Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
|Overnight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Early. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday And Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
922pm EST Fri Dec 4 2020
It will be seasonably chilly this weekend...as colder air will make its way across the region in the wake of a cold front. The lower temperatures this weekend will be accompanied by plenty of clouds along with some rain and snow showers...especially on Saturday.
Near Term - Through Saturday
A mid level trough over the central Great Lakes will sharpen while crossing the Lower Great Lakes overnight. This system will continue to support some rain and wet snow showers over the region with very minor accumulations across the higher elevations.
On Saturday...low pressure will rapidly intensify as it will track along the New England coast. This will be well to far to the east to bring our any precipitation, however it will establish a northwest flow across our region. The system will also advect cooler air into the region with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -9c. This will definitely bring cloud cover and should induce a limited lake response, with cloud tops just cold enough to support dendritic snow growth. Expect spokes of mid-level moisture from the coastal low will periodically provide moisture and seeding resulting in scattered snow showers during the day south of the lakes. Any accumulation should be negligible. Cold air advection will offset diurnal heating with temperatures expected to remain steady in the lower to mid 30s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cyclonic flow around a mature coastal low in the Gulf of Maine will continue to filter in a cold (H850T -10C/-11C) but dry Canadian air mass across the Lower Lakes Saturday night. Despite the cold air mass aloft, the lack of synoptic moisture and the short fetch of the lakes(northerly flow) will likely not support any decent lake response. With the above mentioned limitations, the most likely scenario will be some nuisance snow showers and minor accumulations southeast of both lakes overnight.
The chilly air mass will continue to remain in place Sunday, with H850T still hovering near-10C. Persistent cyclonic flow across the Lower Lakes should keep plenty of cloud cover blanketing the area southeast of both lakes during the daylight hours. The low to our northeast finally begins to pull away Sunday night and into Monday. As it does so, the chilly airmass over the region Monday will begin to gradually modify. This will be the initial stages of a modest warm up as we progress through the work week. Monday night, weak surface ridging over the upper Great Lakes builds southeast into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes which should provide dry weather through Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A shortwave crossing southern Canada and Lake Ontario to open this period will bring a chance for rain and snow showers on Wednesday, with the best chances ahead of the wave...across the North Country. A shortwave ridge of high pressure will be over our region Thursday...albeit likely still cloudy. Another shortwave will reach the Eastern Great Lakes region Friday with again chances for mainly rain showers. Temperatures will average several degrees above normal this period.
Northwest winds in wake of the cold front will lead to choppy conditions on both lakes Saturday into Sunday. Conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, but could be close along the south shores of Lake Ontario.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories