Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming South 15 To 20 Knots. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Friday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Sunday Night. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 720pm EDT Tuesday August 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Rain showers, some of the lake-effect variety, end this early evening and will be followed by fair weather through Wednesday. 2.) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected this Wednesday night through Friday. Key Message 1...Rain showers, some of the lake-effect variety, end this early evening and will be followed by fair weather through Wednesday. NW'erly flow aloft becomes W'erly tonight as a high at the surface and aloft builds from the central Great Lakes and vicinity. Primarily fair weather is expected through tonight as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. However, the passage of shortwave troughs embedded in the NW'erly flow aloft and attendant surface trough axes coinciding with weak diurnal boundary layer instability will continue to generate scattered rain showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario Region and vicinity through this early evening. In addition, isolated to scattered lake-effect rain showers focused generally southeast of Lake Ontario, amidst a NW'erly to WNW'erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold and moist air over/downwind of the ~23C lake, are expected to end by around sunset this evening as lake- induced CAPE wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying the ridge. A few lake-effect sprinkles are possible generally southeast of Lake Erie through this very early evening before ending amidst the waning lake-induced CAPE. Highs should reach the mid 60's to mid 70's late this afternoon. The coolest highs are expected in the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier and Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Partial clearing and easing surface winds should contribute to lows reaching the 50's in most locales around daybreak Wednesday, but mid to upper 40's are expected in some of the deeper valleys of the Western Southern Tier and Black River Valley, where cool air drainage will complement nocturnal cooling. The efficient nocturnal cooling and lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall should result in river and lake valley steam fog, and patchy radiation fog, late this evening and especially during the predawn hours through shortly after daybreak on Wednesday in the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region. On Wednesday, the ridge at the surface and aloft will begin to exit toward New England and net low-level WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) will impact our region along the western flank of the surface ridge. The WAA, continued fair weather, and intervals of sunshine will allow late afternoon highs to reach the 70's to lower 80's. Key Message 2...Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected this Wednesday night through Friday. During Wednesday night, the aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft will continue to exit E'ward and allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward through Western and Central NY as a shortwave trough approaches from the western Great Lakes. The front will usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially after midnight, as weak CAPE, including elevated CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the front and ahead of the shortwave trough axis; low-level convergence/moist ascent along the surface warm front. Lows should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Thursday as net low-level WAA ahead of and behind the warm front and an increase in humidity contribute to a milder night. On Thursday through Friday, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse our region generally from west to east. At the surface, a cold front should sweep E'ward through Western and Central NY Thursday evening through Friday morning. Behind the front, a surface ridge should build from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70's to lower 80's on Thursday. Lows should reach the 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Friday. Highs should reach the 70's late Friday afternoon as a somewhat cooler air mass overspreads our area behind the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front as sufficient instability, including elevated CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead of shortwave trough axes; low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave troughs and the cold front; downshear outflow boundaries interacting favorably with low-level vertical wind shear. A few severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and early evening, when moderate deep-layer bulk shear may coincide with moderate diurnal destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer. The occurrence of severe storms will be contingent on multiple factors, including whether enough cloud breaks support moderate diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer, steeper low-level lapse rates, and greater DCAPE. Behind the front, widespread fair weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the aforementioned surface ridge. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible behind the cold front as the passage of additional shortwave troughs and attendant surface trough axes coincide with at least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL and weak diurnal destabilization of the boundary layer late Friday morning through early evening as surface dew points remain near 55F to 60F in the cool sector. Marine Relatively-quiet marine conditions are expected through Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds from the western and central Great Lakes. During Wednesday night, the ridge should exit E'ward, allow a warm front to sweep NE'ward across Lakes Erie and Ontario, and cause primarily SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to S'erly to SW'erly and freshen to 10 to nearly 20 knots. Waves should be mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are possible. A cold front should sweep E'ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday evening through Thursday night and be followed by a ridge building from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through Friday. Accordingly, S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to nearly 20 knots ahead of the cold front veer to NW'erly and then toward NE'erly behind the front and ease to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers are possible ahead of the front and for a short while behind the front. The ridge is expected to crest E'ward across the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday and then begin to exit toward New England this Sunday. Variable winds around 5 knots on Saturday should be followed by mainly SE'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots on Saturday. Waves should be 2 feet or less. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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