Marine Weather Net

Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast


WINDS

VARIABLE
15
KNOTS

WAVES

1/2
METRE
OR
LESS
BUILDING

SKIES


SHOWERS
THIS
EVENING

THURSDAY

SW
WINDS
20
DIMINISHING

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
Environment Canada Forecast Issued: 930 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Winds... Wind Variable 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 This Evening Then Diminishing To Southwest 10 Thursday Evening.
Waves... Waves 0.5 Metres Or Less Building To 0.5 To 1 Near Midnight Then Subsiding To 0.5 Or Less Thursday Evening.
Skies... Showers This Evening With A Risk Of Thunderstorms.
Thursday...Winds Southwest 20 Knots Diminishing To Light Late In The Day.
Friday...Winds Light Becoming Northwest 15 Knots Late In The Day.
Saturday...Winds Northwest 15 Knots.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1001pm EDT Wednesday April 17 2024

Synopsis
A cold front will track across the region tonight with more showers and a few gusty thunderstorms, especially across western New York this evening. High pressure will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. A secondary cold front will bring scattered showers Friday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6pm THURSDAY EVENING/... At 10 p.m. a line of showers with some embedded thunderstorms is across Western NY. The severe risk is pretty much over with these weakening and entering an even more stable air mass to the east. The risk for thunderstorms will linger into the overnight period as these continue to move eastward staying just ahead of the frontal boundary. Fog is possible northeast of Lake Erie following the passage of the front.

Surface boundary will finish pushing through the eastern half of the area Thursday. A few lingering showers may remain through late morning, before ridging makes its way into western New York bringing improving conditions for the afternoon. Deeper moisture ahead of the boundary will keep steadier showers going east of Lake Ontario through the morning hours, before tapering off to more in the way of scattered activity behind the boundary. Temperatures will run mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM /6pm THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weakening mid-level ridge across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night will give way to broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes by Friday where it will remain overhead into the weekend. Within this troughing pattern a few shortwave troughs will round its base creating on and off active weather.

Thursday night, an occluded front sprawled across the eastern Lake Ontario region will continue to exit east, supporting lingering light rain showers. In the wake of the frontal passage, a transient ridge will slide east across the region providing a short period of dry weather.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday and Friday night, supporting a the low pressure system over northern Ontario to strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by Friday night. This will introduce an associated strong cold front to sweep across the region from west to east, supporting steady rain to fall. Rainfall amounts will average between a tenth to a quarter of an inch. By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North Country, while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid- level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon. Broad surface high pressure over the Central Plains will begin to work its way east Saturday night.

Long Term - Sunday Through Tuesday
High pressure centered over the Plains States at the start of this period will ridge eastward across our area through Monday...then will drift east across New England Monday night. This will help to keep any passing weak northern stream systems confined to Ontario and Quebec...thereby resulting in fair dry weather for our region. With broad/flat troughing aloft on Sunday giving way to more of a zonal flow during Monday...initially below-normal highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday will be followed by a return to near-normal readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday.

While the medium range guidance packages continue to differ in some of the details...there remains general agreement that a low- amplitude mid-level trough and its associated surface reflection will push east and across our region between Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will bring our next general chance of showers...with slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) out ahead of it on Tuesday giving way to slightly below normal readings (generally low- mid 50s) following its passage on Wednesday.

Marine
Small Craft conditions will remain through early tonight on the western end of Lake Ontario of an approaching warm front. A southwest-west flow will develop by Friday into Saturday and could approach 20 knots with a period of small craft conditions possible on both lakes at some period during this period. High pressure building into the lower Great Lakes will bring weakening winds Sunday and Monday.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for LOZ042-043.



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