Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tonight...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248pm EDT Wednesday September 27 2023
High pressure over Quebec will remain ridged across New York State and New England through Thursday, before a weak upper low slides just south of our area Thursday night and Friday bringing a few scattered showers to areas south of Lake Ontario. High pressure then re-establishes itself across the region bringing another stretch of dry weather through at least the first part of next week. Temperatures will be near normal through Thursday, before day to day warming pushes readings well above average for this weekend into early next week.
Near Term - Through Friday
High pressure over Quebec continues to dominate the weather over the region this afternoon. A bit breezy with east winds gusting over 20 mph near the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline west of Rochester. Temperatures most areas reside in the mid to upper 60s to even some lower 70s over parts of the Niagara Frontier. It is also quite dry as RH values are as low as 17-20 pct over parts of the western Niagara Frontier.
Weak upper low near Chicago drifts slowly east across southern Michigan tonight, while strong high pressure remains ridged across our area which will keep dry weather intact. Weak warm air advection will move through aloft overnight producing intervals of mid and high clouds across western NY. Lows tonight will fall back into the low and mid 40s and could even drop into the upper 30s inland east of Lake Ontario. It does not appear to get as chilly as last night though.
High pressure starts to weaken Thursday as it moves into New England. The weather over western NY will become increasingly under the influence of the approaching upper low. Most locations should stay dry though isolated showers could work into far western NY on eastern fringe of the upper low, similar to what is occurring today over parts of Ohio. THe high will keep elsewhere dry on Thursday. A more southeasterly flow will result in highs mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s (perhaps mid 70s toward the St. Lawrence valley), with mid 60s higher terrain.
Greatest chances for some showers arrive Thursday night as the upper low drifts to our south and weak warm, moist advection supports expansion of showers into much of our area, especially south of Lake Ontario. Strongest Q-vector convergence and jet support remains well to south, but at the least weak lift and sufficient deep moisture will support scattered showers into Friday. Even when showers taper on Friday, there will be an abundance of low clouds lingering between the exiting system and high pressure persisting to the northeast of the area.
Short Term - Friday Night
An amplifying ridge stretching from the Lower Mississippi valley to the Upper Great Lakes will then offer at least partial clearing Friday night with no chance for any pcpn. Friday evening football games should go off without a hitch.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
...A LONG stretch of stupendous weather will arrive this weekend and last into next week... The only fly in the ointment might come in the form of a weakening front as it runs into the 1025mb surface ridge over the region by Sunday. This feature may introduce some mid-high clouds but is looking rather moisture starved. Otherwise...as was mentioned before ridging aloft and at the surface will 'guarantee' that the lower Great Lakes will remain precipitation free for the foreseeable future. That is...this entire period which goes through Wednesday. Not only will it be precipitation free...a day to day warming trend is expected through Tuesday that will translate into mercury readings topping out in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s.
These values will be a SOLID 10F-15F degrees above normal. Due to the continued dry antecedent conditions...have continued to aim above most guidance packages with this update. In fact...have added a degree or two to most locales for max temps...especially along the lake plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.
By the end of this period (Wednesday) there is some indication that the upper ridge may weaken (flatten) but not enough to introduce any precipitation. Again continued dry and above normal temperatures will persist across the region.
Easterly winds have increased this afternoon and it has become quite choppy across the western part of Lake Ontario resulting in the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore zone from Niagara River to Hamlin Beach through this evening. After winds diminish later tonight, expect similar conditions across western Lake Ontario again Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, winds and waves across the waters will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ042.