 16, 60 mph, 998mb)
• Claudette (June 19 - 22, 45 mph, 1004mb)
• Danny (June 28 - 29, 45 mph, 1009mb)
• Elsa (July 1 - 9, 85 mph, 991mb)
• Fred (Aug 11 - 18, 65 mph, 993mb)
• Grace (Aug 13 - 21, 125 mph, 962mb)
• Henri (Aug 16 - 24, 75 mph, 986mb)
• Ida (Aug 26 - Sept 2, 150 mph, 933mb)
• Julian (Aug 29 - 30, 60 mph, 995mb)
• Kate (Aug 28 - Sept 1, 40 mph, 1004mb)
• Larry (Aug 31 - Sept 11, 125 mph, 955mb)
• Mindy (Sept 8 - 10, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Nicholas (Sept 12 - 17, 75 mph, 988mb)
• Odette (Sept 17 - 18, 45 mph, 1002mb)
• Peter (Sept 19 - 22, 50 mph, 1007mb)
• Rose (Sept 19 - 23, 40 mph, 1007mb)
• Sam (Sept 22 - Oct 5, 145 mph, 943mb)
• Teresa (Sept 24 - 25, 45 mph, 1008mb)
• Victor (Sept 29 - Oct 4, 65 mph, 997mb)
• NEXT: Wanda
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05PM EDT (1805 UTC)
Saturday Dec 2 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.
Active and Developing Storms
East Atlantic Gale Warning: 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 30N40W. N to NE gales are analyzed north of 30N between 40W and 43W with peak seas of 17 ft. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of a line from 31N38W to 28N40W to 28N45W to 331N46W with a NE swell direction and period of 9-10 seconds. Winds and seas will diminish beginning on Sunday as the low weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 03N32W. A second segment of the ITCZ is from 02N40W to the equator and 48W. Between the ITCZ segments, a surface trough is along 37W from 03N to 09N. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator north to 07N between 33W and 38W.
Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
1011 mb low pressure is centered near 29N93W. A warm front extends ENE from the low pressure across SE Louisiana through the coastal NE Gulf waters into the Florida Panhandle. A cold front extends SW from the low pressure to Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of the front, with moderate to fresh S to SW winds east of the front. Seas are 3-6 ft across the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 83W and 90W.
For the forecast, the cold front will move little today and then move SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sun evening, from South Florida to the south-central Bay of Campeche Monday evening, and extend from central Cuba to near the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW Gulf on Tuesday before becoming stationary and dissipating by late Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night from 22N to 26N west of 90W.
Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Strong high pressure in the subtropical Atlantic continues to support strong to near-gale force trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. These wind speeds were observed by satellite scatterometer this morning. Trades are fresh elsewhere in the central Caribbean. As a result of these wind speeds, seas have built to 8-11 ft within the central and SW Caribbean from 09N to 16N between 71W and 81W, with peak seas near 12N77W. Elsewhere in the eastern and western Caribbean, trades are moderate to locally fresh with 5-7 ft seas.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight. As the high weakens and shifts eastward, the area of fresh to strong trade winds will diminish some Monday into Tue. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by fresh northeast winds.
Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please See the Active & Developing Storms section for information on an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.
A cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure near 30N40W to 20N61W. A shear line continues from 20N61W to 21N67W to 25N74W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the front and shear line. A few showers are along the cold front. Seas greater than 8 ft are north of the cold front between 35W and 59W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 24N37W to 20N43W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of strong subtropical high pressure currently located over Bermuda and near Portugal. Gentle to moderate trades prevail, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it moves slowly southward through tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in N swell prevail north of the front this morning and will gradually subside through late Sun. Strong high pressure centered well north of the region will shift eastward and weaken into early next week ahead of the next cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the northwest Bahamas and to near the Florida Keys Monday night, and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by Tuesday night. Another cold front is expected to move across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas.
Forecaster: Aidan Mahoney, National Hurricane Center