Lake Ontario - Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay including Irondequoit Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...West Winds To 30 Knots. Snow And Rain Late This Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Early This Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain Showers Late. Waves 8 To 11 Feet Building To 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet.|
|Tonight...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 25 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 9 To 13 Feet Subsiding To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Rain Showers Likely. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Saturday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 47 Degrees.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1238pm EST Wednesday Dec 2 2020
Snow east of Lake Ontario will taper off by this evening. Otherwise high pressure building into the Ohio Valley will bring a return to dry weather tonight through Thursday, although it will remain windy especially northeast of the lakes. A cold front will then slowly cross the area Friday with rain and wet snow showers, especially northeast of the lakes. Temperatures will remain chilly and close to normal for early December Friday through early next week.
Near Term - Through Thursday
Radar imagery showing a diminishing area of synoptic scale snow east of Lake Ontario early this afternoon, with embedded lake and upslope enhancement on the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks as boundary layer flow veers westerly over the lake. Deep moisture and synoptic scale support will rapidly diminish east of Lake Ontario through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in diminishing areal coverage and intensity of snow. The last of the snow showers over the Tug Hill and Oswego County will taper off and end early this evening. Additional accumulations after 1pm are expected to be an inch or so at lower elevations, and a few inches across the Tug Hill Plateau.
Otherwise for the rest of the area the snow has ended, and skies are clearing for sunshine across the lower elevations of Western NY. Lake effect/upslope clouds will hold strong across the Southern Tier, but even here a few brief breaks of sun may develop later this afternoon.
Tonight through Thursday surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. This will maintain dry weather across the eastern Great Lakes. The airmass is just cold enough to support the re-development of lake effect clouds northeast of the lakes later tonight through Thursday. This will bring mostly cloudy skies east and northeast of Lake Ontario later tonight through Thursday. A few sprinkles or flurries cannot be ruled out, but it will be mainly dry given the shallow inversion heights. Lake effect clouds will also develop northeast of Lake Erie, bringing an increase in cloud cover along a line from Buffalo to Rochester later tonight through at least a portion of Thursday.
A fairly strong gradient will be maintained this afternoon through Thursday between high pressure to our south, and an approaching cold front moving into Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. Wind gusts will reach 35-40 mph areawide through this afternoon. Tonight through Thursday the higher wind gusts will be more confined to areas northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, with gusts of 35-40 mph across the Niagara Frontier and Jefferson County, and 20-30 mph farther inland.
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
A shortwave trough will sharpen across the Central Great Lakes Friday. A southwest wind will increase across the region as a cold front approaches from the west. Cold air advection and increasing moisture ahead of the front and shortwave trough axis will provide support for the development of showers. Temperatures will be rising into the 40s through the day so mainly rain showers are expected. Snow showers are possible on the Tug Hill where temperatures are slightly lower. While widespread showers are likely, lake enhancement is expected northeast of the Lakes into Friday night. The front will track across the region into Friday night and winds will become westerly with lake effect snow showers expected east of the Lakes. Minor accumulations are expected at this time. Overnight lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
There is increasing confidence that a Nor'easter will develop and move off the east coast this weekend. Details as to the track of this system are to be determined however impacts may stretch as far north as Western NY and North Central NY. High pressure will move across eastern Canada this weekend and a northerly wind will keep a chilly airmass in place. If the coastal system tracks further north accumulating snow is possible. Cold air advection on the back side of this departing low will likely produce a period of lake effect showers off both Lakes into early next week.
Daytime highs mostly in the low 30s over the higher terrain to the mid and upper 30s for the lower elevations.
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Thursday. Meanwhile low pressure will continue to exit across northern Quebec tonight, then a cold front will begin to approach from the Upper Great Lakes Thursday. This will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the eastern Great Lakes. Sustained winds will peak near 30 knots this afternoon and evening, then continue at around 25 knots through Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will last on both Lakes Erie and Ontario through Friday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for NYZ006>008.
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Thursday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Thursday for LOZ042>045.