Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...West Winds To 30 Knots. Occasional Lake Effect Snow. Waves 10 To 13 Feet Subsiding To 7 To 11 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 16 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 25 Knots. Lake Effect Snow Through The Early Overnight, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers Late. Waves 6 To 10 Feet Subsiding To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning, Then Lake Effect Snow Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. Lake Effect Snow Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Lake Effect Snow Showers Likely. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Friday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Saturday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain Showers Likely During The Day, Then Rain Showers Likely With A Chance Of Snow Showers Saturday Night. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 627am EST Tuesday Jan 14 2025 Synopsis Moderate to heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will continue through tonight with several north to south oscillations with time. Significant accumulations are expected south of Buffalo off Lake Erie and across the Tug Hill Plateau region east of Lake Ontario. Gusty winds will also produce blowing and drifting snow. Winds will become northwest tonight through Wednesday, with weaker lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Another front will cross the area Thursday with light snow showers and areas of lake enhanced snow east of the lakes. Near Term - Through Tonight ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TODAY... Lake effect snow continuing east of the lakes this morning and has now shifted a bit farther south into the Southern Tier and across the Tug Hill Plateau, as the low level flow has become more westerly. Through the day today, lake parameters become more favorable as a mid level trough approaches, then eventually crosses the region from the northwest later in the day. Moisture profiles improve ahead of the trough with the core of the coldest air moving overhead, allowing lake induced equilibrium levels to briefly rise to over 10K feet, before slowly falling off again in the wake of the trough passage tonight. Outside of lake effect areas, mainly dry weather today although there will be periods of flurries and light snow showers through the day today. It will also remain quite windy today with gusts of 25-35 mph common across the area, strongest on the lake plains. This will continue to generate some blowing and drifting snow in lake effect areas. Off Lake Erie... The most significant lake snows have shifted south into the western Southern Tier, across northern Chautauqua, and northern Cattaraugus counties. Lake snows also continuing through southern Erie (south of Orchard Park/East Aurora) and into Wyoming county, with the eastern edge of the snows edging into southern Livingston and northern Allegany counties. With the approach of the mid level trough, the steering flow will back a little today. This will oscillate the more significant snow back northward into southern Erie and Wyoming counties later this morning through about mid afternoon. With the improving lake parameters expect there will be an uptick in snowfall rates within the heart of the lake band up to 2" per hour. The mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon and this evening, with the steering flow quickly veering to northwest. This will send lake effect snow back southward into the western Southern Tier. Lake effect will evolve into a northwest upslope flow event along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills, along with an upstream Lake Huron connection meandering across the Southern Tier, locally enhancing snowfall rates. The only changes to headlines with this forecast was to place Livingston and Allegany counties into a winter weather advisory for additional snowfall of 2 to 5 inches, on the eastern edge of the lake band through the day today with some blowing and drifting snow possible. Off Lake Ontario... Better organized lake plume across far southern Jefferson, southern Lewis and northern Oswego counties. Snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour within the heart of the band likely occurring across the Tug Hill. There will not be much change in band placement through much of the day today, other than some minor north-south oscillation. The lake band should become even better organized today with improving lake parameters and full lake fetch. Snowfall rates could nudge upward for a time and could peak to as much as 4-5" per hour. The mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon and this evening, with the steering flow quickly veering to northwest. This will carry the lake effect snow southward across Oswego County, with still intense 2+" per hour snowfall rates. The band will move farther southwest into portions of Wayne/Cayuga counties and weaken as the fetch shortens and inversion heigheights quickly fall after the trough passage. With expected locally moderate accumulations across eastern Wayne and northern Cayuga counties have issued a winter weather advisory. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night A mid-level trough over the Canadian Maritimes will move east while being replaced with weak ridging across the Great Lakes region Wednesday. Another mid-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night through Thursday. Cold, northwest flow will continue across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Wednesday through Thursday night. Winter weather headlines continue Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Off Lake Erie... Northwest flow will direct lake effect snow showers across southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties Wednesday morning. Moisture is pretty shallow with soundings showing lake induced equilibrium levels around 5k feet. The saturated boundary layer is fully in the DGZ so snow showers should still produce accumulations with the higher totals from the Chautauqua Ridge into the Boston Hills. Boundary layer flow will back through the day while drier air works into the area. Snow showers will weaken as they expand into central Erie and Genesee and Wyoming counties while continuing across the Southern Tier. Snowfall accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible along the Chautauqua Ridge to the Boston Hills. As winds continue to back Wednesday night, boundary layer flow will become 230-240 flow overnight. This may intensify snow showers for a few hours and bring 1-3 inches to the Northtowns by daybreak Thursday. Snow showers will weaken as they exit to the north Thursday morning. There will be a very brief period of quiet weather before moisture ahead of the next trough approaches western NY. A general light snow will enter western NY Thursday afternoon. A trough axis will swing through the region. Lake enhancement will intensity snow showers across the Greater Buffalo region into Thursday evening before settling south of Buffalo late Thursday night. A general 1-2 inches is possible with 2-3 inches south of Buffalo Thursday through Thursday night. Off Lake Ontario... Northwest flow will direct lake effect snow showers across the southern shore of Lake Ontario into the Finger Lakes region Wednesday morning. Snow showers will be trending down as drier air works into the region, however additional accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible in the most persistent lake bands southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday. Snow showers will lift northward Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. As the flow becomes more westerly, snow showers will intensify with hints of an upstream connection Wednesday night. Snow showers will be directed into the Tug Hill region Wednesday night. Forecast soundings show lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 8k feet as the band moves into the Tug Hill region. This could produce a period of heavy snow into Thursday morning. Accumulations of 2-4 inches is possible from the lakeshore to the Tug Hill. Higher amounts are possible. The flow continues to back and lake effect snow showers will move into the Saint Lawrence Valley before ending Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of the next trough and light snow will move into the eastern Lake Ontario region. Lake effect snow will begin again across the Tug Hill region Thursday night. An additional few inches are possible. Long Term - Friday Through Monday There will be a reprieve of the cold, snowy weather Friday through Friday night as a mid-level ridge moves into the eastern Great Lakes region. There is high confidence that a strong cold front will move through the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend. Rain and snow showers will accompany the cold front but the main story will be the frigid temperatures entering the region. This arctic airmass will likely result in sub-zero wind chills and lake effect snow showers east of the Lakes into early next week. Marine Strong westerlies will continue today, with high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northwest tonight and Wednesday behind a trough, and start to diminish. Small Craft Advisory conditions may briefly end Wednesday afternoon, but winds will quickly increase again Wednesday night through Thursday as another trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 1am EST Thursday for NYZ004-005. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1pm EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4am EST Thursday for NYZ012- 019-020-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for NYZ013- 021. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Wednesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Wednesday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Wednesday for LOZ042-045. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Wednesday for LOZ043- 044. |
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