Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers Early This Afternoon. Rain And Snow Showers Likely Late. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northwest. Rain Showers Likely Early, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers Late In The Evening. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Wednesday...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming East. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Rain During The Day, Then Rain Likely Thursday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet. |
| Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming South And Increasing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Rain Showers During The Day, Then Rain Showers Likely Friday Night. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet. |
| Saturday...South Winds 15 To 25 Knots Becoming West. Rain Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet Building To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 9 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 519am EST Tuesday Mar 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light freezing rain is expected across the Southern Tier today, with some snow across the Tug Hill Plateau, and just light rain elsewhere. 2) A series of warmer systems will bring periods of rain and possibly some hydrological concerns later this week...with some limited freezing rain also possible Thursday and Thursday night. 3) Springlike warmth will move into the region this week and likely continue into next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Light freezing rain is expected across the Southern Tier today, with wet snow across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, and just light rain elsewhere. A passing weak mid level shortwave will support the development and rapid eastward progression of a frontal wave along an east-west baroclinic zone stretched from the Ohio Valley to southern New England. Warm advection and moisture transport will spread northeast across the area today in advance of the weak wave, with light precipitation overspreading Western and Central NY from southwest to northeast. The precipitation will reach maximum coverage later this afternoon before quickly tapering off and ending from west to east tonight as the wave of low pressure moves quickly off the New England coast. Precipitation type will be mainly rain on the lake plains with a midday to afternoon arrival time allowing for the boundary layer to warm above freezing. A period of light freezing rain is likely across the Southern Tier this morning through the midday hours where colder surface temperatures will linger. Ice accumulations will be light, less than a tenth of an inch. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the western Southern Tier. Marginally cold surface temperatures combined with the high March sun angle will likely keep any road impacts very minor and spotty even where freezing rain materializes. Temperatures aloft will remain a few degrees colder across the North Country, supporting a rain/snow mix today into this evening. The higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks should remain cold enough for all snow, with accumulations of 1-2 inches across higher terrain. The precipitation will quickly end from west to east tonight. Forecast soundings show a shallow layer of low level moisture will be left behind in the very weak boundary layer flow in the wake of the system. A steepening low level inversion may support the development of fog and low stratus overnight across much of the region, with the fog lasting through Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of warmer systems will bring periods of rain and possibly some hydrological concerns later this week...with some limited freezing rain also possible Thursday and Thursday night. The large-scale pattern will across North America will gradually amplify as we push through the middle and latter portions of the week...with a zonal flow on Wednesday giving way to developing western troughing and downstream eastern height rises/building ridging by late in the week. This change will be driven by a series of shortwave troughs and attendant surface waves rippling eastward...then eventually more northeastward through the larger- scale mean flow as the pattern amplifies. Following the passage of the initial weak system today and tonight (see Key Message 1 above)...a passing surface ridge should bring us a dry Wednesday...before departing off to our east Wednesday night. At the same time...additional shortwave energy will ripple along the frontal boundary deposited across the Ohio Valley by today's system...causing it to slowly lift back northward as a warm front Wednesday night through Thursday night...with the main shortwave trough/attendant surface low eventually passing over or just south of our region Thursday night. As a result...we can expect our next round of widespread precipitation Thursday and Thursday night. While thermal profiles continue to suggest that the atmospheric column will be warm enough to support predominantly plain rain with this next system...there may be a couple of exceptions to this. The first (and less likely scenario) may come along and a bit inland from the south shore of Lake Ontario Thursday morning...where an ENE low-level flow could result in surface temps cold enough to support a brief period of freezing rain at the onset. This being said...the latest guidance also continues to slow down the arrival of the pcpn...which could act to greatly limit this potential/any impacts on roads and walkways given the steepening early March sun angle. The other possible (and more likely) area of concern will lie across the Saint Lawrence Valley/and immediately adjoining portions of Jefferson county Thursday night...where the cold NE flow up the Saint Lawrence Valley and nocturnal time frame may support a better potential for some freezing rain/light icing. In comparison to today's weaker surface wave...the systems affecting our region from Thursday onward through the weekend appear to have the potential to deliver more substantial basin-average rainfall amounts over time...with a multimodel consensus still supporting the idea of a general 1-2" of rain falling across our region from Thursday through the weekend. Highly localized higher amounts of 2- 3" are also not out of the question...with this risk greater if a few thunderstorms can develop. With respect to the latter...a couple of these cannot be ruled out across the Southern Tier Thursday night...and then in a more general sense Saturday/Saturday night in association with a passing cold front. Coupled with progressively warmer temperatures driving increasing runoff from snowmelt (particularly east of Lake Ontario where the snowpack is deeper and SWE's higher)...this rainfall will result in rising levels on area waterways later on this week and weekend. While MMEFS river forecasts continue to suggest that there should be little concern through Thursday...by Friday a number of waterways north of the southern Tier are projected to at least reach action stage...with a few potentially reaching or exceeding minor flood stage. The best chances for the latter appear to lie within the Black River basin where the combination of potential rainfall and runoff from snowmelt will be greatest...though a few of the Buffalo and Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes creeks will also need to be watched. The elevated flows will then likely continue into the first part of next week on some of our slower responding waterways (most notably the Black River and Tonawanda Creek). The ongoing warmup and rainfall/snowmelt will also induce the breakup and movement of ice where it still exists on area waterways...thereby leading to the risk for a few ice jams as well. KEY MESSAGE 3... Springlike warmth will move into the region this week and likely continue into next week. The ongoing pattern change will also act to pump increasingly warmer air across our region right through the start of the upcoming weekend...with increasing chances of temperatures climbing to springlike levels by Friday and especially Saturday as the main surface low track shifts progressively further northwestward. This particularly appears to be the case south of Lake Ontario on Saturday...where widespread high temps in the 60s (and possibly some readings in the 70s) are appearing increasingly likely. It should be noted that while the potential passage of a cold front may then help to knock readings back somewhat for Sunday...the overall pattern of a trough in the west/ridge in the east looks to persist through the first half of next week...thereby strongly favoring continued well above normal temperatures as highlighted in CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Marine Elevated south winds will continue to produce choppy conditions across the northeast end of Lake Ontario today before winds diminish tonight. Low pressure will pass just south of the lower Great Lakes Thursday through early Friday. East to northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario as this system passes by, with a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for NYZ019>021. Marine None. |
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