Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...East Winds 10 Knots Or Less. A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Becoming Mainly Clear. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1041pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
A few more showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight along with some fog and drizzle which could even linger through Wednesday morning. Dry weather will return for Wednesday afternoon before a cold front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday night through Thursday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
A few small convective clusters developed across WNY to Finger Lakes late afternoon into the early evening as cold front shifted across from the north. More recently a very narrow line of thunderstorms developed across parts of Buffalo Metro before slowly diminishing while settling toward the Southern Tier in the last hour. Also appears that cluster of showers and some thunderstorms along north shore of Lake Ontario may have just enough support from weak shortwave to make the south shore of Lake Ontario vcnty of Orleans and Monroe counties after midnight. Otherwise, just a few showers overnight as the axis of vorticity drops across our region.
Weak north/northeast flow behind the cold front with some moisture trapped beneath the frontal inversion could result in low clouds, patchy drizzle and fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. Higher terrain south of Lake Ontario into the Southern Tier most favored for any persistent drizzle and fog. Clouds, drizzle, and fog will eventually break for increasing sunshine later Wednesday as a drier airmass advects into the region. A bit breezy near south shore of Lake Ontario in the morning. Coolest readings in the afternoon upper 60s to near 70F will be there, while mid 70s will be common elsewhere.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
Surface high pressure expands across western and north central NY Wednesday night. Dry conditions are expected. The region remains under northwest flow aloft into Thursday and two shortwave troughs will split the region. Warm air advection will occur with dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. There will likely be showers and storms to the southwest and northwest of the region early in the day. These will track eastward ahead of an approaching cold front and move into western and north central NY through Thursday afternoon. Cloud cover may impact destabilization through the afternoon so chance of severe is low at this time. The cold front will track across the region Thursday night. Much cooler air is behind this front with strong cold air advection continuing through Friday. Steepening lapse rates and a trough overhead will likely induce showers activity Friday afternoon. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to +5-6 C by Friday afternoon which may lead to lake enhanced rain showers.
Dry weather with high pressure building into the region expected Friday night. High temperatures will start off in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday before falling to the low 70s on Friday. Low temperatures will have a similar trend, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night and Thursday night before falling to the low 50s Friday night.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
Subtle mid-level ridging place on Saturday as weak surface high pressure works in over the lower Great Lakes. Mostly dry conditions should last through Saturday evening. A closed upper level low will then quickly drop southeast out of Northern Ontario, dragging its associated cold front across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east overnight Saturday, and last through the day Sunday.
With the slow moving main trough axis still to our west, small chances for showers will linger into Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, cooler temperatures a few degrees below climatological normals are anticipated through the long term. Daytime highs will generally settle in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s, some upper 40s possible on the Tug Hill.
Northeast winds 10-15 knots will develop into Wednesday morning behind a cold front moving south of the lakes. This will produce choppy conditions Wednesday, especially along the south shore of Lake Ontario.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories