Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
| Winds... Wind East 10 Knots Becoming Light Tuesday Evening. |
| Waves... Mainly Ice Covered. |
| Skies... Periods Of Rain And Fog Patches Tuesday Afternoon And Evening. |
| Wednesday...Winds Light. |
| Thursday...Winds Light Becoming East 15 Knots. |
| Friday...Winds Light. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 636pm EST Monday Mar 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for mixed precipitation for the western Southern Tier Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A light wintry mix is expected across the western Southern Tier Tuesday. 2) A series of warmer systems will bring widespread rain and hydrological concerns later this week. 3) Springlike warmth will move into the region this week and likely continue into next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A light wintry mix is expected across the western Southern Tier Tuesday. The mid-level flow will remain quasi-zonal through Tuesday, with a weak shortwave trough deepening slightly as it moves from the Ohio Valley into the New England. A warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley will lift northward while an inverted trough persists across the eastern Great Lakes region tonight. Increasing mid-level southerly flow and modest moisture across the warm front will support light precipitation moving into western NY Tuesday morning. Surface temperatures will rise the second half of the night, however temperatures are expected to remain below freezing as light precipitation moves into the western Southern Tier. While the coverage looks spotty due to modest moisture overcoming dry air, thermal profiles show a period of freezing drizzle, sleet or freezing rain across the western southern Tier Tuesday morning. Adjacent locations in southern Erie, Wyoming, and Livingston counties may see a brief period of mixed precipitation, however confidence is low. The March sun angle will mitigate most concerns Tuesday afternoon, with only pockets of freezing rain possible as precipitation becomes rain. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for eastern Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties from 7am to 4pm Tuesday. A glaze to a few hundredths of an ice is expected across the western Southern Tier. Farther north across western NY, mostly light rain is expected as light precipitation moves northward, however some sleet can't be ruled out. Colder air will reside east of Lake Ontario and snow is the main precipitation type before lower elevations change to plain rain. A coating to an inch of snow is expected across the southern Tug Hill region and western Dacks through Tuesday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will move east and push moistures and forcing east of the forecast area Tuesday night. Light precipitation will come to an end by Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of warmer systems will bring widespread rain and hydrological concerns later this week. A progressive 1026mb surface high will shift east across NYS Wednesday, moving off the Northeast coast Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves will ripple across a stalled frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley, causing it to gradually lift back northwards as a warm front. The northward extent of the moisture and isentropic lift will likely be subdued by the passing high, keeping much of the area north of the Finger Lakes dry through Thursday morning. Clearer skies and northeast flow may cause near or sub-freezing air to reach as far south as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. This does introduce some minor ptype concerns though thinking if precipitation does reach that far north, slightly warmer temperatures should correspondingly accompany it. In any case, rainfall across the southern zones will be minor with the initial waves (up to ~0.25" in the Southern Tier) through Wednesday night. It is with the more robust shortwave and attendant surface low moving into the lower Great Lakes that more substantial areawide rainfall is anticipated later Thursday through Thursday night. Long range guidance remains at odds on the details though additional Pacific-based shortwave energy will keep the pattern active through at least Saturday, though possibly into early next week as well, with thermal profiles ensuring rain is the dominant ptype. Not out of the question that depending on the timing and amount of forcing present with some of these systems that we see a few thunderstorms as well. NBM probabilities remain high (50-80%) for 3-day rainfall of at least 1" by Sunday morning for WNY at the Tug Hill region. These probabilities have notably trended higher for the Genesee Valley but still remain lower (30-40%). The potential for higher amounts (2-3" or more) is also worth watching, though uncertainty is higher in this range especially given the potential for convection. This rainfall combined with accelerated runoff from snowmelt will cause rises on area waterways later in the week. MMEFS forecasts indicate minimal concerns through Thursday before steady rises to at least Action stage on multiple area creeks and rivers, namely those north of the Allegany River basin, with several potentially reaching or exceeding flood stage. Confidence remains low in specific impacts given uncertainty in the long range Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts and placement, though ensemble forecasts indicate the the creeks in the Buffalo area, in the Genesee River Valley basin, and the Black River will need to be closely watched as we progress through the week. Some of the slower responding creeks/rivers could remain elevated into early next week. In addition, while the Buffalo Area creeks are now generally free of thicker ice, there may still be some problematic ice on other creeks and streams in the CWA (County Warning Area) that may further break up and move in response to the rainfall, snowmelt, and warmer temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 3... Springlike warmth will move into the region this week and likely continue into next week. The longwave pattern across the continent will evolve throughout the week to become increasingly favorable for early (meteorological) spring warmth. A ridging pattern out west will then shift eastward as Pacific-based troughing moves inland, with slow height rises gradually translating downstream to replace the zonal flow. This may briefly get disrupted by a passing shortwave Thursday night into Friday, though a quick return to strong southerly flow will cause temperatures to continue warming areawide. The peak of the warmth will likely be on Saturday timeframe when highs will reach well into the 60s for much of the area, possibly even the low 70s in some of the typical warmer areas like Dansville. The strong offshore ridging pattern could have a bit of staying power beyond the 7-day forecast, as CPC's 6-10 Day Outlook strongly favors above normal temperatures for the region. Marine High pressure will move east across New England today, and off the east coast tonight with a period of light winds and diminishing wave action. South winds will increase on the eastern half of Lake Ontario tonight through Tuesday as the high drifts off the New England coast and low pressure approaches from the west. This will produce a period of choppy conditions at the northeast end of the lake, but winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds are then expected to be mainly light with low wave action from later Tuesday through Wednesday. Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7am to 4pm EST Tuesday for NYZ019>021. Marine None. |