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Hurricane Center - Atlantic


Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sunday May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low 
pressure over the central Atlantic and the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

An area of low pressure located about 350 miles east of Bermuda is 
producing limited shower activity.  The low is forecast to move 
northeastward at 5 to 10 mph later today, and development is not 
expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Tropical Depression Two-E, located near the Pacific coasts of 
Guatemala and El Salvador, is forecast to move inland and dissipate 
over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.  However, the 
remnants are expected to turn northwestward within a broader 
developing area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the 
Bay of Campeche on Monday.  If the remnants do move back over 
water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some 
redevelopment of the system while it moves little during much of 
the upcoming week.  Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is 
likely over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. 
The next Special Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued later 
this morning by 9 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EDT Sunday May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.

Active Storms
...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the W part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details.

TD Two-E on 31/0300 UTC is centered within the gyre circulation in the eastern north Pacific near 13.0N 90.6W. The depression will move inland over Guatemala today and dissipate tonight. However, the larger threat will continue to be the Central American Gyre, which will linger across Central America and southern Mexico well after the TD dissipates.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W, from 20N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 15N and W of 80W. The tropical wave will merge into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre later this morning.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N28W. The ITCZ continues from 06N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-09N between 10W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Brazil from 03N-03S between 40W-50W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Please read the SPECIForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days.

A stationary front extends along 30N from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas.. A surface trough extends from 25N96W to 19N94W in the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N-26N between 88W-95W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the SW Gulf W of the trough, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

A weak cold front will move into the northeast Gulf early Mon, then stall and dissipate in the eastern Gulf by early Tue. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest Gulf on Monday and Tuesday as a Central American Gyre develops over southeast Mexico and northern Central America.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
Please read the SPECIForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean, and will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central American Gyre Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

A tropical wave south of W Cuba will move across W Caribbean through Sunday with little impact. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras Monday through at least Thu night as Central American Gyre develops over N Central America and S Mexico. As the Bermuda High rebuilds to the north, E trade winds north of Colombia should increase on Thu.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Please read the SPECIForecaster: Andrew Levine, National Hurricane Center FEATURES section for more information about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W.

A 1015 mb low pressure is center is near 31N59W with a trough extending southward to 25N59W. A surface trough extends from 26N70W to near the windward passage. Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly about 200 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere east of the Lesser Antilles an area of scattered showers is seen from 11N-19N between 00W-60W. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the tropics S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development today as the system moves generally northward, and development of this system has become less likely.

A ridge just north of the area will weaken Sunday ahead of a cold front moving south of 31N Sunday night. The front will reach from Bermuda to S Florida on Monday afternoon, stall along 25N by Tuesday afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to moderate or strong on Monday and Tue. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh trade winds by mid week south of 22N.

Forecaster: Mike Formosa, National Hurricane Center/Forecaster: Eric Christensen, National Hurricane Center

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