Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Light And Variable Winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...Light And Variable Winds. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming North. Partly Cloudy, Then Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southwest. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 558am EDT Fri August 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Mainly dry weather continues through Saturday. 2.) The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases this Saturday night into Sunday. Key Message 1...Mainly dry weather continues through Saturday. NW'erly flow aloft affects Western and Central NY through Saturday as a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the Canadian Prairies and vicinity. Primarily fair weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, a prominent shortwave trough embedded in the flow aloft will traverse central Lake Ontario, the Genesee Valley, and points east in our CWA (County Warning Area) this afternoon through early evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the same areas and during the same time period as low-level convergence and moist ascent along a surface trough axis accompanying the shortwave trough and any downshear outflow boundaries interacting with sufficient low-level vertical wind shear release weak boundary layer CAPE amidst moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear. Similar to yesterday, a lack of greater instability should prevent storms from becoming severe. Weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will result in negligible air mass change through Saturday. Daily highs in the 70's to lower 80's are expected today and Saturday. Mainly clear to partly cloudy sky and weak surface winds should result in lows reaching mainly the upper 40's to near 60F around daybreak today and Saturday, respectively. The coolest lows are expected in Lewis County, especially the Black River Valley, where efficient radiational cooling should be complemented by cool air drainage from adjacent higher terrain. Sufficient radiational cooling and low-level moisture are expected to result in patchy radiation fog and localized steam fog in the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region during the predawn hours through shortly after daybreak today and Saturday, respectively. Key Message 2...The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms increases this Saturday night into Sunday. During Saturday night through Sunday morning, the above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward and be followed by W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs. Surface weather pattern evolution is less certain, but latest trends in more-reliable NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, including the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model, continue to suggest a surface warm front will sweep NE'ward through our CWA Saturday night through Sunday morning as a surface low wobbles ESE'ward in vicinity of the northern Great Lakes. The warm front will usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface front should release enough CAPE, including elevated CAPE, to generate periodic and scattered showers/thunderstorms, especially Sunday morning. Lows should reach mainly the 50's to mid 60's early Sunday morning before readings begin to moderate before daybreak as low-level WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) strengthens ahead of and behind the surface warm front. Cyclonic W'erly to WNW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs should impact our region this Sunday afternoon through Monday. At the surface, the low may wobble ESE'ward from near the northern Great Lakes to near the Gulf of Maine, which should allow a cold front to sweep E'ward through our CWA Sunday evening through Sunday night. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front, amidst weak to perhaps moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear. Severe storms appear possible Sunday afternoon into the evening, but their occurrence will be contingent on multiple factors, including the degree of diurnal destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer. Behind the cold front, a surface ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through Monday. However, isolated rain showers remain possible since subtle shortwave troughs aloft and attendant surface trough axes should traverse Western and Central NY generally from west to east. In addition, 850 mb temperatures cooling to near 10C over the ~23C to ~24C eastern Great Lakes and sufficient low-level moisture on the synoptic scale should allow isolated lake-effect rain showers to impact areas generally southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst at least weak lake-induced instability and a NW'erly mean low-level flow, overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. High temperatures are forecast to reach the 70's to lower 80's Sunday afternoon. Lows should reach mainly the upper 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Monday. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70's on Monday as a somewhat cooler air mass overspreads the eastern Great Lakes, behind the cold front. Marine A high pressure ridge builds from the Canadian Prairies and settles over the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday. This ridge is expected to be accompanied by variable winds around 5 to 10 knots through tonight and mainly NE'erly to E'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots on Saturday. Waves of 2 feet or less are expected. The ridge begins to exit E'ward Saturday night and a low should wobble ESE'ward from near the northern Great Lakes to near the Gulf of Maine Saturday night through Monday. This low track should allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Saturday night and especially on Sunday before a cold front sweeps E'ward across the lakes Sunday evening through Sunday night. The warm front passage will cause mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to SW'erly. Then, the cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly to NW'erly. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected Saturday night through Sunday night. Note: periodic showers and thunderstorms should impact central and eastern Lake Ontario this afternoon into early evening and Lakes Erie and Ontario this Saturday night through Sunday night. Showers and especially storms may produce localized/brief strong winds and larger waves. Behind the cold front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through this Tuesday. W'erly to N'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast on Monday through Monday night. On Tuesday, N'erly to W'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots should back to SW'erly as the ridge begins to exit toward New England. Waves of 2 feet or less are forecast. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
Buffalo NY Radar
Northeast Radar