Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
| Winds... Wind Southwest 25 Knots Increasing To Southwest 30 Early This Morning Then Veering To West 25 Near Noon. Wind Veering To Northwest 25 Sunday Morning Then Diminishing To Northwest 15 Sunday Evening. |
| Waves... Waves 1.5 Metres Building To 2 This Morning Then Subsiding To 1 To 1.5 This Afternoon. Waves Subsiding To 1 Sunday Evening. |
| Skies... Flurries Ending This Afternoon. Scattered Flurries Tonight And Sunday. Visibility 1 Mile Or Less In Flurries. |
| Monday...Winds West 15 Knots Increasing To Southwest 30 In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday...Winds West 15 Knots Increasing To Southwest 25 Late In The Day. |
| Wednesday...Winds Southwest 25 Knots Diminishing To Light Late In The Day. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 339am EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Synopsis Our brief break in the active weather will come to an abrupt end today as a strong cold front plows across the region. Lake enhanced snow will develop toward morning across Niagara County ahead of an arctic cold front, with a quick few inches of snow possible northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario through early this afternoon as the front crosses the region, followed by lake snows quickly shifting east of the lakes in the wake of the frontal passage. Much colder air moves back into the area behind the front bringing another round of locally heavy lake snows east and southeast of the lakes late today through Sunday night. Near Term - Through Tonight A Clipper system will track across southern Quebec today through tonight while sending an attendant arctic cold front through western and northcentral NY producing a quick few inches of lake enhanced snow as it crosses the area this morning through early afternoon, with another shot of much colder air poised to pour across the region later today and tonight in the wake of the frontal passage setting the stage for another round of heavy lake snows east and southeast of the lakes. Lake effect snow details follow just below... Off Lake Erie... Latest surface observations show Arctic cold front just about to move east over Lake Huron very early this morning. Winds have already backed to south-southwesterly well ahead of the boundary pushing any lingering weak lake effect snow shower activity over the Niagara Peninsula, just clipping far western Niagara County. This weak lake response will likely continue across these areas and eventually start to strengthen within a couple hours of daybreak as deeper moisture pushing into the area combined with increasing surface convergence ahead of the front will lead to a band of lake enhanced snow developing north-northeast of the lake, initially across western Niagara County, possibly sagging as far south as far northwestern Erie County toward morning with an inch or two of accumulation possible across these areas by daybreak. Arctic front then plows across the area this morning through early afternoon, pushing this band of lake enhanced snows further south and east across the area, into the Boston Hills and Southern Tier by midday. Expect a burst of snow northeast of Lake Erie along and just ahead of the boundary with a quick of 1-3 inches of snow possible across the Buffalo Metro area during the mid to late morning hours. This band will weaken as it presses further east and southeast as it loses lake influences. Winds quickly veer west in the wake of the frontal passage with lake effect snows setting up east of the lake later this afternoon through tonight. A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. Expect localized snowfall amounts of 3-5 inches from late this afternoon through tonight in the most persistent snows, with much less elsewhere. Off Lake Ontario... Latest surface observations show Arctic cold front just about to move east over Lake Huron very early this morning. Winds have already backed to southwesterly well ahead of the boundary pushing any lingering nuisance lake effect snow shower activity into the Thousand Islands region and Canada where it will persist through daybreak. Lake enhanced snow showers will begin to intensify mid to late morning north-northeast of the lake as deeper moisture starts to move into this region ahead of the approaching Arctic front. Boundary will plow across the eastern Lake Ontario region early to mid afternoon with a burst of heavy snow producing a quick 1-3 inches across the North Country and Tug Hill region, including the Watertown area. Winds quickly veer west behind the front sending lake snows east of the lake. A fetch down the long axis of the lake, deepening of moisture and colder air, and equilibrium levels rising to around 10K feet with strong lift through a saturated DGZ will result in an intense band of lake effect snow developing this evening due east of the Lake centered on the Tug Hill, before slowly sagging south with heavy lake snows mainly impacting Oswego County during the second half of tonight as flow veers slightly. Snowfall rates may reach 2-4" per hour in the most intense portion of the band, especially later tonight across Oswego County. Snowfall amounts of 8-14 inches will be possible tonight in the most persistent snows. Lake Effect Snow Warnings remain in effect for all of the eastern Lake Ontario region as outlined below. