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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
955 AM EST Tuesday Dec 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between 
the Madeira Islands and the Azores.  This system has become less 
organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are 
expected to become less conducive for development as the system 
moves southwestward during the next day or two.  Although 
subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue 
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira 
Islands and the Azores through Wednesday.  Additional information on 
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo 
France. 

This will be the last Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 
this system.  Regularly scheduled Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlooks will 
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster: Jack Beven, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to 03N32W to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N between 15W-32W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
The gale warning in the central Gulf has ended. A 1023 mb high centered in northeast Mexico is allowing for higher pressure to spread over the western Gulf. As of 1525 UTC, scatterometer data revealed moderate to fresh NW winds in the northwestern Gulf becoming fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf in the wake of a cold front that passed through the area this morning. Flow turns to fresh to strong northerly winds in the extreme southwestern Gulf and within the Bay of Campeche. No significant precipitation is noted in the basin. Seas in the northeastern area of the basin are reaching up to 10 ft.

High pressure will continue to build across the basin. Seas associated with this morning's gale warning will gradually subside. The high pressure will support generally tranquil marine conditions across the basin Sunday into Mon, then will shift east of the area early next week. This pattern will support increased winds and seas over the northwest Gulf Monday and Tuesday between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas, before diminishing through mid week.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
The cold front moving eastward from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan channel has overtaken the dissipating stationary front. Scattered showers are within 90 nm east of the boundary, noted off the coast Honduras and reaching western Cuba. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted over the northwest Caribbean, although winds are likely increasing near the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the eastern half of the basin with seas ranging from 5-7 ft.

The cold front extending across the northwest Caribbean will stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then dissipate through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sunday through Wednesday night. These winds may pulse to gale force mainly at night off Colombia starting Tuesday night.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
West of 55W: a cold front stretching from 32N73W to the northern Bahamas to the northwest Caribbean is producing strong west winds and 7-9 ft seas behind the boundary. Fresh to strong S-SW wind is east of the boundary along with scattered moderate convection that is noted north of 26N. Weak ridging centered near 35N58W is maintaining gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, before stalling from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by late Sunday and dissipating early Mon. Another cold front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sun, and also stall from 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Monday night and early Tue, before dissipating through mid week.

Farther east, a cold front reaches from 32N44W to 24N55W. Ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N, supporting fresh trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in mainly NE swell south of 20N.

Mora

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