Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming West. Mostly Cloudy In The Morning, Then Becoming Partly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming North. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Light And Variable. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 943am EDT Tuesday May 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday. 2) A cold front will bring a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, then cooler and potentially unsettled weather is expected through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday. Surface high pressure will move south across the eastern Great Lakes region today, providing mostly sunny skies. Today will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s, though it will be cooler near the lakeshores. While Wednesday will not be as warm as today, temperatures are still expected to reach the mid to upper 70s across western NY and the low to mid 70s east of Lake Ontario. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, then cooler and potentially unsettled weather is expected through the weekend. A cold front associated with low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will move south across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday. While a thin ribbon of moisture will move into the eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, mostly dry weather is expected. As the front pushes south across western NY on Wednesday, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible across the western Southern Tier. Additional showers may develop across the Niagara Frontier Wednesday afternoon. An upper level trough will develop across the Northeast, with multiple shortwave troughs passing through the region this weekend. The forecast maintains mostly dry weather with low chances for showers and thunderstorms due to a spread in model guidance and timing. Confidence is high that temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through this period. Marine Light variable winds will prevail over Lake Erie today through much of Wednesday as surface high pressure expands across the lower Great Lakes to the southern New England coast. Southwesterly winds will be a bit breezier over Lake Ontario during this timeframe, periodically reaching the 10-15kt range. This will result in a small chop on the east end of the lake at times, particularly tonight. Windier conditions will be found on the Saint Lawrence River this afternoon and early evening, with southwest winds increasing into the 15-20 knot range with higher gusts as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front moving through southern Quebec. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Otherwise, with a relatively warm airmass over the cold lake waters, there is a low chance for marine fog during the nighttime hours over Lake Erie. A cold front will cause winds to shift northerly late Wednesday into Thursday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are not expected, though 1-3' waves can be expected across the southern shorelines. Another cold front later this weekend may then bring marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to the lakes by Saturday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for SLZ022- 024. |
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