Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...West Winds To 30 Knots. Scattered Snow Showers Late This Evening, Then Scattered Flurries After Midnight. Waves 10 To 14 Feet Subsiding To 8 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 6 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Monday Night...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers Overnight. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then Snow And Rain Showers Likely Wednesday Night. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Friday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Snow Showers During The Day. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 37 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246am EST Monday Jan 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Have increased winds on eastern Lake Erie to gale force again today...otherwise there have been no significant changes to the forecast this morning. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A passing shortwave trough will enhance lake snows today and tonight, mainly east of Lake Ontario where additional moderate accumulations are expected. 2) Winds will become gusty again today, especially northeast of Lake Erie. 3) A low pressure system will pass by the upper Great Lakes Tuesday and to our north Tuesday night, with gusty winds and rain that mixes with snow across the higher terrain through Wednesday. 4) Progressively turning colder Wednesday night and Thursday with the potential for some accumulating snows, especially in the favored areas east and southeast of the lakes. KEY MESSAGE 1...A passing shortwave trough will enhance lake snows today and tonight, mainly east of Lake Ontario where additional moderate accumulations are expected. A shortwave trough will push across the lower Great Lakes today... before sliding off to our east tonight. While the attendant warm advection regime will result in a thermodynamic environment that will be less conducive for lake effect snow...this will be at least partially offset by deepening synoptic scale moisture again. The most favorable conditions (relatively speaking) will be found over Lake Ontario...where 850 mb temps of around -10C will allow for lake snows to rejuvenate across areas east of the lake today... before weakening again tonight as the atmosphere warms further and synoptic moisture diminishes in the wake of the shortwave trough. Coupled with upsloping...this will result in additional moderate accumulations across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and (to a lesser extent) the western Adirondack foothills...with notably lesser amounts across the lower elevations. Taking this and some additional wind gusts to 30-40 mph into account...the existing Winter Weather Advisory will remain in place for the three counties east of Lake Ontario. East of Lake Erie 850 mb temps of -7C to -9C will be a bit too warm for a robust lake response...and instead will be just cold enough to generate the likelihood of some lake enhanced snow showers when coupled with the increase in background moisture and lift provided by the shortwave trough. Given the general WSW to SW flow...the bulk of the snow showers will lie across the Niagara Frontier including the Buffalo Metro area...where an inch or so of snow could accumulate through the day. The snow showers will then gradually diminish late today and tonight as the atmosphere warms and dries behind the shortwave trough...with it not out of the question that the snow showers end as some patchy freezing drizzle tonight if the cloud bearing layer falls below the prime dendritic snow growth region before the precipitation ends. KEY MESSAGE 2...Winds will become gusty again today, especially northeast of Lake Erie. The passing trough will re-tighten the pressure gradient across the area today...with 925 mb winds increasing to the 25-35 knot range over much of the area...and around 40 knots or slightly higher immediately northeast of Lake Erie. While temperature advection aloft will be roughly neutral...diurnal warming of the lower levels will result in low level lapse rates steepening enough again to mix a significant portion of the winds from aloft down to the surface... resulting in gusts likely reaching the 40-45 mph range again along the Lake Erie shoreline and across the Niagara Frontier. Cannot even completely rule out a few slightly higher gusts in the above area... however at this point forecast confidence is not quite high enough to warrant another Wind Advisory...especially when considering the marginal nature of the event and all of the other wind events we have experienced lately. Elsewhere gusts will mostly range from 30- 40 mph today...with both sustained winds and gusts then subsiding late today and this evening with warm advection aloft and diminishing mixing. KEY MESSAGE 3...A low pressure system will pass by the upper Great Lakes Tuesday and to our north Tuesday night, with gusty winds and rain that mixes with snow across the higher terrain through Wednesday. A low pressure system will pass by the upper Great Lakes Tuesday and then to our north Tuesday night. Meanwhile, it will send its trailing cold front into the region Tuesday evening-night. A strengthening LLJ (+50 knots) ahead and along the front will lead to some gusts up to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon-evening, especially northeast of the lakes. Anticipating mainly rain with the front when it arrives but it will overtime turn colder as we move into Wednesday such that p-type will begin to mix or transition to snow across the higher terrain. KEY MESSAGE 4...Progressively turning colder Wednesday night and Thursday with the potential for some accumulating snows, especially in the favored areas east and southeast of the lakes. A complex scenario will then unfold Wednesday evening-night as a surface low develops and tracks northeast passing to our south and east. That said...depending on the track we could see some accumulating snow as we move through Wednesday night and on Thursday, especially in the typically favored lake enhanced areas. However...at this point there still remains a 'high' degree of uncertainty in the guidance with the overall evolution of this system. One thing does appear more than certain...we will turn colder as we progress through the later half of the week. Marine Winds will increase again today as another trough passes just north of the lakes and induces a tightening of the pressure gradient. Winds will consequently increase back to 30 knots on Lake Ontario...and to low-end gale force on Lake Erie. Winds will then diminish some again tonight...but will remain elevated through midweek. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for NYZ006>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Tuesday for LOZ044- 045. |
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