Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...East Winds 10 Knots Or Less Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Rain. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Friday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots. Rain Showers Likely Friday Night. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Rain Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet, Then Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 111pm EST Wednesday Mar 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for freezing rain in Jefferson and Lewis counties Thursday night through Friday morning. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread rain will develop Thursday and continue through Thursday night, with freezing rain expected across the Saint Lawrence Valley and on the Tug Hill, and possibly south of Lake Ontario. 2) Increased risk for flooding as a result of above average temperatures and chances for rain to continue through the weekend and into next week. 1) Widespread rain will develop Thursday and continue through Thursday night, with freezing rain expected across the Saint Lawrence Valley and on the Tug Hill, and possibly south of Lake Ontario. A shortwave trough located over the Central Plains this afternoon will move east-northeast reaching the eastern Great Lakes region by Thursday night. A weak surface low will develop and move into the Ohio Valley Thursday. Surface high pressure will maintain dry conditions across the region through most of tonight. An elevated warm front draped from west to east across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic will begin to move northward tonight. Ascent and moisture will move northward across the Ohio Valley, while a reinforcing surface high over Ontario and Quebec moves southward. A northeast flow will develop across the forecast area tonight, which will help hold off on precipitation moving into western NY tonight. Large scale ascent and deeper moisture combined with a strengthening thermal gradient will approach the region Thursday. Scattered rain showers will move into western NY Thursday morning, before widespread rain develops across western NY Thursday afternoon. Mostly dry weather will continue east of Lake Ontario Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, there will be a large temperature difference across the region with 50s F across the western Southern Tier and upper 30s north of Interstate 90 (BUF to SYR.) Thermal profiles suggest the potential for freezing rain in a few locations across the forecast area Thursday through Thursday night. The first location is across the southern shore of Lake Ontario, where forecast temperatures are expected to be right around freezing and this could result in a period of freezing rain. Widespread rain is expected to move into the eastern Lake Ontario region Thursday night. A northeast flow along the Saint Lawrence Valley is expected to maintain colder air across northern Jefferson county. This is a favorable set-up for freezing rain and while there still remains model spread in the amount of rainfall, one to two tenths of an inch of ice is expected across northern Jefferson county. Freezing rain is expected to clip the northern edge of Lewis county, and temperatures will be around freezing on the higher elevations (Tug Hill.) A Winter Weather Advisory was issued of Jefferson and Lewis counties late Thursday through Friday morning. Precipitation will end from west to east Friday morning. 24-hr forecast rainfall amounts (7am Thu to 7am Fri) will average 0.25- 0.75" across western NY and 0.20" to 0.45" across the eastern Lake Ontario region. The current deterministic NBM forecast has 0.75- 1.00" near the NY/PA border. There still remains considerable spread in model guidance Quantitative Precipitation Forecast with the 24 hr precipitation difference for the 25th to 75 percentile around 0.50" across the forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased risk for flooding as a result of above average temperatures and chances for rain to continue through the weekend and into next week. Day to day warming trend will continue into next week, with daytime temperatures on average warming up into the 50s areawide. This being said, there will be a few days across WNY where temperatures will climb well into the 60 and approach 70 ahead of approaching cold fronts, one this weekend and the second by the middle of the next week. Two periods of rain will grace the region this weekend and by the middle of next week, due to cold frontal passages. The first cold front will pass Saturday, and the second occuring during the middle of next week. With the frontal passages, expect rain to spread from west to east across the region, supporting rainfall amounts of up to a quarter to a third of an inch. Additionally, a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with the passage of the system on Saturday. The combination of the warm ambient temperatures, and the rainfall on the snow pack will support the snowpack to further ripen, and rapidly deplete. While the snowpack across much of WNY has majorly depleted in the past week or so, the snowpack across the North Country remains well in tack, with the snow depth ranging from 8 inches and a measured snow water equivalent(SWE) of 1.1 inches in West Carthage, NY to a measured snow depth of 42 inches with an estimated SWE of around 6 inches. Additionally, should note that the frost depth at Chases Lake, NY was measured at 22 inches this morning, meaning any snow that does melt as well as the added rainfall will not percolate into the soil and be pure runoff. This all being said, conditions are primed for flooding, especially across the North Country, resulting in elevated flows on area rivers and creeks as well as low land areas this weekend through the start of next week. Marine High pressure building across the Lower Great Lakes will bring light winds and quiet weather today. As the high slides off to the east...a modest east-northeasterly flow will develop across Lake Ontario late today/tonight...then will become fairly brisk on Thursday as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley. This will bring a period of SCA-worthy conditions to areas from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay that will last through much of Thursday night... before the low departs off to the east later Thursday night/ Friday and allows the pressure gradient across our region to weaken again. Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm Thursday to 1pm EST Friday for NYZ007-008. Marine None. |
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