Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming North. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds Less Than 10 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tuesday...Light And Variable Winds Becoming Northeast Around 10 Knots. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers During The Day, Then Showers Likely Wednesday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1022pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022
High pressure will move across the Great Lakes which will support fair dry weather tonight through Tuesday night. Showery weather can then be expected for the remainder of the work week.
Near Term - Through Monday
High pressure centered across Wisconsin will expand across the entire Great Lakes region overnight. This will promote dry weather overnight, although there may be some lingering cloud cover due to residual low moisture and a subsidence inversion. If clouds do scatter out, patchy fog may develop across the Western Southern Tier river valleys. Otherwise it will be a notably cooler night with lows in the 40s.
The expansive area of high pressure will build across southern Ontario and the Lower Great lakes on Monday. While this will provide fair dry weather, still going to take a while to get rid of the strato-cu, especially during the first half of the day. Much cooler day with most areas only forecast to climb into the lower 60s. Normal max temps at this point in the year are within a degree or so of 70.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday Night
Fair and dry weather Monday night as surface high pressure drift east across southern Quebec then off into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday. Seasonably cool Monday night with lows generally in the 40s, might be a few pockets in the upper 30s around 40F. Therefore can't completely rule out some isolated frost, this would be for the S. Tier (Cattaraugus and Allegany Co.) and east of Lake Ontario (Lewis Co.) as the growing season is in full swing. However...the short night and developing warm advection processes will 'likely' keep this from occuring. Will not add this to the HWO for now. Temps on Tuesday will then rebound nicely into the 70s.
Tuesday night...a warm frontal boundary sneaks up across the eastern Great Lakes overnight. It then sets up shop just north of Lake Ontario Wednesday in a west to east fashion across the North Country. This will leave most areas firmly within the warm sector, so have bumped temps up a few more degrees with solid 70s everywhere. Wednesday night...there still is some discrepancies with the evolution of the surface low tracking NNE towards the Great Lakes region. However...it does look like we will see increasing chances for showers as we head into Thursday.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
A longwave trough over the Midwest will deepen as a northern and southern stream upper low continue to phase on Thursday. With the area still within the warm sector behind the associated warm front to the north Thursday, a bit more humidity will accompany high temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s not out of the question across the lower terrain areas. As the trough pushes eastward, it will further deepen to form a single closed low over the upper Great Lakes, which will then swing northeast towards James Bay. This will push a cold front and prefrontal trough through the area, bringing a a round of widespread showers from west to east on Thursday and overnight into Friday. Latest long range guidance still shows discrepancies in the evolution of this system, but has trended towards a later frontal passage which may allow enough daytime instability to grow and produce more widespread thunderstorm activity across western portions of the CWA Thursday afternoon...Likewise, a later FROPA scenario may even allow eastern portions of the area to stay mostly dry during the day.
The main cold front tied to the low now over Quebec Province will cross the area on Friday, bringing a secondary round of lighter showers to the area and ushering in cooler temperatures. Shower chances will taper off from west to east through the day...Though as previously alluded to, there remains some uncertainty in the overall timing of the frontal passage which will ultimately impact high temperatures and how quickly the area is able to dry out. A weak upper level ridge and surface high pressure building over the Great Lakes should then provide for a mainly dry Memorial Day weekend.
Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Criteria most of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. SE winds could result in brief period of choppy conditions on Lake Erie on Wednesday though.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories