Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers After Midnight. Snow Late. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Snow In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday Night...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Thursday...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Snow Showers During The Day. Waves 7 To 11 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet. |
| Friday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet, Then Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 47 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 608pm EST Monday Dec 1 2025 Synopsis Low pressure will pass south of the area and spread accumulating snow across the entire region late tonight through midday Tuesday. Snow accumulation will be relatively minor, but the snow will peak in coverage and intensity for the Tuesday morning commute. The snow will rapidly taper off from west to east Tuesday afternoon, with limited lake effect snow showers adding another light coating of snow south of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Tuesday evening. A strong cold front will cross the area Wednesday night through Thursday morning, bringing the next round of accumulating snow to the region. Near Term - Through Tuesday Night Radar imagery showing a few lake effect flurries southeast of Lake Ontario early this afternoon. These will end by mid afternoon as boundary layer flow breaks down as surface high pressure briefly builds over the eastern Great Lakes. Elsewhere, any sunny breaks will fade behind thickening clouds ahead of the next system. Our attention then turns to a synoptic scale system that will spread accumulating snow into the entire region late tonight through the first half of Tuesday. A partially phased mid level trough will advance east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday. The main weak surface low will remain well south of the area, with just a weak inverted surface trough and baroclinic wave passing through the eastern Great Lakes. Despite the weak surface features, forcing for ascent from right entrance region jet dynamics and a low/mid level differential temperature advection regime and associated frontogenesis will support a period of widespread light to borderline moderate snow across the entire region. Snow will spread into Western NY after midnight, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region before daybreak. The bulk of the accumulating snow will be from the pre-dawn hours through mid morning for Western NY, and daybreak through early afternoon east of Lake Ontario. NBM and other blended model suites continue to suggest this will be a relatively minor snowfall event, with 2-4" total in most areas and some local 5" amounts across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and southern Tug Hill region. Many areas may come up a little short of the 4" advisory criteria, but the fact that this event peaks during the morning commute is the compelling reason for the Winter Weather Advisory based on travel impact. Synoptic snow will rapidly taper off from west to east late morning through early afternoon. There will be some limited lake response south of the lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening that may add another inch or so of accumulation to the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie, and the Rochester area/western Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Any lake effect will mostly end by late Tuesday night as a ridge of high pressure and associated subsidence/dry air build into the eastern Great Lakes. There will be no wind to speak of in this event, with no blowing/drifting snow issues. Synoptic snow does tend to feature smaller "grainy" snowflakes that result in more slippery road conditions than lake effect snow. Main focus during this period will be a burst of heavy snow accompanied by strong winds associated with a strong cold front that will plow across the area later Wednesday into Thursday morning. Expect a general 1-2" with the frontal passage, however a quick 2-4" will be possible northeast of the lakes with some lake enhancement to boost the totals a bit. Good news is, the worst of this is expected to come through the area just prior to bulk of the Thursday morning commute, especially across the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas. The Watertown area may not be so lucky. Of note, if this boundary is just a little slower, this may have larger implications on the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas. Nonetheless, be prepared for near white-out conditions when this boundary moves through your area. Accumulating lake effect snow will develop behind the cold front as winds veer west Thursday morning in the wake of the boundary, then northwest Thursday afternoon. Main thrust of the lake effect will be Thursday morning with a few to several inches possible east of the lakes. Highest amounts at this time look to be east of Lake Ontario with a better upstream connection becoming established across Lake Ontario. Lingering moisture in the immediate wake of the system will also produce some lighter accumulating snows across the favored westerly upslope flow terrain areas first half of Thursday. Deeper moisture exiting as the trough pulls east combined with increasing subsidence associated with high pressure ridging in from the Ohio Valley will allow much of the area to dry out Thursday afternoon through Friday, however a cold northwest flow crossing over the lakes will likely keep localized snow showers going southeast of the lakes, especially southeast of Lake Ontario where an additional inch or two will be possible Thursday afternoon. Winds will gradually back west then south through Thursday night as the center of the high slides by to our south, with any weakening lake activity making a sweep from south to north across the area and eventually into Canada by Friday morning in a very weakened state. High pressure is then expected to bring a dry finish to the work week. Temperatures will be below normal through the period, especially Thursday and Friday in the wake of the strong cold frontal passage with highs mainly in the 20s. Long Term - Friday Night Through Monday Dry weather may persist into the start of Friday night as high pressure departs east off the Atlantic Coast. Some lake effect snow may start to develop northeast of the lakes later Friday night and Saturday as southwesterly flow becomes better aligned ahead of an approaching mid level trough and associated strong surface cold front. Cold front crosses the region Saturday night with yet another reinforcing blast of cold air in its' wake. Winds veer northwest Sunday with any lingering lake snow shifting southeast of the lakes. Most model consensus then builds high pressure in across the region Sunday night into Monday with most of the area dry for the start of the new work week, other than some lingering northwest flow lighter snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday night. Marine High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes this afternoon with winds and waves quickly subsiding. Winds will stay relatively light at 15 knots or less through early Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday night. Southwest winds will increase Wednesday ahead of the front, then veer to west and northwest behind the front late Wednesday night and Thursday, producing a round of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 7pm EST Tuesday for NYZ001>006-008-010>014-019>021-085. Marine None. |
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