Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South. A Chance Of Showers Late. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Waves Building To 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Monday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Tuesday...West Winds 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Showers. Waves Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet.|
|Wednesday...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221pm EDT Sat May 8 2021
Scattered showers will end this evening as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Partial clearing will allow for chilly temperatures tonight with some frost across Western NY. Low pressure will then pass to the south of the region Sunday afternoon and Sunday night producing more rain, with the greatest rainfall amounts across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Mainly dry weather will return Monday, but temperatures will remain cool through early next week.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
Radar imagery showing a narrow area of steady rain over Lewis and far eastern Jefferson County this afternoon. This band of rain is being supported by a band of frontogenesis and moisture convergence on the eastern flank of a weakening mid level trough. The frontal zone and associated forcing will finally break down later this afternoon, allowing the steady rain to taper off to scattered showers. Farther west, the combination of the passing mid level trough, steep lapse rates, and diurnal heating will continue to produce scattered showers through late afternoon across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. There could even be some very small hail in the heavier showers given the cold air aloft. Stable lake shadows will initially keep the Niagara Frontier and Rochester mainly dry. A few scattered showers across nearby southern Ontario may be able to reach the Niagara Frontier this evening as the stable lake shadows begin to break down.
The scattered showers will gradually taper off and end later this evening. A weak bubble of high pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes overnight, allowing for a brief window of partial clearing and light winds. Mid/high clouds will then start to overspread the area from southwest to northeast by late tonight or early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas, with some lower 30s across the cooler Southern Tier Valleys. This will yield the potential for frost across Western NY overnight if skies stay clear enough, long enough. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for much of Western NY where the program has started. From Rochester eastward, the cloud cover will last a little longer and there will be a little more breeze, reducing the risk of frost. Some patchy fog will also develop tonight, primarily across the eastern Lake Ontario region and in the river valleys of the western Southern Tier.
Sunday will start dry with weak high pressure drifting east across the area. A mid level trough surface low will then move into the Ohio Valley in the afternoon, before moving off the Southern New England coast by late Sunday night. A broad swath of warm advection and moisture transport to the north of the low track will be supported by DPVA ahead of the approaching mid level trough and upper level jet dynamics, yielding a large shield of rain to the north of the low track. The NAM and high-res WRF windows are faster and farther north compared to other guidance. Preference lies with a GFS/ECMWF/GEM blend for timing and placement of rain potential for Sunday and Sunday night.
Rain will reach the western Southern Tier by late morning or midday, then spread north and east, reaching Buffalo, Rochester, and the Finger Lakes by mid to late afternoon. The steadiest, more soaking rain will be found across the Southern Tier and possibly the Finger Lakes in closer proximity to the strongest forcing and moisture convergence. Farther north, expect light rain amounts along and north of the NY Thruway. Rain will continue through the first half of Sunday night before tapering off from west to east overnight.
Short Term - Monday Through Monday Night
Surface low departs to our east off Long Island Monday, but there still may be some lingering showers across our far eastern counties through mid morning. Should be a mainly dry day for most locations but cool, highs in the 50s. Clouds thin out a bit Monday night, might be some isolated pockets of frost if cloud cover thins enough and winds go light. Right now, west to northwest winds appear to remain a bit too elevated overnight for this too happen. Will have to keep a close watch on this, and best to be safe keep sensitive plants protected.
Tuesday, a mid-level low drops southeast across the Lower Lakes. Moisture from this feature and steepening lapse rates as the core of the coldest air aloft swings in will bring about a fair amount of cloud cover and showers to the region. Might even be some graupel with any of the heavier showers, again something to keep an eye on. Highs Tuesday will be chilly and well below normal with upper 40s to low 50s. Tuesday night, with the loss of daytime heating and gradual warming mid-levels, any left over showers will then diminish shortly after sunset. Lows anticipated in the 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Behind the upper level low Wednesday and Thursday it will begin to trend drier as surface high pressure nears and then builds into our region. Beyond Thursday, the operational GFS looks too fast and strong with the advancement of the next next upper level disturbance, have opted for the drier solutions of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian. With increasing sunshine, temperatures will "likely" warm into the low to mid 60s or very close to normal towards the tail end of the week. Chances for precipitation then again increase over the weekend but low confidence at this point.
Southwest winds will continue to increase this afternoon with speeds and associated wave heigheights potentially briefly reaching Small Craft criteria this afternoon and evening on Lake Erie and the Buffalo Harbor. West winds will also increase on Lake Ontario later this afternoon through tonight, producing choppy conditions that are expected to remain a little below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Lighter winds and limited wave action is then expected Sunday into at least the first half of next week.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am EDT Sunday for NYZ001-002-010>013-019-085.
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for LEZ020.