Cape Lookout to Florence OR between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Slight Chance Of Drizzle. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Sw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 11 To 12 Ft. |
| Tue...Variable Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming S To Sw. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Sw 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W To Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 9 To 10 Ft. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 858pm PDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Aviation Discussion Updated... Synopsis Seasonably warm and dry through at least Sunday. A weak front will bring a chance of rain on Monday. Temperatures are expected to trend cooler through late next week as a series of frontal system brings higher chances for more widespread rain, as well as high elevation Cascade snow. .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday Night...An upper level low will continue to slide eastward across southern Oregon tonight as high pressure builds over the region. The shortwave upper ridge axis shifts east of the Cascades by Sunday evening as broad upper level troughing over the NE Pacific pushes toward the Pacific NW. This should lead to another pleasant day on Sunday with morning clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures running around 5 to 10 degrees above average. Will likely see marine stratus return to the coast tonight with low (15-25%) chances of spotty drizzle. A surface front will approach the coast later Monday morning, and is expected to weaken as it moves inland through Monday night. Still a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the system and total rainfall amounts, but in general model ensembles show high confidence (>90%) of less than 0.5 inch of rain along the coast and less than 0.25 inch across the interior lowlands. Afternoon highs will likely remain near to a few degrees above average. /DH Long Term Tuesday through Saturday...Wetter weather is expected through the extended forecast. Ensemble guidance shows multiple frontal systems are expected to move through the PacNW associated with a longwave trough and surface low pressure system originating in the Gulf of Alaska as it moves east into Canada through Thursday. Ensembles are coming into better agreement in the timing of the next frontal system moving through the PacNW Tuesday night into Wednesday, though there remains considerable uncertainty in the amount and timing of pre-frontal rain earlier on Tuesday. Either way, both the GFS (Global Forecast System) and Euro ensembles indicate some tropical moisture could be associated with this system as they both indicate IVT values around or greater than 250 kg/ms late Tuesday into Wednesday. This would bring a more robust round of widespread rain to NW Oregon and SW Washington than previous fronts. The 13z Saturday NBM run indicates a 50-70% chance of at least 1 inch of rain for inland valleys and a 75-90% chance for the coast and higher elevations from 5am Tuesday through 5am Thursday. For at least 2 inches of rain in the same time period, there's a 50-70% chance for the coast and higher elevations, though only a 5-20% chance for inland valleys. Temperatures will drop significantly Tuesday into Wednesday with this frontal passage as well, with daytime temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s for most locations except the 40s across the high Cascades by Wednesday. Another frontal system is expected to move through the region sometime on Thursday into Friday with additional precipitation possibly (40-70% chance) continuing into the weekend. Temperatures will continue dropping Wednesday night into Thursday with ensemble 850 mb temps likely falling to around 0 to 2 deg C, translating to morning low temperatures Thursday into the lower 30s over the high Cascades and remaining in the mid to upper 30s during the day Thursday. These colder temperatures are likely to bring the first significant snow of the season to the high Cascades with snow levels dropping to around 5000-5500 feet. Snow amounts over Cascade passes are not expected to be very high with a 50-60% chance of at least 1 inch of snow but only a 20-40% chance of at least 4 inches of snow. These probabilities have dropped since previous NBM runs as well, which could be attributed to uncertainties in timing of the frontal system and associated amounts of precipitation. Latest WPC cluster analysis shows about 65% of the ensembles indicate precipitation continuing into Saturday. Uncertainty still remains in the WPC clusters and ensemble members on specific timing and amounts of precipitation next week, so keep an eye out on future updates. DH/HEC Marine Seas begin to subside overnight and through Sunday. The next front will slowly drop southeastward towards the coast Sunday night into Monday. This will bring increasing southerly winds ahead of the front across the waters during this time. At this point, there is a 90% chance for at least brief Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts at some point Sunday night or Monday across the northern waters with probabilities of similar conditions reaching as far south as Florence Monday or Monday night dropping to 40-50%. In addition, a larger westerly swell of 11-13' with a dominant period of 14-15 seconds will spread across the waters on Monday. Another front appears likely to drop southeastward across the waters Tuesday night or Wednesday. This will bring another high probability (80-90%) for Small Craft Advisory level southerly wind gusts of 25-30 kt to the waters. The probability for Gale Force southerly wind gusts is generally around 25%, albeit closer to 50% within 10-20nm of the coast. Timing exactly when each round of these winds will impact the waters is why the official forecast is still lower than the probabilities might suggest it should be. .BEACH HAZARDS...A westerly swell of 11-13' with a dominant period of 14-15 seconds will push towards the coast on Monday. This will bring an elevated threat for sneaker waves along the coast on Monday. Extra caution should be used when recreating on area beaches and jetties. NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None |
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