Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Tonight...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely Early, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Evening. Showers Likely After Midnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday...South Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms During The Day, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Thursday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Showers Likely During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Friday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 224pm EDT Sunday August 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rainfall amounts increased near the Lake Erie shoreline through this evening. Northwest winds increased Monday, most notably southeast of Lake Ontario where gusts up to 28 mph are possible along the lakeshore. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with scattered instances of flash flooding possible. 2) Unsettled weather moves back into the region Wednesday through the end of the week. Key Message 1...Additional heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight, with scattered instances of flash flooding possible. GOES satellite imagery shows a deep trough with a closed low across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. A deep southerly flow with a plume of Gulf moisture resides across the forecast area today. Surface analysis shows a wavy cold front from Lake Erie to the Saint Lawrence River which continues to be the focus for heavy showers and thunderstorms. Large scale ascent will aid diurnally driven convection within a corridor of high moisture content and deep (>11kft) warm cloud depths. Surface based instability of 1000-1500 J/kg and southerly winds parallel to the front will support backbuilding/training storms as well as repeated rounds of storms. Further destabilization and weak helicity across western NY will support a few severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and a possible tornado. A low pressure wave is expected to move along the frontal boundary across the forecast area tonight, while remaining ahead of the mid level trough axis. The core of the highest PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will shift east tonight. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region with localized areas of heavy rainfall from the Genesee Valley to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Latest guidance continues to suggest the axis of heaviest rain is across far western New York to the Saint Lawrence River. Basin average rainfall amounts will range from 1-2" near this axis to 0.5- 1" farther east. Localized higher amounts of 3+ inches are possible. Efficient rainfall rates and repeated rounds of showers/storms from the slow moving system could result in localized flash flooding through tonight, especially for urban areas and poor drainage areas. A Flood Watch is in effect through 2am tonight/Monday. Conditions will improve from west to east on Monday. The surface low is expected to deepen as a shortwave trough drops south from Canada Monday. There remains uncertainty as to how fast showers move out of the forecast area. Kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Lake Ontario region through Monday afternoon, although some models suggest it could dry out faster. High pressure builds across the region Monday night through Tuesday night resulting in dry weather. Northwest winds are expected Monday with gusts up to 28 mph along the southeast Lake Ontario shoreline. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather moves back into the region Wednesday through the end of the week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms return to the region Wednesday through Friday. An upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains/Great Lakes region and a return flow will bring moisture northward. The synoptic pattern suggests deep southwesterly flow will persist during this time. While confidence is low regarding timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms, chances are higher in the afternoon to evening. Marine A wavy cold front will slowly ease its way across Lakes Erie and Ontario through Monday. A generally light to modest south to southeasterly flow out ahead of the front will give way to a northerly flow behind the front. A northwest wind will increase on Lake Ontario and a brief period of small craft conditions are possible Monday. Sub-small craft conditions are expected on Lake Erie Monday. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight and torrential rain and locally higher waves and winds. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Flood Watch until 2am EDT Monday for NYZ001>008-010>014- 019>021-085. Marine None. |
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