Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Tonight...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 9 To 13 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 13 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. |
| Sat Night...N To Ne Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun...N Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 301am PST Thu Jan 23 2025 Synopsis Continued high pressure ridging over the region with cold overnight temperatures and clear skies. Frost forming in the lowlands this morning, especially within the Willamette Valley. A weak shortwave trough moves in Friday with slight chances of precipitation over the terrain in the north. High pressure returns until late next week. .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...If you're enjoying clear skies, crisp conditions and seeing that sun then you will like today. High pressure over the Pacific Northwest persists which is keeping conditions generally unchanging today. This morning, temperatures have been more variable due to easterly winds. In areas with gustier easterly winds, temperatures are much warmer due to the warmer air aloft mixing down to the surface. For example, in Troutdale winds are gusting up to 30 mph and it sits at 41 degrees F. But shifting a few miles to the west at Portland Intl Airport, it is 30 degrees F with no wind. Outside of the Gorge, temperatures are below freezing. Frost continues to be a possibility this morning as the lower atmosphere is fairly dry, skies are clear, and temperatures are nearing the wet bulb temperatures. Frost will accumulate on exposed surfaces so make sure to leave ample time to warm up those cars before hitting the road. Expecting a persistence forecast though winds will not be as breezy as Wednesday. This evening the ridge will begin to flatten as a shortwave trough pushes to the north. This shortwave has been all over the place over the last several days both in terms of timing and landfall location. Due to the intensity of the ridge, it is eroding the front associated with the shortwave and thus decreasing the probability for precipitation on Friday. Based on forecast soundings and area observations, the lower levels are so dry that precipitation has a higher chance of being focused at the higher elevations. Based on the NBM, the 24 hour probability of 0.01 inch or more is around 15% within southwest Washington, and near 30% along the Cascades along the volcanos. While precipitation may not necessarily fall, the front will usher in warmer air so overnight low temperatures will generally be above freezing in the lowlands. -Muessle Long Term Saturday through Wednesday As the front exits the area, high pressure builds once again. In this case though, colder air will filter into the Columbia River Basin as the disturbance tracks right over the area. 850 mb temperatures (around 5500 ft) will be as low as -6 degrees C. Easterly winds will bring that colder air west of the Cascades and cause temperatures to drop. This will be most notable overnight, but highs too may be a few degrees cooler than previous days. Cold air will pool in the lowlands on Sunday which will bring the coldest overnight temperatures in the morning. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees within the central and southern Willamette Valley and Lower I-5 corridor. Apparent ("feels like") temperatures will be fairly similar as winds will be light. On Monday, a weak trough will push southward in the flow aloft which will bring about a southerly wind reversal in the upper levels. Winds at the surface will become more squirly. Don't expect much of a change on Tuesday. Now Wednesday has the hint of a pattern shift. Based on ensemble models, there is increasing confidence in a change to a wet pattern. Now, the precipitation type is going to be the piece of the puzzle that we will have to sit on to see how this front changes overtime. Based on the long range models, there is a very low probability (less than 5%) of winter weather in the lowlands but we can't say it won't happen. Again, confidence is incredibly low and similar to the system arriving on Friday, it could easily be eroded by the ridge. Will continue to monitor closely. -Muessle Marine The ridge of high pressure overhead will begin to buckle today as an upper-level disturbance slowly pushes southward through British Columbia, eventually dropping into the region for Friday. This will lead to an increase in the N-NE winds as a result with high confidence(80%) in Small Craft Advisory conditions being met across the outer waters late this morning through Friday. Latest guidance has trended slightly higher for wind gusts along the inner waters south of Cape Falcon as well, and although gusts will be more marginal near 20-24 knots, have decided to issue an additional Small Craft Advisory for these zones too beginning this afternoon. During this period seas around 4-6 ft build to towards 8-10 ft at 13-14 seconds on Friday with the highest seas expected in the outer waters. Seas ease back into the 4-7 ft range for the weekend as the ridge of high pressure strengthens again although breezy N-NE winds persist at least into Saturday for the outer waters - highest southern outer waters. Overall it appears the rather benign weather pattern will stick around through Tuesday of next week. -Schuldt NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am PST this morning for ORZ104>118-123>125. WA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am PST this morning for WAZ203>208. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 4am PST Friday for PZZ252-253. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 4pm PST Friday for PZZ271. Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 4pm PST Friday for PZZ272-273. |
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