Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late This Evening. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 30 Knots Overnight. Showers In The Evening, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West. Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...West Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Waves 6 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. A Chance Of Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 724pm EDT Tuesday Jun 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased wind gusts across the region Wednesday night through Friday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm possible at times through Wednesday, but dry most of the time. 2) A strong area of low pressure will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms and windy conditions Wednesday night through Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1...A few scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm possible at times through Wednesday, but dry most of the time. This afternoon, modest surface based instability and steep low/mid level lapse rates from cool air aloft and diurnal heating will continue to support an agitated cumulus field inland from the lakes. The best chance of a few showers and isolated thunder will be found across southern Ontario in closer proximity to height falls and weak DPVA across the central Great Lakes. A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon from the Finger Lakes to southern Tug Hill region, but the vast majority of the area will stay dry. Tonight, a mid level shortwave will cross Lake Erie and southwest Ontario overnight, with increasing large scale ascent and moisture transport into the region. The evening hours will be dry, then rain chances will increase after midnight across Western NY as improved moisture and forcing arrive ahead of the approaching shortwave. There could be just enough instability left to support an isolated thunderstorm. Wednesday, the mid level shortwave over Western NY in the morning will continue to move east and reach the eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Forcing and moisture convergence ahead of the trough will continue to support a few scattered showers moving from west to east across the area in the morning. The shortwave will begin to encounter diurnal instability east of Lake Ontario by midday to early afternoon, where better coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will be found in the afternoon. Farther west, a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop along the southeast edge of enhanced flow off Lake Erie from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes in the afternoon. An expanding stable lake shadow should keep the Niagara Frontier dry during the afternoon hours. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong area of low pressure will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms and windy conditions Wednesday night through Thursday. A shortwave trough is expected to become negatively tilted as it moves across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night. An area of low pressure will deepen to around 987mb north of Lake Ontario. This anomalously strong low for mid-June is expected to bring the potential for multiple hazards to the eastern Great Lakes region. Precipitation... A 60-70 knot low level jet will spread across western and north- central NY Wednesday night. Deep southerly flow and expected PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of over 1.5 inches (80th percentile for mid-June) will move into the region and strong large scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will result in numerous to widespread showers across the region Wednesday night. Forecast soundings show elevated instability on the front side of the precipitation which may support a few non-severe thunderstorms overnight. The surface low will move into southern Quebec Thursday and a cold front will move across the forecast area. There still remains uncertainty in the evolution of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front as well as the coverage of post- frontal showers, however coverage will diminish with dry time across western NY Thursday. The advancing front, weak instability and a very strong wind field may support strong storms across the Finger Lakes region to eastern Lake Ontario region. Storm Prediction Center Day 3 outlook has this area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1) of severe weather. Rainfall amounts will range across the region with basin averages of 0.25-0.75 inches Wednesday night through Thursday. The higher end amounts are expected across far western NY, southern side of the Tug Hill and Saint Lawrence Valley. Downsloping from a southerly flow will lead to lower rainfall amounts across the Finger Lakes region. Higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. Winds... The track of the strong low is favorable for strong winds across the forecast area, especially northeast of the Lakes. The strong non- thunderstorm winds are expected to come in two rounds, pre-frontal southerly winds Wednesday night and post-frontal southwesterly winds Thursday. Gusty winds will continue Thursday night through Friday, however the strongest winds are expected to occur at times Wednesday night through Thursday. The strong 60-70kt low-level jet and increasing pressure gradient will support increasing southerly surface winds with expected wind gusts up to 40 mph across a majority of the region Wednesday night. Localized areas of wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible across downslope areas such as the Chautauqua Ridge and southern slopes of the Finger Lakes region Wednesday night, and the northern Tug Hill region late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Rain and a weaker inversion is lowers confidence in strong winds reaching the ground in favorable downslope regions. The core of the strongest winds will move east as the flow begins to turn southwesterly across the region. Well-aligned southwesterly flow along Lake Erie with pressure rises behind the passing low are expected to support wind gusts in excess of 45mph, with increasing confidence of wind gusts as high as 55 mph northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The core of the strongest winds will move east of the area later Thursday and winds will slowly diminish through Thursday night. The forecast wind speeds are more common in the cool season which may result in a greater amount of wind damage due to fully leafed out trees. Confidence is increasing that wind headlines will be needed. Marine Southwest winds will continue to produce a light to moderate chop at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Wednesday evening, but winds and waves will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. An unseasonably deep surface low will then track from lower Michigan and Lake Huron late Wednesday night and Thursday morning to southern Quebec by Thursday evening. The track and intensity of this system would be commonplace in late fall or winter, but rare for June. A strong wind field associated with the system will bring a period of strong winds to the lower Great Lakes, first with strong southerlies late Wednesday night and Thursday morning and then west-southwest winds behind the associated cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds and waves will be high end Small Craft Advisory criteria at a minimum, with gale force winds or frequent gusts a possibility. Tides / Coastal Flooding An unseasonably strong low pressure system will move from the central Great Lakes late Wednesday night to southern Quebec by Thursday evening, on a classic track to produce strong winds across the eastern Great Lakes. The combination of above average lake levels, strong west- southwest winds, and significant wave action may bring an increased risk of lake shore flooding at the east end of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Forecast winds and waves are currently near the low end of the established threshold for lakeshore flooding. Flooding is most probable in low lying shoreline areas from northern Oswego County into Jefferson County. Water levels may also rise along the Saint Lawrence River in the Thousand Islands region as strong southwest winds force an increased flow of water down the river. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
Buffalo NY Radar
Northeast Radar