Lake Ontario - Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots. Clear. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Thursday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Light And Variable. Clear. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Friday...Light And Variable Winds. Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers During The Day, Then Showers Likely Saturday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1019pm EDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Synopsis Lingering clouds across the Southern Tier will clear out from north to south overnight, with clear and cold conditions settling into the region. An expansive area of Canadian high pressure will then assure us of fair, dry weather Thursday through Friday. While some showers will be likely this coming weekend, especially on Saturday, a good amount of dry time will be built in. Looking further down the road, we can look forward to a summer-like warm up Sunday and Monday with the mercury surging well into the 70s and even a few spots into the 80s. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6pm THURSDAY EVENING/... ...Unseasonably Cold Tonight... Northerly upslope flow continues to support plenty of low clouds across the Southern Tier late this evening. Skies have cleared nicely everywhere else. The clearing line will continue steadily advance southward, with clearing reaching areas near the PA state line by the wee hours of the morning. Center of expansive area of Canadian high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will expand southeast over the lower Great Lakes overnight into Thursday. This will set the stage for a very chilly latter April night, with cool airmass remaining in place Thursday. The upside is that feature will provide dry weather, clearing skies tonight/abundant sunshine Thursday, and mainly light winds. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 20s away from the immediate lakeshores, and even some teens in the normal cold spots of the North Country. Despite plenty of strong April sunshine on Thursday, highs will only recover into the upper 40s to low 50s in most areas. .SHORT TERM /6pm THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will remain camped over our region Thursday night and Friday. Subsidence will limit cloud cover, and this lack of cloud cover and light winds, with a dry lower atmosphere will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions Thursday night, with lows near freezing along the lakeshore, to lower 20s inland. A warm front will near our region Friday night with increasing clouds and rain showers reaching the western Southern Tier late. Ahead of the rain, southeast downslope winds could reach 35 mph along the Lake Erie shoreline. Warm front enters our region Saturday, and accompanied by a shortwave aloft a brief period of rain showers is expected. Basin average rainfall will be on the order of a tenth to a third of an inch. Some thunder may occur with limited MUCAPE values less than 500 J/KG, especially over Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier. A few showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, may linger behind the front later Saturday and Saturday night with again limited instability. Mild Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s inland and east of Lake Ontario, to near 60 across the favorable downslope areas of WNY. Long Term - Sunday Through Tuesday Heading into the later half of the weekend and into the first half of the new work week, a ridge will lie across the Great Lakes, while a broad trough will span across the Rockies and Central Plains. Additionally, a shortwave trough will will be in the midst of passing north into the ridge. This pattern will translate to an initial surface low (supported by the shortwave) to wash out across northern Quebec, meanwhile another surface low will develop across the northern Plains. These surface features combined with the building ridge aloft, will support the initial surface low's cold front to stall out just north of the area, supporting a brief glimpse at summer like conditions with temperatures warming up into the 70s and afternoon diurnally driven convection. Expect similar such conditions, though a few degrees warmer to prevail through Monday as the second surface low traverses northeast across Lake Superior. As the surface low marches toward Quebec Monday night through Tuesday, its attendant surface cold front will approach the region from the west and then cross from west to east. Initially expect some thunderstorms ahead of the front's arrival Monday night and then rain showers with the front's passage Tuesday. Additionally with the front's passage Tuesday, expect temperatures to be cooler than Sunday and Monday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s, though still well above average for the end of April. A secondary cold front will then cross the area from north to south Wednesday supporting a small chance for a few rain showers. Marine Northerly winds will continue to diminish overnight, with choppy conditions on both lakes gradually improving. Expansive high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes this evening will then gradually build across the lower Great Lakes overnight and Thursday. This will significantly lower winds and waves tonight. Local lake breeze circulations will develop Thursday, with onshore winds along all the Great Lakes shorelines in the afternoon. Northeast winds may continue to run 10-14 knots on Lake Erie with some chop Thursday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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