Lake Erie - Ripley to Dunkirk NY Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Showers Likely Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 15 To 20 Knots. Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming West. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Light And Variable. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Light And Variable Winds. A Chance Of Showers Wednesday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...South Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 817pm EDT Sunday Jun 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and a few thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. 2) Rain moves into the area late tonight through Monday, dry weather returns for Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms possible today, especially east of Lake Ontario. An area of channeled vorticity moving through the North Country and daytime heating will support some measure of showers and a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. Elsewhere...expect mainly dry weather especially near the stabilizing influence of the lakes. Highs temps today will be in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain moves into the area late tonight and continues through Monday, dry weather returns for Tuesday. A vigourous shortwave trough and low (remnant MCS) track east tonight within the broad cyclonic flow. Deep moisture streaming northward (PW 1.4-1.5") and lift on the lead edge of the LLJ will support increasing chances for rain as we head into Monday. The precipitation shield on the northern flank of the aforementioned low is advertised to arrive across WNY between 09z-12z Monday and then work E-ENE across the region. While there still remains some timing and track issues...Monday overall looks wet for much of the area. Latest ensemble probability of 24-hr precipitation > 0.50" and > 0.75" hover in the 60-90% range for areas south of Lake Ontario. That said...localized amounts around 1.0" or more still can't be ruled out depending on the overall track of the low and even some potential for convection (S. Tier) in the afternoon. For areas east of lake Ontario...expect lower precipitation amounts with probability of 24- hr precipitation > 0.25" and > 0.50" in the 40-60% range, with diminishing returns the further north you go across the North Country and into the St. Lawrence Valley. With the low passage late Monday afternoon we should see precipitation diminishes from west to east. Dry weather then returns Tuesday with high pressure building in over the region. Unsettled weather makes a return Thursday as a cold front approaches with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Marine High pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes today and support light winds and waves. Northeast winds will increase on the Lakes late tonight through Monday as low pressure tracks south of the region. Northeast winds may reach small craft thresholds on Lake Erie, especially south of Dunkirk Monday. Winds are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through at least the middle of the new work week. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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