Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Niagara River to Hamlin Beach Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SATURDAY

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ042 Forecast Issued: 927 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. Mostly Sunny Late This Morning, Then Becoming Partly Sunny. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Tonight...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North. Mostly Cloudy. Waves 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet.
Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet.
Saturday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 20 Knots. Mainly Clear In The Evening, Then Becoming Partly Cloudy. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet.
Monday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 2 Feet Or Less.
Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then Rain Showers Tuesday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118pm EST Fri Feb 23 2024

Synopsis
A strong cold front will cross the region by this evening, ushering in a notably colder airmass which will bring cold weather for the first half of the weekend. High pressure will then build along the east coast, resulting in a warming trend which will last well into next week. On Tuesday, high temperatures may exceed 60 degrees at many locations.

Near Term - Through Saturday
At 1 p.m. a cold front extended along the north shores of Lake Erie and Ontario, with this front just starting to enter Western NY. The front will move across the region rather quickly, exiting to the southeast by this evening. There's still some fog ahead of this boundary, especially across and near Lake Erie. The fog will dissipate following the passage of the front later this afternoon, but a Dense Fog Advisory remains in place for Erie county through 4 p.m. This is mainly for locations near the lakeshore which includes the Buffalo metro area.

Elsewhere, it's mostly sunny and quite warm with temperatures in the 50s in most of the Southern Tier and Genesee Valley. Temperatures will drop abrupartly following the passage of the front later this afternoon. There is not deep moisture with the front, and it will not generate much precipitation. The best moisture and lift is across the North Country which is likely to see a light rain or snow shower through this evening. As temperatures aloft cool to about -15C at 850mb tonight, there may be some light lake effect snow showers south of the lakes, with little if any accumulation. Colder air filtering into the region will drop temperatures into the teens at most locations, with single digits east of Lake Ontario.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the region on Saturday, which will end any lingering lake effect flurries rather quickly due to the drier air mass and shallow cold air. Even lake effect clouds should dissipate during the afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. It still will be cold however, with highs ranging from the teens to mid 20s.

Short Term - Saturday Night Through Monday Night
Surface high pressure overhead Saturday night will move to the mid- Atlantic by Sunday morning. One more cold night with lows expected in the single digits east of Lake Ontario to teen across Western NY and the Finger Lakes region.

A mid level trough and associated cold front will move east across Ontario and Quebec Sunday through Sunday night, with the southern tail end (front) of this system clipping the eastern Great Lakes. Expect increasing clouds Sunday, followed by a few mixed rain and snow showers late Sunday through Sunday night as forcing and moisture briefly increase. The best chance of measurable precipitation will be found east of Lake Ontario, where a coating to an inch of snow is possible mainly across higher terrain. It will also turn quite breezy Sunday and Sunday night, with gusts of 20-30 mph areawide and up to 40 mph across the Niagara Frontier northeast of Lake Erie.

Surface high pressure quickly races by to our north on Monday which will provide dry weather areawide behind the trough and front. As the surface high passes and also low pressure to our west nears the region, deep southwest flow will develop across the Lower Lakes beginning Monday night. This will pump up a much milder air mass into the region as we head into Tuesday. We will 'likely' be looking at spring-like temperatures with upper 50s to low/mid 60s but more on that in the long term disco. Otherwise...mild Monday too with highs firmly in the 40s for most locales.

.Long Term - Tuesday Through Thursday: Tuesday through Wednesday an energetic Pacific origin trough will advance east across the northern tier of the US, reaching the upper Great Lakes Wednesday. A broad area of height rises and warm advection will precede this system, pumping unseasonable warmth into our region by Tuesday. Highs will likely reach the low to mid 60s across much of the region, with mid to upper 50s for the North Country. Tuesday should start dry, but shower chances will increase as warm advection and isentropic upglide increase. Rain chances will continue to ramp up Tuesday night as deeper moisture and stronger large scale ascent arrive ahead of the upstream trough. There may be enough instability to support a few isolated thunderstorms as well.

