Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

SATURDAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ065 Forecast Issued: 357 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Today...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet.
Tonight...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 5 To 9 Feet Subsiding To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Sunday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.
Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.
Tuesday...East Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Rain. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet, Then Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
359am EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Synopsis
Dry and cool weather will prevail today through Saturday morning. Low pressure will then move across the southern Great Lakes late Saturday through early Sunday morning, bringing a chance of spotty light rain. Mainly dry weather will then return during the day Sunday as weak high pressure builds back into the eastern Great Lakes.

Near Term - Through Tonight
IR satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across Western NY early this morning, with dense cirrus streaming across the eastern Lake Ontario region to the west of an elongated coastal low moving north offshore of New England. The clouds east of Lake Ontario will gradually clear from west to east through the early morning hours.

A mid level trough will gradually advance from the eastern Great Lakes this morning to New England tonight. Increasing large scale forcing from the approaching trough will allow the coastal low to spin up and intensify as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes late tonight, but much too far east to have any direct influence on our weather. Despite the passage of the mid level trough today, the airmass is quite dry, with just a shallow layer of low level moisture available.

The low level moisture and cold air aloft will allow plenty of diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus to develop today inland from the lake shadows. The most dense low level cloud cover will develop along a well defined convergence zone forced by backed flow over Lake Erie. This band of enhanced cloud cover will stretch from the Niagara Region of Ontario across Buffalo, extending ESE into the western Finger Lakes. Expect dry weather to prevail, although a few light sprinkles cannot be ruled out from any of the taller towering cumulus.

The convergence zones and diurnal cumulus will break down this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The airmass will be cold enough to support lake effect clouds overnight southeast of Lake Ontario from the Monroe County lakeshore east to Wayne/Cayuga counties. Forecast soundings suggest the moisture will be very shallow and removed from a mixed phase layer well above in the dry air. The shallow moisture and unfavorable cloud microphysics should prevent any lake effect showers from developing, with the lake response limited to cloud cover.

Cool temperatures will continue. Highs today will be in the low to mid 40s in most areas, and upper 30s for higher terrain. Lows tonight will drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with mid 20s for the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County.

Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
A surface low will track just south of our region Saturday and Saturday night, replaced by surface high pressure Sunday.

To start Saturday, a dry airmass will likely yield mainly clear skies with these clear skies and low dewpoints holding on across eastern zones through the day. A light breeze to start the day across eastern zones will diminish through the day as a deep Atlantic low pushes eastward across Atlantic Canada.

Clouds will increase across the west through the day, with rain along a warm front sneaking across the state line. The surface low and rain showers will slide east-southeast, following an initial shortwave cresting a mid level ridge. Meanwhile a second shortwave with a bit more amplitude will cross our region Saturday night, bringing more widespread, but light rain and snow showers to our region. Under this shortwave, rain showers changing to snow east of Lake ONtario may accumulate a wet half to one inch on the Tug Hill by Sunday morning. This activity will exit east of Lake Ontario early Sunday morning, leaving our region dry with increasing amounts of sunshine through the afternoon for Easter Sunday. Later Sunday and Sunday night, a developing baroclinic boundary stretching eastward will increase clouds from west to east, with a few rain showers possible along and south of the NYS Thruway.

Temperatures Sunday will be a few degrees cooler behind the shortwave troughs, with highs close to normal.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Active weather this period as a deep upper level trough over the Rockies ejects a storm system across the Plains. A baroclinic boundary stretched across the Midwest and southern mid Atlantic States may yield a few showers Monday through Monday night.

There are still plenty of model differences to the track of the storm Tuesday - Wednesday, but rain showers will become likely, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday as the 00Z GFS (Global Forecast System) suggest over 500 J/KG MUCAPE. There may also be a decent temperature gradient across our region Tuesday, with southerly flow near the state line producing lower 60s, while east to northeast flow north of the Thruway, and off the cool Lake Ontario waters may keep areas north of Thruway in the upper 40s through the day.

Precipitation looks mainly rain Wednesday, but behind the surface low cold air advection (850 hPa temperatures -6 to -8C) will change rain to accumulating snow, especially Wednesday night and into Thursday. Greatest amounts will be on the upslope higher terrain of SW NYS, and Tug Hill.

Marine
Elongated low pressure east of New England will consolidate into a deepening low over the Gulf of Maine this afternoon, then move into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. The deepening low will tighten the pressure gradient over the lower Great Lakes today, bringing a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon and tonight. Winds will be strongest on the east half of Lake Ontario, with sustained winds reaching 25-30 knots later this afternoon and evening resulting in higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will be lower on the west end of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie, but still strong enough to support a period of Small Craft Advisory waves.

Winds will gradually diminish from west to east late tonight and Saturday as the strong coastal low moves into northern Quebec and weakens.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 11pm EDT this evening for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 5am EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 11am this morning to 11am EDT Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 11am EDT Saturday for LOZ045.

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