Marine Weather Net

Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast




5 - 10





The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LEZ040 Forecast Issued: 921 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Overnight...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday Night...West Winds Less Than 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Friday...Light And Variable Winds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1101pm EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2024

Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures likely to reach 100F at many locations during the afternoon hours today through Thursday. There will also be showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6pm WEDNESDAY EVENING/... The strong to severe convection that had set up across parts of the western Southern Tier...Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region earlier this evening is slowly starting to weaken. The bulk of the storms were triggered or enhanced by a large outflow boundary that pushed across the far western counties...but that boundary has since weakened, Nevertheless...a few thunderstorms with very heavy rain and very localized strong wind gusts will persist over the Finger Lakes for a couple more hours. will be warm and muggy overnight with a fair amount of cirrus to further aid in holding up our temperatures. Mins will range from the upper 60s across parts of the Srn Tier to the mid 70s most elsewhere.

Wednesday will likely be the hottest day of this heat wave for most areas. 850mb temperatures will continue to hover around +20C, supporting another day with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. In addition, dew points will be slightly higher in the lower 70s at most locations, leading to heat index values to top out in the lower 100s at many locations. The lower Genesee Valley and city of Rochester will be close to heat warning criteria (105).

The region will remain within an upper level ridge, with a weak flow aloft. Instability thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours, especially along and inland of lake breezes. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will remain high, with slow storm motion again presenting a risk for localized flash flooding where storms develop.

.SHORT TERM /6pm WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ...Heat Advisory in Effect for the Entire Area as Dangerous Heat Builds Through Thursday... Well above normal temperatures and dangerous heat index values will continue through Thursday. Temperatures & dewpoints drop a few degrees for Friday and into the weekend, but humid conditions overall will linger. With the warm and humid conditions, the potential for showers/thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.

Wednesday night into Thursday, an approaching weak cold front along with a flattening trough to the north will continue the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the region. The loss of daytime heating Wednesday night will help diminish some shower/storm coverage. The potential for scattered showers and storms will continue into the morning on Thursday before becoming better organized along lake breeze boundaries in the afternoon and as a weak cold front drops southeast across the area. There is a 'Marginal Risk' from the Storm Prediction Center for the entire area as plenty of instability will be in place for storms to develop, but shear values will be relatively low. Temperatures remain hot and humid for Thursday ahead of the weak front, highs will return to the upper 80s to mid 90s. Combined with high dewpoint values, index readings into the mid 90s to around 100.

Thursday night and Friday, the frontal boundary stalls over the forecast area and will continue to provide the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms with the best chance for showers toward the NY/PA line. High temperatures on Friday will cool a few degrees down to the mid 80s to low 90s, on the northern side of the frontal boundary. If the front stalls farther north, then temperatures will be a bit warmer.

Friday night, the front stalled over the area will start to slowly push north as a warm front late in the night and into the early morning on Saturday. There should be a break in the shower/storm activity, especially with the lack of diurnal processes. Showers/storms potential will increase around/after daybreak Saturday morning as the front starts moving north and a ribbon of vorticity and area of increased moisture pushes toward and across the region. As of now, the best chance for showers early Saturday morning looks like it should be over the North Country. Certainly can't rule out a shower or storm for the rest of the area as the warm sector of a surface low tracking north of the region moves back into the area.

Long Term - Saturday Through Monday
The warm sector of a surface low crossing the Great Lakes will be in place for Saturday and Sunday continuing the potential for showers/storms across the entire area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Friday, but not as warm as the current mid-week temperatures.

The cold front associated with the surface low passing to the north will cross the area on Sunday evening and into the night, causing more organized showers/storms to move through the area. A potent shortwave trough tracking across the area behind the passing front will continue the shower potential for Monday.

Increased ridging and an incoming surface high will result in drier conditions for Monday night through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will be well above normal for the weekend with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures cool behind the passing cold front to the mid 70s to low 80s for Monday before warming again for Tuesday back to the low to upper 80s.

High pressure will be near the Lower Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes. Locally higher winds and waves are possible in scattered periodic thunderstorms.

A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region this week. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

...Buffalo... ...Date.....Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)... ...June 18........95/1994............73/2006 ...June 19........90/2001............73/1919 ...June 20........92/1995............73/2012

...Rochester... ...Date.....Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)... ...June 18........97/1957............72/2018 ...June 19........95/2001............72/1919 ...June 20........95/1953............72/1923

...Watertown... ...Date.....Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)... ...June 18........91/1957............70/1992 ...June 19........91/2007............70/1949 ...June 20........90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871. Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Thursday for NYZ001>008-010>014- 019>021-085.