Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast
|Tonight...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Showers And Thunderstorms During The Day, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Sunday Night. Some Thunderstorms May Produce Gusty Winds. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. A Chance Of Showers Tuesday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
733pm EDT Thu May 19 2022
A warm front will cross the eastern Great Lakes late tonight and Friday, and may produce a few brief showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. The warm front will usher in a very warm and moderately humid airmass for Friday afternoon through the weekend. The warm and unstable air may support a few showers and thunderstorms, especially on Sunday when a cold front crosses the region.
Near Term - Through Friday Night
A weak bubble of high pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes this evening with dry weather. A warm frontal segment will then race from southwest to northeast across the area overnight. Increasing isentropic upglide and moisture transport will bring a period of cloud cover along and ahead of the warm front. Most of the showers should remain on the Canadian side of the border, although a few sprinkles or light showers may cross the North Country early Friday morning with the passage of the warm front.
Our attention then turns to an interesting feature for Friday that is largely the result of prior upstream convection. A well defined MCV emerged from overnight convection across Kansas. This MCV will likely result in another MCS tonight across the Ohio Valley, which will then result in a 3rd re-incarnation of a convectively augmented vorticity maxima crossing PA and southern NY Friday. This feature will provide mesoscale ascent and enhanced low level flow and moisture convergence. The best juxtaposition of moisture, forcing, and instability will likely stay south of our region across PA and the northern Mid Atlantic. Nonetheless, there enough forcing from the northern flank of the shortwave to support a period of clouds and a chance of showers moving from southwest to northeast across the area on Friday. Given the inherent uncertainty with track, timing, and strength of these convectively produced MCVs, have just kept POPS in the chance range for now. Highs will likely reach well into the 80s by late afternoon Friday in a strong warm advection pattern. The caveat to this, if clouds and showers become too widespread during peak heating this could keep temperatures lower than forecast.
The showers from the shortwave will end by mid afternoon across Western NY, and early to mid evening east of Lake Ontario. This will leave dry weather and partly cloudy skies to prevail for the rest of Friday night. SSW gradient winds will stay up overnight, and combine with the passage of a notable low level thermal ridge to keep temperatures sultry overnight, with lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains of Western NY and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
...Strong Thunderstorms Possible Sunday... The overall pattern will remain fairly progressive during this period, as a ridge off the East coast gives way to energy being ejected out of a broad western conus trough by Sunday evening. The offshore ridge will also serve to keep a cold front stalled to our northwest until Sunday. Overall this scenario will support above normal temperatures for the weekend, particularly through Saturday when the mercury will average a solid 15 to 20 degrees higher than 30 year normals. The summer warmth will be brought to an end as the cold front finally sweeps through the area on Sunday, which may induce strong to severe convection.
The aforementioned ridge off the coast will amplify somewhat on Saturday. With the cold frontal boundary stalled to our northwest, a continuous feed of very warm air will flow into our region. H850 temps in the vicinity of 18C during the afternoon should easily mix and support max temps of 85 to 90, with the higher end of that range being targeted in the Genesee valley and in some of the valleys of the Southern Tier. Conversely, lake breezes will keep it notably cooler near the lakes, such as in downtown Buffalo where the mercury should not climb out of the 70s.
In regards to precipitation, Saturday morning will be rainfree as the boundary layer remains capped. Thereafter, convection is likely to develop along a slow moving lake breeze boundary off Lake Erie. Associated showers/thunderstorms will move east by late morning/midday while slowly building northeastward in the increasingly unstable environment (ie diurnal heating). There is a suggestion by some of the guidance packages that the remnants of an EML may be over the region at this time, and with 35-40kts of deep layer shear present, any lake driven convection will have to be closely watched. Though there still remains some uncertainty in the overall shower/storm coverage, enough severe potential exists such that Storm Prediction Center has placed the vast majority of the CWA (all areas except far SE Allegany County) under a Marginal Risk for severe weather for the day Saturday.
Any convection that does fire up Saturday afternoon and evening will wane with the loss of diurnal heating after sundown. This will leave a mainly dry night in place along with summery mins averaging in the mid 60s.
Sunday is guaranteed to be more unsettled, with greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms as the fairly strong cold front pushes through our forecast area. While the actual front is likely to move through in the afternoon, a pre frontal trough will precede it and move in from the west during the morning hours. This seems to be how the finer resolution guidance continues to resolve the synoptic pattern on Sunday, as well as being the climatologically favored solution. There is also an inclination for the stronger convection to be found with the pre frontal trough. Though the finer details will be difficult to pin down at this point...The presence of sufficient moisture and instability for convection, as well as moderately enhanced low/mid level flow with added synoptic forcing, will be enough to produce strong to severe storms as reflected in SPC's Day 4 Outlook.
As the cold front exits to our east Sunday night, the associated convection will die off during the evening with notably cooler air overspreading the region during the overnight. Temps by daybreak Monday should largely be in the 40s.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
An area of high pressure will span the Great Lakes region Monday. A cool, northerly flow persists with high temperatures only reaching the low 60s across the region. The surface high will move into New England while a ridge of high pressure moves overhead by Tuesday. Dry weather continues with a return flow bringing warmer air into the region. Highs will bounce into the low 70s.
Pattern becomes amplified by Wednesday with a deepening mid-level trough across the Plains and a ridge over the Northeast. Surface low pressure will deepen as it moves from the central Mississippi River Basin to the Ohio River Basin. Chances for showers increase starting Wednesday afternoon as a warm front approaches the region. Showers and possible storms are possible through Thursday.
Besides Monday/Monday night, temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Thursday.
Southwest winds around 15 knots will bring choppy conditions to Lake Erie through this evening, although winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will be lighter on Lake Ontario.
Southerly winds will increase into the 15-20 knot range later tonight through Friday night and produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, although the offshore wind component will keep the most significant wave action in Canadian waters.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories