Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Partly Cloudy In The Evening, Then Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 559am EDT Fri May 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased winds and wind gusts on Saturday and max temperatures were lowered on Monday and Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for scattered showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. 2) A substantial day-to-day warming trend begins today, with summer- like heat by early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for scattered showers Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A mid level shortwave and associated surface warm frontal segment will push into western and northcentral NY Saturday afternoon. Aided by additional forcing owed to a 35-45kt LLJ and a surge of deeper moisture, expect increasing chances for showers Saturday afternoon, along with a few afternoon/evening thunderstorms as diurnal instability builds. Best chance for a few storms will be across areas south of Lake Ontario and inland of any stable lake shadows where the better instability will reside. Severe potential is low as this time. Despite increasing cloud cover, should still see some decent diurnal mixing of the stronger winds off the deck to the surface, thus have bumped up winds and wind gusts from the NBM for late Saturday morning through late in the day. Currently have wind gusts of 30-35 mph across much of western NY, however if cloud cover holds off a little longer, could see wind gusts increasing a bit more with future updates. The surface boundary will stall out across our area Saturday night, however with the better forcing associated with the mid level shortwave/LLJ and deeper moisture departing to the east, shower potential will decrease through the overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...A substantial day-to-day warming trend begins today, with summer-like heat by early next week. A large pattern shift will occur this weekend into the first half of next week, flipping the switch from much cooler than average temperatures to mid-summer like heat by early next week. First surge of warmer air pushes into the area Saturday, which will help boost temperatures into the 70s this weekend. Mid and upper level ridging then amplifies over the eastern third of the U.S. and western Atlantic early next week, setting up a deep southwesterly flow right into our region. A couple of low pressure systems will cut northeast through the upper Great Lakes first part of next week bringing a strong push of mid-summer like air into our area on their eastern flank. This will boost temperatures into the 80s across much of western and north-central NY Monday and Tuesday, with a run at 90F not out of the question for some of our traditionally warmest locations. The NBM continues to look too warm for daytime highs Monday and Tuesday, thus in coordination with surrounding offices and WPC, daytime highs were lowered a few to several degrees both days. The potential for reaching headline worthy criteria for heat is low at this time. Marine A strengthening S to SW flow will bring gentle to moderate breezes today through Saturday night, with light to moderate chop on both lakes at times, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Pressure gradient will then weaken, with light winds and little to no wave action on both lakes Sunday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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