Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
|Winds... Wind Southeast 10 Knots Becoming Light This Morning Then Becoming Northeast 10 This Evening. Wind Becoming Light Overnight. Wind Light Saturday.|
|Waves... Waves 0.5 Metres Or Less.|
|Skies... Scattered Showers Ending This Morning.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
418am EDT Fri September 29 2023
A weak upper level low will pass just south of our area, bringing a few showers or sprinkles to a few spots today. High pressure then re-establishes itself across the region, resulting in another stretch of dry weather and above normal temperatures which will last through the first half of next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Early this morning radar shows a few scattered showers across Western NY. These are just ahead of an upper level low which will move slowly from west to east across the area today. Most of the lift is above 500 mb from the trough and a diffluent flow aloft, with plenty of sub-cloud evaporation due to drier air near the surface. Any showers will only produce light amounts, generally only a few hundredths of an inch, if anything at all. Widely scattered showers will end from west to east today, following the progression of the upper low. Cloud cover will be slow to clear out with the upper low passing through, but there may be a partial clearing across the lake plains this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 60s across the interior to the lower 70s across the lake plains where there may be some breaks of sunshine late.
Surface high pressure will gradually expand across the area tonight, as the upper low moves across New Jersey. This will support a gradual clearing from northwest to southeast. After skies clear, there will be ample lingering moisture for fog to develop in the river valleys.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
While not too far away a coastal system will continue to produce heavy rains on Saturday across southeast NY and southern New England, strong high pressure will re-establish itself across the lower Great Lakes for this weekend, bringing ideal weather to western and northcentral NY to end the month of September and kick off October. Already above average temperatures to start the weekend, will continue a day to day warming trend. This will translate to highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday and mid to upper 70s on Sunday, with a few 80 degree readings not out of the question in the traditionally warmest locations.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Strong high pressure will dominate this entire period, keeping the warm and dry conditions intact. Speaking of warmth, a ~587 decameter upper level ridge will bring mid summer-like warmth to the area. As for the next chance of precipitation, a large upper level trough will dig southward across the upper Mississippi valley/upper Great Lakes toward the tail end of the period, with an associated surface cold front moving east into the vicinity of the central Great Lakes. Even the most progressive 29/00Z guidance suite only has the eastward extent of any shower activity remaining just west of our area by late Thursday. As alluded to in the previous long range discussion, guidance tends to be too progressive in the longer range when under a highly amplified pattern. That said, it still appears a cooler and more unsettled pattern may be in the offing as we head toward the tail end of the work week into next weekend. Until then, get out and enjoy!
As mentioned above, expect very warm conditions with daytime highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s through the period, some 15 to even 20 degrees above average in some cases. The traditionally warmer spots will likely reach the mid 80s, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Airmass will not be as dry as last week, so diurnal range will not be as great. Combine this with an already warmer airmass in place, lows will only fall back into the 50s to low 60s for the entire work week.
East winds will increase again on Lake Ontario this afternoon, but not to the extent of the past few days, with winds and waves expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, with light winds generally 10 knots or less and waves 2 feet or less.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories