Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
8:15AM EDT (1215 UTC) Wednesday Oct 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 14.3N 53.7W at 08/1800 UTC or 590 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking round 22 ft north and east of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm SE of the center, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 47 and 53W. The fast motion of Jerry and moderate westerly vertical wind shear have caused the low level center of Jerry to become exposed just to the NW of the strong convection, and is preventing further intensification at this time. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend. On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Bay of Campeche. The system is expected to move inland over Mexico tonight, and therefore its opportunity for any development will be ending soon. Regardless, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.Aided by abundant tropical moisture across the region, there is a high potential for heavy rain for the coastal areas from southern Tamaulipas State southward to southern Veracruz State, including the eastern parts of San Luis Potosi, Queretaro and Hidalgo States. With the ground in the region already saturated from earlier rainfall, this will greatly increase the chance for flash and urban flooding. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency.

Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave axis meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 24N between 60W and 72W as the wave interacts with an upper level low over the Mona Passage. This convective activity is currently affecting most of the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 77W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A few showers are near the northern end of the wave axis, mainly between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W, then curves southwestward to 10N21W. The ITCZ extends from 10N21W to 05N30W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate isolates strong convection is observed within 130-150 nm N of the ITCZ between 22W and 35W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of America (Gulf Of Mexico)
Please Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section on potential heavy rain across eastern Mexico.

Scattered moderate convection dots the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida in association with an E to W trough across the area. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the trough axis near 24N80W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are found N of the trough to about 27N over most of the Gulf from 24N to 29N, with seas 4 to 5 ft. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted over the western Bay of Campeche where winds are fresh to strong from the NW in the Veracruz area. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a trough of low pressure moving westward across the Bay of Campeche. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico by early Thursday. Winds over the SW Gulf continue to strong breeze with the trough through early this evening. Elsewhere, a building high pressure north of the Gulf will promote fresh to strong NE winds over the NE Gulf from Thursday night through Friday night. Looking ahead, winds and seas across the entire Gulf should be quiescent on the weekend.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the Active & Developing Storms section about Tropical Storm Jerry in the central tropical Atlantic which may affect the northern Leeward Islands toward the weekend.

A weak pressure gradient prevail across the Caribbean, south of a lingering frontal boundary that stretches across the Atlantic north of the area along 24N-26N. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh winds off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. Fading NE swell from the Atlantic continues to bleed through the Mona and Anegada Passages, supporting 4 to 5 ft combined seas, and reaching the coast of central Venezuela and northeast Colombia. Elsewhere, generally 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 14.7N 55.1W this evening, 16.1N 58.2W Thursday morning, 17.9N 60.5W Thursday evening just east of the Leeward Islands, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.0N 61.9W Friday morning just north of the Leeward Islands, 22.5N 62.4W Friday evening, and 25.1N 62.2W Saturday morning. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to the southeast of Bermuda early Sun. No significant winds or seas from Jerry will impact the Caribbean, except for some large NE swell pushing into the Anegada and Mona Passages.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please Refer to the Active and Developing Storms section at the very beginning for more details on Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N38W to 27N50W to 25N71W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front E of 70W. A 1028 mb high pressure is behind the front centered over the NW Atlantic near 37N54W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the lingering front is producing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas north of the front to about 32N. As of 15Z, a surface trough is analyzed over the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. This system is producing some shower activity. South of the front, an upper level low is across the Atlantic waters north of the Mona Passage, and is interacting with the northern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave. This is helping to induce scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from the northern Leeward Islands to the front between 60W and 71W.

Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 21N and east of 22W, including between the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas, primarily in northerly swell persist elsewhere, outside the main impact area of Jerry.

For the forecast, winds, north of the aforementioned stationary will gradually diminish through Thursday as the front drifts northward and dissipates. Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to gradually intensify, reaching near 14.2N 53.4W Wednesday afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 59.5W Thursday afternoon, reach near 21.1N 62.9W Friday afternoon, near 23.6N 63.2W Friday night, and near 28.3N 63.0W Saturday night. Jerry will then begin to gradually weaken as it moves NE and exits to the north of 31N early Mon. Looking ahead, low pressure is expected to develop offshore of NE Florida and Georgia Saturday and move northeastward through the weekend. Expect increasing winds and seas north of the Bahamas on Saturday and Sun.

Forecaster: Gladys Rubio, National Hurricane Center/Chan