Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tonight...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Northwest. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming West. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Friday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Saturday...North Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 145pm EDT Tuesday August 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Included patchy fog tonight across the western Southern Tier, especially for Chautauqua County. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue, mainly for the western Southern Tier through tonight and expanding to western and north-central NY for Wednesday afternoon. Key Message 1...Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue, mainly for the western Southern Tier through tonight and expanding to western and north-central NY for Wednesday afternoon. Generally northwest flow across much of the Great Lakes region with multiple shortwaves passing under the broad scale troughing pattern centered over the Hudson Bay. These shortwaves moving across the Midwest have brought continuous rounds of thunderstorms across IL/IN/OH, while a cold front looks to settle near the NY/PA border this afternoon with widely scattered showers across the Southern Tier. This placement will keep the majority of western and north- central NY dry through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The next approaching shortwave will pass through the lower Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area. Instability will be fairly marginal hovering around 500-750 J/kg per the latest HREF/REFS for the western Southern Tier extending up to the Niagara Frontier. However, enough for a few strong thunderstorms to develop with 700mb flow increasing to 30-35 kt in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds would be the main hazards with these storms. Instability will be much less farther east towards the north country, but better synoptic lift ahead of the jet max may aid in additional shower and storm development in the vicinity of the Tug Hill north into the St. Lawrence Valley through the early evening. Marine A cold front will continue to slide south stalling across central Lake Erie extending eastward along the NY/PA border. Showers and thunderstorms will move mainly along and south of the boundary this afternoon and evening. Generally weak gradients are expected Wednesday into Thursday with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms that could locally enhance flow and choppy waters for brief periods of time. High pressure will build into the lower Great Lakes Friday afternoon into the first half of the weekend. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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