Marine Weather Net

Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast


WINDS

E
WINDS
10
INCREASING

WAVES

SKIES


SHOWERS
THIS
EVENING

SATURDAY

NW
WINDS
15
DIMINISHING

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
Environment Canada Forecast Issued: 300 AM EST Thu Feb 09 2023

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
Winds... Wind East 10 Knots Increasing To East 15 Early This Morning Then Veering To Southeast 20 Near Noon. Wind Increasing To South 30 This Afternoon And To Southwest 40 Early This Evening. Wind Diminishing To Southwest 30 Friday Morning And To West 20 Near Noon Friday. Wind Veering To Northwest 20 Friday Evening.
Waves... Waves 0.5 Metres Building To 2 Early This Evening And To 3 To 4 Late This Evening. Waves Subsiding To 2 Friday Morning And To 1 To 1.5 Friday Afternoon.
Skies... Rain Changing To Scattered Showers This Evening And Ending Friday Morning. Scattered Flurries Friday Afternoon And Evening.
Saturday...Winds Northwest 15 Knots Diminishing To Light In The Morning Then Becoming Southwest 15 In The Afternoon.
Sunday...Winds Southwest 15 Knots Diminishing To Light.
Monday...Winds Light Becoming Southwest 15 Knots.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
100am EST Thu Feb 9 2023

Synopsis
A relatively deep storm system passing to our west on Thursday will generate a general steady rain across the region while also ushering in notably milder air with widespread 50s over the western counties. As is usually the case in these scenarios...strong winds on the backside of the system will result in potentially damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph Thursday night for a large portion of the area. Friday will feature a rude return to more typical February weather with temperatures mainly in the 30s.

Near Term - Through Thursday
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT... The most significant system of the week will cross the region Thursday and Thursday night with the main impacts being widespread rain Thursday...then strong to potentially damaging winds late Thursday and Thursday night.

A strong southern stream shortwave of Pacific origin will cross the mid Mississippi Valley early Thursday morning then will reach the central Great Lakes Thursday evening before moving into Quebec by Friday morning. A moderately strong surface low will take a similar track, passing by to our west and north. Both the mid level feature and surface low will start to weaken as they enter Canada late Thursday night.

Wind... Upgraded the watch to a High Wind WARNING for Thursday night, and moved up the start time for Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties to account for near-warning level downslope winds.

This is a challenging forecast because peak wind gusts will likely be right at warning threshold. Cold air advection will be modest behind this system and the isallobaric fall/rise couplet passes by to our northwest. These factors suggest that winds aloft will not fully mix to the surface. However, model forecast wind fields have been very consistent with around 55 kts at 925mb and 60 kts at 850 mb northeast of Lake Erie. While the low is only about 995 mb, it takes a climatologically favorable track for causing high winds in our area. Taking into account the typical funnelling which occurs across the lake plains and the passage of a frontal boundary which could result in a burst of winds have ample confidence to upgrade the watch to a warning. Expecting peak wind gusts around 60 mph. For most areas it will be a relatively short event, only lasting 3 to 6 hours during Thursday night.

On Thursday, southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with a favorable set up for downslope winds to gust to 50-55 mph off the Chautauqua Ridge. Moved up the start time for these zones to account for the risk of strong downslope winds.

Outside of these areas, Thursday night will be windy across the entire region. Since the low will be weaker by late Thursday night, expecting advisory level winds gusting 50 to 55 mph in Jefferson County. Elsewhere, could see gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range, mainly with the frontal passage. It's possible wind advisories will be needed for the rest of the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley for Thursday night, but lower confidence so did not issue this yet.

Rainfall... Thursday...widespread rain will move into Western NY early in the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by late morning to early afternoon. The southern track of this system will allow it to capture a plume of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values rising to over 1.0". The combination of quality moisture and strong isentropic upglide and moisture transport enhanced by a strong 60+ knot SSW low level jet will support an area of widespread rain moving from southwest to northeast across the area Thursday. Overall, expect rainfall to average 0.50"-0.75" for most of the area, a little lower across the western Finger Lakes. This will certainly be enough to make the ground very muddy, but not enough to raise any flooding concerns.

