Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers, Then Lake Effect Snow Late. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest To 30 Knots. Lake Effect Snow. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Effect Snow. Waves 7 To 10 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Increasing To 35 Knot Gales. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming South And Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 5 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest And Increasing To 40 Knot Gales. Rain During The Day, Then Rain With Snow Likely Thursday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 11 To 15 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 19 Feet. |
| Friday...West Gales To 40 Knots Becoming Southwest And Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers During The Day. Waves 10 To 14 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 127am EST Monday Dec 15 2025 Synopsis One more round of lake enhanced snow will bring light to moderate accumulations today through this evening east and northeast of Lake Erie including the Buffalo area, and moderate to locally heavy accumulations east of Lake Ontario. The lake effect snow will taper off east of Lake Erie overnight, and by late Tuesday morning east of Lake Ontario. A warming trend will then develop through the middle of the week with less active weather. A strong cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night, bringing strong, gusty winds and a period of rain. Much colder air will pour back into the region Friday with lake effect snow showers. Near Term - Through Today A northwest flow of cold air continues to support areas of light lake effect and upslope snow showers southeast of the lakes early this morning. Boundary layer flow will back to the WSW through the morning hours, carrying lake effect snow northward off both lakes. The pure lake effect regime will evolve into lake enhanced snow today as another clipper shortwave and surface cold front moves east across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. Off Lake Erie... Weak upslope flurries and light snow showers will become better organized again this morning on westerly flow across the western Southern Tier. This may produce a fresh 1-2" of accumulation across Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties this morning. The band of lake enhanced snow will then move north to the Buffalo Metro area from late morning through this evening. The band of snow will likely broaden out over a larger footprint for several hours this afternoon near the time of the trough passage when synoptic scale moisture and ascent peak, before contracting back to a more localized lake effect band this evening and settling back south before mostly dissipating overnight. If the lake response lasts long enough through Tuesday morning, there may be some risk of a period of freezing drizzle as inversion heigheights lower and deep moisture is stripped away, leaving behind a cloud bearing layer lacking ice nuclei. As far as accumulations go, expect a general 2-4" in the area of lake enhancement across the Niagara Frontier, with some local 5" reports possible where the lake snow lasts the longest. Off Lake Ontario... Weak multiple bands in northwest flow early this morning will consolidate back into a more concentrated area of accumulating snow across northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties by mid morning, with this band then moving northeast across Oswego County late morning through early afternoon before ending up in Jefferson County and the northern Tug Hill by mid afternoon. The band should reach its strongest late afternoon through the evening hours across southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau, with 2" per hour snowfall rates possible. Expect a weakening trend by late tonight as inversion heigheights begin to lower and better synoptic scale moisture moves off. As far as accumulations go, expect an additional few inches in Wayne County this morning, and 3-6" across far northern Cayuga County and much of Oswego County as the band swings northeast across the area. Far northern Oswego County may see 6-10" if the stronger phase of the band this evening clips the county. The greatest accumulations will be found across southern Jefferson County and the northwest portion of the Tug Hill Plateau, with 8-16" in the most persistent band. Outside of the main lake effect areas, the passing clipper cold front and trough will produce a few light snow showers this afternoon with a dusting of accumulation in spots. It will become windy enough near Lake Erie and across the Niagara Frontier to support some blowing snow in open areas from late morning through evening. Short Term - Tonight Through Wednesday Night As a shortwave trough exits the Northeast coast Tuesday, a more zonal and progressive flow pattern will spread across the eastern United States. Initially, surface high pressure centered over the Southeastern Atlantic Coast ridging northward across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Ongoing lake effect snow, east of Lake Ontario will continue to peter out and push north across the Watertown metro area through Tuesday afternoon. Additional snow amounts of up to an inch will be possible. Aforementioned surface high pressure will slide east off of the Atlantic coast Tuesday night supporting, strong warm air advection will ensue aloft. Overall, dry weather and seasonable weather is expected Tuesday night. Heading into Wednesday, the next weak trough will slide east across the eastern Great Lakes supporting a weak cold front to pass across western and north central New York. Ahead of the frontal passage, warm air advection will support temperatures to rise above normal. Additionally associated with the frontal passage, chances for a few rain showers and higher elevation snow showers, mainly east of Lake Ontario. A transient ridge will pass across the region Wednesday night, supporting another brief period of dry weather. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday Deep southwesterly flow ensues across the region Thursday as a sharp, but progressive mid/upper level trough digs south across the upper Mississippi Valley. Strong warm air advection and deeper moisture streaming in from the south ahead of this feature will bring the likelihood of mainly rain showers by Thursday afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 30s and 40s. It will also become very windy as a 60-70 knot southerly low-level jet moves across the area. Being that the jet is in the warm air advection side of the system, expect only partial mixing down of the winds aloft. That said, a very tight pressure gradient setting up across the area due to strong low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will bring the potential for strong winds, especially across downslope areas. A round of rain and wind is then expected Thursday night as a strong cold front plows across the area. Rain will rapidly change to snow behind the front due to a shot of much colder air moves in behind the boundary. 40-50 knot low-level jet lingers in the cold air advection regime as deepening low pressure pulls northeast into southern Quebec, so expect gusty winds for Thursday night and Friday as well, with temperatures feeling much more like winter once again to finish out the work week. Some potential lake effect snow on Friday as well with much colder air in place. This powerful system and cold front will need to be monitored closely over the coming days for potential impactful weather (especially strong winds) across western and north central area. The roller coaster of temperatures will continue through the weekend, as a strong warm front pushes across the region boosting temperatures back towards normal Saturday, before falling back towards normal Sunday with the passage of a cold front. With the frontal passages, brings the chance for rain/higher terrain snow showers Saturday and snow showers Sunday. Marine Winds will back to the southwest and increase today as a clipper cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes, bringing solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will gradually diminish late tonight through Tuesday, but still remain at or near Small Craft Advisory criteria. Another cold front passes the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds increasing to 30 knots on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a small chance of a brief period of gales. Strong low pressure will move across Ontario and Quebec Thursday through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds will increase to gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front, then swing around to westerly Friday behind the front with gales likely continuing on both lakes. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10am this morning to 7am EST Tuesday for NYZ001-002-010>012-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for NYZ004. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1pm EST this afternoon for NYZ005. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7am this morning to 1pm EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045. |
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