Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tonight...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1110am EDT Sat September 19 2020
Canadian high pressure will gradually pass across our region this weekend. This will allow for fair chilly weather with fairly widespread frost each night. The normally colder areas of the Southern Tier and North Country will likely experience a hard freeze. Temperatures through Sunday night will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Growing season has ended for Lewis county, but continues for rest of our forecast area. Please see latest PNSBUF for details.
Temps continue slowly warm after the chilly night. Scattered lake clouds are over all but far southern Tier. Still will be mostly sunny day, though cool as highs stay mainly in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure overhead tonight will promote another cold night. There may be a bit more mid and high clouds grazing Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario region but staying mainly clear elsewhere. Regardless, a frost or a freeze is likely again inland from the lakes. So, look for more frost and freeze headlines to be issued later today.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
High pressure will remain anchored over NY and Southern Quebec through Monday, and slowly elongate south Tuesday morning. This will provide quiet weather over Western and North Central NY during this period. Some lake clouds are possible Sunday morning, but with winds expected to shift to the southeast and east during the day on Sunday, clouds that are over the area should clear out through the morning. The chance for frost across portions of the area will once again be possible for Sunday night, and to a lesser extent Monday night. Some inland areas of both the North Country and the Western Southern Tier may have the potential for a freeze Sunday night.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low temperatures on Sunday night will be in the low 30s over the higher terrain to near 40 closer to the lakes. Lows on Monday night will be in the mid 30s for the higher terrain to mid 40s closer to the lakes.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
High pressure will remain in place over the east coast through most of the week, providing quiet weather for the area through at least most of Thursday.
From Thursday evening through the rest of the long term period is where guidance splits on the forecast. The GFS brings a cold front through the region with another chilly below normal stretch for late in the week. At the same time the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) brings a shortwave trough quickly followed by a large ridge. The GFS brings periods of showers across the area from Thursday night through the weekend, where the ECMWF is dry during this time. Put chance POPs in from Thursday night through the rest of the long term, with guidance expected to come into better agreement with time.
High temperatures during the long term period will start out Tuesday in the low 60s over the higher terrain to around 70 for the lower elevations. Temperatures will warm for Wednesday and Thursday to the mid 60s over the higher terrain to the mid and upper 70s for the lower elevations. High temperatures on Friday are going to be highly dependent on what model solution mentioned above actually comes to fruition or a compromise between the spread in guidance. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s each night.
A large area of high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will drift east and become anchored over the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight through Monday night.
Northeast winds of 10-15 knots through this afternoon will keep choppy conditions across Lake Ontario.
As we work through tonight and Sunday, a moderate easterly flow will dominate both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Light winds and negligible waves will remain in place Monday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories