Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South And Diminishing To 10 Knots Or Less. Mainly Clear. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Friday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...South Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 65 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244pm EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2025 Synopsis A sharp cold front will slowly ease its way south across our area through this evening...and in the process will generate some desperately- needed rainfall. In its wake...strong Canadian high pressure will build across our region Wednesday and Thursday and provide us with dry weather...along with the coolest temperatures of the fall so far. Expect highs mainly in the 50s both Wednesday And Thursday with Wednesday and Thursday nigheights both likely to feature a frost or freeze across many areas away from the immediate lakeshores. Continued dry weather and a gradual warming trend will then follow for Friday and the weekend as the high slides off the New England coast. Near Term - Through Wednesday Regional radar shows areas of showers from Michigan to Ontario and the Ohio Valley to northern New York this afternoon. An area of light showers extends across the forecast area. Much needed rainfall occurred across Niagara and northern Erie counties this morning, with rainfall totals of 1.50-1.80". A cold front is located from western Lake Ontario to central Lake Erie this afternoon. Light to moderate showers along the front will slowly move through the forecast area through this evening. An area of deep moisture convergence ahead of the cold front will support light to moderate showers across the Finger Lakes region and Eastern Lake Ontario region this evening. The threat for thunderstorms has trended down with warming cloud tops and lack of instability, however the environment immediately ahead of the front is still prone to a rumble of thunder. Anafrontal light rain from Michigan to Ontario will move into the forecast area this evening. Dry air will build into the region tonight, with showers ending from west to east by Wednesday morning. Additional average basin rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00" are possible across western NY, and 1-1.50" are possible across north- central NY. Canadian high pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday. A cool, northerly flow will result in chilly air across the region with daytime highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, an abrupt change from our very warm weather early in the week. Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night Strong cold front that brought the much needed rainfall to western and north-central NY will have shifted east into New England, while an expansive area of Canadian-sourced high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes will be building southeast across the lower Great Lakes region. This feature will bring a return to dry, but notably MUCH cooler conditions for this period, with potential for frost and freeze headlines being the main item of interest for both Wednesday night and Thursday night. A secondary shot of even cooler air flowing into the eastern Great Lakes behind it with 850mb temperatures plummeting to between -2C and -5C (coldest North Country) for Wednesday night and Thursday. There are two main factors that will keep temperatures from tanking further Wednesday night: 1. Surface winds will likely not completely decouple from flow aloft with the center of the surface high still located well to our west over Michigan. 2. This will be more localized, however despite the plethora of dry air, the cool northerly flow may produce some extra lake clouds south of Lake Ontario Wednesday night. Overall frost coverage may be limited to some degree owed to these two aforementioned factors, however there is potential that our normal colder areas see a freeze. Dry and cool weather continue Thursday with daytime highs averaging 5-10 degrees below normal, which will equate to the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks not getting out of the mid/upper 40s under full sunshine. Center of the cool Canadian high will then slowly drift from western to eastern NY Thursday night. After an already chilly day to start and IDEAL radiational cooling conditions setting up, temperatures will quickly fall back through the evening hours, with much of the forecast area dropping into the mid 30s and lower (mid/upper 20s normally colder areas), possibly requiring frost/freeze headlines areawide. WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) will begin aloft second half of Thursday night, however with a stout radiational inversion in place, this will have little impact on surface temperatures. After a chilly start Friday morning, diurnal heating under near full sunshine will eventually erode the radiational inversion allowing the return flow of warmer air aloft to mix down to the surface, with daytime highs returning to near average readings. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Continued gradual WAA advection will trend daytime highs back to a little above average for the weekend into the start of next week. Both the NBM/ensemble and deterministic medium range guidance have struggled with locking in on the overall pattern evolution for late in the weekend into the start of next week, battling with the northward extent of a coastal low making its' way up the Eastern Seaboard, the southward reach of a low pressure system moving across eastern Canada, and the strength and position of high pressure relative to these to systems. Simply put, there are a lot of factors at play here. Latest 07/01Z NBM/ensemble and 07/00Z deterministic medium range guidance are currently fairly well aligned that a strong area of surface high pressure will set up over southern Quebec Sunday and remain ridged southwestward across lower Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley through Monday, which would provide a dry forecast right through the holiday weekend. That said, some differences remain in the upper level pattern evolution. This is again somewhat of a change from the previous guidance package, so further fluctuations will definitely be possible going forward being six to seven days down the road, keeping overall forecast confidence low to medium for the tail end of the period. Marine A sharp cold front will gradually ease its way south across the Lower Great Lakes this evening...bringing fairly widespread showers and perhaps a couple isolated thunderstorms. In its wake... winds will freshen and veer to northwesterly and then northerly tonight and early Wednesday. This will bring advisory- worthy conditions to areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario much of the time between tonight and Wednesday night...and to areas southwest of Dunkirk on Lake Erie. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 2pm EDT Wednesday for LEZ040. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 5am EDT Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 8am EDT Thursday for LOZ043-044. |
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