Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Tonight...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 5 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southeast And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. A Chance Of Freezing Rain Sunday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 34 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 213pm EST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lake enhanced and upslope snows will focus east and east- southeast of the lakes into this evening, before shifting south and southeast of the lakes later tonight into Thursday. 2) Low pressure sliding across Quebec Province may bring some accumulating light snow from late Friday into Saturday...with the best chances for this east of Lake Ontario. KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake enhanced and upslope snows will focus east and east-southeast of the lakes into this evening, before shifting south and southeast of the lakes later tonight into Thursday. Cold, moist cyclonic flow aloft combined with 850mb temps in the negative low to mid teens C will keep lake enhanced and upslope snow showers going east and southeast of the lakes tonight into Thursday. A secondary cold front will drop across the area late this afternoon into this evening causing westerly low level flow to veer northwest for tonight and Thursday. This will allow lake enhanced and upslope snow showers east of Lake Ontario to gradually taper off through the overnight, however lake enhanced and upslope snow showers will continue south of Lake Ontario and south/southeast of Lake Erie through Thursday morning before tapering off Thursday afternoon as mid level moisture is stripped away and equilibrium levels lower. Expecting an additional 2-5 inches across east of Lake Ontario through the early overnight, before tapering off as low level flow shifts northwest, thus a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 1am tonight. Expecting an additional 2-5 inches across Wayne and N. Cayuga County where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 1pm Thursday, with 1-4 inches across remaining areas south of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie, but over a longer period of time through midday/afternoon Thursday. The higher-end amounts will be across lake enhanced and upslope areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure sliding across Quebec Province may bring some accumulating light snow from late Friday into Saturday...with the best chances for this east of Lake Ontario. Between later Friday and the first part of Saturday a fast-moving shortwave trough will slide across southwestern Quebec and New England...while broad/weak low pressure pivots across Quebec Province. The increase in synoptic-scale lift and moisture attendant to these features will bring the opportunity for another quick shot of accumulating light snow to the area during the above time frame. The greatest potential for this will be found east of Lake Ontario which will lie directly in the path of the aforementioned shortwave and consequently where moisture will be deepest and lift maximized...with this and some upsloping possibly resulting in some 1-3"/2-4" accumulations across the lower elevations/higher terrain respectively. West of this snow probabilities and amounts should generally tend to drop off with increasing southwestward extent...though uncertainty still persists in exactly where the western edge of the precipitation will lie. With this in mind...have kept a range of chance Probability of Precipitation in place across western New York for now. Regardless of how much snow we do see from this system...there is fairly good agreement that this should taper off between the latter half of Friday night and Saturday morning...leaving behind mainly dry weather for Saturday afternoon. Marine A secondary cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes this evening with fresh west winds veering to northwest. Small craft headlines remain in place on both lakes as outlined below. Winds will gradually weaken through tonight into Thursday morning as the gradient relaxes across the region. The next chance for small craft conditions will arrive for Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as a clipper low dives south toward the lakes. Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Thursday for NYZ004-005. Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Thursday for NYZ006>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for LOZ043- 044. |
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