Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun September 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC.

Active and Developing Storms
Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 20.3N 42.9W at 14/2100 UTC or 1110 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 180 nm in the NE quadrant and 150 nm in the SE quadrant with peak seas around 16 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 23N between 36W and 43W. Gordon is expected to have a slightly slower W or WSW motion during the next several days. Gordon is forecast to weaken tonight and become a tropical depression on Sunday.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in the next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form in the next couple of days while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.

Tropical Waves
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W from 03N to 17N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm of the wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 20N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 11N to 16N between 61W and 68W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W extending from 21N to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the wave.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N35W, and then from 14N49W to 12N54W. The ITCZ extends from 12N54W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 200 nm of both the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the southwestern Caribbean, and is generating scattered moderate convection from the coasts of Colombia to Nicaragua, S of 15N between 74W and 84W.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A 1011 mb low pressure is noted along the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W with a cold front extending southwest of the low to 26N89W. No significant convection is noted over the water at this time as all convection is over Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin.

A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted north of Colombia and northern Venezuela. Otherwise, gentle to moderate east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters the next several days.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please See the Active & Developing Storms section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic and the developing area of low pressure off the southeastern US coast, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin.

A stationary front extends from NE Florida to a 1009 mb low near 31N75W. A surface trough also extends from the low to South Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the Florida coast and ahead of the pre frontal trough N of 25N between 68W and 80W. Farther east, the stationary front dips from 31N54W to 31N64W, with scattered moderate to strong convection occurring N of 26N between 53W and 66W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection. Earlier scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of 28W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in the next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form in the next couple of days while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise.

Forecaster: Amanda Reinhart, National Hurricane Center