Lake Erie - Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border (LEZ061) Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. A Slight Chance Of Rain Showers And Thunderstorms Late. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tonight...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast. A Chance Of Rain Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 1 To 2 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet, Then Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 643am EDT Thu April 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood Watch for southern Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario counties and the western Southern Tier has been cancelled. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and Friday, but additional flooding is not expected. 2) Increasing confidence in another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. KEY MESSAGE 1...Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today and Friday, but additional flooding is not expected. Frontal boundary to our south will lift back northward as a warm front today. Scattered showers will develop with the approach of the front, mainly this afternoon. Marginal instability could support a low chance of thunderstorms across western New York. Warm front will continue to push through tonight and Friday as a shortwave trough approaches the region. Additional showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible through the period. Basin rainfall average generally less than a quarter inch Thursday through Friday, with any additional creek or river flooding unlikely. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing confidence in another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Saturday will send a cold front through the region Saturday night. Deep plume of Gulf moisture working northward ahead of the front will support a period of widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Precipitable water values nearing 1.5 inches suggesting the potential for heavy rain. Marine Fresh to strong east-northeast winds will continue on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through today. This will lead to a round of small craft advisory conditions. Following the passage of a warm front, freshening southerlies appear likely across the eastern portion of Lake Ontario tonight, and may require a Small Craft Advisory. Elevated southwest winds expected Friday. Otherwise, the next period of concern will be Saturday night into Monday, as a cold front ushers in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time period. Hydrology Several creeks and rivers will remain in flood today, including the Tonawanda Creek which has fallen to minor flood stage at Batavia, but is forecast to peak in moderate flood stage at Rapids. Several additional creeks and rivers will remain in minor flood as displayed on FLWBUF/FLSBUF statements. Some of the slower responding creeks such as Tonawanda Creek likely to remain in flood through Friday night. MMEFS of the NAEFS and the GEFS ensembles showing the additional rainfall late this week and into the weekend could impact the Black River by early next week, possibly reaching minor flood stage at Watertown and Boonville. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. |
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