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Main focus through the short term will be ongoing lake effect snow Sunday through Sunday night, then another clipper shortwave Monday which will likely become lake enhanced east of the lakes. Lake induced equilibrium levels will peak at nearly 15K feet Sunday morning just ahead of a secondary arctic front, when synoptic scale moisture and ascent are greatest. The W/WNW flow regime early Sunday will quickly become NNW following the passage of the secondary front, ending the single band configuration of lake effect snow and forcing a more widespread spray of light snow showers. Off Lake Erie... The setup is less favorable over Lake Erie, with more limited moisture and fetch. Sunday morning, WNW flow will continue to support some mainly light upslope snow across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. A Lake Huron connection will likely move south across the area as well, providing locally enhanced snowfall rates and amounts. Boundary layer flow will continue to veer through the afternoon as the secondary boundary moves south. Increased convergence along the passing boundary will likely enhance bands of snow briefly across the western Southern Tier. The Lake Huron connection will move west of the area into NW PA by early Sunday evening, and shortening NNW fetch will allow the lake effect snow to taper off to just light snow showers across the higher terrain. Additional accumulations Sunday through Sunday evening will be in the 2-4"/3-5" range across the higher terrain. This will bring totals into the 8-12" range in locations where bands persist the longest, most likely on the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. Off Lake Ontario... A much more robust setup will continue through Sunday morning at the east end of the lake, focusing on Oswego and far northern Cayuga counties. There is still some uncertainty with how fast the band will progress southward Sunday morning, but in general expect a band in central or northern Oswego County early in the morning to focus across southwest Oswego County and far northern Cayuga county for several hours mid morning through midday. Forecast BUFKIT soundings over Lake Ontario show an ideal setup for large dendrite conglomerates with a deep mixed phase dendritic growth zone topped by a deep supersaturated ice nuclei layer above. The forecast anticyclonic band structure focusing into western Oswego County Sunday morning is indicative of a band being strongly forced by a land breeze convergence zone at the southwest corner of the lake. These types of bands often have impressive hourly snowfall rates, and this one could potentially produce 3-4" per hour. The sharp secondary cold front will move south across Lake Ontario by late morning or midday. This will shove the west-east oriented band southward and onshore along much of the south shore of the lake, producing a quick burst of heavy snow as it does so from Oswego County westward to the Rochester area. Following this onshore push, NNW flow will allow a spray of multiple bands of light lake effect snow showers across much of the region south of Lake Ontario, from Niagara to Oswego counties and spreading inland to well south of the NYS Thruway. This will be much lighter intensity snow, but will produce minor additional accumulations across much of the region. This will continue into Sunday evening before boundary layer flow begins to back more to the NW overnight, focusing the remaining snow southeast of the Lake from Rochester to western Oswego County. As far as accumulations go, additional accumulations Sunday in Oswego and far northern Cayuga County may reach or exceed a foot, depending on how long the band is able to remain over one location. Wayne County can expect 1-3" for most of the county, and 3-6" in the northeast corner of the County. Elsewhere, expect a dusting to an inch or two in the spray of multiple bands south of the lake. Storm totals in Oswego County will likely reach 1-2 feet in the most persistent bands, but there is a chance of over 2 feet if the band is able to remain stationary for long enough. 6-12" is likely in far southern Jefferson and far western Lewis counties. This is a scenario where the heaviest snow will likely focus close to the lakeshore and not over the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau. Monday through Monday night, another mid level shortwave and surface cold front will move east across the eastern Great Lakes. This feature will produce some light synoptic snow, but the airmass remains cold enough to support lake enhancement east and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. There is some potential for advisory worthy snow amounts east/northeast of Lake Erie including the Buffalo Metro area, and a greater chance of higher end advisory or even low end warning amounts east of Lake Ontario. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday The very active and cold pattern will finally come to an end as we head into the middle of next week. High pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic Tuesday, with any lingering light lake effect snow showers in the morning coming to an end as warm advection rapidly increases. A weak frontal boundary will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday, with a chance of a few rain or wet snow showers. Much warmer air will arrive by Thursday as a strong Pacific trough advances east across North America and forces strong height rises and warm advection to spread into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Temps will rise well into the 40s, with even some potential for 50s if the rain holds off long enough. Strong low pressure will move across northwest Ontario to James Bay, with a trailing strong cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night. This will bring a period of rain to the region. Much colder air pours back into the Great Lakes late Thursday night and Friday, with precipitation changing back to snow. There may be a brief window of lake effect snow Friday, but this potential looks limited with a rapid arrival of dry air by later Friday, and then another push of strong warm advection by Saturday. Marine Elevated southwesterly to westerly flow will be commonplace across the Lower Great Lakes for much of the time through at least early Monday...and for this reason Small Craft Advisories are in effect as outlined below. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4am Sunday to 4am EST Monday for NYZ004. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 4am Sunday to 4am EST Monday for NYZ005. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4pm EST Sunday for NYZ006. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 1pm EST Sunday for NYZ007-008. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7am this morning to 7am EST Monday for NYZ019-020-085. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Monday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Monday for LOZ045. |