Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts Late. A Chance Of Showers Late. Waves 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts Early. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet.|
|Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Waterspouts During The Day. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1237am EST Wednesday Jan 19 2022
A little light snow will be possible tonight...as a warm front will cross the region. Higher temperatures will make a brief appearance in the wake of the warm front through early Wednesday morning. Then, a rather dry cold front will move across the region late Wednesday and introduce much colder air to the area. These cold temperatures will last through the weekend.
Near Term - Through Today
A warm front push northeast across the region overnight. So far it has only produced a few flurries across Western NY, but as the front reaches the North Country strengthening isentropic upglide and deeper moisture will produce measurable light snow with minor accumulations of around an inch. Outside of this, expect a non- diurnal curve in temperatures tonight as the passage of the warm front will advect in warmer air and cause temperatures to rise above freezing across the lower elevations of western New York.
Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm frontal passage tonight will track to the north of the region. In its journey, an associated cold front will be dragged across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the incoming cold front, southwest winds will pick up across the region with up to 35mph gusts possible. Additionally, the southwest winds will further aid warmer air to advect into the region, supporting temperatures into the upper 30s to near 40. Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow will be possible.
Short Term - Tonight Through Saturday
Winds will shift to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward across the area Wednesday night. 850mb temps drop from about -12c Wednesday evening to -16c daybreak Thursday. Modest lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario should enhance a bit with a band dropping south of the lake late Wednesday night. Expect this to drop 1-3 inches southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to Oswego counties. Shorter fetch from the northwest flow could drop 1-2 inches east of Lake Erie.
On Thursday and Thursday night, lake effect snows will continue south of the lakes. By this time the air mass will be very dry, with any accumulations expected to be light (an inch or less for most). On Thursday highs will mainly be in the teens, with the combination of cold and wind producing bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills Thursday night. Lows will be below zero at many locations Thursday night, with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop 10 to 20 below across the North Country. Associated wind chills might require wind chill advisory or warning headlines.
High pressure will build across the region Friday, before sliding gradually east across northern New England on Saturday. Any lingering lake snows on Friday will contract close to or across the lakes before ending Friday night. Dissipating lake clouds will allow for good radiational cooling across the entire region Friday night, with lows below zero at most locations. Fair weather Saturday with highs ranging from the teens to mid-20s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
The cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures and a chance of snow showers.
An elongated trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will approach Saturday night. This will bring a chance of general snow showers Sunday, with lake effect snow showers east/southeast of the lakes late Sunday through Monday. For most locations, any snow accumulation will be light (less than 2 inches) however with 850mb temperatures around -19c any lake snow would likely have snow/water equivalent ratios in excess of 20:1.
A clipper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Improving model agreement on this and although Quantitative Precipitation ForecastS are light, suspect there's a good chance of measurable precipitation even if it will be on the light side.
There will be a brief lull in winds through this evening, then SSW winds will quickly increase overnight and Wednesday morning as low pressure passes by to the north of the region. A trailing cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes around midday, bringing another round of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in southwest winds into Wednesday night.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 10am EST Thursday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 4am early this morning to 7am EST Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for LOZ045.