Cape Lookout to Florence OR between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...N Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...Variable Winds Less Than 5 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S To Sw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion ...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 947pm PST Sat Jan 25 2025 Updated Aviation... Synopsis High pressure remains anchored over the region bringing dry weather, clear skies, and cold overnight temperatures. A pattern change is on the horizon towards the latter part of next week as a low pressure system moves into the region. This system could bring widespread precipitation and mountain snow back to the Pacific NW, but there is still uncertainty as to the exact timing and amount of precipitation. Tonight through Saturday...Ensemble guidance continues to be in overall solid agreement with a ridge of high pressure remaining anchored over the Pacific NW and a a low pressure system moving from the Great Basin westward towards the Pacific Ocean. This is a classic Rex Blocking pattern and will result in clear skies, cool/cold temperatures and dry conditions. This blocking pattern looks to remain locked in through at least the middle of the week. This pattern is also resulting in a thermally induced surface trough that extends from northern California, across the Willamette Valley/Oregon Coast and continues towards the Olympic Peninsula. This is resulting in a -5 to -7 mb, PDX to DLS pressure gradient which means that persistent north to east winds are in the forecast through Wednesday. So, expect wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible through the Gorge and Cascades and up to 30 mph at Troutdale and into the Portland/Vancouver Metro through Sunday. Gusty north to east winds will persist into the start of the upcoming week, but the pressure gradient should relax slightly and that will reduce the strength of the gusty winds. Cold overnight and early morning temperatures will be the main impact tonight into tomorrow morning.Clear skies will result in radiative cooling and will bring overnight lows across the majority of the CWA (County Warning Area) towards the low 30s along the coast and into the low to upper 20s for inland locations and into the teens for the Cascades. The elevated winds will cause apparent or "feels-like" temperatures to be even colder, from 15-25 degrees F for the Coast Range, interior lowlands, and Cascade foothills. HREF indicates an 80-95% chance of apparent temperatures below 25 degrees F tonight into tomorrow morning for most of those areas, though probabilities are closer to 60% for areas in the Portland/Vancouver metro that will be impacted by east winds from the Gorge. Therefore, will maintain the current Cold Weather Advisory from 10pm tonight through 10am Sunday. Overnight temperatures the following few nigheights will be fairly similar if not just a few degrees higher, and with weaker winds,the wind chill component will be diminished. This will likely keep apparent temperatures just above the 25 degree threshold for a Cold Weather Advisory, though will continue to keep an eye on how this forecast changes. A pattern change is still expected as me move into the latter part of the upcoming week starting Wednesday/Thursday. Models are showing the Rex Block breaking down as the California low moves eastward along with an elongated trough originating in Alaska, helps to distort the ridge and move it further inland. This pattern shift will bring precipitation back into the forecast for the latter part of the upcoming week and into next weekend. However, a small amount of models are still maintaining a ridging pattern, which would mean that the cold and dry conditions will persist. Overall, am leaning into the wetter solutions at this time as most models have maintained a wetter solution over the past few model runs. Now, what people would like to know is: "Will this pattern change mean snow in the lowlands?" and the answer is maybe. As it stands right now there is around a 30% probability of the lowlands of seeing a rain/snow mix late Friday as the cold front brings 850 mb temperatures around -6 to -8 C which is the range of temps, under onshore flow that snow becomes more likely for the lowlands. We Will continue to monitor the situation as uncertainty remains high. /42-HEC Marine High pressure currently over the eastern Pacific will continue to shift eastward overhead in the coming days however a N-NNE pressure gradient at the surface will allow Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts to persist across the central and southern waters through tonight into Sunday. It now appears all waters should see wind gusts decrease to 10-15 kts by Sunday night after which point winds remain rather calm through at least the middle of next week. Seas around 4-7ft at 10-14 seconds through Sunday before bottoming out in the 3-5ft range Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Then Thursday into next weekend we'll need to keep an eye on the reemergence of a more active weather pattern, however, the jury it still out regarding the exact details and impacts during this time period. -Batz/Schuldt/JLiu NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...Cold Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am PST Sunday for ORZ104>118-123>125. WA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am PST Sunday for WAZ201>208. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4am PST Sunday for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm PST Sunday for PZZ272-273. |
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