Cape Lookout to Florence OR between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 35 To 45 Kt. Seas 7 To 13 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat...S To Sw Winds 35 To 45 Kt. Seas 11 To 19 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 12 To 17 Ft. Chance Of Rain With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sun...W To Sw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft. Chance Of Rain With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 9 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N To Ne Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue...S To Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 14 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Portland OR
237pm PST Fri Dec 8 2023
High pressure brings temporary dry conditions through tonight, but rain returns on Saturday with the next system set to impact the region through Sunday. Showers continue into next Monday, with a stretch of drier weather possible through mid week and perhaps longer.
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Transient upper level ridging yields partially clearing skies and diminishing shower activity across the area this afternoon as a trough departs into the Rockies. High pressure will hold on through tonight and allow temperatures to dip well into the 30s across much of the area Saturday morning. Would not be out of the question to see some areas of frost or patchy fog tonight as a result, but high clouds spreading in this evening ahead of the next system may work against the latter scenario.
Attention then quickly turns to the latest and final (for now) in a recent series of atmospheric rivers to impact the area as the next batch of warm frontal precipitation approaches the coast Saturday morning. The heaviest rain still mostly looks to remain confined north of a Portland to Tillamook line through early afternoon, slowly sagging south across the area through the afternoon and evening, with locations such as Eugene possible staying dry into Saturday evening. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a quick burst of heavy snow expected across the South Washington Cascades as precipitation moves in Saturday afternoon before snow levels rise above 7000 feet after midnight Sunday. Farther south, expect snow levels to rise quickly enough to limit significant winter weather impacts to the volcanic peaks in the Oregon Cascades as snow quickly transitions to rain at pass levels and below.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast values remain largely on track from previous forecast packages, keeping the heaviest rainfall amounts confined to northern coastal areas from roughly Lincoln County northward. Expect another 3 to 5 inches of rain and locally higher amounts in these areas Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon, with rainfall amounts diminishing with south and eastward extent. Will therefore likely see the biggest response on rivers draining the northern Coast Range and Willapa Hills peaking late Sunday, but guidance at this time is only showing a 15 to 30 percent for most of these rivers to reach minor flood stage. The only river currently forecast to reach flood stage is the Grays in Wahkiakum County, WA. Precipitation gradually diminishes as the weakening AR sags southward through the area Sunday evening, with showers lingering into Monday morning in the wake of a cold front. /CB
.Long TermMonday Through Friday
Majority of WPC clusters are in agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific NW. As such, showers coming to an end on Monday. Then, as high pressure builds over the inland Pac NW, will see dry but cool weather for Tuesday. Models differ a bit for middle of next week, with some favoring longer duration of the high pressure and subsequent dry weather (GFS (Global Forecast System) model), while others (ECMWF) favor a fast moving front with clouds and rain for Wed. Suspect the GFS will win out, but with uncertainty in the models trends, will keep some chance of precipitation for Wednesday and Thu. Again, could just as easily be dry with some offshore flow for Wednesday and Thu. Lets hope for the latter. /Rockey
High pressure will build across the waters Friday bringing weaker northwesterly winds with a westerly swell between 8-10 ft remaining. An upper level trough will send its attendant surface low towards the coast Friday night into Saturday bringing southerly winds back across the waters. Gale Force wind gusts ahead of the cold front starting around 7-10am Saturday and continuing through much of the day. Seas will likely build into the mid to upper teens within the persistent southwesterly flow.
High pressure will build across the waters early next week bringing more quiet weather into the forecast. Seas are expected to drop below 10 ft Sunday afternoon and remain below Advisory threshold through midweek. -Muessle/Muhlestein
NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10am Saturday to 4am PST Sunday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 2pm PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Warning from 2pm to 9pm PST Saturday for Columbia River Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 7am to 7pm PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 7am Saturday to 1am PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon OR to Cape Foulweather OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am PST Saturday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 10am Saturday to 4am PST Sunday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR out 10 NM- Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.