Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
|Winds... Wind North 15 Knots Diminishing To Northeast 10 Overnight Then Becoming Light Near Noon Thursday. Wind Becoming Northeast 10 Thursday Evening.|
|Waves... Waves 0.5 To 1 Metre Subsiding To 0.5 Or Less Thursday Morning.|
|Skies... Scattered Showers Ending This Evening With A Risk Of Waterspouts.|
|Friday...Winds Light Becoming Northeast 15 Knots In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday...Winds Light Increasing To Northeast 20 Knots Late In The Day.|
|Sunday...Winds Northeast 25 Knots.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022
Showers will continue across the area for one more day today, especially south and southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The coverage of showers will diminish this afternoon tonight. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes Thursday and set the stage for an extended stretch of dry weather from Thursday through the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Sharp trough crossing the region early this morning, will be southeast of the region by 12z. Shower activity will persist today driven by moist cyclonic flow and over-lake instability. Coverage of showers should lessen during the afternoon as deeper moisture pulls away. Extensive cloud cover will remain. Cool temperatures will continue, with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lower 50s on the hills.
A few stray showers still possible south of the lakes tonight, but for the most part just looking for clouds to hold in. Cloud cover will help keep temperatures in the 40s, although a few upper 30s will be possible across interior portions of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Dry weather expected to close out the week as broad surface high pressure under a mid-level ridge expands across the Great Lakes.
With a cool cyclonic flow still across the region, lake effect clouds and possibly a few rain showers will linger south of the lakes Thursday morning. Large scale subsidence and rapidly depleting synoptic moisture will then fizzle out any showers and bring clearing skies by the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be another cool day with daytime highs topping out in the 50s.
With calm winds, clear skies, and high pressure squarely overhead Thursday night the stage will be set for a night of excellent radiational cooling. Low temperatures will range from the low 40s near lakeshores to the mid/low 30s further inland. Patchy frost development looks likely across the higher terrain areas in the western Southern Tier and on the Tug Hill Plateau, but could potentially be more widespread. Patchy fog development is also possible in the Southern Tier river valleys.
Dry weather continues for Friday and Friday night with high pressure settled across the region. As the remnants of Hurricane Ian slowly drift northward into the Mid-Atlantic states, some extra high cloud cover may encroach on the area from the south later Friday afternoon. Despite the chilly start to the day, daytime temperatures Friday will be warmer than the previous few days, mainly topping out in the low 60s. Nighttime lows Friday night will dip into the mid/lower 40s, some upper 30s possible up on the Tug Hill.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
A generally quiet and seasonable pattern remains in place through the period with broad surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada, and the remnants of Hurricane Ian remaining well to our south. The overhead mid-level ridge will briefly flatten early next week as a weak cold front drops through the region, which may allow for some weak moisture advection and possibly a few showers, though the period still looks to stay largely dry. That being said, there may be some additional cloud cover with the passing front as well as pesky high clouds extending northward from the remnants of Hurricane Ian.
Elevated northwest winds today will maintain lower end Small Craft Advisory conditions through the first half of the day today. Conditions will gradually improve this afternoon and tonight.
A very unstable airmass will remain over the lakes today, but the northwest wind direction will reduce the chances of strong convergence zones developing, which will likely limit the chance of waterspouts.
Quiet conditions will return across the lower Great Lakes for the Thursday through Saturday period as high pressure builds in.
By late in the weekend, we will watch wind and wave trends as northeasterly winds could increase to near 20 knots with the remnants of "Ian" approaching from the south, and surface high pressure residing to the north.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ043-044.