Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Lookout OR between 150 and 250 NM Offshore Forecast
| Tonight...Se Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Fri...Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming E To Se 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming S To Se 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft. Rain. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W To Nw 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 15 Ft. |
| Sat Night...W To Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 11 To 16 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 10 To 15 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 11 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N To Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 12 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 11 To 13 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 307pm PST Thu Jan 1 2026 Synopsis A warm-frontal boundary today has ushered in a period of wetter and active conditions slated to persist through the weekend and beyond. While weather related impacts the next several days appear limited due in part to higher snow levels, cold air trapped near the surface in the central Columbia River Gorge and Hood River Valley will continue to support localized pockets of freezing rain. Expect a transition back to a WNW flow pattern by the middle of next week with snow-levels falling below the mountain passes. .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...This afternoon composite radar imagery depicts a broad swath of stratiform precipitation across the region thanks to a warm-frontal progressing into the region. Given the larger closed low feature to our southwest helping to steer the aforementioned warm front overhead, an offshore pressure gradient continues to linger with gusts of 40-50 mph still being recorded through the windier sections of the western Columbia River Gorge. Headed through tonight and Friday the offshore gradient slowly weakens but likely won't go away completely. While not particularly impactful for most of the region beyond the aforementioned winds, it will help to keep the near to below freezing temperatures in place throughout the central Columbia River Gorge and Hood River Valley. There are a few spots, mainly right along the river, which have risen into the 33-35 degree range as of 1400-1500 this afternoon, however, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and several high resolution models do favor temperatures trending a maybe degree or two lower once we get past sunset before leveling off overnight. So the freezing rain threat certainly isn't over, especially for the upper Hood River Valley and smaller drainages immediately adjacent to the central Gorge that are more protected from moderation. The latest HREF continues to favor storm total ice accumulations in the 0.1-0.25 inch range for much of the upper Hood River Valley with locally higher accumulations of 0.3-0.4 inch around SR281 near Parkdale. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Gorge zones and Upper Hood River Valley continues through 10AM Friday - greatest impacts for latter area. At least the rapid decrease in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast by the midday hours Friday and gradually rising temperatures will help to mitigate additional impacts for Friday afternoon. After a widespread decrease in precipitatiion late Friday through Friday night, our attention turns to the closed low off the coast of southern Oregon as it transitions into an open wave feature and then slingshots towards western Oregon and Washington Saturday evening/night. Beyond another round of increasing rainfall we'll need to keep an eye on the potential for a period of breezy to windy conditions. Based on the current track of this feature, the coast is the most likely to see south to southwest wind impacts with the raw EPS projecting a 30-40% chance for gusts to exceed 58mph - lower probabilities (5-15%) for the same magnitude of gusts when exploring the NBM. Depending on the exact track of this feature the I-5 corridor could experience breezy conditions as well with a few concerning (albeit largely outlier) scenarios portrayed by the 12z UW-WRF and 18z NAMNEST taking the low far enough near the coast to spread strong winds inland. While Saturday night will certainly be a period to watch, and the winds/gusts in the forecast were nudged towards the EPS mean solution, for now winds appear to remain below our thresholds for headlines. It's also worth quickly noting renewed offshore flow across the Cascades Saturday night has the potential (50-60%) to bring a quick burst of light freezing rain to the upper Hood River Valley yet again, although these impacts will largely hinge on how temperatures progresses on Friday. -99 Long Term Sunday through Wednesday...The latter half of the weekend into next week the specifics of the weather pattern become more uncertain. Overall, ensemble guidance is pointing towards a fairly typical winter-time pattern for the PacNW continuing into Monday with snow levels gradually lowering back towards pass-level - skiers/snowboarders rejoice. By the middle of next week there is decent consensus for us to quickly migrate into a progressive NW-WNW upper-level flow pattern once the larger trough feature previously to our west kicks into the Rockies by Tuesday. However, variations still exist regarding the exact amplification and longitudinal placement of trough features within this flow regime through the end of the week. At the very least we can be confident in more prevalent Cascade snowfall with each passing system and near normal temperatures for this time of year. -99/42 Marine Southeast winds around 10 kt or less continues as a weak low pressure system off the northern California coast lifts northward. The incoming system will bring isolated, but not widespread, small craft advisory winds. High resolution models suggest around a 30-40% chance of Gusts up to 30 kt within PZZ253-273, but others have less than a 20% chance. While not widespread, still something to take note of. Minimal change in the forecast for Friday. Transitioning into Saturday, another low pressure system will move in bringing yet another shift to the forecast. This low will amplify the southerly winds and introduce a southerly fresh swell. With heigheights of 13-15 ft at 14 seconds, the southerly swell will become dominate and, when combined with the southerly wind wave, could see wave heigheights around 17 ft. Maximum wave heigheights will occur late Saturday into Sunday morning where there is a 10% chance of heigheights as high as 19 ft in the outer waters. Confidence is low though as the low pressure system has been wavering in it's location, and have very little agreement in an overall track. If the low tracks right along the coast then winds will be higher than if it moves inland or further into the Pacific. Because of the uncertainty, have maintained the Gale Watch as there is around a 50% chance of gusts greater than 34 kt. If Gales do not manifest, there is high confidence in hazardous seas on Saturday through early Monday morning. -27 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST Friday for ORZ121-122. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10am PST Friday for WAZ210. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5pm PST this afternoon for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 7am PST Saturday for PZZ210- 251>253. Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for PZZ251>253-271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Friday to 7am PST Saturday for PZZ271>273. |
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