Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts, Then Waterspouts Likely Late. A Chance Of Showers, Then Showers Likely Late. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. Waterspouts Likely. Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Waterspouts Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Waterspouts Overnight. Showers. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Friday Night. Waves 1 To 2 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming North And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less Building To 3 To 5 Feet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1028pm EDT Tuesday Oct 8 2024 Synopsis Cyclonic flow along with cool temperatures aloft, passing disturbances and increased moisture at times will result in periods of showers tonight through Wednesday. The best chance for showers will be south and southeast of the lakes. Cooler temperatures can be expected through Thursday before a brief warmup for the end of the week into the weekend. Near Term - Through Wednesday Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough across the eastern Great Lakes region this evening. Lake enhanced rain bands are east-southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. As drier air filters into the region, showers will fade as they move east overnight. Temperatures tonight will drop down to the upper 30s to mid 40s with a mixture of synoptic and lake clouds remaining over the area. Some areas could drop into the lower to mid 30s with patchy frost possible if skies clear enough. Expect that showers will reinvigorate toward Wednesday morning as synoptic moisture increases ahead of a fairly robust shortwave digging southward into the region. This shortwave and associated moisture will cross the region during the day Wednesday with shower potentially becoming fairly widespread, especially downwind of the lakes aided by lake enhancement as 850 mb temperatures cool to near 0C. Thunder with graupel or even small hail is possible within this colder regime. Clouds along with cold advection will likely hold temperatures down in the mid to upper 50s, with upper 40s to lower 50s for the higher terrain. Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday A shortwave rounding the upper level low will bring one more wave of deeper moisture/colder air aloft for Wednesday night into Thursday. Lake effect rain, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, south and southeast of Lake Ontario will diminish through the night as the deeper moisture pushes eastward. Cool Thursday with 850 hPa temperatures at or below zero Celsius for much of the region. Highs in a few areas may not get out of the 40s. This cold start and clear skies for Thursday night as well as a weakening wind flow with surface high pressure building in will make for high potential for frost formation, especially inland from the lakes. This high will grant fair weather for Friday with temperatures moderating back to normal. Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday For the long term, a cold front with not a lot of moisture will drop across the region Friday night. Best spot for measurable precipitation will be Lake Ontario and points eastward. There will be an uptick in the winds with the front as the pressure gradient tightens, with overnight gusts into the upper 20s to low 30 mph range. Any lingering showers along the front towards the east will end early Saturday with sunshine returning. It should be a nice autumn day with highs in the lower 60s. This cold front to our south will return back northward Sunday as a warm front. A little instability of 200 to 400 J/KG of MUCAPE along the front, and near the warmer waters of Lake Erie may allow for a rumble of thunder Saturday night. Both Sunday (south-southeasterly) and Monday (west to northwest) could be windy based on the track of the surface low as well as how much it deepens, and how low the LLJ becomes. Another cool, upper level low will pass over the region Monday and Tuesday with showers and lake effect rain around. Marine Moderate to occasionally fresh westerlies this evening will maintain choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. There will be a brief period of small craft conditions on the eastern end of Lake Erie. A steady, westerly wind will bring small craft conditions to Lake Ontario tonight, possibly going into Wednesday. A chilly airmass and relatively warm lakes will produce steep enough lapse rates to support the development of waterspouts, especially on Lake Ontario. This risk will decrease this afternoon before the risk increases again toward Wednesday morning and continues through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will increase enough Wednesday to bring the potential for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to the south shore of Lake Ontario and to the Lake Erie shoreline. High pressure builds over the lower Great Lakes by Thursday with conditions improving for the second half of the week. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 8am Wednesday to 5am EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Thursday for LOZ042-045. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Thursday for LOZ043- 044. |
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