Hurricane Center - Atlantic

Tropical Outlook

altantic tropical storm outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Friday November 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located several hundred miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster: David Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center

For detailed analysis see the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

Sea Temperatures

sea temperatures

sea temperatures north atlantic

sea temperatures south atlantic

Tropical Discussion

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
545 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

Active Storms
Tropical Storm Sebastien is near 24.8N 57.0W at 22/0900 UTC, or about 520 nm NE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving ENE at 13 kt. Minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is within 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates the center is exposed with all convection to the NE of the center. An ENE to NE motion is expected during the next few days, along with gradual weakening. The Public Advisories for Sebastien are available via AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC. The Forecast/Advisories for Sebastien are available via the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC.

Tropical Waves / Developing Storms
An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32/33W, moving W around 10 kt. The wave shows up well in TPW imagery and model diagnostics. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is seen from 00N-09N between 27W-36W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N-10N between 25W-39W.

Another, weaker tropical wave is along 42/43W from 05N-13N, moving W-NW around 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 13N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 06N-16N, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are along and within 120 nm E of the wave axis from 12N-16N.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 04N31W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N35W to 02N46W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate convection is seen from 01N-09N between 07W-17W.

Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
Deep-layered anticyclonic wind flow covers the basin. Scattered showers are over coastal areas of SE Texas and portions of Louisiana, ahead of a cold front over central Texas. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh SE winds across the basin.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area through today, with fresh SE return flow persisting over the western Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast and into the NW Gulf this evening, cross the northern and central waters this weekend, then weaken and stall over the southern Gulf Sunday night into Mon. Another cold front may move into the NW Gulf Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Discussion: Caribbean Sea
A cold front extends from 20N62W to Puerto Rico to 18N71W. The front continues as stationary to Jamaica. A surface trough extends southwestward from 21N56W to 17N62W to 15N70W. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are in between the front and the trough from 14N-18N between 60W-75W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong N-NE winds in the Mona and Windward Passages, and south of the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

The front in the NE Caribbean will completely stall and weaken through tonight. Fresh NE winds will prevail across the waters N of the front today, with the strongest winds expected through the Windward and Mona passages, as well as S of the Dominican Republic, as high pressure builds behind the front. Easterly trades will freshen across the south-central Caribbean early next week, increasing to strong Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Surface high pressure ridging covers the western Atlantic west of 65W, stemming from a 1022 mb high centered near 32N77W. Fresh N to NE winds are throughout the Bahamas region. Strong N winds are from 20N-30N between 63W-70W. A cold front passes through 32N54W to 26N59W to 19N63W to Puerto Rico. The front is just a short distance west of T.S. Sebastien. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above associated with Sebastien, scattered moderate convection is along and within 180 nm E of the cold front north of Sebastien to 32N. A surface trough that trails from the southern side of T.S. Sebastien extends from 21N56W to 17N62W to 15N70W. Scattered showers and tstorms are near the trough axis.

Farther east, an upper-level low near 21N41W is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from about 13N-25N between 30W-43W. North of that, fair weather prevails due to a 1021 mb high centered near 32N33W. A cold front extends from 32N11W to the Canary Islands near 28N15W to 25N21W to 25N26W with no significant precipitation noted.

Sebastien will continue to accelerate northeastward away from the forecast waters today. The cold front from 26N59W to 19N63W to Puerto Rico will continue moving eastward and steer Sebastien into the central Atlantic. High pressure will build behind the cold front across the northern waters through Sat, then shift eastward Sat night. The next cold front will cross the western Atlantic Sunday through Mon, weakening near 70W Tuesday and Tuesday night.