Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Mainly Clear This Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. The Lake Is Mostly Ice Covered. |
| Friday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mostly Sunny. |
| Friday Night...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 5 To 15 Knots. Partly Sunny. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening, Then Snow Showers Likely Overnight. |
| Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. Mostly Cloudy. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Becoming Mainly Clear. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Rain Showers Tuesday Night. Waves Omitted Due To The Lake Being Mostly Ice Covered. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 135pm EST Thu Feb 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes at this time. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Short lived dry conditions to end the week with milder weather Friday. 2) Turning colder Saturday night through early next week before a more active, but milder pattern arrives the middle of next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Short lived dry conditions to end the week with milder weather Friday. Surface high pressure overhead today will continue to see clearing skies headed into late this afternoon and Thursday night with any lingering snow showers diminishing this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures Friday will aim to be 10-15 degF warmer than Thursday. These milder conditions will come to an end with a cold frontal passage Saturday associated with a system passing into northern Quebec that will also bring scattered rain showers (high elevation snow showers) to western and north-central NY. Current hi-res guidance suggests prefrontal showers in the morning with a cold frontal passage in the early afternoon that will likely limit maxTs for Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning colder Saturday night through early next week before a more active, but milder pattern arrives the middle of next week. Behind the frontal passage earlier on Saturday, colder air will continue to spread across western NY overnight into Sunday. Additionally, a progressive shortwave passage just to the north within the broader scale troughing pattern will help to enhance the trailing frontal boundary aloft leading to a quick round of light snowfall. Accumulations will be on the lighter side with latest NBM probability of exceeding 2" of accumulation only reaching 30%. The main focus area will be across the western Southern Tier Saturday night into early Sunday. Grand ensemble members have continued to trend slightly drier and become better aligned for the start of next week with a stronger and more expansive area of high pressure over the lower Great Lakes into the northeast. However, this trend ensures a colder start to the week with 850mb temps in the -15 to -20 degC range approaching the climatological 10th percentile for early March. This cold looks to stick around until this surface high begins to move off the coast Tuesday with southerly low-level flow kickstarting a warming trend for the middle of next week. This warming trend to milder conditions for the remainder of the week will also bring an active pattern of multiple chances for precipitation with numerous shortwave passages ejecting out of the central CONUS. As of right now, ptype looks to be primarily rainfall based on the track of the these systems into the upper Great Lakes, but plenty of uncertainty still remains. Marine The next period of stronger winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions will arrive Friday night and last through Saturday as a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes. Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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