Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Increasing To 35 Knot Gales. Cloudy. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 10 To 13 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southwest Gales To 35 Knots Becoming West. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots Overnight. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 9 To 12 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 15 Feet. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West To 30 Knots. Lake Effect Snow Showers Likely. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Lake Effect Snow And Rain Showers Likely. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Increasing To 30 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Tuesday Night. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming North And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Rain And Snow Showers Likely During The Day, Then Snow Showers Likely Wednesday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 612pm EST Sat Jan 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for southern Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Wyoming counties from 7am Sunday to 1 AM Monday. A (long-duration) Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Jefferson, Oswego, and Lewis counties from 1pm Sunday to 7am Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Snowmelt due to mild temperatures and rain will continue to result in increased runoff through Sunday. However, all area creeks including the Buffalo Creeks have now fallen below action stage and are not forecast to reach action stage again even with one more round of rain before colder weather returns. There remains a low chance for river/creek or ice jam flooding, but chances continue to decrease with time. 2) The next storm system will bring a period of gusty winds later tonight and Sunday. The threat for any impact from a wintry mix across the North Country continues to lower as temperatures appear a bit warmer across the Tug Hill Plateau and Saint Lawrence Valley this evening...possibly starting as a brief period of mixed rain/sleet/snow before quickly going over to plain rain. 3) Several periods of short-duration Lake Effect Snow...Sunday into the first half of Sunday night and again from later Monday morning into Monday night. Winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph will cause blowing and drifting snow. 4) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed precipitation. KEY MESSAGE 1...Snowmelt due to mild temperatures and rain will continue to result in increased runoff through Sunday. However, all area creeks including the Buffalo Creeks have now fallen below action stage and are not forecast to reach action stage again even with one more round of rain before colder weather returns. There remains a low chance for river/creek or ice jam flooding, but chances continue to decrease with time. The next area of low pressure will bring another round of widespread rain this afternoon into tonight, with additional forecast rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50" expected. The higher amounts are expected to fall across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with possibly up to 0.75" on the southern/southwestern slopes of the Tug Hill. The combination of manageable rainfall amounts and breaks in between each bout of rain continues to keep area creeks and streams within their banks. All area creeks and streams are now below Action Stage and are not expected to rise back to those levels. MMEFS data supports this as well, so risk of even minor flooding looks minimal. Colder air returns by Sunday, mitigating any further hydro issues. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next storm system will bring a period of gusty winds later tonight and Sunday. The threat for any impact from a wintry mix across the North Country continues to lower as temperatures appear a bit warmer across the Tug Hill Plateau and Saint Lawrence Valley this evening...possibly starting as a brief period of mixed rain/sleet/snow late this afternoon/early evening before quickly going over to plain rain. Primary area of low pressure will lift northeast across the central Great Lakes tonight, while a secondary coastal low develops and tracks northeastward along the New England coastline. The primary low will push its trailing cold front across our region this evening, followed by a reinforcing secondary cold front as it tracks across southern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday. Warm advection/isentropic upglide out ahead of this system will result in a swath of fairly widespread precipitation spreading across the area from south to north this afternoon and evening, with a mild enough airmass in place to allow the bulk of this to fall in the form of just plain rain out ahead of the approaching cold front. Will continue the mention for a brief wintry mix at the onset across the Tug Hill and far northern Jefferson County, however thermal profiles are a bit warmer with the latest guidance, thus expect minimal impacts with little more than a brief period of mixed rain/sleet/snow at the onset before quickly transitioning over to plain rain this evening. In the wake of the cold frontal passage this evening, increasing cold advection will support effective downward transport of higher momentum air from aloft down to the surface tonight and Sunday, resulting in another round of rather windy conditions during this time frame. The strongest winds look to come in two batches...one immediately behind the cold front tonight, and then another on Sunday out ahead of an approaching secondary cold front/upper level trough axis. Given the placement of the strongest winds aloft over western New York for much of this time frame, the best potential for advisory-worthy winds still looks to lie across the typical areas ENE of Lake Erie, extending from from Chautauqua County northeastward across the Niagara Frontier over to the Rochester area. Within this region, 35-45 knot winds at 925 mb should get mixed down to the surface fairly well. Thus a Wind Advisory remains in effect for this area from 8pm this evening to 1pm Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 3...Several periods of short-duration lake effect snow...Sunday into the first half of Sunday night and again from later Monday morning into Monday night. Winds gusting up to 35 to 45 mph will cause blowing and drifting snow. Synoptic moisture wrapping around a departing mid level trough, combined with cold air advection, rising lake inversion heigheights and low level wind convergence will bring a return to lake effect snow Sunday through Sunday night. Initially bands look to start northeast of both Lakes, then focus east of the lakes through the day Sunday as temperatures aloft cool sufficiently behind a secondary trough for band development. A mid level trough and attendant surface cold front will cause winds to veer to the northwest by later Sunday afternoon and evening, weakening and dropping the snow bands southeast of the lakes through Sunday night. A surface ridge aloft and at 850 hPa will push across Lake Erie later Sunday night and Monday morning across Lake Ontario, backing winds and diminishing lake snows to light snow showers or flurries. After a brief lull with the passage of the surface ridge, another mid level shortwave trough will ripple across the Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. Within a now warm air advection pattern, widespread but light snow will be embedded with lake enhanced bands of snow off both Lakes on a west to southwest wind flow. Given the pattern, snow will likely be mainly light east/northeast of Lake Erie, although there could be nuisance inch or so during the morning commute across the Buffalo Metro. However, east of Lake Ontario, expect a second round of more moderate lake snows developing around midday and persisting into Monday night. With the above in mind, have issued Winter Weather Advisories as outlined below. KEY MESSAGE 4...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed precipitation. A potent mid-level trough will dive and dig out across the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard Tuesday night through Thursday, supporting a deepening surface low passing northwest of the forecast area. An associated strengthening low-level jet of around 55 knots will pass across the region along with some warm air to advect into the region, as such gusty, southwest winds will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additionally, with the passage of this low, expect some initial light precipitation of rain or combination of a rain/snow mix or all snow across the higher elevations Tuesday night through Wednesday. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday, and the arrival of cold air in its wake all precipitation will turn over to snow Wednesday night. There continues to remain some forecast uncertainty with the track and depth of this system, which will play a factor in the strength of the winds. However, given how the upper level trough will encompass much of the Eastern portions of the CONUS, there is greater certainty pertaining the return of cold air for the later half of the week, supporting 850mb temperatures to become cold enough to support a lake response by Thursday. Marine Easterly winds will continue to increase on the central and western basins of Lake Ontario through early evening ahead of a second storm system lifting northeastward through the central Great Lakes. This will bring greater wave action to the western Lake Ontario waters this afternoon into early this evening, before another round of more widespread southwesterly to westerly gales arrives in the wake of cold front this evening through Sunday. Looking further out through the first half of next week, elevated southwesterly to westerly flow looks to continue, with at least advisory-level conditions persisting across the Lower Lakes the majority of the time. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Wind Advisory until 1pm EST Sunday for NYZ001>003-010>012-019- 085. Winter Weather Advisory from 1pm Sunday to 7am EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory from 7am Sunday to 1am EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020-085. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 7pm EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7pm EST Sunday for LOZ042>045-062>065. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for LOZ042-043. |
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