Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
| Winds... Wind Light Increasing To Southwest 15 Knots This Morning And To Southwest 20 Early This Evening. Wind Diminishing To Light Near Midnight Then Increasing To East 15 Near Noon Friday. Wind Increasing To Southwest 20 Friday Evening. |
| Waves... Over Open Water Waves 0.5 Metres Or Less Building To 1 Near Noon And To 1.5 This Evening. Waves Subsiding To 0.5 Or Less Overnight Then Building To 0.5 To 1 Friday Afternoon. |
| Skies... Rain Friday Afternoon And Evening. |
| Saturday...Winds Southwest 25 Knots Diminishing To Light In The Afternoon Then Becoming Northeast 15 Late In The Day. |
| Sunday...Winds Northeast 15 Knots Increasing To South 20 Late In The Day. |
| Monday...Winds Southwest 25 Knots. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 352am EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Synopsis High pressure will build across the area through this morning... before drifting east across eastern New York and New England this afternoon and tonight. This will provide us with mainly dry weather today...with a passing weak cold front then bringing a brief round of rain and snow showers to areas east of Lake Ontario this evening. Elongated low pressure will then extend eastward across our area later Friday through the weekend...bringing more widespread unsettled weather that will feature periods of rain for most areas...and possibly some mixed precipitation across the North Country. Near Term - Through Friday Surface-based ridging initially draped across our region this morning will slowly drift east across eastern New York and New England this afternoon and tonight. Meanwhile...another northern stream shortwave and its attendant weak/relatively moisture-starved cold front will quickly dive southeastward across Ontario and Quebec...with this next surface boundary crossing our region this evening. The approach of this system may help to trigger a few widely scattered rain showers across the western Southern Tier late this afternoon into early this evening...with the North Country likely seeing a brief round of scattered to numerous rain and snow showers this evening owing to its closer proximity to the base of the supporting shortwave...somewhat better moisture...and some modest upsloping. Across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondack foothills...this could lead to some fresh snow accumulations of under an inch. Prior to the arrival of this system...expect largely dry conditions today with warm air advection helping high temps to rebound into the upper 30s to mid 40s east of Lake Ontario and to the mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere...with a brief period of breezy conditions (featuring wind gusts up to 30-35 mph) likely across far western New York later this afternoon into early this evening right out ahead of the surface cold front. Conditions will then dry out again later tonight as a narrow wedge of high pressure builds in behind the departing front...with overnight lows ranging in the upper 20s to lower 30s south of Lake Ontario...and in the mid to upper 20s across the North Country. On Friday the narrow wedge of high pressure will drift eastward into New England...while broad low pressure over the Plains states elongates and extends northeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs...the surface warm front attendant to the low will snake its way eastward across the southern Great Lakes...with this boundary reaching western New York by later Friday afternoon. The corresponding increase in moisture and isentropic upglide will bring thickening clouds to our area...along with increasing chances of rain showers to areas south of Lake Ontario during Friday afternoon. This will particularly be the case across far western New York...where showers should become likely (60 percent chance) by late afternoon. Otherwise we can expect a decent north-south gradient in temperatures during Friday...with highs ranging from around 40 across the North Country to the lower 50s across the southern Tier and interior Finger Lakes. Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday Confluent flow of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream this period, that become zonal flow over our region, will allow for a wavy frontal boundary that will bring sharp differences in surface temperature and weather type to our forecast area. Surface low Friday night will ride along a warm frontal boundary that will extend across Lake Ontario. Southerly flow within the warm sector Friday night will maintain mild temperatures and just plain rain showers developing for WNY, while northeast flow and a narrow warm nose aloft will transition snow to a freezing rain or a cold rain scenario for counties east of Lake Ontario. By Saturday morning the warm nose aloft should be sufficiently deep enough to allow for just freezing rain or plain rain east of Lake Ontario. The northeast flow will lock temperatures around the freezing mark Saturday within the Saint Lawrence Valley which could prolong the freezing rain. As the low shifts eastward, a narrow bubble of high pressure will push the frontal boundary southward for Saturday night. While this may alleviate the freezing rain threat for the north country some, the northeast flow Saturday night south of Lake Ontario, with near freezing air temperatures trapped north of the escarpment may allow for some pockets of freezing rain. By Sunday a deeper surface low to the west, and departure of the bubble of surface high pressure over Canada will allow for the frontal boundary to push northward, possibly such that air temperatures will reach into the 40s for the SLV. This will end the freezing rain event for the eastern Lake Ontario region. All told several tenths of an inch of ice, especially for the SLV, is possible from later Friday night through Sunday morning. Meanwhile south of the frontal boundary a mild southerly flow will send temperatures into the 50s and 60s Saturday, with potential for a few 70s Sunday. Greatest uncertainty to air temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be the NYS Thruway and points northward, within the vicinity of the frontal boundary. A 60 to 65 knot LLJ at 2-3K feet may bring strong wind gusts to the hill tops, and possibly the lake plain of WNY Saturday. Shallow mixing heigheights with mostly cloudy skies will limit the very strong gusts from reaching the surface, though some breaks of sunshine near the state line and Southern Tier may allow for gusts to reach into the 30 if not 40 mph range Saturday. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Wednesday Sunday night mild air will linger over our region with showers, and potentially a few WNY thunderstorms on MUCAPE values of 200 to 400 J/KG. A lot of uncertainty to the temperatures Sunday night through Monday. While thermal profiles will be above freezing, supporting just plain rain showers, there is a spread among the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles of 25 to 30 degrees. A sharp cold front will plow across our region either late Sunday night or Monday, sending temperatures back into the 20s and 30s, with rain ending with a little snow. Rain (and eastern Lake Ontario snowmelt) through the weekend and into Monday will give rises to area creeks and rivers. The ensemble river forecasts of the GEFS and NAEFS suggest these creeks and rivers, both the Buffalo Metro creeks, Genesee River watershed and the Black River east of Lake Ontario, should remain within their banks, though high flows are anticipated early next week. Dry air Monday night and Tuesday will limit the lake effect response, with areas outside lake clouds sunny Tuesday. The next system from the west will approach our region later Wednesday. Marine With winds and waves continuing to diminish across Lake Ontario... have cancelled the remaining Small Craft Advisory for the southeastern portion of the lake. Expect this trend to continue through the morning as a ridge of high pressure slides across the area. Another cold frontal passage will then bring another uptick in winds late today and tonight...which has necessitated the issuance of another brief (6-12 hour) round of Small Craft Advisories. These will be followed by another ridge of high pressure and a return to quieter conditions later tonight and Friday morning...before freshening easterlies develop across Lake Ontario Friday afternoon out ahead of an approaching warm front. These may eventually require the issuance of another Small Craft Advisory for southwestern portions of the lake for later Friday afternoon and Friday evening. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 11pm EDT this evening for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 5am EDT Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 8am EDT Friday for LOZ043>045. |