Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts Late. A Chance Of Showers Late. Waves 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts Early. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet.|
|Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts During The Day. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1140am EDT Monday September 27 2021
A cold front will drop southward across Western New York this evening. After this, expect fair and mainly dry weather through the rest of the work week as Canadian high pressure will build across our region.
Near Term - Through Tuesday
A warm front will move from southwest to northeast across the Eastern Lake Ontario region early this afternoon. This boundary is ill-defined at the surface, but there is a sharp mid-level thermal gradient which will provide the focus for some showers. Otherwise... sunshine will abound across the western counties.
It will be breezy today, especially across the Niagara Frontier where 40 kt winds aloft will at least partially mix to the surface with wind gusts up to 40 mph through early afternoon. Areas south of Lake Ontario will be in the warm sector, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s today.
A digging mid-level trough will then push a cold frontal boundary southward across the region this evening. There may be some showers with this boundary, which could be enhanced by orographic lifting and lake enhancement at 850mb temperatures drop to around +6c across Lake Ontario by daybreak Tuesday.
Surface high pressure across the Central Great Lakes will expand across our region on Tuesday. There may be some lingering showers across the Western Southern Tier Tuesday morning, but the entire region should be rain-free by Tuesday afternoon. Upslope/lake enhanced clouds will linger a bit longer, but the drier air mass should eventually win out allowing for a partial clearing by the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
Following the passage of the early week cold front...Canadian high pressure over northern Ontario and Quebec will slowly but steadily ridge southward across our area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Subsidence and cool dry air associated with this feature will keep our area largely dry...with the possible exception of areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario. This latter region could potentially be clipped by the western portion of a large upper level low dropping southward across Quebec and New England Wednesday and Wednesday night...which would result in an increase in cloud cover and the chance for some showers/lake effect showers should this come to fruition. With the various model packages still at odds as to the timing and strength/westward extent of the upper level low...for now have kept Probability of Precipitation for Wednesday-Wednesday night confined to the slight chance range.
As for temperatures...expect seasonably cool readings thanks to the cool dry Canadian airmass...along with a bit of a west-east gradient in temps given the upper low/attendant cool pool aloft dropping southward across New England. Expect highs on Wednesday to range from the low-mid 60s across western New York to the upper 50s and lower 60s east of Lake Ontario...with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nigheights mostly ranging through the 40s...with some upper 30s possible across interior portions of the North Country.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
During the latter portions of the work week...the 00z guidance suite continues to exhibit notable differences in the handling of the large upper low over New England. The GFS remains insistent on ejecting the low northeastward to the Gulf of St Lawrence by later Friday...while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) holds the large cyclonic gyre in place across the Canadian Maritimes and New England...with the GEM now trending toward the deeper/more westward ECMWF solution. Should the latter camp verify...there would be a continued low potential for some showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario on Thursday...for which some slight chance Probability of Precipitation are in place. Otherwise...cool and dry weather should continue through Friday. With regard to temperatures...Thursday should easily be the coolest day of the week with highs ranging from the mid-upper 50s east of lake Ontario to the upper 50s and lower 60s across western New York...before temps begin to rebound a little (i.e. back to Wednesday's levels) on Friday. Meanwhile...nightly lows will bottom out Thursday night when readings should dip into the mid-upper 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country and the lower to mid 40s elsewhere...with lows Friday night then expected to be more similar to those of Wednesday night.
As we move into Next Weekend
the guidance diverges even further with the track/strength/timing of the next shortwave impulse and attendant surface low. Given the large discrepancies and poor run-to- run and model-to-model consistency...for now have kept precipitation chances rather conservative with a generally dry Saturday giving way to general slight chance Probability of Precipitation by Sunday. Otherwise...temperatures should continue on a slow upward climb...with daytime highs reaching the mid 60s to around 70 by Sunday.
Breezy southwesterly flow will maintain widespread SCA- level conditions today across eastern portions of both lakes. Winds will then subside tonight with northerly flow in the wake of a passing cold front. 15 to 20 knot flow may support a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines along the south shores of Lake Ontario late tonight into Tuesday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6pm EDT this evening for NYZ007- 010-019-085.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ045. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ044.