Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...W To Sw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. |
| Sun...S To Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1043am PDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Updated aviation discussion. Synopsis A transient ridge today will keep conditions seasonable and generally dry. A deeper trough and associated low pressure system shifts southward into the region Friday to Saturday increasing onshore flow and returning more widespread chances for precipitation. Slight chances for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoon. Drier weather returns Sunday before another trough returns chances for precipitation early next week. .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover over the region with most areas sitting under overcast skies. These clouds have kept overnight temperatures on the warm side with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s for many locations as of 3 AM. Through the day today though those clouds will thin as a transient ridge moves over the region. Will see little in the way of sensible weather as temperatures remain seasonable and flow is zonal. Especially in the afternoon and early evening, there will be a contrast between a surface high over the northern Rockies and an incoming trough over the Pacific. Based on models, could see breezy westerly winds near sunset but will generally be within east- west aligned terrain like the lower I-5 corridor, Coast Range gaps, and the Columbia River Gorge. Gusts as high as 20 mph are possible with a 10% chance of gusts up to 25 mph. The overall forecast on Friday and through the weekend has remained unchanged and models are in good agreement in the synoptic pattern. A low aloft continues to be the dominate feature as it drops down near Vancouver Island by Friday afternoon. As this upper trough moves in, it will push a weak front into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. This will return more widespread chances for precipitation, with the highest chances over southwest Washington and the north Oregon coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. Given the showery nature of this system, rainfall amounts will vary across the area and the highest amounts will ultimately depend on where showers set-up. Overall, showers will be non-impactful. Given the northern track of this trough, chances for precipitation are highest as you go further north. In addition, there is a 10-15% chance for thunderstorms across these areas as instability increases due to cold air aloft, a slight southwesterly flow, along with sufficient lift from the trough. Any passing thunderstorms could produce lightning, brief heavy rain, erratic winds, and/or small hail. Onshore flow will also increase as this upper trough moves in. West-southwesterly winds won't be too impactful across most areas with gusts up to 20 mph along the I-5 corridor, however, typical breezy spots during onshore flow like the central Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley could gust up to 35-40 mph. The 90th percentile winds on Friday evening are around 20-25 mph within the east-west aligned terrain, and around 30 mph along the higher elevations of the Cascades. If the low shifts any further north though these winds will be less impactful. Transitioning into Saturday the low will shift slightly more southward (think of a reverse 'J' shape) which will enhance precipitation once again. At this time there remains ample convective potential for thunderstorms again in the afternoon and periods of rain. Most of the rain remains concentrated to the north. -27/10 Long Term Sunday through Wednesday...For those with Sunday plans, there will be a brief drier period as a shortwave ridge passes over the Pacific Northwest. 500 mb ensembles are falling into better agreement with another longwave trough moving over the area. Uncertainty remains in the exact track as it's quite messy with deterministic surface plots showing a number of small mesoscale lows embedded within the trough. However, this system will encourage overall more moist and cool air to move into the area. Therefore will maintain a trend of below normal high temperatures. When observing the 24-hr precipitation differences between the ensembles, around half of the solutions are trending drier than the composite ensemble and the other half wetter. This only emphasizes the level of uncertainty. Ultimately it will once again come down to the track of the system. When looking at individual ensemble members, there is consensus though that rain will start at some point on Monday but how much rain is undetermined. Tuesday into Wednesday is a bit of a blur as the two days run seamlessly into one another. Post frontal rain showers expected with breezy westerly winds once again possible. One thing to consider is that some of the models are suggesting that the low will move almost directly over the forecast area. If this occurs, the jet stream will dip just to the south and we will be in a very dynamic pattern. In fact, there are a few of the model runs that suggest that we could see greater than 1 inch of rain on Tuesday into Wednesday. Again though, uncertainty is incredibly high and the larger trend is towards non-impactful accumulations. -27 Marine Looking at fairly benign conditions over the next several days despite a series of frontal systems moving through. Westerly flow will continue through Saturday. Seas are expected to remain around 5 to 6 ft as a westerly swell persists. Seas then build to 6-8 ft at 11 to 12 seconds late tonight into Friday morning as a weak frontal boundary approaches the water. This front will also bring increasing westerly winds with gusts up to 20 kt. There is less than a 5% chance of wind gusts of 25 kt or greater. A secondary front arrives on Saturday, bringing a shift to northwest winds. However, wind speeds are not expected to increase much with this frontal passage. There is less than a 15% chance of Small Craft Advisory winds. The time period with highest wind speeds will likely occur on Monday as stronger system moves over the waters, bringing south winds up to 20-25 kt and seas approaching 9-10 ft. -27/23 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. |
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