Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Scattered Showers Late This Morning. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Early, Then Showers From Late Evening On. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 624am EDT Sunday May 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased the probability of showers tonight. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periods of rain will end from west to east this morning, with a return to dry weather this afternoon. 2) Gusty winds across the higher terrain and the northern Tug Hill region today. 3) Above normal and mostly dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of rain will end from west to east this morning, with a return to dry weather this afternoon. An area of low pressure over eastern Michigan and southern Lake Huron will slowly dissipate as it moves north today. While a warm front remains across the forecast area, a 40-50 knot low-level jet continues to support periods of rain, primarily along and east of the Genesee Valley. A stream of drier air moving in from the west this morning will cause rain to become more showery before ending across western NY by mid-morning and across the eastern Lake Ontario region by this afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to range from less than a tenth of an inch across western NY to between 0.15 and 0.50 inches across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Clouds are expected to linger throughout the day, however a southerly, downslope flow will likely provide some break sin coverage across the lower elevations of western NY. KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty winds across the higher terrain and the northern Tug Hill region today. A 40-50 knot low level jet across the region will move east today. Wind gusts have diminished along the northwest slope of the Chautauqua Ridge, however wind gusts up to 35 mph remain possible across the higher terrain of western NY early this morning. Wind gusts are expected to increase across the northern Tug Hill region today, with gusts up to 40 mph at times. KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal and mostly dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday. As the base of a mid-level trough moves east Monday morning, dry and warmer weather will be the story through midweek. Mean 850mb temperatures are expected to range from +12-14C through the period and support high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. Afternoon lake breezes will keep lakeshore locations cooler. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 50s. A cold front will push south out of SE Canada Wednesday, and could produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm but will be working with limited moisture. Cooler, but near normal conditions then develop into next weekend. Marine Southeast winds will gradually decline across Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario this morning, while increasing on the eastern end of Lake Ontario today. The greater waves will remain offshore, however 15 to 25 knots are expected through early this morning on Lake Erie and western Lake Erie and through this evening on eastern Lake Ontario. Light winds and more favorable boating conditions will return Monday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT this morning for LEZ040. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ044-045. |
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