Hurricane Center - Atlantic

Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Saturday July 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster: Daniel Brown, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT Sat July 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22W and S of 20N, moving W around 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant convection is noted in the wave's environment. Showers are seen within 100 nm on either side of this feature from 06N- 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N46W to 04N47W, moving W around 10-15k. At this time, no significant convection is noted in the wave's environment.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and S of 20N and moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 10N between 53W-59W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 75W from 07N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time.

The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula along 92W and S of 19N moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the whole peninsula and adjacent waters between 86W-94W.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 09N47W, then W of a tropical wave near 09N50W to 08N54W. Scattered showers are seen S the monsoon trough mainly east of 21W, while scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ mainly west of 50W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
An inverted mid-to-upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to the Yucatan. This is giving way to scattered moderate convection across the northeast Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N90W to 28N87W and is acting as a focal point for this convection. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N85W. Light to gentle S-SE winds are noted across the Gulf, with pulsing moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche.

The surface trough over the north central Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf N of 27N between 84W and 90W tonight before it dissipates. A ridge will build along the northern Gulf coast Sunday and Mon, then start to retreat eastward midweek. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will continue across most of the basin, except fresh to locally strong winds will pulse NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wednesday night.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave.

An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean. This is contributing to convection across the NW basin. Scattered moderate convection is also noted over Cuba, Grand Cayman Islands, and into the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean, with strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades prevail in the NW basin.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through next week. Winds will reach near-gale force strength each night along the coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the basin.

Convection associated with the activity in the Gulf of Mexico is also seen in the western Atlantic along the S Florida coast moving inland in addition to the northern Bahamas mainly west of 77W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 27N67W to 20N68W with scattered showers. Another trough is analyzed from 25N47W to 30N41W with isolated showers. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N63W and a 1020 mb high near 29N51W. Moderate easterly winds are seen between Cuba and the Bahamas, E of 78W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania.

The surface ridge along will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tuesday night. The ridge will start retreating eastward Tuesday enabling a trough to move into the NW waters Thu. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week.

Forecaster: Evelyn Rivera-Acevedo, National Hurricane Center