Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...East Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming North. A Chance Of Rain Showers Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Saturday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Rain Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming South And Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 2 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 632am EDT Fri May 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather through the start of the weekend. 2) Potential for additional frost or freeze headlines tonight and Saturday night. KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather through the start of the weekend. An upper level low will remain across southeastern Canada, supporting a general troughing pattern across the Great Lakes into the start of the weekend. With the troughing pattern overhead, a few shortwave troughs will ripple through, maintaining northwest flow across the region. A pool of cold air aloft, combined with diurnal heating will support isolated to scattered showers today and Saturday. The best coverage of showers will be this afternoon along and south of the NYS Thruway as a decaying cold front crosses. Colder air behind the front may support a mix with some graupel/snow Saturday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for additional frost or freeze headlines tonight and Saturday night. Upper level low parked over southeastern Canada, will support a general troughing pattern across the eastern Great Lakes through the weekend. Cold advection and northwest flow will drop temperatures into the 30s tonight with some 20s across the hilltops. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night with less potential for cloud cover. NBM probabilities showing 60-90% of low temperatures less than 33F. Frost or freeze headlines will likely be needed for both tonight and Saturday night across much of western New York and into the Finger Lakes where the growing season started May 1. Marine Conditions on the lower Great Lakes will remain generally quiet through the weekend. Winds will predominately be out of the west to northwest at speeds of 15 knots or less. High pressure departing the region by early next week will cause winds to turn southwest and increase to near 20 knots at times Monday through Tuesday, perhaps peaking as high as 25 knots Monday night. Choppy conditions will develop during this period with small craft headlines possibly needed for at least a portion of this time. Climate Our very wet spring continued through the month of April...with both Buffalo and Watertown posting Aprils that were among the top 10 wettest on record. The monthly precipitation totals for our three climate sites were as follows: Buffalo - 5.58" (6th wettest on record) Rochester - 4.08" (tied for 14th wettest on record) Watertown - 5.16" (5th wettest on record) Coupled with the extremely wet March...the above resulted in combined March-April precipitation totals that were either the wettest or 2nd wettest on record. For our three climate sites, these were as follows: Buffalo - 11.91" (wettest on record - previous wettest 11.80"/1991) Rochester - 9.97" (2nd wettest on record, behind only 11.73"/1873) Watertown - 9.79" (wettest on record - previous wettest 8.43"/2011) Note that periods of record go back to January 1871 for Buffalo and Rochester, and May 1949 for Watertown. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Frost Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for NYZ001>006- 010>014-019-085. Marine None. |
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