Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
FORECAST FOR LOZ064 CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 817pm EDT Monday Oct 14 2024 Synopsis Chilly with showers and lake enhanced showers possible through mid- week. Some wet snow will mix in tonight and especially late Tuesday and on Tuesday night. Expansive high pressure builds in Wednesday afternoon bringing fair dry weather and a warming trend through the end of the week. Near Term - Through Tuesday Surface low pressure will continue to deepen as it slowly treks north across the Canadian Maritimes tonight, parent mid-level troughing extending back across the eastern Great Lakes. Cold Air Advection will continue to funnel in a chilly airmass, nudging H850T's down to -5C by early Tuesday morning. Some measure of low-level moisture in place, so most areas will continue to see plenty of cloud cover south and southeast of the lakes overnight. With cyclonic north-northwesterly flow in place, the main forecast challenge through much of Tuesday will be lake induced/upslope shower placement. BUFKIT profiles indicate a capping inversion generally between 6-8kft, though recent trends are indicating as the mid-level trough axis pivots towards the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley late tonight, this cap may become more elevated or even almost entirely erode...So while shower activity should generally be light (especially early on) coverage and intensity should increase southeast of the lakes after midnight. Model soundings look more favorable overall with greater moisture sneaking into the DGZ over Lake Erie, so have bumped up PoPs/Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over continuity with this update. Temperatures tonight will be even chillier than last night with a range of 30s expected in most areas, and even upper 20s across the Tug/Western Dacks. This will support a partial, if not full changeover to wet snow across the higher terrain areas east of the lakes overnight, though accumulations should remain limited and stay mainly confined to grassy and elevated surfaces... with amounts generally under an inch. The axis of the mid-level trough will slowly move through the forecast area on Tuesday bringing continued chances for showers. Shower coverage should lessen through the morning as a thin wedge of drier air moves through, before a cold front then drops south towards the Lower Lakes late in the day. This will bring a better chance of showers which will likely mix with wet snow across the higher terrain by the evening. Otherwise it will be another somewhat raw day with temps not climbing out of the 40s and breezy winds supplying an added chill to the November like temperatures. Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday Night One last robust shortwave will dive south through the main longwave trough that has been in place across the Great Lakes since the second half of this past weekend. This feature will not only bring one last uptick in rain and higher elevation snow shower activity Tuesday night into at least a portion of Wednesday, but will also help drag the main upper level trough axis through our region Wednesday, then to our east allowing strong high pressure to start to build in from the west. This expansive area of high pressure will then start to dry things out Wednesday afternoon/evening, and begin what will be a nice stretch of dry weather with day-to-day warming through the end of the work week into the upcoming weekend. Before we get to the dry and warmer weather mentioned above, we will have to endure another 18-24 hours of unsettled, chilly weather at the start of this period. The bulk of the most active weather will be tied to the aforementioned strong shortwave crossing the area that will bring one last bout of widespread, upslope, and lake enhanced precipitation to western and northcentral NY. As has been advertised in previous packages, this will likely bring some light snow accumulations across the higher terrain areas Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday, with a few wet flakes possibly also mixed in for lower elevation areas inland from the lakes but no accumulation. In terms of numbers, expect less than an inch across the higher spots in Wyoming, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties, with 1-2 inches for the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Expansive high pressure will then build across the area from the west later Wednesday and Wednesday night with dry weather then on tap for the remainder of the period...and beyond. Otherwise, daytime temps some 10-15 degrees below average will continue through Wednesday with highs mainly ranging through the 40s, with some upper 30s hanging in across the Tug Hill and western Dacks. Our day-to-day warming trend is then set to begin Thursday as highs trend closer to average with a range of 50s expected. Seasonably chilly nigheights will continue through the period with mainly upper 20s to low 30s across the higher terrain and North Country Tuesday and Wednesday night, while mid to upper 30s will be found across lower elevations. Expect to tack on a few to several degrees for our Thursday night lows. Long Term - Friday Through Monday The stout ridge associated with an Omega Block over the CONUS will center over the region during the period. At the same time, a surface high will also center over the region for most of the period as well. This will promote fair dry weather for the period. With the ridge and surface high in place, day-to-day warming will bring temperatures above normal for the entire period, with temperatures warming to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Monday afternoon. A trough and cold front approaching from the north on Sunday will at the very least will increase clouds from north to south. Current guidance keeps precipitation to the north of Lake Ontario and northern NY. Depending on if the expected synoptic setup changes, some of the showers could possibly track a bit farther south into portions of the forecast area. Marine Moderate northerlies found on the backside of an exiting area of low pressure will maintain Small Craft Advisories on Lake Ontario and the Lower Niagara River through this evening. While high pressure building south across the Upper Mississippi valley tonight into Tuesday will somewhat weaken the surface pressure graident over the region...the temporary lowering of wind speeds and corresponding waves will give way to freshening winds again later Tuesday and Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front. This will continue to support SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for Lake Ontario into Wednesday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ030- 045. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>044. |
Cities 
Tides 
This Coastal Forecast
Buffalo NY Radar
Northeast Radar