Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge located north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and Monday night. A recent scatterometer pass captured strong to gale-force easterly winds over much of the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas will build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue to affect the south-central Caribbean through the work week.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W and continues southward to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 08N and east of 30W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
High pressure situated over the eastern Gulf promotes moderate to fresh return southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft over west of 90W. East of 90W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Generally dry conditions are found across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern basin early this week. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly through early this week, supporting pulses of fresh to locally strong winds over adjacent waters. The next cold front may enter the northern basin late Mon, but will likely dissipate as it moves into the central and eastern Gulf through Tuesday night. High pressure building over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the northwest Gulf by Thu.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A Gale Warning remains in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer to the Active and Developing Storms section above for more information.

Pockets of low-level moisture are traversing the Caribbean Sea and supporting isolated showers. Some of this activity is impacting Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that outside of the gale area, fresh to near gale-force easterly winds are present in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas are occurring in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and possibly Monday night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will extend across the Gulf of Honduras tonight into mid-week.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough extends from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas and another surface trough is noted in the central Atlantic. A few shallow showers are noted near these boundaries. The tropical Atlantic is dominates broad ridging, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas west of 35W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge near the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds east of 35W and north of 15W. Seas in these waters are rough to very rough, with the highest seas near 14 ft occurring off Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build over the western Atlantic, supporting gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas north of 22N early this week. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Monday enabling a weak cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast Monday night. Fresh to strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola into mid week. Another cold front may move into waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed.

Forecaster: Sandy Delgado, National Hurricane Center