Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Showers Likely With Areas Of Drizzle Early, Then A Chance Of Showers With Areas Of Drizzle Late This Evening. Areas Of Drizzle After Midnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Areas Of Drizzle In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Friday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Partly To Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast Less Than 10 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...East Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southeast And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 7 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Tuesday Night. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
718pm EST Thu Nov 26 2020
Weak low pressure will slide by to the north through this evening, followed by another weak disturbance late Friday. Both features will result in drizzle and a few showers which will linger through Saturday. High pressure will then bring dry weather for Sunday. Low pressure is then expected to move across the area and bring a soaking rainfall for Monday.
Near Term - Through Friday
Weak low pressure is over southern Quebec with moist west to southwest flow across our region. Plan on scattered showers and areas of drizzle through the night. Showers may be enhanced some this evening near the lakes with additional low-level moisture. This is occurring just south of Buffalo and also over far northern Niagara County. Could also be some fog over higher terrain through the night where low-level stratus intersects the tops of the hills. Temperatures currently in the upper 40s to lower 50s will only bottom out in the low to mid 40s later tonight which is more typical of daytime highs this time of year.
Friday will remain mostly cloudy with forecast soundings showing lots of moisture trapped beneath a strong inversion. The morning should be mainly dry due to a weakening boundary layer flow, but showers/drizzle will develop in advance of an approaching shortwave Friday afternoon. The cloud cover will keep temperatures rising much, with the forecast hedging toward cooler raw model blends supporting highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
Mid-level trough axis and a weak cold front will move across the region Friday night. This will result in slightly cooler air aloft and provide a bit more moisture and flow for a few showers to develop Friday night. These will also be enhanced by upsloping with the flow becoming westerly late Friday night.
For the most part, expect rain showers with temperatures aloft marginally cold enough to support snow or lake enhancement. By Saturday morning 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -6C, so there may be a few wet snowflakes mixed in on Saturday. Little if any accumulation is expected.
Mid-level ridging builds in Saturday night behind the shortwave, followed by a surface ridge on Sunday. This will finally clear skies out, and allow temperatures to rise back into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Sunday.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
Models continue to come into better agreement with regards to the big picture weather pattern that will impact our area through much of next week. That said, resolving the finer details with respect to sensible weather at the surface is still far from certain, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday period.
For the start of the new work week, confidence continues to grow for the likelihood of a widespread soaking rainfall on Monday. A sharpening upper level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will be in the process of becoming a large deepening cut-off upper level closed low as it phases with a weaker southern stream system while moving into the lower Ohio Valley. This will allow a weak surface low over the lower Mississippi Valley originally associated with the southern upper level feature, to begin to rapidly deepen as it accelerates northeast along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians. Plentiful available moisture and strong forcing will provide somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 hour period of steady rain. At this point, potential rainfall amounts still look to be around or possibly a little more than an inch overall. P-type will remain all liquid with the main area of precipitation on Monday as southerly flow keeps warm air locked in place across the forecast area. There will also be the potential for some stronger winds on Monday, however that will depend on the exact track of the low, which as of now is either right over or just west of our forecast area. This will be critical as to how strong the winds could potentially get. If the surface low remains to the west of the area, stronger winds will be possible.
The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow amounts is not possible at this point.
There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast.
Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the mid-week timeframe.
Gusty southwest winds and higher waves will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions through late this evening on Lake Erie. Another round of gusty winds and choppy waves will develop on Lake Erie on Friday with the approach of a surface trough. Right now it appears that conditions will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LEZ040- 041.