Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...East Winds Less Than 10 Knots Increasing To 5 To 15 Knots. Mainly Clear Late This Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...East Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Mostly Cloudy In The Evening, Then Clearing. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South Less Than 10 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet, Then Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 740pm EDT Thu April 24 2025 Synopsis It will be warm throughout the region this afternoon...especially over the western counties where highs of 75 to 80 will be common. While temperatures will remain well above normal through Friday... conditions will significantly deteriorate later Friday and particularly Friday night when a cold front will support widespread showers and possible thunderstorms. It will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler in the wake of the front on Saturday with slow improvement. High pressure is guaranteed to supply us with beautiful but cool weather for Sunday. Near Term - Through Friday Night Tonight...the bulk of the region will remain in the warm sector. This will result in temperatures that will be some 10 degrees above normal...only bottoming out in the low to mid 50s over the western counties and in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. A shower will not be out of the question...although the flavor of the night will just be partly cloudy. On Friday...it will remain rather warm with temperatures returning to the 70s. Unfortunately...all good things must come to an end. A shortwave moving across the Lower Great Lakes in advance of a wavy cold front will touch off some scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms for the midday and afternoon. While the bulk of the region will be rain free...the risk for precipitation is probably too high to roll the dice with outdoor activities. It will be quite unsettled Friday night as a second...stronger shortwave will support the gradual passage of a surface wave and its associated cold front. Expect fairly widespread showers and possible thunderstorms with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in the vcnty of a quarter...to as much as a half inch. The higher end of that range will be favored over the far western counties. Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Latest model guidance is quicker to close off low pressure in the mid-levels on Saturday, which results in a slower exit of the system. Uncertainty in when showers will end, with the RGEM particularly slow in moving the low away. Showers will likely last into Saturday morning, and will gradually end from west to east Saturday night and into Sunday. By Sunday, high pressure building in from the west should at least allow for clear and sunny skies in Western NY but some clouds may linger east of Lake Ontario. It will be notably cooler, but even so highs will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s over the weekend, which it not too far from normal. Sunday looks to be the better of the two days, with more sunshine and lighter winds. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night through Monday night, providing confidence in fair and dry weather. With the surface high overhead, hedged a few degrees cooler than model guidance for low temperatures Sunday night. Low pressure tracking well to our north will push a cold front across the region Tuesday night. LLJ of 50 knots will result in wind shear favorable for organized convection. Late afternoon or evening timing will provide for instability to develop before its passage, so do see a risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms during this timeframe. Warm weather will continue early next week, especially Tuesday when many locations in the lower elevations could top 80F. Cooler Wednesday and Thursday following the cold frontal passage, but even behind the front temperatures will drop to near normal levels. Otherwise, high pressure building to the north will provide mainly fair and dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Marine High pressure will drift from the Lower Great Lakes to New England today with relatively light winds. The light synoptic scale flow will allow for local lake breezes this afternoon with onshore winds developing. Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes Friday afternoon before moving over or just north of the lower Great Lakes Friday night through early Saturday. East winds will increase Friday on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions developing. Conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory are more likely late Friday night through Saturday night behind the cold front, especially on Lake Ontario. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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