Marine Weather Net

Lake Erie - Dunkirk to Buffalo NY Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LEZ041 Forecast Issued: 933 AM EST Sun Mar 03 2024

Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers During The Day, Then Showers Likely Tuesday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Thursday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
933am EST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Synopsis
Overcast skies will continue through this evening across most of the region. High pressure will then remain anchored along the east coast tonight through Monday, providing a stretch of dry weather and unseasonable warmth. The warm weather will peak Monday through Tuesday before a cold front crosses the region Tuesday night, starting a cooling trend for the second half of next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
Surface observations and webcams show the fog decreasing in coverage this morning with improved visibility in most locations. There are still some patches of 1/4SM to 1/2SM fog from the Genesee Valley to the eastern Lake Ontario region, but these will continue to shrink through the rest of the morning and be mostly gone by midday.

Visible satellite imagery showing overcast skies across the entire region this morning. Satellite trends and the very steep inversion noted in the 12Z KBUF sounding do not offer much promise of the low stratus breaking up today. With this in mind, went far more pessimistic on cloud cover through this evening, with most areas staying overcast. The clouds will hold temperatures down well below their full potential in this overall warm airmass. Expect highs to reach the lower 50s in most lower elevation locations, with mid to upper 40s across higher terrain, the North Country, and along the south shore of Lake Ontario.

A light southerly flow will persist across the region tonight. Low stratus may develop across the higher elevations again late tonight which may result in foggy conditions on the hill tops. Mild tonight, low temperatures in the upper 30s across north central NY to the low 40s across western NY.

Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Anonymously strong mid/upper level ridge (+2 std devs) will be over the region Monday. Deep southerly flow around the surface high just east of the area will allow for record or near record warmth at all 3 of our climate sites. Based on 925 mb consensus temperatures near +13C suggesting highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for much of the area, with cooler temperatures across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Mid/upper level ridge axis will drift east Monday night, while the surface high shifts further to the east. This should will continue to provide dry and mild weather through the night. Clouds should start to increase as a weak coastal low starts tracking up along the east coast from the Carolinas and a cold front begins to move into the upper Great Lakes. Overnight temperatures should hold in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Interesting forecast for Tuesday as the weak coastal low continues to slide northward into New England through the day, while the cold front only slowly presses southeastward. This could leave western and north central New York dry for a good portion of the day, perhaps even the entire day. There will be cloudiness around, but if the showers can hold off another day of record or near record warmth is certain attainable with highs like to be mainly in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, with upper 50s to lower 60s east of Lake Ontario.

Weak coastal low moves toward the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night, while cold front finally presses east into the lower Great Lakes region. This will bring increasing shower chances through the overnight.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
A frontal boundary dropping southeast across the Great Lakes will cross the area on Wednesday causing showers to continue into the day. As the front tracks east, an area of low pressure tracking northeast along or just inland from the coast will start to increase the potential for rainfall from west to east for the Wednesday afternoon/night. There still remains a fair amount of disagreement among the different models as to how far west the surface low will track, with the best chance for steadier rain in any scenario located east of Lake Ontario. All the models currently keep the main swath of rain for Central NY and points east which is a shift east from the past day or so with this system.

There should be a break in precipitation for most of Thursday and Friday before another system tracks toward the region.

The next potential for rain will come later Friday into Saturday as an area of low pressure tracks northeast across the Ohio Valley. Guidance generally agrees pretty well for the track of the system, but timing is still spread amongst the different models with as much as a 18 hour timing spread from Friday evening to Sunday afternoon for precipitation onset timing.

Temperatures while cooler than the start of the week will still generally be a solid 5 to 10 degrees above normal, possibly more depending on track and speed of the different fronts and systems. Temperatures should remain warm enough for most of the precipitation to remain in the form of rain, but some nighttime and higher terrain snow or mix of rain/snow will be possible. Temperatures for most of the long term period will be in the low 40s to mid 50s with Thursday being the coolest day as of now.

Marine
Winds will remain relatively light through early next week, generally under 12 knots and waves less than 2 feet. The one exception will be this afternoon, when east winds briefly increase into the 10-15 knot range on Lake Ontario with choppy conditions on the west half of the lake.

Climate
February 2024 was a warm month with below normal snowfall across western and north central NY. Average temperatures for the three climate sites either tied for the warmest February on record or came in as the 2nd warmest on record.

Average Temperature(F)

February 2024 Record

Buffalo 34.8(Tied for warmest) 34.8 (2017)

Rochester 34.7(2nd warmest) 35.5 (2017)

Watertown 30.1(3rd warmest) 31.2 (1981)

Temperature Period of Record Buffalo 1871 - Present Rochester 1871 - Present Watertown 1949 - Present

Another round of potentially record breaking warmth is expected across the region today through Tuesday. Current record highs for our three major climate sites are as follows:

Today 3/3 Monday 3/4 Tuesday 3/5

Buffalo 70/1974 63/1974 68/2004

Rochester 65/2008 69/1974 67/2004

Watertown 59/2008 56/1974 67/1976

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
None.

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