Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Southwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts. A Chance Of Showers Early, Then Showers Likely Late This Morning. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms This Afternoon. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Tonight...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West. A Chance Of Waterspouts. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight. Showers Likely Late. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Waterspouts In The Morning. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less Building To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms During The Day, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms Thursday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers During The Day. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 155am EDT Monday August 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes with this forecast update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. 2.) Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night and Wednesday. Key Message 1...Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday. Surface low pressure near far SW Quebec this early morning will slowly fill as it lifts northeastward today, while aloft a mid/upper level closed low will pass across our region. Two noted short-wave troughs, one near Lake Erie this morning, and a second near the eastern waters of Lake Ontario this afternoon will bring added lift to enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms. Under this upper level low, 850 hPa temperatures will lower to around +7C that with plenty of clouds around will leave temperatures through the afternoon in the 60s...or about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. This cool airmass will also generate a fair amount of lake enhanced rain showers as well as diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms. Initial showers and thunderstorms this morning near Lake Erie and far WNY will diminish through the mid morning hours. As daytime instability increases showers and a few thunderstorms will increase inland, in addition to periodic lake enhanced batches of showers arriving near the lake shores off the Lakes. This secondary shortwave will enhance the coverage area of convection this afternoon towards the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Tonight, while inland convection will begin to wane, the still cool cyclonic flow over the warm lake waters will continue to generate periodic showers off the warm lake waters. Deeper moisture will be found over Lake Ontario, and will place higher PoPs, and greater amount of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast here tonight for continued lake effect rain showers, while scattered and lighter rain showers will be found off Lake Erie. On a WNW flow Tuesday rain showers will begin to taper off south and southeast of first Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario as deeper moisture wanes. A few afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm near the exiting upper level low will remain east of Lake Ontario. Key Message 2...Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night and Wednesday. By Tuesday night a mid level shortwave ridge will replace the recently departed upper level low, with a surface ridge of high pressure expanding northeastward across our region from the Ohio Valley. This will bring clearing skies Tuesday night, with some valley fog across the Southern Tier/Black River Valley. The surface high pressure will crest over our region Wednesday, and with a light southeasterly flow afternoon temperatures will return back to normal under a mix of sunshine a fair weather cumulus. Marine A cool upper level low passing across the eastern Great Lakes region today will continue a southwesterly flow of 15 to 25 knots over the Lakes that will bring continued small craft advisory conditions to the Lakes. Behind a surface trough winds will veer to more westerly tonight with waters remaining choppy, but diminishing through the night. This flow will veer slightly further Tuesday with a WNY flow Tuesday morning beginning to diminish in the afternoon with the exiting upper level low, and the approach of a surface high pressure. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect. Lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms may produce waterspouts through Tuesday, amidst sizable lake-induced instability as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around an upper-level low crosses the warm lakes. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ010-019- 085. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for LOZ042>045. |
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