Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Early. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast. A Chance Of Rain Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Rain Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast And Diminishing To Less Than 10 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 217am EDT Fri April 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes for this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today, but additional flooding is not expected. 2) Windy today. 3) A round of showers with embedded thunderstorms with the potenial for heavy rain and severe weather Saturday through Sunday morning. KEY MESSAGE 1...Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today, but additional flooding is not expected. A warm front will lift across the region this morning with a weak cold front pushing through this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with both features today. Marginal instability will limit the threat of severe weather. Any addtional flooding concerns unlikely with basin average rainfall amounts generally under a quarter inch. KEY MESSAGE 2...Windy today. A strong low level jet of 55 to 65 knots will be overhead this morning. Stable temperature profiles will prevent the strongest winds aloft from mixing to the surface, but south/southeast winds may gust to 40-50 mph across the higher terrain and favored downslope areas this morning. The strongest gusts will be along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county and within the Black River Valley east of Lake Ontario. The low level jet will weaken today, but better mixing will develop by mid day and this afternoon. This will allow for a period of stronger southwesterly gusts to 40-45 mph downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3...A round of showers with embedded thunderstorms with the potenial for heavy rain and severe weather Saturday through Sunday morning. A cold front will move into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday. Ahead of the cold front the region will be within the warm sector. Some cloud cover may exist early in the day, but a gradual increase in low level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will support weak diurnal instability. Favorable shear profiles will support the risk for severe thunderstorms, with the main threat being damaging winds and isolated hail. Precipitable water values near 1.25 inches will support the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Marine The passage of a warm front will bring elevated southerly winds early this morning, maintaining SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Elevated southwesterlies will follow from mid morning through this afternoon, continuing the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. The next period of concern will be Saturday night into Monday, as a cold front ushers in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time period. Hydrology Several creeks and rivers remain in flood, including the Tonawanda Creek, Black Creek at Churchville, and the Black River. These slower responding waterways will remain in flood through today or into tonight. The Oatka Creek at Garbutt dropped below flood stage Thursday evening. Low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts will bring additional moderate to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms Saturday, and especially Saturday night. There will be a low risk for additional flooding due to our still nearly-saturated ground conditions. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 8am this morning to 5pm EDT this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ044-045. |
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