Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
FORECAST FOR LOZ042 CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 353pm EDT Monday Oct 14 2024 Synopsis Chilly with showers and lake enhanced showers possible through mid- week. Some wet snow will mix in tonight and especially late Tuesday and on Tuesday night. Expansive high pressure builds in Wednesday afternoon bringing fair dry weather and a warming trend through the end of the week. Near Term - Through Tuesday Surface low pressure over North Central NY will continue to pull away from the region this afternoon with precipitation tapering off from west to east. We might even some limited sunshine as notably drier air works into the mid-levels, especially across portions of the Niagara Frontier. That said...any sunshine realized will likely be short-lived as cold advection in the wake of the exiting system sends H85 temps down to around -4c. Given the cold air aloft (steep lapse rates) and lingering moisture, clouds will quickly take over where any sunshine materializes. Otherwise...it will be chilly with temps peaking in the 40s. It will also be breezy with surface winds up to 25 mph at time Tonight...Cold Air Advection will continue to funnel in a chilly airmass across the Lower Lakes nudging H850T's down to -5C. With some measure of low- level moisture most areas will continue to see plenty of cloud cover south and southeast of the lakes overnight. The main challenge will be shower/lake induced shower coverage with BUFKIT profiles showing a lack of deep moisture and a stout CAP between 6-8k feet. This should limit shower potential but not completely. Therefore what showers do form will likely only produce light precipitation amounts and the potential for some minor snowfall accumulations. Nothing major...an inch or less in spots. The axis of the mid-level trough will slowly move through the forecast area on Tuesday bringing continued chances for showers. A cold front will then drop south towards the Lower Lakes late in the day. This will bring a better chance of showers which will likely mix with wet snow across the higher terrain. Otherwise it will be another somewhat raw day with temps not climbing out of the 40s and gusty winds supplying an added chill to the November like temperatures. Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday Night One last robust shortwave will dive south through the main longwave trough that has been in place across the Great Lakes since the second half of this past weekend. This feature will not only bring one last uptick in rain and higher elevation snow shower activity Tuesday night into at least a portion of Wednesday, but will also help drag the main upper level trough axis through our region Wednesday, then to our east allowing strong high pressure to start to build in from the west. This expansive area of high pressure will then start to dry things out Wednesday afternoon/evening, and begin what will be a nice stretch of dry weather with day-to-day warming through the end of the work week into the upcoming weekend. Before we get to the dry and warmer weather mentioned above, we will have to endure another 18-24 hours of unsettled, chilly weather at the start of this period. The bulk of the most active weather will be tied to the aforementioned strong shortwave crossing the area that will bring one last bout of widespread, upslope, and lake enhanced precipitation to western and northcentral NY. As has been advertised in previous packages, this will likely bring some light snow accumulations across the higher terrain areas Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday, with a few wet flakes possibly also mixed in for lower elevation areas inland from the lakes but no accumulation. In terms of numbers, expect less than an inch across the higher spots in Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties, with 1-2 inches for the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Expansive high pressure will then build across the area from the west later Wednesday and Wednesday night with dry weather then on tap for the remainder of the period...and beyond. Otherwise, daytime temps some 10-15 degrees below average will continue through Wednesday with highs mainly ranging through the 40s, with some upper 30s hanging in across the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Our day-to-day warming trend is then set to begin Thursday as highs trend closer to average with a range of 50s expected. Seasonably chilly nigheights will continue through the period with mainly upper 20s to low 30s across the higher terrain and North Country Tuesday and Wednesday night, while mid to upper 30s will be found across lower elevations. Expect to tack on a few to several degrees for our Thursday night lows. Long Term - Friday Through Monday The stout ridge associated with an Omega Block over the CONUS will center over the region during the period. At the same time, a surface high will also center over the region for most of the period as well. This will promote fair dry weather for the period. With the ridge and surface high in place, day-to-day warming will bring temperatures above normal for the entire period, with temperatures warming to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Monday afternoon. A trough and cold front approaching from the north on Sunday will at the very least will increase clouds from north to south. Current guidance keeps precipitation to the north of Lake Ontario and northern NY. Depending on if the expected synoptic setup changes, some of the showers could possibly track a bit farther south into portions of the forecast area. Marine Moderate northerlies found on the backside of an exiting area of low pressure will maintain small craft advisories throughout the Lower Great Lakes and on the Lower IAG River late this afternoon and evening. While high pressure building south across the Upper Mississippi valley tonight into Tuesday will somewhat weaken the surface pressure graident over the region...the temporary lowering of wind speeds and corresponding waves will give way to freshening winds again later Tuesday and Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front. This will continue to support SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for Lake Ontario into Wednesday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ030-045. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>044. |
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