Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Partly Sunny Late This Morning, Then Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Partly Cloudy In The Evening, Then Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
|Monday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts During The Day. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming North. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 59 Degrees.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640am EDT Monday September 27 2021
A warm front will push north of the area this morning, but will quickly be followed by a cold front which will drop southward across Western New York this evening. This will produce showers at times through Tuesday morning, however the vast majority of today will be warm and breezy for areas south of Lake Ontario. After this, expect fair and mainly dry weather through the rest of the work week as Canadian high pressure builds across our region.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
A warm front will move from southwest to northeast across the area through mid-morning. This boundary is ill-defined at the surface, but there is a sharp mid-level thermal gradient which will provide the focus for some showers. Showers across portions of Western New York at daybreak will quickly move east of Lake Ontario by mid-morning. These will intensify some as a mid- level shortwave catches up to the boundary. An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Meanwhile, the rest of Western NY will dry out quickly by mid- morning with frequent breaks of sunshine developing.
It will be breezy today, especially across the Niagara Frontier where the clearing will help winds aloft (40 kts at 925mb) mix to the surface with wind gusts up to 40 mph from mid-morning through early afternoon. Areas south of Lake Ontario will be in the warm sector, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s today. There may be a few lingering showers east of Lake Ontario which will be closer to the frontal boundary.
A digging mid-level trough will push a cold frontal boundary southward across the region this evening. There may be some showers with this boundary, which could be enhanced by orographic lifting and lake enhancement at 850mb temperatures drop to around +6c across Lake Ontario by daybreak Tuesday.
Surface high pressure across the Central Great Lakes will expand across our region on Tuesday. There may be some lingering showers across the Western Southern Tier Tuesday morning, but the entire region should be rain-free by Tuesday afternoon. Upslope/lake enhanced clouds will linger a bit longer, but the drier air mass should eventually win out allowing for a partial clearing by the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
Following the passage of the early week cold front...Canadian high pressure over northern Ontario and Quebec will slowly but steadily ridge southward across our area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Subsidence and cool dry air associated with this feature will keep our area largely dry...with the possible exception of areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario. This latter region could potentially be clipped by the western portion of a large upper level low dropping southward across Quebec and New England Wednesday and Wednesday night...which would result in an increase in cloud cover and the chance for some showers/lake effect showers should this come to fruition. With the various model packages still at odds as to the timing and strength/westward extent of the upper level low...for now have kept Probability of Precipitation for Wednesday-Wednesday night confined to the slight chance range.
As for temperatures...expect seasonably cool readings thanks to the cool dry Canadian airmass...along with a bit of a west-east gradient in temps given the upper low/attendant cool pool aloft dropping southward across New England. Expect highs on Wednesday to range from the low-mid 60s across western New York to the upper 50s and lower 60s east of Lake Ontario...with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nigheights mostly ranging through the 40s...with some upper 30s possible across interior portions of the North Country.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
During the latter portions of the work week...the 00z guidance suite continues to exhibit notable differences in the handling of the large upper low over New England. The GFS remains insistent on ejecting the low northeastward to the Gulf of St Lawrence by later Friday...while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) holds the large cyclonic gyre in place across the Canadian Maritimes and New England...with the GEM now trending toward the deeper/more westward ECMWF solution. Should the latter camp verify...there would be a continued low potential for some showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario on Thursday...for which some slight chance Probability of Precipitation are in place. Otherwise...cool and dry weather should continue through Friday. With regard to temperatures...Thursday should easily be the coolest day of the week with highs ranging from the mid-upper 50s east of lake Ontario to the upper 50s and lower 60s across western New York...before temps begin to rebound a little (i.e. back to Wednesday's levels) on Friday. Meanwhile...nightly lows will bottom out Thursday night when readings should dip into the mid-upper 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country and the lower to mid 40s elsewhere...with lows Friday night then expected to be more similar to those of Wednesday night.
As we move into Next Weekend
the guidance diverges even further with the track/strength/timing of the next shortwave impulse and attendant surface low. Given the large discrepancies and poor run-to- run and model-to-model consistency...for now have kept precipitation chances rather conservative with a generally dry Saturday giving way to general slight chance Probability of Precipitation by Sunday. Otherwise...temperatures should continue on a slow upward climb...with daytime highs reaching the mid 60s to around 70 by Sunday.
Breezy southwesterly flow will maintain widespread SCA- level conditions today across eastern portions of both lakes. Also issued an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Niagara River where some sunshine will help winds aloft mix down the river valley today. Winds will then subside tonight with northerly flow in the wake of a passing cold front. 15 to 20 knot flow may support a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines along the south shores of Lake Ontario late tonight into Tuesday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6pm EDT this evening for NYZ007- 010-019-085.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ045. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ044.