Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
| Winds... Wind West 25 Knots Backing To Southwest 25 Near Midnight Then Increasing To Southwest 30 Early Monday Morning. |
| Waves... Waves 1.5 Metres Building To 2 Late Overnight And To 3 Monday Morning. Waves Subsiding To 2 Monday Evening. |
| Skies... Scattered Flurries Monday. |
| Tuesday...Winds Southwest 20 Knots Increasing To Southwest 25 In The Morning. |
| Wednesday...Winds Southwest 25 Knots Veering To Northwest 20. |
| Thursday...Winds Northwest 20 Knots Backing To Southwest 20 Late In The Day. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 849pm EST Sunday Jan 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Winter Weather Advisory for areas east of Lake Erie has been cancelled. Lake effect snow showers have diminished to a few scattered flurries across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie with minimal additional accumulation. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario will quickly diminish overnight, with winds gradually diminishing. 2) A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and Monday night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest accumulations. Winds will become gusty again Monday, especially northeast of Lake Erie. 3) Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed precipitation. KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario will quickly diminish overnight, with winds gradually diminishing. Lake effect snow east of Lake Erie has rapidly diminished this evening, with just a few scattered flurries left across the higher terrain east of the lake. Additional accumulations will be minimal overnight, so the Winter Weather Advisory for counties east of Lake Erie has been cancelled. Snow is diminishing in intensity east of Lake Ontario as deeper moisture and synoptic scale ascent move east of the area. The weakening trend will continue through late evening, with just a few light snow showers left after midnight mainly southeast of the lake. WNW winds remain gusty this evening, in the 30-40 mph range in most areas. Winds will gradually diminish overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat across the eastern Great Lakes. Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect east of Lake Ontario through early Tuesday morning when taking into consideration the additional snowfall expected there Monday and Monday night. See Key Message 2. KEY MESSAGE 2...A clipper low will enhance lake snows Monday and Monday night, mainly east of Lake Ontario with additional modest accumulations. Winds will become gusty again Monday, especially northeast of Lake Erie. A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes, reaching the eastern Great Lakes Monday. Warm air advection will be found ahead of this shortwave, making poorer conditions for lake effect snow, though this feature will bring back ample moisture supporting snow growth. Temperatures at 850 mb around -10C over Lake Ontario will be just cold enough to allow for a band of lake enhanced snow, which combined with upslope terrain east of Lake Ontario, will bring additional snow accumulation on the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foot hills. Lower terrain will remain with much less snow accumulation. East of Lake Erie temperatures of 850 mb will be too warm for a robust lake response with the -6 to -7C air just cold enough for a few lake enhanced snow showers, combined with general lift ahead of the shortwave snow that around an inch of snow will accumulate east and northeast of Lake Erie, including the Buffalo Metro area. It is possible that the warmer environment the snow DGZ will be elevated, possibly above the layer of low level moisture, which may allow for the snow to taper off with a little freezing drizzle Monday evening and overnight. The temporary lull in winds late tonight and early Monday morning will not last, with the clipper tightening the pressure gradient and bringing gusty winds again from late morning through early evening Monday. The strongest winds will be found northeast of Lake Erie, with gusts in the 35-45 mph range across the Niagara Frontier. Gusts will be in the 25-35 mph range elsewhere. KEY MESSAGE 3...Storm system to pass across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Thursday resulting in another round of gusty winds and mixed precipitation. Ahead of a slightly deepening surface low, forecast models still have around a 50 knots low level jet across the area Tuesday night, with the jet supporting warming in the lower atmosphere. NBM probabilities have a 40 to 50 percent chance for southwest wind gusts to 30 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline and across the metro Buffalo/Niagara Falls area Tuesday evening. The warmer temperatures will support mainly rain Tuesday night. Overall, rainfall will be light to modest, with lake enhanced and upslope terrain effects possibly yielding up to a third of an inch of liquid before a change over back to snow later Wednesday. Thus hydro concerns will remain low. Light rain and higher terrain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday will become all snow Wednesday evening following the passage of a strong cold front. Models continue to have disagreement with the depth and placement of a closed low within an upper level trough to our west Thursday and into Friday. Greater certainty in the return to cold air with good agreement that 850 hPa temperatures will drop 10 or so degrees behind the cold front into Thursday, which could lead to some lake snows on a northerly flow. Dry, arctic air will not support any significant snow accumulation for the lake snows. Marine Gales have ended on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with winds continuing to diminish overnight on both lakes. Winds will increase again Monday as a clipper passes just north of the lakes, with sustained winds increasing back to near 30 knots on both lakes. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist through Tuesday morning on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST Monday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST Monday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Tuesday for LOZ044- 045. |