Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southwest Winds To 30 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots. Periods Of Rain In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. Periods Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain Showers Likely Overnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Tuesday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming West. Periods Of Rain During The Day, Then Rain Showers Likely Wednesday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 8 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 14 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003am EST Sat Nov 26 2022
High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states will maintain warm and dry weather today, although it will be a bit breezy. A storm system brewing over Texas will move northeast across the Ohio valley during the course of the weekend and will eventually bring a soaking rain to our region for Sunday. Many areas are forecast to pick up a half inch of rain.
Near Term - Through Tonight
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will move by to the south today. This will bring strong subsidence to the area and result in dry and mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. Before that there will be a few lingering stratus clouds northeast of the lakes. Breezy and warmer today with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s, upper 40s across the North Country. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph with the strongest gusts northeast of the Lakes.
The upper level ridge will track east tonight. Mid to high clouds will increase from the southwest as low pressure approaches the region. Dry weather is expected tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, low 30s on the Tug Hill.
Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
Sunday a progressive mid level low will move from near the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the morning to the eastern Great Lakes by early evening before moving across New England overnight and de-amplifying with time. An associated surface low will move northeast over Lake Erie in the afternoon and then cross western and central NY in the evening.
Large scale ascent ahead of the mid level wave along with a surge of moisture transport associated with a 50 knot low level jet ahead of the system will allow rain to develop from southwest to northeast on Sunday. A southwest to northeast oriented baroclinic zone will tighten Sunday afternoon and evening as the surface low ripples along it, with associated frontogenesis and deformation along and poleward of the surface low track supporting periods of rain through the first half of Sunday night. The rain will then taper off and end from northwest to southeast late Sunday night and Monday morning as deep moisture and forcing quickly exit as the system moves from New England into the Canadian Maritimes. Most of the precipitation will stay rain late Sunday night and Monday morning, although some wet snow will mix in at the end across higher terrain. A slushy coating is possible Monday morning across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.
Rainfall totals Sunday and Sunday night still look to be in the 0.50"-0.75" range across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, and under 0.50" in the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.
Dry weather returns Monday afternoon and Monday night as a ridge of high pressure surface and aloft build east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low level moisture will linger behind the departing system, so clouds may be difficult to dislodge, typical for late November.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
The pattern will remain progressive next week as an energetic trough moves from the northern Plains Tuesday to the western Great Lakes Wednesday, then to Quebec and New England by Thursday. This trough, and the associated strong synoptic scale low will be the main weather maker for next week.
Looking at the details, high pressure will drift east across New England Tuesday, maintaining dry weather across the eastern Great Lakes. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will allow temperatures to climb well into the 40s in most areas, with some lower 50s probable across the lake plains of Western NY as southerly downslope winds increase.
Surface low pressure will then deepen as it moves into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, reaching western Quebec or James Bay Wednesday. Model guidance continues to show some run to run and model to model differences with the synoptic scale details of partial phasing between a strong vorticity maxima rounding the base of the longwave trough and another mid level low moving east across southern Canada. These phasing details will influence how strong the surface low becomes, and its subsequent track and timing. Overall, model guidance as trended a little weaker and farther northwest over the past 2 days with this system.
From a sensible weather standpoint, rain will overspread the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday as strong large scale forcing and deep moisture arrive ahead of the trough. It will turn quite warm Wednesday despite the rain as a stout thermal ridge is drawn northward ahead of the advancing trough. Cold air will pour back into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday behind a strong cold front. It will turn quite windy along and behind the cold front, although the potential for truly strong winds has diminished for now given the model trends noted above.
Some limited lake effect snow showers will develop east of the lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday on colder westerly flow, but the setup will be short lived as high pressure quickly builds into the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon. Dry weather and warmer temperatures will return by Friday as the pattern across the US quickly becomes zonal.
High pressure will move east across the Ohio valley today and this will maintain a tight enough surface pressure gradient to support prolonged small craft advisory conditions throughout the Lower Great lakes.
As the surface high moves off the Southeast coast tonight... winds and waves will subside throughout the region. This should allow current SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) to expire.
While a deepening storm system will track directly across the Lower Great Lakes on Sunday with periods of rain...winds and waves should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. In its wake though...freshening winds will likely require another round of SCA's...mainly on Lake Erie for Sunday night into Monday.
There is a limited risk for minor poor drainage flooding as well as minor flooding along the Buffalo Creeks on Sunday into Monday. It should be emphasized that while minor flooding is possible, impacts will be very limited if flooding does materialize given the relatively modest rainfall.
A significant portion of the snowpack from historic lake effect snows last weekend has melted, with most of the region now back to bare ground except for the hardest hit areas. Even in these areas, snow depth has decreased significantly and a notable portion of the snow water equivalent (SWE) in the snow has been released. There is still enough SWE left to give some concern across the Buffalo Southtowns and Buffalo area creek basins.
The next system will cross the area Sunday into the first part of Sunday night producing rainfall amounts generally 0.50-0.75 inches across Western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region, less in the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Above freezing temperatures through the rest of the weekend will keep a slow and steady snowmelt progressing.
The Buffalo area creeks including Cazenovia, Buffalo, Cayuga, and Ellicott will all see significant within-bank rises Sunday into Monday. MMEFS river ensemble forecasts have trended up a little in the potential for some of these creeks to reach minor flood stage Sunday night and early Monday. There may be some minor poor drainage flooding in streets, especially where snowbanks are blocking drainage structures.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Sunday for LOZ045.