Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

S
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ065 Forecast Issued: 1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Overnight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 3 To 6 Feet.
Monday...North Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Monday Night...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. Rain. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday...Northwest Winds To 30 Knots Becoming North 15 To 25 Knots. Rain And Snow Showers Likely During The Day. Waves 3 To 6 Feet.
Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Friday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153am EDT Monday April 22 2024

Synopsis
High pressure nosing northeast from the Ohio valley will supply us with a nice start to the work week...guaranteeing ample sunshine with the mercury rebounding some 5 to degrees higher than those from Sunday. The fair dry weather will last through at least the first half of Tuesday...then a slow moving cold front will produce widespread rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry weather will then return for Thursday and Friday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
A moisture starved cold front will cross the area tonight bringing one last shot of cooler air that will keep temperatures below normal through the start of the new work week. Other than a few light rain showers for the Eastern Lake Ontario region overnight, high pressure builds across the region providing dry weather and lighter winds for through Monday. Chilly night on tap with mid and upper 20s higher terrain and low to mid 30s elsewhere. As mentioned, temperatures will remain below average for Monday, however airmass will modify some. This will yield highs ranging from the mid and upper 40s across the higher terrain, to the low and mid 50s elsewhere.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Wednesday Night
Main focus this period continues to be on the next round of widespread soggy weather followed by a sharp cooldown around the midweek timeframe.

High pressure will slowly shrink off the East Coast Monday night through Tuesday. This will maintain dry and relatively milder weather to start the period as warmer air advects into the region on the backside of the high. Lows Monday night will range from the low 40s across far western NY to the mid/low 30s across the North Country. As the area sits firmly within the next incoming system's warm sector, highs Tuesday should top out in the low to mid 60s. A 50kt 850H jet embedded within the WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) regime will likely lead to a breezy day northeast of Lake Erie, with gusts of 30-35mph expected.

This system will come in the form of a robust mid-level shortwave sliding east across the Great Lakes Tuesday. As it trudges eastward, this shortwave is expected to partially phase with a deeper closed low wobbling along the eastern shores of Hudson Bay, as well as a weaker shortwave moving across the Mississippi Valley. This will create a deeper longwave troughing pattern that will dig across the Northeast through Wednesday before shifting to the Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday night. Several waves of surface low pressure are expected to form ahead of the primary mid-level trough axis, with broad-scale cyclogenesis allowing the system to tap into a reservoir of GOMEX based moisture. While a few showers or a stray thunderstorm could reach far western NY late Tuesday afternoon/evening, a swath of soaking rain will move through the region Tuesday night courtesy of broad scale ascent under the poleward exit region of a 110kt upper level jet. Little to no hydrological concerns at this juncture given the dry conditions earlier in the week...Basin averaged Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts through Wednesday morning will average 0.25-0.5" in most areas, a bit higher at 0.5- 0.75" east of the lakes.

The system's main cold front will begin to plow through the region behind the rain Wednesday morning. Mid-range guidance is starting to come into better agreement on the progression of this front and how much cold air spills into the region behind it. Due to discrepancies on the amount of phasing between the shortwave over the Great Lakes and the low near Hudson Bay, previous runs of the GFS (Global Forecast System) were significantly colder (850H temps bottoming out around -12C) than the deterministic CMCNH/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and their respective ensembles (closer to - 2C). While there remains uncertainty in the timing and true depth of the cold airmass, the trend among the latest guidance has been somewhere in the middle of these solutions, with the overall consensus leaning colder. Should these trends hold, this will support a strong non-diurnal temperature curve with the front Wednesday, with temps sharply falling across the region from the 40s early in the morning well into the 30s through the remainder of the day. While temps at the surface and aloft will support at least a partial changeover to wet snow, this colder airmass also looks to be quite a bit drier with most of the region precip-free by the afternoon. This, combined with the strong late April sun angle, should greatly minimize the threat of snow sticking anywhere other than the highest hilltops south of Buffalo and east of Lake Ontario.

Within the post-frontal airmass and under mostly clear skies, Wednesday night is expected to be downright cold. Lows will likely be sub-freezing across the entire region, through bottoming out in the low 20s across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and North Country.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
A large Canadian surface high along with increased ridging will provide dry weather for Thursday and most of Friday. The surface high will center over the forecast area by Thursday night and track to the New England coast by Saturday morning.

A weakening trough and surface low will track across the plains on Friday and center over the Great Lakes on Saturday night. This will result in increasing rain potential starting later Friday evening/overnight as the warm front out ahead of the system approaches/crosses the region. Showers and periods of steadier rain will continue through much of Saturday as a plume of GOMEX moisture pushes north across the Ohio Valley. With the warm sector of the system over the region, there will be the chance for some thunderstorms on Saturday, with the best chance for some storms over the southwestern portions of the area. Still some uncertainty as far as shower/rain amount goes among guidance with the GFS keeping the surface low track closer to the forecast area and keeping the trough a bit stronger as well. Other forecast models limit the moisture influx and pull the surface low farther north, resulting in less precipitation overall. Showers should continue into Sunday with more breaks, especially into the afternoon.

Temperatures during the period will be below normal to start with warming each day to above normal by the weekend.

Marine
High pressure nosing into the region from the Ohio valley will allow winds and waves to subside a bit through daybreak...then to remain below small craft advisory criteria through Monday night.

Southerly winds will become southwesterly and freshen Tuesday and will likely result in Small Craft Advisory conditions into midweek.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
None.

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