Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ064 Forecast Issued: 1029 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

This Afternoon...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Tonight...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Friday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West And Increasing To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 5 To 8 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet.
Friday Night...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming Northwest. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet.
Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers Saturday Night. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Sunday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming East. A Chance Of Rain Showers Monday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
225pm EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
Ridge of high pressure will continue to build east into the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon and linger across the area through Saturday morning, supporting a couple of days of cool, dry weather. Low pressure will then move across the southern Great Lakes late Saturday through early Sunday, supporting a chance of some rain and wet snow.

Near Term - Through Friday Night
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depict clouds skies prevailing across the eastern portions of the area due to low pressure impacting New England. Meanwhile to the west, diurnal cumulus have been sprouting early this afternoon across the areas inland from the lake shadows of Western New York and the northern Genesee Valley. Outside of the cloud cover, high pressure centered over northern portions of the Ontario Canandian province is spanning across the central and eastern Great Lakes, supporting quiet weather to prevail. Temperatures today will remain near average today with highs in the mid to upper 40s across the lower elevations and low 40s across the higher terrain.

Tonight, cloud cover will persist across the eastern Lake Ontario region due to the aforementioned low impacting New England. Western New York however will see some of the cloud cover diminish overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s across the vast majority of the area, the one exception will be a few mid 20s for the typical cooler spots in the Southern Tier.

Dry weather will prevail Friday and Friday night due to the entrance of a mid-level ridge pushing east acros the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be quite similar to today with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s across the higher terrain and low to mid 40s elsewhere, along with lows ranging in the upper 20s to low 30s. Additionally, should note that Friday will feature a breezy west to northwest wind.

Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
Showery conditions for the middle portion of the weekend/short term forecast period. A weakening shortwave trough and surface low will track across the region Saturday afternoon causing showers to move into the area, mainly south of Lake Ontario. As the batch of showers tracks into the area, weakening of the surface low and trough with eastward progression will start to result in decreasing density of the shower coverage over the region. Whats left with this batch of showers will track southeast away from the forecast area later Saturday evening. A second shortwave trough will track west to east just north of Lake Ontario Saturday night. Showers will increase some from the northwest to the southeast, especially for the north country where the trough will be closest to. Showers over the eastern portions of the forecast area should be minimal. This will be in part due to moisture with this next shortwave will be on the lower side with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) generally around a third of an inch and the trough will be in more of a weakening stage during this time. Rainfall amounts should range from a few hundredths of an inch near the south shore of Lake Ontario to around a tenth of an inch near the NY/PA border. Temperatures should be just cool enough for rain showers to mix with or change to snow for Saturday night, mainly across the higher terrain.

Temperatures for the period should be near to a few degrees above normal.

Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
On Monday an elongated and increasingly positively-tilted upper level trough will extend from the Rockies across the northern Great Plains...with lee-side surface cyclogenesis supporting the continued development of a broad surface low over the central and southern Plains states. Northeast of this low...a tight low-level baroclinic zone will extend eastward across the Ohio Valley...with one or more weak disturbances rippling east along this feature and possibly bringing the chance of a few light showers to western New York. With continued poor model agreement in the positioning of the frontal zone and consequently the track of any disturbances riding eastward along it...have elected to keep Probability of Precipitation for Monday confined to the low chance range for now. Otherwise Monday looks to offer a milder than normal start to the month of April...with highs mostly ranging through the 50s.

After that the above mentioned upper trough will get sheared apart...with the bulk of its energy ejecting northeastward across the Plains states into the Great Lakes and Northeast...where this looks to engage in a complex interaction with northern stream energy dropping southeastward from Canada during the middle and latter portions of the week. The corresponding surface low will continue to develop and track northeastward toward our area Monday night and Tuesday...then will pass somewhere across our region between Tuesday night and Wednesday...before redeveloping off the New England coastline Thursday. This would result in a likelihood of fairly widespread precipitation developing across our area between later Monday night and Tuesday...then lingering through Wednesday before gradually tapering off thereafter.

As has been the case so far with this system...the various guidance packages continue to exhibit differences in how the two supporting streams of energy may interact...which then leads to differences in the overall strength and track of the low and consequently what precipitation types we might ultimately expect and when. A current model consensus suggests that temps should remain warm enough to support primarily rain through at least the first part of Tuesday night...with a little snow then possibly mixing in across the higher terrain later on in the night. More rain and possible higher elevation wet snow then looks to follow for Wednesday...before colder air wrapping in behind the system potentially brings about a more general accumulating wet snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile temperatures should gradually cool through the period...with slightly above average highs on Tuesday giving way to somewhat below average readings for both Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
West winds have backed to the southwest this afternoon. Winds will become northwest tonight through Friday. Winds will be strong enough to produce some chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, but winds and waves will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight.

A period of stronger WNW winds will develop on Lake Ontario Friday through Friday night, with solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on the central and eastern portion of Lake Ontario.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...None.

Marine
None.

markerCities        markerTides        marker This Coastal Forecast
NEARBY TIDES: