Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast






10 - 15


5 - 10

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ064 Forecast Issued: 455 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today...West Gales To 40 Knots Diminishing To 35 Knots. Rain Showers This Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers This Afternoon. Waves 15 To 20 Feet Subsiding To 13 To 17 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 26 Feet.
Tonight...West Gales To 35 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 25 Knots. A Chance Of Showers Late. Waves 11 To 15 Feet Subsiding To 4 To 7 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 19 Feet.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Showers. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Showers Likely In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Feet.
Monday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet, Then Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Wednesday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South. Showers Likely During The Day, Then Showers Wednesday Night. Waves 2 To 4 Feet Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
753am EDT Sat April 13 2024

Windy and raw conditions will continue today as deep low pressure continues to progress northward through Quebec. Rain and wet snow shower activity will slowly taper off from west to east through the day, with some additional slushy accumulations possible across the highest terrain. High pressure crosses the area tonight bringing a brief period of dry weather and lighter winds. Warmer temperatures then return ahead of a compact Clipper system that crosses the area on Sunday bringing another round of showers and a few thunderstorms, before high pressure returns bringing a mainly dry start to the new work week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Rain and higher elevation wet snow ongoing with upper level low just to our northeast and secondary surface cold front crossing the region. Colder air continues to work in and we have seen some wet snow across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier, and recently across the Tug Hill, however it's having a difficult time sticking. Looking at area webcams, the most observed on the ground is about a patchy inch or so on the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. With this in well as not having received any snow spotter reports and the strong April sun on the rise, have decided to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory early. An additional slushy inch or so will be possible through mid to late morning across the highest hilltops of the Southern Tier and top of the Tug Hill.

Otherwise, large storm system that has produced all of the active weather the past few days will finally pull north through Quebec today. This will allow rain and wet snow shower activity to slowly taper off from west to east through the day. An additional light slushy accumulation will be possible across the highest terrain, mainly through midday before strong mid April diurnal effects force a changeover to rain or just make it nearly impossible for snow to accumulate. The other main story will continue to be the winds with gusts to near 50 mph through midday or so across western NY, but lasting into the afternoon hours from the Finger Lakes east to Oswego County. A Wind Advisory remains in place until 2pm for the Finger Lakes west and until 5pm for N. Cayuga and Oswego counties. These conditions will make for a cold and raw day with highs ranging from the upper 30s on the hilltops to the mid an upper 40s elsewhere.

Transient high pressure will cross the region tonight bringing a brief period of mainly dry weather, while also finally allowing winds to relax some. Lows will mainly range through the 30s.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
On Sunday, a weakening 40kt LLJ will nose into the eastern Great Lakes across the Ohio Valley, as a stronger 100kt upper-level jet drives a northern stream shortwave trough southeast across the upper Great Lakes. The confluence of these two features will cause Q- vector convergence out ahead of this shortwave trough, resulting in broad surface cyclogenesis and a low that will quickly drop through the region. The low's attendant warm front will lift into the region through the day, before being quickly shunted southward as a cold front later Sunday evening. Another round of widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany this clipper system Sunday. Rain showers should first spread inland from Lake Ontario Sunday morning, then push southward as the low crosses the region through Sunday afternoon. While some weak elevated instability could bring an isolated rumble of thunder to WNY Sunday morning, daytime heating in the warm sector Sunday afternoon will cause MLCAPE values to increase to around 300-600J/kg across the Southern Tier, with the higher end values being found near (and especially south of) the NY/PA line. Thus, this is when and where the highest chances for thunderstorms are expected Sunday. 0-6km bulk shear values between 40-50kts could support a few stronger/better organized storms in this area as well, though as alluded to earlier, the greatest instability is expected to remain south of our area across PA. Rainfall amounts have trended a bit higher with this latest guidance but are still expected to average between 0.25"-0.5" in most areas. Thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours will result in isolated higher totals.

The presence of the frontal boundary over the region Sunday will result in a fairly large north to south spread in high temperatures. Highs up in the North Country will be mainly in the 40s, possibly the low 50s across the lower terrain areas, while highs in the upper 60s are expected to the south near the NY/PA border. Temperatures will average in the 50s in between.

As the system exits the region early Sunday night, it will become increasingly sheared apart and wash out to the southeast. Shower/thunderstorm chances will quickly taper off from north to south across the region with areawide dry weather expected for the second half of the night. Clouds will likely linger for much of the region, especially over the higher terrain of the North Country and Southern Tier. Temps will bottom out in the low 40s south of Lake Ontario overnight, with upper 30s east of the lake.

Mostly dry weather will continue through Monday night as weak surface high pressure builds into the forecast area from the upper Great Lakes. There could be a few showers across northern Jefferson/Lewis counties Monday as weak shortwave energy embedded within a large scale trough over Quebec approaches the area. Otherwise, highs Monday should average in the 50s, with lows Monday night in the low 40s to upper 30s.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
The medium range guidance packages continue to favor a slower track with the large cutter-type low forecast to shift northeastward from the central Plains in the Tuesday-Wednesday period, with the latest consensus suggesting that this system will reach the Upper Great Lakes by later Wednesday afternoon and evening. Owing to this slower progression, Tuesday is expected to remain dry. Better chances for some showers should then overspread the area from west to east Tuesday night and especially Wednesday as this system pushes one or more warm frontal segments across our region, with some limited instability potentially also allowing for a few thunderstorms across portions of the area south of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon. Have continued to undercut NBM Probability of Precipitation a bit here as there remains a good deal of uncertainty in the timing of expected breaks in the precipitation between the warm frontal segments and the system's primary cold front.

After that time disagreement amongst the medium range packages increases rather sharply for the Thursday-Friday period...resulting in a correspondingly sharp increase in overall forecast uncertainty and decrease in forecast confidence. In general the initial cutter low should lift by to our north and weaken...though the guidance disagrees on the path of the low and how quickly all this occurs... as well as on the degree/location/timing of any secondary cyclogenesis that takes place along its trailing cold front. As a result the guidance envelope suggests a cold frontal timing for our area that ranges anywhere from later Wednesday night/Thursday morning on the fast end to Friday on the slow end...a difference of 24-36 hours. Given this degree of uncertainty...will need to keep precipitation chances in place Thursday afternoon through Friday...while also keeping these confined to the chance range.

With respect to temperatures, highs on Tuesday should average on the warm side in the low to mid 60s as surface high pressure slides to our east and causes a general southeasterly flow to develop. Warm advection associated with the low will then help to pump readings up to unseasonably warm levels in the mid 60s to low 70s on Wednesday. After that time a general downward trend in temps is expected through the end of the work week...though the speed of this will be heavily dependent upon the timing of the cold front/secondary surface low. At this juncture, high temperatures are expected to fall back into the 50s and upper 40s by Friday.

The second of two cold fronts will currently crossing the region with a wind shift to the west behind the boundary.

Gale force winds continue on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Gale Warnings are in effect for all of Lakes Erie and Ontario with high end Small Craft Advisories for the Upper and Lower Niagara River. Gale Warning on Lake Erie expires late this morning, while Gale Warnings on western Lake Ontario expire this afternoon and late this evening for eastern Lake Ontario. These will be replaced by Small Craft Advisories that will last until winds come down from west to east through this evening and tonight.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NY...Wind Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for NYZ001>004- 010>014-019>021-085. Wind Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for NYZ005-006.

Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Sunday for LEZ020. Gale Warning until 11am EDT this morning for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 2pm EDT this afternoon for LOZ042-062. Gale Warning until 11pm EDT this evening for LOZ043>045- 063>065.

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