Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ063 Forecast Issued: 646 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Today...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Scattered Flurries Early. Waves 3 To 6 Feet.
Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South And Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.
Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers With Snow Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Just Rain Showers In The Afternoon. Waves Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Friday Night...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet.
Saturday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain Showers During The Day, Then Rain Showers Likely With A Chance Of Snow Showers Saturday Night. Waves Building To 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet.
Sunday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.
Monday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640am EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Synopsis
High pressure over Pennsylvania will support a fair amount of sunshine across our region today...although it will be chilly by late March standards with highs mainly in the 30s. A warm will approach the area tonight...and this will encourage clouds to increase and thicken...and could even lead to some mixed showers over the far western counties. Fairly widespread showers can then be anticipated on Friday...as the same warm front will slowly push north through the forecast area.

Near Term - Through Friday
High pressure centered over Lower Michigan early this morning will drift across Pennsylvania during the course of today. A wealth of dry air associated with this feature will allow for plenty of sunshine... although some leftover lake clouds and flurries may be present southeast of Lake Ontario until the mid morning hours. Despite some weak warm air advection...it will be on the chilly side of normal today. Max temps are only forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s for the vast majority of the region. These readings will be a solid 7-10 deg f below typical late March highs.

The crest of a broad mid level ridge will push east across the Upper Great Lakes tonight. This will prompt a tightening of the H925-70 thermal gradient over Lower Michigan and Ohio where a corresponding surface warm front will strengthen and take aim on our region. The ensuing lift to the north of the boundary will allow clouds to increase and thicken across our region...with surface temps bottoming out during the first half of the night. There may even be some mixed rain or wet snow showers over the far western counties by daybreak.

Friday will then be a very unsettled day...as a 50kt LLJ riding up and over the passing aforementioned warm front will provide more than enough lift to generate fairly widespread showers. While these could initially start as wet snow showers...all areas will certainly experience a changeover to just rain...which could briefly be moderately heavy at times. Rainfall from this event will generally range from a quarter inch or less over the Finger Lakes to over a half inch across parts of the Srn Tier.

Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
Heading into the weekend, a southern stream trough overhead of the Mid-West, will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes Friday night. This trough will support a surface low over southern Minnesota and Wisconsin to lift northeast across the Great Lakes into south-eastern Ontario, Canada by Saturday morning. This complex system will initially have its associated surface warm front draped across Lake Ontario into the northern portions of New York State Friday night. As the trough and associated surface system, lifts northeast, the warm front will lift further north later Friday night. Overall, expect widespread showers associated with the warm front to continue throughout the night with rainfall amounts staying under a half of an inch, though some locally higher amounts may be possible in any convectively induced showers. Additionally Friday night, due to the region being underneath the warm sector, expect a non-diurnal temperature curve, meaning temperatures will be on the rise throughout the night. This being said, temperatures will start off in the upper 40s to low 50s across WNY and low to mid 40s across the eastern Lake Ontario region and warm up into the low to mid 50s and mid to upper 40s respectively.

The aforementioned trough and associated surface low will reach the lower Great Lakes Saturday before tracking further northeast into Atlantic Canada by Saturday night. Despite a strong mid-level slot working its way into the region early Saturday morning, a secondary feature arrives into western New York shortly there behind it. This will mark the arrival of more additional showers ahead of the surface low's cold front. Due to the warm air advection and arrival of the 40-50 knot low level jet core, some instability will spill across the region and therefore may support some thunder Saturday. Additionally, with the combination of the arrival of a low level jet of this magnitude and tight pressure gradient from the deepening low tracking northwest of the area will present the potential for some strong to high winds. Also regarding winds, with the convective elements being a possibility, severe winds may be a possibility.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, strong cold air advection will support rapidly falling temperatures Saturday night. As the low and frontal features pull northeast out of the area, lingering showers will switch over from rain to snow and also taper off from west to east through out the night. Snow showers will come to an end by Sunday morning as subtle ridging pushing across the Great Lakes support surface high pressure and associated dry air to slide across the area.

With an expansive area of surface high pressure residing across the area Sunday, fair, dry and chilly weather will dominate across the region. Expect high temperatures to range in the 30s.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Wednesday
An area of surface low pressure along with its parent mid-level shortwave trough will move east across southern Ontario Sunday night. This will lift a warm frontal segment through the Lower Lakes, which may touch off a few light snow showers across the North Country late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will remain on the dry side.

The shortwave trough will continue its eastward track across southern Canada Monday, crossing over from Ontario to Quebec through the course of the day before reaching the Canadian Maritimes late Monday night. This will ease a weak cold front southward from the Great Lakes to New England before falling apart as it runs up against the dry airmass associated with the high pressure residing in the western Atlantic. This will support some rain showers for the lower Great Lakes sometime Monday night into Tuesday though long range guidance solutions continue to be at odds with one another on the evolution of this feature (mainly in regards to strength and timing.) Will keep things in chance range for Probability of Precipitation until the details come into better focus.

The next trough will be rather amplified engulfing the western half of the CONUS by mid-week. A potent shortwave trough will race northeast across the Plains and reach the western Great Lakes Tuesday night. This will lift a strong warm front through the region, with rain showers likely late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be below normal for early April on Sunday and will quickly warm to above normal through midweek with a persistent southerly return flow as high pressure becomes established off the Atlantic coast. Daytime readings in the 50s and even 60s will be common by Monday and last into mid week. Similarly, lows will average in the upper 30s and low 40s by Monday night, before having a range of 40s through the rest of the period.

Marine
High pressure over Lower Michigan early today will keep some gusty west to northwest winds in place on Lake Ontario through the afternoon... so will maintain current SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for the New York nearshore waters. On Lake Erie...winds have already started to subside and have backed more to the west/southwest.

As the aforementioned surface high moves across Pennsylvania later today then off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight...winds and waves will subside on Lake Ontario while gentle winds will veer to the southeast on Lake Erie.

Moderate southerlies will be found across the Lower Great Lakes on Friday along with numerous rain showers.

Winds throughout the region will significantly strengthen later Friday night and especially Saturday. Strong southwesterlies are forecast for Saturday with frequent gale force gusts possible.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ043>045.

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