Forecast uncertainty increases by Wednesday as model and ensemble guidance begin to diverge with the speed and arrival time of the upstream trough and cold front. The timing differences arise from the handling of a potential frontal wave driven by additional shortwave energy rounding the base of the mid level trough. If a frontal wave develops (such as in the 00Z/23 GFS) the front will be slower, with rain and very warm temperatures lasting through Wednesday. The 00Z/23 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) on the other hand does not have a frontal wave and brings the front into the area by 12Z Wednesday, with a much earlier end to the rain and warmth. Almost all of the 00Z/23 GEFS ensemble members support the slower solution, so continued to keep the forecast warmer and wetter for Wednesday. It may also turn quite windy Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but again the strength of the winds revolves around how the frontal wave develops.

Colder and drier air will arrive behind this system by Wednesday night and Thursday, with the rain possibly ending as a little snow before drier weather returns.

Marine
A strong cold front will cross the lakes from northwest to southeast late this afternoon. Lingering areas of fog on Lake Erie ahead of the front, with visibility improving abruptly behind the front. Winds will veer to the north and strengthen following its passage this evening, resulting in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on the the nearshore waters across both lakes through tonight. Winds and waves will subside generally from west to east Saturday morning, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines falling off in tandem.

Winds will then begin to shift back to the southwest Saturday night and further freshen on Sunday, with another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines likely being needed for the back half of the weekend.

Climate
This winter, defined as the months of December-January-February has been very mild. A strong El Nino typically impacts our region with a wealth of Pacific air, keeping the arctic air from pushing southward into our region. Periodic breakdowns of the strong Pacific flow allowed for a few periods of true winter chill coupled with lake effect snow, but the overall theme this winter has been above normal temperatures. In fact this likely will be the mildest winter on record for Rochester and Watertown, and possibly Buffalo. Below are listed the mildest winters, with an up to date 2023-24 winter average temperature listed at the end of each segment. Records for temperature data date back to 1871 for Buffalo and Rochester, and 1950 for Watertown.

.Buffalo... .1.....1931-32.....34.6 (F) .2.....2015-16.....32.9 .3.....2001-02.....32.9 .4.....2011-12.....32.5 .5.....2022-23.....32.3

Winter to date (through February 22 2024) 34.2 (F)

.Rochester... .1.....1931-32.....34.5 (F) .2.....1889-90.....33.7 .3.....2001-02.....33.4 .4.....2015-16.....33.0 .5.....1932-33.....32.9

Winter to date (through February 22 2024) 34.5 (F)

.Watertown... .1.....2001-02.....29.4 (F) .2.....2011-12.....28.9 .3.....2015-16.....28.6 .4.....2016-17.....28.6 .5.....2022-23.....28.5

Winter to date (through February 22 2024) 30.5 (F)

Additionally, February 2024 is one of the mildest February's on record for our three climate sites. Several unseasonably warm days to end February may just push a climate site to mildest on record. Below are top mildest February's on record.

.Buffalo... .1.....2017....34.8 .2.....1998....34.1 .3.....1984....33.8 .4.....1954....33.0 .5.....1981....32.9

Month to date (through February 22 2024) 33.7 (F)

.Rochester... .1.....2017.....35.5 (F) .2.....2018.....33.6 .3.....1976.....33.3 .4.....1984.....33.2 .5.....1998.....32.6

Month to date (through February 22 2024) 33.4 (F)

.Watertown... .1.....1981.....31.2 (F) .2.....1976.....30.5 .3.....2017.....29.8 .4.....2018.....29.2 .5.....2012.....28.9

Month to date (through February 22 2024) 29.2 (F)

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for NYZ010- 085.

Marine
Dense Fog Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10 am EST Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 1pm EST Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Saturday for LOZ045..

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