Point St. George to Cape Mendocino CA from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves N 3 Ft At 6 Seconds...And S 3 Ft At 15 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 15 Kt. Waves W 4 Ft At 4 Seconds...And S 2 Ft At 15 Seconds. Chance Of Rain. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Nw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds...And W 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Waves N 8 Ft At 8 Seconds...And W 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Waves N 12 Ft At 10 Seconds...And W 5 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Waves N 13 Ft At 10 Seconds...And Nw 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Tue...N Winds 15 Kt. Waves N 7 Ft At 7 Seconds...And Nw 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Wed...N Winds 15 Kt. Waves N 7 Ft At 5 Seconds...And S 2 Ft At 16 Seconds. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Eureka CA 248pm PDT Fri April 19 2024 Synopsis Above normal afternoon temperatures will continue across the interior valleys into early next week. A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of light rain and drizzle to the North Coast on Saturday followed by breezy northerly winds on Sunday. Shallow layer of stratus has been swirling around offshore and over coastal areas of Mendocino and SW Humboldt today. Webcams have not revealed much or any dense fog, yet. The northward extent of the stratus has reached Cape Town, but light northerlies have been eroding the leading edge of the northward advance and even forcing the "stratus surge" back southward. Stratus bands may form in situ over the northern waters late tonight and spread onto the North Coast by early Sat morning as a weakening front approaches. Otherwise, variable high thin cirrus will drift over the area through the night again. A weak front associated with a transient shortwave trough will bring a push of shallow moisture and perhaps some light rain and drizzle to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties during the afternoon or early evening on Saturday. Otherwise, dry weather with some cooling of interior high temps are expected on Saturday. Breezy west to northwest winds are also expected across the inferior after frontal passage late in the day and evening, especially in channeled terrain and ridges where gusts to 30 mph are probable (75% chance per HREF) for Lake and far southern Mendocino counties. Surface high pressure will build in quickly over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and Sunday in the wake of the front. Breezy northerly winds are forecast to redeveloped over mostly coastal areas as surface pressure gradients tighten by early Sunday. HREF has over a 70% probability for gusts > 40 mph over the King Range and 50% probability for coastal SW Humboldt by 5am Sunday. Coarser NBM guidance indicates northerly winds ramping up during the day on Sunday (afternoon and evening) for lower elevations and coastal areas. Ensemble means indicate peak gusts from 25-32 mph with 75th to 90th percentile gusts to 40-50 mph. 75th-90th percentile gusts may be too high, but certainly within the realm of possibilities (50% chance) for wind prone points like around Pt St George and Cape Mendocino based on the NBM data. Interior high temperatures are forecast to rebound Sunday through Tue as a flat ridge aloft springs back up and offshore flow returns. Isolated showers are possible (20% chance) over the higher terrain of Trinity County Tuesday afternoon and evening as a 500mb shortwave trough progresses eastward toward the PAC NW. Thunder chances are much more doubtful due to dry SW flow aloft and potential for a mid level cap. For now will add a 20% chance for showers, but hold off on adding thunderstorms at this time. Potential for wider coverage and more frequent precipitation will increase mid to late next week, though probabilities for > 0.50 inch of rain in 24-hours for the western slopes of Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties are about 20% or less. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to cool down with probabilities for 75F or more no more than 30% for the warmest interior valleys of Mendocino and Lake. NBM means are close to normal (high in the 60's). Thus, it is shaping up to be cooler compared to the recent interior warmth. How fast it cools down and to what degree are still uncertain. Precipitation may occur and based on the ensemble guidance, amounts are most likely going to be light. Even light amounts may have minor impacts on outdoor plans, but timing and duration of rain or showers remain elusive and uncertain at this time. Stay tuned. DB Marine Northerlies have further weakened into the afternoon to around 12 kts over the outer zones. Light and variable flow with areas of southerly return flow will continue in the inner zones tonight. A stream of shallow coastal stratus, currently along and south of Cape Mendocino, will likely surge northward to bring opportunity for quickly dropping visibility. Seas will bottom out early Saturday afternoon at 3 to 4 feet before a sharp increase in northerlies from a passing front occurs into the early evening. NBM is still indicating 80-90% probabilities of >34 kt gusts developing downwind of Cape Mendocino early Sunday morning before expanding to the northern and southern waters by Sunday afternoon. Gale Watches are up beginning Sunday. Steep, wind driven waves and a mid- period NW swell will produce seas of 12 to 14 feet from Sunday through Monday. Uncertainty remains as to how quickly the axis of elevated winds will retreat offshore before another trough complex approaches the PNW and N CA Tuesday. /JJW .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for PZZ470. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for PZZ475. |
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