Atlantic from 19N to 22N between 55W and 65W Offshore Forecast
| Overnight...S Of 23n, E Winds 10 Kt In The Late Evening And Early Morning, Becoming Variable Less Than 5 Kt. N Of 23n, Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft In N To Ne Swell. Scattered Showers. |
| Fri...S Of 23n, Se Winds 10 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon. Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt Early In The Evening. N Of 23n, Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft In Nw Swell. Scattered Showers. |
| Fri Night...S Of 23n, Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming N 10 Kt Early In The Morning. N Of 23n, W To Nw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft In Nw Swell. Scattered Showers And Isolated Tstms. |
| Sat...S Of 23n, N Winds 10 Kt. N Of 23n, Nw To N Winds 10 Kt, Shifting To N 15 To 20 Kt Early In The Evening. Seas 6 To 8 Ft In Nw To N Swell. |
| Sat Night...Winds N To Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft In Nw To N Swell. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Ne To E Winds 15 To 20 Kt S Of 23n, And Ne To E 10 To 15 Kt N Of 23n. Seas 5 To 7 Ft In Nw To N Swell. |
| Mon...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Mon Night...E To Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft In E Swell. |
| Tue...Se Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 10 Kt S Of 23n, And Variable Less Than 5 Kt N Of 23n. Seas 3 To 5 Ft In E Swell. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 259pm AST Thu Feb 12 2026 .Short Term(This evening through Saturday)... Issued at 259pm AST Thu Feb 12 2026 The arrival of an induced surface trough and increased moisture, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values between 1.7 and 1.8 inches as shown by derived satellite imagery and the 12Z TJSJ sounding, resulted in showers across the Caribbean waters this morning, with a few capable of producing isolated thunderstorms. Under a northeasterly wind pattern, a strong band of showers moved into southern Puerto Rico, producing gusty winds and leaving between 1 and 1.5 inches of rainfall based on radar estimates. The showers then continued to move and develop across eastern and northern Puerto Rico, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. The greatest rainfall accumulations were observed between San Lorenzo and Yabucoa, with around 2 to 3 inches reported. Other areas received around 1 to 2 inches, while the U.S. Virgin Islands observed around 0.25 inches or less. Daytime temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s across coastal and urban areas and mainly in the 70s across the mountainous regions. A broad surface high pressure system over the central to eastern Atlantic will promote east to southeasterly winds across the islands. Under this pattern, moisture associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary has increased moisture content and cloudiness across the region, along with the presence of the surface trough. This afternoon and tonight, additional showers will be possible across the waters, with some reaching eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands once again. However, the strongest activity for today has already occurred. Similar conditions are forecast for Friday morning, with southeasterly winds driven by the interaction between the surface high pressure and the approach of a prefrontal boundary sinking north of the region. As Friday morning progresses, a much drier air mass is expected to dominate the region. According to the latest model guidance, PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will drop to near-normal or below-average levels. Therefore, although conditions may begin somewhat variable in the morning, limited shower activity is expected for most of the day. On Saturday, as the prefrontal trough moves closer to the region, winds will shift from east-southeast to east-northeast. Additionally, a weak pressure gradient is expected, resulting in light and variable winds. Near-normal moisture content will likely result in variable conditions with isolated to scattered showers, mainly across the western interior of Puerto Rico during the afternoon, posing little to no flood risk. Slightly warmer daytime temperatures are forecast in the long term, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s across coastal and urban areas, and from the low 80s across the mountainous regions. .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 257am AST Thu Feb 12 2026 As of right now, the wettest portion of the forecast period is expected from Sunday into Monday, as another frontal boundary approaches the forecast area from the northwest. This feature, combined with a prevailing mid- to upper-level trough, will promote enhanced moisture convergence and instability across the region. Increasing precipitable water values and favorable upper-level dynamics will support a higher coverage of showers, particularly across northern and western Puerto Rico, with periods of locally heavy rainfall possible. On Monday, winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction as a surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the latter part of the period. By Tuesday, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to establish across the region, promoting a gradual stabilization of the atmosphere. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance supports this trend, with values returning closer to the seasonal values for this time of the year around 1.20 to 1.55 inches. Under this pattern, trade-wind moisture will favor brief passing morning showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective development over interior and western Puerto Rico. Overall, the flooding threat should decrease after Monday as more stable conditions take hold. Warm and humid conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the period. Residents are encouraged to continue monitoring future forecasts, especially regarding rainfall trends early in the week. Marine Issued at 259pm AST Thu Feb 12 2026 A frontal low over the northwestern Atlantic will continue to move eastward as a surface high builds over the southwestern Atlantic during the weekend. Under this pattern, southeasterly winds tonight will continue backing, becoming more northeasterly by Saturday night. Seas will continue to subside as detected by offshore and nearshore buoys. Marine conditions are expected to improve through the weekend as seas subside and winds weaken. However, pulses of northerly swell will reach the Atlantic waters by Monday of next week, causing marine conditions to once again become hazardous at times, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters. Beach Forecast Issued at 259pm AST Thu Feb 12 2026 A high risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf zone) will continue tonight for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico and Culebra as breaking waves reach 6 to 7 feet. A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone) will be in effect tonight for the USVI, Vieques, northwestern PR and southwestern PR. Seas will continue to subside tonight and, by tomorrow, up to a moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect for the northwestern, northern and northeastern beaches of PR, as well as for beaches of Culebra, Vieques and the USVI. Additional pulses of northerly swell will reach the Atlantic coast during the weekend. For more information, visit: weather.gov/beach/sju. .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005- 008-012. High Rip Current Risk until 6pm AST this evening for PRZ010. VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6pm AST this evening for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm AST this evening for AMZ711-712- 716-741. |
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