Santa Cruz Island to San Clemente Island CA between 60 and 150 NM Offshore Forecast
| Today...S Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming S To Sw 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 11 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Tonight...W Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W To Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft. |
| Wed...W To Nw Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 11 To 19 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 10 To 17 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 16 Ft. |
| Thu Night...W To Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 9 To 15 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 12 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W To Nw Winds 5 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 10 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 949pm PST Sunday Feb 15 2026 Synopsis Periods of rain, wind, and mountain snow are expected Monday through Thursday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Low elevation snow is possible Wednesday evening into Thursday potentially as low as 3500 ft Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Periods of rain/snow and elevated winds continue into Thursday. Chances of precipitation decrease Friday into the weekend. For Extreme Southwestern California Including Orange... San Diego...Western Riverside and Southwestern San Bernardino Counties Update: The latest model data reflects that the first initial showers ahead of the frontal boundary associated with the first system moving across the region tomorrow should begin over the inner waters of the SoCal bight by around 10 AM, or possibly earlier, and begin to move up over the northwestern areas of Orange County shortly before Noon tomorrow. This line of showers (and possibly even a few embedded thunderstorms), will move over the IE between 12-2 PM, and then eventually will track over San Diego County by around 2 to 5pm during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Between these hours, this will likely be when the heaviest rainfall occurs, which may possibly produce rainfall rates up to 0.8 inches per hour for some of the southern facing slopes of the San Bernardino Range. This may possibly need flash flooding concerns for the burn scar areas, and these will be closely monitored. After this first initial push of heavy precipitation moves through, showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, will become more intermittent by later Monday night and into Tuesday, before the next wave moves through with even colder temperatures and reinforce the chance of additional precipitation across the region. Snow levels will begin around 6500-7000 ft across the San Bernardino Mountains, tapering upwards towards 7500-8000 ft ahead of the cold front. After passage, the snow level will drop down to around 5500- 6500 ft going into Monday night, and then even further down to 4500- 5500 ft by Tuesday night. Snowfall amounts for some of the highest peaks located within the San Bernardino Mountains could approach up to 3 ft locally. At lower elevations, there could also be flooding concerns near the Lytle Creek area. Once snow levels drop enough to received snow in the Big Bear Lake recreational area, there could be amounts upwards of 12 to 18 inches of snow possible at the base of the ski resorts, and possibly more than 2 ft at the summits of both Summit and Bear Mountain. For the mountains of Riverside and San Diego counties, there could be similar amounts of possibly more than 2 ft of snow at San Jacinto through Tuesday, and amounts possibly of 3 to 6 inches for Mt Laguna. It will also become quite windy for some locations, with gusts approaching 70 mph through San Gorgonio Pass, and other gusts of greater than 60 mph for some of the high terrain and locations prone to strong winds, and also within some of the lower desert communities, where there can also be blowing dust as a result. Please see the latest Winter Storm Warnings and Wind Advisories for more information. Previous discussion submitted at 430 PM: Key Points: *A winter storm will bring widespread heavy snow to the mountains above 6000 ft creating hazardous travel conditions Monday through Thursday. Snow levels as low as 3500 to 4000 ft Wednesday night may result in light accumulations through the Cajon Pass and along I-8. *Gusty south to west winds are expected Monday from the coast to the deserts. Stronger and potentially damaging west winds along the mountain crests and adjacent desert slopes Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. *Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected below the snow level. Ponding of water on roads and minor street flooding in urban areas possible. Increased flows on rivers, especially the San Diego, Santa Margarita, and Whitewater Rivers. A winter storm will bring rounds of rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds to the area through Thursday. An upper level low pressure currently off the coast of Northern California will dig south and east Monday, pulling moisture from a weak atmospheric river into Southern California. This will bring widespread moderate to locally heavy rain and mountain snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Isolated showers could continue into mid-Tuesday morning, most likely in the mountains, with dry conditions possible elsewhere. A robust shortwave will move through the main troughing pattern Tuesday night into Wednesday, sparking another round of widespread rain and mountain snow. There still remains uncertainty in overall precipitation totals for Tuesday night into Wednesday but most ensemble guidance is indicating less precipitation for lower elevations than the first round. A third shortwave is then expected to move east across the area Thursday into early Friday, which could again spark additional rounds of widespread precipitation. There remains some uncertainty in how far south that final shortwave will dig, but there are indications additional rounds of at least light precipitation are possible. Details surrounding expected rain and snowfall can be found in the Hydrology section below. In addition to rain and mountain snow with each shortwave passage, gusty onshore winds can be expected. Onshore flow has already begun to increase this afternoon, with some elevated southerly winds gusting near 30 mph in the San Bernardino mountains. Peak gusts this afternoon into Monday morning will be around 35 mph. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning ahead of the main cold front. The strongest winds are expected to occur with and the few hours after the passage of the cold front. The front will move from northwest to southeast across the area starting in Orange County/Inland Empire early Monday afternoon, reaching San Diego county by late Monday afternoon. For the coast, widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected, with some local gusts up to 45 mph possible with the frontal passage. For the deserts, gusts 40 to 55 mph expected. The mountains and desert mountain slopes are expected to see gusts 55 to up to 65 mph. Gusty winds could result in hazardous travel conditions, particularly for high profile vehicles; falling tree limbs; or uproot shallow rooted trees. Winds will weaken briefly early Tuesday morning before increasing again for the mountains and deserts ahead of the second shortwave. Strengthening gradients will generate strong west winds across the mountain crests and desert slopes, where gusts could exceed 70 mph. While most of these stronger winds will be over remote locations, there is the potential for damaging winds near far southern Lucerne Valley near the foothills of the San Bernardino mountains. These strong winds continue into Wednesday. A third round of increased winds are possible for Thursday, with lower confidence in timing and speeds. Precipitation chances lower to around 10% for Friday as most ensembles have the final shortwave off to the east by then. High temperatures will be well below normal through the week, as much as 10-15 degrees below on Wednesday. Slow warming is expected Friday through the upcoming weekend. Marine An incoming storm will generate strong winds with high and choppy seas beginning Monday, weakening a bit on Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday, prevailing into Thursday night. Seas expected to be around 8-12 feet with wind gusts 25-35 knots, with briefly higher to 40 knots. A Gale Warning is in effect from 7am Monday through 7 AM Tuesday and contains more information. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms over the waters Monday afternoon/evening. Beaches Increasing westerly swell (9-11 feet with an average period of about 10-12 seconds) will produce large breaking waves up to 8-12 feet on most beaches across Orange and San Diego Counties from Monday afternoon through Friday morning. Widespread, strong rip currents are also likely with these waves and dangerous swimming conditions expected. A High Surf Advisory is in effect and contains more information. Skywarn Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. NOAA San Diego CA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CA...Wind Advisory from 7am to 8pm PST Monday for Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. High Surf Advisory from 10am Monday to 4am PST Thursday for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Winter Storm Warning from 10am Monday to 9am PST Thursday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains. Wind Advisory from 10am Monday to 1am PST Tuesday for San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. Wind Advisory from 6am to 10pm PST Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys. PZ...Gale Warning from 7am Monday to 7am PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. |
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