Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Friday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Sunday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
507pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will push east to the coast of New England for Wednesday night and Thursday. This will promote fair dry weather over our region through the end of the work week. Weak low pressure drifting across the Lower Great lakes will then favor unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend with the likelihood of showers. Temperatures gradually climb to above normal levels during the period.
Near Term - Through Wednesday Night
High pressure over the Ohio Valley this evening will push east across Pennsylvania later tonight and Wednesday. This will support fair dry weather. Interestingly...the current chilly airmass (H85 temps around 4c) will encourage a nominal lake response tonight. This should lead to at least some lake induced clouds east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario. A brief shower cannot be ruled out in the Boston Hills and near the Chautauqua ridge.
The return flow around the backside of the aforementioned surface high will equate into a milder night Wednesday night while fair weather will remain in place.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
High pressure will dominate the northeast Thursday and Thursday night, providing dry conditions across WNY & the North Country. Cloud cover over the region will diminish with clear to partly cloudy conditions for most of the region. Mostly sunny skies expected for Thursday, with increasing temperatures, as a warm front passes well to the north of the region, and southerly flow develops. Temperatures on Thursday will warm to the upper 70s and low 80s, with some mid 70s expected for the higher terrain.
Clouds will start to increase some from west to east late Thursday night, as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the west. Dry conditions expected for Thursday night with showers remaining well to the west of the area. Lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
A stalled boundary/front will be in place from the Upper Great Lakes to James Bay early Friday. A surface low will develop over the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Friday, and track northeast along the stalled boundary. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast, the boundary will start to slowly track east toward the region. The daylight hours on Friday should be mostly dry, with the chance for showers increasing from west to east Friday night.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
On Saturday the above mentioned wave of low pressure will pass by to our northwest...with its associated frontal boundary impinging on our western periphery. The approaching front and increasing diurnal instability should combine to generate at least some scattered showers and thunderstorms...with the greatest potential for these found across far western/northern New York...which will lie closest to the surface boundary.
After that...the forecast details will be heavily dictated by the position of the frontal boundary...which will in turn be influenced by the balance between building ridging over the western Atlantic and multiple additional waves of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. At this point the medium range guidance remains at least somewhat at odds as to which of these features will have more influence...though there does seem to be at least some semblance of a trend toward the western Atlantic ridge eventually becoming more dominant over time...as exhibited by the ECMWF/GFS.
Should the above come to fruition...the frontal zone would likely not make it any further east between Saturday night and Sunday... before gradually getting displaced a little further back to our west early on next week. Such an evolution in the pattern would keep our region on the warm side of the front and thus in a warm and humid airmass through the end of this period...while the still-close proximity of the boundary and increasing daytime instability still yielding at least some potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day...and nocturnal stabilization then leading to a relative minimum in convective activity later on each night.
Brisk west to northwest winds will support waves over 4 feet and result in small craft advisory conditions on Lake Ontario through this evening. Surface high pressure crossing the Lower Lakes later tonight will diminish the winds and allow wave heigheights to subside on the Lakes.
A gradual warming trend will then commence Wednesday through the end of the week with winds and waves generally below small craft thresholds.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 2am EDT Wednesday for NYZ003>006.
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ042.