Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots. Mostly Cloudy Early, Then Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Showers Likely. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Sunday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 45 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 259pm EDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Synopsis Lingering scattered light showers and patchy drizzle will taper off from north to south this afternoon south of Lake Ontario, with lagging cloud cover then slowly clearing out from north to south through the end of the day. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair, dry weather Thursday and Friday. While some showers will be likely this coming weekend, especially on Saturday, a good amount of dry time will be built in. Looking further down the road, we can look forward to a summer-like warm up Sunday and Monday with the mercury surging well into the 70s and even a few spots into the 80s. Near Term - Through Thursday ...Unseasonably Cold Tonight... Back edge of scattered rain shower activity with areas of patchy drizzle now working across areas south of Lake Ontario and will continue to taper off from north to south through the afternoon. Otherwise, southward bound surface cold front about to cross the NY/PA line. Temperatures that started out the day in the 40s and low 50s have fallen back into the upper 30s to low and mid 40s for the most part. Notably drier air continues to work southwards from Ontario with the northern edge of cloud bank running from the north shore of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley. This drier air in combination with increasing subsidence will bring pronounced, but slow clearing from north to south, especially south of Lakes Erie and Ontario. While at least partial sunshine should make an appearance at some point this afternoon across areas from the Thruway north, unfortunately this could mean that areas closer to the Pennsylvania border could be fairly cloudy right up to around sunset. Center of expansive area of Canadian high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will expand southeast over the lower Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. This will set the stage for a very chilly latter April night, with cool airmass remaining in place Thursday. The upside is that feature will provide dry weather, clearing skies tonight/abundant sunshine Thursday, and mainly light winds. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 20s away from the immediate lakeshores. Despite plenty of strong April sunshine on Thursday, highs will only recover into the 40s, with some low and mid 50s for the traditionally warmer spots south of Lake Ontario. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Saturday Night Surface high pressure will remain camped over our region Thursday night and Friday. Subsidence will limit cloud cover, and this lack of cloud cover and light winds, with a dry lower atmosphere will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions Thursday night, with lows near freezing along the lakeshore, to lower 20s inland. A warm front will near our region Friday night with increasing clouds and rain showers reaching the western Southern Tier late. Ahead of the rain, southeast downslope winds could reach 35 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline. Warm front enters our region Saturday, and accompanied by a shortwave aloft a brief period of rain showers is expected. Basin average rainfall will be on the order of a tenth to a third of an inch. Some thunder may occur with limited MUCAPE values less than 500 J/KG, especially over Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier. A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, may linger behind the front later Saturday and Saturday night with again limited instability. Mild Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s inland and east of Lake Ontario, to near 60 across the favorable downslope areas of WNY. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Heading into the later half of the weekend and into the first half of the new work week, a ridge will lie across the Great Lakes, while a broad trough will span across the Rockies and Central Plains. Additionally, a shortwave trough will will be in the midst of passing north into the ridge. This pattern will translate to an initial surface low (supported by the shortwave) to wash out across northern Quebec, meanwhile another surface low will develop across the northern Plains. These surface features combined with the building ridge aloft, will support the initial surface low's cold front to stall out just north of the area, supporting a brief glimpse at summer like conditions with temperatures warming up into the 70s and afternoon diurnally driven convection. Expect similar such conditions, though a few degrees warmer to prevail through Monday as the second surface low traverses northeast across Lake Superior. As the surface low marches toward Quebec Monday night through Tuesday, its attendant surface cold front will approach the region from the west and then cross from west to east. Initially expect some thunderstorms ahead of the front's arrival Monday night and then rain showers with the front's passage Tuesday. Additionally with the front's passage Tuesday, expect temperatures to be cooler than Sunday and Monday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s, though still well above average for the end of April. A secondary cold front will then cross the area from north to south Wednesday supporting a small chance for a few rain showers. Marine In the wake of the passing cold front, winds have shifted to the north and freshened. This has resulted in low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario this afternoon, while the short fetch and relative brief duration of the elevated winds will only produce choppy waters on Lake Erie. Expansive high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually build across the lower Great Lakes overnight and Thursday. This will significantly lower winds and waves throughout the region this evening and tonight, with only gentle breezes and negligible wave action expected through Thursday night, and a light onshore flow developing Thursday as the surface high passes overhead. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ042- 045. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ043-044. |
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