Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East. A Chance Of Rain Showers Late. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest To 30 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West To 30 Knots. Rain Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...West Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Tuesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers During The Day. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 30 Knots. Mainly Clear, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 553am EDT Sat April 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence for accumulating snow Monday night. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers with embedded thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms through tonight. 2) Late season snow and winter's chill Sunday night through Tuesday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers with embedded thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms through tonight. A frontal boundary to our south will lift back northward today, ushering in a return of warmth, instability and convection. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be again into the 60s...with mid 70s through the downslope Genesee Valley and far WNY where an easterly flow will downslope off higher terrain. This warmth, and a return of PWAT (Precipitable Water) values 1.25 to 1.50 inches will fuel instability. MUCAPE values will approach 1000 J/KG across far WNY, with northeast-east flow across the North Country leaving the atmosphere with much less instability. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the daylight hours today, will become more concentrated ahead of a strong cold front. CAMs bring a line of showers and thunderstorms into our region after sunset this evening. Instability will be quickly fleeting, as well as a lowering to SRH values and wind shear. There could be a narrow window this evening for severe storms across WNY, for which Storm Prediction Center has our region in a marginal to slight risk. Damaging winds are the primary threat, with an isolated tornado or large hail the secondary threats. Additionally the high values of precipitation water in the atmosphere will lend to moderate to heavy rain overnight, with basin average 0.50 to 1.00, and locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. This rain will elevate river and creek flows with just a low probability at this time for a return to flooding. KEY MESSAGE 2...Late season snow and winter's chill Sunday night through Tuesday. Following the passage of Sunday's cold front a much colder airmass will drop across the eastern Great Lakes region Sunday night through Tuesday. Temperatures at 850 hPa will drop to around -8 to -9 Monday, and then down to -13 to -15C Tuesday with the passage of a second shortwave trough within the mean mid level flow. Any snow accumulation Sunday afternoon through Monday will be minor and mainly reserved for the higher terrain. By Monday night, with the passage of the second shortwave trough, and temperatures below freezing across the region, falling snow will be able to accumulate with one to two inches expected across our region, with up to 4 inches on the hill tops of SW NYS. Accumulating snow will end by Tuesday morning behind the shortwave trough and solar effects of a strong April sun angle. Highs Tuesday are expected to be some 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Marine An easterly flow ahead of a warm front will bring waves to around four feet on the western waters of Lake Ontario today, for which a short-lived small craft advisory will be in effect. Winds will veer to southerly later today and tonight ahead of a cold front, with waves increasing along the eastern shoreline of Lake Ontario tonight. Behind a cold front westerly winds will then drive waves up past four feet across all remaining ice-free lake waters later tonight and through Sunday evening on Lake Erie and through Monday afternoon on Lake Ontario. Hydrology Tonawanda Creek remains in flood this early morning, with flow heigheights continuing to decrease. Low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts will bring additional moderate to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms today, and especially tonight. There will be a low risk for additional flooding due to our still nearly-saturated ground conditions. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10pm EDT this evening for LOZ042. |
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