Lake Ontario - Open Waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming West. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southwest. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South. Waves 2 Feet Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
926pm EDT Thu September 28 2023
A weak upper level low will pass just south of our area tonight through Friday bringing a few scattered showers to areas south of Lake Ontario. High pressure then re-establishes itself across the region bringing another stretch of dry weather through at least the first half of next week. Temperatures will be near to a little above normal through Friday, before day to day warming pushes readings well above average for this weekend right through the middle of next week.
Near Term - Through Friday
Radar imagery showing scattered showers across Western NY this evening. A more coherent area of light rain will bring somewhat more widespread showers to Chautauqua County through about midnight, otherwise the rest of the showers are likely to remain disorganized and spotty. 00Z KBUF sounding showing plenty of dry air in the low levels below 850MB, with plenty of sub-cloud evaporation beneath these showers only allowing for sprinkles and light rain to be realized at the surface.
The broad upper low will continue to slowly creep eastward this evening as a secondary area of low pressure makes its way up the east coast. Weak large scale ascent and northward moisture transport with height falls/DPVA aloft as the upper low trudges across Lake Erie will support ongoing chances for a few showers across the western Southern Tier overnight, extending as far north as the Niagara Frontier at times. Probability of Precipitation remain relatively low and fairly broad-brushed overnight with light Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts at this range as the system lacks any notable jet dynamics or strong Q-vector divergence to really focus precipitation over the forecast area. Otherwise, owed to the abundance of cloud cover and weak warm advection, lows will be a bit warmer than previous nights, bottoming out in the low 50s for most with a few upper 40s across the Tug Hill and Western Adirondacks.
Center of the upper low will trudge just south of the NY/PA border Friday while gradually transferring energy to the coast. Any lingering showers across the western zones should diminish through the morning hours, though a few light showers could hang on for longer across the Finger Lakes or far eastern Lake Ontario region. With the low still in close proximity and residual low level moisture in place, expect the cloud cover to be stubborn to clear out. This combined with cool air pooling into the overhead trough will yield high temperatures across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario in the low 60s. Elsewhere on the hilltops south of Lake Ontario highs will reach the mid 60s, with low 70s across far western NY and on the lower terrain northeast of Lake Ontario.
Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday Night
Surface high pressure will drop anchor across the lower Great Lakes over the weekend. This will translate into quiet dry weather for the foreseeable future, and a day to day warm-up. Max temps will be found in the low to mid 70s Saturday, and then we can tack on a few more degrees for Sunday afternoon. Lows will be in the upper 40s in the cooler spots, to low/mid 50s Friday night, and then will moderate each night through the weekend.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Warm and dry weather holds as ridging dominates at the surface and aloft. Some guidance influenced by climo based MOS guidance starts to show low chance probability of precipitation by Thursday, but will not include even slight chance probability of precipitation at this point because with such a highly amplified pattern it typically pays to be slower in bringing in precipitation from the west. Temperatures will be well above normal during the day with highs Monday and beyond 10-15F above normal. Similar to previous forecasts, continue to aim high for max temps compared to guidance. Did undercut NBM lows slightly early in the week with center of high close by, but will not be as dry of an airmass as we've seen this week so it should not get very chilly.
There are hints in longer range guidance that the pattern may start to cool some and become more active well beyond the end of this forecast period. We'll have to wait and see how that unfolds though.
East winds on Lake Ontario will become southeast and diminish overnight, with waves gradually subsiding on the west end of the lake.
East winds will increase again on Lake Ontario Friday afternoon, but not to the extent of the past few days, with winds and waves expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, with light winds generally 10 knots or less and waves 2 feet or less.
NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories