Lake Ontario - Sodus Beach to Mexico Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming West. Mostly Cloudy Late This Morning, Then Becoming Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Friday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Feet Building To 3 To 5 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Friday Night...West Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North. A Chance Of Showers. Waves 3 To 6 Feet. Waves Occasionally Around 7 Feet. |
| Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming West 5 To 15 Knots. Mainly Clear. Waves 3 To 5 Feet Subsiding To 1 Foot Or Less. Waves Occasionally Around 6 Feet. |
| Sunday...West Winds 5 To 15 Knots. Partly To Mostly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. |
| Monday...Northwest Winds 10 Knots Or Less. Partly Cloudy. Waves 2 Feet Or Less. The Water Temperature Off Rochester Is 49 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 606am EDT Thu May 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Inserted some Probability of Precipitation east of Lake Ontario through this morning to cover the potential for some widely scattered showers. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler today with a few scattered light showers possible this morning. 2) A stronger cold front will move south across the area late Friday through Friday night with a few showers possible, followed by below average temperatures for the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler today with a few scattered light showers possible this morning. The axis of a mid level trough will push southeastward across the area through this morning. Attendant height falls/DCVA along with a northerly upslope flow and increased low-mid level moisture will bring the potential for some widely scattered/scattered light showers in tandem with the trough passage...with chances for these greatest across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes...and to a somewhat lesser extent east of Lake Ontario. Marked drying and subsidence in the wake of the trough axis will then bring a return to dry weather and increasing sunshine this afternoon...though a notably cooler airmass aloft will help keep highs largely confined to the mid 60s across the lower elevations...and to the lower 60s across the higher terrain/along the south shore of Lake Ontario. KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front will move south across the area late Friday through Friday night with a few showers possible, followed by below average temperatures for the weekend. A compact but vigorous closed low will rapidly dive southeastward across Quebec during Friday and reach the Saint Lawrence Valley by late afternoon...before pushing further southeast across New England Friday night...then offshore during Saturday. While the best forcing and moisture with this system still looks to remain largely to our east across eastern New York and New England...our area will still be subject to the passage of its trailing cold front late Friday and Friday evening. While the guidance suite continues to struggle with respect to the westward extent of any attendant showers...agree with the previous shift that the frontal passage is worth some slight chance/lower-end chance Probability of Precipitation for a few light showers across western New York...with somewhat more numerous showers expected across the North Country which will be closer to the low track. In the wake of this system...leftover moisture/cyclonic flow may allow a few spotty showers to linger into Saturday morning across the North Country...with dry weather otherwise returning as expansive Canadian high pressure and drier air builds southeastward across the Great Lakes. Otherwise the much cooler airmass following behind the low will lead to highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most areas Saturday (some 10 degrees or so below normal)...with lows Saturday night then ranging from the upper 30s across the far interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 40s along the lakeshores. This will be followed by some recovery in temps during Sunday as the airmass modifies...though temps will probably still be a little below normal. Marine Northerly winds in the 10-15 knot range will bring some chop to Lake Ontario through early this morning, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. West to west-southwesterly winds will increase Friday out ahead of another cold front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming likely on Lake Ontario, and possible across eastern Lake Erie. Winds will then quickly veer to northerly behind the cold front Friday night, before diminishing during Saturday. NOAA Buffalo NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NY...None. Marine None. |
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