Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Late This Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers Late. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Saturday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Mainly Clear, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 132am EDT Tuesday August 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool; lake effect rain showers diminish today, with afternoon convection lingering east of Lake Ontario into the early evening. 2) Showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday and last through Friday. Key Message 1...Cool; lake effect rain showers diminish today, with afternoon convection lingering east of Lake Ontario into the early evening. A chilly airmass to start the day today, with 850 hPa temperatures around +7 to +8C over the warm lake waters aiding in lake effect rain showers. As drier air approaches activity over and off Lake Erie will continue to weaken, while a still moderate, but narrow plume of lake effect rain east and southeast of Lake Ontario will continue just past sunrise. As drier air and daytime increased mixing heigheights weaken the organization of the lake effect rain band expect this band of rain to weaken to scattered showers by late afternoon. An upper level trough axis will pass across eastern zones this afternoon, and this feature combined with very limited daytime instability will trigger a few showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Limited shear will likely leave this activity as just garden variety storms that will end through the late afternoon and early evening with the loss of daytime heating and now on the backside of the recently passed mid level trough axis. Key Message 2...Showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday and last through Friday. A shortwave trough will guide a cold front towards our region Thursday...with this front nearly stalling across our region through Friday morning as an upper level low deepens and slides southward from Hudson Bay. A southerly flow of moisture ahead of this front will boost PWAT (Precipitable Water) values upwards towards 1.5 inches, that with an increasing warm cloud depth to 11K-12K feet and short MBE vectors could bring a period of moderate rain showers and thunderstorms. Any training of storms along this stalling front could pose a risk for at least poor drainage flooding. A weaker wind flow aloft leading to 0-6 km bulk shear vectors less than 30 knots suggests the overall severe threat will remain limited. This front will then push eastward later Friday as surface high pressure from the northern Plains expands eastward, with a drier airmass diminishing the rain showers. Marine A cool upper level low will exit the eastern Great Lakes today, with surface high pressure building towards the Lakes from the Ohio Valley. As winds subside this morning, waves will lower below small craft thresholds on Lake Ontario with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) ending. With the cool upper level low still nearby, waterspout formation is still possible through the morning hours. A brief period of non-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely later today and through Wednesday night. A southerly flow on Thursday ahead of a cold front will bring choppy waters to the Lakes, with a chance for small craft advisory conditions over the northeast waters of Lake Ontario. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6am EDT early this morning for NYZ004>007. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for LOZ043>045. |
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