Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Late This Evening, Then Rain After Midnight. Rain And Snow Late. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots Increasing To 30 Knots. Rain. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds To 30 Knots Becoming North And Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Rain And Snow Showers In The Evening, Then Snow And Rain Showers Overnight. Waves 5 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Monday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Snow Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Monday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Snow Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest. Rain And Snow Showers. Waves 7 To 10 Feet Building To 9 To 13 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 30 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 8 To 11 Feet Building To 10 To 14 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Thursday...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots. Rain Showers. Waves 10 To 14 Feet Subsiding To 7 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 18 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 704pm EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Synopsis An area of low pressure will approach the area tonight. Besides a few scattered light showers, mostly dry weather will continue this evening, before much more unsettled weather then makes a quick return later tonight and Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses the area. Expect mainly rain south of Lake Ontario and a possible wintry mix across the North Country eventually giving way to snow Sunday afternoon and night as much colder air wraps in behind the departing low. The much colder airmass will also eventually bring a period of accumulating lake snows southeast and east of the lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Near Term - Through Sunday Low pressure will strengthen as it moves slowly northeast toward our area tonight with deeper moisture and stronger forcing moving into the area. Expect precipitation to move in across the region from southwest to northeast. Thermal profiles suggest mainly rain south of Lake Ontario, although may be cold enough initially for a mix of rain and snow over the higher elevations of the Finger Lakes and Wyoming/southern Genesee Counties at the onset, with little to no accumulation expected. Colder air will hang on across the North Country with snow expected for the second half of tonight, possibly mixing with some sleet and freezing rain at times as warm nose continues to push into that area. Snow accumulations are expected to be an inch or less. Dry slot will move in across much of the area south of Lake Ontario Sunday morning, so expect steadier rain to taper off for the first half of Sunday there. Meanwhile, steadier snow/wintry mix will continue to transition over to rain across central/southern Lewis County and southern Jefferson County by midday. Cold northeasterly low level flow down the SL Valley will continue across northern Jefferson County/far northern Lewis County with either freezing rain or a mix of rain and freezing rain continuing through the remainder of Sunday there. With confidence in least some ice accretion across the North Country, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Jefferson and Lewis counties from 1am Sunday to 7am Monday, with freezing rain expected to last the longest in northern Jefferson County. Otherwise, as the low passes by, expect precipitation (mainly rain) to become more widespread again across areas south of Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon. P-type continues remains difficult to pin down across portions of the Niagara Frontier during the afternoon hours as model discrepancies continue with regard to the exact track of the surface low even at this short distance in time. This will play a large role in p-type on the west flank of the low with a sharp temperature gradient just to the west of the system. Will continue with a rain/snow mix across these areas, with the best chance for an early changeover to snow toward Niagara County. This will continue to be monitored and updated as newer guidance flows in. Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night Sunday night a lobe of energy/cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) from the main upper level Hudson low will dive southward into the Ohio Valley, while a lee side seaboard surface low develops and deepens off the east coast. As this surface low deepens, northwest cold air advection will change much of the mixed precipitation, including SLV/North Country freezing rain over to all snow overnight, with the exception of southeast of Lake Ontario where enough boundary lake warmth will keep a mix of snow/rain through Monday morning. With the loss of synoptic moisture Monday, any precipitation will be on the lighter side, with much of the day dry. By Monday and Monday night as the core of the cold air passes over our region precipitation will be all snow with initial northwest lake effect light snow becoming westerly lake snows through the day Tuesday. Adding to the complexity of the lake effect event will be a secondary shortwave from the Hudson Low, with this shortwave dropping across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. While this shortwave will return favorable synoptic moisture, it will also bring added wind shear may prevent lake snowbands from organizing to their full strength. Slight warming aloft Tuesday behind the core of the upper level low will allow for mixed precipitation of rain/snow to reenter into our region...especially near and inland of the still warm eastern Great Lakes. In terms of snowfall, much of the region will see at least some accumulating snow Sunday night with the onset of the cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft, with snowfall amounts generally around an inch or less, except for the Chautauqua Ridge where upslope NNW flow will likely bring several inches of snow accumulation. A coating of snow Monday morning, with a bit more snow on the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill Plateau. Additional snow accumulation Monday night and into Tuesday with a band of potential snow with an upstream connection near the state line, though the wind flow may remain northerly enough to keep the heavier snow totals west and south of Chautauqua County. Uncertainty remains high, especially as we head towards Monday night and Tuesday with wind direction...and subsequent lake effect snowband placement. Monday will be the coldest day with surface temperatures only in the low to mid 30s for highs. While most of our region will be dropping below freezing Sunday night, the coldest night will be Monday night with over night lows in the low to mid 20s...and interior locations possibly reaching down into the upper teens. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday An amplified pattern will continue this period with initial upper level trough slowly being replaced by a building ridge of high pressure from the Central Plains. Behind the core of the cold air, we should see moderating temperatures this period...such that much of the falling precipitation will be plain rain, with still some higher elevation snow...or overnight snow region-wide. Ahead of another shortwave trough late Tuesday night and into Wednesday a LLJ of 40 to 50 knots will bring an increase to surface winds, with a westerly flow gusting into the 30 to 40 mph range. As this low crosses southern Quebec, winds will veer to northwesterly, but remain gusty on Thursday, and not till Thursday night into Friday when surface high pressure ridges towards our region that the pressure gradient will relax and put an end to the stronger surface winds. Will have precipitation Wednesday through Friday in the forecast with the upper level trough nearby, but for the start of the next weekend as the Central Plains ridge builds towards our region, chances for precipitation will go down for Saturday. Marine Tonight low pressure will deepen and become better organized as it makes its way from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley. As the low approaches winds will veer to northeasterly/ easterly and freshen again, with these becoming rather brisk by Sunday morning on Lake Ontario, and during Sunday on Lake Erie. This will eventually necessitate yet another round of Small Craft Advisories on both lakes, with elevated winds and wave action likely continuing through the first half of the new week. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1am Sunday to 7am EST Monday for NYZ007-008. Marine None. |
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