Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
| Winds... Wind Southwest 25 Knots Diminishing To Southwest 10 Near Midnight Then Increasing To North 15 Wednesday Morning. Wind Diminishing To North 10 Wednesday Evening. |
| Waves... Waves 1.5 Metres Subsiding To 1 Near Midnight And To 0.5 Late Overnight. Waves Building To 0.5 To 1 Near Noon Wednesday Then Subsiding To 0.5 Wednesday Evening. |
| Skies... Showers Ending Near Noon Wednesday. |
| Thursday...Winds Northeast 15 Knots. |
| Friday...Winds Northeast 15 Knots Veering To Southeast 20 Late In The Day. |
| Saturday...Winds Southeast 20 Knots. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 736pm EDT Tuesday April 23 2024 Synopsis A wave of low pressure will move over the eastern Great Lakes tonight, followed by a strong cold front Wednesday morning, generating periods of rain across the region. The rain will end from north to south Wednesday afternoon, and may even mix in with a few wet snowflakes before ending across higher terrain. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair dry weather Thursday and Friday, before a few showers return this weekend. Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday, followed by day-to- day warming with readings soaring to well above normal levels by the second half of the weekend. Near Term - Through Wednesday A sharp mid level trough will advance east across the Great Lakes overnight, providing a period of large scale ascent as DPVA and height falls overspread the region. A weak wave of low pressure will move northeast over the eastern Great Lakes overnight, with associated low level flow adjustments aiding in low/mid level convergence and deformation across the area, supporting several hours of widespread rainfall. Radar imagery showing rain rapidly expanding across the region early this evening in response to the arrival of stronger forcing from an approaching wave of low pressure. The incipient airmass ahead of the rain was very dry, so there will be plenty of sub-cloud evaporation through the first hour or two of rainfall, keeping the rain reaching the surface on the light side. Rainfall rates will increase once the low levels saturate by mid evening, with a few pockets of moderate rain expected. The most widespread rain will fall across Western NY through the first half of the night, followed by a brief break in organized rain late tonight. East of Lake Ontario, the most widespread rain will fall from late evening through the overnight. Wavy cold front moves into northern portions of the area early Wednesday morning, then will push southeast across the remainder of the area through the morning hours. The cold front will bring another round of showers to the region Wednesday morning, aided by weak lake induced instability and increasing northerly upslope flow. Decent Cold Air Advection in the wake of the front will cause temperatures to fall from the 40s into the 30s for most areas. Enough moisture will linger briefly in the colder air that precipitation may end as a few wet snowflakes across higher terrain (especially east of Lake Ontario) before rapidly tapering off from north to south from late morning through mid afternoon. May be able to squeeze out a slushy coating across the Tug Hill Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks around late morning just before the precipitation ends. Skies should then rapidly clear from north to south through the afternoon as much drier air builds in, with sunshine likely returning, especially across northern portions of the area. It will be a very chilly day with many area remaining in the 30s to low 40s after peaking in the low to mid 40s to start the day. Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night Broad troughing spread across the East Coast earlier in the week, will begin to pull east into the Atlantic Ocean Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging spread across the upper Midwest fill in across the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the trough. A shortwave trough within the next longwave trough spread across the western half of the CONUS will traverse the Central Plains Friday and Friday night. Looking further into the details, surface high pressure centered over the eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue to dive south into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. This high will then continue to sag south into the Atlantic by Friday night. Overall this will support dry weather Wednesday night through Friday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will support a surface low over the Central Plains Friday evening. As the night progresses, a surface warm front will advance northeastward towards the lower Great Lakes late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Despite the dry weather, conditions will continue to remain on the cool side due to the exiting troughing pattern overhead. Highs Thursday will range in the upper 40s to low 50s. A slight warm up Friday with highs peaking in the low 60s to a few mid 60s across the I-90 corridor along the Lake Erie shoreline of Western New York. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday The main story for the weekend and early next week will be the strong warmup, as well as on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms. On Saturday, a sfc-700mb ridge of high pressure will be well east of the region over New England, while the upper level ridge lags behind to the west. This will allow a warm front associated with a low over the upper Midwest to move out of the Ohio Valley and across the forecast area through the day. Isentropic lift on this wing of warm advection will bring a swath of rain showers to the region west to east. Shower coverage will be highest across WNY in the morning, before this batch of precipitation then slowly falls apart as it traverses eastward, becoming further detached from its parent low and running up against the strong ridge over New England. Temps should be similar to those seen on Friday, generally ranging from the upper 50s to the low/mid 60s. The more pronounced warming trend will come starting Saturday night as the broad low to the west weakens and slides across the upper Great Lakes to Canada. This will cause the overhead upper level ridge to flatten and perhaps allow a few additional showers/tstorms to cross into the region overnight. Thereafter, the synoptic pattern will eventually evolve into something resembling an Omega block, with a stubborn ridge of high pressure across the eastern CONUS flanked by waves of low pressure on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and a closed low across the northwestern Atlantic. Strong anticyclonic flow around the surface high off the East Coast will begin to circulate much warmer air across much of the eastern CONUS including the Great Lakes through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. At this range...it appears low temps Saturday night should range in the 50s, closer to normal daytime highs for late April. Thereafter Sunday and especially Monday will be the warmest days we have seen in quite a while with temps climbing well into the 70s in many areas, possibly even low 80s across the typical warmer spots across the interior Genesee Valley. A cold front should then bring temps back down a few degrees Tuesday, though still remaining warm the 60s and low 70s. While this synoptic pattern lends high confidence in temperatures averaging well above climatological norms, confidence in chances for additional showers and thunderstorms after Saturday remains low. The main uncertainty stems from how the closed low over the Atlantic evolves, as well as the strength/timing of the additional waves of low pressure to the west cresting over the ridge. In general expect shower and thunderstorm chances to roughly follow the diurnal heating trend, being greatest in the afternoon and early evening hours each day, with plenty of dry time mixed in. More widespread showers should arrive with the front on Tuesday though Probability of Precipitation are mainly in Chc range as uncertainty in the timing of the front remains low. Marine Fresh southwesterlies continue through early to mid evening. This would typically favor Small Craft Advisory conditions, but the early season cold dome effect is likely coming into play as model guidance is holding waves down for most areas, however there will still be some decent chop on the waters. The exception remains for the western third of Lake Ontario (W of Hamlin Beach), where a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for that area remains in effect. A wavy cold front will slowly pass through the region tonight. While winds and waves will briefly subside in the process (especially on Lake Ontario), a notable but short-lived increase in northerly winds can be expected on Wednesday. While the fetch will not be overly favorable for significant wave increases, a brief period of moderate northerlies will still generate Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario, and very choppy conditions on Lake Erie. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 5pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ042-045. Small Craft Advisory from 7am to 8pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ043-044. |