Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers, Then Snow Showers Likely Late. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers Through The Early Overnight, Then Lake Effect Snow Showers Likely Late. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Monday...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Increasing To 40 Knot Gales In The Afternoon. Heavy Freezing Spray. Lake Effect Snow Showers Likely. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Building To 13 To 17 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 22 Feet. |
| Monday Night...West Gales To 40 Knots Diminishing To 30 Knots. Heavy Freezing Spray. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 15 To 20 Feet Subsiding To 12 To 16 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 26 Feet. |
| Tuesday...West Gales To 35 Knots Becoming Southwest And Diminishing To 30 Knots. Heavy Freezing Spray. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 10 To 15 Feet Subsiding To 8 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 19 Feet. |
| Wednesday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest And Increasing To 35 Knot Gales. Snow Showers Likely. Waves 5 To 9 Feet Building To 10 To 15 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 19 Feet. |
| Thursday...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 30 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers. Waves 10 To 15 Feet Subsiding To 9 To 12 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 19 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 158am EST Sunday Jan 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Storm total snowfall amounts were lowered and overall spatial coverage narrowed down for the heaviest snow with certainty starting to increase for portions of the event. Gale Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray Warning issued for Lake Erie Monday through Monday night. Gale Warning and Heavy Freezing Spray Warning issued for Lake Ontario Monday through Tuesday evening. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light lake effect snow develops northeast of the lakes today and temperatures turn colder behind passing cold front. 2) Lake effect snow becomes better organized and intensifies late tonight through Wednesday morning, while increasing winds on Monday causes blowing snow at times. 3) Arctic airmass over the region will bring frigid temperatures and the potential for dangerous wind chills next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Light lake effect snow develops northeast of the lakes today and temperatures turn colder behind passing cold front. Cold Air Advection will bring temperatures aloft to -15C this morning. Combined with the continued troughing over the region, a weak lake effect response will continue northeast of Lake Erie and east-northeast of Lake Ontario through the day today. Snow is expected to be mostly light through this period as synoptic moisture is lacking behind the earlier passing cold front. However, with a favorable fetch over both lakes there will be some accumulation's. Northeast of Lake Erie, an inch or two is possible for the day today, with an additional 1 to 3 inches through around daybreak on Monday morning. East of Lake Ontario 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected today and an additional 1 to 3 inches is expected tonight, with the lake effect remaining mostly stationary over the southern half of Jefferson County. KEY MESSAGE 2...Lake effect snow becomes better organized and intensifies late tonight through Wednesday morning, while increasing winds on Monday causes blowing snow at times. A series of passing cold fronts and troughs through the middle of the week will cause lake effect snow to continue. Increasing synoptic moisture will allow the snow to intensify starting late tonight and Monday morning off of both lakes. An Arctic cold front will cross the region late Monday afternoon and into the evening, lowering 850H temperatures to -20C by the mid to late evening hours. Heavy snow combined with increasing winds from a tightening pressure gradient over the region will start to cause blowing snow and reductions to visibility to near whiteout conditions at times, especially where snow is/has fallen recently. Wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible off of the lakes, with winds of 35 to 40 mph possible across much of the rest of the forecast area. Off of Lake Erie, the current placement of the lake band looks to be mainly northeast of the lake Monday morning with a southward shift of the band through the late morning and into the afternoon. The lake band will then focus east of the lake, over the central and southern portions of Erie County, far northwestern Chautauqua & Cattaraugus counties and most of Wyoming County through most of the day Tuesday with some oscillations north. The band will slowly shift north late Tuesday into Tuesday night, and then dissipate Wednesday morning as drier air and ridging builds into the region. The main strip oh greatest snowfall amounts looks to be across the Buffalo Southtowns into NW Wyoming and SW Genesee counties where up to 20 inches of snow is expected. Outside of these area, a solid 6 to 12 inches is possible for far northern and southern Erie County and extreme northwest Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will be possible at times with this lake effect band, including as it drops south across the Buffalo Metro area and far northern Erie County on Monday morning. Equilibrium heigheights will be impressive with this event with heigheights of 10-12k ft at times off of Lake Erie. Off of Lake Ontario, the lake band will band will become better developed northeast of the lake on Monday morning and continue to remain mostly in place through the day. The lake band will then shift south Monday night through the day on Tuesday as winds veer out of the west. The lake bands will remain focused over the Tug Hill for most of this time and over the southern Half of Jefferson County and into western Lewis and northern Oswego counties. Snowfall rates of up to 4 inches per hour will be possible with the lake band off of Lake Ontario as impressive 12k+ ft equilibrium heigheights develop and as the lake band takes advantage of the large fetch over the lake. The lake band will then slowly shift back north through Tuesday night and dissipate through the morning on Wednesday as drier air and ridging build into the region. Total snowfall amounts of 2 to 3 feet will be possible for areas from near the lakeshore on Jefferson COunty to the Tug Hill. KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic airmass over the region will bring frigid temperatures and the potential for dangerous wind chills next week. An arctic airmass will drop across our region Monday, with the arrival from north to south behind an arctic front. Temperatures Monday night will lower towards zero inland and to the single digits near the Lakes. Brisk westerly winds will result in wind chills of 10 below to 20 below Monday night. The ensemble guidance of GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continues to highlight the western Southern Tier as the area most likely to feel sub -15F wind chills. These wind chill values will only improve to zero to 10 below Tuesday and Tuesday night as the wind starts to lighten. Marine Southwest winds of 20-30 knots will continue early this morning behind a cold front. Small Craft Advisories remain posted all nearshore zones of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Wind will remain southwest today though will subside to 15-25 knots. An arctic front will cross the lower Great Lakes Monday as deepening low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes and into Ontario and Quebec. Behind the front, west-southwest winds will increase to 35-40 knot gales with gusts to 45 knots. Gales Warning issued for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Heavy Freezing Spray will be a concern during the period of gales. A heavy freezing spray warning has been issued for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for rapid ice accretion on vessels. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1pm this afternoon to 4pm EST Wednesday for NYZ001-002-010-011. Winter Storm Warning from 7am this morning to 4pm EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008. Winter Storm Warning from 7am Monday to 3pm EST Wednesday for NYZ012-019-020-085. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Gale Warning from 6am Monday to 7am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6am Monday to 7am EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Monday for LOZ042>045. Gale Warning from 7am Monday to 1am EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-062>065. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7am Monday to 1am EST Wednesday for LOZ042>045-062>065. |
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