Marine Weather Net

Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

WNW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

WNW
WINDS < 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
PZZ840 Forecast Issued: 827 AM PDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Today...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Sun...W To Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sun Night...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Mon...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Mon Night...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming Variable. Seas 3 To 6 Ft.
Tue...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Tue Night...W To Nw Winds Less Than 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Wed...W Winds Less Than 10 Kt, Becoming W To Nw. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
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132 PM PDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Synopsis for the far southern California coast - PZZ700
At 1 PM, a 1029 mb high was about 1,235 miles west of Point Conception and a 1009 mb low was over southern Nevada. Weak to moderate onshore flow will prevail through Wednesday with a weak coastal eddy at times. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
158pm PDT Sat July 24 2021

Synopsis
High level cloudiness will continue to thicken from the east associated with an upper level low positioned over Arizona. This feature will move across northern Baja California on Sunday, then off the coast Sunday night through Monday. While moisture will be on the increase, thick cloud cover will limit instability. Thus, only isolated showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, are forecast through Sunday afternoon. A slightly better chance of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, is expected Sunday evening through Monday afternoon along with a low risk of flash flooding in the mountains and deserts. The cloudiness will keep it cooler through Monday, before warming occurs through mid week. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the mountains each day next week as monsoonal flow continues, though moisture will be less before increasing again late next week.

FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... -Forecast Highlights-

* Thickening clouds with only isolated showers through Sunday * Showers become more likely Sunday night-Monday * Slight chance of thunderstorms with a low flash flood risk

Thickening mid/high level cloudiness continues this afternoon ahead of a closed low positioned over Arizona. This feature will move slowly west-southwest to over northern Baja California by Sunday afternoon then off the coast Monday.

Moisture is high around this upper low and will be on the increase through Sunday night with PW increasing into the 1.5-1.75 inch range, highest over the deserts. However, despite this moisture increase, the thick cloud deck will limit instability significantly with MUCAPE barely into the 100 J/KG range over the mountains and deserts Sunday-Monday. Also, the low to mid level wind fields will increase out of the east through Monday morning, before becoming southwest. This will lead to less convergence occurring over the mountains with cells on the move as well, thus limiting rainfall amounts.

The best chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, will be Sunday evening through Monday when the trough axis moves across Southern California, providing the best convergence and lift.

Hi-resolution models of the WRF, HRRR, and HREF are not bullish on rainfall. This downward trend in rainfall amounts has continued since last night. So now we are forecasting 0.10-0.25" over the mountains with isolated amounts up to 1.00". Deserts 0.05-0.25". Less than 0.10" west of the mountains.

Despite the limiting factors for more robust convection and rainfall amounts, atmospheric moisture will be high, so there is a low risk of flash flooding, particularly from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

The trough will lift northwest away from the region on Tuesday. However, monsoonal flow never really shuts off with southeast flow continuing. Moisture will decrease but PW will remain at or above 1 inch, which is sufficient for a few showers or thunderstorms to develop each day next week over the mountains. The risk of showers and thunderstorms could expand into the deserts by late next week as monsoonal moisture increases again.

Highs through Monday will be cooler than normal, especially over the deserts before increasing through the middle part of next week. However, lows will continue rather warm and on the muggy side given the monsoonal moisture present.

Hydrology
There is a low flash flood risk Sunday evening through Monday afternoon when showers will be on the increase, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. However, a solid cloud deck will limit instability and rather fast low/mid level wind flow will keep showers and any thunderstorms that develop on the move. This will limit rainfall amounts. Only a few showers, and an outside risk of a thunderstorm, is expected tonight-Sunday afternoon.

Rainfall amounts have been lowered. Total rainfall through Monday is forecast to be 0.10-0.25" with isolated amounts to 1.00" in the mountains, 0.05-0.25" across the deserts, and less than 0.10" west of the mountains.

Moisture will decrease by Tuesday, but enough moisture is expected to be present each day next week to result in the potential of a few showers or thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon and possibly including the deserts by late next week as moisture increases again.

.SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE.