Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest 15 To 25 Knots. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Early, Then Showers Likely Late This Morning. A Chance Of Showers Early This Afternoon. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Morning, Then Rain Showers Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest And Increasing To 30 Knots. Showers. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Rain Showers During The Day. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Monday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Snow Showers Monday Night. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Tuesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Snow Showers During The Day. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 217am EDT Fri April 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes for this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today, but additional flooding is not expected. 2) Windy today. 3) A round of showers with embedded thunderstorms with the potenial for heavy rain and severe weather Saturday through Sunday morning. KEY MESSAGE 1...Risk of showers and a few thunderstorms today, but additional flooding is not expected. A warm front will lift across the region this morning with a weak cold front pushing through this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with both features today. Marginal instability will limit the threat of severe weather. Any addtional flooding concerns unlikely with basin average rainfall amounts generally under a quarter inch. KEY MESSAGE 2...Windy today. A strong low level jet of 55 to 65 knots will be overhead this morning. Stable temperature profiles will prevent the strongest winds aloft from mixing to the surface, but south/southeast winds may gust to 40-50 mph across the higher terrain and favored downslope areas this morning. The strongest gusts will be along the Lake Erie shoreline of Chautauqua county and within the Black River Valley east of Lake Ontario. The low level jet will weaken today, but better mixing will develop by mid day and this afternoon. This will allow for a period of stronger southwesterly gusts to 40-45 mph downwind of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3...A round of showers with embedded thunderstorms with the potenial for heavy rain and severe weather Saturday through Sunday morning. A cold front will move into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday. Ahead of the cold front the region will be within the warm sector. Some cloud cover may exist early in the day, but a gradual increase in low level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks will support weak diurnal instability. Favorable shear profiles will support the risk for severe thunderstorms, with the main threat being damaging winds and isolated hail. Precipitable water values near 1.25 inches will support the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Marine The passage of a warm front will bring elevated southerly winds early this morning, maintaining SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Elevated southwesterlies will follow from mid morning through this afternoon, continuing the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. The next period of concern will be Saturday night into Monday, as a cold front ushers in west winds of 20 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time period. Hydrology Several creeks and rivers remain in flood, including the Tonawanda Creek, Black Creek at Churchville, and the Black River. These slower responding waterways will remain in flood through today or into tonight. The Oatka Creek at Garbutt dropped below flood stage Thursday evening. Low pressure and its associated warm and cold fronts will bring additional moderate to possibly heavy showers and thunderstorms Saturday, and especially Saturday night. There will be a low risk for additional flooding due to our still nearly-saturated ground conditions. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 8am this morning to 5pm EDT this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ044-045. |
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