Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...North Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Snow Likely Early. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet, Then Subsiding To 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Monday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Northwest And Diminishing To Less Than 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Monday Night...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots Overnight. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Increasing To 30 Knots. Snow Showers Likely In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 6 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Southwest. Snow And Rain Showers In The Evening, Then Rain And Snow Overnight. Waves 5 To 9 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 11 Feet. |
| Wednesday...South Winds To 30 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain And Snow. Waves 4 To 7 Feet Building To 6 To 10 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 13 Feet. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 15 To 25 Knots. Snow Showers Likely. Waves 5 To 8 Feet Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 10 Feet. |
| Friday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Snow Showers Likely. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642pm EST Sunday Dec 7 2025 Synopsis Snowfall will taper off tonight as the low departs off towards New England, with just some lingering lake effect snow showers. Colder air wrapping in behind this system will make for a rather frigid but mostly dry start to the workweek. Increasing temps will accompany increasing winds and chances for snow and rain at times Tuesday into Wednesday. Unsettled weather lingers Thursday through the end of the week with persistent chances for snow, particularly east of the lakes. Near Term - Through Monday Night Synoptic snows east of Lake Ontario will taper off this evening with the low departing off towards New England. After that...some lake enhanced snows will linger for a bit, mainly focused southeast of the lakes as wind veer to the NW late this evening and tonight. Even so...not expected any real meaningful accumulations (2" or less) once winds become northwest. We should see a weakening lake response the rest of this evening as BUFKIT sounding profiles show moisture depleting fairly quickly as drier air works into the region. That said...where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued (Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego) we should also begin to see improving conditions as we head into the latter half of this evening. Otherwise...expect some passing snow showers at times with minor accumulations, 1" or less for most locales. Expansive surface high pressure building squarely over the Great Lakes ahead of a mid-level ridge will bring mainly dry weather to the forecast area Monday and Monday night. There may be a spot snow shower near the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline Monday night as the flow becomes southwesterly with the passing ridge. Otherwise, it will be a cold start to the new workweek as 850H temps plummet to either side of -17C behind the cold front. This will translate to surface high temps in the teens and low 20s Monday with single digit lows in most areas Monday night. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night Tuesday and Tuesday evening high pressure will slide off the Atlantic coastline...while a compact but vigorous shortwave trough makes its way from the Upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec while also shearing out over time. At the surface...its corresponding modest surface low will also slowly weaken as it follows along a similar path...though at the same time will still manage to push its attendant warm front northeastward across our area. Isentropic upglide/DCVA out ahead of these features along with low level convergence at the nose of an associated 50-55 knot low level jet coupled with increasing moisture to produce scattered to numerous snow showers across the area between late Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening...with these lasting roughly 6-9 hours at any given location...and possibly ending with a little lake enhancement northeast of the lakes. Pcpn chances still appear to be highest near the Canadian border and lowest across interior portions of the Finger Lakes...with accums from the snow showers generally on the order of 1-2"...save for locally higher amounts of up to around 3" across the Tug Hill...and lower amounts of under an inch across the interior of the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise the warm advection pattern will result in high temps climbing back into the lower to mid 30s for the most part on Tuesday...though it will feel colder owing to an increasing south to southwesterly wind that will gust to 25-35 mph at times...with the highest gusts found from the Lake Erie shoreline northeastward across Niagara and northern Erie counties. This being said...the warm advection regime should help prevent the much higher winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The snow showers from this first system will barely have a chance to exit our area Tuesday night...before more widespread precipitation associated with the next (and notably stronger) surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and Wednesday. With this package...the guidance suite continues to slowly converge on the idea of taking a nearly steady-state to slowly deepening low either over or just north of Lake Ontario between Wednesday and Wednesday evening...with its trailing cold front crossing the area Wednesday evening. Provided such a track actually verifies...this would result in widespread light to moderate snow overspreading the area later Tuesday night...with steady warm air advection then forcing a changeover to mainly rain across the lower elevations and a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain late Tuesday night and Wednesday... with the latter then changing back to all snow following the passage of the trailing cold front Wednesday night. While this scenario would result in only some minor accumulations at the lower elevations...it would be supportive of a longer period of accumulating (and potentially headline-worthy) snow across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill/western Adirondack foothills...with the greatest accumulations most likely across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. With this in mind...we'll be adding a mention of this potential to the Hazardous Weather Outlook with this package. Also on Wednesday...yet another 50-55 knot low level jet will cross areas south of Lake Ontario in advance of the surface low/trailing cold front...though with widespread precipitation and steady warm advection in place thermal profiles again don't look favorable for fully mixing these stronger winds from aloft down to the surface. This being said...gusts to 30-40 mph still appear to be a reasonable bet at this point...with these again strongest closer to Lake Erie and across portions of the Niagara Frontier. Fortunately...the stronger winds aloft look to depart prior to the arrival of the trailing cold front...which would greatly limit the risk for any stronger winds in its wake. Following the passage of the cold front...a westerly to west- northwesterly flow of colder air will then overspread our region Wednesday night...with consensus 850 mb temps dropping to -10C to -12C by Thursday morning. This will allow for some areas of lake effect snow to develop east and east-southeast of the lakes...though a period of mid-level drying in the wake of the low/cold front may help to keep these at least somewhat limited in scope initially. Elsewhere...the synoptic precipitation should diminish to some leftover scattered snow showers. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday In the longer term portion of the forecast...longwave troughing will deepen across the eastern two-thirds of North America Thursday through Friday night...then will remain in place through next weekend as additional shortwave impulses circulate through and enhance the mean larger-scale trough. During this time there will also be the potential for at least a couple of clipper-type systems to cross our region in association with the above-mentioned shortwave impulses...though timing and placing these features remains rather difficult this far out in advance...with plenty of variability noted in the track and timing of these features in the guidance over the past few days. Given the overall pattern...what is much more certain is that 850 mb temperatures will average between -10C and -15C throughout this period...thereby ensuring below normal temperatures and providing an environment thermally conducive for areas of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes. This being said...uncertainty in the evolution of the main low-level synoptic features and consequently the low level wind field precludes trying to pin down the location of these at this time range. Outside of any lake snows it will generally be dry...save for any snow showers/snow that might accompany the passage of the aforementioned clipper systems. Marine Low pressure will depart off towards New England tonight with winds veering to the northwest. Small Craft Advisories are in effect as outlined below. High pressure will build across the lakes Monday, then shift southeast of the lakes Monday night. This will cause winds and subsequent wave heigheights to diminish before turning offshore. The offshore flow will increase and begin to turn southwesterly as another weak system moves east of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday, which will then be followed by a more potent area of low pressure and LLJ further south on Wednesday. This may bring low-end gales to Lake Erie, with Wednesday being the more favorable setup between the two days. Westerly winds will subside below gales later Wednesday night into Thursday, though remain elevated through the end of the week. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for NYZ006>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 3am EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EST Monday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Monday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 3am EST Monday for LOZ045. |
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