Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers Late This Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Tonight...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Mainly Clear. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Saturday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Afternoon. Showers Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Saturday Night...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet, Then Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.|
|Monday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts During The Day. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746am EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
High pressure crossing the area today will maintain fair weather across the region through this evening. A closed low then brings widespread rain Friday through Saturday, tapering off to scattered showers for Sunday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Satellite imagery early this morning indicating lake induced cloud development along the St Lawrence and southwest of Lake Ontario with a cool NE flow over the water, as well as fog across much of the valleys in the Southern Tier. With high pressure crossing the region, expect fair weather and partly to mostly sunny skies through the day as temperatures rise into the mid 50s. Downsloping ENE flow will allow temps to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s along the lower terrain across far WNY. Though the area will stay dry, a couple of rivers and creeks in eastern Monroe and western Ontario county remain at elevated levels from the widespread moderate to heavy rain that fell Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Surface ridge axis gradually shifts to New England by this evening. Clouds will begin to increase from southwest to northeast as an upper level cutoff low and associated surface low slowly shift from the plains to the Ohio Valley late tonight. This system will bring the next round of widespread rain to the area. However, with a sharp ridge downstream across the northeast slowing the progression of the low, the majority of the night should remain dry with extra clouds and just a chance of rain across far southern NY late. Lows will range from the mid 40s south of Lake Ontario to mid/upper 30s east of Lake Ontario.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
Stacked low pressure centered near Kentucky on Friday will gradually move across Western Pennsylvania by Saturday. An associated warm, moist conveyor belt will move north into the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, an occluded front will approach the area and rain will move from south to north across western NY Friday- Friday night and north central NY Friday night-Saturday. A stream of moisture from the Atlantic and left exit region of the jet nearby will support another soaking rain to the region. Widespread rainfall amounts of an inch are likely. This would typically not be enough to cause any river flooding, but with high flows due to recent rainfall localized flooding is possible if localized rainfall amounts reach 1.5 inches. There is overall good model agreement handling this system, with above average forecast confidence.
Steady rain will taper off to showers late Saturday into Saturday night as the closed low moves across the region. Although the heaviest rain will be finished by Saturday, periods of rain and high temperatures in the lower 50s will not be good weather for most outdoor activities.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
A closed low across the region on Sunday will support scattered showers even though amounts should be on the light side. High pressure will then ridge across the region Sunday night through Monday night, providing a short period with rain-free conditions.
A trough will then dig across the Great Lakes mid-week, which will drive a cooler airmass into the region. This will produce showers Tuesday and Wednesday, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes. Adjusted model guidance to account for lake effect precipitation. Expect mainly rain showers, but with 850mb temperatures dropping to -5c some wet snow flakes are possible well inland from the lakes.
A tightening pressure gradient across the area ahead of a low pressure system over the southern plains will allow stronger east to northeast winds and higher waves to build over the lakes today. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected along the southern shores of Lake Ontario through tonight. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be more marginal on the shores of Lake Erie, though the offshore wind direction should keep the higher waves away from the shores.
Small craft advisories are in place for the waters as outlined below.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Friday for LOZ042-043.