Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast
| Tonight...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming West. Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Wednesday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 133pm EDT Fri July 18 2025 Synopsis Cool and calm weather will continue tonight. A wavy cold front will bring another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening, with these potentially lingering into a portion of Sunday. Another area of high pressure will then build across our region while bringing dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Near Term - Through Saturday Night Canadian high pressure will move overhead tonight and temperatures will fall into the 50s. Patchy fog is possible, especially in valley locations across the western Southern Tier, western Finger Lakes, and Black River Valley. The surface high will move off the east coast through Saturday morning. A dull shortwave trough will approach from the Mid-West with moisture slowly increasing across the eastern Great Lakes region. Forecast soundings show subsidence and dry low levels through most of the afternoon which should result in dry weather across the region. Warm air advection will result in warmer weather with highs in the low to mid 80s, upper 80s across the lake plains. An area of low pressure along a cold front will be on our doorstep Saturday evening. A corridor of moisture with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 2" (>90th percentile for July 19) will enter western NY. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to east Saturday night. Upstream convection will approach the region, however there is uncertainty how much will hold together. Hi-res guidance including the 12z HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) brings a line segment across Lake Erie into the western Southern Tier. The warm lake (78F at Buffalo) may help fuel storms through the evening hours. The Day 2 Storm Prediction Center outlook includes a Slight Risk for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern Erie counties, with a Marginal risk to about the Genesee River. Coverage and severity is expected to trend down the second half of the night. The cold front is expected to move through Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier by 8am Sunday, with showers and a few thunderstorms possible across the region. .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A few showers with embedded rumbles of thunder will start the day Sunday along a cold front before improvements will be found with surface high pressure bringing afternoon and evening clearing...along with lower humidity. Fair weather can then be expected through the end of this period with overnight fog filling the valleys of the Southern Tier. Could see temperatures a bit lower than forecasted east of Lake Ontario Monday night into Tuesday, where an overhead Canadian surface high pressure (and cooler airmass at 850 hPa than tonight) could allow for the mercury to drop into the mid 40s inland. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front will lift northward across our region Wednesday, sending summers heat and humidity back into our region...along with chances for showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period, highlighting Wednesday night through Thursday night with the passage of several shortwave troughs. NBM with a modest spread in afternoon temperatures (25th to 75th percentile) Wednesday, becomes even greater in spread Thursday and Friday, especially inland where higher temperatures than forecasted are possible...which would bring heat index values possibly into the advisory range for the traditionally warmer inland areas. Marine Quiet conditions are expected across the Lower Lakes region through Saturday...with continued weakening of the large-scale flow allowing local lake breezes to develop each afternoon. The next chance for disturbed weather will then arrive late Saturday and Saturday night...when a wavy cold frontal boundary will make its way across the Lower Lakes. This feature will bring a renewed potential for showers and scattered thunderstorms...particularly during Saturday night. The front is then forecast to slip south of Lakes Erie and Ontario during Sunday...with Canadian high pressure then providing dry and uneventful weather through Monday and Tuesday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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