Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tonight...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
243pm EDT Sat September 19 2020
Canadian high pressure will gradually cross our region the rest of the weekend. This will allow for fair chilly weather with fairly widespread frost tonight and Sunday night inland from the lakes. The normally colder areas of the Southern Tier and North Country will likely experience a hard freeze. Temperatures through Sunday night will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
Growing season has ended for Lewis county, but continues for rest of our forecast area. Please see latest PNSBUF for details.
Chilly afternoon with temps mainly in the mid to upper 50s even with partly to mostly sunny skies. A bit more lake clouds hanging on to southeast of Lake Ontario. With high pressure overhead tonight, will be another cold night. However, there is potential for more mid and high clouds than last night especially over northern sections, including the Niagara Frontier and the Finger Lakes to the North Country as shortwave and associated clouds over Upper Lakes track southeast. These clouds should hold temps up enough and prohibit radiational cooling/frost formation closer from the Niagara Frontier to southeast of Lake Ontario, so no headlines there tonight. Farther inland and over interior sections of North Country, temps could still drop to lower to mid 30s, so have issued another round of frost advisories and freeze warnings as outlined below.
On Sunday, temps aloft warm slightly so we will gain a few degrees for afternoon highs. Still cool though with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Normal highs are around 70. Sunday night, high pressure is still overhead and there is less cloud cover so a good radiational cooling night looks in store. Probably will see more of a widespread frost or freeze inland from the lakes than what will occur tonight.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
High pressure will remain across the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Monday night as Hurricane Teddy moves north and well off the New England coast. Warmer temperatures will enter the region Monday with afternoon highs getting into the 60s. Temperatures will also be warmer overnight with lows in the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain to the low to mid 40s across the Lake Plains. Patchy frost will be confined to interior Southern Tier and portions of Lewis county.
As Hurricane Teddy approaches Nova Scotia, surface high pressure will become centered across the lower Ohio Valley and stretch across much of the eastern half of the Lower 48. Dry weather will persist Tuesday and Tuesday night. Oddly enough, warm air advection from the northwest will allow 850mb temperatures to reach +12 C with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Mild temperatures expected Tuesday night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
High pressure will remain in place over the east coast through most of the week, providing quiet weather for the area through at least most of Thursday.
From Thursday evening through the rest of the long term period is where guidance splits on the forecast. The GFS brings a cold front through the region with another chilly below normal stretch for late in the week. At the same time the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) brings a shortwave trough quickly followed by a large ridge. The GFS brings periods of showers across the area from Thursday night through the weekend, where the ECMWF is dry during this time. Put chance POPs in from Thursday night through the rest of the long term, with guidance expected to come into better agreement with time.
High temperatures during the long term period will start out Tuesday in the low 60s over the higher terrain to around 70 for the lower elevations. Temperatures will warm for Wednesday and Thursday to the mid 60s over the higher terrain to the mid and upper 70s for the lower elevations. High temperatures on Friday are going to be highly dependent on what model solution mentioned above actually comes to fruition or a compromise between the spread in guidance. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s each night.
A large area of high pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will drift east and become anchored over the Saint Lawrence Valley through Monday night.
As we work through tonight and Sunday, a moderate easterly flow will dominate both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Light winds and negligible waves will remain in place Monday.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am EDT Sunday for NYZ006-007-012>014-019-085. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8am EDT Sunday for NYZ020-021. MARINE...None.