Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Mainly Clear Late This Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Northwest To 30 Knots. Snow Showers Likely. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 34 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 605pm EST Sunday Feb 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal change to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A frigid airmass with wind chills around zero will remain across the eastern Great Lakes region through Monday morning. 2) Lake effect snow returns for Tuesday through Thursday. 3) More widespread snow and cold on the way Friday through next weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...A frigid airmass with wind chills around zero will remain across the eastern Great Lakes region through Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will move across the region tonight. Another chilly night is in store across the region with lows in the single digits, to the minus single digits to minus teens across the North Country. Light winds will keep wind chills near ambient temperatures overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake effect snow returns for Tuesday through Thursday. A shortwave trough will dive southeast across the Great Lakes Monday, reaching the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday night, causing temperatures to drop down into the mid negative teens Celsius, along with introducing moderate synoptic moisture. In the wake of some minor widespread snow, a lake effect snow band is expected to develop, however due to some discrepancies with boundary layer winds from the timing of the shortwave trough's passage, exact placement of the band in difficult to pin point. This being said, the band should develop east/northeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday, before settling southward towards the southeastern shoreline of the Lake Wednesday due to the passage of the shortwave trough axis. The greatest snowfall accumulations, and corresponding impacts will occur closer to the lakeshore and as far east as the western Tug Hill as boundary layer winds will remain on the lighter side. This all being said, due to the wind shift causing the lake band to oscillate, weak winds and limited snowband convergence/lift will support advisory amounts of a multiple inches. However, if conditions were to become more favorable, snow amounts may reach the low end warning snow amounts. A west to northwest wind may support the snowband to linger into Thursday off Lake Ontario. KEY MESSAGE 3...More widespread snow and cold on the way for Friday through next weekend. Heading into the later half of this week and looking into next weekend, the next potent shortwave trough will drop southeast across the Great Lakes Friday, swinging its axis across New York state Friday night through Saturday. Meanwhile at the surface, the next clipper system and associated cold front will drop southeast across the eastern Great Lakes late Friday afternoon through Friday night, before exiting the Atlantic Coast and heading out to sea Saturday. Initially, with the clipper system/frontal boundary passage expect widespread snowfall to spread from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon and Friday night. In it's wake, wrap around moisture combined with the arrival of the next arctic airmass (temperatures aloft at 850mb plummeting to -25C) will support lake effect snow to develop south/southeast of mainly Lake Ontario Saturday and linger into Sunday. All of this being said there will be two main impacts to be concerned with for the end of the week and weekend. First will be a blanket of widespread snow of a few inches Friday night, with additional accumulations south/southeast of Lake Ontario through Sunday. The second impact will be another round of bone chilling temperatures for the weekend, where Cold Weather Headlines may be needed. Marine A narrow ridge of high pressure over the lower Great Lakes will bring a period of generally lighter winds and diminished wave action through Monday. A weak trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday with some increase in wind, but conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The next period of more windy conditions will develop Thursday night and continue Friday through Saturday as a strong arctic cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, producing higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions that peak Friday through Friday night on Lake Ontario. Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. Climate Temperatures have been below 20F for all three of our climate sites since January 24th. Forecasted highs for all three of our climate sites have maximum temperatures below 20F through today (Feb 1st). If this verifies, this would give each site 9 consecutive days below 20F, a stretch that does not happen too often in each station's period of record. Below are the longest stretches for each of our climate sites below 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Buffalo... Rank .... Run Length .... Ending Date 1 .... 16 .... February 3rd 1961 2 .... 11 .... February 2nd 1936 3 .... 10 .... February 18th 1979 4 .... 10 .... February 17th 1914 Rochester... 1 .... 12 .... January 30th 1961 2 .... 10 .... February 18th 1979 3 .... 10 .... February 17th 1914 Watertown... 1 .... 16 .... February 3rd 1961 2 .... 13 .... February 18th 1979 3 .... 10 .... February 6th 1978 4 .... 10 .... February 18th 1958 5 .... 9 .... January 15th 1970 6 .... 9 .... December 23rd 1963 NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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