Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North. Sunny. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 63 Degrees.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150am EDT Fri September 18 2020
A period of chilly fall weather with some nighttime frost away from the lakes is expected into the weekend. Though there will be lake effect clouds at times, dry weather is expected through the weekend and even into early next week as high pressure dominates our weather pattern.
Near Term - Through Today
Progressively colder low-level northerly flow generating a broken area of lake effect stratocumulus clouds across central Lake Ontario into western New York. Some light echoes also showing up on radar over Lake Ontario north of Monroe Country. At this point, this area staying stationary over the lake, but will have to see if this these echoes hold together or even if they reach inland south of Lake Ontario, as some mesoscale guidance indicates.
Later tonight, temperatures will drop as low as the mid 30s over inland sections of the North Country with patchy frost. Marginal, but based on this issued a Frost Advisory for Lewis County. A more persistent northeast wind off Lake Ontario will keep temperatures from falling below 40F over rest of the area.
Chilly day on Friday, even with a fair amount of sunshine. May be scattered fair weather cu in the afternoon downstream of moistening off Lake Ontario. Again overall airmass is dry, so not expecting a lot of clouds, even with the cool air aloft. Highs on Friday reach the mid 50s over higher terrain and probably struggle to reach 60F over most of our region. Tug Hill may struggle to see highs even reach 50F. Normal highs at our climate sites (BUF/ROC/ART) are in the lower 70s.
Short Term - Tonight Through Sunday
High pressure over the Great Lakes will expand over the region for the weekend, bringing quiet weather with mostly clear skies and below normal temperatures. Cooling temperatures, clear skies, and weak surface winds will bring the potential for a frost or freeze inland from the lakes Friday night and Saturday night. Cold air advection will bring 850H temperatures down to around -2C through Saturday afternoon. Given the over-water instability, could be some lake clouds at times off Lake Ontario, but coverage will be scattered at best as airmass moving in is quite dry overall.
Temperatures will be in the low 50s to near 60 from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively for daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures Friday night and Saturday night will be in the low 30s inland to around 40 closer to the lakes. As of right now, best chance to see temps dip into the upper 30s even near the lakes would be Saturday night with high pressure right overhead.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
High pressure will center over the NY/VT/QC border by Sunday night and slowly drift south and elongate along the Atlantic seaboard through the middle of the week. This will provide fair quiet weather with slow day to day warming during the long term period. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s; and temperatures will warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.
Some model guidance (primarily the ECMWF) does show what remains of Hurricane Teddy will approach northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes late Tuesday afternoon. Any impacts from this system should be minimal as of now, and limited to just some high clouds from the western edge of the storm.
As high pressure builds north of the lakes this evening, resurgence of stronger ne winds and higher waves expected with Small Craft Advisories in place for many areas as outlined below. Winds and waves will begin to diminish Friday into Friday night.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ003-004. Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for NYZ001-002. Frost Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for NYZ008.
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LEZ040. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ030-042. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Saturday for LOZ043- 044.