Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest Less Than 10 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds Less Than 10 Knots. Mainly Clear, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 644am EDT Wednesday August 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Dry weather will prevail today through most of tonight with warmer temperatures than the past few days. 2.) A cold front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday. 3.) Dry weather will return Friday and last through the weekend. Key Message 1...Dry weather will prevail today through most of tonight with warmer temperatures than the past few days. Patchy fog across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario will continue through mid morning before dissipating. Otherwise, surface high pressure over NY/PA this morning will drift off the New England coast this afternoon, supporting dry weather today. Warm advection and height rises will allow for warmer temperatures than the past few days, with highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s for lower elevations and mid 70s for higher terrain. Dry weather will continue to prevail through most of tonight. A mid level trough and associated cold front will move through the central Great Lakes. Clouds will thicken and lower overnight ahead of the approaching system. The first of the scattered showers and thunderstorms may arrive in far Western NY just before daybreak Thursday. Key Message 2...A cold front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday. A broad mid level trough will advance east across Ontario and Quebec Thursday, with height falls spreading east across the Great Lakes and into New England. A surface pre-frontal trough will arrive in Western NY Thursday morning, then reach Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region by early to mid afternoon. The actual cold front and more notable dewpoint boundary will cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday evening. The majority of the active weather will be found along the pre-frontal trough rather than the cold front, as is often the case here in the warm season. The early arrival of the pre-frontal trough and associated clouds/showers will greatly limit potential destabilization, especially across Western NY. The eastern edge of the CWA (County Warning Area) across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region may have enough daylight ahead of the trough for modest destabilization by midday as surface dewpoints briefly climb into the mid to upper 60s and temperatures reach the lower 80s. Large scale height falls and DPVA ahead of the trough combined with low level convergence along the advancing pre-frontal trough will support a broken line of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms moving from west to east across the region Thursday. The majority of the rain will be in the first half of the day across Western NY, and midday into the afternoon across Central NY and east of Lake Ontario. A few additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along lake breeze boundaries Thursday afternoon across Western NY, but an expanding stable lake shadow will keep the Buffalo Metro area mainly dry in the afternoon. As far as severe weather potential goes, the early arrival of the pre-frontal trough and resulting lack of destabilization will greatly limit the potential across Western NY. Farther east, modest destabilization and modest deep layer shear may support some low end severe potential, with the main risk being isolated damaging wind gusts across Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Key Message 3...Dry weather will return Friday and last through the weekend. A broad mid level trough will advance east across Quebec Friday. A cooler airmass rounding into the base of the trough may support a few scattered lake effect rain showers east of Lake Ontario in the morning, but these will end by afternoon as surface high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes with lowering inversion heigheights and a drying airmass. The surface high will linger across the eastern Great Lakes and New England Saturday, then drift off the east coast Sunday. This surface high and building heigheights aloft will support mainly dry weather through the weekend. An initially cool airmass Friday and Friday night will give way to a day to day warming trend, with above average temperatures returning Sunday into early next week. Marine High pressure over NY/PA this morning will drift off the New England coast this afternoon. Winds will be relatively light today, generally less than 12 knots with waves 2 feet or less. The light synoptic scale flow will allow lake breeze circulations to dominate midday into the afternoon with onshore flow developing. A mid level trough and associated cold front will move into the upper Great Lakes tonight, then cross the lower Great Lakes Thursday. Winds will become southerly and increase overnight ahead of the cold front, then gradually veer to the southwest and west with the passage of the cold front. Winds will increase into the 14- 18 knot range late tonight through Thursday, resulting in choppy conditions on both lakes. Winds and waves will likely remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will become more northwest Thursday night and Friday in the wake of the front, with a light to moderate chop on both lakes. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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