Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence River Marine Forecast
| Overnight...East Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Patchy Fog Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming East. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds Less Than 10 Knots Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...South Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming North. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1047pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 Synopsis High pressure centered across New England and the eastern Great Lakes will maintain fair and warm weather, which will last at least through early next week. Near Term - Through Sunday The main challenge tonight will be where does the fog form. That said...high confidence that fog will develop in the typical river valleys in the Southern Tier and along the Black River. Areas of marine fog is more challenging, and will depend on subtle changes in wind direction. Anticipating marine stratus and fog will expand across Lake Ontario again tonight, and will slide south of the lake at times late tonight. Thus there's a risk fog will make it into parts of the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, although it's far from a certainty due to its patchy nature. Otherwise, tonight should be very slightly warmer than last night, with lows ranging from the lower 50s to around 60. Any fog or stratus will dissipate Sunday morning, before afternoon cumulus develop. A bit more cloud coverage expected on Sunday, but still sunny for the majority of the time. Temperatures should be similar to today, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night Deep-layer ridging draped from the central Great Lakes to New England Sunday night will weaken some while settling southeastward off the southern New England coastline Monday and Monday night... while low pressure (possibly subtropical or tropical in nature) makes its way toward/into the Carolinas. The slowly departing ridge will continue to keep moisture from this system suppressed well to our south through Monday night...thereby maintaining fair/dry weather across our region along with midsummerlike temperatures. With wildfire smoke aloft continuing to thin out...the only real blemish on the forecast to speak of through Monday night will be the usual overnight/early morning valley fog. Expect nighttime lows to predominantly range through the 50s (coolest across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country)...with daytime highs on Monday ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday and Tuesday night things will begin to change as the core of the blocking ridge recedes further southeastward into the open Atlantic...and the aforementioned coastal low makes its way further northwestward to the mid-Atlantic states/central Appalachians. The increasing/deepening southeasterly flow in between these two features will help to circulate increasing amounts of Atlantic moisture northwestward and into our region...with forcing for ascent around the periphery of the low potentially increasing enough to eventually support at least some lower-end shower chances south of Lake Ontario. While there's still quite a bit of disagreement amongst the various guidance packages as to when the potential for showers may arrive...the 12z guidance has trended a bit faster overall with this...and currently feel that there's enough of a signal in the guidance to aim above NBM guidance for this time frame. Have thus added a mix of slight chance to lower-end chance PoPs to the forecast for Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night for now... and could see the need for this to be raised further in subsequent packages should the faster trend/some of the faster guidance packages verify. Otherwise there will be little change in temperatures...with highs on Tuesday again in the mid 70s to lower 80s...and lows Tuesday night ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday Moisture will increase across the eastern Great Lakes region the second half of the week, however a rex block will maintain a strong ridge just north of the region. Overall, mainly dry and warm weather will continue with low chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. There is uncertainty in the placement and movement of an upper level low near the Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic region late in the week. The evolution of this low will dictate the details in availably moisture and therefore clouds and precipitation. An easterly low level jet will likely pump Atlantic moisture into the northern Mid- Atlantic reaching western NY by Thursday. There remains low chances for showers with slightly higher confidence in the afternoon/early evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out during this time. The upper low will likely move towards the eastern seaboard if not off the east coast Friday into Saturday as a strong ridge approaches from the Mississippi Valley. Mostly dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday. Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Saturday. Marine High pressure across the region will result in mainly light winds and negligible wave action on the lower Great Lakes through early next week. Light 5 to 10 knot lake breezes will develop during the afternoon hours each day. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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