Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ063 Forecast Issued: 413 PM EDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Thursday Night...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southwest. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Friday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
437pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022

Synopsis
High pressure will be the main weather feature late this week through this weekend resulting in mainly dry weather. A better chance of rain will not return until early next week.

Near Term - Through Thursday Night
High pressure over the upper Lakes will build across the area through the period.

Tonight through Thursday night main focus for any showers will stay south of the NY/PA state line closer to main frontal boundary running from Ohio valley to east coast. Trend is now for drier conditions across all of our area. Lowered probability of precipitation Thursday and Thursday night and this trend continues beyond this time frame as well. Even as the high builds across, there will be some clouds at times, either from high clouds spilling eastward across the region or from fair weather cu building up especially inland on Thursday afternoon.

Temps tonight will drop to around 50 or even into the 40s east of Lake Ontario but will mainly be in the 50s elsewhere. Highs on Thursday should be warmer than today as day will start out with more sunshine. Expect most spots to reach around 80 with warmest readings in lower 80s from Buffalo eastward to Genesee valley and Finger Lakes. Northeast winds enhanced by lake breeze will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler though. Near normal temps Thursday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
The 12z model guidance continues last night's trend toward high pressure being more dominant across our region on Friday...which should result in any convection with the frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic remaining safely suppressed to our south. While a secondary cold frontal boundary looks to pivot across our region late Friday/Friday evening...this feature currently appears too weak and moisture starved to support any shower activity...and as such should come through dry...resulting in a dry day areawide. Temperature-wise...850 mb temps of +12C to +15C should support highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday...with a cooler airmass then overspreading the area following the weak secondary front and allowing lows to fall back into the 50s areawide Friday night.

Thereafter...Canadian high pressure will gradually settle southeastward and across our region through the remainder of this period. This will result in a splendiferous Saturday with highs in the lower-mid 70s and comfortable humidity levels...with ideal conditions for radiational cooling (light winds and a cool dry airmass) then allowing Saturday night's lows to range from the mid to upper 40s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Center of sprawling Canadian high pressure moves overhead Sunday providing a gorgeous finish to the weekend as well. Humidity levels will remain very comfortable by July standards with dew points only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Only difference is will be tacking on an additional 5 degrees or so with highs mainly in the mid and upper 70s. Center of high pressure shifts east of the area Sunday night which will veer winds around to the south drawing in a bit warmer and more humid air. Still, with mainly clear skies expect another comfortable night with lows ranging through the 50s.

High pressure will provide one more dry day as it departs off the New England coast on Monday, while a strong shortwave aloft and associated surface low pressure system moves into the upper Great Lakes. A stronger low level southwesterly flow will develop between these two systems advecting warmer air in across the region with 850Ts climbing into the 16C to 18C range helping boost highs well into the 80s across the majority of the region. Humidity levels remain very tolerable with only a moderate dew point rise into the mid 50s.

Low pressure system moves due east of the upper Great Lakes Monday night pushing its' attendant warm front into western and northcentral NY. Weak lift and limited available moisture may be enough to produce a few showers, otherwise the main impact will be much warmer overnight temps with lows only dropping back into the 60s across the bulk of the area owed to elevated southerly flow and an increase in cloud cover.

A upper level trough is then forecast to dig across the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some unsettled weather back into the forecast with the potential for some much needed rainfall. A cold front swings through on Tuesday bringing the likelihood for showers and a few storms. Main upper trough with embedded shortwaves rotating about remains overhead mid week with a secondary surface cold front possibly moving through on Wednesday as well keeping the threat for at least the chance of showers and a few storms in the forecast. There will be a bit more in the way of mugginess on Tuesday ahead of the initial cold front, with dew points dropping back some by mid week in the wake of the FROPA. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, falling back a few degrees for Wednesday.

Marine
Surface high pressure settling overhead Thursday and Friday will result in light winds and minimal wave action. The next period of stronger winds will be later Friday night into Saturday morning when winds freshen from the northeast for a time leading to some choppy conditions on both lakes.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
None.

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