Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
| Overnight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East Less Than 10 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Friday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 49 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 735pm EDT Monday May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms expanded across the entire forecast area Tuesday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat today through Tuesday. 2) Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening, supporting a threat for damaging winds. 3) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night). 4) Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat today through Tuesday. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the eastern United States today while gradually shifting its ridge axis eastward tonight and Tuesday. As such, deep southwesterly flow will advect warm Gulf air into the region helping to surge temperatures well into the 80s and a few climatologically warmer locations toward 90. Today will be the warmer of the two days, as the ridge axis lies overhead. However, for locations closer to the lakeshores, expect temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s due to the air coming off of the cold lake waters. NBM high temperatures continue to trend too warm, but it is not as overdone as it has been in previous runs. This being said, continued to lower high temperatures a couple to a few degrees for locations. While temperatures are warm, dewpoint temperatures will range in the 60s supporting lower humidity values, which will keep the potential for heat headline criteria low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening supporting a threat for damaging winds. A weak shortwave trough will ride along the western edge of the ridge this afternoon and evening, introducing a forcing mechanism along with a 40-50 knot low-level jet to graze the western edges of the the forecast area, which will help support a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Due to the warm, moist, unstable air mass already overhead, and the introduction of the low-level jet later this evening, any storm that does develop could become severe. This being said, a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (Threat Level 1 of 5) is in place across the region, with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night). As the mid-level ridge axis departs east Tuesday, the next mid-level trough will jut northwestward out of the longwave trough overhead of the western half of the CONUS. Its associated surface low will continue to track northeastward across Ontario and Quebec, Canada dragging an attendant cold front across the region Tuesday night. Despite the unfavorable timing of the front's arrival being past peak diurnal heating hours, there continue to be high confidence in a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening and Tuesday night ahead of the strong cold front's arrival. CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the primary hazard threat. However, large hail can't be ruled out as forecast soundings continue to highlight "fat" CAPE profiles. Additionally, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either with Storm Relative Helicity values of 200 to 300 m^2/s^2. This all being said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to place the entire region under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms. With a 2% risk for tornadoes, 15% risk for damaging winds, and 5% risk for large hail. KEY MESSAGE 4...Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettle weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. An area of low pressure will then approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. Marine Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue to gradually tighten through Tuesday, which is currently supporting the moderate southwesterlies and very choppy conditions on the western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Winds will increase further Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, supporting winds and waves worthy of Small Craft Advisory criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by Tuesday afternoon, before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario late Tuesday night through Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop Tuesday through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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