Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Light And Variable. Rain Likely This Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots. Showers Likely Thursday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest And Increasing To 30 Knots. Showers Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 10 To 13 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 63 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 133pm EDT Sunday Oct 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing chances for thunderstorms Tuesday across western NY. A few storms may be strong to severe. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rainfall continues today across western NY with the remnants of post tropical cyclone Isaias. 2) The next round of rain showers arrives late Monday night with strong thunderstorms possible across western NY Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Rainfall continues today across western NY with the remnants of post tropical cyclone Isaias. Latest satellite imagery shows a large scale upper low across eastern KY drifting east with the remnants of Isaias. Ahead of the low, deep southerly moisture transport has led to extensive cloud cover and rain for much of the eastern seaboard. Heaviest precipitation early this afternoon has been placed across central and eastern PA while much of western NY remains just outside the area of best synoptic scale forcing. Widespread, stronger returns as noted by regional radars will begin shifting across the NY/PA border this afternoon. NBM probability of exceeding 0.25" of rainfall maximizes from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region through the remainder of the Sunday. Rainfall will taper off from west to east overnight into early Monday morning as the upper level disturbance shifts east across the Mid-Atlantic and a ridge of high pressure builds up from the south. For far western NY, including the Niagara Frontier, minimal rainfall has been reported as of midday Sunday. This was being hinted at with the eastward shifts in model guidance over the past 24-36 hours for the main precipitation shield. However, a deformation band developing over southwestern Ontario will begin to shift eastward later this afternoon and provide another chance precipitation with this system, though accumulations will likely max out near a tenth of an inch. KEY MESSAGE 2...The next round of rain showers arrives late Monday night with strong thunderstorms possible across western NY Tuesday. The next low pressure system will pass east across the Great Lakes late Monday and into Tuesday, pushing a cold front southeast across the region Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front and aligned with a leading shortwave, expect another round of rain showers Tuesday from the Niagara Frontier east towards the North Country. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out as mid-level lapse rates approach 7 C/km with the presence of an EML and effective shear of 35-40 kt thanks to a 50 kt jet at 700mb. While there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with high temperatures across the region Tuesday, latest ensemble trends have shifted the track of the low slightly farther north. This will allow portions of western NY to remain under better warm southwesterly flow as 850mb temps climb around 14-16 degC, near the climatological 99th percentile for mid-October. This could support temperatures 10 degF above normal, especially across the Southern Tier. NBM shows Tuesday afternoon highs for locations north of I-90 with considerable spread still mainly tied to the timing of precipitation, cloud cover, and the frontal passage. This being said, storms will likely remain elevated due to poor low- level lapse rates, but additional shifts in the low track could provide more limited cloud cover improving boundary layer destabilization and potential for afternoon thunderstorm development over western NY. Storm Prediction Center has highlighted western NY with a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe storms. Marine Rain showers are expected to continue through much of the day today before moving off to the east headed into Monday morning. Winds will be variable Monday morning before turning southwesterly Monday night into Tuesday across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the next cold frontal passage. Rain showers expected Tuesday and southwest winds 10-20 kt will turn northwesterly Tuesday night behind the front. Waves will be 3 to 6 feet Tuesday which may bring another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure will build over the Great Lakes for mid-week veering winds to out of the north by Thursday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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