Marine Weather Net

Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SW
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LEZ040 Forecast Issued: 356 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
Tonight...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Partly Cloudy Early. Showers Likely Late. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.
Wednesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Showers In The Morning, Then Just A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Thursday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Friday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Sunny. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. A Chance Of Showers Saturday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
552pm EST Tuesday Nov 5 2024

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region late tonight and early Wednesday...and this will result in some badly needed showers. While a few leftover isolated showers may last into Wednesday night and early Thursday, dry weather is anticipated for the rest of the week. Temperatures later this week will be MUCH LOWER than today, but still a little above average for early November. The next chance of rain will arrive Sunday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

Near Term - Through Wednesday Night
An elongated area of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes tonight will race east across Quebec Wednesday with a trailing weak cold front crossing our region in the process. The stronger synoptic scale forcing in the form of height falls and DPVA, along with strong upper level jet dynamics, will remain well north and west of the area. This will leave a weakly forced low level boundary that will cross our region. The weak forcing will keep rainfall amounts light, with many areas only seeing 0.10" or less, and up to 0.25" across higher terrain with some help from upslope.

The frontal timing continues to trend a little slower, with rain not arriving in Western NY until very late tonight or early Wednesday morning, then moving quickly east across the rest of the area Wednesday morning. Most of the rain will be in and out during the morning hours, with just a few leftover showers possible in the afternoon from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region. The lake plains will start to see some partial clearing later in the afternoon.

Winds will back off temporarily through the first half of tonight, then increase again late tonight through Wednesday with the cold frontal passage. Expect gusts of 15-25 mph areawide, and locally up to 35+ mph northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier, peaking early Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, staying in the upper 60s on the lake plains and low 60s across inland areas most of the time. Cold advection is weak behind the cold front Wednesday, so still expect highs in the mid to upper 60s in most areas, and lower 70s from the Genesee Valley to Central NY.

Short Term - Thursday Through Saturday
Much more seasonable, but still a bit above normal temperatures are on tap this period, along with mainly dry conditions.

The base of a mid level shortwave and associated secondary cold front will just graze the northern half of NYS as the tandem move through southern Quebec into northern New England on Thursday. This boundary will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air to our region, however the system will be moisture-starved, thus only expecting a few light rain showers (mainly east of Lake Ontario) first half of Thursday as the front pushes southeast across the area. Highs will be mainly low to mid 50s.

A sprawling area of high pressure centered over the central Plains will then ridge east over our area later Thursday into Thursday night as it moves east into the upper Mississippi Valley bringing a return to dry weather area wide. This area of surface high pressure will then expand across the western Great Lakes Friday, before shifting east with the center of the high moving across western and northcentral NY Friday night and Saturday. This feature will continue to keep dry conditions in place for the bulk of our region through the end of the work week into the first half of the weekend. The exception will be toward the North Country where a few scattered light rain showers will be possible Friday afternoon/evening as the southwestern edge of a fairly robust shortwave just grazes this area as it dives southeast through northern and eastern NY and New England. An attendant surface cold front will also cross the area bringing the next shot of cooler air, mainly across the eastern half of the area. Otherwise, highs mainly in the mid and upper 50s Friday will trend a bit cooler in the wake of the cold frontal passage with highs Saturday ranging from the mid and upper 40s east of Lake Ontario to the low and mid 50s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night mainly mid and upper the 30s. A bit cooler across the North Country Friday night with upper 20s to low 30s, while overnight lows will be similar to the previous night elsewhere.

Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
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Surface high pressure will shift east across New England Saturday night, while an area of low pressure somewhere near the mid Mississippi Valley continues to slowly strengthen as it moves toward the general vicinity of the upper Great Lakes by later Sunday, then northeast into Ontario/Quebec Monday. Models have come into somewhat better alignment concerning this system, however as noted in the previous discussion, medium range guidance continues to struggle/differ with the exact track and timing. Although the center of the low will pass well to our west and north, the its' associated warm and cold fronts will pass across our area. The GOMEX appears open for business this time around thus this system will have much deeper moisture to work with, potentially bringing the chance for some beneficial rains to the area on Sunday into Sunday night as the warm front and cold front both pass across our area, with showers possibly lingering into the start of the new work week. This would be a welcomed rain as we really need it. Moving forward, high pressure attempts to build back in toward the Monday night/Tuesday timeframe, which should lend to drying conditions toward the end of the period.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain solidly above normal through the period with mainly mid 50s to around 60 Sunday and Monday, followed by a bit cooler day Tuesday in the wake of the system.

Marine
An elongated area of low pressure will cross the upper Great Lakes tonight before racing ENE across Quebec Wednesday. A persistent 45+ knot low level jet will remain in place across the lower Great Lakes ahead of this system, supporting moderate SSW winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions for Lake Erie and portions of Lake Ontario.

A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, with a period of elevated southwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions on all of Lake Erie and most of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds will return Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

Climate
Another surge of near record warmth will move across the Lower Great Lakes through tonight. For reference, here are the record temperatures for November 5th. All of the records are from just two years ago in 2022.

Buffalo... Record Warm Low...61 in 2022

Rochester... Record Warm Low...62 in 2022

Watertown... Record Warm Low...63 in 2022

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 1pm EST Wednesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 1pm EST Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Wednesday for LOZ045.

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