Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
|Overnight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Friday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 15 Knots. Showers Likely. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
740pm EDT Tuesday September 22 2020
High pressure will maintain fair weather with a gradual warming trend this week.
Near Term - Through Wednesday Night
Area of mainly mid-high level clouds will move across the eastern Great Lakes with the frontal passage tonight, no pcpn. Otherwise, no issues with high pressure centered over Tennessee-Kentucky dominating our weather.
Skies should clear out later tonight and also take with it the smoke for Wednesday. It will be a milder night than the previous several nights. lows in the mid/upper 40s to low 50s.
Fair weather Wednesday-Wednesday night with next surface high building across Ohio Valley. Warming trend for the rest of the week.
Short Term - Thursday Through Saturday
A southward sagging weak cold front will stall out from north of Lake Ontario to far southern Quebec on Thursday as it bumps into high pressure ridging north across the region from the Mid Atlantic. With the best upper level support remaining in Canada, have just slight chance Probability of Precipitation making it as far south as the Canadian border for Thursday and Thursday night as the boundary lingers just to our north. However, if the weak front can sag a bit further southward, a few scattered light showers would not be out of the question from the Niagara Frontier northeastward to the northcountry.
Any rain chances toward the Canadian border will quickly fade by Friday morning as the frontal boundary retreats back to the north. A period of warm and dry weather is then expected through the first half of the weekend as high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard ridges west across the region keeping any rain associated with a storm system moving across the Mid Atlantic suppressed to our south.
A general south to southwest flow will provide the area with well above average temperatures with daytime highs generally in the 70s through the period, and even a few 80 degree readings possible across the typically warmer spots south of Lake Ontario on Saturday.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
The nice stretch of dry weather looks like it will come to an end heading into the second half of the weekend and the first part of next week as a much more amplified pattern starts to take shape. An upper trough will dig across the upper and central Great Lakes pushing a cold front across the region on Sunday bringing the likelihood of some much needed rain and opening the door to some more seasonable temperatures for late September.
A powerful shortwave will then rotate through the mean upper trough to start the new work week. This will help the trough to deepen further across the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridge builds north into western Canada. Not expecting a rain out through the entire period, however this will keep the potential for unsettled weather in the forecast through at least the first half of next week as a series of shortwaves rotate through the mean upper trough over the eastern U.S.
A period of strong winds may also become possible sometime Monday or Tuesday depending on the strength and possibly a climatologically favored track of surface low pressure moving by to our west and north. Stay tuned.
Otherwise, day to day cooling will occur through the period as daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday trend downward to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday.
High pressure will continue across the Lower Great Lakes, with generally 15 knots or less of wind expected through Friday.
A period of west to southwest winds of up to 20 knots is expected tonight into Wednesday on the western side of the tropical system tracking east of the region, perhaps bringing a period of small craft conditions to Lake Ontario east of Hamlin Beach.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories