Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
15 - 20
10 - 15
5 - 15
10 - 15
|Today...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 30 Knots This Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain Showers Early. Waves 13 To 18 Feet Subsiding To 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 23 Feet.|
|Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 15 Knots. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 7 To 10 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Wednesday Night. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 38 Degrees.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
702am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023
A deep storm system along the Ottawa Valley will weaken while lifting across Quebec today. The severe winds that occurred since mid evening last night have ended, but it will remain windy though mid morning, before winds significantly diminish this afternoon into this evening. The next weather maker will pass by to our south late tonight and Monday bringing light mixed precipitation with little to no snow accumulation.
Near Term - Through Tonight
...All High Wind Warnings Have Been Discontinued... Deep low pressure continues to weaken along the Ottawa Valley up to 993mb. This low will unravel through the day as it moves across Quebec. 65kt low level jet within the cold advection behind a cold front that supported multiple wind gusts of 60-70mph from the Lake Erie shoreline across the Niagara Frontier, including Niagara Falls, Buffalo and Rochester, is slowly weakening now down to 55 kts per latest VWP. Wind gusts continue to trend downward. Have ended all High Wind Warnings as the severe winds from this event have ended. Still does remain windy even through 8-11 am mainly higher terrain WNY to Genesee valley and Finger Lakes and also east of Lake Ontario (especially near the shoreline and across higher terrain), so have replaced some of the warnings with wind advisories and have extended the current advisories til 15z/11 am. Winds will significantly diminish this afternoon into this evening.
Otherwise...the bulk of the precipitation through early today will be east of Lake Ontario. Rain has switched to snow across the higher terrain. Minor snow accumulations of a couple inches are possible through daybreak, though this will be pretty isolated. Snow showers will continue to focus on the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario through late morning before ending this afternoon. Additional snow accums today though will be an inch or less centered on the Tug Hill. Light rain and snow showers over western NY toward Finger Lakes have changed to snow showers. These will be too spotty and intermittent to produce more than a coating of snow through daybreak over the highest terrain. Beyond the spotty snow showers and clouds early this morning, expect improving weather as skies become mostly sunny by mid morning into the afternoon. Highs today will be in the low to upper 40s south of Lake Ontario, and in the mid 30s to low 40s for the North Country.
Tonight a weakening shortwave trough (that is starting out as a pretty robust disturbance early today over the central plains) will cause some showers for areas south of Lake Ontario after midnight. It should be cool enough for most of the precipitation to fall as snow showers. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will diminish below 15 mph for most areas by the middle portion of the night.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
A -2 SD closed upper level low will remain along the southern shoreline of Hudson Bay this period. A fast zonal flow will be found well south of this low, with several shortwaves bringing chances for precipitation this period to our region.
A fading shortwave may bring a few snow showers to WNY early Monday, otherwise not till later in the day when another shortwave and a more developed surface low moves out of the Ohio Valley will precipitation return to our western zones. This low will track south of our region allowing for a southern push of low level cold air from Canada. However the stronger March sun angle will also allow for some warming of the boundary layer, such that precipitation will be a mix of snow and rain Monday before transitioning to all snow Monday night as the surface low pushes eastward. Cooler air wrapping around the northwestern flank of the system may spur the development of a few lake enhanced showers southeast of Lake Erie late Monday night.
In the wake of the surface low Tuesday a cool northerly flow will continue across our region. Though there may be a couple of stray snow showers inland from the lakes, expect a mostly dry day with gradually clearing skies as surface high pressure builds from the Ohio Valley through Tuesday night.
Temperatures this period will be near or just below normal during the daytime, with near normal at night.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
A broad upper level trough lying across Ontario, Canada and the Great Lakes region Wednesday morning will continue to traverse eastward into the Northeast by Wednesday night. This will send a fast moving cold front through the Lower Lakes later Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing another round of widespread wet weather to the region. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in evolution of this system, though with the dry start to the day and the strong March sun angle heating the surface, expect mostly rain at the onset, with a quick changeover to snow sometime in the evening. Long range guidance is beginning to indicate some SBCAPE present and low-end snow squall parameters with the front, and with deep mixing and Cold Air Advection visibilities may become an issue with these snow showers. Will be something to keep an eye on moving forward.
In the wake of the trough, upper level ridging will amplify across across the Great Lakes region Thursday and Thursday night, resulting in a quick area of high pressure to slide east across the region and support a brief period of dry weather.
Aforementioned amplification of the upper level pattern aloft will support active weather to close out the week and start of the weekend. This being said, a deep trough across the western half of the CONUS will support cyclogenesis and nurture a surface low to mature and deepen as it heads northeast across the Mississippi Valley and then across the Ohio Valley towards New York State. While the model guidance continues to have difference in the timing of this system, they agree that there will be a complex low pressure system impacting the region late in the week and start of the weekend. Temperatures look to be warm enough that precipitation should be mostly in the form of rain, though there remains too much uncertainty in the track of the low to nail down any specifics in terms of wind potential.
Otherwise, temperatures will start off near to below normal with highs in the low to mid 40s Wednesday, then cooling behind the cold front Wednesday night, with only 30s and low 40s on Thursday. Then, Gulf of Mexico warm air will be advected into the region Friday and Saturday supporting near normal temperatures with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Strong low pressure along the Ottawa Valley will weaken as it moves across Quebec today. Southwest to west gale force winds will slowly taper off, first on Lake Erie through daybreak (Gale Warning has been dropped already), then on Lake Ontario through the day from west to east.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Lake Erie: Lake levels continue to subside on Lake Erie after a peak of 8 foot, 10 inches was observed at BUF shortly after 9 pm Saturday evening. The Lakeshore Flood Warning is no longer in effect.
Lake Ontario: Lakeshore Flood Warning continues on Lake Ontario as west gales to 40 knots, considerable wave action along with water levels now increasing to a bit above normal will combine to produce the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion at the eastern end of the lake today. The greatest risk will occur from daybreak through mid afternoon during the period of highest waves.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Wind Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for NYZ002>008- 011>014-021. Lakeshore Flood Warning until 5pm EDT this afternoon for NYZ006-007.
Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LEZ020- 040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 11am EDT this morning for LOZ042-062. Small Craft Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ042. Gale Warning until 2pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ043>045- 063>065. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 2am EDT Monday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for SLZ022-024.
Cities Tides This Coastal Forecast