Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast


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5 - 10


5 - 15



The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ042 Forecast Issued: 433 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Today...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers Early. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Tonight...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East Less Than 10 Knots. Sunny. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.
Saturday Night...Light And Variable Winds. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640am EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A cold front will continue to sag through the region this morning bringing some showers and a few thunderstorms. A fresh Canadian airmass and expansive high pressure behind the front will guarantee fair and cooler weather this weekend. Mid summer heat and humidity will then build across our region for much of next week with apparent temperatures in most areas into the mid 90s to around 100.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Cold front continuing to make its way into the region early this morning. Broken band of weakening convection along the front will move south through the area this morning. Current radar imagery suggesting that overall coverage will be quite scattered in nature any many locations will remain dry. Frontal boundary drops south of the region by mid to late morning with clearing skies behind it through the remainder of the day. It will be cooler today with high temperatures a solid 10 degrees cooler than Thursday with highs in the 70s.

Expansive high pressure over the upper Great Lakes this evening will slowly drift southeast during the course of tonight. This will guarantee fair dry weather with temperatures falling into the 50s.

Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
Superb weather for the weekend as upper level troughing quickly shuffles eastward Saturday, allowing an expansive ridge of high pressure to build over the Great Lakes. This will keep the area dry, and outside of a few passing mid/high clouds Sunday, under mostly clear skies.

Temperatures Saturday will initially be on the 'cool' side for June behind the trough, which will translate to comfortable highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. As the surface ridge crests east of the region Sunday and moves off the East Coast by Sunday night, temps will get a boost into the mid/upper 70s, likely a few readings in the 80s across far western NY. Lows Saturday night will be rather chilly with a range of 40s across the interior and low 50s closer to the lakes. Warmer for Sunday night with a range of 60s across the region, possibly near 70 close to the Lake Erie shoreline.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
...Heat Wave To Impact The Region Next Week... A very strong 500mb ridge will anchor itself across much of the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through much of the week, which will dominate the sensible weather across the eastern Great Lakes. NAEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate this ridge will be of anomalous strength with 500mb heigheights in the 99th percentile, if not exceeding the maximum climatological values for the Northeast for nearly the whole week. Latest runs of the deterministic ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) in particular continue to forecast overhead 500mb heigheights reaching 600dam, with coincident 850H temps near +24C at times. Deep anticyclonic flow around the resultant Bermuda High will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. Given the strong signal from nearly all available long range guidance packages, confidence is high in a prolonged stretch of oppressive summer heat and humidity lasting through much of the week.

Forecast thinking has not changed much from previous updates in regards to expected temps and heat indices next week. Daytime highs Monday will feature widespread upper 80s and lower 90s, remaining a bit cooler across the North Country in the upper 70s to mid 80s as slightly cooler airmass initially lingers in the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected. Highest temps will be in the interior valleys, while cooler temps will be found just northeast of both lakes (including the Buffalo area) as a persistent southwest flow advects cooler marine air off the lakes. This heat comes as dewpoints climb into the low 70s, which will cause overall heat indicies in the afternoon to climb into the mid 90s to lower 100s. Temps are expected to be a few degrees lower on Thursday, back down into the upper 80s and low 90s. For context, daytime highs average the upper 70s for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown during the days of June 17-21.

Even though heat indices will peak in the afternoon hours each day next week, nighttime will offer very little (if any) relief. Low temperatures from Monday night onwards are expected to only be in the low to mid 70s, with high humidity likely making for VERY muggy sleeping weather.

Otherwise...The primary forecast uncertainty through much of next week continues to be on convective potential. Guidance continues to indicate a series of "ridge rider" showers and storms periodically cresting over the ridge and into the eastern Great Lakes region, the first batch of which could potentially arrive as early as Monday night. In addition, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s, daytime surface based instability will likely be present each afternoon...Though the strong ridge should preclude much of the diurnal convective potential with strong capping expected to be in place. Given the low confidence in shower and storm timing and coverage, Probability of Precipitation values remain on the low side (15-30%) through Thursday.

A cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes through this morning. Westerly winds behind the front should remain below 15 knots today, before becoming more northerly and weakening tonight. High pressure will build back across the waters with light winds and generally favorable boating conditions during the weekend.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories


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