Marine Weather Net

Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast




5 - 10




5 - 15

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
LOZ064 Forecast Issued: 431 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Tonight...West Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southwest. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Sunday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Monday...Southwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Monday Night...Southwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.
Tuesday...Southwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Building To 2 To 4 Feet, Then Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet.
Wednesday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northwest. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms During The Day. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.
Thursday...Northwest Winds 5 To 15 Knots Becoming North. Waves 1 To 3 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
740pm EDT Sat July 13 2024

Surface high pressure will ridge across the region through Sunday, resulting in mostly dry and fair weather during the weekend. Additionally, expect warm and moderately humid weather with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. Active weather will return Sunday night with a risk of showers and thunderstorms lasting through Wednesday as a series of weak disturbances moves through.

Near Term - Through Sunday
A broad area of high pressure will ridge across the region, resulting in mainly rain free weather through Sunday. Clear skies tonight will result in good radiational cooling underneath the surface high, with lows in the 60s and patchy fog possible in the Western Southern Tier river valleys.

A mid-level trough will approach from the west late in the day Sunday, possibly sparking a few showers or thunderstorms across far Western NY just before sunset. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday Night
Sunday night a few storms will diminish across the region with the loss of daytime heating. Later in the night there will be the threat of a decaying MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) tracking from MI and across Lake Erie and SW NYS, one that could bring additional showers and thunderstorms late, and into the early Monday morning hours.

Monday and Tuesday will feature the threat of storms. Depending upon the track of the Sunday night MCS, and how much clouds start the day across our region Monday which will influence daytime instability there should still be enough instability, and developing lake breeze boundaries to bring scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and deep into the evening hours. Tuesday will be influenced by a prefrontal trough that will provide lift for additional storms through our region, as well as maintain storms into the evening and overnight hours. Both days will feature a decent wind flow aloft in the lower levels, as well as increasing CAPE of several thousand J/KG to support strong storms.

Monday and Tuesday will be very warm and sticky with temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90F. Nigheights will be warm and muggy, with overnight lows in the lower 70s across the Lake Plain/Finger Lakes, and mid/upper 60s across inland higher terrain. Tuesday night behind multiple rounds of convection will have slightly lower temperatures...with most areas dropping into the 60s.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
On Wednesday the surface cold front will either make or complete its passage across our area...with the medium range guidance packages still exhibiting some differences in timing. The exact timing of the front will be key to determining how much severe potential will exist during Wednesday...with a slower passage allowing for more time for daytime destabilization and therefore a greater risk for a few stronger to severe storms...with this greatest along our southeastern periphery. In contrast...a faster passage would likely preclude much in the way of destabilization and consequently severe risk. Given the uncertainty...for now have maintained a mix of chance to low-end likely Probability of Precipitation during Wednesday. As for temps...highs on Wednesday should generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

By Wednesday evening the main cold front should be well south and east of our area...with a weaker secondary cold front then potentially crossing our area later Wednesday night and Thursday. Cannot completely rule out another couple showers with this second boundary as it crosses our region...however given the time frame and limited accompanying moisture will keep Probability of Precipitation below the slight chance threshold for now. Otherwise sprawling Canadian high pressure will gradually extend eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the rest of this period and bring a return to cooler and more comfortable weather. Expect surface dewpoints to fall into the 50s later Wednesday and remain there through Saturday...while highs pull back to the lower to mid 70s Thursday...then only gradually climb back to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Saturday.

High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great Lakes this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions with light winds and limited waves. A generally weak pressure gradient will result in quiet conditions through Monday night, then winds will pick up a bit on Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure.

NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories


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