Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 35 Knot Gales After Midnight. Rain And Snow Showers This Evening, Then Snow Showers Likely With A Chance Of Rain Showers After Midnight. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 10 To 13 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. |
| Saturday...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 30 Knots. Snow And Rain Showers Likely In The Morning. Waves 10 To 14 Feet Subsiding To 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming East And Diminishing To 10 Knots Or Less Overnight. A Chance Of Snow Overnight. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Sunday...East Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Snow Likely In The Morning, Then Rain And Snow Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds To 30 Knots Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Monday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 40 Knot Gales. Rain And Snow Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Tuesday...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 9 To 13 Feet Subsiding To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South. A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers Wednesday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 758pm EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The High Wind Warning has been expanded to also include Monroe and Cattaraugus counties, with the warning in effect for these two counties until 11am Saturday. The High Wind Warning for Chautauqua county has been extended until 8am Saturday. Winds/gusts for tonight have been bumped up across western New York, particularly within the expanded High Wind Warning area. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Turning very windy through tonight, especially west of the Finger Lakes region. 2) A mix of rain and snow this afternoon will change back over to snow tonight, with impactful accumulations across the higher terrain areas east of both lakes. 3) A very active pattern will continue through early next week with another system bringing the potential for strong winds and large temperature swings, followed by lake effect snow. KEY MESSAGE 1...Turning very windy through tonight, especially west of the Finger Lakes region. A compact clipper low over Lake Huron will glide just north of Lake Ontario and into the Ottawa Valley tonight. As it does so the currently 992mb low will weaken to around 1000mb...though its attendant strong LLJ will still overspread WNY within the cold air advection regime in the wake of the system's trailing cold front. This will allow for relatively steep low level lapse rates and efficient momentum transfer down to the surface...particularly from the late evening into the overnight hours when our strongest overall wind gusts should be realized. With model soundings suggesting that anywhere from 45 to 60 knots of wind will be available near the top of the boundary layer tonight... bumped up both winds and gusts across western New York a bit earlier in this shift...necessitating the expansion of the High Wind Warning a bit further inland to include both Cattaraugus and Monroe counties. Within the expanded Warning area expect gusts of 55-65 mph to become commonplace tonight...with some gusts to as high as 65-70 mph also possible close to Lake Erie. Further inland...gusts to 45- 55 mph will become common across the remaining Wind Advisory area. In tandem with the extension of the wind headlines made by the previous shift...also felt it best to extend the High Wind Warning for Chautauqua county until 8am Saturday to allow a little more time for winds to start to subside. During Saturday the winds will gradually relax from west to east...leaving behind just a modest residual breeze by evening. One other potential issue...The winds snapping southwesterly and increasing along Lake Erie today could cause fast ice on the eastern end of the lake to begin moving and piling against some areas around the Buffalo Harbor. While this setup bears some similarities to the last big ice shove back in February of 2019, the static Lake Erie water level is about 2.5ft lower compared to that year which will greatly hamper the chances for this event to have much impact. In addition, southwesterly winds do not appear to be as strong as the previous event. This is something that will continue to be closely monitored, however confidence remains low and thus have opted to continue forgoing Lakeshore Flood products. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread snow will change over to rain or a rain/snow mix in most areas this afternoon, with continued snow across the higher terrain into Saturday morning leading to impactful accumulations across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, the Tug Hill, and western Adirondacks. The same clipper system moving across the Great Lakes as described in Key Message (1) will also bring several rounds of precipitation to the region through tonight and in some areas, through the day Saturday. The first of these rounds associated with the system's warm front which came in the form of snow is already moving out of Western NY and into the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Temperatures are quickly warming behind this area of precipitation with incoming showers expected to be mainly rain, though some of the higher terrain areas across WNY may continue to see snow as the dominant ptype this afternoon. The main focus for additional impactful snowfall in this area will be this evening through overnight tonight as the system's cold front moves through, causing temperatures to begin falling back into the low 30s and 20s. Wrap around moisture will cause snow showers with a rather notable amount of upslope enhancement to blossom across much of WNY through the night, with the focus for heavier accumulations across the higher terrain south of