Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Waves 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Saturday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sunday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers Overnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Showers Likely. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Tuesday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming West. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers Wednesday Night. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 810pm EDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Breezy conditions continue this afternoon with some showers and thunderstorms possible south of Lake Ontario. 2) A few more spotty showers possible this weekend, but most of the time will be rain free. 3) There is an increasing potential for widespread rain and a few thunderstorms across the region from Sunday night through Monday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy conditions continue this afternoon with some showers and thunderstorms possible south of Lake Ontario. Unseasonably deep low pressure will continue to move east across New Brunswick into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence through tonight. This system will continue to support gusty winds this afternoon, though not as strong as yesterday. Diurnal mixing will support downward momentum transfer of the 25-35 knots available near the top of the mixed boundary layer, with surface wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range in most areas and up to 35 mph east and southeast of Lake Ontario through late afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening with the loss of diurnal mixing. Cool air aloft and residual low level moisture will allow scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The best coverage of rain will likely be along a lake breeze driven convergence zone from the Niagara Peninsula and northern portion of the Buffalo Metro area extending east along the NYS Thruway to near Rochester and into the western Finger Lakes. A few showers will also cross the western Southern Tier and the North Country. KEY MESSAGE 2...A few more spotty showers possible this weekend, but most of the time will be rain free. Most of the showers will end this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. A few showers will persist east of Lake Ontario overnight as moist cyclonic flow continues. The best chance of measurable rain overnight will be across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks with an added boost of upslope flow. Saturday will be drier than today, but a few scattered showers and isolated thunder will continue east of Lake Ontario especially across the western Adirondacks as moist northwest upslope flow continues. A few spotty showers may also develop across the western Southern Tier, with mainly dry weather prevailing elsewhere. Sunday will be similar, with a few more showers and isolated thunder across the North Country, and a few spotty showers across the higher terrain inland from the lakes across Western and Central NY. KEY MESSAGE 3...There is an increasing potential for widespread rain and a few thunderstorms across the region from Sunday night through Monday. A shortwave trough is expected to eject out of the central Rockies Sunday. Deep southerly flow across the southern Plains will interact with a developing area of low pressure. There is uncertainty in the track of the low as it moves east, but ensemble mean MSLP shows the low deepening as it moves into the Ohio Valley, then weaken as it moves into southern New England. This system has the potential to bring widespread rain and a few thunderstorms to western and north-central NY Sunday night through Monday. The chance for precipitation ranges from medium (50-70%) across the northern tier of the forecast area and high (70-90%) across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. The amount of rain received will depend on the track of the low. At this time, the ensemble mean MSLP track is moving the low near the NY/PA border, which keeps the heavy rain and flood threat low for our area. Any northward trend may increase the chances for heavy rain across the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region. There could also be a few strong thunderstorms Monday, but that will depend on the track of the low and if we get into the warm sector. Marine Low pressure will continue to move slowly east across the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday. Moderate westerlies in the wake of this system will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory criteria winds and waves on Lake Erie through this evening, western Lake Ontario through tonight, and the east half of Lake Ontario through Saturday. Light winds will finally return Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes over the lower Great Lakes. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8am EDT Saturday for NYZ001-002. Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for NYZ003>007. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045. |
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