Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
|Winds... Wind Southwest 10 Knots Becoming Light Late Overnight Then Increasing To Northwest 15 Monday Morning. Wind Increasing To West 20 Monday Afternoon.|
|Waves... Waves 0.5 Metres Or Less Building To 0.5 To 1 Near Noon Monday And To 1 To 1.5 Monday Evening.|
|Skies... Showers Overnight And Monday With A Risk Of Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...Winds Northwest 15 Knots Backing To West 20 In The Morning.|
|Wednesday...Winds Northeast 15 Knots Diminishing To Light.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1038pm EDT Sunday May 15 2022
A warm and humid airmass will remain in place through tonight. A strong cold front crossing the Great Lakes Monday will bring a chance of severe thunderstorms, especially from the Genesee Valley eastward. This cold front will also usher in a much cooler airmass into the region by Tuesday along with some lingering showers east of Lake Ontario.
Near Term - Through Monday
General subsidence found between an exiting shortwave over New England an approaching cold front over southern Ontario/Lake Huron will supply western and north central New York with fair dry weather tonight. The only real issue is whether we can keep clouds out of the region long enough to view the lunar eclipse tonight. The eclipse has now started and will last until around 2 AM... peaking around midnight.
While forecast models suggest that the bulk of western and north central New York should be able to view at least a large chunk of the eclipse...convective debris is now starting to thicken across the western counties. This high (and eventually mid level) cloud cover will gradually increase from west to east overnight. Otherwise a dry night is in progress with mins generally in the mid to upper 50s.
A strong, negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move into western New York Monday. Associated surface cold front will enter western New York Monday morning, before reaching central New York by early afternoon. Convection is expected to blossom quickly along the front, with the potential for strong to severe storms looking increasingly favorable, mainly east of the Genesee Valley. Wind profiles becoming increasingly favorable with 0-6km shear values increasing to greater than 40 knots. Instability during the morning hours, as the cold front crosses western New York, will not be as favorable so the severe risk is less here than it will be as the cold front reaches areas east of the Genesee Valley, a bit later in the day after the atmosphere has more time to destabilize. This area has been highlighted by Storm Prediction Center with a slight risk and enhanced risk for severe storms.
Enhanced wording has been added for the convection, especially east of Lake Ontario where Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk for severe weather outlined in their Day 2 outlook.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
A negatively tilted mid-level trough axis will track across the eastern Great Lakes Monday evening. A cold front will be exiting the North Country Monday evening while it's associated surface low moves towards Quebec. Ongoing convection across the North Country will move east and the threat for severe weather will come to an end. Behind the sharp cold front, cold air advection will be ongoing across western and north central NY. Northwest winds are just off parallel to the isotherms so cold air advection will be on the slower side the first half of the night. A secondary cold front will track across the region the second half of the night and colder air filters into the region. Lows Monday night will reach the mid 40s.
The region remains under the mid-level trough Tuesday and another potent shortwave trough will track from southern Ontario to the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. An increase in moisture and increased upward motion will result in cloudy conditions by the afternoon. Showers are possible across the North Country through the afternoon Kept the forecast mainly dry for western NY however wouldn't be surprised if some congested strato-cu and isolated showers form. A west-northwest wind will increase to 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Highs will only reach the mid to upper 50s to low 60s across the lake plains.
An upper level ridge over the Central U.S. will build across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday bringing dry weather. Lows Tuesday night will reach the upper 30s to low 40s. At this time, the surface high is expected to stay west of the region Tuesday night, if it builds further east than lower temperatures are possible. Highs Wednesday will reach the low to mid 60s.
The ridge will build again Wednesday night while warm air advection takes place. Chances for showers increase across western NY overnight. Lows Wednesday night will fall to the low to mid 40s across the North Country to the mid to upper 40s across western and central NY.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Warm air advection is the main story for most of the Long Term Period with above-normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday and summer-like high temperatures Friday and Saturday.
A warm front will likely move through the region Thursday. As zonal flow continues aloft, some showers and storms are possible into Thursday night. The upper level pattern gets a little messy as embedded convectively induced shortwave troughs move around a building ridge near the eastern Great Lakes. Showers and storms are possible especially during Friday afternoon and evening with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. The pattern becomes amplified Saturday as a sharp cold front tracks west to east across the Great Lakes. The chance for showers and storms increases Saturday and Saturday night. Strong storms are possible during this time. The cold front will track across the region by Sunday and mostly dry but cooler conditions will close out the weekend.
Southwest winds will increase somewhat through tonight, bringing a light to moderate chop to Lake Erie.
A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday, bringing strong winds and choppy conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds and waves look to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday behind this cold front.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories