Lake Erie - Eastern Canadian Waters Marine Forecast
| Winds... Wind West 20 Knots Diminishing To West 15 Near Noon Then Veering To Northwest 20 Early This Evening. Wind Backing To West 20 Near Midnight Then To Southwest 25 Tuesday Evening. |
| Waves... Waves 2 Metres Subsiding To 1 This Afternoon Then Building To 1.5 This Evening. Waves Building To 2 Overnight. |
| Skies... Scattered Flurries Ending Near Midnight. Scattered Flurries Tuesday. Visibility 1 Mile Or Less In Flurries. |
| Wednesday...Winds Southwest 25 Knots Increasing To Southwest 35 Late In The Day. |
| Thursday...Winds Southwest 35 Knots Diminishing To Northwest 30 Late In The Day. |
| Friday...Winds Northwest 20 Knots. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 622am EST Monday Dec 2 2024 Synopsis Moderate to locally heavy lake effect snow will continue through Tuesday across the western Southern Tier southeast of Lake Erie with significant additional accumulations. Bands of light to moderate snow will also continue southeast of Lake Ontario. Elsewhere, expect a few light snow showers at times through Tuesday. Lake effect snow will then move quickly northward later Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing a quick burst of snow to areas northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Low pressure will then pass just north of the area, bringing a general area of snow showers, gusty winds, and blowing snow later Wednesday through Thursday, with locally heavier lake effect snow again east of the lakes. Near Term - Through Tuesday The deep longwave trough and associated cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft will continue to support more lake effect snow today through Tuesday. The setup has now changed, with boundary layer flow veering to the northwest this morning, evolving the setup away from long lake axis bands and towards a shorter fetch, less intense scenario. Off Lake Erie... The lake effect snow is in the process of adjusting to the new northwest flow direction. Most of the snow will focus on Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties today through Tuesday. An upstream connection to Lake Huron is becoming established this morning, and will continue to meander across the western Southern Tier today through Tuesday, locally enhancing the snowfall. Snow intensity will not be as great as the past few days, but still could occasionally reach 1-2" per hour where the Lake Huron connection is superimposed on upslope areas of the Chautauqua Ridge. Addtional accumulations today through Tuesday will still add up to impressive amounts given the persistence of the favorable setup. Expect another 12-20" of additional accumulation across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties over the next 36 hours. The heaviest snow from this point forward in this northwest flow regime will focus across the higher terrain inland from the lake, with much less along the immediate shoreline including the NYS Thruway corridor. Off Lake Ontario... The strong single band that was east of the lake for the past few days continues to sink slowly southward and weaken early this morning as boundary layer flow veers over the lake. A few other bands of snow showers will continue to brush the south shore of the lake this morning from the Rochester area westward, generally to the north of the NY Thruway. The main band of snow will move a little farther south this morning, then focus mainly on portions of Wayne and northern Cayuga counties today through Tuesday. While the band of snow will remain in this area for an extended period of time, the intensity of the band will wax and wane multiple times. The more organized snow this morning will likely weaken by later this morning, and may even end completely for a few hours. This will be followed by several more periods of snow showers later today through the first half of Tuesday, with each possibly producing 1-3" accumulations locally. Additional accumulations today through Tuesday may reach 4-7" in a few locations where the various batches of snow repeat over the same area. With this in mind, extended the Winter Weather Advisory for Wayne and northern Cayuga counties through 18Z Tuesday. Farther west, occasional bands of snow showers will continue southeast of Lake Ontario today through Tuesday, with local minor accumulations at times from just east of Niagara Falls and Buffalo to the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Some of the eastern suburbs of Rochester near Irondequoit Bay may see 2-4" of additional accumulation in several small batches today through Tuesday. Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday An upper level ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday night. A cold, westerly flow will maintain the chance for lake effect snow showers across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties and the southern shore of Lake Ontario. The flow will veer to the southwest as warm air advection begins across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Lake effect snow showers will likely consolidate in an organized band while moving north across the Buffalo Metro and Northtowns and near Watertown. Forecast soundings show deep moisture northeast of both Lakes which may produce a period 1-3 inches just in time for the morning commute. Low temperatures will reach the 20s to the teens east of Lake Ontario. A 50kt low-level jet will enter the forecast area Wednesday. The lake effect snow showers will move north of western and north- central NY. This will give the area a brief break from lake effect, however there is a low chance for light snow showers from the ongoing warm air advection across the region. This should only amount to flurries to light snow showers mainly from the Finger Lakes region into north central NY Wednesday afternoon. Conditions quickly deteriorate Wednesday evening as a deep area of low pressure approaches from northern Ontario Province. A robust shortwave trough will lag behind the surface low and deep moisture and strong dynamics will move into the eastern Great Lakes region. A cold front will swiftly move across the forecast area overnight. Cold air advection will drop 850mb temperatures back down to -12C and lake enhanced snow showers will develop across western NY Wednesday night and enter north central NY late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A tight pressure gradient aloft will maintain strong winds aloft and gusty conditions are expected behind the cold front late Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty winds and snow showers will likely result in areas of blowing snow. Forecast snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible east of the Lakes. The combination of snow and gusty winds may result in winter weather headlines into Thursday. Cold, northwest flow will support blustery weather across the forecast area Thursday. A secondary cold front may support a period of snow squalls while lake effect snows persist east of the Lakes through the day. Below normal temperatures will continue across the forecast area through the period. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday The core of the coldest air of the season will move overhead Thursday night through Friday. Cold, northwest flow will maintain chances for lake effect snow showers through Friday night before drier air and subsidence moves into the region. Surface high pressure will likely move south of the region into this weekend. There are some signals that a shortwave trough and associated weak area of low pressure may move across the Great Lakes region this weekend. The current consensus is that most of the activity would stay north of the forecast area, however this could trend southward with time. There are low chances for rain and snow showers through the weekend. Well below normal temperatures are forecast Thursday night through Saturday night. There could be the beginnings Sunday into Monday but confidence is low that will materialize. Marine West to northwest winds will continue to diminish today on Lake Ontario, with Small Craft Advisory conditions ending early this morning. Choppy conditions will then continue today through Tuesday, but winds and waves will generally run a little below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds and waves will stay a little higher on Lake Erie, close to Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Winds will increase again on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Tuesday night ahead of the next system. A strong area of low pressure will then pass just north of the Great Lakes later Wednesday through Thursday. This system may bring a period of gales to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario later Wednesday through Thursday night. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Tuesday for NYZ004-005. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7pm EST Tuesday for NYZ019-020. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. |