Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots. Snow Showers Likely. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West. Lake Effect Snow Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 7 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...West Winds To 30 Knots. Snow Showers Likely. Waves 6 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots. Snow Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Snow Saturday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. Snow Likely. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 637pm EST Wednesday Jan 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Warning from 1AM tonight through 7PM Friday evening. Extreme Cold Watch issued for the North Country from 7PM Friday night through 1PM Saturday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light snow and gusty winds this afternoon through this evening. 2) Snow showers, gusty winds and turning much colder behind the Arctic front tonight into Thursday. 3) Gusty winds and lake effect snows develop Thursday off both lakes, with significant accumulations possible east of Lake Ontario through Friday. 4) Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and last through the weekend. 5) Widespread snow becoming more likely Sunday - Sunday night KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow and gusty winds this afternoon through this evening. A passing clipper system will bring an area of light snow through the region this evening. Overall, snowfall accumulations will be light, 2-4" possible across the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued through 7am Thursday. Elsewhere, expect 3-6" east of Lake Ontario, with the highest amounts across the southern slopes of the Tug Hill. Much lower snow amounts are expected across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region with generally an inch or two at best. Additionally, a strong southerly LLJ (+50 knots) plowing into the region within the warm sector, despite poor mixing will support will support some wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph into this evening. These stronger wind gust will mainly focus north of the Chautauqua Ridge down to the Lake Erie shore and also downwind of the northern slopes of the Tug Hill late this afternoon through this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow showers, gusty winds and turning much colder behind the Arctic front tonight into Thursday. An Arctic front will approach this area this evening and then plow east through much of the region overnight into Thursday. With it, we may see an enhanced line (squall) or area of snow showers work from west to east. After that...a much colder (frigid) airmass will pour into the region through the day Thursday. KEY MESSAGES 3...Gusty winds and lake effect snows develop Thursday off both lakes, with significant accumulations possible east of Lake Ontario through Friday. Another round of lake effect snows expected Thursday behind the Arctic front which will last into Friday. The lake bands will focus east and east-northeast of the lakes under a general west- southwesterly to westerly low level flow. With this event the better environment by far will be over Lake Ontario, where substantially deeper moisture and a fetch parallel/near parallel to the long axis of the lake will be in place. Convergence into the expected Lake Ontario band will be further augmented by a lake-aggregate thermally-enhanced surface trough Thursday night into Friday. This setup will likely be sufficient for significant accumulations from near/just south of the Watertown area to the Tug Hill, with the band then drifting southward across the south shore of the lake and giving way to weaker multi-banded lake snows later Friday and Friday evening as winds veer following the trough passage. A Winter Storm Warning for the eastern Lake Ontario Region remains in effect through Friday evening. Off Lake Erie...the environment appears to feature a bit shallower moisture, with a bit more in the way of oscillations in the low- level flow which will have a tendency to move the lake snows around somewhat more compared to those off Lake Ontario. Coupling this with increasing ice coverage, confidence in warning criteria amounts remains lower. That said...it is still possible that we may see very 'LOW' end 'WARNING" amounts in spots but for now confidence will hold to previous thinking with more of a high end advisory- type event. Also, with Cold Air Advection ongoing Thursday and a decent LLJ aloft, we will likely see wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph through Friday, and maybe a few isolated gusts to 50 mph. Key Message 4...Dangerously cold airmass will arrive Friday and last through the weekend. An anomalous strong western ridge of high pressure will extend northward across Alaska and towards the arctic circle, allowing for polar air to slide southward across Canada this week...with the cold air supporting a strong +3 SD 1052 mb surface high pressure over the northern Plains Friday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will fall to the mid negative 20s Friday night through Saturday ahead of this surface high. A bitterly and dangerously cold weekend with overnight lows dropping to near zero...to inland areas well below zero. East of Lake Ontario some of the traditionally colder spots on top of recent growing and fresh snowpack could drop to minus 20 or lower. A light wind will allow for wind chill values to plummet to as low as 40 degrees below zero on the Tug Hill with values minus 25 to minus 35 near Watertown and through the Black River Valley. An extreme cold watch has been issued for the North Country. Highs Saturday will only recover to the single digits above zero for WNY, and may linger below zero Saturday east of Lake Ontario. These values may push record territory for record low maximum temperatures for the date, with records listed in the climate section below. Increasing clouds Saturday and Saturday night may keep apparent temperatures just above advisory levels. Key Message 5...Widespread snow becoming more likely Sunday - Sunday night Ahead of phasing northern and southern stream jets, broad scale isentropic lift along with the right entrance region of a 300 hPa 180 knot jet, will send a plume of snow northward...this also on the northwest side of a developing nor'easter. Pacific moisture, combined with Gulf moisture will make for a moisture rich atmosphere to allow for a prolonged period of light snow across our region to close out the weekend. NBM probabilities for greater than 4 inch snowfall amounts Sun-Sunday night have increased from around 15% to now over 60% for areas south of Lake Ontario in the past 24 hours, while east of Lake Ontario still has a 50 percent probability for 4 inches of snow or more over a 24- hour period. If these trends continue, possible warning criteria snow is possible especially for areas south and east, closer to the main surface low to the east. Snow will end late Sunday night as deformation band of heavier precipitation develops and exits eastward...along with the synoptic lift with the 180 knot jet ending. A sharp northern branch shortwave trough will pass overhead Monday. Cold air advection will maintain a bitterly cold airmass into next week with lake effect snow falling downwind of the Great Lakes...with highest chances east of Lake Ontario where the waters remain open. Marine Southwest to south winds of 20-30 knots behind a warm front today and tonight, with winds shifting more westerly by Thursday behind a cold front. Westerly winds will strengthen Thursday and Friday as another round of arctic air spreads across the region. Gale force winds are possible on Lake Ontario during this time period, with a Gale watch issued. Winds should be slightly lower on Lake Erie, but still near 30 knots at times. Winds should lower some this weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Climate Buffalo Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -11 (1976) 5(1976) January 24 -11 (1976) 1(1963) January 25 -14 (1884) 5(1884) Rochester Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -14 (1976) 5(1976) January 24 -10 (1963) 2(1963) January 25 -6 (1945) 7(1884) Watertown Record low minimum temperature Record low high temperature January 23 -31 (1976) -1(1976) January 24 -30 (2014) 0(2004) January 25 -18 (2007) 3(1992) NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for NYZ001-002- 019>021. Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Friday for NYZ006>008. Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for NYZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Friday for NYZ010>012- 085. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Friday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Thursday for LOZ042>045. Gale Warning from 1am Thursday to 7pm EST Friday for LOZ042>045-062>065. |
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