Buffalo and Batavia. The hilltops of Wyoming County, being generally more N-S oriented, are expected to perform the best in this setup where the upslope component will be maximized with the deeper synoptic moisture aloft. Have converted the previous advisory for Wyoming, Cattaraugus and Southern Erie to a Winter Storm Warning with this update. Snow totals trended just a bit higher and closer to low-end warning range, though there are also concerns with blowing snow given the strong wind profiles as described in Key Message (1). Drifting of the existing snowpack should be fairly limited given the wetter snow characteristic, though the surface winds should produce significantly limited visibilities within the heavier falling snow especially on the ridgetops. Should be noted here that without the upslope enhancement, the lower terrain areas in the Southern Tier and in Southern Erie County should only see minor additional snowfall totals tonight, generally in the 2-4 or 3-5 inch range. For the eastern Lake Ontario region, the forecast generally remains on track from the previous forecast issuance, with only minor adjustments made to snowfall totals in the region. The the cold front that will move through later this afternoon will cause 850mb temps to fall into the -10C to -12C range tonight. Wraparound moisture will help contribute to lake enhanced and upslope snows, with 10 to 18 inches possible across the Tug Hill and western Dacks tonight through early Saturday afternoon before tapering off as the low pulls away from the region. Significantly lower snow amounts are expected across the lower elevations, with storm total amounts of 2 to 5 inches possible. KEY MESSAGE 3...A very active pattern will continue through early next week with another system bringing the potential for strong winds and large temperature swings, followed by lake effect snow. Light snow showers will spread over western NY as a warm front lifts north associated with a deep upper level trough digging into the central CONUS. This will leave much of the area under the warm sector of this deepening cyclone with strong southerly flow Sunday. This will lead to breezy conditions with strong winds possible for downsloping areas off of the Chautauqua Ridge and Allegany mountains with forecast soundings suggesting the presence of a near ridgetop inversion ahead of the main system Monday. Looking at membership from the grand ensemble (GEFS, EC, GEPS), guidance has been pretty consistent with a deep surface low tracking just to our west across MI northeast into Quebec. While there has been a trend towards a delayed passage of this system more early next week and slight westward shifts in the track, this still falls well within local climatology with past high wind events. Grand ensemble members show >40% chance of the surface low deepening below 984mb Monday afternoon over Lake Huron that only increases as it tracks farther northeast. The strongest 850mb flow within the Cold Air Advection along and immediately behind the front appears to be consolidated to eastern portions of Lake Erie into the Niagara Frontier Monday. Latest NBM probability of wind gust exceeding 48 kt Monday is 50-75% across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie and around 50% northeast of Lake Ontario near Watertown. It is worth noting, these probabilities have dropped slightly over the past few runs, likely turn to these minor shifts in the system's track and resultant wind field. While precipitation with this frontal passage will initially be rainfall Monday, 850mb temps begin to crash towards -16 to -19 degC late in the afternoon into Tuesday morning. Steep low-level lapse rates with lake-induced equilibrium levels rising 6-8 kft will be supportive of lake effect snow development in the wake of this system for Tuesday and Wednesday. While Lake Ontario remains wide open and northwesterly flow likely providing a nice upstream connection to Lake Huron, there is more uncertainty surrounding what may develop off of Lake Erie. The northeastern half of Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered, but there is an area of open water closer to Long Point that may provide an opportunity for late season lake snows in western NY through midweek. Marine A series of low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes through early next week, with multiple rounds of Gale Force winds. The first of these will impact the lakes through the first part of Saturday, with a second round then following Monday into Tuesday. Please note, most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. Hydrology Rivers will continue to rise east of Lake Ontario from previous rainfall and lingering snowmelt. The Black River will likely flood starting this morning, with minor flooding continuing through the weekend on this slow responding river. While a lower probability elsewhere, flooding is also possible on other rivers that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks through the end of the week. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...High Wind Warning until 11am EDT Saturday for NYZ001>003- 010>012-020-085. Wind Advisory until 11am EDT Saturday for NYZ004-005-013-014- 021. Winter Storm Warning until 2pm EDT Saturday for NYZ006>008. Winter Storm Warning until 11am EDT Saturday for NYZ012-020- 085. High Wind Warning until 8am EDT Saturday for NYZ019. Winter Weather Advisory until 8am EDT Saturday for NYZ019. Winter Weather Advisory until 11am EDT Saturday for NYZ021. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Saturday for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 4am EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Saturday for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 8am EDT Saturday for LOZ042-062. Gale Warning until 2pm EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045- 063>065. |
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