Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast. Showers. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Showers. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest. A Chance Of Showers Friday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms During The Day, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Saturday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms During The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Sunday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
258am EDT Wednesday May 18 2022
Clearing skies and diminishing winds will result in patchy frost overnight well inland from the lakes. A warm front will then move across the region late Wednesday through early Thursday with periods of rain. This warm front will usher in much warmer air to end the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Clouds east of Lake Ontario clearing out as drier air and subsidence just upstream move into the region, while mainly clear skies will remain across western NY overnight. That said, with H850 temps bottoming out around 0C, IR Satellite showing that a cool NWerly flow is causing some lake induced clouds to advect in across areas along the southern shore of Lake Ontario from Orleans County eastward.
The clear skies and light winds will bring the potential for frost development late tonight and early Wednesday morning, well inland from the lakes. Coldest temperatures in the mid 30s forecast across the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario, therefore the Frost Advisory for these areas remains in effect. Patchy frost is certainly possible for sheltered areas of the remaining counties as well.
High pressure quickly passes through Wednesday as a warm front develops to our southwest over the Ohio Valley. Clouds will gradually thicken over the area after morning sunshine. Dry low levels should hold advancing area of rain off until at least the late afternoon for far western New York. High temperatures will improve into the low to mid 60s for most locations with some of the warmer spots reaching the upper 60s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday Night
Expect a progressive weather pattern through the remainder of the work week as rather zonal flow aloft during the middle portions of the week will amplify by the the end of the work week.
Diving into the details, an upper level shortwave trough will dive southeast through the quasi-zonal flow across the Great Lakes Wednesday night and support a surface low to push east-northeast across the northeastern portions of the Ohio Valley early Wednesday evening and New York State Wednesday night through Thursday. With this low, forcing and moisture advection will increase across western and north central New York Wednesday night through Thursday morning thus creating the likelihood of rain showers during this time. Additionally expect around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain to fall region wide with this system. Instability continues to remain low and therefore continue to not expect any thunder during this time.
The system will exit east during the second half of the day Thursday, causing showers to taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, upper level ridging and surface high pressure will quickly push across the region keeping conditions on the dry side.
The pattern aloft becomes more amplified Friday as the next upper level trough digs across the Mid-West and upper Great Lakes. This pattern will support another surface low over the Upper Great Lakes and southwestern Ontario Canada Friday. As the day progresses Friday, an attached warm front to the aforementioned low will push across the area and support warm air and moisture advection across the region, resulting in chances for showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Additionally with the warm air advection regime, the western and north central New York areas are looking at a rather warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
The amplified and progressive pattern will continue into next weekend. The trough across eastern North America early in the week will be replaced by a strong ridge along the east coast by Friday and Saturday as the trough reloads across the Northern Plains. The ridge will move quickly off the east coast by Sunday, allowing the upstream trough to move into the Great Lakes by early next week.
A brief surge of very warm air will arrive at the end of the week, and this will support highs in the 80s again Saturday as long as most of the convection holds off until later in the day. Given the timing of the upstream trough and the typical diurnal cycle, expect convection to be sparse Saturday morning, and then increase in coverage during the afternoon and evening. Stronger forcing is still upstream, so if the timing holds convection may concentrate along lake breeze boundaries, with stable lake shadows reducing the chance of rain northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
Height falls/DPVA from the approaching trough and the surface cold front will cross the area Saturday night into at least early Sunday, with associated forcing and deep moisture providing an ongoing chance of showers and thunderstorms. The rain will end from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold front.
High pressure will settle into the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday night with a return to drier and notably cooler weather. The high will start to drift east across New England Tuesday. The next trough will move into the western Great Lakes in the afternoon, but current model timing suggests the next rain chances will not arrive here until Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Some gusty winds remain across the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Ontario, thus Small craft headlines remain in place through early this morning.
High pressure building in will bring light winds and negligible waves for Wednesday. Winds become W to WSW and freshen some by Thursday which will bring some light chop back to area waters, however no headlines are anticipated.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Frost Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for NYZ006>008-012- 019>021-085.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for LOZ043-044.