The warm sector of the system will arrive Thursday afternoon in Western NY and Thursday evening across the Finger Lakes and Central NY, with the steady rain tapering off to scattered showers. Following the warm sector dry slot, expect another band of showers along and ahead of the cold front to move into Western NY by early evening, then move east across the rest of the area through the early overnight hours.

Temperatures and Freezing Rain Potential... Temperatures will drop a bit below freezing during the first half of the night, but will then rise as southerly winds increase late. Model guidance continues to suggest most, if not all of the rain Thursday will fall as plain rain. There's still a small risk for a brief period of freezing rain from Wayne County to the Eastern Lake Ontario region right at the onset Thursday morning. The window for freezing rain in these colder areas is very brief, with temperatures soaring quickly through the day. Downsloping from strong southerly winds will result in warmer temperatures across the lake plains with highs in the lower 50s across the lake plains from Rochester west, and upper 40s at most other locations. The only exception is Lewis County where it will be cooler with highs around 40.

Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night
Friday the initial low over southern Quebec will weaken and give way to secondary triple point/coastal cyclogenesis over the Canadian Maritimes, allowing for winds to diminish further across the eastern Great Lakes. A west/southwesterly flow of modestly colder air will support some limited lake enhancement and upslope east of the lakes. Surface temperatures look marginal enough in the 30s that any wet snow accumulations should stay mostly confined to the higher terrain areas east of the lakes. Minor accumulations up to an inch are possible across the Southern Tier and Boston Hills on Friday, with an inch or two across the Tug Hill.

Friday night a mid level shortwave and secondary cold front will move southeast across the Great Lakes, introducing enough cold air to support at least some lake response. Expect a band of lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario in the evening to move south overnight, breaking into multiple bands as it does so. With a brief uptick in available synoptic moisture and EQLs, could see a quick inch or so east/southeast of the lake...Though still a bit of uncertainty as the primary band will not be stationary, the window for favorable lake effect will be small, and surface temperatures will be marginal in the first half of the night. In general, only very minor accumulations are expected off the lakes Friday night. Lows by daybreak Saturday will be in the 20s, with some readings in the teens east of Lake Ontario.

A few flurries or light snow showers may linger into Saturday morning. Surface high pressure ridging into the eastern Great Lakes will then shut down the last of the lake response, leaving the region dry from late morning onward. Skies are expected to clear out with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon, with temperatures topping out around climatological norms in the low 30s. Tranquil weather continues Saturday night as temperatures dip to the low/mid 20s, with teens across the Tug Hill and Western Dacks.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
High pressure will provide fair and dry weather areawide on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 30s east of Lake Ontario to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Another fine day will unfold across the area on Monday. Mild southwest flow will help to push temperatures well into the 40s everywhere. We might even see some readings near 50F or a tad bit higher in some locations.

After Monday...12Z guidance is not quite as clear when a weak cold front will cross the Lower Lakes. Some guidance packages push it through Monday night while others hold off until Tuesday. Even so...it does show some minimal cooling behind the front. Have reflected this in daytime highs for Tuesday being a bit cooler. After that...it looks like the cooler air mass won't last long. A weak low pressure system will begin to draw up a milder airmass and moisture with chance of rain increasing on Wednesday.

Otherwise...no real signs of winter for the time being, at least not until after the middle of the month.

Marine
A strong area of low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes late Thursday to southern Quebec by Friday morning. This system will bring gale force winds to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from late Thursday through early Friday. Small craft headlines may be needed just before this gale goes into effect for the southwesterly flow which will develop ahead of the boundary on Thursday.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...High Wind Warning from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for NYZ001>003-010>012. Wind Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am EST Friday for NYZ007. High Wind Warning from 10am this morning to 7am EST Friday for NYZ019-085.

Marine
Gale Warning from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for LOZ042-062. Gale Warning from 10pm this evening to 10am EST Friday for LOZ043>045-063>065.



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