Marine Weather Net

Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast


5 - 15


5 - 15


15 - 25



The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LEZ041 Forecast Issued: 457 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Tuesday Night...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Wednesday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Thursday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Friday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Friday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
425pm EDT Monday Jun 24 2024

Scattered showers east of Lake Ontario will end early this evening, otherwise clearing skies and cooler conditions are expected tonight. Warm and humid conditions will return Tuesday and especially Wednesday when a pair of frontal passages will support showers and potentially strong thunderstorms.

Near Term - Through Tuesday
The center of a 998 mb low located along the Maine coast continuing to support wrap around moisture, with a scattered coverage of showers east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This activity has been trending downward and expect this activity to wind down between 22Z and 00Z. Cloud cover and lacking instability should limit any thunderstorm development across the North Country this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Clearing skies and light winds will support good radiational cooling and support overnight low temperatures in the 50s, along with the potential for some Southern Tier valley fog and perhaps some fog east of Lake Ontario where rain lingered today.

Surface high pressure will slide across and then east of the region Tuesday, with a southerly return flow developing. Some minor height rises aloft within general flat ridging will bring about a warm advective flow, sending temperatures back into the lower to mid 80s, although humidity levels should remain on the comfortable side with dewpoints staying below 60F for the most part.

Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Friday
A progressive quasi-zonal flow will continue right through next weekend and into early next week, as the strong upper level ridge that brought the oppressive heat and humidity to the region last week remains suppressed over the southern half of the CONUS. This regime will provide bouts of comfortable temperatures along with periods of more typical mid summer warmth ahead of a couple cold frontal mid week and the second this weekend. This will also translate to periods of dry time, with storm chances ramping up along and ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundaries.

Heading into Tuesday night, a mid level ripple will move across southern Quebec first half of the night with the southern flank of this feature just grazing the area, while an associated warm frontal segment in the low levels slides northeast across the area at the same time. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will ramp up into the 1.25-1.5" range. Better forcing will be toward the Saint Lawrence Valley where the better mid and upper level dynamics will reside, thus will have high Chc to low Lkly Probability of Precipitation toward the North Country, trailing off to low Chc toward southwestern NYS. Some embedded thunder possible as well. This will be quickly followed up by an initial cold front approaching from the northwest that will move into the area later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The timing of the front is a bit sooner than previously advertised, however a wave riding northeast along the boundary may significantly slow its southeastward progression, possibly lingering the front across areas south of the NYS Thruway into Wednesday afternoon. Here in lies the problem as this will allow our severe weather chances to remain in place across these areas, while areas to the north would have much lower chances for strong storms. Currently, Storm Prediction Center has the northern edge of a Day 3 Marginal Risk just clipping the western Southern Tier, which lines up well with our thinking of the frontal positioning. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 1.5" may also lead to some areas of heavy rainfall with the strongest storms, again mainly south of the NYS Thruway if this scenario holds true. It will be a warm day with more humid conditions. Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

As the wave pushes east of the area, the initial cold front will push south of our area. A secondary cold front will then cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a much more refreshing airmass moving into the region in its wake. With deeper moisture departing east with initial wave, not expecting more than some scattered showers/isolated rumble of thunder as the boundary passes through the area. Depending of the speed of the front, a few showers may linger across eastern areas Thursday morning, otherwise a dome of high pressure builds in from the west bringing dry weather through Friday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. In fact, below normal temperatures are expected Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Similar to the first part of the work week, high pressure then slides east of the area Friday with a warming southerly return flow boosting temperatures back near normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Monday
As mentioned above, quasi-zonal flow remains in place through this period, with two notable features being a warm front followed by a cold front, both slated to push across the area this weekend. Both of these features will bring the next round of showers and storms to the region, however differences in exact timing of said frontal boundaries continues to be a point of discrepancy amongst the "big 3." Nothing too uncommon at this time range. With this in mind, will keep the goal posts a bit wider, with most of the more active weather likely occurring somewhere in the Friday night through Saturday night timeframe. Will be able to shrink this window down as we get closer in time. That said, there will once again be a secondary cold front crossing the region which brings the return of dry weather and yet another cooler, more refreshing airmass to western and northcentral NY in its wake. Question is timing of this secondary boundary as well. If the later in time solution comes to fruition, a few showers/isolated storms could linger into at least the first part of Sunday.

Warm and humid to start the weekend will trend to cooler and less humid conditions for the second half of the weekend into the start of the new work week.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Monday
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central New York for the latter part of the work week. This should result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

Small craft advisories include all of the Lake Ontario nearshore waters due to northwesterly flow through much of today. Winds and waves will begin to subside this evening as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley today through Tuesday.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6pm EDT this evening for NYZ001>003-007. Beach Hazards Statement until 11pm EDT this evening for NYZ004>006.

Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ043>045.